@JonGaltill: I am reluctantly facing the fact that my current SCG funds would have to rally an amazing amount to get me back to level. The arithmetic is against me.
SCV has had some success, notably Bridgeway’s BRSVX. Charles’ write up on bond, equity, and alternative funds above water this year mentions Aegis Value. The manager looks to be a genius by transforming AVALX into a highly concentrated fund, 71% basic materials and 23% energy; that is not a diversified fund in my mind’s eye. The value equity funds that showed some success YTD all hold big energy positions. My fave, one that did not make the list, is GQEPX, up 6% YTD. It is wrongly classified as a LCG fund by M*, but the holdings tilt towards value.
The managed futures egg heads really look like geniuses this year; several AQR offerings and PIMCO’s PQTAX are shooting the lights out. However, those are funds I have never considered for purchase because they were real plodders for many years and my understanding of what they do is inadequate. PQTAX holds 40% in the home town commodities fund; will the PMs of these concentrated funds be able to turn their ships around quickly when the prices of « stuff » return to earth? Will alternative funds resume their pedestrian ways when the current crisis wanes?

@ Derf- Even in hot-to-trot California things are dicey. A recent survey found that almost 25% of existing charging stations are either inaccessible or out of service at any given time. By far the larger factor is the installation of home charging stations: how many people are actually going to wait for half an hour or more to charge at some public station? Especially if when they get there they have to wait in line for a charger to become available?
By the way, the survey that I mentioned did not include any Tesla charging stations- those are not available to the general public- only Tesla vehicles.
I get the distinct impression that many of the upcoming electric vehicles will start availability in the next couple of years. How many years does anyone think that it's going to take to get a reasonably sufficient charging infrastructure into place? And who exactly is going to pay for all of that?
None of this should be interpreted to suggest that I'm against the transition- in the long run, it's necessary. But I'm very skeptical that it's going to be a smooth one.
☞ Link to article: "California wants more electric cars. But many public chargers don’t work"

@Crash- Your pic is eerily reminiscent of my year of isolated duty as an electronics tech at Tarumpitao Point on Palawan Island in the Philippines. The Coast Guard had chains of very high-powered navigation broadcast stations all over the word at that time (1950s/60s), many located in very isolated and remote areas. (Those stations were made obsolete by satellite GPS technology.)
Certainly one of the best years of my life.

I think this is one of the more interesting tech stories this year. . . and my interest has ZERO to do with politics or free speech. It has to do with the mismanagement of the company for many years and how Elon will turn it around in short order. He's already (cryptically) presented some creative ideas on how to turn around the company. He's a prolific user of Twitter and spends close to ZERO on advertising. Why would he? He's had the audience of Twitter etc. I continue to think he's three steps ahead of everyone else.
Will there be obstacles in the purchase? You bet! Re: The "Delay" Lawsuit - It's interesting that the plaintiff stands to gain $20M from the sale Edit/Add: and the pension fund will be negatively impacted (in a big way) if the sale doesn't go through. Oh, and if he had a pre-arrangement with Dorsey et al... why would he have threatened a "tender"? A tall leap by the pension fund and even a "pact" does not equal 15% single interested stockholder.
There's plenty of people against the idea. His financing and concentration will not be an obstacle. I'd bet on that.

On a different note, ISTM cash for acquisitions is nice to possess now. Correct me if wrong, but it seems a lot of M&A activity in recent years has been financed by borrowing. With rates rising that’s become a lot more expensive and activity has slowed. (Barron’s notes the slowdown in this weeks edition.) So Buffett would seem to be able to negotiate a “better deal” (better price ) with his pile of cash - or am I missing something?
Edit: It’s occurred to me one might not necessarily get a “better price” with cash. More likely it’s a case of not having to compete against as wide a field of bidders. Those who would have used a leveraged loan to finance said acquisition have in a sense been priced-out of the bidding by more expensive credit. Those with cash have a competitive advantage in the bidding process.

For years Buffet was criticized for holding lots of cash.
Did he really come out ahead by keeping his "powder dry" for years? I think the numbers show that the opportunity cost of holding onto that power exceeded the benefit of waiting. While Buffett is often used as a model of patient investing, patience has its price.
He purchased about $51B worth of equity in Q1 2022 (plus repurchasing $3.2B of Berkshire Hathaway stock).
$11.6B of that was to acquire Alleghany Insurance at a 25% control premium. That's BH's primary MO - to buy control, not equity for income/gain. So IMHO we can discount this as not a "regular" investment.
Of the remaining $40B, at least $14B (35%) went into Chevron stock. You can infer this by noting that the $4.5B owned at the beginning of the year was worth 40% more at end of quarter. Subtracting that $6.B from the $25.9B owned at the end of the quarter means that BH bought shares worth $19.6B at end of quarter. The cheapest those shares could have been purchased in the quarter was $14B (at beginning of quarter).
So it is fair to focus on CVX.

• Had the same shares been purchased at the beginning of 2017 instead of the beginning of 2022, he would have made 24.6% cumulative, 4.5% annualized instead of whatever cash was paying over those five years.
• Had he purchased the shares at the beginning of 2018, he'd still have beaten cash, though not by much, with an annualized 3.02% return.
• Investing three years ago (beginning of 2019) would have yielded 7.68% annualized. Now were talking real opportunity costs.
• Two years ago? 4.07% annualized return.
• And had he invested at the beginning of 2021 instead of the beginning of 2022 or later, he would have come out a whopping 46.32% (or more) above where he wound up.

Certainly he benefited from waiting with some stocks, such as OXY. Though if we're going to look at other acquisitions, we should also look at AAPL (even though he bought "only" $600M during the quarter). Using the same links I gave above for Portfolio Visualizer analyses, one sees the opportunity costs of waiting to buy AAPL. A purchase 5 years ago (beginning of 2017) would have returned 45% annualized; 4 years ago, 45% annualized; 3 years ago, 67% annualized (!), 2 years ago, 57%; and the return he could have had by deploying that cash at the beginning of 2021 was 35%.
Even though BH didn't add much to its AAPL holdings, its worth a mention because Buffett made a big deal about buying more on a three day dip. After a multi-year meteoric rise.
FWIW, here's BH's cash and cash equivalent holdings over the past five years (always over $100B):
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/BRK.A/financials/annual/balance-sheet

+1, @DavidF. Equities are deep in Deathcross Land but near the January low, and therefore maybe ripe for a rebound, but how high and for how long? The next months, at least, are primed for bad YOY comps and disappointing earnings and growth, Fed pressure to the economic downside, and supply problems and supply chain damage via pandemic, de-globalization, and war (hot and cold) that may not be anywhere near fixed for months if not years.
On the plus side, there are a fair number of hedged, multi-asset approaches that are working well in this climate.

For years Buffet was criticized for holding lots of cash. Yet BRK-A/BRK-B stock does not pay a dividend. Now he has the cash to deploy at low prices in depressed times. He once said that the risk of stocks is greatly decreased when the price is decreased due to the market and not the fundamentals of the stock. YTD return of BRK-B is still in black while S&P500 index is down 12.6%. I invest with WB in any days over ARKK.

Yes. Be careful out there. Remember the tech bubble in 2000? Global financial crisis in 2007? S&P 500 declined 45-50% over a couple of years and took more years to recover. It happens.
Stock markets may be in the early stages of such decline, maybe not. But risks to the downside seem far greater now than any lost opportunity to the upside. Just my view as I continue to lighten my exposure.

These past few years, it's been difficult to imagine what events could finally drag down an unflinching bull market in equities. Then COVID did.....but only for 6 weeks. It was barely a blip on the radar screen.
Today we mix sky high inflation & supply disruptions + Russian conflict + rising interest rates along with Fed Balance Sheet reduction + talks of possible recession, etc. Its certainly not all doom and gloom, just reversion a bit closer to historical norms......temporarily.......until the next series of Fed interventions. Rest assured that the backstop can't be removed for too long. The Fed will always tinker. Raising rates by 50 bp per meeting must be absolutely killing Powell. God forbid he goes to 75. I wonder if he pumps his own gas or buys groceries.

PRWAX has outperformed TRBCX as well as FDGRX over the last few years.

TurboTax maker will pay $141M in settlement over misleading ads for free tax-filing
AP, via NPR

California-based Intuit Inc. will suspend TurboTax's "free, free, free" ad campaign and pay restitution to nearly 4.4 million taxpayers ...
Under the agreement, Intuit will provide restitution to consumers who started using the commercial TurboTax Free Edition for tax years 2016 through 2018 and were told that they had to pay to file even though they were eligible for the version of TurboTax offered as part of the IRS Free File program.
Consumers are expected to receive a direct payment of approximately $30 for each year that they were deceived into paying for filing services, [NY State Attorney General] James said. They will automatically receive notices and checks by mail.

Friends added soxl tsla fngu lots tech
I added brk.b Amazon tsla and vang2055 past few 7d along with Ford bonds
Cpa Merrill edge advisor told me 3d ago
Maybe soft landing prob 5-10% more down lots volatility next 4 8 wks but he does not see large recession
Prob have rally by fall winter
Expect banks commodities techs cryptos energy do well next 6 12 months
He is 58 years old...70% stocks 30% bonds fix income will retire 7 8 yrs
Personally i think could be large resistance sp500 ~3960 next 4- 10 days -if breaks may go 3700....maybe bloody red summer

The way I look at it, you’ll get at least 75% of the current inflation rate investing in I-Bonds, assuming you cash out before holding five years.
You may want to take a closer look. Here's a simple example:
- 0% inflation for the period 6-12 months ago
- 6% annualized inflation over the past six months (i.e. prices went up 3%)
If you buy an I-bond "now" and cash out in a year, you'll get 0% for six months, 3% for the next six months, and then forfeit 1.5% (the interest over the last three months). That's a net 1.5% for the twelve months you hold the savings bond - just half of the amount that prices increased over the past six (or twelve) months.
If one is cashing out before the end of five years, what one wants to do is cash out three months after the rates dip. That way, one forfeits the interest during three low-rate months. The example I gave was the opposite, where you'd be forfeiting the three highest paying months - a disproportionately high penalty.

@sma3 “If he expects a significant downturn, I would have thought he would wait.”<— He doesn’t invest this way by timing the market. He just looks at the value of the company relative to the current price and he must have thought the price was reasonable enough. That said, if he’s finding companies that are reasonably priced (finally) then perhaps we are close to a bottom after all.
Re Energy… listened to the CEO of Chevron this AM… and he said that he sees energy prices remaining high for YEARS and not just for quarters.

The way I look at it, you’ll get at least 75% of the current inflation rate investing in I-Bonds, assuming you cash out before holding five years. I bought bonds when the rate was 7.1%, and it will go up to 9.6% for the next six months. So I’m guaranteed at least 6% return, even if inflation plummets later this year. If inflation stays high, I’ll stay invested and appreciate the gains. If it drops, I’ll lose three months interest but still gain more than currently possible with any guaranteed investment.

I get occasional commentary emails from this guy Keith McCullough. Here's what he had to say yesterday. It's never all that hard to figure out where he's coming from.
"After stimulating the economy with largesse for two years, the Fed has finally been tasked to pick up their rate hike axe and break sh*t tomorrow at the FOMC Meeting. The market sees the Fed loading up 250 basis points of additional rate increases as the modal outcome for Fed Operation Break Sh*t #FOBS. And first on the chopping block? Housing."

Are not downturns by whatever we choose to name them part and parcel of our economic system? I was a grad student in American history a million years ago. It’s part of the American experience. Good times. Bad times. They come and go,,,,, sure as high tide follows the low. As the headline says ,,,, “ Recession is inevitable.” Only the timing is newsworthy.
LB

Just a reminder that overnight futures are a poor indicator of the next day's activity. I've seen it flip back the other way too many times.
Make a plan if you don't have one, and then stick to it (even if that means holding tight). Maybe now more than in recent years, its probably a good idea to re-assess your risk tolerance and adjust accordingly.

“So the market has not bottomed yet.”
There’s a 99% chance that’s true. “The market” may not bottom for many months or years yet. If someone has a reliable indicator that will signal the exact bottom, please share. Better still, if someone can announce that one day ahead of time, it would allow us extra time to begin aggressive buying. :)
Now - if you thought a certain fund was worth owning or buying 5 or 6 months ago when it was 10-15% more expensive than today, wouldn’t you love to buy more at today’s 10-15% discount? Or were we blindsided back than - completely unaware that inflation was rising, Russia had designs on Ukraine and had already annexed Crimea, and interest rates were absurdly low and would surely need to rise some day?
Here’s an article from the NYT dated December 4 saying that Russia appears to be preparing to invade Ukraine. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/04/us/politics/russia-ukraine-biden.html