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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Fairholme's Public Conference Call Today - Summary
    Speaking of Sears, CNBC ran a story today. Different financial guru, similar story. Reading the comments, nobody believes the story.
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/102390278?__source=yahoo|finance|headline|headline|story&par=yahoo&doc=102390278
  • Why Does Bill Gross Have A Financial Advisor?
    FYI: The Wall Street Journal recently shared an interesting piece of news about Bill Gross’s new fund with Janus Capital. Investors poured $1.1 billion, an important threshold for attracting institutional clients, into his brand new unconstrained bond fund. That’s a pretty decent haul, but the real scoop here was that more than $700 million of those inflows came from the same Morgan Stanley office in California. And it just so happens that this is the office that one of Gross’s financial advisors works.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://awealthofcommonsense.com/bill-gross-financial-advisor/
  • Greek Debt Worries Send Europe ETFs On Late-Day Slide
    Coming Tomorrow
    ECB cancels soft treatment of Greek debt in warning to Athens
    BY JOHN O'DONNELL AND JAN STRUPCZEWSKI
    FRANKFURT/BRUSSELS Wed Feb 4, 2015 7:18pm EST
    However a document prepared by Germany for a meeting of EU finance officials on Thursday made clear Berlin want Athens to go back on promises to raise the minimum wage, halt unpopular sales of national assets, rehire fired public sector workers and reinstate a Christmas bonus for poor pensioners.
    "The Eurogroup needs a clear and front-loaded commitment by Greece to ensure full implementation of key reform measures necessary to keep the program on track," the document, seen by Reuters, said in reference to euro zone finance ministers.
    "The aim is the perpetuation of the agreed reform agenda (no roll back of measures), covering major areas as the revenue administration, taxation, public financial management, privatization, public administration, health care, pensions, social welfare, education and the fight against corruption."
    The new Greek leaders have had a cool reception even in left-leaning countries such as France and Italy which Athens had hoped would support its case for debt relief.
    French President Francois Hollande said the euro zone's rules applied to everyone.
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/05/us-eurozone-greece-idUSKBN0L81FH20150205
  • The Closing Bell: U.S. Stocks Turn Lower In Final Minutes On Greece News
    Euro and European stock ETFs head south as ECB pulls plug on Greek debt
    Feb 4 2015, 16:01 ET | By: Stephen Alpher, SA News Editor
    The ECB pulled its waiver which previously had allowed Greek sovereign paper to be used as borrowing collateral despite its sorry credit status. GREK -10.4%, NBG -7.1% in the regular session.
    ...withdrew a waiver which had allowed the use of Greek government paper as collateral for borrowing despite its low credit rating.
    European markets are closed, but the Stoxx 50 ETF (FEZ -2.1%) - trading in New York - takes a tumble. Others of note: Spain (EWP -2.7%), Italy (EWI -2.6%), France (EWQ -1.8%), Germany (EWG -1.6%), U.K. (EWU -0.9%)
    http://seekingalpha.com/news/2272666-euro-and-european-stock-etfs-head-south-as-ecb-pulls-plug-on-greek-debt
    Earlier
    Turkey tumbles as government takes over Bank Asya
    Feb 4 2015, 12:38 ET | By: Stephen Alpher, SA News Editor
    ..(it's)about preventing the lender's failure, while others hurl accusations of political meddling."This operation is very much linked to a personal grudge and it goes down very badly with investor communities
    http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TUR
    @catch22 A couple of week's ago I posted a couple of reads from Foreign Policy, here is another with a more populist/Keynesian bent.
    ARGUMENT
    Welcome to the Backlash Era, Europe
    From Greece to Spain to France, radical parties are making gains. And the Eurocrats have no one to blame but themselves.BY PHILIPPE LEGRAIN FEBRUARY 3, 2015 Philippe Legrain, who was economic advisor to the president of the European Commission from 2011 to 2014, is a visiting senior fellow at the London School of Economics’
    Podemos (the party’s name means “We Can” in Spanish) filled the streets of Madrid on Jan. 31 to protest against austerity, crushing debts, and the country’s corrupt political system — and demand change. The demonstrators don’t represent a fringe group, either. Podemos is leading in the polls, ahead of both the mainstream center-left and center-right parties in elections that will be held by the end of the year.
    But the likes of Podemos are also right about important things. At a time when households, companies, and banks are all trying to reduce their debts at once, austerity leads to stagnation and suffering, not “stability,” as eurozone leaders claim. Budget cuts and tax increases have often fallen on the poor and vulnerable, not the politically connected rich. The political class in many countries is corrupt and in the pockets of vested interests, not least the banks.
    More broadly, it is neither feasible nor fair for debtors to bear the full costs of the financial crisis. For every reckless borrower there is a reckless lender. In the eurozone’s case, those were primarily German and French banks, which lent vast sums to southern Europe, both directly and via local banks. While the bailouts of Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain are portrayed as gestures of EU solidarity, they were in fact covert bailouts of those foreign banks that would otherwise have suffered huge losses on their reckless lending. Southern Europe’s huge debt burden — primarily private in Spain, mostly public in Greece — is stifling the economy and is unpayable in full.
    Outside the eurozone, many sensible people of all stripes would agree with it. The tragedy of the eurozone is that the policy establishment in Brussels and national elites are destroying political support for the European project by advancing Germany’s selfish and destructive agenda as a creditor. With luck, they will change course before it is too late. After all, while Syriza and Podemos want to make the eurozone fairer, the far right wants to destroy the EU altogether. Europe urgently needs mainstream alternatives to Merkelism — or it risks a President Le Pen.
    http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/02/03/welcome-to-the-backlash-era-europe-podemos-syriza-elections/
  • Barry Ritholtz: The Unloved Treasury Rally
    FYI: Some day interest rates will go up. Until then the Treasury bears are missing one of the greatest bond rallies in history.” -- Jim Bianco, Bianco Research
    Since 2015 began, everyone has been fixated on the U.S. dollar and oil prices. I want to direct your attention to what may be the greatest show now playing in financial markets: The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-02-04/the-unloved-treasury-rally
    Enlarged Graphic: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/total-30-year-return.jpg
  • What Are Your Favorite Fixed Income Investments?
    @Mona: PDI has recently suffered from the non-investment grade spread widening (as did all HY), but also from being hedged duration - as long treasuries ripped. Pure play non-agencies (like DMO) had somewhat better NAV performance.
    Do contribute! Such give-take discussions are a breath of fresh air amid a bombardment of financial spam.
    @davidmoran: I had a different handle during the fundalarm reign, but it was too short to be transferred here, hence this one - came naturally. At least I don't post under different handles as some here. No, no special nomination or any other insider privilege.
  • Fairholme's Public Conference Call Today - Summary
    Berkowitz has proven himself an impressive and intelligent investor overall, but I think where things ran into significant trouble was after the financial crisis. Fairholme has always run a concentrated portfolio, but it got - I think - concentrated to the point of absurdity, with nearly half the portfolio in AIG. The bet on St Joe was matched on the opposite side by a notable short position by David Einhorn, who - so far - has been proven right. I believe Einhorn was still short it recently.
    The Sears story? I've been a vocal opponent of the long story, as well and have gone into reasoning countless times before. Fairholme was buying Sears above $100. Is there more value in Sears than the current stock price? Perhaps, but there's no way the stock will see $100+. There's just way too much retail real estate, with Sears and tons of other retailers looking to offload real estate into a buyer's market. The REIT spin-off? No thanks and I just don't see the demand being there.
    I really am starting to think a group of managers got sucked into the Eddie Lampert story ("It's the next Berkshire!") and are now finding out it wasn't what they thought. If it was such a tremendous story, the market wouldn't seem to disagree so much and for so long. Yeah yeah, ignore the crowds - but sometimes the crowds are right.
    The thing that continues to get me was a Kiplinger's article with Berkowitz in 2009 where he talked about if he doesn't understand something, he walks away in reference to things like AIG's derivatives. Then shortly after he loads up?
    There's also the Fannie/Freddie bet that's gone sour although he continues to fight the government. Good luck with that.
    Financials have done (at least at last glance) worse than energy this year, which hasn't helped BAC/AIG.
    And yes, Biotech has beaten a lot of things (and I think it probably will continue to do well and now it's starting to pay dividends (Gilead announcing their first dividend yesterday, Amgen increasing dividend with next payout.) I certainly see more tailwinds then headwinds for healthcare in general going forward.
    As for Fairholme:
    "Believes current shareholders know what to expect and are in it for the long term, five years or more."
    LOL. They'll run to something else if things don't get any better without a second thought.
  • What Are Your Favorite Fixed Income Investments?
    >> I am splitting hairs here.
    Oh, no, I think you have got it, thanks, and Mona provided current detail. I was not making any other argument; they do have different holdings. At the moment. ( I knew their prospectuses, as I help write and edit such as a financial freelancer.) Their similar objective may mean that those current holdings and approaches will modulate down the road, however, with conditions. As they should. Your point is well-taken about company style. I was speaking about them at a high level, and only that, and again emphasize that there are many ways, which they can flexibly choose and combine, to achieve their pretty similar objectives.
  • Professor Dave's Monthly Missive
    Hi Old Joe,
    Thank you for the tip on Peter L. Bernstein’s “The Power of Gold” book. I fully trust your favorable endorsement.
    I’m embarrassed to admit that I’ve owned a paperback copy of the book for years, yet never opened its cover. I bought it as part of a 3-volume set that included his “Capital Ideas” and “Against the Gods” works. I did read these titles. Later, he wrote numerous other financial books; I have read several of them. All are engaging and all act as excellent teachers.
    Both referenced works are superb. I learned much about the financial world and investing from both of them. Today, I’m puzzled why I did not finish the trilogy. Perhaps I had no interest in gold at that time; not much has changed in the intervening years. But I accept your counsel and will put Bernstein’s Gold book on my reading list.
    Thanks for your recommendation, and your advice to other MFO participants. Bernstein was a treasure and his legacy lives in this outstanding three volume set. All investors miss his wisdom, his clarity, and his wit.
    Best Wishes.
  • Frontier Markets
    I'm a believer in frontier markets because I believe we will see better growth rates and I think there's a lot of room for businesses to grow, especially ones with more and more access to foreign capital, as the middle class grows substantially.
    MFMPX and HLMOX were historically very focused on the banks/financial institutions in the MIddle East and they did very well as UAE and Qatar ultimately moved from frontier to emerging market status with MSCI. I get the impression HLMOX has moved geographically since then but both are still heavily weighted towards financials.
    WAFMX is far more focused on consumer defensive based on what they say is a bet on the rising middle class and the local economies rather than being tied to the global financial markets and its done well since its inception also.
    According to Driehaus' registration statement and if I understand correctly, the fund should be available around February 14th. It carries a very large minimum investment so I'm not sure how accessible it will be for retail investors, but when I asked a few months ago I guess they weren't really able to answer and they just said more information would be on their website when the fund is available.
    MEASX also has a pretty big focus on frontier markets in Asia and they are also far more focused on consumer defensive and consumer cyclicals and sports a similarly high but slightly lower expense ratio than the others.
    I own both WAFMX and MEASX now and will be paying close attention to the Driehaus fund to see if their approach is one I like as well as whether there are any opportunities to invest much smaller amounts of money.
  • The Closing Bell; U.S. Stocks Drop As GDP Growth Slows
    Think this (linked) Friday morning interview with St. Louis Fed Pesident James Bullard on Bloomberg TV may have played a part in the day's markets.
    I caught snippets of it over early coffee. Thought it odd at the time that he seemed to imply there's some underlying inflation building (not yet reflected in the official numbers). Certainly, he seemed hell-bent that rates are going up, sooner rather than later.
    1. This "good cop, bad cop" routine is getting to be such a tiresome load of garbage. Cue another Fed member going, "Oh no no no we didn't mean it" after a 250 point drop in the market. At some point (and I can't believe it hasn't been already), the credibility goes into the toilet after one too many times of this BS. Yellen the other day meeting with democrats going "No no no, no rate hikes anytime soon" and telling them that the economy is okay (and some of them are going, "Yellen told us the economy was okay" as if they have no bleeping clue what's going on outside of DC beyond what Yellen just told them.)
    Now you have Bullard going "rate hike coming up?" Ridiculous.
    2. If you're going to raise rates, do it. I don't believe they can and the market may very well call that bluff. They've painted themselves into a corner.
    3. OR they are going to attempt to raise rates (and if so, do it. Hike the rate tomorrow and stop with the b***s*** already) so that when the next downturn starts they'll have some room to bring it back down again, but that still looks terrible if that's their grand plan. Additionally, Yellen doesn't seem to have anything against NIRP.
    4. At some point in this ZIRP cycle, do pensions and other investment vehicles (social security fund, etc) get in trouble from the standpoint of already low selection of safe yield and current treasury holdings at higher yields begin to mature?
    5. The dollar skyrocketing is clearly not a good thing for many companies, nor would it SEEM to be a positive for the Fed. However, there's also the fact that they never admit when anything isn't going right, because if it's not going the way that they planned, then it's.... (drumroll) transitory. As for prices going up, the memo from the cafe at the Fed saying that they were going to have to raise prices because of food inflation is still hilarious.
    The whole thing is - to some degree - the Eddie Lampert-ing of America. People love the financial engineering story (QE), but you haven't really done anything to broadly improve the underlying "business" (because we have politicians who can't agree on a street sign and who use that excuse to sit on their hands.) Eventually, the underlying business starts to show some cracks because more effort was put into financial engineering than actually building a solid, sustainable foundation for the business. After that, more aggressive moves have to be taken and the shine comes off the financial engineering story.
    And now things are starting to look rocky and the Fed is at ZIRP while other major nations are cutting rates (some to NIRP.) The fact that you have some major nations cutting rates or going into NIRP should give some people pause about the state of the global economy, but no, of course not - especially the financial media. I can't wait for those who go, "The WORLD NEEDS MORE QE, STAT!"
    I would not be surprised if we get a "next stage" of the QE era where even more significant and surprising actions are taken. The Fed has continually tried to stop economic Winter from happening. If Winter pushes its way in to a more noticeable degree and the Fed is still at ZIRP, things get interesting in a hurry. NIRP or other new measures wouldn't surprise me. To me, the concern is that QE and ZIRP are not the end of this era, but the beginning.
    Rant over.
  • FT Article: 'A multi-asset generalist is the kiss of death' - Jon Little
    Interesting read in the financial times (FTfm) about a UK firm (Northill Capital run by Jon Little) that buys majority stakes in boutique investment companies, including one offering US mutual funds (Riverbridge Partners). Their strategy seems to remind me of some individual investment strategies at MFO.
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a18d69ee-9b1a-11e4-b651-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3QJc2gXKl
  • Vanguard Warns Advisers On Stock Risk In Client Portfolios
    FYI: Investors are taking a level of risk not seen since 1999 and 2007, and financial advisers should restrain the impulse of clients to boost sagging returns.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20150128/FREE/150129912?template=printart
  • Loeb King Alternative Strategies and Asia Funds to liquidate
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1577406/000089418915000367/loeb_497e.htm
    LOEB KING ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES FUND
    LOEB KING ASIA FUND
    each a series of Loeb King Trust
    (together, the “Funds”)
    January 27, 2015
    Supplement to the
    Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”)
    each dated December 19, 2014, as supplemented January 13, 2015
    The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Loeb King Trust (the “Trust”) has adopted a plan to close and liquidate the Funds. Acting on a recommendation from Carl M. Loeb Advisory Partners L.P., the Funds’ investment adviser (the “Adviser”), the Board concluded that it would be in the best interests of each Fund and its shareholders that the Funds be closed and liquidated as series of the Trust. The Funds are expected to be closed and liquidated on February 25, 2015 (the “Liquidation Date”).
    Prior to the respective Fund’s Liquidation Date, you may redeem your shares, including reinvested distributions, in accordance with the Funds’ Prospectus. As is the case with any redemption of Fund shares, redemption proceeds will generally be subject to federal and, as applicable, state and local income taxes if the redeemed shares are held in a taxable account and the liquidation proceeds exceed your adjusted basis in the shares redeemed. If the redeemed shares are held in a qualified retirement account, such as an IRA or 401(k), the liquidation proceeds may not be subject to current income taxation under certain conditions. You should consult with your tax advisor for further information regarding the federal, state and/or local income tax consequences of this liquidation that are relevant to your specific situation. Please refer to the “Distributions and Taxes” section in the Prospectus for general information.
    ANY SHAREHOLDERS WHO HAVE NOT REDEEMED THEIR SHARES OF A FUND PRIOR TO THE FUND’S LIQUIDATION DATE WILL HAVE THEIR SHARES AUTOMATICALLY REDEEMED AS OF THAT DATE, AND PROCEEDS, SUBJECT TO ANY REQUIRED WITHHOLDINGS, WILL BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS OF RECORD. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR NEED ASSISTANCE, PLEASE CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR DIRECTLY OR THE FUNDS AT 1-855-722-4550.
    IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
    If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax advisor regarding the consequences of a redemption of Fund shares. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA, you must roll the proceeds into another Individual Retirement Account within sixty (60) days of the date of the distribution to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you receive a distribution from a 403(b)(7) Custodial Account (Tax-Sheltered account) or a Keogh Account, you must roll the distribution into a similar type of retirement plan within sixty (60) days to avoid disqualification of your plan and the severe tax consequences that it can bring. If you are the trustee of a Qualified Retirement Plan, you may reinvest the money in any way permitted by the plan and trust agreement.
    Please retain this Supplement with your Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and SAI.
  • Will The East Coast Snow Storm Close Markets?
    Hi Guys,
    Yet another example of a failed forecast.
    Forecasters just can't forecast. And that doubles down for financial forecasters as the records demonstrate.
    Best Wishes for a dry, sunny day.
  • Watch out or Ignore?
    Read this quote in an article. To tell the truth it makes me feel like now is the time for dampening down risk. The question is what are the best vehicles for accomplishing that while realizing returns better than short term bonds and cash. Are you positioning your portfolio for a significant correction, and if so what investments are you using?
    "US equities have risen each year since 2009. Since 1871 US equities have never risen for seven consecutive years. Are you betting that 2015 will break the record? Even though there are secular bull and bear markets that can last 20-30 years, there are dramatic cyclical market downturns that occur about twice a decade which can have severe negative impacts on one's cumulative investment return. It took 30 months for the S&P 500 to fall 49% between March 2000 and October 2002, and about seven years to recover (total return). It took 17 months for the S&P 500 to fall 57% in the 2007-2008 financial crisis and 5.4 years to recover (total return). More significantly, this last recovery has been fueled by central banks flooding markets with liquidity and forcing money out of savings and into risk assets to find a return.
  • PRESX and Europe
    @heezsafe:
    Re: "Okay, let's get to the obvious question: why would you ever pay the government to borrow from you?"
    1. To keep another government from taking it away (taxes, fees, penalties)
    2. To keep others from taking it (thieves, fiduciaries, litigants)
    3. To hide its existence from others.
    4. To diversify among a variety of different currencies.
    5. For possible appreciation of that currency in relation to others or to a "market-basket" of goods.
    6. Liquidity - To have it readily available for investment in other Swiss bonds, institutions, or financial instruments when opportunities arise.
    7. Because the borrower (in this case Switzerland) is viewed as more stable than any other place you can think of to store your wealth.
  • PRESX and Europe
    @hank I think everyone should find another horizon and dispense with the wishful thinking. Hope is not an investment strategy.
    This lifted today from a WaPo story and posted to Barry Ritholtz's blogsite by commenter RW:
    This is mind-blowing: You have to pay Switzerland to lend it money
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/01/21/this-is-mind-blowing-you-have-to-pay-switzerland-to-lend-it-money/
    This isn’t really new, though, so much as Europe’s new normal. As the Financial Times points out, €1.2 trillion, or $1.4 trillion, of eurozone debt has negative yields that mean lenders are paying borrowers. But what it is new is just how long people are willing to pay governments to borrow. At first, they only did so for 1-or-2-year bonds. Then, in a sign of how dysfunctional Europe’s economy still is, investors started paying Germany to borrow for five or six years. But now, as you can see above, Switzerland has beaten everyone else to be the first to have negative ten year borrowing costs, at -0.2 percent. And by “first,” I mean in history. This has never happened before.
    IMO, this is not a time to be filling all your asset allocation boxes. If you think the U.S. is tapped out and you need to find more fertile fields, Europe looks like a bad destination. It is a mess and getting worse, and the euro is a basket case (and sterling isn't too far behind). The race to debase is on, and currency warfare is now obvious. I see no upside to converting/exchanging, directly or indirectly, my US dollars/dollar assets for something international right now, and becoming Wiley Coyote past the cliff edge in the blink of an eye.
  • What Dividend Stocks Are The Billionaires Buying
    "The iBillionaire High Dividend Index, which was just launched today, is an equally-weighted basket of 50 high-dividend stocks held by high-profile billionaires in the financial sector." From Charles Sizemore at Forbes.com
    FWIW, I only own one selection in their top 10 but I own a lot of it. That probably helps explain why I am not a billionaire.
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/moneybuilder/2015/01/21/what-dividend-stocks-are-the-billionaires-buying/?partner=yahootix
  • Obama Wants To Reduce Tax Breaks For 529 plans
    Some people are living in a fantasy world.
    Here are a few of the mere facts.
    It's the dollar based on nothing but a promise. It's easy to inflate the value of stocks. What is your value of stocks in the terms of 1960 dollars? I bet you lost you're ass - compliments of your politicians. It's the social security lock box. Its Dian Feinstein's statement that "we don't know what is in Obama care bill till it becomes law". It's the promises politicians have made to get elected. It's the deadbeats in this country that think the world owes them a living. It's the insurance companies that get in between you and your doctor. It's the credit card companies that get in between you money and what you purchase. Its the lack of tort reform that is bringing every industry to their financial knees. Its the pension system that will be worthless when you come to need it. Its the increasing taxes that are based on false promises. I don't see any distinction between any of the modern political parties. Politicians would go broke if they had to work for a living. It's a travesty to create debt that your grand children will be saddled with
    In terms of 1960 dollars and lifestyle we have all lost our ass !!
    Do I dare say more