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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Dodge and Cox Annual Reports posted
    Among other "perpetual bulls" ( it seems) on EM is GMO
    For a very long time they have believed Emerging markets will outperform almost everything else, but I think this is almost all based on valuation.
    There are a lot of moving parts to try to understand.
    Some are just financial: Dollar strength vs weakness ( can be hedged away I guess) honesty of management ( perhaps identifiable by good PM), corruption ( a matter of opinion perhaps but clearly some countries have stronger rule of law protections etc than others)
    Then there are the ethical issues: child labor, worker's rights etc all weaker than in US and even the US we will all admit has major problems
    You now have to add Climate Change. India has done very well, until the last couple of years, but already is hitting summertime temperatures ( per Bloomberg) with only 10 % of population having air conditioning. Over the next few years this is bound to weaken economic performance unless you are 100% into Indian A/C companies
    For the funds that do provide decent annual letters, a careful read can see how well a lot of these issues are addressed. But what do you do when they are not mentioned at all?
  • Jamie Dimon says we might get to 6%
    @larryB It’s a weird world. I had a neighbor some years ago who would polish his car every day, clearly loved it. I forget what model it was. Eventually his wife left him but he kept the car. I don’t think she felt she could compete with the vehicle for his attention.
  • Your tax dollars at work - US Treasury/Savings Bonds
    Several years ago I did a little volunteer work the Homeless Advocacy Project in your city. With a clear mind and sufficient training and education, "the system" can be navigated. Unfortunately, that help or training is too often needed.
    The Homeless Advocacy Project (HAP) primarily assists with SSI, SSDI, and housing issues for clients who are homeless or at imminent risk of homelessness
    As to brick walls, I just keep pounding away, hoping that once in a while it can make a difference.
    (If you're not familiar with Dr. Who, the video below may not make much sense. Just think of it as representing how long it can take to break through some walls.)
  • Your tax dollars at work - US Treasury/Savings Bonds
    Last year when I mailed the tax refund savings bonds I actually did receive, I didn't send them certified. My thinking was:
    - if the USPS loses the mail, handing them a tracking number will not locate it (I've gone through that process); or
    - if TD says it didn't receive the mail when it did, it will be pointless arguing with them since they'll still insist I file another form for reissue; or
    - if TD does receive the savings bonds, TD will send an email acknowledgement three months later (which is what happened):
    Dear Customer,
    This is a system generated email to communicate we received your Savings Bonds/Treasury Marketable Securities materials.
    Cases are worked in the order they are received in our office. Your request is important to us and will receive attention as soon as possible. Please allow up to 13 weeks for review and processing. If we require additional information, we will contact you. Thank you for your patience.
    Please retain the Customer Number and Case Number referenced above to streamline any future actions associated with this request. Also note, you may receive multiple email notifications and Case Numbers depending on the type of transaction(s) you have requested.
    If you have additional questions, please use the Contact Us link on TreasuryDirect.gov.
    We appreciate your interest in U.S. Treasury securities.
    Remember too, stamps were 8% cheaper back then (58¢) :-(
    Keeping the single savings bond in my safe deposit box raises other concerns. Will that box still be around in 30 (now 29) years? Will I? Why create an additional hassle for an executor by keeping it separate from all the electronic savings bonds?
    Cashing savings bonds at banks can have its own problems - while most (but not all) banks will redeem savings bonds, many require that you have accounts with them, sometimes long term.
    after an uptick in fraud, some banks quit accepting them
    Sept 2022, https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/news/us-paper-savings-bonds-taking-long-time-to-cash/
    Some banks and credit unions may be able to cash savings bonds, but that service isn’t currently available at Capital One.
    https://www.capitalone.com/learn-grow/money-management/how-to-cash-in-savings-bonds/
    To cash in a savings bond(s) at your local [U.S. Bank] you must [be] ... A signer on a U.S. Bank checking, savings or money market account that has been open for five (5) years or more.
    https://www.usbank.com/customer-service/knowledge-base/KB0209712.html
  • Dodge and Cox Annual Reports posted
    @sma3: you probably are aware of Matthews’ MEMX, which excludes China. How to screen for such a portfolio, I dunno. Maybe Premium guru Charles can help.
    Good point. But, Matthews. We're all aware of their inner turmoil recently, going back a couple of years, at least.
  • Thoughts on JEPI?
    My 75 y/o parents are considering putting some cash into JEPI as they want some additional income and like the yield (11.49%). They have a growth section in their portfolio (a lot of FCNTX and DODGX both of which they've held for over 35 years) and are considering JEPI for the income side of their portfolio and are willing to sacrifice capital appreciation for the extra income. JEPI has some investments that I simply don't understand and I don't think my parents do either. What are your thoughts on JEPI?
    Thanks in advance for any and all replies!
  • Blackstone Child Labor in Slaughterhouses and Low-Road Capitalism 2
    Great article in NYT today about child labor in the U.S. It’s actually pervasive:
    https://nytimes.com/2023/02/25/us/unaccompanied-migrant-child-workers-exploitation.html
    These workers are part of a new economy of exploitation: Migrant children, who have been coming into the United States without their parents in record numbers, are ending up in some of the most punishing jobs in the country, a New York Times investigation found. This shadow work force extends across industries in every state, flouting child labor laws that have been in place for nearly a century. Twelve-year-old roofers in Florida and Tennessee. Underage slaughterhouse workers in Delaware, Mississippi and North Carolina. Children sawing planks of wood on overnight shifts in South Dakota..,.
    …In town after town, children scrub dishes late at night. They run milking machines in Vermont and deliver meals in New York City. They harvest coffee and build lava rock walls around vacation homes in Hawaii. Girls as young as 13 wash hotel sheets in Virginia….
    ….Migrant child labor benefits both under-the-table operations and global corporations, The Times found. In Los Angeles, children stitch “Made in America” tags into J. Crew shirts. They bake dinner rolls sold at Walmart and Target, process milk used in Ben & Jerry’s ice cream and help debone chicken sold at Whole Foods. As recently as the fall, middle-schoolers made Fruit of the Loom socks in Alabama. In Michigan, children make auto parts used by Ford and General Motors.
    The number of unaccompanied minors entering the United States climbed to a high of 130,000 last year — three times what it was five years earlier — and this summer is expected to bring another wave….
    …One of the nation’s largest contract manufacturers, Hearthside [Food Solutions] makes and packages food for companies like Frito-Lay, General Mills and Quaker Oats. “It would be hard to find a cookie or cracker aisle in any leading grocer that does not contain multiple products from Hearthside production facilities,” a Grand Rapids-area plant manager told a trade magazine in 2019.
    General Mills, whose brands include Cheerios, Lucky Charms and Nature Valley, said it recognized “the seriousness of this situation” and was reviewing The Times’s findings. PepsiCo, which owns Frito-Lay and Quaker Oats, declined to comment.
    Three people who until last year worked at one of the biggest employment agencies in Grand Rapids, Forge Industrial Staffing, said Hearthside supervisors were sometimes made aware that they were getting young-looking workers whose identities had been flagged as false.
    “Hearthside didn’t care,” said Nubia Malacara, a former Forge employee who said she had also worked at Hearthside as a minor….
    …While many migrant children are sent to the United States by their parents, others are persuaded to come by adults who plan to profit from their labor.
    Nery Cutzal was 13 when he met his sponsor over Facebook Messenger. Once Nery arrived in Florida, he discovered that he owed more than $4,000 and had to find his own place to live. His sponsor sent him threatening text messages and kept a running list of new debts: $140 for filling out H.H.S. paperwork; $240 for clothes from Walmart; $45 for a taco dinner.
    “Don’t mess with me,” the sponsor wrote. “You don’t mean anything to me.”
    Nery began working until 3 a.m. most nights at a trendy Mexican restaurant near Palm Beach to make the payments. “He said I would be able to go to school and he would take care of me, but it was all lies,” Nery said.
    His father, Leonel Cutzal, said the family had become destitute after a series of bad harvests and had no choice but to send their oldest son north from Guatemala….
    …Teachers at the school estimated that 200 of their immigrant students were working full time while trying to keep up with their classes. The greatest share of Mr. Angstman’s students worked at one of the four Hearthside plants in the city.
    The company, which has 39 factories in the United States, has been cited by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration for 34 violations since 2019, including for unsafe conveyor belts at the plant where Carolina found her job. At least 11 workers suffered amputations in that time. In 2015, a machine caught the hairnet of an Ohio worker and ripped off part of her scalp.
    The history of accidents “shows a corporate culture that lacks urgency to keep workers safe,” an OSHA official wrote after the most recent violation for an amputation.
    Underage workers in Grand Rapids said that spicy dust from immense batches of Flamin’ Hot Cheetos made their lungs sting, and that moving heavy pallets of cereal all night made their backs ache. They worried about their hands getting caught in conveyor belts, which federal law classifies as so hazardous that no child Carolina’s age is permitted to work with them….
    …But these jobs — which are grueling and poorly paid, and thus chronically short-staffed — are exactly where many migrant children are ending up. Adolescents are twice as likely as adults to be seriously injured at work, yet recently arrived preteens and teenagers are running industrial dough mixers, driving massive earthmovers and burning their hands on hot tar as they lay down roofing shingles, The Times found.
    Unaccompanied minors have had their legs torn off in factories and their spines shattered on construction sites, but most of these injuries go uncounted. The Labor Department tracks the deaths of foreign-born child workers but no longer makes them public. Reviewing state and federal safety records and public reports, The Times found a dozen cases of young migrant workers killed since 2017, the last year the Labor Department reported any.
    The deaths include a 14-year-old food delivery worker who was hit by a car while on his bike at a Brooklyn intersection; a 16-year-old who was crushed under a 35-ton tractor-scraper outside Atlanta; and a 15-year-old who fell 50 feet from a roof in Alabama where he was laying down shingles.
    Note like the Packers company owned by Blackstone above, Hearthside is owned by a private equity fund shop, this one called Charlesbank Capital Partners.
  • Smaller SP-SC 600 ETF SLY Merging into Larger SPSM
    What is the story here?
    State Street was a pioneer and first mover in the ETFs (SPY was the 1st ever ETF in 01/1993).
    For many years, the SEC had approved the ETFs as exceptions to mutual funds, and over time, these exceptions created ETFs with slightly different twists. Firms hung on to these older versions of ETFs because the newer rules were quite different. Some older ETFs also had decent past history and good liquidity due to better intuitional acceptance even when some had high ERs.
    So, many firms developed entirely new "core" versions of their older ETFs that had lower ERs, but the AUMs started out low, and liquidity was not good for institutions, but OK for retail. This is ETF industry version of having its cake and eating it too.
    That is how the "SPDR Portfolio" ETFs came about in 10/2017. These were just what the others have called their "core" ETFs (BlackRock's iShares come to mind and there are several others).
    More recently, there were reforms for the ETFs in 09/2019 and all these older ETF structures based on ETFs-as-exceptions-to-mutual-funds were dumped, and new ETF structures were developed and applied uniformly to almost all ETFs.
    Now to SLY vs SPSM.
    SPDR SLY started in 11/2005. Its current AUM is $1.8 billion and ER is 0.15%. Its benchmark was always SP SC 600.
    SPDR Portfolio SPSM started out in 07/2013 with a different SC index, that was changed to another SC index, and finally changed to SP SC 600 in 2020. Its current AUM is $5.2 billion (much bigger than the original SLY) and ER is 0.05% (much lower than the original SLY).
    So, now, after the changes to SPSM in 2020, the 2 became identical! Why not merge them?
    And that is what State Street is doing now with 06/2023 target. If anything, what took them so long?
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    Catch, I too appreciate your efforts. I must admit that over the years it has seemed to me that it is in fixed income discussions that you are most in your element. Perhaps I just appreciate you more at such times.
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    This week’s guest has experienced multiple economic and market cycles during his more than 50 years of managing money and thinks the current one is particularly perilous for investors. In an exclusive WEALTHTRACK appearance, he felt it was important to tell us why and what steps we should consider taking to mitigate its effects.
    Feb 25, 2023

  • Jeffrey Gundlach says he’s preparing for a recession and it doesn’t matter what you call it— ‘In eit
    Smart. Sometimes his mouth gets ahead of his brain. I held DLFNX for a few years. It became lackluster, I exited.
  • Jeffrey Gundlach says he’s preparing for a recession and it doesn’t matter what you call it— ‘In eit
    This article is behind a paywall. If you subscribe to Apple News, you can get access to some of them. Note that he has been calling for this for several years and he is finally got it right.
    Gundlach’s status on Wall Street these days is undeniable, and he went on to dish out some advice for investors on Wednesday, arguing U.S. Treasuries may be the safe haven of choice amid a “protracted bear market” in stocks. He said that DoubleLine has incrementally increased Treasury exposure, decreased credit exposure, and upgraded the quality of its bond portfolio over the past year.
    “I always say, ‘Don’t listen to what I say, look at what I do.’ And we started de-risking, if you will, in the fourth quarter of 2021,” he told Yahoo Finance, adding that he has “been preparing for a hard landing” for some time.
    https://fortune.com/2023/02/23/billionaire-bond-king-jeffrey-gundlach-preparing-recession-you-need-an-umbrella/
  • Short Term High Yield vs. CDs vs. Treasuries vs. I-Bonds
    Several posts I made over the years
    1) 2020, going to cash on 2/29/2000(link). I actually posted here too(link)
    2) In early 2022, going to cash(link).
    3) In 11/2022, going back in and why (link).
    4) I posted about one good indicator I have been using for years, called 3 line break. You can read about it (here). I explained some of my trades. If you look at 3 line break (link) it's very clear why I sold early in Feb. HYD,ORNAX are HY Munis.
    Unfortunately, no more trades in real-time.
  • Short Term High Yield vs. CDs vs. Treasuries vs. I-Bonds
    No "envy" here... our money has been made for some years and I wish everyone else success also.
    But skepticism regarding constant boasting, with absolutely no corroborating information? You'd better believe it.
  • Short Term High Yield vs. CDs vs. Treasuries vs. I-Bonds
    msf : You mentioned VUSXX in above post. What % is tax exempt from state taxation ?
    Another question while I have your ear. Tax info from Van Guard shows % of treasury dividend from a fund. If I take qualified & non qualified dividends & add them together times percentage, would that be the correct state exemption ?
    Thank you for your time, Derf
    Usually VUSXX is 100% exempt from state taxation, or at least close to that. In 2022, it was 100% exempt.
    https://www.vanguard.com/pdf/USGOIN_2023.pdf
    This is how Vanguard chooses to run the fund (and AFAIK has, for years). Per prospectus, the fund is allowed to invest also in "repurchase agreements fully collateralized by U.S. Treasury securities." But it usually doesn't use repurchase agreements. This is important because "Income generated from investments in repurchase agreements with the federal reserve are generally subject to state and local income taxes."
    https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vusxx#overview
    In contrast, Fidelity's Treasury (as opposed to "Treasury Only") MMF, FZFXX, currently has 85% of its portfolio invested in (state-taxable) repurchase agreements. And in 2022, only 23.6% of its income was state tax-exempt. This is doubly important; not just because of the low percentage generally, but because so little was invested in Treasuries that none of the income was state tax-exempt in NY, Calif. or Conn. (special laws in those states).
    You are correct that total divs (qualified + non-qualified) x exempt percentage = state exemption (but see NY, Calif., Conn.). It is sometimes easier just to read the total div figure off of box 1a on the 1099-Div form. But if you have multiple holdings in a brokerage, you'll have to handle each fund separately (different percentages for each fund).
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    COWZ. I suppose the attraction there is dividends WITH growth prospects? But I see it framed as mid-cap Value, overall. Oops, my bad. In 6 years, it's up +93.51%. Not shabby.
  • DJIA Closes Negative YTD (February 21)
    LarryB - agreed. Nobody knows nuttin' and markets will fluctuate. Only things you can do is either stick your head in the sand (and money in the mattress) or stay in the game and remember the markets are like flying in a plane: control what you can about the trip (eg, choice of airline, seat/class, etc) but understand that there may well be some turbulence along the flight ... and while it could be scary at times, the only way out of it is through it.
    That said, I do wonder what younger financial advisors/planners/brokers are feeling or acting during market swoons and what they can advise clients outside of algorithmically-generated allocation recommendations ... for the past 20 years they've pretty much only known ZIRP environments, fed-puts, and no prolonged periods of inflation, stagflation, or chaos.
    (But your point is well-taken: I had an 8%-ish condo mortgage back in 2000 (obtained via, of all places, Priceline.Com and very quickly paid off) which until recently was considered exhorbitant and OMGTERRIBLE.) Current rates are still better than what we had back then!
  • Blackstone Child Labor in Slaughterhouses and Low-Road Capitalism 2
    @sma3 Green Century has a particular focus on environmental issues so they will have exposure to some other problematic companies in industries like pharma. There is no perfect solution here. That said, even when they own problematic companies, they often engage with them, including by filing their own shareholder resolutions to change the companies' policies, and supporting other activist campaigns: https://greencentury.com/impact/
    Regarding the percentage of their profits that goes to non-profit environmental groups, my understanding is it is 100%, perhaps the most interesting fact of all: https://greencentury.com/about-us/
    Support of Environmental and Public Health Nonprofits: One hundred percent (100%) of the profits earned managing the Green Century Funds belong to our non-profit owners who run critical environmental and public health campaigns.
    The organizations which founded and own Green Century Capital Management Inc are: California Public Interest Research Group (CALPIRG), Citizen Lobby of New Jersey (NJPIRG), Colorado Public Interest Research Group (COPIRG), ConnPIRG Citizen Lobby, Fund for the Public Interest, Massachusetts Public Interest Research Group (MASSPIRG), MOPIRG Citizen Organization, PIRGIM Public Interest Lobby, and Washington State Public Interest Research Group (WASHPIRG).
    We are one of the first fossil fuel free, diversified and environmentally responsible mutual funds.
    Regarding investing in a different lower-cost fund and donating the difference to a charity, I doubt a different fund would do this: https://greencentury.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/NEW-SA-2-pager-season-higlights-9.30.22.pdf Engagement campaigns cost money. I agree the fees are high here, but I find some of their campaigns impressive, particularly the Apple one:
    Apple* announced in November 2021 that it would provide individual consumersaccess to replacement parts, tools and repair manuals needed to perform common repairs to its products, marking a notable reversal for the company. Apple had vigorously lobbied against legislation that would require them to allow others to fix their products. The announcement came after discussions with Apple and on the same day that Green Century had to decide whether to press forward on a right-to-repair shareholder proposal. Apple launched the program in April.
    McDonald’s* has been a target of Green Century’s shareholder advocacy in recent
    years because of the fast-food giant’s reliance on unsustainable factory farming
    practices. In 2022, Green Century’s President Leslie Samuelrich was nominated
    to McDonald’s board of directors, and the U.S. Humane Society has credited the
    McDonald’s board fight with helping pressure CVS* and Walgreens* to accelerate
    their transitions to cage-free eggs and pushing General Mills* and Denny’s* to
    move towards elimination of gestation crates in their pork supply chains.
    Nearly 70% of Costco shareholders in January voted in favor of a Green Century
    proposal requesting that the company set greenhouse gas emission targets.
    Green Century’s proposal prompted Costco to announce an expedited timeline for
    disclosing supply chain emissions, to commit to developing a Scope 3 action plan
    and reduction targets, and to announce its first reduction targets for its operational
    and purchased energy (Scope 1 and 2) emissions.
  • Short Term High Yield vs. CDs vs. Treasuries vs. I-Bonds
    Hi @hank. I guess I have an opposite view of this:
    Still, I’d rather be in intermediate duration AAA fixed income than cash because (1) I don’t believe these high rates can persist and (2) high quality bonds should provide better protection in the event of a stock crash.
    1- These high rates may not persist, but why not grab them while you can? I just picked up a 9 mo and a 12 mo treasury at ~5.1% today. So in that case that rate is locked in for at least those time frames. You'll make a little less moving out in duration but still can get 4.7 or 4.8 for a couple years anyway.
    2- It's not a given high quality bonds will move opposite equities as we saw last year. I might argue stocks and bonds may stay correlated through this year too. That again makes locked in rates of 5%'ish a nice safe balance to falling equities.
    Different view. No right or wrong.
  • Short Term High Yield vs. CDs vs. Treasuries vs. I-Bonds
    At least on Schwab, Treasuries pay more than a CD up to 18 mos and they are easily liquidated without a penalty and are state tax exempt.
    Two and three years CDs are 0.25 and 0.4 % ahead, but who knows what interest rates will be then.
    I had a CD got bust in 1984 or 5. While I got my money back it took many months.