Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • I Bond Question
    I view savings bonds as most closely comparable to 1 year CDs, because the savings bonds are locked up for 12 months (actually as little as 11+ 1 day).
    After that, while it is true that like longer term CDs, savings bonds may be redeemed early with penalty, the two are not very comparable.
    CDs are yielding so much less than I bonds that even after subtracting out the penalty on an I bond early redemption, one still comes out ahead. One might as well think of the I bond as a one year savings bond yielding 5%+. At that rate it has "no penalty" and still looks better.
    But it gets worse for the CDs. Typically, brokered CDs (e.g. from Schwab, Fidelity, etc.) cannot be redeemed, though there may be a small secondary market for them. Even if that market exists, with rising rates, one will still lose out. OTOH, if rates fall, longer term (e.g. 5 year) brokered CDs tend to be callable. With brokered CDs, heads one loses, tails one loses.
    CDs offered through banks tend to have higher withdrawal penalties for longer term maturities. This is another reason why I prefer to compare savings bonds with 1 year CDs.
    Marcus Bank has a typical penalty schedule: 90 days interest on one 1 year CDs, and 180 days on CDs up to and including 5 years. Ally Bank is a bit better, charging just 60 days for CDs up to and including 2 years, 90 days for CDs more than 2 years up to and including 3 years, 120 days for CDs up to 4 years, and 150 days for CDs of 4 years or more.
    Baseball_Fan mentioned taxes. Interest on CDs is taxable annually (even if you leave it in the CD), unless the CD is for a term of one year or less. Taxes on savings bonds are deferred until redemption (unless you elect to recognize interest annually). Thus only CDs of one year or less get the same tax treatment (deferred until maturity) as savings bonds.
  • I Bond Question
    Only if cashing them after 12 months - you are totally locked in for 12 months, and then 3-mo penalty within 5 years.
    Cash early in the month to get interest for the WHOLE month.
    If you mean getting only the interest, then the answer is NO. You have to cash them partially electronically, or cash paper bonds in chunks.
    These restrictions are the reasons that I suggest that I-Bonds be compared with 5-yr CDs (the best national rate is only 1.79%).
    BTW, my guess is that those sitting on the fences may find the new I-Bond rate on May 1 too good to pass up. Don't hold me to it but MY guess is 8.8% (up from the current 7.12%).
  • I Bond Question
    There is a 3 month penalty for cashing Savings Bonds within 5 years. So, you should start to see interest posted AFTER 3 months. Don't worry, Uncle Sam is not stiffing you for interest (-:).
  • I Bond Question
    So, finally opened Treasury Direct Accounts (much easier than the last time I did so years ago) and bought I bonds for wife and I. When can I expect to see earned interest in my account on Treasury Direct? Thanks!
  • Fidelity Canada FICDX
    Tough to find actual peers, but it would not be too freaky to look at a CANADIAN-market Index fund, I suppose. In other news: a random walk through the park shows me the following:
    VPADX. Vang. Pacific. (10 years) +88.59%
    PRWCX. TRP. +224.02%
    MAKOX. +97.51%
    PRLAX. -4.98%
    PRMSX. +46.66%
    IRL. +13.49%
    There's a link on this page to a full list of closed-end funds trading in Toronto. But when I click on it, it downloads to my computer rather than just OPENING. That's perfect. THAT way, the list is utterly lost and in the midst of oblivion somewhere.
    https://www.tsx.com/listings/listing-with-us/sector-and-product-profiles/closed-end-funds
  • Fidelity Canada FICDX
    FICDX. +100% in 10 years. Anyone own that fund and can gloat to the rest of us?
  • Inflation: Food prices are going up — and at levels Americans haven't seen in decades
    I have been a food buyer in the grocery business for forty years. Currently our average case cost is up 13.9% year over year with more price increases coming everyday. If the current tend continues look for a 20% or more food inflation this year.
  • RCTIX - Manager Change
    This does not bother me at all in terms of whether the guy is a competent and professional investment manager. One bad event in 1997? You're making many assumptions to say he "lied about it" over 20 years later. The charge was downgraded to a non-felony. The application in question asked for whether he was "charged" with a felony and he should have checked yes. I have a buddy (lawyer) who made the exact same mistake on his Fla. bar application. In his mind over 2 decades later he remembered the event and what the final result was, not the initial charge. The Fla bar tortured this guy mercilessly even though he was a practicing lawyer for years elsewhere with no issues.
  • Inflation: Food prices are going up — and at levels Americans haven't seen in decades
    You heard wrong. Y/Y inflation for 1952 (70 years ago) ranged from a high of 4.3% (Jan) to a low of 0.8% (Dec). Not a year of high inflation.
    Y/Y inflation remained below 5% until the spring of 1969. The only double digit Y/Y figures come from 1974-1975 and 1979-1981, peaking at 14.8% in March 1980. I'm sure those periods ring economic bells for some people.
    My data source is the Bureau of Labor Statistics: https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost
    (Select "More Formatting Options", and then select the checkbox "12 month percent change")
    What is your source?
  • What are you buying - if anything?
    Howdy folks,
    @yogibearbull Yeppers, you are absolutely correct. Not only can there be issues with different rules for different countries, but bullion ETF are taxable as collectibles at 28%. This means you always keep these in either a deferred or tax exempt account.
    I've owned CEF for years with no problems.
    thanks,
    rono
  • M* acquisition

    I understand this will be part of their just-launched Wealth Management Solutions Group which consolidates a bunch of related services.....
    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/morningstar-plans-to-acquire-leveraged-commentary--data-301516351.html
    CHICAGO and SEATTLE, April 4, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Morningstar Inc. (MORN), a leading provider of independent investment research (Nasdaq: MORN), has reached an agreement to acquire Leveraged Commentary & Data (LCD), a market leader in news, research, data, insights, and indexes for the leveraged finance market from S&P Global. The purchase price is up to $650 million in cash, comprised of $600 million at closing, subject to certain adjustments, and a contingent payment of up to $50 million six months after closing, upon the achievement of certain conditions related to the transition of LCD customer relationships.
    LCD is the industry standard for leveraged loan data, news, analysis, and indexes, providing coverage across the full lifecycle of loans. The leveraged loan market data provider will integrate with Morningstar's PitchBook Platform, which delivers data, research, and technology covering the breadth of the private and public capital markets. This unique dataset combined with PitchBook's already robust data, insights, and technology will create a centralized platform for participants in the leveraged finance market.
    < - >
    The acquisition of LCD will complement PitchBook's robust product and research capabilities and provide coverage of every metric of the leveraged loan market, including structure, pricing, yield, volume, along with secondary market performance and LBO/private equity activity. LCD is the only provider of real-time coverage of the U.S. and European leveraged loan and high-yield bond markets, from deal inception through the trading life of the debt. It also provides growing coverage of investment grade bond issuance, distressed debt, corporate bankruptcies, middle market transactions and CLO/fundraising. Over 20 years, LCD has provided data on over 30,000 issuers and 85,000 transactions.
    LCD has more than 500 leveraged loan indexes in the U.S. and Europe tracking performance, index characteristics, and risk measures comprised of over 1,800 loans. The S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index—the flagship benchmark for this asset class—and related indexes will become part of the expanding fixed-income capabilities from Morningstar Indexes, one of the fastest-growing global index providers.
    < - >
  • Innovation in Reverse - ARKK now down 41% YTD / more than 50% year over year
    “Also, curious as to why all the attentionon Wood/Arkk...meself,”
    Agree. The fund has ISTM received an inordinate amount of commentary in the media (and perhaps here). I guess the media likes bright and shiny objects - likes them even better after the gloss fades and they become objects of derision.
    @Baseball_Fan ‘s comments spark a few additional questions …
    (1) To what extent do CNBC & others allow ratings (ie advertising dollars) to affect what they cover and how they cover it? My uninformed guess is that ratings matter a great deal more than whether viewers’ pocketbooks are well served.
    (2) To what extent is “salesmanship” important to running a fund?
    (3) Is there something special about Wood’s demeanor / public persona that tends to attract some investors and/or foster a cult following?
    These type of stocks offer little appeal to me. But were I to find a niche in my portfolio for them, I’d rather research 4 or 5 individual stocks on my own and invest small sums directly in them, figuring 1 or 2 will go bust, but 2 or 3 might prosper. The advantage is you are less at the mercy of fund flows than owning them through a fund. Individual investors are also more nimble ISTM than a manager of billions - able to get in and out of positions more quickly.
    I think of the great investors / fund managers who inspired me over the years. Names like John Templeton, John Bogle or Michael Price. I see them shaking their heads at the Wood methodology and sales pitch.
  • Innovation in Reverse - ARKK now down 41% YTD / more than 50% year over year
    Hey Team,
    Hmm...interesting comments...couple thoughts...
    - watched Josh Brown's Compound Show Podcast yesterday, (btw, great podcast, he brings on some heavy hitters, relevant, fresh thinking, not same ole, same ole, keeps it real, some f bombs etc), had Adam Parker (Trivariate Research, formerly Chief US Equity Strategist and Global Dir of Quantitative Research, Morgan Stanley) on, convo dabbled on going out on risk curve...Mr Parker mentions (paraphrasing) he'd rather go long some Biotech small/mid stocks and short the profitless software stocks"...don't recall if he positoned the convo as an alternate to the Wood/Ark, my interpretation was if he was to go very aggressive he'd rather do that....you'll have to listen for yourself.
    Also, curious as to why all the attentionon Wood/Arkk...meself, if I was to "go for it", I'd rather invest with the Zevenberger growth funds...ZVNIX, ZVGNX (Genea fund)...they both smoke ARKK in the past 3 years...I think they seem more rational, don't come across as somewhat "kooky" (whatever that means these days)....been doing this agressive innovation investing thing for a while...why no one mention here?? Is it because polarizing figures like Wood get more eyeballs, invoke more emotion..?
    Best Regards and Good Health to ALL,
    Baseball Fan
  • Innovation in Reverse - ARKK now down 41% YTD / more than 50% year over year
    “It is up to the investor to have at least some degree of knowledge what they are investing in (and some degree of knowledge about investing in general) … .”
    The “Catch22” here - Most of us acquire that knowledge gradually over years of experience.
    Oh … of course there are books on the subject.
    One of the better arguments in favor of target date funds I’ve heard.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Regarding Puts & Calls, there is the Put/Call Ratio commented on by McClellan Financial:
    When the market changes its mood, indicators can sometimes change theirs to match. That is the message of this week’s chart.
    Traders and analysts have been watching the Put/Call Ratio ever since the late Martin Zweig first called attention to it decades ago. In his 1986 book Winning On Wall Street, Zweig described his research in the 1960s, digging through figures from the Securities and Exchange Commission going back as far as WWII, and noticing that “…when options investors got too optimistic - - buying lots of calls and shunning puts - - the stock market was generally heading for trouble. The reverse was also true.”
    The persistent problem over the years has been in determining what constitutes “high” and “low” readings for the Put/Call Ratio. This task is best done in retrospect, but we have to analyze and trade in realtime. And that can be hard.
    learning_center/weekly_chart/put_call_ratio_range_shift/
  • RCTIX - Manager Change
    @BaluBalu
    Fido hiring, a growth sign, eh? The times I've called over many years, if the CSR couldn't readily help; the proper person was sought. No problem with that. 'Course, the caller must have a properly framed question in the first place, to expect a proper answer.
    Fidelity hiring
    The intent of my post was to be helpful to this forum members and not to take shots at Fidelity or any other brokerage.
    Re customer competence, in the past 3 yrs, I have lost count the number of times I had to educate Fidelity CSRs about investment products available on their platform and the services they offered; while in the prior 10 yrs, I had consistently received outstanding service. Now, I hardly transact at Fidelity just to avoid having to deal with their CSR. I just leave most of my cash allocation at Fidelity. I expected Fidelity to assign less trained (and sometimes unprofessional?) reps to smaller accounts before elevating them to their highest level accounts but it is possible Fidelity lost too many employees at every level. l shall let other devoted customers train Fidelity CSRs before I check back with Fidelity.
  • RCTIX - Manager Change
    @BaluBalu
    Fido hiring, a growth sign, eh? The times I've called over many years, if the CSR couldn't readily help; the proper person was sought. No problem with that. 'Course, the caller must have a properly framed question in the first place, to expect a proper answer.
    Fidelity hiring
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    At one time the price of nat gas ran opposite that of crude oil on many days. That’s partially because the gas was a necessary (somewhat unwanted) byproduct of oil drilling / fracking and the market for gas was saturated - so they needed to sell it off cheaply. I don’t follow this closely, but suspect that’s no longer the case. A second reason gas may behave differently than crude is its use for air conditioning in warmer months.
    Yep - I’ve watched oil prices since the gas lines of the 70s (of which I partook). No way I know of to forecast the price. Even T. Boone Pickens got it wrong near the end. He’d steadfastly predicted a rebound for years before he died. His forecast came to fruition too late to do him any good.
    Reminds one of the old saw about “In the long run …” :)
    BTW - Today’s (supposedly informed) pundits on Bloomberg don’t seem to think the Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases will have much long range impact on oil prices. Remains to be seen of course.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @Crash "I'd been wanting to hop on the Natgas gravy train, these days". Really
    Good luck with the NG, Derf
    P.S. My chuckle
    for the day ! TUVM
    A few years ago I thought Natgas would eventually be seen as a darling and bought ALOT (for me) and kept buying on the dips to a point where it became a bottomless pit. The whole energy sector was deemed "uninvestable." I eventually started selling on bounces and ended up with a substantial though tolerable loss. It was without question the worst and most prolonged and painful bear markets I have ever personally experienced (and this is from someone whose played around with gold minors for decades)!
  • RCTIX - Manager Change
    Thanks for that information. Unfortunately, there are a couple of features at Fidelity that one can't be sure work without either trying them out or asking. One is buying a fund with a reduced min in an IRA, and then there's this one - automatic investing.
    Automatic investing is the more obscure one. You don't need to already have money in a fund to check out the IRA min. But you do need to have money in a fund to test whether an automatic investment is accepted. Of course one can call and ask.
    I have a fund there (in an IRA) that used to have a lower IRA min. If I sold it off now I could not get in again. And over the years, sometimes automatic investment worked, sometimes not. Things change and it can be hard to find out.