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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • 30-year Tips Article by William Bernstein
    I think it makes complete sense to discuss the probability of a 30-year TIPS being a good long-term investment and here's why or why not. Once anyone in finance uses absolute terms like "riskless" or "guaranteed," they've usually lost some of my trust. Fat tails and black swans in finance, unseen and unpredictable risks, are a real thing.
    I would say the risk of owning a 30-Year TIPS until maturity if it adheres to all of its debt covenants are extraordinarily low. I would say the political and macro risks that TIPS could violate or alter the debt's terms or covenants--change how their payouts work, how the CPI is calculated to reduce return, or default altogether because the U.S. becomes dysfunctional, or, worse than dysfunctional in the next thirty years--are not extraordinarily low. How high those political or macro risks are is difficult, perhaps impossible, to tell.
    Then there are the individual investor, personal, risks. What if you can't hold the 30-year TIPS to maturity for various reasons such as health or other unexpected events? What if your heirs need to sell it to raise cash before maturity and they have to sell it at a loss? I would say this is a medium to high risk for many individual investors with unpredictable finances and health situations.
  • 30-year Tips Article by William Bernstein
    Well said @LB. As an individual investor, cost of asset ownership is something I have absolute control. Thus, index funds and ETFs are preferred. So are those OEFs with lower expense ratio.
    With regard to TIPS, I would only consider the shortest duration individual TIPs of 5 year, and hold it till maturity. The only TIPS funds that I am interested are the new short duration TIPS fund from Vanguard, VTIP, and Blackrock’s STIP. I have no interest in longer duration TIPS such as 30 years, since many changes can take place. Same goes for TIPS funds and their year-to-year performance speaks for themselves
  • 30-year Tips Article by William Bernstein
    Although I agree with some of what Bernstein says here, I find it amusing for him to use the term "rational investor" in the same article he uses the term "riskless." Nothing in life is riskless. Investors call T-bill interest the "risk-free rate" because it is backed by the "full faith and credit" of the U.S. government. In the short-time frame that T-bills have to mature, that is a fairly safe bet, although the debt ceiling debate shenanigans currently reveal how even a T-bill is not truly riskless. But 30 years? 30 YEARS. I can barely predict what is going to happen tomorrow in the U.S. or in my own life let alone 30 years from now. To assume that a 30-year TIPS is riskless if you hold it to maturity is a mistake.
    Securities markets are not rational. People are not rational. Spock, or our inner Spock as Bernstein describes it, is a fictional television character I think certain men with a scientific bent aspire to as a role model. Yet the show was interesting enough to expose the flaws in Spock's beliefs--yes, belief, not absolute fact--in reason. And Spock, and the investment models and algorithms "rational" investors use are also designed by flawed humans to measure other flawed humans financial behavior.
    There's a reason physics, chemistry and biology are called the "hard sciences" while economics and psychology are called soft sciences, and even the former despite the scientists in those fields attempts at objective measurability are subject to human biases. I'm not sure finance even qualifies as a soft science as a subset of economics. It's very difficult to determine what is luck and what is skill in this field.
    Yet it is very important from a marketing perspective to present certain professional investors as rational. That is the emotional subtext behind this veneer of rationality in the investment management business--greed for investor assets. The usual line of advertising goes: These extremely educated investors approach finance as a science and have developed a never-fail rational and repeatable scientific system for beating the market. See how well that worked with the Long-Term Capital hedge fund.
    Alternatively, the line of advertising logic goes for indexing "scientists": Our data of the last 100 years indicates in the long-term the market rises. In every ten year period if you just bought and held, you would have had strong positive performance, and beaten the active managers. And because this was true in the last 100 years we are now going to extrapolate into eternity that owning an index of U.S. stocks is a good idea because human history and global history always repeat themselves.
    The irony to me is the most predictable thing in finance may be the fees professional investors charge for us to believe in them. I would add this is where Bernstein, Bogle, and indexers are, for the most part, rationally right. Bogle aways said it wasn't the efficient market hypothesis he subscribed to. It was the costs matter hypothesis.
  • M-Mkt Fund Vulnerabilities - YELLEN, 3/30/23
    "The structural vulnerabilities at the heart of money market and open-end funds aren’t new. In the banking sector, capital and liquidity requirements and federal deposit insurance reduce the likelihood of runs taking place. In case runs occur, access to the discount window helps provide buffers for banks. Yet the financial stability risks posed by money market and open-end funds have not been sufficiently addressed.
    Over the past two years, the SEC has proposed rules to mitigate the vulnerabilities plaguing these funds.13 The SEC’s proposals would reduce the first-mover advantage, reducing run incentives during times of stress. They would also require new liquidity management tools, while mandating more comprehensive and timely information on these funds for the SEC and investors."
    https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1376
  • VWINX stumbling?
    Thanks @larryB / Last year’s unusually big hit was understandable as bonds slid along with stocks. But it can’t seem to get out of its own way this year. The ”secret sauce” for so many years no longer working it seems. I wonder if money has been leaving?
  • VWINX stumbling?
    @Hank. I too use this one as a gage. It’s basically 38% VYM and 62% BND. So last years decline mirrored the sum of its parts. But it’s set and forget for its fans. No miracles tho..
  • VWINX stumbling?
    I watch this one as one gage of how conservative allocation funds are faring. For years it’s been regarded (ISTM) as the Cadillac of that group.
    Surprised to see it down 0.30% YTD even after today’s +.45% gain. And last year it lost more than 9%. Never owned it. Just trying to figure out what’s causing its problem - likely some staple in its mix that isn’t performing as expected.
  • Neighbor chat. House sale, capital gains on sale. Improvements adjusted for today's cost ???
    Be careful what you ask about. You might get more than you bargained for :-)
    There were a couple of exceptions to the "usual" step up rule in the past, there's one current exception (in timing), and potentially one in the future. Perhaps others that I'm not aware of.
    Step-up in basis has been eliminated twice during the past 50 years, and each time, the change was short-lived.
    Step-up in basis was first eliminated by the Tax Reform Act of 1976 and replaced with a carryover basis regime. The carryover basis rules were heavily criticized and repealed a few years later, before they had taken effect.
    The Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 repealed the estate tax and adopted a carryover basis regime [no step up] for calendar year 2010 only ...
    Congress eventually threw everyone a curveball. In mid-December [2010], Congress retroactively restored the estate tax and step-up in basis for 2010 decedents. However, for decedents who died in 2010, estate executors could opt out of the estate tax and into a carryover basis tax regime.
    https://www.aperiogroup.com/blogs/repeal-of-basis-step-up-third-times-the-charm
    The current estate tax law generally provides for a step up (or down) to current value as of date of death. However, for estates subject to the estate tax, an executor can elect to do an assessment of all assets in the estate (it's all or nothing) on the alternate valuation date six months after the date of death, assuming that would result in lower federal estate taxes.
    The exception to this exception is if an asset is transferred (via sale, distribution, or other method) prior to the end of the six month period, the individual asset is valued as of the date of transfer.
    Recent federal and state proposals are floating around to tax billionaires on unrealized capital gains annually based on mark-to-market valuations.
    https://itep.org/president-bidens-proposed-billionaires-minimum-income-tax-would-ensure-the-wealthiest-pay-a-reasonable-amount-of-income-tax/
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/01/17/wealth-taxes-state-level/
    Under these proposals there would be no need for a step up because assets would already be valued at their last annual market price. Further, often these proposals are limited to easily priced securities. They might treat real estate and securities differently.
  • Neighbor chat. House sale, capital gains on sale. Improvements adjusted for today's cost ???
    I would assume if they are audited the IRS will want receipts, ie that $5000 check for the fence!
    Tell them to be glad their house value went up . We lost money on the sale of our house in CT over 30 years
  • Neighbor chat. House sale, capital gains on sale. Improvements adjusted for today's cost ???
    House sale and capital improvements to calculate capital gains on sale question.
    So, house purchased for 'x' $ 20 years ago.
    There is a capital gain on the sale of the property, which will be taxable.
    Improvements to the property may be used to change the 'cost basis' for calculating full capital gains tax.
    My question (below) is that it was stated that the owners made numerous improvements to the property over the years; which did provide for a higher sales price.
    One example is, a very nice fence that was placed around the property that cost $5,000 15 years ago, but would cost $15,000 to build today.
    The seller, of course, wants to keep the capital gains tax on the sale as low as possible.
    It is my understanding that they may use the original $5,000 to change the 'cost basis'; whereas it is suggested they may use the $15,000 cost (when the house was sold), if the fence was installed today, to calculate the 'cost basis'.
    In effect, they are suggesting using an 'inflation adjusted' value.
    Is this allowed in the IRS tax code for calculating a property sale 'cost basis' to establish the capital gains amount???
    Thank you for your time in sorting this conflict of thought about this process.
    Catch
  • Crisis of HTM - Banks, Brokerages, Insurance, Pension Funds
    Thank you @yogibearbull for starting this thread. I have a few questions on this. What is the maturity profile of CRE debt over the next few years? Will the rates be going up significantly or are the loans floating rate in the first place?
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    a little SCHW and BAC
    Schwab insiders broke open their personal piggybanks and bought a boatload. Both of your purchases will be bargains when you look back a few years from now. It's like when Jamie Dimon buys JPM stock. It's the ultimate insider play.
  • Five things we learned from the Senate hearing on the Silicon Valley Bank collapse
    Following are heavily edited excerpts from a current NPR report.
    Days after one of the largest bank failures in U.S. history, the fallout continues. Some of the country's top banking and financial regulators appeared before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday to testify about what led to the downfall of Silicon Valley Bank. Policymakers will be debating whether new laws, rules or attitudes are needed to keep other banks from going under.

    Five takeaways from Tuesday's hearing:
    • Silicon Valley Bank's management messed up
    • Regulators issued warnings, but the problems were not fixed
    • Modern bank runs can happen really fast
    • Other banks will pay for the failure, but maybe not all banks
    • Bank executives could pay

    • Silicon Valley Bank's management messed up-
    Regulators had some tough words about SVB's management at the hearing. Silicon Valley Bank more than tripled in size in the last three years, but its financial controls didn't keep pace.
    The government bonds it was buying with depositors' money tumbled in value as interest rates rose, but the bank seemed unconcerned by that. "The [bank's] risk model was not at all aligned with reality," said Michael Barr, the Federal Reserve's vice chair for supervision. "This is a textbook case of bank mismanagement."
    • Regulators issued warnings, but the problems were not fixed-
    How much blame should be laid at regulators feet? That was a question that cropped up repeatedly during the hearing.
    Barr stressed that federal regulators had repeatedly warned the bank's managers about the risks it was facing, at least as far back as October 2021. The bank was served with formal notices documenting "matters requiring attention" and "matters requiring immediate attention." But the risks remained and the Fed stopped short of ordering changes, which frustrated some of the senators in the Senate Banking Committee from both sides of the aisle.
    The problems developed during a time when the Fed was generally pursuing a light touch in bank regulation. In 2021, for example, the Fed issued a rule — at the urging of bank lobbyists — noting that guidance from bank supervisors does not carry the force of law. That led some senators to call out colleagues who pushed for lighter rules, only to turn around and blame a lack of regulatory muscle for the bank's failure.
    • Modern bank runs can happen really fast-
    In their testimony, regulators also stressed the speed at which the banks collapsed. When big depositors got wind of the problems at Silicon Valley Bank, they raced to pull their money out, withdrawing $42 billion in a single day. The bank scrambled to borrow more money overnight, but it couldn't keep up. By the following morning, depositors had signaled plans to withdraw another $100 billion — more than the bank could get its hands on.
    • Other banks will pay for the failure, but maybe not all banks-
    Also under scrutiny throughout the testimony, was the federal regulators' decision to backstop all deposits at SVB as well as Signature Bank. Silicon Valley bank was taken over by the FDIC on March 10, but fears of a more widespread bank run led regulators to announce days later they would guarantee all the deposits at both SVB and Signature Bank, not just the $250,000 per account that's typically insured.
    By law, that money will come from a special assessment on other banks — and that's left many senators unhappy. The FDIC has some discretion in how those insurance costs are divided up among different categories of banks. A recommended formula will be announced in early May.
    • Bank executives could pay-
    The role of SVB's top executives came under scrutiny as well during the hearing. Lawmakers expressed frustration at reports that executives at Silicon Valley Bank sold stock and received bonuses shortly before the bank's collapse.
    Although the government doesn't have explicit authority to claw back compensation, it does have the power to levy fines, order restitution and prohibit those executives from working at other banks, if wrongdoing is found. Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md, said "Almost every American would agree it's simply wrong for the CEO and top executives to profit from their own mismanagement and then leave FDIC holding the bag,"
  • RMDs and Credit Unions
    At least at Fidelity, QCD is not as seamless as a DAF. There is no online method to transfer the funds.
    I have a couple of years to figure it out. Anybody else actually completed the process?
  • Does anyone have a fav fund or two LOOKING FORWARD
    Thanks for those ideas @rforno. CGGO looks promising. I have not replaced the global growth funds that swooned in 2022, i.e., Kristian Heugh and MS funds. Do you know if the managers of CGGO run an equivalent MF strategy?
    I think their equity ETFs follow their multi-manager 'sleeve'-oriented house approach to investing. It's not flashy and rarely knocks it out of the park, but I've been fairly pleased w/how the AF team runs their funds, several of which I own in very large amounts. I've not looked closely but all 4 ETF managers have been with Capital for over 20 years so presumably they've been managing/co-managing other funds.
  • Where are you placing your RMD withdrawals ?
    Thanks for all the replies. As of today I'm thinking of taking 1/2 of required RMD & placing after taxes the remaining amount into another T- note of two years.
  • CDs versus government bonds
    a bet on a long-term CD at a high interest rate has it's own risks for the issuing credit union or bank, and that risk is sort of the opposite from what took down Silicon Valley Bank recently. If the Fed's interest rates come down in a year or two that issuer will be stuck paying out at a high rate but itself having to invest for income at a lower rate.
    I don't see the situations as symmetric. Banks borrow short and invest long. The risk they voluntarily assume is being locked into more depreciating long term investments (as rates rise) than they have in short term deposits (solvency issue) and experiencing a sizeable net outflow of short term deposits (liquidity issue), notably a bank run.
    When Jan buys a CD, the bank invests that money long term. That long term investment will pay enough to service Jan's CD. When Jan's CD matures in five years, the bank will have to come up with the principal. Assuming that interest rates drop in the future, the bank's investment will have appreciated. So the bank will have no problem repaying Jan.
    To address larryB's moral hazard comment - it's generally not a long term deposit that creates a problem, since the bank has locked in its own return. There's no mismatch.
    Rather, a mismatch comes about when old short term deposit money (getting low interest) leaves and is replaced with new short term deposit money earning higher yields, while the bank is stuck in ongoing investments with lower yield.
    FWIW, the mutual savings bank and S&L crisis leading to institutions offering unsustainable deposit rates (including CD rates) was triggered by a unique set of conditions including:
    - artificially low deposit rates (until CDs were created in 1978 and the 1982 Garn-St Germain Act created MM deposit accounts);
    - disintermediation (people pulling money out of bank accounts to invest directly in Treasuries and newfangled MMFs);
    - restrictions on these institutions limiting their investments largely to lower yielding fixed rate mortgages; and
    - massive deregulation (allowing the institutions to act recklessly while being insured).
    So while there's a superficial resemblance to the situation OJ described - banks paying higher interest rates on new deposits than they're earning on their portfolio - the S&L situation was different, with rising rather than falling rates underlying the mess.
    FDIC history, The Savings and Loan Crisis and Its Relationship to Banking
    FDIC history, The Mutual Savings Bank Crisis
    Federal Reserve history, Garn-St Germain Depository Institutions Act of 1982
  • T. Rowe Price New Horizons and Emerging Markets Stock Funds reopening to new investors
    Fidelity's $75.00 transaction fee for Vanguard and Dodge & Cox funds has been in place for years.
    Their transaction fee for most other fund families is $49.95.
  • Do others have a favorite fund, or two?
    The following two funds have performed well for me and have been worry-free.
    Collectively they comprised 36% of my total portfolio at the beginning of the year.
    Interm. Core-Plus Bond: DOXIX
    Foreign Large Blend: MIEIX (invested in CIT "clone")
    Edit/Add:
    I've owned the following fund for ~5.5 years in my HSA and am pleased with its overall performance
    but it's only a small slice of my portfolio.
    Large Blend: PRILX
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Hey @PRESSmUP... Oh I think I remember you mentioning that fund a couple of years ago as having great recovery from the financial crisis... Am I correct in that. It seems to me we are due for a rebound soon in financials as fear has been driving the narrative and just about everything has gotten hit in financials.