Do you think that the banking and loan industry will benefit? Maybe financial services will replace healthcare as the go to sector for 2015.

You know, I think for a number of reasons mortgages and loans will probably still not have the kind of demand that the industry would hope for, but I think if there was a noticeable and sustained move higher in rates that would likely get people who have been waiting around to move.
Rates have been low enough for long enough that perhaps some people interested in a loan have become complacent and have been waiting for even lower rates or they think rates aren't going anywhere.
I really don't have any interest in the financials from the standpoint of I don't think anyone truly has any real visibility. Several years after the financial crisis, the major banks are still fined for some bad deed at a rate that seems to be once every month or two.
If you look at the ten year, it wandered around the 1.50-1.70 neighborhood for 2012 into 2013, then in Spring of 2013, it ramped higher. Early this year, it fell back into that neighborhood again and bounced. Perhaps that area is/was the bottom?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-05/take-out-7-year-car-loan-buy-stocks-cnbc-experts-advise
"We saved the best for last. Watch below as Bill Griffeth and Kelly Evans host WSJ’s Jonathan Clements and Premier Financial Advisors’ Mark Martiak for a discussion on what we’re calling the car-stock arbitrage wherein you are (literally) encouraged to take out a 7 year loan with a rapidly amortizing asset as collateral in order to buy stocks. "

So if I've got this right, what used to be accounts: savings, checking & possibly brokerage became buckets. Somewhere along the line these buckets transformed or evolved into sleeves. What's next, fingers?, knuckles?, something else?
Frankly all I see with anything beyond possibly 10-12 funds is a bucket, sorry sleeve, of expense fees going out the door under the false pretense of diversification. You might have different managers but they are all buying the same stuff you could get in any index. I'd rather pocket those ER's and have them working for me rather than lining the pockets or leather interiors of some financial advisor or fund manager. But that's just me and I'm kinda old and stupid that way.

Seriously? Now one can just buy that honor huh? Who knew.
Look, Jack Bogle had a good idea setting up a house of index funds for the masses. No question that it's been instrumental in helping a number of individuals on their way toward 'financial' freedom. However I hope, I really, really hope that such an endeavor was not the intent behind awarding the Presidential Medal of Freedom.
One small aside, the last I read the majority of savings/money in Mr. Bogle's personal account is invested in active funds. Maybe that's changed.

FYI: Americans have $4.4 trillion invested in 401(k)s, according to the Investment Company Institute, making these tax-deferred savings accounts a vital part of retirement planning for many. BrightScope, a financial-information company that rates retirement savings plans, compiled this list for Kiplinger of the most popular mutual funds based on funds' 401(k) assets under management. Here is a list of the top 100 funds.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.kiplinger.com/printstory.php?pid=13310

FYI: Lots of investors likely are dealing with a nagging, cautious feeling about the U.S. stock market as major indexes continue to thunder higher. Stocks can’t go up forever, right?
In just one week, the bull-market rally for the S&P 500 will celebrate its sixth birthday from its post-financial crisis nadir. That’s a rare feat. Only three other bull markets have lived to see a seventh year since the World War II, and this one is pacing to be the largest by magnitude (211%), says S&P Capital IQ.
Regards,
Ted
http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2015/03/02/10-reasons-bank-of-america-merrill-lynch-is-bullish-on-the-sp-500/tab/print/

Scott, a person's methodology sometimes is a by product of their financial circumstances. When I was your age I had but $2200, a negative net worth and a part time job. So being long term and reinvesting dividends and the like was not an option with such a meager account.

From the article: "A host of factors is behind institutions’ adoption of bond ETFs, analysts say. Among them: Deteriorating liquidity in corporate bonds has frustrated large investors as many individual bonds have become difficult to buy or sell quickly at a given price, thanks in part to rules limiting banks’ risk-taking.
U.S. corporate debt outstanding has grown by more than $2 trillion since the financial crisis to $7.7 trillion, but trading in many bonds has slowed as new rules caused dealers to pare their holdings by two-thirds from precrisis levels.
“You can’t get things done in a day anymore” in bonds, said Cliff Noreen, president at $212 billion money manager Babson Capital Management LLC, who saw an ETF sales pitch by iShares last year. “It’s more like a week.” "
In addition: hedge funds and etfs
Lastly and not knowing the affects; is that many etfs have options trading available for the etf.
Regards,
Catch

FYI: Tables comparing investment returns are nothing new. Fund companies and other financial institutions have used them for years to argue for or against different investing ideas. Though, the problem is most tables are either stuck inside a PDF file or quickly become a giant mess of colored tiles that make it hard to read. I thought I’d take the concept, clean it up, and take it a step further.
Regards,
Ted
https://novelinvestor.com/15-year-look-asset-class-sector-country-returns/

2% APY CD, 32 month maturity - shorter than VFSTX, NCUA-insured, zero price risk, higher yield. if you think rates will be going up, you can take the interest payments monthly, but unlike a bond (except a zero coupon) or bond fund you have the option to avoid reinvestment risk by having the interest compound.
http://www.elements.org/Shamrock_Certificate_Rate
I find that banks and credit unions continue to offer better yielding, safer investments than short term bonds.

From the article:
"Financial research is highly prone to statistical distortion. Academics have the choice of many thousands of stocks, bonds and currencies being traded across dozens of countries, complete with decades’ worth of daily price data. They can backtest thousands of correlations to find a few that appear to offer profitable strategies."

As a sentient (or at least semi-sentient - my wife made me say this) carbon-based life form (yo, Spock), I can assure you, based on over 35 yr. in a profession in which personal benefit could be in conflict with the best interests of those served, fee for service or commission-based reimbursement poses stresses difficult to resist. There is a pressure to increase the services offered or the products recommended. Ultimately, I opted for the reduced income and the reduced stress of an employed position, where my recommendations were not financially altered.
OTOH, if the adviser, taking a small percentage of my investment portfolio, sucks down over a month's worth of income yearly, regardless of the quality of the advice, the eye I turn towards them is definitely jaundiced.
I plan to send my lovely wife to meet a Garrett network member to discuss her age 70 options to see if the adviser meets my standards, since the situation is moderately complex. I hope the result is positive, so I can get an opinion regarding the next 30 years.
The unfortunate reality is that honest financial investment advisers probably can't make a decent living. I may want to buy 3 or 6 hours of advice a year, and even at $500/hr (and, yes, I would be complaining loudly), it is less than any percentage-based advisory service. OTOH, I'd trust the hourly advice more, since I'd presume they were trying to earn my money.

Obama's Fiduciary Plan:
"There are a lot of very fine financial advisors out there, but there [are] also financial advisors who receive back-door payments or hidden fees for steering people into bad retirement investments that have high fees and low returns," he added. "So what happens is these payments, these inducements, incentivize the broker to make recommendations that generate the best returns for them, but not necessarily the best returns for you."
obama-fiduciary-plan-targets-advisors-back-door-payments-hidden-fees

There is nothing confusing other than the writer, who as the WSJ notes, writes about how financial advisers can "build and improve their practices" - not how they can best serve their customers.
Most of the article is about how "advisers" can charge for their services - percentage of AUM or commission. (It doesn't discuss fee only - based strictly on time and effort.)
If someone is a fiduciary, there is no confusion, no conflict. The adviser is to ignore any benefit he gets from the fee arrangement and recommend the best investments for the customer. Period. That's what the government is recommending, and why articles like this try to confuse matters.

FYI: While the Obama administration is pressing for more financial advisers to operate as “fiduciaries,” the reality is that many advisers currently wear two hats.
That can be confusing because those advisers provide some financial-planning or portfolio-management services under a fiduciary standard, which requires them to put their clients’ interests first. They typically charge fees for this work.
Regards,
Ted
http://blogs.wsj.com/totalreturn/2015/02/25/fiduciary-or-broker-many-financial-advisers-wear-both-hats/tab/print/?mg=blogs-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.wsj.com%2Ftotalreturn%2F2015%2F02%2F25%2Ffiduciary-or-broker-many-financial-advisers-wear-both-hats%2Ftab%2Fprint&fpid=2,121

Classic Risk/Reward 101
(Bloomberg) -- Chevron Corp. sold $6.35 billion of bonds, the biggest debt offering by a U.S. oil and gas producer since the 54 percent rout in crude began in July, as investors seek debt of energy producers that can weather the downturn.
“Chevron is a reminder that all energy companies aren’t created equal,” said Scott Carmack, a money manager at Portland, Oregon-based Leader Capital Corp., which oversees $1.5 billion in fixed-income assets. “They are a behemoth of a company that is built for the long haul. Investors have no problem lending to them.”
Debt of the riskiest energy companies tracked by Bank of Merrill Lynch Bond Indexes lost more than 9 percent since last June, while those of safer energy securities gained 0.6 percent.
The new debt is an insurance policy against further declines in oil as well as an opportunity to take advantage of lower interest rates, Fadel Gheit, Chevron analyst at Oppenheimer & Co., said in a telephone interview.
“If they see a once-in-a-lifetime investment opportunity, they don’t want to be stuck in a situation where interest rates rise,” he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-24/chevron-said-to-plan-bond-sale-in-second-deal-since-oil-plunge
Original
http://seekingalpha.com/news/2322826-chevron-raises-6_35b-in-biggest-oil-bond-deal-since-rout
Country,Company,Commodity,Corruption Risk Wrapped in One
Moody's downgrades Petrobras' ratings to Ba2; maintains review for downgrade
Global Credit Research - 24 Feb 2015
These rating actions reflect increasing concern about corruption investigations and liquidity pressures that might result from delays in delivering audited financial statements, as well as Moody's expectation that the company will be challenged to make meaningful reduction in its very high debt burden over the next several years. The ratings remain on review for downgrade.
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Petrobras-ratings-to-Ba2-maintains-review-for-downgrade--PR_319021
It was the fourth Petrobras downgrade in five months by Moody's.
http://seekingalpha.com/news/2322936-moody-s-downgrades-petrobras-debt-to-junk

FYI: (Less Is More)
Time to take an inventory of your mutual funds. How many are there? What are their investment styles? Is your portfolio of mutual funds cluttered just like your closet? Have you owned some mutual funds so long that you have forgotten why you bought them? Are there some mutual funds on the top shelf, way in the back of your financial closet you haven't even looked at in a while?
Regards,
Ted
http://www.aaii.com/evergreen/article/how-many-mutual-funds-should-you-have-in-your-investment-portfolio.touch

My mind will never be as sharp as when I was Faced with daily business problems and financial decisions..... which I don't want or need today to Live a good life,
"Simple" is a good way of life, "boring" is not...I worked to get "simple"..

(1) Halting Redemptions: Here's an article which quotes existing SEC language giving fund directors permission to halt temporarily redemptions from money market funds in times of crisis. It was supposed to take effect a year ago:http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2015/02/warning-sec-has-given-money-market.html On broader scale, ... Never put all your eggs in one basket. Folks here are creative enough to figure out how best to preserve some degree of liquidity in event of a financial crisis. Umm ... Using different cash-equivalency funds, different banks, perhaps some govt. bonds, different lines of credit, a store of food or cash, perhaps a pocket full of gold or silver coins.
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(2) Floating NAV: John's original article addresses the floating NAV soon to take effect (although fudiciaries can get around the requirement by designating a fund "retail" only). I view the change as equivalent of cod-liver oil. Won't taste very good - but healthier long run. Money market funds were not designed to insure the same level of safety or stability as banks or government bonds. The floating NAV brings investor expectations more in to line with reality. Consternation surrounding the floating NAV appears largely "Much Ado About Nothing". We have operated our family budget out of both good quality ultra-shorts and money market funds for decades. Fluctuations in value on the ultra-shorts are normally slight and not enough to upset anyone's budget. We've owned Price's TRBUX since inception. It aims for $5.00 NAV and typically remains at that value. On rare occasions has it fallen to $4.99 or risen to $5.01, hardly enough to be noticed. A conservative house, Price has probably done a better job running this type of fund than some others will. And, I'd expect greater fluctuations during a severe crisis. (Under such circumstances you'll probably have more to worry about than whether the cable bill gets paid on time.)
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(3) Re Ol' Skeeter's Related Question http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/19156/money-market-reforms-force-advisers-to-rethink-risk#latest
Can't remember the last time I looked to my cash portion for income. The small amount of cash we hold is for immediate liquidity and to allow us to take advantage of opportunities that arise. Since most houses exempt money market funds and ultra-shorts from frequent trading restrictions, we're willing to sacrifice yield in return for that increased liquidity. We also keep balances in no-fee checking accounts at local banks and credit unions. While the income earned is negligible, we receive many services from these institutions. Things like being able to transfer funds in and out of our mutual funds, automatic bill paying, gift-cards during the Holidays, checking (even a supply of checks), all without fees.

BARRINGTON FINANCIAL ADVISORS, INC.
a Registered Investment Advisor
(Celebrating 42 years of Professional Service)
MARKET COMMENTARY
FEBRUARY 2015
King Dollar is a two-edged sword. The very strong dollar has helped to cause the dramatic fall in oil prices. Like oil, all commodities are priced in dollars, so copper, iron ore, coal, grains, etc., are all lower in price, which has given the U.S. a very low inflation rate as well as adding after-tax dollars to the consumers’ pocketbook. Engineers know for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. This does not always occur in financial markets but it has this time. Our strong currency is slowing our exports since other countries need to spend more of their currency to purchase our exports. This causes inflation in other countries, which is slowing their growth and lowering their consumption. Also, the fall in oil prices is causing domestic companies to dramatically lower capital spending this year resulting in announced lay offs in drilling and oil field service companies. This is problematic because the hydrocarbon industry has been the largest provider of high paying jobs over the last five years.
What was initially announced as a 2.6% GDP increase in the fourth quarter, will probably be reduced as more data on our export activity is more available. However, going forward, there are several factors which point to a continued increase in U.S. growth. Back on February 6th the U.S. Labor Department announced a stronger-than-expected increase of 257,000 jobs for January. They also increased the new hires number for December and November by 147,000 jobs. This is the largest labor increase in a three-month period since 1997. The Labor Department also stated wage gains were beginning to see higher growth. Outside of the energy business, labor hires are increasing. Retail, construction, manufacturing, and healthcare all showed an increase in hirings. The lower gasoline prices has allowed consumers to be able to increase their savings without crushing spending. They are also buying larger vehicles again. Truck and SUV sales have increased over the same periods a year ago. These vehicles are more profitable to the automobile manufacturer, which allows them to increase their profit as well as increase hiring.
As we mentioned earlier the strong dollar has contributed to the dramatic fall in the price of oil. However, slower demand from a slowing world economy along with increased production in Canada and the U.S. quickened the fall in price as surpluses rose. We believe there are several factors, which will cause prices to stabilize and start to rise sooner than many analysts are predicting. The Energy Information Agency (EIA) last week announced that gasoline consumption in January showed a dramatic increase over a year ago. The International Energy Agency (IEA) is predicting world-wide consumption to increase to around 94 mm barrels/day by the end of the year, an increase of about 1.5 mm barrels. In addition, political problems around the world are beginning to slow production. Libya has slowed exports by about 500,000 barrels/day over the last two months and the EIA announced domestic production decreased by 33,000 barrels/day last month. For these reasons we believe the price of oil has currently stabilized around the $50 per barrel price and has started to rise back up toward the $70 to $80 per barrel that we think it will reach by year end. This price increase will be aided by a somewhat weaker dollar between now and year end.
The oil price collapse has caused some investors to throw out the baby with the bath water. As a patient investor, there are bargains available in the market. As oil prices have fallen, so have Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs). Ethane had fallen to about $0.40/gallon, down from over $1.50/gallon last year. This gives the U.S. chemical industry a distinct advantage over other areas of the world that use Naphtha to derive Ethylene. One sector of the economy that benefits from lower prices is the chemical industry. Westlake Chemicals (WLK) and LyondellBasell (LYB) are still our favorites in this sector. Their plant expansions are coming on line now thru mid-2017. This added capacity will lower their cost even more and enable them to take better advantage of the abundance of domestic NGL production. We feel both of these companies are still oversold. We do not feel that the price of oil is going to remain low enough for long enough to have any sort of negative impact on their earnings so we will be adding to these positions as cash becomes available.
The mid-stream sector was hard hit as well. These companies derive most of their income from fee-based revenue through their pipelines and NGL processing. They are largely shielded from the price of the hydrocarbon. Several mid-stream companies we follow are building capacity to take advantage of the domestic expansion in production and demand in the NGL space. Our two favorite names in this space are Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) and Kinder Morgan (KMI).
With the large drop in oil prices, almost all of the E&P companies have slashed their capital expansion spending for the coming year by at least 25% to over 50%. They will not ramp back up until oil prices rise and stabilize. As the price of oil gains ground back to the mid-$60s, several producers that have very good leases will again be very profitable. We are now slowly increasing our positions in several players in this area. Names we recommend are Concho Resources Inc. (CXO), EOG Resources (EOG), and Linn Energy (LINE). For an investment in the Marcellus shale, Gastar Exploration (GST) and Range Resources (RRC) are where we are currently adding money.
We are emphasizing investments in companies with good cash flow, good cash distributions and companies that operate in areas where they have a competitive advantage due to much lower energy costs and raw material input costs. We prefer companies with price earnings ratios that are at levels that are attractive compared to the low interest rates on investment grade bonds. BSG&L and BFA are long-term investors and we believe that if you are patient, build cash and buy good companies on pull backs, your portfolio will have good growth over the long term. Author: Ben Dickey, CFP/MBA/CHFC, Chairman of the Investment Committee, BSG&L Financial Services LLC.
We welcome any concerns, or comments you may have. Please feel free to call (713) 785-7100 or email us at any time.
Have a Blessed Day,
William C. Heath, CFP®
Chairman & CEO