Greatly diminished choices and longer maturities have gone away. Because of Bank holiday or a tipping point in rate expectations? Same at Fido and Vanguard?

Let's think about it.
1) Inflation is much higher than CD. You lose money.
2) High inflation most likely will go down, 1-2 years from now. This is why you can't get CD for 10 years. I see 5 years at 4.95%. Good chance, it will be higher than inflation in a few years.
3) Short term is the sweet spot at 3 months. Treasuries are better, they pay more than CD and you don't pay Fed taxes in a taxable account. It's also easier to buy big amounts. This allows you to invest later in bond funds with a good possibility to make 10+% from the bottom (maybe in already) in 12-18 months after rates will stop going up. Remember, bonds have one of the worst first 6 months in history and a good chance to recoup all their losses.
4) I don't like to lock my money for even 3 months as a bond OEF trader. I traded several times in 2022 successfully, and a good trade can come any day. MM paying over 3.7% or more is pretty good too.

What I read indicates that there will be massive amounts of bonds someone needs to buy with the increasing deficit and the fed "rolling off" their inventory with QT. They won't buy more when the bond matures, but money has to go somewhere
There is a lot of foreign selling as Governments try to defend their currancies against a strong dollar. This may ease somewhat.
Still with increased supply compared to QE for last what 10 years?, prices will drop, and yields will go up.

@Junkster- yes sir, I surely agree with DavidF. There's always room for insights from all aspects of investing, and "trading" surely qualifies. Don't be so skittish- I've enjoyed your contributions for many years.
Regards- OJ

Charles Ellis is a font of investment wisdom.
I plan to read his new book - "Figuring It Out: Sixty Years of Answering Investors' Most Important Questions."

Another follow up,
https://www.barrons.com/articles/market-losses-reduce-capital-gains-tax-51668037376?mod=past_editions
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/362/barron-november-14-2022-2
TAX STRATEGIES. Use tax-loss harvesting (TLH) this year for benefits in future years. Tax-loss CARRYFORWARDS don’t expire and can be used to offset future gains and up to $3,000/yr in ordinary income from net losses. Beware of WASH-SALE rule (to avoid +/- 30 day window for transactions). Use DOUBLE-UP strategy (buy to double position by November 29, sell the older lot on December 30, the last trading day of 2022), OR swap with something SIMILAR but not identical right away (easily possible with so many OEFs and ETFs). REINVESTING may cause small disallowances due to wash-sale, but they don’t spoil the entire TLH; one can also discontinue reinvestments to avoid this issue. With large declines in both stocks and bonds, consider TLH for all types of funds (stocks, bonds, hybrids). If you have losses in CRYPTOS, note that wash-sale rules don’t apply (but the IRS may not like immediate buys/sells). OTHER strategies: Delay/SHIFT income to lower tax years; use annual GIFTS of up to $16K/yr/person (2022), $17K/yr/person (2023) to avoid filing the Form 709 (complicated, but also doable); ROTH CONVERSIONS (immediate tax hit, but withdrawals are tax-free in retirement and no RMDs); CHARITABLE contributions.

Nov 12th Episode

As the markets fluctuate around us, how much should investors change?
This week’s guest has his own historical perspective on that question because he has lived through a momentous evolution in the markets. He is Charles Ellis, whose storied career started on Wall Street in 1963 after graduating from the Harvard Business School. He was a skeptical analyst during the go-go years of the 60s and founded Greenwich Associates, the top Wall Street consulting firm to major investment firms, institutions, and governments.
He was an influential board member of Yale’s endowment advising its legendary head, David Swensen. He’s taught advanced investment courses at both Yale and Harvard. And he has authored 20 investment books, including the classic, Winning the Loser’s Game, now in its 8th edition, and the recently published Figuring It Out: Sixty Years of Answering Investors’ Most Important Questions, which we will discuss in this week’s exclusive TV interview.
In the first of a two-part interview, Ellis will discuss the most significant changes that have occurred in the markets and what they mean for investors.

Panic buying to lock in attractive rates for next 2-5 years;another version of Fear Of Missing Out !

"a tipping point in rate expectations?"
That's got my vote. There's a massive number of older investors out there who have been starved for decent fixed income rates for many years now. They, like me, have been watching this interest rate environment with great attention.
There's speculation, based on only one month's report, that the FED may now slow down or even pause interest rate increases. So that was the signal to BUY NOW!!!
And they did. The shelves are now empty of the best stuff.
Personally, I'm not at all impressed by that one inflation report, but we shall see.
Add: I was quite surprised to see the dramatic change in the offerings at Schwab between the morning yesterday when I bought, and the late afternoon. Wow.

Don't forget to re-invest the 4.48% dividend each month.
4.4 share of McDonald's purchased at its IPO (1965):
if-you-had-invested-100-in-mcdonalds-ipo-heres-how

The math isn't as simple as taking the stock's return since the IPO date. First, we have to account for the many stock splits that McDonald's has announced over the years. A $100 investment would have yielded you 4.4 shares based on the initial price of $22.50, but McDonald's has performed 12 stock splits that cumulatively expanded share counts by a factor of 729. In other words, your initial 4.4-share holding would have grown to 3,208 shares over the decades. Based on that expanded share total, we can determine the value of your IPO investment, which would be $622,352 based on McDonald's recent closing price in early December 2019 of $194 per share.
There's another element that's at least as important as those stock split adjustments, and that's dividends. McDonald's is a Dividend Aristocrat, having paid and increased its dividend in each of the last 39 years. Dividend reinvestment is a fantastic way to supercharge your returns over long time frames, and that phenomenon is certainly true in this case.

Maybe we need to get our great grand kids to consider this strategy since they may have the time to allow for the necessary compounding.
That was a very strong one day jump...nice feeling!

Nice positive article by Jeff Kosnett in current ( Dec 22) Kiplingers Personal Finance magazine page 25, of the above fund families. Very complimentary view of David Sherman the manager who posts here. I have owned RPHIX since it was first reviewed here many years ago and CBLDX for the past year or so with commendable results.

Mortgage rates dropped too. Call me skeptical but I'm not sure today's CPI necessarily constitutes a trend, though it would be nice if it did. I'd be delighted with a few more 5% up days: a couple years' worth of CD returns just like that!

@JD_co, I started a new discussion on October’s CPI #.
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/60263/october-inflation-report-price-pressures-show-signs-of-cooling#latest
Thanks for the heads up news on CD rates that react quickly. Are you looking for something (non-callable) beyond 2-5 years?

For my part, I have never understood crypto. A friend of mine made enough dough on it a few years ago to buy his daughter a house, saying to me, “It’s just a currency.” However, to read the above contributions I had to resort to Google to translate the acronyms/initials into everyday lingo. Must be my age.

For me, a question that will become very relevant in 2023, is a prediction of where CD rates will settle at. If we do not experience a major, or prolonged recession, I am guessing they will settle somewhat higher, than where they are at the end of 2022--maybe around 5% to 6% for shorter term rates. After that, the question will arise as to the attractiveness of CDs on a longer term investing option, than various categories of bonds and equities. At least for a significant percentage of retired investors, CDs may take away a large amount of money, that use to go into various categories of bond and equities, because CDs were too low to produce meaningul income. When all the dust starts settling, I suspect we will have a much different set of market conditions than what we have had over the last 15 to 20 years, with low to zero interest rates, and tons of government spending. Of course, if we go into a major recession, it seems likely that the government will have to lower interest rates, and it is hard to guess where that might settle.

Instead of being selective for TLH, it is better to maximize TLH and not let the opportunity slip by. Yes, some of the losses would be used up from gains in those (and other) positions when markets rebound. In some cases, different things may have better rebound potential (elevator-down may be different than elevator-up). Bottomline is that with TLH at max, the taxable a/c become tax-free account for many years to come.

Now that you mention it I recall taking a flyer in MJ a couple of years ago. Went in, kept it a month or so, did real good, got out. Haven't given it a thought since then.

The safest bet in the investing universe is investing in ETFMG 2X Daily Inverse Alternative Harvest ETF (MJIN), up 37% YTD. It is supposed to return twice the inverse of the ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ, as in "Mary Jane"). MJ is in the midst of its fifth consecutive year of double-digit losses, and still has $380 million in AUM.
MJIN is up 80% since its 2021 launch, but has under $1 million in AUM. So, it's dead. MJ is down 67% since its launch seven years ago, and yet zombies on.
Weird.

@Old_Joe @JD_co
I share your dismay with bond funds, as they have produced a miserable return and lost principal. A year or two ago, no one seemed to believe the old adage that the return of a bond or a bond fund is essentially it's yield. With yields of 1% in 2019 etc, it is obvious many people are going to be hurt.
Buying short term bonds now ensures you get your money back, although you have an opportunity cost and do not equal inflation if rates rise substantially.
A "barbell" approach makes the most sense to me, aiming to buy longer term bonds for the expected drop in rates in 5 years or less.
If hyperinflation arrives, only cash will prosper, making several years living expenses essential to keep in cash.
One of the smartest people I have run across writing about interest rates and bonds is Harvey Bassman, with a monthly report. He invented PFIX, which is up 86% this year as bet on rising rates, and for bond fund protection.
He just doubled down on agency bonds for a variety of reasons all explained in this comprehensive discussion. The math is a bit intimidating but worth working at
https://www.convexitymaven.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Convexity-Maven-Deep-Dive-MBS.pdf

OPTIONS. NOVEMBER 29 (Tuesday) is the last day this year to DOUBLE-UP for tax-loss harvesting (TLH) this year. The doubling up can be by buying a fallen stock or cheaper options by 11/29/22 and then selling the older lot(s) by DECEMBER 30 (Friday), the last trading day of this year. AXP is used as an example. (Alternate is to immediately swap into something similar but not identical) (Tax-losses for individuals don’t expire and can be carried forward for years to offset future gains and up to $3K/yr in ordinary income)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/tax-loss-stocks-options-51667426293?mod=past_editions
LINK1
REVIEW. Wash sale rules don’t apply to CRYPTOS (as they are considered property). Rules may be changed by the Congress in future. (Note – Wash sale disallows loss if a security or its options are traded within +/- 30 days)
ROTH CONVERSIONS are attractive tax-wise when the markets are down; taxes on conversions should be paid from taxable funds. Other benefits of Roth IRAs include no RMDs; TAX-FREE withdrawals in retirement (some limitations apply); tax benefits carry over to INHERITED Roth IRAs but now, most non-spouses must drain the Roth IRA within 10 years (spouses can retitle as their own). Seniors beware of Medicare IRMAA in conversion planning. This is by @LewisBraham.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/roth-ira-conversions-tax-move-51667342555?mod=past_editions
LINK2

Lots of guesswork on this thread, based on when market conditions will become supportive of bond oefs or equities in 2023. My guess is that this market will flounder around for most, if not all, of 2023, with the Feds waiting for some sign that inflation has stabilized. That may take a long time, as increased interest rates are not quickly changing inflationary conditions. Much of our infkation was because of supply problems from China, who has been struggling with Covid control--who knows when that might settle down and create large scale exports to the US, without Covid interruptions. Another major contributor is Oil supplies, largely resulting from Russian Oil issues and the Ukraine war--I don't see that ending anytime soon. Then you can get into what each country has done economically that has created "worldwide" inflation. Maybe Biden approved spending bills is contributing to this, but many of those bills will take a long period of implementation to create spending related issues. Maybe Trump taking out huge amounts of income, with his tax relief act for wealthy individuals and corporations, has something to do with the ballooning deficit problems during his term. Who knows what any, or all, of this will be under control, and inflation stabilizes. Will we enter into a recession?--most think we will, at least a mild recession, but all of that is pure speculation.
I personally think all of this will more slowly playout, and we will see the market start having some increased volatility, as we jump on every blimp as if that is a surefiire sign we have everything under control. We are in the midst of changing a large number of years of low to zero interest rates, years and years of government stimulation, and I just don't think this is a short term correction period, that will change all of that.