Marketwatch 02/15/09
Gold has been the preferred inflation hedge down through the ages. Investors have long prized the disaster insurance the precious metal provides during market panics and inflation surges when governments debase their currencies in response to crises.
Gold futures were trading well above $900 an ounce last week as investors were disappointed by the lack of details in the Treasury Department's latest plan to rescue the financial system.
Investors have been piling into the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). The amount of gold held by the ETF continues to set new records -- it is now backed by about 1,000 metric tons of the precious metal. SPDR Gold Shares has an expense ratio of 0.4%, although investors pay broker commissions to buy and sell ETFs.
SPDR Gold Shares is one of the largest ETFs, with about $30 billion in assets. Although it is the biggest precious-metals ETF, several other exchange-traded products are tied to gold, silver and platinum, for example. Some provide leverage. Others such as Van Eck Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) track miner shares. Investors need to be aware that gains on some futures-based commodity ETFs and ETNs can be taxed at a higher rate than those on funds indexed to stocks.

Schwab is at the bottom of the performance rankings YTD, 1 year (the only robo with single digit returns, more than a point behind second worst), and 5 year (tie for worst). Over three years it did 0.2% better than the worst.
As a blind guess without checking, I suspect the cause is cash drag, especially since Vanguard has outperformed Schab recently by more than 3%, and by more than 1% over three and five years.
Schwab ranks in the middle of the pack overall. That seems to be due to broad financial planning tools and features like Intelligent Income (mentioned by Barron's) for managing a monthly income stream. Raw performance only counts for so much; with Barron's that's 25% of the total score.

As a follow-up to @rforno’s “newbie” thread, it might be interesting to reflect on what the board looked like during 2008 - right in the middle of an eventual 17-month decline in the S&P (greater losses globally and in some domestic sectors). The period is known as ”The Global Financial Crisis” and is also sometimes referred to as ”The Great Recession”. Even money market funds had become unsafe and investors began fleeing until the government exercised extraordinary authority to backstop them.
It is easy in hindsight after these rare episodes to say: “Do nothing”, “Let it ride …” , “Just don’t look. It won’t really matter 20 years from now.” These are all intelligent responses. But is that how it really was?
Anybody recall the general tenor at Fund Alarm (predecessor to MFO) back then? And what the smart, well informed, articulate posters were generally saying? Was the general feeling one of “I’m sitting tight.”… “I’m not making any moves.”, “I’m not even looking because longer term everything will be great.”
Possibly some were reading / participating on other investment forums, or possibly some recall what their friends, family members, co-workers and / or neighbors were saying and doing.

I didn't have much money allocated to equities in 1987 since I was young and "poor."
Having read a bit about investing, I thought the 1987 market crash might present a buying opportunity.
Despite this knowledge, I didn't actually take advantage of the situation.
During the dot-com bubble (circa 1995 - 2000), I was employed in the tech industry.
Many coworkers were discussing massive gains in Yahoo, Cisco, and the like.
It was very difficult to ignore this continuous chatter - FOMO is real!
Since markets appeared to be in a bubble, I resisted the siren song of the dot-coms.
I didn't panic during the subsequent crash but should have purchased more equities afterward.
The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007 - 2008 was very challenging for me.
There were many bankruptcies, multiple bailouts, bank runs on money market funds
(Reserve Primary Fund "broke the buck"), and rising unemployment.
Congress initially rejected the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008
($700B Troubled Asset Relief Program was a component) which led to a ~9% decline
in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite that day. The legislation was passed a few days later.
The seemingly endless onslaught of severe economic events caused significant anxiety.
To me, it felt like the US economy might suffer a precipitous decline analogous to the Great Depression.
Once again, I didn't panic but should have increased equity purchases after this major crash.
I hope to never experience a similar scenario again during my lifetime!

Robo-Advisors - Barron's Rankings, 2024
Robo-advisors are now $1.09 trillion business. Those are no longer seen as steppingstones to other strategies. In fact both the young & the people approaching retirement like them. The leaders in the AUM now are all latecomers with financial &/or marketing muscle; the original pioneers Betterment & Wealthfront do have respectable presence. So, it isn't all about ERs. But the competition is tough & some big players like JPM, GS have left this business.
Performance Ranking (overall based on multiple criteria): Fidelity, Merrill, SoFi, Vanguard, Wealthfront, Betterment, Schwab, Empower, Ally, USB, E*Trade/MS, SigFig, Wells Fargo, Acorns
1-Yr Performance for Allocation 60-40: SoFi, Fidelity, Vanguard, Wealthfront, USB, Empower, Betterment, Merrill, Ally, Schwab
AUM: Vanguard, Edelman, Morningstar, Fidelity, Schwab, Betterment, Wealthfront, Guided Choice
https://www.barrons.com/articles/best-robo-advisors-c2b901fe?mod=hp_columnists

I recently opened a CMA account as a replacement for a Vanguard Cash Plus account. That is, an account where we could access a better yielding treasury only MMF and get a decent yield on FDIC-insured money (non-sweep). My SO also opened a new IRA (for promotion $$) and I added to my existing IRA for promotion $$. The experience has been largely disappointing.
On the plus side:
- good promotions: fairly high bonuses for fairly low amounts brought in; relatively short 90 period for bonus
- BofA Preferred Rewards (based on Merrill balance): increases cash back on BofA credit cards
- Decent rate on FDIC-insured account (though not a sweep account)
- Access to high yielding (institutional) MMFs with $1 mins
On the minus side:
- 24 hr phone service is limited; was told I needed to wait until 8AM for "financial advisor" to be available to deal with some issues
- preferred award system missed one new account in calculating level of benefits we were qualified for
- bond research/trading issues
Trading Treasuries:
- cannot buy Treasuries at auction except through rep with fee
- search tool is limited
--- no depth of book
--- does not display bonds if min purchase quantity is greater than one (i.e. greater than $1K)
- cannot buy a bond, even by CUSIP, if min purchase required is more than one bond
We have these accounts for the plusses above. We don't really use them for trading. E*Trade also offers access to higher yielding third party MMFs.

Is Dell really going to let over 10,000 associates go? Super micro margins going down down down....this is not good news for the markets, nor the Ai bubble... Could get interesting over the next few weeks....

I won’t wade into AI / Tech / Consumer staples or other specific sectors. But sometimes I get tired of people talking about “the markets” as if they are all unified and all move in sync. At any given time there are stocks or other assets that are overpriced and other stocks or assets that are reasonably priced or even underpriced. “Verification” is always in hindsight months or years afterward. If we knew for sure what was going to be up 6 months or a year from now and what would be lower 6 months from now investing would be a dream. We’d all be incredibly rich.
Thank you to the vast majority here who have kept politics largely out of the investing forum. Much appreciated. Let’s focus on making money, long term financial health and having some fun together. There are always lively political discussions in the OT section and we who hang out there were recently privileged to have longtime mfo member @Graust, an R, drop by for some civil chatter which takes a lot of balls to do because it’s a bit on the liberal side over there. Perspective from those who disagree is always appreciated.
Just 1 political comment here. I spoke to a neighbor yesterday who “unloaded” on the USA. The country’s “shot” / ”going to hell in a hand-basket”. The government, politicians and public servants are “all crooks”. Everything’s “rigged.” There isn’t a candidate on the ticket of either party that’s worth voting for. To top it all off, he’s so upset with things he will not vote in November!
I thanked him saying, “For every person who chooses not to vote … that makes my vote count a bit more.”

It's refreshing, almost breathtaking, that the advisor chose to speak openly and honestly about their decision. All other liquidations have either no explanation or blather about financial sustainability.

Thanks @rforno. Always one of my favorite editions of WSW. Class act. The show puts to shame whatever passes for media financial analysis today. Pity.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1924868/000199937124009530/clia-497_080524.htm
497 1 clia-497_080524.htm SUPPLEMENT DATED AUGUST 5, 2024
Filed pursuant to Rule 497(e)
Registration Nos. 333-264478; 811-23793
Veridien Climate Action ETF (CLIA)
(the “Fund”)
Supplement dated August 5, 2024
to the Summary Prospectus dated November 27, 2023, and to each of the Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) dated April 21, 2023, Tidal Investments LLC (“Tidal”), the Fund’s investment adviser, informed the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Tidal Trust II of its view that the Fund could not conduct its business and operations in an economically efficient manner over the long term due to the Fund’s inability to attract sufficient investment assets to maintain a competitive operating structure, and recommended the Fund’s closure and liquidation to the Board. The Board determined, after considering Tidal’s recommendation, that it is in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders to liquidate and terminate the Fund as described below.
In addition, the Fund’s sub-adviser, Veridien Global Investors LLC (the “Sub-Adviser”), is experiencing financial difficulties, which has led to the resignation of the Sub-Adviser’s Chief Investment Officer, who was one of the Fund’s portfolio managers. In light of her resignation, the Adviser and the Sub-Adviser have determined that the Fund’s portfolio could not be effectively managed in accordance with the Fund’s registration statement and, therefore, the Fund’s investment portfolio has been liquidated and transitioned to cash. As a result of these circumstances the Adviser and Sub-Adviser have determined that the liquidation of the Fund is advisable and in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders.
Resignation of Portfolio Manager
Effective August 2, 2024, Ariane Mahler has resigned from her position as Chief Investment Officer of the Sub-Adviser. Ms. Mahler was also a portfolio manager to the Fund. As such, all references to Ms. Mahler are removed throughout the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus, and SAI.
Liquidation
In preparation for the liquidation, shares of the Fund will cease trading on the NYSE Arca, Inc. (“NYSE”) and will be closed to purchase by investors as of the close of regular trading on the NYSE on August 16, 2024 (the “Closing Date”). The Fund will not accept purchase orders after the Closing Date.
Shareholders may sell their holdings in the Fund prior to the Closing Date and customary brokerage charges may apply to these transactions. However, from August 16, 2024 through August 20, 2024 (the “Liquidation Date”), shareholders may be able to sell their shares only to certain broker-dealers and there is no assurance that there will be a market for the Fund’s shares during this time period. Between the Closing Date and the Liquidation Date, the Fund will be in the process of closing down and liquidating the Fund’s portfolio. This process will result in the Fund increasing its cash holdings and, as a consequence, not tracking its underlying index, which is inconsistent with the Fund’s investment objective and strategy.
On or about the Liquidation Date, the Fund will liquidate its assets and distribute cash pro rata to all shareholders of record who have not previously redeemed or sold their shares, subject to any required withholding. Liquidation proceeds paid to shareholders generally should be treated as received in exchange for shares and will therefore be treated as a taxable event giving rise to a capital gain or loss depending on a shareholder’s tax basis. Shareholders should contact their tax adviser to discuss the income tax consequences of the liquidation. In addition, these payments to shareholders may include distributions of accrued capital gains and dividends. As calculated on the Liquidation Date, the Fund’s net asset value will reflect the costs of closing the Fund. Once the distributions are complete, the Fund will terminate.
* * * * *
For more information, please contact the Fund at (888) 318-0133.
Please retain this Supplement with your Summary Prospectus, Prospectus, and SAI.

Analysts await key services sector metric to gauge US vulnerability to recession as stocks in Middle East fall amid regional tension
Following are edited excerpts from a current report in The Guardian:

Global investors are bracing for further turmoil, after fears that the powerhouse US economy could be drifting towards recession sent stock markets tumbling at the end of last week. Investors in Europe, Asia and New York were spooked by US data that include worse-than-expected job numbers on Thursday, prompting concern that the world’s largest economy is in worse shape than previously thought.
The data, coupled with disappointing results from tech firms Amazon, Alphabet and Intel, led to share sell-offs at the end of last week, while Middle Eastern stocks also fell on Sunday amid persistent tension in the region. Analysts fear that any further signs of fragility in large economies could herald fresh volatility. A slowdown in Germany last month prompted analysts to warn of a recession, while a rise in interest rates by Japan’s central bank sent shares on the Nikkei index down 2,216 points, or nearly 6%, on Friday.
In the last month, the prospect of a recession in some of the world’s biggest economies has sent the cost of a barrel of Brent crude falling from almost $88 to below $78.
Closely watched economic data due this week in the US includes figures for the services sector on Monday and the unemployment claimant count on Thursday. Elsewhere, the UK is among several big economies, including China and Japan, to release service sector data on Monday.
Markets got the jitters last week after US jobs data for July showed a worse-than-expected slowdown, with 114,000 jobs created rather than the predicted 175,000. The unemployment rate increased to a three-year high of 4.3%, while US manufacturing activity also slumped, falling to an eight-month low in July as new orders tailed off.
The figures stoked anxiety that the world’s largest economy is vulnerable to a recession and may need to cut rates faster than expected to spur demand, rather than unwinding them in a more orderly fashion. So far this year, investors have grown accustomed to cooling inflation and gradually slowing employment, which appeared to be setting the scene for the Fed to begin trimming interest rates gradually.
That optimism had driven big gains in stocks: the S&P 500 is up by 12% this year, despite recent losses, while the tech-focused Nasdaq has gained nearly 12%.
But on Friday, the Nasdaq lost 2.4% to finish in correction territory – 10% off its record high, while Japanese equities recorded their worst day since the Covid-19 pandemic, with the Nikkei 225 index down 5.8%. In London, the FTSE100 blue-chip share index lost more than 120 points at one stage, down by 1.5%. Europe’s main stock indices also declined on Friday, with European technology stocks falling to their lowest level in more than six months. France’s CAC 40 hit its lowest level since last November, down more than 1%, while Germany’s DAX lost 2%.
In the US, Uber, Airbnb, Hilton International and Coca-Cola are among the big firms posting financial results this week. European bellwether stocks such as the Italian insurer Generali and Deutsche Telekom, will also report this week.
While shares slid, gold hit a new record on Friday as investors flocked to safe-haven assets. The US dollar weakened, lifting the pound by 0.5% to $1.28, and the euro by 1.2% to $1.092.

August 3rd Episode:
Mary Beth Franklin discusses Social Security's Health and Outlook:
Social Security guru Mary Beth Franklin discusses the program’s financial challenges and outlook, plus individual strategies to maximize its benefits.
Her website offers free SS tools:
https://marybethfranklin.com/

FWIW: For the past week or so the great preponderance of financial news in the Business Section of the WSJ have been negative. Major layoffs, store closings, poor performance, failure to meet analyst expectations, bankruptcies.
Just sayin'...

FWIW: For the past week or so the great preponderance of financial news in the Business Section of the WSJ have been negative. Major layoffs, store closings, poor performance, failure to meet analyst expectations, bankruptcies.
Just sayin'...

FWIW: For the past week or so the great preponderance of financial news in the Business Section of the WSJ have been negative. Major layoffs, store closings, poor performance, failure to meet analyst expectations, bankruptcies.
Just sayin'...

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/709364/000094937724000109/trf-497.htm
97 1 trf-497.htm
The Royce Fund
Supplement to the Investment, Service, and Institutional Class Shares Prospectus Dated May 1, 2024
Royce Global Financial Services Fund
The Royce Fund’s Board of Trustees approved a plan of liquidation for Royce Global Financial Services Fund, to be effective on September 9, 2024. The Fund is being liquidated primarily because it has not maintained assets at a sufficient level for it to be viable. As of the close of business on July 16, 2024, the Fund was no longer offering its shares for purchase and was not accepting any investments in the Fund.
August 1, 2024
RFS-CLOSE

Thanks for the heads-up @Mitchelg
Not really understanding options very well I dug up some information from the fund’s prospectus and also about ELNs from another source. Possibly this may prove helpful for other ”Options Dummies” like myself.
About RSPA
”The portfolio managers seek to construct the options-based income component of the Fund’s portfolio by investing in high-income, short-term ELNs with a focus on downside protection. The ELNs in which the Fund seeks to invest are hybrid derivative-type instruments that are specially designed to combine the characteristics of investing in one or more underlying equity securities or an index of equity securities and a related equity derivative, such as a put or call option (or a combination thereof), in a single note form (typically senior, unsecured debt) issued by financial institutions. The options within the ELNs in which the Fund invests will be based on the Index or on ETFs that replicate the Index, and such options will generally have covered call and/or cash secured put strategies embedded within them. When the Fund purchases an ELN from the issuing counterparty, the Fund is generally entitled to receive a premium generated by options positions within the ELN. Therefore, the ELNs are intended to provide recurring cash flow to the Fund based on the premiums received from selling the options.
“Selling a call option entitles the seller to a premium equal to the value of the option at the time of trade. When the Fund sells call options within an ELN, it receives a premium but limits its opportunity to profit from an increase in the market value of either the underlying benchmark or ETF to the exercise price of the call option (plus the premium received). The maximum potential gain on the call option embedded within the ELN will be equal to the difference between the exercise price of the option and the purchase price of the underlying benchmark or ETF at the time the option is written, plus the premium received. Accordingly, because these premiums can partially offset losses incurred by the Fund's equity portfolio, the Fund's investments in ELNs may reduce the Fund's volatility relative to the Index, while providing limited downside protection against declines in the value of the Fund's equity portfolio.”
Prospectus
About ELNs
”An Equity-Linked Note (ELN) is a debt instrument, usually a bond, where the payout is based on the underlying entity. The underlying equity of the ELN can be a collection of stocks, a single stock or an equity index. A typical ELN is usually principal-protected meaning that the investor is guaranteed the return of the initial investment, but as ELNs have become more exotic in nature, fewer ELNs are principal protected.
“Generally, the final payment is the amount invested times the gain in the underlying stock or index times a note specific participation rate. For example, if the underlying equity gains 150% during the investment period and the participation rate is 50%, the investor would receive $2.25 for every dollar invested. If the equity remains unchanged or declines, the investor receives the full investment back. However, if the underlying equity defaults, the investor will receive only what is available after bankruptcy.
“Investors should understand everything they can about the underlying equity because what may seem like a safe investment may fail. For example, in 2008 equity-linked notes tied to equity in Lehman Brothers failed. Many investors sued the broker-dealers for promising 100% principal protection and still losing money.”
Source

Half cash and half balanced? For a young worker? Just no

An optimal portfolio for many young workers (early 20s to mid 30s)
would be allocated predominantly, if not entirely, to equities.
After all, young workers' risk capacity is great and equities
generate the highest long-term returns.
But what if an inexperienced investor has never encountered
a nasty bear market like the Global Financial Crisis?
It's possible some investors may panic and sell equities when prices are extremely depressed.
Then they may decide to remain out of the "market" for years failing to capture tremendous gains.
Would it be beneficial for certain investors to start with a lower equity allocation (maybe 50% - 60%)
which can be increased after they gain experience and discover their true risk tolerance?

+1
It’s difficult to draw a line in the sand (or concrete). But if you’re under 40, dollar-cost averaging in and planning to work at least 20 more years … put it in a good low cost growth fund and let it rip. No more than 3 funds I’d say. You can withstand the +35% and -35% market whipsaws with that kind of time horizon.
I get the feeling from our friend @Joyes that his situation is different - probably an older investor.

Half cash and half balanced? For a young worker? Just no

An optimal portfolio for many young workers (early 20s to mid 30s)
would be allocated predominantly, if not entirely, to equities.
After all, young workers' risk capacity is great and equities
generate the highest long-term returns.
But what if an inexperienced investor has never encountered
a nasty bear market like the Global Financial Crisis?
It's possible some investors may panic and sell equities when prices are extremely depressed.
Then they may decide to remain out of the "market" for years failing to capture tremendous gains.
Would it be beneficial for certain investors to start with a lower equity allocation (maybe 50% - 60%)
which can be increased after they gain experience and discover their true risk tolerance?

@hank

Diversification doesn’t guarantee better returns. Generally, diversification reduces risk and lowers longer term performance. If you can, throw 100% into a single low cost S&P index fund, shut your eyes for 40-50 years while ignoring the markets. Then take a look. Chances are you’ll have more money after 40 or 50 years than you would have had in a more diversified portfolio.

The above is a myth. All you have to do is see the performance in the last 15 years of SPY compared to SPY+IWN+EEM or compared to PRWCX. Both PRWCX+SPY have better performance and lower volatility = higher Sharpe ratio. When US LC doing well it's difficult to beat them.
See results (link).

Most people who lived through the Great Depression beginning in 1929 wanted nothing to do ever again with investing. By some accounts, it was around 1950 when equities got back to their 1929 levels. Not many of us date back quite that far. However, most of us here lived through the ‘07–08 ”great financial crisis”. Domestic blue chip stocks / stock funds tanked about 50% over that 16-17 month period. International stock funds fared worse, some falling 60-70%. Only the very highest rated bond funds held up. Some funds invested in junk bonds lost 50-60% over that time.

You have just proved my point. Did diversification in other stock categories help you?
The only true diversification is thru bonds, but again, it depends on the holdings.