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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Changes (Finally) Coming to Taxable SS Calc?
    That page is not substantially different from the 2020 report where the Section H options were likewise numbered H2-H7, and generally the only difference was that the years for implementation were one year sooner. See p. 31 (pdf p. 32):
    https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/solvency/provisions_tr2020/summary.pdf
    As I wrote above, nothing new to see here, move along. Just the same "news" pieces trotted out as though they were reporting on new proposals.
    I suspect that if you go back year by year, you'll see very little different in the proposals aside from the dates. Here's where you can find earlier years:
    https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/solvency/provisions/
  • Multi-Asset Income Funds: Is the Extra Income Worth the Extra Risk?
    msf said:
    "A bet on higher yield may pay off nine years or out of ten, or even better, but that just means that when 00 comes up, the impact is likely to be more severe. IOFIX, SEMMX and their brethren were never "cash subs", regardless of how sedate they looked before 2020."
    IOFIX and SEMMX were touted as "cash subs" by some participants on another investing board.
    This was before IOFIX returned -36.18% and SEMMX returned -20.85% in 2020 Q1 ¹.
    ¹ returns reported by Morningstar
  • Changes (Finally) Coming to Taxable SS Calc?
    Nice links on that obscure history, @msf. I for those into minutiae and NYC public works history, no source can outdo Robert Caro’s The Power Broker. I hope he finishes his volume 5 on LBJ and the Vietnam years before age catches up with him (not to say that others of us are not so similarly affected).
  • Multi-Asset Income Funds: Is the Extra Income Worth the Extra Risk?
    The point in the excerpt below cannot be emphasized strongly enough. There is a reason that some bonds or funds pay more. It is called risk premium. That is not a free lunch. A bet on higher yield may pay off nine years or out of ten, or even better, but that just means that when 00 comes up, the impact is likely to be more severe. IOFIX, SEMMX and their brethren were never "cash subs", regardless of how sedate they looked before 2020.
    Return-Based Risk Measurements Miss the Mark
    The fundamental risks that we see in multi-asset income funds, moreover, can hide in plain view for extended periods. That is, when looking at metrics based on trailing returns, funds can look sedate until a crisis. On this front, multi-asset income funds faced a comeuppance in early 2020 during the pandemic panic from Feb. 19 through March 3.
    The classical volatility measure is historical standard deviation, which didn’t signal an impending problem heading into the 2020 crisis. From 2012 up through early 2020, it would have been fair to call multi-asset income funds sedate based on it. Over this nine-year period, they had an average three-year standard deviation of 6.6%, roughly two thirds that of the S&P 500 index’s 10.5% mark. At the end of 2019, multi-asset income funds’ average three-year standard deviation was just below that level, at 6.4%.
  • Changes (Finally) Coming to Taxable SS Calc?
    Sure. There's the federal excise tax of 3% on interstate calls originally imposed to support the Spanish American War and removed for good in 2006.
    http://www.taxhistory.org/thp/readings.nsf/ArtWeb/557559440437EDBC8525718B005ACCCB?OpenDocument
    More recently, in 2018 New Jersey eliminated its estate tax. For decades it had been that rare state with both an estate tax (on the property [estate] of the deceased) and an inheritance tax (on the amount of assets passed to the inheritors, taxed individually and based on who each inheritor was). It now has only an inheritance tax.
    https://www.state.nj.us/treasury/taxation/inheritance-estate/inheritance.shtml
    A more obscure one that I'm rather fond of is a use tax (road toll) imposed on vehicles using the Southern State Parkway on Long Island. Originally a dime, it had been imposed to fund road improvements. It was raised to a quarter two decades later, spurring such outrage that three years after the hike, and one year after the state took over the parkway maintenance, it was removed and the toll booths torn down.
    https://www.liweddings.com/wedding-forum/for-newlyweds-only/long-island-history-did-you-know-there-were-toll-boths-on-the-southern-state-107508-1.html
    http://www.nycroads.com/roads/southern/
  • EV’s & Where to Invest for the next 10 years
    If you believe that fossil fuel vehicles are on the way out and EVs are here to stay… what opportunities are out there as a solid risk/reward investment for the next 10 years? Everyone talks about lithium but could there be more important materials to focus on. This graphic shows the current elements in an EV: https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/evs-vs-gas-vehicles-what-are-cars-made-out-of/
    Listen to educated people like Elon Musk and rare earth expert James Litinsky and you may start researching NICKEL and Graphene etc. The capital required to build out a mining operation for these materials is intensive. 10 years away to build out.
    Nickel is on fire due to Russia and Ukraine conflict: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/08/nickel-price-surge-could-threaten-automakers-ev-plans.html
    Glencorp GLNCY and VALE are dominant and according to Litinsky they will free cash flow themselves in 3 years. Perhaps they will be bought by an EV OEM. Musk has recently requested more mining investment.
    Of course, the risk is the future battery chemistry. Will it always be lithium and nickel etc? Seems like a compelling case -these two stocks. Something to consider.
    FWIW: GLNCY is up 45 percent in the last 52 weeks.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-mining-stocks-growth-51631918714
  • Crypto firms say thousands of digital currencies will collapse, compare market to early dotcom days
    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/03/crypto-firms-say-thousands-of-digital-currencies-will-collapse.html
    Crypto firms say thousands of digital currencies will collapse, compare market to early dotcom days
    ***There are more than 19,000 cryptocurrencies in existence and dozens of blockchain platforms that exist.
    Several cryptocurrency industry players told CNBC that thousands of digital tokens are likely to collapse while the number of blockchains in existence will also fall over the coming years.
    Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of cross-border blockchain payments company Ripple, said there is likely to be “scores” of cryptocurrencies that remain in the future.***
    we have stop investing CRYPT-BASE currencies past 3months. was a smart move IMHO. Many friends lots moderate amount of monies
  • Is Jamie Dimon Losing It?
    Jamie always sounds to me like he’s got half a toot on. Not that I’d hold it against him. Wondering if comment was made before or after lunch? In the town I grew up in the local bankers were the worst of the lot. Rarely blew a sober breath after lunch. Re Diamon … Sometime ago he criticized crypto as “worthless.” Although it wasn’t worthless, many crypto currencies took a big hit only months later. If you listened to him, you probably came out better off.
    As for that “hurricane” … A growing land war in Europe and a growing U.S. role providing weaponry; a tightening Federal Reserve; A near total Covid lockdown in China (easing at present); Supply chain shortages; Near dysfunctional politics; Growing firearm related violence here at home. 21 killed in Texas a week ago and 4 more killed overnight in Oklahoma. All told, it’s enough to make you not want to get out of bed in the morning - or buy stocks.
    They all have their story to tell. And it’s hard to know to what extent they’re “talking their book” and trying to move their stock or a segment of the market this way or that. But I like to attribute to them the best of motives and like to think they’re looking out for the best interests of we small individual investors.
    Others I’ve followed somewhat this year:
    - George Soros thinks WW III has already begun - and I’d give about 1 in 3 odds that he’s correct, Could be catastrophic for equities.
    - Ray Dalio thinks cash is trash. He’d prefer most anything to cash and has liked gold for a long time. He also thinks the tremendous wealth disparity in this country spells civil strife in coming years. Again, not good for equities.
    - Rick Rieder, who’s involved in multi-asset strategies at Blackrock, loves cash presently. Interviewed on Bloomberg in the past month he commented, “We’re holding on to cash with both hands!”
    - Howard Marks was on Bloomberg TV yesterday remarking on the good values that have now developed in the markets - particularly high yield bonds. His approach is to grab off whatever value he can see right away rather than waiting for the price to fall further. Overall, he views the risk markets as offering much better value than 6 months ago. And he’s picking up bargains.
    - Larry Fink of Blackrock is being interviewed on Bloomberg as I write. He scoffed at Diamond’s “hurricane” analogy saying he thinks it was intended to represent just one possible outcome. Fink doesn’t think the Fed can solve the inflation problem with the tools they have. Will remain high for 2-3 years, but moderate further out. Fink commented that there hasn’t been much change in how individuals are positioned in his funds. Most are staying the course.
    - I subscribe to James Stack’s InvestTech newsletter. Proprietary material. But I suspect it’s widely known that he’s been recommending for some time that individuals maintain a 50-60% long exposure to equities and hold the rest in cash + an inverse S&P fund. He’s expecting trouble ahead - not unlike Diamond’s “hurricane.” I march to my own drummer - but take Stack’s views into consideration.
    - I subscribe to Bill Fleckenstein’s “Daily Rap”. When he’s not wasting time criticizing the alleged ill effects of Covid vaccines, Bill makes a compellingly bearish case for equities. (But it may take months or years to play out). Also likes gold and the metals. Been wrong a long time. But the metals are spiking big time today. Miners up 4 - 5% on the day.
    Of all the commentators mentioned above, Howard Marks makes the most sense to me. Generally does. And I’ve fallen asleep more than once listing to the audio version of one of his books.
  • Getting Real by Mark Freeland
    I appreciate the info about real estate funds, and the tables, but a quick search at Vanguard, Schwab and Fido shows that none of the three GO funds Mr Freeland has in the table with the best Sharpe Ratios over five years ( TIPRX VCMIX GIREX) are available to individual investors.
    A broader search since inception shows the same 14 great owl funds, but again the only ones with Sharpe ratios over 1.02 and std dev under 10 and Max DD under 8% are unavailable to individual investors, and are all interval funds.
    An interval fund is not traded daily, and the company is not obligated to allow redemptions at any time other than the end of the quarter and then for only 5% of total assets. If everyone wants out, too bad, even if you need the money to pay for junior's college.
    While the Apollo fund apparently is available directly thru Apollo, with a low minimum, there is a sales charge.
    MFO Premium search has a function for interval funds, but only to search only for them, not to exclude them.
    I am glad Mr Freeland put in the hard work gathering the information, but it is less useful to us individual investors than I initially thought, as the best funds are really unavailable.
  • TSP is going to offer mutual funds.
    BlackRock/BLK has been TSP fund manager for years (except for SV G Fund that is directly under the Treasury Secretary). State Street/STT was recently added as 2nd manager for small portions.
    FWIW, the US Government also relied on Blackrock's risk asset management tools during the financial crisis.
  • M* Interactive Charting AWOL?
    Looking forward to hearing if this inability to compare ETFs to Mutual Funds is permanent. I suspect it is, since they now require a separate page for the chart itself. Just another nail in the coffin of M* for individual investors. Dumbing down the articles, eliminating insightful mutual funds reports in favor of computer generated junk.. the list of hits to M8 as a useful company goes on and on.
    No reason to tell long time ( 30 years) customers ahead of time, now is there, M*?
    Yahoo finance still charts some mutual funds with ETFs, but several funds have no chart available.
    MFO charts show both ETFs and mutual funds, so it can't be a data stream issue, can it?
  • TSP is going to offer mutual funds.
    Is that some drool I see on the lips of fund management country wide? (If you don't follow the TSP doings over time, you have missed the various political maneuvers used over the years in an attempt to move the TSP into the skim paradises (female owned small investment business promotion, letting more firms share the wealth and management, etc.) The flavor of the argument depends on who wants the expansion and what audience is being targeted. In the past, this has not been much of a threat.
    My paranoid, suspicious mind is musing how, after this is sealed in superglue to the TSP program, the more egregious the costs, the better the argument for restructuring the fund more like retirement funds run elsewhere. (You know any old stable value fund is the same as the G-fund, all have index funds with low fees, etc.) Why not Voya; they throw the best parties? (adlib from Delaware move of their retirement funds from Fidelity to Voya.
    And, yes, I do know that all my comments are just idle wondering and wandering.
  • TSP is going to offer mutual funds.
    As mentioned earlier, the TSP G Fund is a unique stable-value fund (SV) with its principal & accumulated interest guaranteed by Uncle Sam (most SVs are guaranteed by insurance companies; some by none, so check about yours). During the debt-ceiling dramas (also unique to the US), the Treasury taps G Fund temporarily but there is no risk of loss to its holders.
    The SV rates keep up with the current intermediate-term rates. The SVs are available only within workplace retirement plans.
    I have mentioned a rule of thumb elsewhere - prefer SV if its guaranteed interest well exceeds the 30-day SEC yield of bond fund under consideration. This has been so in recent years but may change as rate move up.
  • Dividend Paying Funds

    One of the things I like about SCHD--for example--is that its top ten sectors do not show a reliance on consumer durables, utilities, infrastructure, or REITS for its payout. I like to buy those sectors separately.
    That's precisely why SCHD is my largest ETF/OEF holding. I have other funds focused on those items, mostly CEFs but also some individual stocks.
    The other point which hasn't been mentioned...in addition to the return remarkably close to that of the S&P 500, it also has 11.98% annual dividend growth over the last 5 years.
    Sign me up for that.
  • Can Home Prices and Interest Rates Soar at the Same Time? ---- Maybe Not......
    This trend of high mortgage rates and high home prices cannot persist forever. Home sale and mortgage application have been declining for several months. Because there is limited inventory of houses for sale, the pricing still climbs in certain part of the country. Boise and Phoenix are some of the hot spots.
    The demand for larger houses was driven from the pandemic. Will remote working from home become the new working model for all profession? Majority of my friends have had several weeks of remote working, all have since return to work full time and vaccination was the key.
    My guess is that there will be fewer and fewer buyers in next several years. Returning to the pre-pandemic situation is anyone guess.
  • Can Home Prices and Interest Rates Soar at the Same Time? ---- Maybe Not......
    Here in Northern California several counties (Marin and Sonoma, to name two) have recently enacted moratoriums on short-term vacation rentals because the prevailing political wisdom is that short term rentals remove potential rental properties from the full-time rental market, thus contributing to the well-documented housing shortage.
    Our Russian River home is located in Sonoma County, and for well over twenty years the house next to ours has been occupied by full-time renters. If it were removed from the full-time market that would indeed be one less house available for such renters.
    It's not unusual for such renters to be unable to afford the entry barrier to purchase a house of their own, and I know that to be a fact with respect to the house next door. The people who live there are fully employed, and certainly contribute to the local economy.
    I realize that governmental restrictions on the rental use of one's property can reasonably be regarded as an unjustifiable intrusion on an owner's property rights. But I also recognize the real need for affordable rental housing for those people who support the local economy. Frankly, with respect to my own opinion, I'm unable to resolve this contradiction.
  • Vanguard mutual fund screen?
    Fido Screener is quite good. It is the only screener I know that combines mutual funds and ETFs
    Ironically enough, if one can find Vanguard's screener, the first criterion shown (as a radio button) is Product Type:
    • Mutual funds
    • Exchange-traded funds (ETFs)
    • Both
    But it's missing a lot of other criteria, like M* ratings.
    That works. Excluding no load funds hasn't worked since they launched, how many years ago? Same for minimum investment. They still give you the Admiral funds even if you specify a lower limit. And then, some part of the beginning of every month they're not going to give you other fund families. I'm probably forgetting something.
    They did send me a survey recently. And no. I wouldn't recommend Vanguard to anyone.
  • GQHPX
    Rajiv Jain is a very experienced fund manager who has delivered excellent long-term performance using a "quality growth" approach. His departure from GQG Partners would be a huge setback for the firm and represents substantial key-man risk. Another potential concern is that GQG Partners amassed over $91B AUM (as of 12/31/2021) in less than 6 years.
    Thanks. I own both GQEIX and GQHIX and so the info you included is of interest to me. Under Parent tab, M* shows total net assets at $11B but it is possible M* did not include assets under separately managed accounts and other vehicles. It would be great if you are able to share a link or a source of the $91B you mentioned. Thanks.
  • Vanguard mutual fund screen?
    Not sure what you are seeking. Vanguard has a very basic comparison tool for their funds and other families. It provides 1, 3, 5, and 10 years performance, top 10 holdings, sector invested, historical volatility, expense ratio and minimum $ required.
    Fidelity does not have a comprehensive too either. Perhaps you will have better luck with Schwab.
    For most of my research, I start with MFO Premium which requires work on the selection parameters. Once I narrow down the candidates, it provides a rich set of information that you can sort through patiently.
  • Dividend Paying Funds
    OK - It has averaged nearly 14% a year for 3 years. I think you should buy it @larryB.