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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    I'm guessing dtconroe wants to lock in 5.4% for 2 or more years. The Fido mm rate would drop significantly if the US enters recession in 2024 or 2025 .
    That is correct--I have some cash in SNAXX which is paying a very nice interest rate, but MMs do not guarantee those rates for very long. I do not know how long I will be able to get CDs for 5.4%, but for a retired investor, that is a very attractive rate that I would be very comfortable and satisfied with that, especially when I can get a CD that pays monthly dividends. I am not recommending anyone do what I would do, but 5.4% CDs are very attractive to me for now, and that is where I would put the $100k if it was available to me now. Others can buy that Boat and I wish them well!!
    Also, I only buy nonCallable CDs.
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    @hank, ya truth re hussy. Still wonder if we didn't have all the fiscal and monetary policies in effect over the past 15 years, hussman would be the modern day peter Lynch. He might still be but as I think you stated, we should all hope to live that long .... LOL
    And Shoshy be careful running around with that bling on your wrist. Lots of gangsta types out there these days looking to rob folks, maybe better with the rubies in your sock.....
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    Don't read hussy commentary today if you hold lots of stocks etc.... you'll be investing in whiskey to steel your nerves....
    Last time I looked Hussy’s “flagship” fund was averaging -3 or -4% annually for the last 15 years. Must be some sort of a genius to manage to lose that much money!
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    5.5% 2 year cd jp Morgan chase today at fidelity, stepped in and conducted some commerce at lunchtime
    Like the idea of watches. Get outside of financial system.... you've heard me pine about high grade rubies a few years ago
    Don't read hussy commentary today if you hold lots of stocks etc.... you'll be investing in whiskey to steel your nerves....
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    Years ago we were with a group of Michigeese and Michiganders in the old bazaar in Instanbul. Some of the men were busy at a shop specializing in "knock-offs" of expensive watches. As I joined them a couple of salesmen immediately surrounded me asking what particular wonderful watch might I be interested in. Attempting to keep a straight face I asked to see what they might have in a knock-off Timex.
    The reaction, from both the salesmen and my traveling companions, was something to remember. Lots of fun.
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    I'm guessing dtconroe wants to lock in 5.4% for 2 or more years. The Fido mm rate would drop significantly if the US enters recession in 2024 or 2025 .
  • Municipal Bond Outlook
    That's a great article, @msf. Thanks. I agree with the Schwab article. In addition, there is the Medicare income adjusted premium (IRMAA) which can add another penalty of around 3% for increasing Modified Adjusted Income (MAGI) from $245,000 to $366,000. Tax-exempt income is not included in AGI, but is included in MAGI.
    Below are the Married Filing Jointly thresholds for Federal Tax based on Adjusted Gross Income and Income Adjusted Premium (IRMAA Parts A & B) based on the Modified Adjusted Gross Income which includes tax exempt income. The Net Investment Income Tax (3.8%) starts at $250,000. The big jump in the Federal Income Tax jumps from 24% to 32% at $364,200. IRMAA increases by $2,837 when one crosses the $246,000 MAGI Threshold, another $2,837 when one crosses the $306,000 MAGI Threshold, and another $2,837 when one crosses the $366,000 MAGI Threshold.
    Basis AGI MAGI
    Threshold Fed Tax Medicare NIIT
    Married Premium
    (Jointly) (Couple)
    $22,000 12% $3,958
    $89,450 22% $3,958
    $190,750 24% $3,958
    $194,000 24% $5,832
    $246,000 24% $8,669
    $250,000 24% $8,669 3.8%
    $306,000 24% $11,503 3.8%
    $364,200 32% $11,503 3.8%
    $366,000 32% $14,340 3.8%
    $462,500 35% $14,340 3.8%
    $693,750 37% $14,340 3.8%
    $750,000 37% $15,286 3.8%
    I am overweight in Traditional IRAs and have deferred Social Security Benefits in order to keep income low for a Roth Conversion and collect a higher Social Security Benefit later. Higher Roth Conversions now reduce RMDs and income taxes later. Depending upon one's goals and savings to pay taxes on a Roth Conversion, there are benefits for Roth Conversions to target AGI/MAGI between the $245,000 to $365,000 range in rough numbers.
    I have modeled my preferred plan in a spreadsheet for the next ten years and reviewed it with my CPA. This will become an annual process because there are so many assumptions. For me, it's a trade-off to pay higher taxes now with a Roth Conversion and paying lower taxes with Municipal Bonds. Leaving a tax-efficient inheritance is another factor.
    I moved from a state with no income tax to a state with income tax for better "quality of life".
  • getting into closed funds
    While Prof. Snowball's suggestions are all worth consideration, the situation is, as he wrote above, more nuanced.
    Sometimes getting a gifted share does not enable you to invest more in the fund The Artisan Funds prospectus say that
    You may open a new account in a closed Fund only if that account meets the Fund’s other criteria (for example, minimum initial investment) and ... you receive shares of the closed Fund as a gift from an existing shareholder of the Fund (additional investments generally are not permitted ..._
    A similar technique to the one for getting into closed Artisan funds (investing $250K in Artisan funds that are open) does work for getting into PRWCX. T. Rowe Price's Summit Program provides access to closed funds; to qualify one must have $250K invested at T. Rowe Price.
    Rollovers may not get you into a closed fund at T. Rowe Price if you don't already have shares in the fund. Several years ago TRP refused to let me open PRWCX in an IRA when I rolled over assets from my 401(k). But I could roll over shares I already owned in a different closed fund.
    (That differs from Vanguard; my experience there is that Vanguard won't let you open a new position even if you're just transferring shares you already own from a different account.)
    Perhaps things have changed at T. Rowe Price. Or perhaps there was something different between my situation and what Prof. Snowball was describing. I was not a new investor: my 401(k) was administered by T. Rowe Price and I had an existing IRA with TRP. I was rolling over an individual 401(k) not a vanilla defined contribution plan. My 401(k) did not allow me to open a position in PRWCX; some other defined contribution plans may.
    The point is that while all the suggestions are good, they may or may not work depending on the fund company and little quirks that can foul things up. There's no harm in trying. And being a little obstinate :-)
    P.S. Vanguard, like other families mentioned above does let investors into some of its closed funds, so long as you have enough invested with them. Here, "enough" is $1M (Flagship status).
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    Sounds like our weekend place. Didn't build it as an investment- we've had 25 years of use and pleasure out of it. With current insurance problems it may not be easy to sell that either. If we just break even, adjusted for inflation, that will be fine.
    Friends of ours got home insurance through USAA. And the wife was just the daughter of a guy who did a hitch way back when.
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    Re: boats and wealth. Many, many years ago my old man told me that if weren’t for my sailing habit I could have been rich. But sailing twice to Mexico made us rich in experiences. Just should have sold her sooner.
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    Sounds like our weekend place. Didn't build it as an investment- we've had 25 years of use and pleasure out of it. With current insurance problems it may not be easy to sell that either. If we just break even, adjusted for inflation, that will be fine.
  • the September issue of MFO is live
    Yes, in some parts of the world including here in California sand dredging has caused major damage to beaches and waterways, destabilizing adjacent land and damaging local fishing. Been going on for some years.
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    @Baseball_Fan, if you capitalize your mutual fund tickers it would be easier for people to read and review funds. Yes, shout it out :)
    I might do:
    50% PRWCX
    30% AVGE
    20% CD/treasury ladder going out 5 years.
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    On the next sizable down day I would put half in FPACX and half in JQUA and pay no attention to them for many years
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Terry Savage, who writes a finance column and has been at if for a long time, was noting, rolling tbills 3, 6 months a time with "chicken money" as she calls it...she's prolly right...
    Not sure where you are driving at, but I will let MFO posters here to decide if Warren Buffet is rationally rolling over $6 billion chicken dollars into T bills every week. @yogibb and others here considered short term T bills as risk-free instruments. Some even venture out beyond 6 months to 2-5 years. By the way, many money managers are also taking advantages of 5% yield on their cash equivalents.
    Addition: sorry that I was cranky. The biggest risk with T bills is when inflation rates exceed treasury yields. They were not attractive until the yields went up in 2022. At some point when the yield curve normalizes again, one needs to move to longer duration treasury notes.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    How far out are you going in duration wth your tbills @Sven if I may inquire? Curious as to whether we will regret NOT going out to 5, 10 years with t notes, looking backwards in later 2024? Just a few years ago, getting 4%+ over 5 years was fairly solid, no? Of course inflation might ding you bigly if you get to cute with it.
    Terry Savage, who writes a finance column and has been at if for a long time, was noting, rolling tbills 3, 6 months a time with "chicken money" as she calls it...she's prolly right...
    Personally as long as I can get 5%+, I am pushing out as far as that goes with tbills/note, (picked up some 5% 2 year notes recently as well as 1 year tbill)....also looking real close at CBLDX, Crossing Bridge....will prolly step in with 6 figure + by EOY or sooner there....
    Best Regards,
    Baseball Fan
  • the September issue of MFO is live
    I tried to sneak a lot into the publisher's letter, under the assumption that it was the end of summer and a holiday weekend and folks weren't in the mood of lots of long articles.
    In addition to Rupal Bhansali moving on (which you knew and about which I've learned no more, though I'm still working on it), I shared a list of ten things - roughly half finance, half not - that I learned in August. One thing that I learned (again) is that ARKK is a disaster for its investors, fawning press and stunning results (up and down) notwithstanding. As the drought here worsens (and many residents in Iowa move deeper and deeper into denying both that the climate is changing and that we're to blame), I've been vaguely heartened by and fascinating by the story of concrete.
    I spared folks from a completely unrelated discussion of what Roman roads last 2000 years and Davenport roads made it about five, but there were a couple cool articles on the subject - short version, start with a four foot deep trench and build the road with a series of distinct, compacted layers.

    We profiled Artisan International Explorer after an hour-long interview with the managers. It was my first time meeting Anand Vasagiri and Devesh's first time chatting with either. Devesh agrees that David Samra's underlying discipline is sound but hasn't seen enough evidence that the team will remain stable and able to execute it over time. I totally get the concern, which was heightened by the conference call tech - a weird ceiling mounted camera and mic that occasionally seemed to move on its own and provided neither ideal sound nor a close view of face, but remain positive.
    Devesh has a follow-up interview with Rakesh Bordia, the manager of the five-star Pzena EM Value in which he's now a shareholder.
    Lynn walked through both notable young ETFs by age and muni funds by type. Shadow tracked the industry, as always, with special notice of an announcement from Osterweis.
    I hope your holiday weekend is / have been / was joyful!
    David
  • New formula for evaluating funds? The PEP Ratio.
    WABC, The problem with your post....This site isn't an email forum, it's an investment discussion online forum. Valuation was the only all-caps word and the most important one. Obviously, you paid attention.
    BTW, it's about time to look at the context and stop looking for controversy.
    No controversy FD99.
    If you think tarting up the typeface makes your posts more, something, knock yourself out.
    Where you may see “aesthetic seriousness,” readers might see "pomposity" or overwrought "grandeur" a little too much for an informal place like a forum. They might see something else entirely, like shouting to grab attention. Reader's opinions will be colored by their familiarity with the writer's previous posts.
    You say, without typographical histrionics:
    I have read annually for years that EM stocks have a better value than US stocks...and it didn't seem to matter.
    In fact, at the end of 2022 many analysts and managers told us that Tech is overvalued and to buy Value stocks....and QQQ made YTD already over 42% and Value is way behind.
    Years ago on this board several claimed that Apple is another blue chip, it wasn't.
    Bottom line, valuation can be "irrational" for years.
    What do you think you have proved?
    Do you buy things without bothering to estimate, and consider, the value of them? That value does not predict the future? Nothing does. Not charts. Not momentum. Not even the Magic 8-Ball or Ouija Board.
  • New formula for evaluating funds? The PEP Ratio.
    I use all 3, bold, italic, all caps for several words.
    Back to the subject. I have read annually for years that EM stocks have a better value than US stocks...and it didn't seem to matter.
    In fact, at the end of 2022 many analysts and managers told us that Tech is overvalued and to buy Value stocks....and QQQ made YTD already over 42% and Value is way behind.
    Years ago on this board several claimed that Apple is another blue chip, it wasn't.
    Bottom line, valuation can be "irrational" for years.
  • New formula for evaluating funds? The PEP Ratio.
    The problem with VALUATION
    When people start shouting, I stop reading.

    Dinky linky
    .
    Professor Paul Luna, director of the department of typography and graphic communication at the UK’s University of Reading, told me we’ve been using caps to convey “grandeur,” “pomposity,” or “aesthetic seriousness” for thousands of years—at least since Roman emperors had monuments inscribed, in all caps, with their own heroic accomplishments. . . .
    “All-capitals provide visibility—maximum size within a given area,” said Luna. And that works online, too. “All-caps in an email looks like shouting because when someone is shouting, you’re aware of the shout, and not the nuance,” Luna told me over email. “ALL-CAPS FILL THE SPACE, so there’s an element of feeling that the message is crowding out everything else.”