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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Market Uncertainty
    Why, despite a lack of uncertainty last year, did you fail to anticipate the worst bond market in centuries? How did you not see the worst opening 6-months in the stock market in 40 years? The worst inflation since 1981?
    I don't know. On the other hand, I was very happy with the returns I had experienced with a short-term investment in bond funds that I bought because everyone said they are nearly as good for you as flossing.
    Not being a fan of bonds generally, and disappointed with the yields, I sold. I'm no Bernard Baruch, but sometimes there is something to be said for selling "too soon."
    As for inflation, if you were raised with the idea that it is the result of too much money chasing too few goods, it wasn't rocket science to wonder where we might be headed with massive tax cuts, supply chain issues, and air drop money.
    And, well, a lot of people had been commenting on the stratospheric valuations of the stock market. When hasn't that ended in tears?
    So what's the point of Barry abusing his capital letters and wearing out the italic fonts?
    If you're crossing the street against the light, and you hear horns honking, you might want to look around.
  • International: Thnking about switching
    Don't like to jump around, but losing my confidence in Int'l fund managers. Hold VWILX and MGGPX. Thinking of reducing positions and adding to VTSAX, a smoother ride. These guys did weather 2020 pretty well, but are getting beat up now. Stay the course? Thoughts needed!! Thanks!

    I've owned VWILX for several years.
    The fund has experienced significant losses YTD (-31.11%) and over the trailing 12 months (-34.31%).
    I don't have any plans to sell VWILX in the short-term.
    Guess I'm a glutton for punishment!
    Thanks for everyone's input! I haven't made any changes yet to my portfolio yet. Kind of wait and see for now. I'm of the mind, the day after I sell, will be the upswing!
  • Mechanics of Buying & Selling 5-Yr TIPS
    Yogi,
    I wonder whether there is any real advantage in buying TIPS on auction as compared to secondary market? On auction, the shortest period is 5 years. There is a chance that in one or two years inflation will be much lower, and then the advantage of TIPS for the rest of the 5 years will disappear. Meanwhile on secondary market one can buy them for about 6 months or a year, or two years. Do I understand correctly that inflation adjustment will be the same as for I-bonds? If so, why would one hesitate if one can get about 9% for a year and then invest again if inflation is still high instead of buying 5 year TIPS which will be most rewarding only at the beginning of these 5 years?
    I invested to I-bonds to the max, but I have zero experience with TIPS, so most probably I am missing something trivial.
    I really appreciate your efforts to educate us in this respect.
  • Time is your friend.
    The power of compounding is huge. Let's assume 10% return per year. Investor X started investing at age 25 $1000 monthly and stopped after 10 years. Investor Y started investing 10 years later, at age 35, investing $1000 monthly for 30 years to age 65.
    Who will have more at age 65?
    Investor X will have a lot more money, investing just 10 years VS 30 years.
  • Stock Rover Pointers
    Stock Rover (SR) Pointers
    There are several Stock Rover (SR) links for Help, FAQs, etc, so I will not try to prepare a “Guide”. Rather, as the SR site is not very user-friendly or intuitive, I will give some POINTERS for new users.
    NAVIGATION is difficult. Some features/functions appear only on relevant pages/tabs. Page FRAMES can be expanded or shrunk – note up-pointing and side-pointing ARROWS; down-pointing arrows only open the MENUS.
    FREE version is very limited. It allows creation of 10 (max) Portfolios and Watchlists but doesn’t allow Table-displays or any analytics. DASHBOARD will show overall summaries including portfolio value, G/L, daily changes; PORTFOLIO right-PANEL (expandable with side-arrow) shows basic portfolio details. If you want to use SR just for QUOTES and CHARTS, the FREE version may be fine.
    CHARTS are not linkable but can be SAVED as images (so, this eliminates taking a screenshot). To POST them elsewhere, use copy-and-paste, site upload/attachment feature or an image hosting site link to share/post.
    WATCHLISTS have tickers only, but PORTFOLIOS have tickers, quantities, purchase prices.
    PORTFOLIO details and analytics are available with PREMIUM and PREMIUM PLUS. Premium has full portfolio functionality, but Premium Plus allows for larger (600 tickers vs 250 tickers) and more (60 vs 25) Portfolios and Watchlists. Premium Plus has many other advanced features. Unfortunately, Essentials doesn’t have much portfolio functionality. So, PREMIUM should be fine for serious portfolio users. https://www.stockrover.com/plans/why-go-premium/
    Portfolios to be IMPORTED should have required Excel columns for tickers, quantities, costs/share. For M* Portfolio (that don’t have these 3 columns present in any tab/view), use Export from Tracking==>Gain/Loss to your PC. Insert a column for Tickers and add tickers (using another M* tab/view or from memory), then IMPORT into SR; Name/Rename (see below). SR Portfolio basically starts fresh from the import date; old transaction history at M* (or elsewhere) will be lost. Multiple Portfolios can be COMBINED.
    For SR-IMPORT, Click PORTFOLIO on the left-menu, make sure that Portfolio HEADING is clicked/highlighted in the main page (down-ARROW will show full Menu), then from the Menu or the right-PANEL, choose CREATE PORTFOLIO. Entries can then be made MANUALLY, or portfolio IMPORTED from Excel (with Tickers, quantities, costs/share columns), or via CONNECTION to selected brokerages (I won't be trying that). Steps are similar for importing a WATCHLIST, but some options shown are different.
    Portfolio TOOLS/Future SIMULATION can be used to conduct SYSTEMATIC WITHDRAWALS/INVESTMENT studies with various other options.
    CASH row can be displayed in Portfolio Table (from Portfolio, EXPAND Portfolio panel to see the option for cash display). ADJUSTING CASH (transactional) is by click on every buy/sell. Fully SOLD positions are not deleted from the record (so that performance calculations remain accurate).
    LAST-CLOSE prices are updated after next market open. This is to properly indicate price change data. (this is unusual as most want complete updates by evening, but SR notes that this would make all changes 0)
    YIELDS are forward yields. FUND YIELDS include CG distributions. Most financial data are for CALENDAR years and for GAAP accounting with applicable RESTATEMENTS. DIVIDENDS are shown as cash and must be reinvested manually. However, Portfolio Analytics does dividend reinvesting internally.
    Standard deviation (SD; 1-yr, 3-yr) is based on DAILY returns and then ANNUALIZED (using sqrt(252) = 15.87 or 16); multiply by 100 to show as %. The SR SD values are much higher than those from M* and Portfolio Visualizer (PV) that use monthly returns. Unfortunately, SR just uses a WEIGHTED-AVERAGE of component SDs for PORTFOLIO SD and that is an overestimation (as it ignores cross-correlations). SUMMARY VALUES in portfolio Tables are also weighted-averages (so, not good for Portfolio MPT data) except for ratios such as P/E, P/B, P/S etc for which harmonic-averages are used. Negative P/Es are replaced by blanks.
    LIMITATIONS
    SR system is POSITIONS-based, not TRANSACTIONS-based. INTRADAY trades are netted for the day; holding SALE prices are closing prices only (default) – so all G/L are approximations.
    Prices are delayed 1-5-15 minutes. Tables and charts REFRESH manually on browser refresh but can be set to Auto-Refresh at 1-5-10 minutes (OFF by default) in Preferences for Premium and Premium Plus.
    LINK
  • Time is your friend.
    @Crash. Good points. My comment was directed more at young and middle aged investors. I don’t think either of the following is inconsistent with the advice @Bobpa shared: (1) gradually shifting to a more conservative allocation over the years commensurate with age or (2) allocating a small % of one’s holdings to tactical / speculative gambits - if so inclined. In addition, gradually adjusting one’s portfolio positioning relative to the highly unusual interest rate environment that has evolved in recent years (as many here have done) would seem wise. Even Dodge and Cox is in the process of reviewing / modifying their highly successful Balanced fund (DODBX) - I suspect due to that rate environment.
  • Your buy - sells July forward
    I bought a very small amount of SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) and plan to let it sit for many years through the inevitable ups and downs. Also added to SHGTX, FSMEX, FSCSX and MSFT and I'll likely add to these positions if the market continues to puke. My only concern is that the manager of SHGTX (Paul Wick) is getting on in years and might not be there much longer. Hope they retire his jersey, he's a Hall of Famer. Looks like a strong bench though.
  • God Bless America ETF in registration
    IMO it's another grift and the latest political-oriented ETF to be created in the past few years. To my knowledge they sound nice to some, but I don't think they have much traction or volume. We saw the same thing in crypto-land recently with the roll-out of a nonsensical sh*tcoin named after a popular insult to the current POTUS.
    At the risk of starting a flame war, over the past few decades, it's brutally clear that 'Americana' (imagery, slogans, etc) has been hijacked and/or co-opted by one political party for reasons none other than to gain and maintain political power. Full stop.
    I'll say no more to keep this thread relevant to the OP.
  • CrossingBridge Funds 2Q22 Commentary
    I second the above from MikeM. As along time holder of RPHIX, since Dr. Snowball first reviewed it here on MFO and a more recent owner of CBLDX, David you truly have managed to be an ace in the past year with both funds in the 1st quartile as assigned by M*. RPHIX has had a positive YTD which is remarkable for the past 7 months. CBLDX has had minor loss in the 1-2 2% range which is a heap better than all of my other fixed income funds. That is why I have entrusted you with a multiple of 6 figures. Except for 1 minor dip a few years back in RPHIX you have managed to ascertain the " Money Good " opportunities with success and have reliably done well by your investors. We also have a large portion of "Dry Powder" as you do and being conservative when appropriate is a winning proposition. Thanks Again. Fundly
  • What's on your buy list?
    @BenWP
    @WABAC: thanks for all the research you put into compiling your buy list and for sharing it here. I share your interests in infrastructure (PAVE and GLFOX chez moi), water (FIW) and green energy. GRID was unknown to me. I have added recently to BHCFX and I agree with having exposure to healthcare and biotech. PTH is also one I've never heard of. BUSFX comes up blank; is that Bridgeway Ultra Small Company?
    That should be BUFSX for Buffalo small cap growth. I first bought it when it was expensive. :( So I added to it since it became cheaper. Good thing for me that I can let it sit for six years, until I need to think about RMD's. Maybe then I'll think about simplifying the motley collection that is my IRA.
    In the small cap area I am also a fan of RWJ, which is revenue weighted S&P small cap fund. I have it in our IRA's for total return. I haven't added to it yet. But I'm thinking about it. I am also thinking of adding it to my taxable holdings, which are less focused on dividends than my wife's.
    I rely heavily on MFO premium to do research on all funds. I also use etf.com as a quick look at the thesis, and holdings, of an etf. I enjoy researching the funds. So I don't mind sharing. It has been something of a warmup to writing up plan for my wife, children, and any others, to understand why it was put together the way it was.
    With GLFOX. FIW, and a utility I always think of the railroads, Water Works, and The Electric Company in Monopoly. It gives me a silly amount of pleasure.
    I have looked at PAVE in the past. But GLFOX has been such a pleasure to own I didn't feel the need. GRID seemed like an interesting bet even before the war in Ukraine disrupted energy markets. I like its international exposure given the way European summers have been trending.
    If you ever find yourself thinking about trash, check out EVX. Not enough of a dividend for me though.
  • CrossingBridge Funds 2Q22 Commentary
    Thanks for the post @davidsherman. I've been a happy owner of RPHYX since it reopened in 2020 (waited years for that reopening :) ) and earlier this year started to invest in SPC. Being a new fund, the investment in SPC comes from trust in your money management and conservative capital preservation style.
  • Calling EDGAR experts at MFO
    If you are concerned with performance over a brief interval like five years, especially the most recent five years, I can't imagine this discussion is relevant. Either EDGAR will give you the report(s) you need, and non-EDGAR sources will often be easier.
    My goal is different. I'm looking at historical performance over multiple decades, and more especially, year-by-year expense ratios. The pre-2000 reports, at least by Vanguard, contain year-by-year performance back 20 years or even to inception, which doesn't seem to be the norm for fund reporting today. Helpful when a fund has disappeared from M*
    Then as now the "Financial Highlights" section of the AR gives expense ratios for each of the trailing five years. So with mfs' help, I now have these back to 1989 (from 1994 reports), as opposed to being stuck at 1998, before I called for help. Prior to 1989 I go to my Wiesenberger yearbooks; and prior to 1945, to the 1939 SEC report.
    Yah, I don't get out much.
    Please help a dummy. I cant’ understand what is the practical significance of this research. Please show me how one could use this data to compare the 5 year total return of two otherwise similar funds. Or in other words is this data point useful?
  • NRDBY Nordea Bank ADR div. (Helsinki HQ)
    I hope this link will "translate" and appear here LIVE, properly. Here's a ton of statistics about NRDBY from TRP. These numbers are under the heading of "fundamentals." The stock is on my watchlist there, when I sign into my brokerage account.
    **********
    Edited to add: Nope, the scumbags won't let me cut-and-paste it. The link refuses to appear. I will transcribe it, below:
    (By the way, the stock was up on Monday, 18 July '22 by over +6% on that Earnings "beat" from loan-interest growth.)
    P/E. TTM. 8.88
    P/S. 3.66
    P/B. 0.98
    Price/Cash Flow. 5.68
    Quick Ratio = zero. (What is THIS?)
    Current Ratio 0.68
    Long Term Debt to Equity: 397.13
    Total Debt to Capital: 86.66
    Revenue Growth, 3 years: DOWN -6.89
    EPS growth, 3 years: +24.54
    EPS growth, 1 year: +76.94
    Gross profit margin: zilch.
    Operating Profit: 43.52
    Net Profit Margin: 33.37
    ROE. 11.59
    ROA. 0.68
    Return on Investment: 2.35
    Asset turnover: 0.02X
    Inventory turnover: zero.
    These numbers DO specifically apply to the ADR. I dunno if this stuff will change anyone's mind about the stock. And of course, these metrics can look "ootsy" when applied to BANKS, specifically, compared to other sorts of companies.
    ......And don't forget the current dollar strength.....OK, then. As the old Texaco tv commercial used to tell us: "Happy Motoring!"
  • Calling EDGAR experts at MFO
    Interesting that if one backtracks to general search page from either the new/current or Classic Edgar (and even the link provided by @msf), one gets to the same search page/URL:
    https://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch.html
    https://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch.html
    The historical/archival search link noted by @mcq seems to be available only from Edgar – Search & Access click (on the left menu)
    https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/srch-edgar
    “Welcome to the archive of historical EDGAR documents. This search allows you to enter complex queries to retrieve all but the most recent day's EDGAR filings (from 1994 through 2022). If a simple search will suffice or if you need real-time, up-to-the-minute filings, please visit the main EDGAR Search page for other choices.”
    It seems that Edgar has evolved over the years and some features are buried deeply within other clicks/tabs.
  • Calling EDGAR experts at MFO
    As a further update, and in the spirit of leaving bread crumbs behind for anyone else who wants to attempt such a search, on some other mutual fund:
    -Even classic EDGAR stops about 2001, limited to trailing 20 years at a guess. Even entering the old name ("Vanguard Index Trust") doesn't pull up anything earlier.
    -Casting around, I found this page: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search-and-access. At the very bottom of the page is a link to EDGAR archives. That sounded promising. It took me to this page: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/srch-edgar. Bingo: searching here for Vanguard 1994 to 2000 brought up the annual reports from the 1990s. (N-30D is the code for AR)
    -"Financial highlights" has the prior five years of expense ratios. Another tidbit: in the 1990s the norm, at least for Vanguard, was to present twenty years of trailing returns; so in the 1996 report one can see the 500 Index fund annual returns back to its inception in 1976. Will be interesting to see if other fund firms did the same. (The 500 returns are on the Simba backtesting spreadsheet at Bogleheads.org, so no treasure hunt in its case).
  • Large unplanned LT cap. gain 2022. Should a 1040-ES be filed; to pay taxes now?
    One way to "income average" is to literally sell over time. Say 10% each year. If it is income-generating land, then you could get 90% of the revenue when you retained 90% of the ownership and so on.
    That's a little messy. A way to effect something similar is to make the transaction a seller-financed sale and collect installment payments. I would have thought that such a sale would be treated as two separate transactions - a competed sale now, and a mortgage where you are the lender.
    But Congress (IRC § 453) long ago decided that for installment sales, capital gains would not be recognized until payments were made. Since the payments are made over several years, this becomes another way to spread the recognized capital gains over time.
    IRS Topic 705 - Installment Sales
    Form 6252 - Installment Sale Income
    Pub 537 - Installment Sales
  • Calling EDGAR experts at MFO
    There is a "classic" version of EDGAR? Who knew?
    Love the dig at New Coke. A staple of branding lectures for years when I started teaching in the 1980s.
    Thanks again, msf! And thanks to everyone who keeps this board going, it has already proved quite the resource.
    I think this is the result you got.
    https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=0000036405
    Try switching to the "classic" version. As M* and Coke have demonstrated, "new" is not necessarily improved.

    This "SEC classic" page links to filings all the way back to 1994.
    https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=0000036405&owner=exclude
    Until 1998 the fund was known as Vanguard Index Trust 500 Portfolio.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB852585751767090500
  • Pelosi bought lots chips techs last few days
    I'm not a stock picker. But I have been buying tech funds for our accounts the past ten days or so. These include TDV, FSCSX, CSGZX, and FTEC. In a sector as diverse as tech, I like to spread my bets around. And I don't mind a little active management.
    Prices are down quite a bit. It's not like the importance of tech to our lives will fade away. These sort of tech-specific funds are around 8-10% of our portfolios. And I still have cash on hand should rising rates lead to even better opportunities.
    I have not bought any chip-specific funds. Forty years of reading the San Francisco Chronicle business section has left me with the feeling that I'm not nimble enough for getting in and out of chips that don't come in bags from the store. If Paul Pelosi thinks he's nimble enough at his age, more power to him.
  • Calling EDGAR experts at MFO
    Suppose I want to find the year by year expense ratio for some mutual fund of interest--in this example, the Vanguard 500 Index fund, originally VFINX. Easy enough to get its performance from M* etc. back to its beginning in 1976, and easy enough to get the S&P index performance over that period from the SBBI. Subtracting the two gives an estimate of expenses, but only an estimate; strictly speaking, the subtraction gives tracking error, not expenses incurred.
    Like all funds, it files at the SEC and these filings go into the EDGAR database. Naively, since EDGAR goes back to 1994 (I am told), I hoped to get those expense ratios from EDGAR, and maybe, in my dreams, find a 10-year trailing table back to 1984 from the 1994 filing. Add seven years of Wiesenberger yearbooks and I'd be done.
    But when I enter the ticker at the EDGAR search engine, 2013 is the oldest report listed. However, that search was entered at the "front page" and I am a naïve EDGAR user.
    Some members here will not be naïve EDGAR users. Do you know how to get a pre-2013 filing on VFINX online? Or where else might you send me for that year by year data on expense ratios? (I have John Bogle's data on expense ratios for Vanguard as a whole, but that doesn't answer my question)
    Why do I care? Tracking error can be positive, due to security lending etc. Only with a separate calculation of expense can one vet how well fund management did given the expenses they were dealt. Not so important with an index fund, maybe; more so with the ordinary sort of fund.
    PS: were this data to be available in MFO Premium, please tell me!
  • Barron's Midyear Roundtable
    A.J. Cohen has had quite a career. Years ago, I noted any public statement she might make. Later, it always seemed she was..... WRONG.
    On Rukeyser’s show she seemed always the optimist. Nick-named “Gabby” by some back than. I feel in hindsight that was unfair. Of course, in those days she was with Goldman Sachs, not teaching as today. Whatever one thinks of her forecasting skills, I’d say those are some fortunate students.