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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Chart Of The Day: S&P 500 PE Ratio 1900-Present
    Am I reading this right? The P/E ratio during financial crisis reached 150? How come we never heard about this when it did?
    what happens when a company actually does not have a P/E ratio. Do they just ignore it in calculation or what???
  • Treasury, IRS OK Annuities In 401(k) Target Date Funds
    With respect to "skimming", do a search on "annuitization puzzle". Here's the first hit I got:
    https://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.25.4.143 (Journal of Economic Perspectives)
    "In his Nobel Prize acceptance speech given in 1985, Franco Modigliani drew attention to the "annuitization puzzle": that annuity contracts, other than pensions through group insurance, are extremely rare. Rational choice theory predicts that households will find annuities attractive at the onset of retirement because they address the risk of outliving one's income, but in fact, relatively few of those facing retirement choose to annuitize a substantial portion of their wealth." (From the abstract)
    "The theoretical prediction that many people will want to annuitize a substantial portion of their wealth stands in sharp contrast to what we observe. Only a tiny share of those who reach retirement age with money in a personal retirement account or other financial assets will choose to annuitize a substantial share of that wealth. Part of the reason is that only 21 percent of defined contribution plans even offer annuities as an option (PSCA, 2009), and virtually no 401(k) plans do." (From the text.)
  • Regulators Looking into Bond Funds with Hard to Sell Assets.
    Howdy @JohnChisum
    Not to you; but thoughts about the information presented in the article.
    We, being "investors"; operate, in part, that we have the presumption of the full faith and credit of supposed to big to fail soverign governments (central banks) to have our back side when things don't go well in the financial system.
    The ultimate concern for individual investors should be restrictions that could be put in place to access one's own monies. And yes, such restrictions are only a matter of a decision that it is the right thing to do during a financial stress situation.
    As to the center point of the article. High yield or junk bonds and related poorer quality debt exist for the sole fact that those organizations and/or companies placing these financial instruments into the market place are perceived or known to be "on the edge" with the ability to honor a full payback of the monies "loaned" to them by the investors in the bonds issued.
    It does not matter who the issuing entity may be. One needs to ask whether they are more comfortable or comfortable at all; investing in bonds issued by "some" countries (make your own list) or the HY bonds being issued (for example) by well known company names in the U.S., who have such hugh existing debt burdens and "on the edge" of profitable operations; but still need more money to continue to attempt to operate their business model and keep their heads above the waterline of profit.
    A list of holdings (via prospectus) of junk debt issues helps to indicate how much one may have their monetary butts hanging over the "other" side of the quality fence. The same may apply to some of the equity holdings of various mutual funds.
    While I can't disagree with premise of the article; there remains such a tight correlation between junk debt and equities (supposed high quality companies or not); that this "financial intercourse" keeps both areas on the edge, and relying upon one another.
    If the junk credit issues where to crumble, the financial fallout in equity sectors would be widespread, eh?. We witnessed this event 6 years ago.
    Below are two common, and widely used indicators.
    A total return view from the period of Oct., 2007 (when indicators started to become "rough") through March 4, 2009:
    SPY = -51%
    HYG = -27%

    We all have to pick our own investment poison (during the bad times); with the only apparent difference being that some will make one's investments more sick than the other.
    We rely, in part; upon the bond rating agencies, with their abilities and with the data they are provided, to present what we believe to be the facts relative to bond qualities.
    Even to the fact of whether one is supposed to take more comfort in a circumstance that the ECB may purchase "junk" credit issued by Greece (not picking on this country, but an existing circumstance); because no one else wants to buy the bonds. Magic money moves from the ECB to the central bank of country "x". Is this supposed to help me feel better that something, if anything; has been fixed? Not at this house. The "electronic" credit, the money loaned, is parked as a data file for a spreadsheet. What the heck becomes of the outstanding monies that were lent?
    The above thinking is based upon course studies over many years; resulting in the "Whatsamatter U" diploma hanging on the wall, at this house. :) The degree didn't cost much; and that may be evident in this write.
    Take care of you and yours,
    Catch
  • John Waggoner: Can You Retire On A $1 Million ?
    That is the key. A lot of people do not know how to be frugal. They grew up spoiled by their parents or parent who couldn't say no. That is the end result when they are adults. There is a lot of stuff people can cut back on. Going to the movies every week? Bad habits like pubs or clubs most nights of the week. Eating out all the time instead of cooking at home. The list is huge.
    As for the question of attaining a million being easier for older people, my opinion is that we were raised by folks who endured the Great Depression and WW2. They taught us to spend wisely and save for the future. Somehow the lesson got lost as generations went by and now young children have iPhones and parents spoil them silly. Us older people were working in our school years already. Summers might mean picking berries or whatever was local. Now there are restrictions on how much young people can work.
    My keys to attaining a lot of money? Learn the discipline of saving early on. Even if the amount is small, it is that discipline that gets ingrained into one's mind and eventually you are putting several hundreds into your retirement accounts. (depending on your salary of course) Another key is to quit loaning money to the government in the form of overpaying your taxes. How many people get huge refunds every year? A lot. For example if you got $3000 back on your taxes that works out to $115 each paycheck. (3000 divided by 26) That money could be going to your 401k etc. Reduce your withholding so that you get close to break even. As you put more money into your tax deferred accounts, your taxable income goes down more and that provides you with even more money to put away. Usually big refunds get spent on adult toys or vacations etc.
    If you get a bonus or a raise, think about what would happen if that hadn't happened. Put those raises and bonuses into your retirement accounts too.
    How was my life after all that? I ate well, drove new cars, went on vacations etc. I wasn't deprived of the good things in life, I just knew what my limits were. I never let credit cards ruin my financial plan. That is very easy to do. I had a average middle class wage at my work but I did work OT and that also was saved. By the time I was in my early thirties I had my first $100k. Getting to $200k was much faster. The curve really takes off once you hit a certain amount. My accounts continued to soar as I kept to my plan. I won't tell exactly how much here but it is substantial. I was fortunate to have a good bull market. That is something we don't know or can predict. I made my share of mistakes as well. I pulled out of my funds after Oct 1987. That crash rattled me but it was a learning experience and I didn't make that mistake a second time. I thought about buying AAPL at $18. Hindsight. Thats water under the bridge now. I had money in Twentieth Century Ultra fund when it rose 87% one year. I had money in the TRowe Price New Asia fund when they had some booming years early on. Gold was spectacular in the early 2000's. I guess those made up for the mistakes.
    The main point is to keep pumping the money away and whenever you have an opportunity to increase that, go for it. It's called paying yourself first.
    I apologize for the long post. I didn't mean to drift off here but I wanted to share my experience and maybe someone can use some of my tips to increase their assets.
    Hey, JohnChisum!
    You stole this from me, didn't you????????? ;)
  • John Waggoner: Can You Retire On A $1 Million ?
    That is the key. A lot of people do not know how to be frugal. They grew up spoiled by their parents or parent who couldn't say no. That is the end result when they are adults. There is a lot of stuff people can cut back on. Going to the movies every week? Bad habits like pubs or clubs most nights of the week. Eating out all the time instead of cooking at home. The list is huge.
    As for the question of attaining a million being easier for older people, my opinion is that we were raised by folks who endured the Great Depression and WW2. They taught us to spend wisely and save for the future. Somehow the lesson got lost as generations went by and now young children have iPhones and parents spoil them silly. Us older people were working in our school years already. Summers might mean picking berries or whatever was local. Now there are restrictions on how much young people can work.
    My keys to attaining a lot of money? Learn the discipline of saving early on. Even if the amount is small, it is that discipline that gets ingrained into one's mind and eventually you are putting several hundreds into your retirement accounts. (depending on your salary of course) Another key is to quit loaning money to the government in the form of overpaying your taxes. How many people get huge refunds every year? A lot. For example if you got $3000 back on your taxes that works out to $115 each paycheck. (3000 divided by 26) That money could be going to your 401k etc. Reduce your withholding so that you get close to break even. As you put more money into your tax deferred accounts, your taxable income goes down more and that provides you with even more money to put away. Usually big refunds get spent on adult toys or vacations etc.
    If you get a bonus or a raise, think about what would happen if that hadn't happened. Put those raises and bonuses into your retirement accounts too.
    How was my life after all that? I ate well, drove new cars, went on vacations etc. I wasn't deprived of the good things in life, I just knew what my limits were. I never let credit cards ruin my financial plan. That is very easy to do. I had a average middle class wage at my work but I did work OT and that also was saved. By the time I was in my early thirties I had my first $100k. Getting to $200k was much faster. The curve really takes off once you hit a certain amount. My accounts continued to soar as I kept to my plan. I won't tell exactly how much here but it is substantial. I was fortunate to have a good bull market. That is something we don't know or can predict. I made my share of mistakes as well. I pulled out of my funds after Oct 1987. That crash rattled me but it was a learning experience and I didn't make that mistake a second time. I thought about buying AAPL at $18. Hindsight. Thats water under the bridge now. I had money in Twentieth Century Ultra fund when it rose 87% one year. I had money in the TRowe Price New Asia fund when they had some booming years early on. Gold was spectacular in the early 2000's. I guess those made up for the mistakes.
    The main point is to keep pumping the money away and whenever you have an opportunity to increase that, go for it. It's called paying yourself first.
    I apologize for the long post. I didn't mean to drift off here but I wanted to share my experience and maybe someone can use some of my tips to increase their assets.
  • John Waggoner: Can You Retire On A $1 Million ?
    Again, very enlightening thread. I am not wealthy nor am I even rich. I'm just fortunate to be debt/mortgage free and live in one of the lowest cost of living areas in the entire U.S. I am sure there are some here whose investable assets, aka nest egg, dwarfs mine. However, there is a *huge* discrepancy between my lifespan expectancy of around 18 more years and my nest egg expectancy and in favor of my nest egg. Even if I live to 100 (33 more years) there is still a huge discrepancy and that is assuming I simply live off principal only and never invest/trade again. The bottom line I guess is I need to step up my spending big time. Like maybe purchase that vacation home outside of Asheville in Black Mountain. Easier said than done though if you lived a lifetime mastering the art of frugality and always fearful you are going to revert back to your days of living in abject poverty. Maybe I need to see a financial shrink!!!! No, that costs money. Anyway, I am off for week hiking in NC. So best of luck next week growing those nest eggs.
  • John Waggoner: Can You Retire On A $1 Million ?
    1. I agree that many financial "articles", including this one, are silly.
    2. This article is really about asset allocation in retirement; the rest is cheap window dressing to frame the article. ($50K/$1M were simply neat round numbers for illustrative purposes.)
    3. Waggoner errs in adding extra for income taxes - he's trying to match household income, and like IRAs, that's pretax also. (That is, income taxes come out of the $50K household earnings.)
    Regarding people's comments here:
    - IMHO health is one of the two big variables in retirement planning. The other is longevity. These are both areas where insurance can be invaluable - Medicare/Medigap or Medicare Advantage (Part C) for the former, and longevity insurance (deferred income annuity) for the latter. But they're not without cost.
    - NYC - the median household income in Brooklyn is $45K; even in Manhattan is it "just" $67K. (Slate: Brooklyn's Median Household Income is Less Than $45,000 - Jan 9, 2014). One can get by, even in NYC on less than $50K, but the key phrase is "get by".
    - Berkeley - I'm with davidrmoran on this one. $12K/year is foodstamp level income for one person, let alone three. Anywhere in the country. And unlike NYC, the Bay Area tends to be more homogeneous in housing/living costs (harder to find affordable pockets). From the Berkeley Pier to Walnut Creek (where there is no longer a T. Rowe Price office), from Baghdad by the Bay to Silicon Valley, the cost gradient is miniscule.
  • John Waggoner: Can You Retire On A $1 Million ?
    The premise of the article, though, seems a bit shaky. It's a bit unlikely that someone would have $1m in an IRA and no other source of income, such as SS. But as has been pointed out on MFO, endlessly: most of the financial stuff out there is logical garbage, typically written (or spoken) to emphasize some particular viewpoint, and removed from a reasonable overall context.
  • Income Securities Advisor Newsletter
    I am not familiar with this newsletter but I do remember Richard Lehmann. He is sometimes a guest on various financial shows.
    My opinion only but I favor learning on your own. Read opinions of many smart investors for free on the web and by listening on the television. MFO is a good place for opinion and knowledge.
    There are no sure fire portfolios or methods of investing. If they were so good why would they share their secret at $195 /yr? There's the answer. I would guess that Mr. Lehmann makes a good income stream from this newsletter.
  • John Waggoner: Can You Retire On A $1 Million ?
    FYI: If you read any financial advertising, you know that your savings are inadequate, and you're likely to freeze to death in the dark a few weeks after retirement. For this reason, most Americans' retirement planning involves keeling over at their desks, or, failing that, starting a bomb-disposal unit as a retirement business.
    But how much is enough? How about $1 million
    Regards,
    ted
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/columnist/waggoner/2014/10/23/can-you-retire-with-1-millio/17789939/
  • Catching falling knives
    Three further comments on my "actionable advice" posting
    1. Didn't mean to suggest that people should limit their comments to "actionable advice". That's simply what I'm looking for and is easier to distill than "I like this, or don't like that (without explanation)" comments. Again, just what I'm looking for.
    2. I don't take anyone's advice, especially from an unknown source on the Internet, without determining if it's suitable for my situation first; and
    3. haven't yet concluded that the advice rendered here is of less quality that than I would receive from a paid financial advisor.
  • Catching falling knives
    I greatly enjoy Scott's threads - and don't think they were ever intended to represent "actionable advice." I sincerely hope he continues to put them up. If you read my comment closely you will see that it's this question of "actionable advice" that led me to say I'd refrain from commenting further about my investment decisions in those threads.
    Frankly - If you require "actionable advice" on where to invest your money, hire a fee-based financial planner. Get one with known credentials, excellent references, a proven track record, his or her name on a shingle out front and having a phone number you can call when you need help.
    Sorry if I've mis-nailed this one.
    ---
    *(FYI: I chopped a few rhetorical questions out of this post to keep it brief and to the point. Scott addressed some of those (and quoted from one) in his exceptionally clear and pointed response further down. Thanks Scott.)
  • Why High Yield? Why Now?
    Any time you see articles of why now is a great time to buy XYZ asset class, it's time to get cautious, IMO.
    Most of these financial writers are all talk. Their job is to write about stuff. I will bet 98 out of 100 vastly under perform a 60/40 mutual fund. By the time junk funds are on their radar screen, most of the move has probably occurred.
    From what I can tell this particular article is written by a fund company that actually has a High Yield ETF.
    Not bashing you John, just chiming in with my $0.02 fwiw.
  • M*: Updated Ratings On 18 Pimco Funds
    @msf, thanks for that info, I was not aware of that situation with Pimco. I knew that the SEC had investigated them for something but these days the SEC has been targeting a lot of financial operations.
  • Wednesday. Oct. 22. Before the Bell.
    Another good day for Asia markets today, almost matching yesterday's gains. Japan's Nikkei gained another 2.64%. Only Shanghai and Malaysia had negative outcomes. Europe is still having their troubled. It is a mixed market over there with most indices in the red.
    The news in the US appears to be equalized between the very good and the disappointing. McDonalds, and IBM are anchors in the markets where Apple and others have taken off. Chipotle Mexican Grill, one of the media favorites is not looking good so far this week. Ever notice how the financial media goes nuts over a particular stock? Starbucks, COCO, to name a couple. Cramer is probably the culprit on this.
    As always, all the best and good investing.
  • Grandeur Peak 3Q Commentary
    @Roy, Thanks for posting this. I'm not a shareholder but it's always interesting to read other reports.
    GP has built themselves quite the reputation amongst the financial sphere so I am not surprised they are the attraction of advisors. They don't advertise and so most if not all retail investors have never heard of them. Also, their funds have opened and closed in relatively short times.
    In reading, I was struck by the top five stocks on page six. All are from the Asia region. That shows how much growth is still apparent over here despite the slowdown and global malaise creeping in.
    Thanks once again.
  • Is it any wonder why CNBC is irrelevant
    Financial TV?
    All useless I agree. At times, however, it may drown-out other noises like traffic going by, planes flying over, kids shouting and trash collectors. I get a laugh out of Cramer in the morning - same as I do out of Stewart and Cobert in the evening. But would never listen to any of them for investment advice.
    For serious down-time: (1) subscribe to any number of wonderful domestic/international magazines, newspapers or blogs at Amazon, (2) get yourself a set of good bluetooth headphones ($200+) also at Amazon. (3) Load favorite music and reading content onto any number of great tablet devices (I like the Fire HD). ENJOY!
    ---
    What's available to read using the free Kindle App?
    You name it. The International NYT is $15 a month and gets delivered around 8PM EST - so you get that day's news. the regular NYT is about $20, but has a Sunday edition which the other does not.
    Barron's and WSJ - but too pricy for my taste.
    The New Yorker every Monday if you want some culture.
    The SF Chronicle at $6 a month is a steal and publishes 7 days a week
    Humor? Subscribe to The Onion.
    The Smithsonian publishes two magazines. I subscribe to the one on Aviation which is excellent. Their other publication deals more with archeology and geography.
  • Seeking A Cause After 10-Year Treasury Bond's Unnerving Move
    ***** oooooooh, I's got spurs, that jingle-jangle-jingle, as I go riding mer-ri-ly along *****
    http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/10/19/shouts-on-bond-trading-floor-yield-to-robot-beeps/
    "Until last year, the work that Q.M.M. performs was handled by human traders at JPMorgan Chase, who would shout prices into a phone and yell “Done!” when the trade was executed.
    Now, Q.M.M., which sits on the same floor as those traders in a Midtown Manhattan skyscraper, can come up with the same prices in a fraction of a second. When it completes a trade, it emits a jingling cash register sound, making the trading floor sound like an arcade."
    ..............
    "[J.P Morgan] is involved in experimental efforts like Project Neptune, a collaboration among financial firms aimed at making it easier to find specific bonds electronically.
    That will involve failures along the way when some markets don’t evolve as expected."
    Hmmm, and would these "failures" involve carbon-based investors, Mr. Rohrbaugh?