Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • "Charles M. ‘Chuck’ Royce has a prior ten years of investment experience"
    Royce has had a handful of good funds, but more than a handful of moves demonstrating their inability to act as true fiduciaries. I've documented some of them here from time to time. The first I noticed was several years ago when in their annual report they selectively decided to drop (vs include) performance figures and upside/downside (etc.) capture metrics for some funds.
    But more to your point: how will Royce ever manage -- isn't Chuck a manager on, like, oh, 38 of their funds or something?
  • TRP ridiculousness
    I've transferred numerous funds from E-Trade, Ally, and JP Morgan Direct Invest to Fidelity via ACAT and haven't provided a screenshot of an account statement in the last 5 years. Vanguard still requires account statements from the other brokerage, which is 1 reason I no longer transfer mutual funds to them ! If I have to, I transfer cash to Vanguard and buy the fund there.
  • "Charles M. ‘Chuck’ Royce has a prior ten years of investment experience"
    Uh-huh. That's a lead (or lede) sentence in a CityWire story announcing Chuck Royce's decision, at 82, to hand over management responsibilities for Royce Premier.
    He'll still be a portfolio manager, of course, he will just "rotate" so that he's no longer a "lead" portfolio manager. Following the move, he'll remain a manager of some sort on eight funds.
    I'm struck by the delicacy of the Royce press release wording and by the ability of the CityWire writer to declare that Mr. Royce has ten years of experience: he's been with this fund since '92 (30 years), founded the firm in '72 (50 years) and earned his MBA in '63 (nearly - checking fingers and toes here - 60 years).
    For what interest it holds.
  • Thoughts On The Market
    @Lewis
    I know you're using the toll road fees as an analogy but this analogy is applicable to passively managed like funds only, not actively managed funds.
    The other metric of a 1.50% ER fund being 50 times better than a 0.03% ER fund isn't applicable either imo.
    What matters I believe is after fee performance (after accounting for risk, category etc..)
    If one has access to a crystal ball that can see 10 years and the following were the choices what would most people pick?
    Fund A 10Y performance 5%, fees 0.03%
    Fund B 10Y performance 10%, fees 1.50%
    For a starting balance of $10K, after 10Y Fund A balance will be $16,242 and Fund B balance will be $22,609
    Note that I'm not arguing for or against passive investing, just the math of expenses and compounding
    As a personal aside, for more than 15 years I had hard cutoffs for ER, I would look at any fund that exceeded my thresholds but I now believe that is an error and that some fund managers do indeed earn and overcome expense drag.
  • True Selling Days
    @larryB, roger re lack of sense and perspective
    @rono, this might help; doubt it, but might:
    https://www.bu.edu/eci/files/2019/10/Principles_2e_Ch31.pdf

    Most economists use the rule of thumb that as long as the rate of increase in government’s debt is not significantly greater than that of GDP for several years in a row it does not represent a severe problem for the economy.

    etc.
  • True Selling Days
    Thinking gets a bit muddled with advancing years. Caution looms. 2007-2009 was a “hoot” for many of us. Those under 60 or 65 at the time made out very well in the end, buying in at lower prices or (in my own case) converting a substantial sum to a Roth. Alas, “Father Time …. You can’t buy down like you did 10-15 years ago. Losses sting more.
    Good thread. Thanks for all who contribute.
    The markets? Hell … I don’t know. My guess is there are both bargains and trap-doors out there. Spread it around. Don’t buy what’s been hot. Consider foreign markets. Maintain a buffer in cash or short duration fixed income. Personally, I’m wary enough to maintain a small counter-position in TAIL - lending some credence to @rono’s concerns.
  • Vanguard today announced the addition of Ariel Investments, LLC, to its management roster
    Historically, VG has quietly changed external advisors or their allocations, but it famously did high profile firing of GMO and AllianceBernstein. I don't think VG needs so many external advisors (now 6 for Explorer) to keep them on their toes and 2-3 should be enough for that.
    VG also did high profile firing of indexer MSCI in favor of unknown CRSP almost 10+ years ago.
  • RLSFX
    @hank - how's your stake in PRPFX holding up?
    PRPFX? Not bad. Off 3.7% YTD. Up an average of 8.5% over 5 years. It’s quite diversified, but gold, silver & miners have the greatest impact because they’re so volatile. Exposure to the Swiss Franc has hurt a bit. Helped by natural resources. Hurt by stocks & bonds. After transferring it to Fido I shaved off 30+% to allocate the $$ elsewhere. Probably worked for the better. It’s a hard fit for a portfolio. I keep it as 1 of 4 alternative funds. All total they comprise 30%.
    I don’t mind volatility in some assets if I understand the rationale. With PSMM it’s the downside emanating, I think, from fixed income that has me concerned. Bonds may best be described today as “Return free risk.”
    Here’s PRPFX’s chart from Lipper.
    image
  • I was wondering if other MFO's users were have problems with different devices that use Apple ?
    Thanks @MrRuffles. You aren’t confused. I was. I’ve lost track of the years. Checking the App store, the DejaOffice program was purchased in July 2011. It updates frequently of course. So have used it more like 11 or 12 years.
    It’s hard to imagine life before ipads and iphones. I remember buying something produced by Dell maybe 20 years ago that fit in a shirt pocket and stored contact information. No phone function. Used to actually “wow” some people when I’d whip it out to look up a phone number, flight information or other stuff.
    And my 5th generation ipad is running IOS 15.2.1 With automatic updates which load overnight I pay no attention. Probably should. No. Not planning to reach out to anyone at this time. I ran a test this morning and was able to save the files to DropBox and than retrieve them on a different device. And, as I suspect you know, all the contents of ipads (including files) can be backed up to Apple’s cloud. But if necessary, I will reach out.
    I see 2 possibilities here (1) It’s a software glitch that will clear up in time or (2) Apple notified developers of the change months back - because I first noticed the “Drop Box” backup option in the Deja App only a month or two ago. They may have added it in anticipation of the change, There’s also the possibility that using an email other than icloud would work. But that’s a last resort because most of them scan your email. I’d rather trust Apple with my trove of data.
    PS - There appears to be a “contact us” option inside the Deja app. If I run into any issues I’ll contact them. This has been an extremely reliable app.
  • RLSFX
    I still own some gold and silver, IAU and SLV, but I believe they are both slightly negative YTD. I swore off miners years ago.
    The gold and precious metals miners have stunk for a long time. I know because I have one toe in them. But RIO is industrial metals mostly. Exposure to the rare earth metals used in electric car batteries, etc. Not recommending it. Just making the distinction. I’ve been lucky with the few individual stocks I’ve waded into the past 8-10 months. But expect I’ll get my head handed to me on a platter one of these days. There’s a reason mutual funds came to exist
  • True Selling Days
    Hi folks,
    Gary Smith (not the Fox guy) that used to post on the earlier board and who wrote, 'How I Trade for a Living', described True Selling Days as when all the major indices are down more than 1%. We had one on Jan 14 and another one on the 2nd. These were metrics that he used to start selling. I noted the first, but only started buying some Inflation Protected bonds. Ever since I have been further easing back on equity exposure.
    I am not suggesting that anyone do as I am doing, we're in difference spaces with different goals and objectives. That said, I don't like anything about this market at this time.
    and so it goes,
    peace,
    rono
    Hi Ron. Hope all is well. Unfortunately an outdated indicator from a market from days gone by from an outdated book written almost 23 years ago.
  • I was wondering if other MFO's users were have problems with different devices that use Apple ?
    Yep. Just hit me. For 20 years I’ve relied on DejaOffice on ipad to maintain all my records (contacts, colander & much more) It’s been easy to email backup files every few days to my icloud mail account which is strictly employed for nothing else. Good backup & a way to synchronize all my devices.
    Today, after installing the latest IOS 13 the emailed backup files won’t load onto the Deja app. Seems to be something inherent in the new IOS. So those backups are useless. There’s a second way to do this: Create a “Dropbox” account and backup and retrieve Deja files on that. So far. So good. But a lot of hassle.
    My ipads also back up their entire content to Apple’s cloud automatically. So Deja files should be there. But using that method would require replacing everything on the ipad, rather than just the Deja files. I suppose Apple would prefer I use their own in house apps for record keeping. But I like Deja and it would be a mamouth undertaking to transfer all those files to Apple’s own system.
    @Old_Joe is right about not fixing what ain’t broken. But if I followed that advice all the time my devices would all be running the same software they were using 20 years ago and probably wouldn’t even support most of today’s applications.
  • RLSFX
    I still own some gold and silver, IAU and SLV, but I believe they are both slightly negative YTD. I swore off miners years ago.
  • Jimmy Boy
    Thanks for the reminder about PURIX.
    "Publicly available information on Fisher's funds and strategies showed mixed performance.
    The Purisima Total Return Fund, for example, returned well under half of the S&P 500 Index
    in its final 10 years before it was liquidated in 2016, according to data compiled by Bloomberg."

    Link
    While I'm hardly defending Fisher here, comparing PURIX (Purisima Total Return Fund) with the S&P 500, as done in the cited article, is misleading.
    From the fund's final prospectus, dated Dec 31, 2015:
    "The Fund seeks to achieve its objective by investing in a portfolio allocated between domestic and foreign common stocks and other equity-like securities ..."
    The benchmark given in the prospectus is the MSCI World Index. The fund still significantly underperformed that benchmark (by around 0%-25% depending on timeframe). Lackluster at best, but nowhere near as great an underperformance as the article asserted in comparing the fund with the wrong benchmark.
    FWIW, from that prospectus, the performance of PURIX ("The Fund’s year-to-date return as of September 30, 2015 was -5.43%"):
    image
    Liquidation was about six months after the prospectus:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1019946/000089418916009530/purisma_497e.htm
  • Worst day for bonds I’ve seen in a while
    I'm buying VGSH and VGIT each time they hit 52 week lows. Looking to capture decent yield for the first time in years, and treasury's will still be inverse to equities in a real crises as opposed to just rising rates. Feeling good about this, short-term pain for long term gain. I'll start nibbling at EDV when the 10 year crosses over 2%.
  • Jimmy Boy
    Good entertainment but dreadful substance. I watch CNBC every morning and have for years. Before the big run in energy Cramer was calling big oil dead money and uninvestable, said that ESG meant these could not be in mutual fund portfolios. This week he was praising Exxon like it's Apple from 15 years ago.
  • Jimmy Boy
    Thanks for the reminder about PURIX.
    "Publicly available information on Fisher's funds and strategies showed mixed performance.
    The Purisima Total Return Fund, for example, returned well under half of the S&P 500 Index
    in its final 10 years before it was liquidated in 2016, according to data compiled by Bloomberg."

    Link
  • Jimmy Boy
    He's offered some decent prognostication commentaries regarding markets and investing over the years but I would bever trade or make specific investment decisions from his show, which he even admits is entertainment first.
  • Jimmy Boy
    @Mark,
    Thanks for the link.
    Market prognosticators make predictions that are often forgotten by investors.
    These individuals' past prediction history can be very revealing.
    The majority of "gurus" listed on the Guru Grades site have an accuracy rating of less than 50%*.
    I was surprised to learn that Ken Fisher had the second highest accuracy rating (66.4%).
    I've been bombarded with ads from his firm, Fisher Investments, over the years.
    *I haven't researched Guru Grades' grading methodolgy.