I used to be exclusively at M*, and for years, resisted posting elsewhere. But various M* platform changes, and loss of contents with each move, forced me to change my web/social-media approach.
Now, I am at several platforms. Each has its unique flavor and circle of people. Some stuff is duplicated but not much.
Covid downtime in 2020 also gave me time to reconstruct lot of my lost content at M* that I put on the YBB Site (a refence site, NOT a discussion site) and now just refer to it rather than posting same/similar stuff repeatedly in response to Qs.
BTW, some at Twitter are pointing out that Twitter may have saved us from WWIII, an overstatement that has some validity. Early mainstream media reports on the Russian missile strike in Poland and possible use of NATO Article 5 (when many world leaders were at G20 in Bali, Indonesia) were not based on facts. I saw at Twitter that several posters from Ukraine, Poland and elsewhere (including the US) posted conflicting info. My earliest posting on a related MFO thread was based on those reports (but there was no single link for them). Musk has tweeted (with obvious self interest) that the coverage of the recent missile event and FTX-Alameda collapse in the crypto universe have been more timely and better than in the mainstream media.

And now for a potential China "bull case"...
The following excerpt is from the 'Points of Return' newsletter (John Authers) published today.
That leads to a final question: Why would anyone be bullish about China at present? Its problems are evident, and most international investors will justifiably hate the current political direction. Andy Rothman, investment strategist and veteran China-watcher at Matthews Asia, agrees that watching for progress on Covid Zero, and particularly for a pickup in vaccination rates, which have been falling, is most important. Providing the country can find a way out of lockdowns, he offers the following “bull case” for 2023:
China is likely to remain the only major economy engaged in serious easing, while much of the world is tightening.
Chinese households have been in savings mode since the start of the pandemic, with family bank account balances up 42% from the beginning of 2020.
Those funds should fuel a consumer rebound, and an A-share recovery, as domestic investors hold about 95% of that market.

I've been following Andy since his days at CLSA. I'm a fan of his story telling. However, he's lost a lot of credability over the years. When have you EVER heard Andy NOT be BULLISH on China? There is optimism...and there is being biased or saying what you want to happen. Andy has become much more the latter.
Plus...he now works for Matthews, which has a vested interest in saying "China is a great asset class". Perhaps the combo of Andy being now at Matthews makes me more skeptical (plus, Matthews has had a mass exodus of portfolio management talent...yet Andy for some reason stays).
Andy has to change things up every once in awhile or he sounds like a biased broken record.

I still know a few fund managers at Matthews...there is hardly anyone good left there, and the good ones are actively looking for new opportunities (or so I hear).
Not suprising. The firm has gone down the toilet unfortunately. They brought in a new CEO this summer, but way too late as former CEO Bill Hackett and his management team were apparently asleep at the wheel for 10 years, which finally drove a number of key portfolio managers to greener pastures.
I agree with others. New CEO obviously trying to make up for lost time and try new products. However, the foundation of the firm has departed and the remaining lot is rotten. When they'll get rid of Robert Horrocks is a question I've been asking for years now.
I've moved my clients who seek Asia and Emerging Markets exposure to other managers. 20 years ago, Matthews was the only game in town. Thankfully, competitors have really improved their Emerging Markets expertise, meanwhile Matthews never evolved. There are plenty of other good options out there.
A sad story of how not to lead an investment firm, but as investors, we're fortunate to have plenty of other options.

@Crash, @msf I am with Andrews in their 60 months CDs that were offered a few years back and yes I saw this promo.

sma3: "Maybe the "smart money" assumes that interest rates are going down in 2 to 4 years."
Personally, I have chosen to not go longer term in CDs. I will stay with a small ladder of shorter term CDs, and if I see the market conditions improving for bond oefs, I have several CDs maturning in the next 1 to 6 months, that will afford me several options for investing decisions. As retired investor in my mid 70s, I just want to preserve principal, and produce a nice total return, with low risk opportunities.

Go to page 10 here: https://riverparkfunds.com/assets/pdfs/rpsthyf/commentary/RiverPark-Cohanzick_3Q22_Shareholder_Letter.pdf

Those yields, if realized, would result in the fund's best performance ever and would exceed any return short-term CDs are going to offer with, one hopes, the relative safety the fund has afforded since its inception. But would they stretch over the following few years, the way locked-in, medium-term CD rates would? I wish I knew.

there is USBank 4.58% 3 year CD non-callable. Several other 3 years CDs, but all callable
I skimmed through the other bonds
Almost all either corporate CDs etc being offered at Schwab are callable.
Maybe the "smart money" assumes that interest rates are going down in 2 to 4 years.
Maybe better off in longer term treasuries even though yield worse. Have to do the math to make sure.

I ended a Prime membership in part because packages are delivered ahead of estimates anyway (and I'm just not that impatient) which suggests to me lots of deliverers making fewer deliveries. Still, I live in a condo and already the daily Amazon drop-off looks like we're heavy into the holiday season.

WIth at least 18 warehouses within my city (as of 1½ years ago), I get free delivery as fast as Prime, including on Sundays.
Package clutter is a common problem these days for multi-unit buildings. It can even become a safety issue and a fire hazard. Solving the problem isn't easy and may not be cheap to do.
In my building it's a year round problem, only worse around holidays. Our condo board has been "investigating" solutions for nearly three years and AFAIK has stopped trying for now. (I finally quit the board out of frustration.)
Kudos to OJ for planning well. Often people seem to go out of town and let their packages pile up for days or even longer.
I don't get Amazon doing deep cuts - they seem to be quite diversified
Notable in the Amazon announcement is that while Amazon is cutting development ("technology"), it isn't (yet) cutting warehouse or delivery staff. At least so far Amazon doesn't appear to expect its sales or our package clutter to diminish.

the souring global economy has put pressure on [Amazon] to trim businesses that have been overstaffed or underdelivering for years.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/14/technology/amazon-layoffs.html

Crash I don't think it's as simple as scrambling a bunch of jets and/or cruise missiles and having a go. The human cost could be huge and Putin might possibly obliterate Ukraine with a nuke or two because he's that crazy. I'd like to think that we (US, NATO) are prepared to protect Ukraine if that happens before responding. I know what I'd like to do but I don't know the right answer here despite 2 years of combat duty.

Hi @Sven et al
The current % data is two weeks after the first data reported in the October 24- October 28 period of this thread. As the current large price percent gains are likely mostly reflected from a more favorable CPI report (FED backing off???), which caused yields to move down a lot within a short time frame.
Yield % changes last week:
--- 30 year = -6.5%
--- 10 year = -7.3%
--- 5 year = -7.5%
--- 1 year = -3.3%
SO, for me; I would/will watch price changes in the Gov't issues in the list; if it was understood/known/announced that the FED was slowing down rate increases.
AND looking at the moves from last week, the top gainers were the longer duration issues.....10 years +. And if one has some sleepy money laying about, you could take a walk on the wild side and go for TMF. This etf will fly high.......although for how long would not be known and the investment would need to be carefully watched.
Remain curious,
Catch

There is much I don't understand regarding crypto, therefor I don't invest/speculate in it. Over the last handful of years I have tried to educate myself about crypto a bit as my neighbor is a national sales manager for a company now owned by NCR which sells software for among other things, ATM machines at which individuals can purchase crypto for a fee.
I just read an article that states FTX "invented" a token (FTT) to ease trading on its platform.
What the heck does that mean or work?

Regarding my forray into crypto in recent years:
- I'm glad my 'traditional' investing horse-sense/experience kept me safe and skeptical, meaning I did the necessary due diligence on investments, (counterparty) risks, & exchanges.
- I'm glad I went w/an exchange that is regulated as much as possible, not the one w/the flashiest ads, bonuses, or stadium naming rights.
- I'm glad I got all-out in mid-Spring before things turned for the worse. Used that 'fun' $$ to help pay for condo renovations that just wrapped up last week.
IMO the 'crypto winter' has become an MF Global-reckoning for the crypto industry. Regulation is needed!

Greatly diminished choices and longer maturities have gone away. Because of Bank holiday or a tipping point in rate expectations? Same at Fido and Vanguard?

Let's think about it.
1) Inflation is much higher than CD. You lose money.
2) High inflation most likely will go down, 1-2 years from now. This is why you can't get CD for 10 years. I see 5 years at 4.95%. Good chance, it will be higher than inflation in a few years.
3) Short term is the sweet spot at 3 months. Treasuries are better, they pay more than CD and you don't pay Fed taxes in a taxable account. It's also easier to buy big amounts. This allows you to invest later in bond funds with a good possibility to make 10+% from the bottom (maybe in already) in 12-18 months after rates will stop going up. Remember, bonds have one of the worst first 6 months in history and a good chance to recoup all their losses.
4) I don't like to lock my money for even 3 months as a bond OEF trader. I traded several times in 2022 successfully, and a good trade can come any day. MM paying over 3.7% or more is pretty good too.

What I read indicates that there will be massive amounts of bonds someone needs to buy with the increasing deficit and the fed "rolling off" their inventory with QT. They won't buy more when the bond matures, but money has to go somewhere
There is a lot of foreign selling as Governments try to defend their currancies against a strong dollar. This may ease somewhat.
Still with increased supply compared to QE for last what 10 years?, prices will drop, and yields will go up.

@Junkster- yes sir, I surely agree with DavidF. There's always room for insights from all aspects of investing, and "trading" surely qualifies. Don't be so skittish- I've enjoyed your contributions for many years.
Regards- OJ

Charles Ellis is a font of investment wisdom.
I plan to read his new book - "Figuring It Out: Sixty Years of Answering Investors' Most Important Questions."

Another follow up,
https://www.barrons.com/articles/market-losses-reduce-capital-gains-tax-51668037376?mod=past_editions
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/362/barron-november-14-2022-2
TAX STRATEGIES. Use tax-loss harvesting (TLH) this year for benefits in future years. Tax-loss CARRYFORWARDS don’t expire and can be used to offset future gains and up to $3,000/yr in ordinary income from net losses. Beware of WASH-SALE rule (to avoid +/- 30 day window for transactions). Use DOUBLE-UP strategy (buy to double position by November 29, sell the older lot on December 30, the last trading day of 2022), OR swap with something SIMILAR but not identical right away (easily possible with so many OEFs and ETFs). REINVESTING may cause small disallowances due to wash-sale, but they don’t spoil the entire TLH; one can also discontinue reinvestments to avoid this issue. With large declines in both stocks and bonds, consider TLH for all types of funds (stocks, bonds, hybrids). If you have losses in CRYPTOS, note that wash-sale rules don’t apply (but the IRS may not like immediate buys/sells). OTHER strategies: Delay/SHIFT income to lower tax years; use annual GIFTS of up to $16K/yr/person (2022), $17K/yr/person (2023) to avoid filing the Form 709 (complicated, but also doable); ROTH CONVERSIONS (immediate tax hit, but withdrawals are tax-free in retirement and no RMDs); CHARITABLE contributions.

Nov 12th Episode

As the markets fluctuate around us, how much should investors change?
This week’s guest has his own historical perspective on that question because he has lived through a momentous evolution in the markets. He is Charles Ellis, whose storied career started on Wall Street in 1963 after graduating from the Harvard Business School. He was a skeptical analyst during the go-go years of the 60s and founded Greenwich Associates, the top Wall Street consulting firm to major investment firms, institutions, and governments.
He was an influential board member of Yale’s endowment advising its legendary head, David Swensen. He’s taught advanced investment courses at both Yale and Harvard. And he has authored 20 investment books, including the classic, Winning the Loser’s Game, now in its 8th edition, and the recently published Figuring It Out: Sixty Years of Answering Investors’ Most Important Questions, which we will discuss in this week’s exclusive TV interview.
In the first of a two-part interview, Ellis will discuss the most significant changes that have occurred in the markets and what they mean for investors.

Panic buying to lock in attractive rates for next 2-5 years;another version of Fear Of Missing Out !