1. Has the 10 year treasury peaked at 3.48% over the next 2 years? yes or no and why?
2. Are we resting in a commodity super cycle over the next 5 years?

onetrust is a popular cookie consent management tool. While OT provides templates and language ootb, customers can customize how the cookie choices are presented to end users.
Unfortunately there isn't any standardized way in which publishers present consent choices to consumers. Some publishers are genuine in giving true choice to the consumer, many are just checking a box and some unfortunately intentionally play word smith games intended to confuse rather than illuminate.
The goal of many publishers is pretty obvious -- get the consumer to give up and click on the Accept All button. The entire cookie choice system is not inherently stable because there are variations in the controls presented, words used and differences in the UX as you saw. Very difficult if not near impossible to learn a pattern on one site and universally apply it everywhere. And since browser history and settings have to be periodically cleaned due to malfunctioning sites, cookie choice isn't a set it and forget it type op.
Which is why most users simply click Accept All and move on. Which pretty much defeats the entire edifice of giving choice to the consumer.
Regulators don't live in the real world. In one of my prior jobs (managing a custom web app used by a high volume call center) there was such a staggeringly high volume of consumers calling in for extremely basic browser issues (easily a third or more of the calls) that one couldn't really help wonder how effective the rocket science of cookie choice really was. And these calls had absolutely nothing to do with the functionality of the web app itself. These were literally the level of "Is your computer powered on" type questions.
So sometimes when you call tech support of a service provider, the agent will walk you through some really silly basic stuff -- you often wonder if the company created those support scripts 30 years back and forgot to update them for modern times You start wondering why the scripts are catering to the lowest common denominator which might be less than 1%. I've seen the other side and now know that the LCD is a lot larger than 1%.

On a related note, GDPR and cookie choices is all good stuff but the tech cos, publishers and advertisers are light years ahead of the regulations.
As long as there are eyeballs on the web consuming any kind of web content, advertisers and tech cos will find ways to deliver personalized ads. The business model of the internet as currently structured does not work without personal ads.
I don't like the Nike shoe following me everywhere so this isn't a defense of the system, just stating the facts here.

Nice @LewisBraham. I’m very worried about many workers dependent on 401-K savings for what could be 20, 30 or even 40 years of retirement. I’m fortunate to have a DB pension. But those are now few and far between. And, when it comes to managing / investing a 401-K, those who post on this forum possess better than average investment acumen. But in general few wage earners would appear equipped to manage a small fortune successfully and time the withdrawals so as to last a lifetime.
Preventing workers from “borrowing” against their 401-K during their working years might be a start. Some retire with little if any left invested for growth. Perhaps limiting withdrawals to a set percentage or an amount that rises incrementally during retirement would help. As far as target-date funds go … the jury is still out on whether they’re the best approach as the default option. I know a few persons in their mid-60s who have already exhausted 100% of the money they contributed during 25-30 year careers. Suddenly they see their rent, fuel and food costs rising sharply. It’s really sad to witness. Maybe our politicians could stop throwing brickbats at one another long enough to address problems like this one.

I thought this was a pretty good read from Allison Schrager. Some interesting points regarding Fed policy and action that has impacted the economy and the market.

Getting rid of risk is the biggest risk. It seems like every time something bad happens in the economy we decide we need policies to keep it from ever happening again. And sometimes that is wise, say if a bad recession or stock market crash reveals some crazy distortion or externality that needs to be eliminated. But often, we tend to try to eliminate any bad thing.

On the Housing Market:

Now, the market is weird—sales down, prices up, and frozen in some places. And I think it will be screwy for a while because no one who got a cheap mortgage can afford to move. And the MBS market will be weird because no one will refinance either, so the duration of these securities is totally unpredictable.
and,
the Fed buying the entire MBS market in the middle of a housing boom?! That’s crazy, and it did not eliminate risk—it only created more.

On "nudging" the workforce into Target Date Funds:

nudging did have a big impact on investing. Before nudging, people kept their portfolio allocations pretty constant as they aged or kept their money in cash. But automatically enrolling people in target date funds (TDFs) means more people now own stock and move into bonds as they age.
Great. But the problem with TDFs is they don’t help people spend in retirement, and that is the whole point. And while I agree people should move into bonds as they age—because of lifecycle finance, not because a shorter time in markets is riskier—TDFs move people into the wrong kind of bonds. They are mostly in short-duration bonds (less than five years), while the duration of your future spending at retirement is more like 12 years. This leaves people exposed to interest rate, market, and inflation risks.
Nudging is not enough; you need good defaults too. And in a changing-rate, high-inflation environment, we’ll start to see the costs of TDFs’ shortcomings.

On Nepotism:

I meet a lot of people who do some unusual jobs: Sex workers, bounty hunters, mob hitmen, horse inseminators, pensions actuaries—you name it. And the first thing I always ask them is how they got into this line of work. And nine times out of 10, I hear, “My father.”

Article Link:
allisonschrager-helicopter-fed

One of the better articles I've read in a long time.
Summary
° Investing is hard.
° After 20 years, I've made countless mistakes.
° My journey improved through a wide range of epiphanies over time.
° I've discovered along the way what I call investing "secrets."
° I hope sharing them can improve your journey.
ARTICLE at SeekingAlpha

Thanks to everyone for your posts and for your suggestions above. Greatly appreciate it. I spent the weekend analyzing a number of funds and Virtus KAR Small Cap core seems to have the best risk reward stats in the small cap space. It's a Great Owl and also honor roll fund. To me the things that appeal are that it had a MaxDD of 18.3% back in March of 2020 and this year through end of June of that MaxDD was 15.7%. That compares quite favorably to other funds in the space and gives it a low risk rating on Morningstar. Also Beta is only .82. Combine that with top % decile performance in the past 1, 3, 5, 10, and 15 years. I also like the fact that the fund manager has conviction behind his picks with a concentrated fund. At any rate, I plan to purchase the fund. Thanks again for contributing. If anyone else has been following this particular fund, I'd love to hear your thoughts.

Fido has had Treasury auto-rolls for a long time. Schwab started them a couple of years ago. VG may have to catch up.

Renewable energy is the cover story in the current Barron's. LINK1 LINK2
COVER STORY, “Clean Energy’s Future Has Arrived/6 Stocks to Play the Rush for Renewable ENERGY”. AES, BE, FCX, LG Energy (S Korea), PLUG, RUN, etc; ETF TAN
TRANSITION from wood to coal took200 years, from coal to oil 100 years, but that from fossil fuels to RENEWABLES (solar, wind, batteries, hydrogen) to be in only a few years? Global renewable power was 29% in 2020, and by 2030, may be 60% in Europe, 38% in the US, 38% in China. Both the US and Europe, each, are adding 30 GW of renewable power capacity now and that may be 80 GW/yr by 2030. There are transition TAX CREDITS/INCENTIVES everywhere. Russia-Ukraine war has set back some current efforts (coal has come back and natural-gas is scarce) but has accelerated the push for future transitions. Europe has committed $200 billion, the US Inflation Reduction Act will have $370 billion, and private investments will kick in $1.2 trillion. This may be the end of boom-and-bust energy cycles. Many countries have NET-ZERO carbon emission goals by 2050+. However, be very selective on companies in the renewable energy area. Besides the companies mentioned earlier, other beneficiaries may include VWDRY, NLLSF, XOM, CVX (old energy companies won’t be sitting still).

Bringing this discussion back up for everyone. I would really value hearing what everyone's favorite small cap funds are. WAMCX was my primary holding in small cap for several years but it got crushed in the market selloff over the last year. I've been reading up on NEAGX which @BenWP kindly suggested. All suggestions are welcome. I've been pretty much out of small cap for about a year now and looking to add back in. Thanks gang!

I have been very happy with RWJ. I use CSB for dividends. PSCC has been interesting.
I have some of the more generic index funds that I plan to ditch when the time is right.

Bringing this discussion back up for everyone. I would really value hearing what everyone's favorite small cap funds are. WAMCX was my primary holding in small cap for several years but it got crushed in the market selloff over the last year. I've been reading up on NEAGX which @BenWP kindly suggested. All suggestions are welcome. I've been pretty much out of small cap for about a year now and looking to add back in. Thanks gang!

I own VTMSX in my taxable account.
The fund's benchmark is the S&P 600 and its holdings are very similar to the index.
VTMSX managers strive to improve tax efficiency for the fund.

Bringing this discussion back up for everyone. I would really value hearing what everyone's favorite small cap funds are. WAMCX was my primary holding in small cap for several years but it got crushed in the market selloff over the last year. I've been reading up on NEAGX which @BenWP kindly suggested. All suggestions are welcome. I've been pretty much out of small cap for about a year now and looking to add back in. Thanks gang!

Strategic Petroleum Reserve
From: Fossil Energy and Carbon Management
Excerpts from that site:

SPR Quick Facts
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is a U.S. Government complex of four sites with deep underground storage caverns created in salt domes along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coasts.
Highest inventory - The SPR was filled to its then 727 million barrel authorized storage capacity on December 27, 2009; the inventory of 726.6 million barrels was the highest ever held in the SPR.
Previous Inventory Milestones
2008. Prior to Hurricane Gustav coming ashore on September 1, 2008, the SPR had reached 707.21 million barrels, the highest level ever held up until that date. A series of emergency exchanges conducted after Hurricane Gustav, followed shortly thereafter by Hurricane Ike, reduced the level by 5.4 million barrels.
2005. Prior to the 2008 hurricane releases, the former record had been reached in late August 2005, just days before Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf Coast. Hurricane Katrina emergency releases of both crude oil sales and exchanges (loans) totaled 20.8 million barrels.
1977. First oil was delivered to the newly constructed SPR, 412,000 barrels of light sweet crude.
Current authorized storage capacity - 714 million barrels
Fill status - The SPR completed fill on December 27, 2009 with a cargo that arrived and began to unload on Christmas Day. The cargo was 493,000 barrels of Saharan Blend, a light sweet crude that was delivered to the Bryan Mound site. A sale and drawdown in 2011 reduced the inventory to 695.9 million barrels.
Current days of import protection in SPR - At the end of CY 2021 (as of December 31, 2021), the SPR’s crude oil inventory was 594.7 MMbbl. This is equivalent to approximately 1,206 days of supply of total U.S. petroleum net imports.
International Energy Agency requirement - 90 days of import protection (both public and private stocks). In past years, the United States has met its commitment with a combination of SPR stocks and industry stocks. The days of import protection may vary based on actual net U.S. petroleum imports and the inventory level of the SPR.
Average price paid for oil in the Reserve - $29.70 per barrel

Drawdown Capability
Maximum nominal drawdown capability - 4.4 million barrels per day
Time for oil to enter U.S. market - 13 days from Presidential decision
Investment to date - About $25.7 billion ($5 billion for facilities; $20.7 billion for crude oil).

With respect to sweet corn, the prices are indeed much higher than in previous years. The market we use for meat and a few other products is noted for good quality but very high prices: sweet corn the other day was $1.29 PER EAR!!!
For contrast, the sweet corn from the Safeway chain is locally grown, consistently excellent quality, and typically 50¢ per ear, with frequent sales of 3/$1.00. Over the July 4th weekend they really had a special: 10¢ per ear- limit of 6 ears.
It pays to shop around, which is very easy using InstaCart. Yes, InstaCart's prices are a little high, but since we're both over 80, avoiding Covid and not carrying heavy grocery bags it's worth it. We typically source groceries from 3 or 4 different stores, including Costco.

I'm not too worried about THIS one. Famous last words, eh?
All those years ago, it was an excessively, superfluously, ridiculously STOOPID idea to make the US Post Office a semi-private company. If the P.O. OWNED its buildings, how much less would the taxpayer be responsible for? Not only with the price of postage stamps, but salaries and pensions and everything else???????? However, since the Postal Service LEASES properties from other owners, I suppose that makes ME a part-owner, too. Congratulate me. Or curse at me. You choose.
https://postalrealtytrust.com/
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/pstl/quote
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/PSTL
https://www.wallstreetzen.com/stocks/us/nyse/pstl/stock-forecast
https://www.barrons.com/market-data/stocks/pstl/research-ratings?mod=quotes#subnav
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/PSTL/financials

Every fund/ETF company is jumping on the "Climate Change " bandwagon, but I think there is a good case to make for active management here, as the technology is rapidly changing and sophisticated engineers and mangers can add a lot of value by knowing what may work and may not. Most ETFs are based on "indexes" that in some cases, the companies create themselves, hardly active management. GM and Ford may well be the ultimate winners of the electric vehicle race, but neither are in most "Green" ETFs based on these indices, only TSLA.
I ( or my kids IRAs) have had positions in TAN LIT PBD PHO ( water) and FCX ( Copper) for years. My son wanted only clean energy and "green" investments so even with the recent "swoon" some of his ETFs are up 250% in the last eight years since we started his accounts.
I recently spent a fair amount of time looking for actively managed funds in "climate change" and found several interesting ideas. It is hard to search for "climate Change" as it is not a fund category that I am aware of, but M* classifies most funds as " natural resources" and you can skim their names pretty quickly. Another way is to look for concentrated positions in some of the usual companies, or other funds that hold significant positions in common with some of the bigger inaccessible funds like GCCHX.
Most funds are only recently organized, but NALFX has a long track record. GMOs Climate Change Fund GCCHX has been in business since 2017 and provides a good comparison, although it has a $5,000,000 minimum. ( Interestingly NALFX beats it with a bit more volatility).
Most are less than a year old.
I nibbled also at RKCIX ( Rockefeller management trying to make up for JD's sins), and GCEBX ( has a bit of an income focus so is less volatile) and NETZ (an ETF run by "Engine no 1, the group that forced XOM to the climate change table).
Other things to think about are materials that will go up in price as demand increases like rare earths (REMX) and "Green minerals" ( GMET). Huge quantities of Cobalt, etc will be needed to transition to carbon neutral. Carbon credits are another idea (KRBN), as is timberland ( hard to find for individuals)
I was thinking of putting this together in a Commentary piece, but my skills are limited to typing so I dumped a lot of these ideas into just a word document.

Hello @Catch22 - like you I’ve been curious about the clean/renewable energy sector and have watched it for some time. On Monday, purchased less than a toe hold in -TAN, ICLN, QCLN, and PBW. Yes, there’s quite a bit of overlap. Still there’s a small cap, mid cap, and one with a larger percentage to international exposure (been watching Vestas for years) and of course the solar focus.

Hi catch,
This may or may not be of help but I have traded in and out of both ICLN and TAN over the past two years depending on the appeal of of 'clean energy' within the energy sector. I currently hold 3 individual equities in the solar realm and have held them well over 2 years. I hope that you enjoy rollercoasters.

Yes, a thoughtful opine by LB. I’m under the impression fees have been falling for individual investors, however, for years. (Doesn’t negate Lewis’ point.) I recall at work in the early 70s the original 2 options in our 403-B were either to invest in an expensive annuity or buy from a sole rep (advisor) selling Templeton products. He promised a great deal at a group discount having a “low” 4.17% front load. (Actually they began charging me a 7% load until I did the math and called them on it.) But in general, the front load was much more prevalent during the earlier days.
I’m for low fees if it doesn’t impact the provider’s quality of research and management - or service. Brings up a related question: Is the notable deterioration in TRP’s customer service (and some others as well) at least partially a consequence of progressive fee cutting over the past 3 or 4 decades? I suspect not since their AUM has also multiplied by several factors. Yet, one is left with only a shred of the service we’d come to expect from years past.
Yes, I understand LB’s point that there has been one fee structure for the monied class and a different one for individuals. I’m not grieving for the providers either. Like Twain, however, rumors of their death may prove premature.

Figures. They do not want to alienate anyone. My exit from Matthews was after a dreadful experience with one of the fund managers or team members on the phone, after an expected dividend simply did not happen. (MAPIX.) That was a handful of years ago, now. In answer to my question, he READ a PREPARED statement. I'm sure I was not the first one to call and inquire about WTF happened.... I thought (and I SAID to him:) "Why would you READ to me from a script? It sounds like you're reading to me from a script." And he answered: "Yes, I AM reading to you from a script." And I said: "why don't you just talk to me like a human being?" THAT'S when he got angry, and told me I could sell my shares if I wanted to do it. I did.