Some of this has been mentioned in other threads here. What is somewhat surprising to me is how many are all starting to speak up. So, I thought this might deserve its own thread.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/03/goldman-sachs-ceo-david-solomon-warns-stock-market-drawdown-is-coming.html
-Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said AI presented opportunities but that some investors were overlooking “things you should be skeptical about.”
-Speaking at Italian Tech Week in Turin, Italy, he said a “drawdown” was likely to hit stock markets in the coming two years.
-“I think that there will be a lot of capital that’s deployed that will turn out to not deliver returns,” he said.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if in the next 12 to 24 months, we see a drawdown with respect to equity markets ...and when that happens, people won’t feel good.”
Amazon founder Jeff Bezos said Friday that artificial intelligence is currently in an “industrial bubble.”
Karim Moussalem, chief investment officer of equities at Selwood Asset Management, meanwhile, warned of “enormous risks” on the horizon for the AI trade which could rapidly unravel. “The AI trade is beginning to resemble one of the great speculative manias of market history,”
Veteran investor Leon Cooperman told CNBC that we are in the late innings of a bull market where bubbles can form — something Warren Buffett had warned about.
Most believe there is money to be made, but that the euphoria may be overblown.

From Markets A.M. newsletter by Telis Demos.
On this day in 1913, President Woodrow Wilson enshrined into law a federal income tax,
less than 20 years after it was declared unconstitutional by the U.S. Supreme Court.
He signed the act after 9 p.m. to prevent anyone from hiding assets during that day's business hours.
The tax kicked in at 1% of all earned income over $2,500 for single taxpayers
and $3,333.35 for married couples.
Note: President Wilson was rightfully concerned about tax evasion in 1913.
Today, very wealthy individuals — with the assistance of shrewd tax attorneys and cunning accountants —
can take advantage of tax loopholes to avoid paying much (on a percentage basis) in taxes.

Have you looked at China funds recently? They are flying.
Ex-China indexes were driven by the Fed TSP change to exclude China from its foreign indexes. That has crept into general investing arena too.
But the timing for ex-China funds seems poor. BTW, Vanguard suddenly quit its China business some years ago - in those old days, it promoted China exposure.

From Markets A.M. newsletter by David Wainer.
On this day in 1990, the Japanese stock market had what was then its best day on record:
The Nikkei 225 index skyrocketed 13.2%.
Investors were euphoric over rumors the Japanese government would intervene
to stop the ongoing market crash.
Unfortunately, the rally turned out to be a "dead-cat bounce," and the Nikkei soon resumed falling.
Additional Notes: The Nikkei 225 index reached a record high in December 1989.
It was February 2024 before the index closed above its prior high — more than 34 years later!
The U.S. had the "lost decade" for the S&P 500 (2000 - 2009) but the Japanese "lost" more
than three decades with the Nikkei 225.
It was not a pleasurable experience for Japanese residents who invested mostly in domestic equities.

I got burned several years ago by NAV based on models. They probably work better for Interval funds, as the Company knows ahead of time about withdrawals and can limit them, but they are still guesses.
Remember IOFAX? NAV dropped 20% overnight!
In an another OEF I owned they changed the NAV after I sold it before Settlement Date. I complained to the SEC and got the difference restored. Good luck trying that now.

Holy Grail is the term I had in mind (at least for the last 5 years) but free lunch works too. Below is direct from the article.
However, at least in the case of CCLFX, which restricts investments to private credit that is senior, secured, and backed by private equity, the risk of stale pricing is minimal, and doesn’t even exist beyond a month from an economic and statistical significance viewpoint. The takeaway is that the volatility of CCLFX is somewhat understated somewhat when looking at one-month returns. However, when looking at volatility on a quarterly, or longer, basis that is not the case. The bottom line is that CCLFX provides investors with access to the credit premium and the illiquidity premium of private credit without being concerned about the risk of stale pricing. And for investors who don’t need liquidity for at least some portion of their portfolio the illiquidity premium is as close to a free lunch as one can find. Thus, one should eat as much of it as possible!
Full Disclosure: I own shares of CCLFX.
Larry Swedroe is the author or co-author of 18 books on investing. His latest is Enrich Your Future

On the topic of private credit, no idea how the next 5 years will pan out but the past 5 have been pretty amazing. As an example, CCLFX (large player in this space) returned 10.5% with a max dd of 0.2% (yep this is not a typo)

WAPSX. IS the min initial investment really 1M?

From my limited understanding, $1m is the default setting that Yahoo places on a fund record when it can't extract a min investment from the prospectus or fact sheet. Lol, I got in at $50k over 10 years ago and I really haven't paid much attention to the metrics since. I just let it grow and focused on the growth stuff for the past 10 years. Ask your broker what the actual min is..maybe it depends on in/out of IRA.
Yeah, 2022 was awful. Should've been more proactive. Getting better with MFO. ;)

PRWCX is underperforming VWELX for various time periods 3 months to 3 years. 5 and above it has outperformed VWELX
I hold a small position in TRAIX with the hope of scaling up if this fund starts firing again. Giroux has a great long term track record.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fund-performance?s=y&sl=4VSTgvOMP3SRfjVH0g4UM5

From Markets A.M. newsletter by Jinjoo Lee.
On this day in 1981, Uncle Sam issued new 20-year Treasury bonds at a 15.78% yield,
an all-time high rate for any U.S. government issue.
Analysts expected that yields would have to go higher “to attract stronger demand.”
Yields promptly began going down and do so for the next twelve years.

According to ETF.com, Vanguard did apply for an ETF class for an active fund around 2015, but it was rejected by SEC. Don't know what the reasons were.
"When Vanguard let that patent expire in May 2023, the filings to mimic the unique structure started piling up at the SEC, which has been mum on the topic since denying Vanguard’s request to extend the ETF share classes to actively managed mutual funds nine years ago."
https://www.etf.com/sections/news/whats-holdup-etf-share-classes
FWIW, Vanguard now also has filings for ETF classes of its active funds. SEC chose DFA filing to be the model for others to follow to this time, not Vanguard (actually, VG didn't share/license its previous patent (now expired) with ANYONE).

The Week in Charts (09/27/25)
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing...
00:00 Intro
00:19 Topics
01:09 The Fed Has an Inflation Problem
06:38 A Stronger US Consumer Lifting GDP
12:42 Powell on Stock Prices: "Fairly Highly Valued"
18:02 The New Home Discount
23:27 Gold Glitters, Silver Shines
26:33 Foreign Investors Still Buying American Stocks
28:34 150 Years of Human Progress
Video
Blog

The SEC provided notice today that it intends to allow Dimensional's mutual funds to offer ETF share classes.
Dimensional initially sought SEC approval two years ago.
Vanguard's patent for mutual fund ETF share classes which applied only to index funds expired May 2023.
It may take time before these new ETF share classes from Dimensional
(and other firms that filed for exemptive relief) come to market.
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/etf-share-classes-are-go-dimensional-heres-what-investors-need-know

If Irving Fisher said many years ago that stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau, he obviously was wrong.

Because the bond market is so fragmented, active bond ETFs have been around for years, while active equity ETFs is a relatively new development.

The real reason is simple: the S&P 500 is a powerful momentum-driven index, and U.S. markets have been leading the world. That makes it very hard to beat over several decades.
Bonds, on the other hand, are far less efficient. Their performance depends heavily on interest rates, which makes them far more vulnerable.

Thought it was time for an update on tariff price impacts. In March 2025, I updated all our kitchen appliances from a local big box appliance store.
Refrigerator cost $2200. Now 6 months later $2900, same model $700 more.
Stove cost $1000. Now 6 months later $1200, same model $200 more
Dishwasher cost $1000. Now 6 months later $1100, same model $100 more.
Microwave cost $329. Now 6 months later $399, same model $70 more.
A 23.6% total price increase before taxes.
Anyone care to add their experiences, good or bad?

This is YOUR inflation.
The last CPI came at 2.9% year over year.
35 years ago I bought a side-by-side Whirlpool. It was about $600.
It lasts 25 years. I bought a new one 10 years ago for around $800.
Today, a similar one is about $1000 (https://www.lowes.com/pd/Whirlpool-24-6-cu-ft-Side-by-Side-Refrigerator-with-Ice-Maker-Fingerprint-Resistant-Stainless-Steel/1000422565)
About 10 years ago I bought a Countertop 1000 watt microwave for $100. 3 months ago I bought a similar one, for $85 (https://www.walmart.com/ip/Mainstays-1-1-Cu-ft-Countertop-Microwave-Oven-1000-Watts-Black-New/2701684169?classType=REGULAR&from=/search).
I designed a new kitchen about 25 years and didn't want microwave over the range. They are 3-4-5 times more expensive. They break more often, and they don't vent as well as a simple range hood.
==============

Sven: We notice our grocery bill has gone up 30% easily this year

See (link)
"Food prices rose faster than overall inflation. The CPI for all food increased 0.4 percent from July 2025 to August 2025. Food prices in August 2025 were 3.2 percent higher than in August 2024.
The level of food price inflation varies depending on whether the food was purchased for consumption at home or away from home:
The food-at-home (grocery store or supermarket food purchases) CPI increased 0.4 percent from July 2025 to August 2025 and was 2.7 percent higher than in August 2024.
The food-away-from-home (restaurant and other foodservice purchases) CPI increased 0.3 percent from July 2025 to August 2025 and was 3.9 percent higher than in August 2024."
====================
The usual Dems DD = dismiss + downplay everything and concentrate only on the worst.
The Dems and all their fake experts, some Nobel Prize winners, promised us that the CPI will go to the sky. It's just 2.9%.

I’ve watched the 30/70 variant (AOK) for years and considered buying it several times. Perhaps not relevant, but both got clocked pretty good in 2022. More than I’d expect on a risk / reward basis. That’s OK if you have a long term horizon. But doesn’t give me good “vibes”. Not saying your daughter shouldn’t buy AOR. Not a bad fund. But, I’d look around more. Roths are the best invention since sliced bread. I try to hold slower growing income generating assets in my Traditional IRA and go a little higher on the risk in the Roth.

I think the notion of not spending enough is aimed at only certain folks. I get it. After a lifetime of carefully watching spending, things can work out far better than expected, but increasing spending can be difficult for savers.
And what more does a person desire? A bigger house does lead to other expenses. So can buying newer more expensive vehicles. We like our neighbors, which is a big deal. Even if our house has a couple unnecessary rooms. Selling and moving can create a lot of expenses too.
I just cannot think of anything that I truly desire that I don't already have (materially). But, I won't be inconvenienced over money if I can help it. In that regard, travel comes to mind.
OTOH, if I need 1x and have 5x, should I be looking to pass on 10x in 20 years, to people whose lives will not be impacted much by a big influx of cash later in life?

Look at the last five years performance for PRWCX. It has underperformed both VWELX and VBINX. High fees and TROW’s inability to attract and retain talent in their research analysts division has led to underperforming funds. This trend will continue worsening.

I don't think we think outside the box at all in retirement. We worked hard to prepare for retirement. We built up a significant amount in our bank accounts, maximized our company retirement accounts into a significant amount, paid off all major debt, researched and selected a good Medicare Advantage Medical Plan. We have no annuitized income except for a very small monthly check my wife receives from the state of Texas, plus our Social Security payments. We live comfortably, but not extravagantly, in retirement, traveling frequently, with family and friends. We have more money in our banking accounts and IRAs now, than we did when we retired. In the last few years, we have transitioned to a preservation of principal approach, hopefully to cover future expenses. One of the things we are discussing is the possibility of selling our relatively large house and downsize to a smaller, newer and more manageable house for persons of our age, however that is tough for emotional reasons as we have a lot of fond feelings for our home.