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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • TRP: Active Funds Outperformed Passive Peers
    T. Rowe Price released a research report claiming that, over the last 20 years, its actively managed funds have consistently outperformed passive peer funds – net of fees.
    https://www.troweprice.com/content/dam/trp-ecl/global/en/ipc/assets/us-retail-intermediary/2022/quarterly-updates/passive-peers-methodology-summary.pdf?van=performancestudy
  • Steady rising yields in CDs and treasuries
    At Fido, lucky to see 4.8% or 4.9% non-callable 3 year CDs. They go fast, if you can even catch them.
    Forget about getting much above 4% (non-callable) for any CDs dated longer than that.
    Banks have made the decision that rates will come down within the next few years. Which makes sense. They are going to protect themselves and their profits.
    This rate cycle has peaked for 3 yr CDs (and longer).
  • Jerome Powell Signals Fed Prepared to Slow Rate-Rise Pace in December
    For sure. I'm definitely getting the feeling that if you want to buy CDs (and of course, other bond-like instruments) with a decent rate (close to 5%) you're not going to find much going out more than a couple of years, and I shouldn't be surprised to see fewer of those as we go forward. That inverted yield curve is really wicked.
  • Carbon neutral fuels , how to invest ?
    I have dabbled in a few small companies but it is hard to 1) pick the correct technology and 2) even harder to predict it will work.
    There are many people, with much more engineering and scientific expertise that I have, spending their careers on this. For an example Google "Thunder Said Energy". Unfortunately their reports cost $500 each.
    I have instead been working on picking the best few Climate Change funds.
    Few have been around for very long, and the best may be GCCHX ( $5,000,000 minimum) but I would also look at
    NALFX GCEBX RKCIX HEOMX
    They are actively managed and cover a variety of climate change issues.
    Something else I am trying is Valueline has a monthly newsletter on "Climate Change " companies that is reasonably priced at $200 for two years
  • MAPIX downgrade: Morningstar.
    I abandoned MAPIX and Matthews a few years ago. Another star that went nova and then died.
  • Crypto investing coming to your 401(K) account
    With all due respect to Elizabeth Warren, Dick Durbin and Tina Smith, IMHO cryptocurrency is no more unsuitable today for employer-sponsored plans than it was a month ago. Their current letter is more or less a followup to a similar but more extensive letter sent by Senators Warren and Smith in May. That in turn came after DOL issued guidance on cryptocurrency in 401(k) plans in March, emphasizing its risks.
    Fidelity isn’t the first company to give 401(k) participants access to cryptocurrency assets. Another industry provider, ForUsAll Inc., has linked workers with cryptocurrency exchanges through brokerage windows for several years. Fidelity takes a different approach with its Digital Asset Accounts product, which doesn’t rely on outside exchanges or brokerage windows.
    Employee Benefit Plan Review, October 2022, Volume 76, Number 8, pages 16-19. CCH Incorporated.
    (Published before FTX's collapse)
    The genie has been out of the bottle since brokerage windows were allowed. Fidelity just provided another route to the same investments. That's not to say that plan sponsors have no responsibility for how those windows are used. The DOL guidance hints at that. Quoting again from CCH:
    DOL provides a clear and definite warning to plan fiduciaries:
    The plan fiduciaries responsible for overseeing such investment options or allowing such investments through brokerage windows should expect to be questioned about how they can square their actions with their duties of prudence and loyalty in light of the risks described above.
    While the focus of this guidance is on 401(k) plans, the DOL’s warnings also extend to plans and plan fiduciaries responsible for allowing cryptocurrency investments through self-directed brokerage windows.
    One way of addressing this is to set limits. As stated in the OP, Fidelity sets a 20% limit. So the 20% Bitcoin decline in value lamented in the senators' letter would have resulted in a 4% or less decline in a participant's plan value. Significant but not catastrophic. And ForUSAll sets an even tighter limit, just 5%.
    Finally, note that while some senators are advocating caution, others welcome wild west investing in retirement accounts.
    Update: A Partisan Divide

    The Department of Labor's cryptocurrency guidance has provoked contrasting responses on Capital [sic] Hill.

    On May 5, Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala. introduced legislation that would prohibit the DOL from limiting the kinds of products workplace retirement savers can invest in through self-directed brokerage accounts.
    A day earlier, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., criticized Fidelity Investments for its decision to launch a new 401(k) cryptocurrency product, in a May 4 letter to Fidelity CEO Abigail Johnson.
    https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/hr-topics/benefits/pages/dol-guidance-could-crimp-401k-brokerage-windows.aspx (Limit 3 free articles per month)
  • Bruce Fund. BRUFX: holding lotsa cash
    Just out of curiosity, I ran a screener on MFO for funds with a manager tenure of >= 20 years, 20 year performance and SubType = US Equity
    Top of the pack is FDGRX with APR = 13.8
    FCNTX with APR = 11 comes in at #19
    Just one narrow angle on the data, not suggesting that FCNTX is not a great fund.
    ** Note that MFO data is updated monthly only so these stats are for end of month October 2022.
  • Bruce Fund. BRUFX: holding lotsa cash
    Giroux makes big high conviction bets but his long term track record is pretty strong. I don't think Giroux performance(or most long tenured managers) can be judged by any time period less than 3 years.
    Always a risk of a long term performance going off the rails though -- Exhibit A: Berkowitz.
  • Bruce Fund. BRUFX: holding lotsa cash
    Giroux does openly assert that his strategy is to maximize profit while allowing for only about 2/3 of the average market volatility, generally. I won't get into an analysis of the numbers you have both reported. I guess wifey and I hold the best of both worlds, with these two. BRUFX and PRWCX. But it's foolish under our current circumstances to add to them with new money. Not enough reportable income. If we did that, they would be non-deductible contributions, while also being tax-free upon withdrawal. I'm already withdrawing money annually from the IRA, and according to the ridiculously arcane and convoluted IRS formula, the tax-free, non-deductible portion is just a fraction of the full amount of my customary annual withdrawal. My tax guy understands it.
    "Hello, IRS? I'm holding $5,000 in my T-IRA which is non-taxable and non-deductible from several years ago, before realizing that it is counter-productive to deposit $$$ into a T-IRA when there's no deduction to be had.
    Why don't I just withdraw that $5000 in one lump, and be done with it?"
    IRS: "Sorry. No. THAT would make TOO MUCH SENSE! We can't have THAT!"
  • Latest memo from Howard Marks.
    Looking at last few years of distributions, another distro in 2022 is possible but I'm basing this purely on the pattern of prior distros.
  • Bruce Fund. BRUFX: holding lotsa cash
    Haven't been following BRUFX recently but followed it closely for many years. I don't recollect this amount of cash being unusual for BFUFX at major inflection points. BRUFX makes high conviction bets and isn't scared going off the beaten path.
  • Alexa, how did Amazon’s voice assistant rack up a $10bn loss?
    The tech giant’s flawed business model for its popular smart devices has cost the company a fortune and thousands of jobs
    A commentary by John Naughton, in The Guardian
    Following are edited excerpts from that commentary:
    Intrigued by an Ars Technica post about Amazon’s Alexa that suggested all was not well in the tech company’s division that looks after its smart home devices, I went rooting in a drawer where the Echo Dot I bought years ago had been gathering dust. Having found it, and set it up to join the upgraded wifi network that hadn’t existed when I first got it, I asked it a question: “Alexa, why are you such a loss-maker?” To which she calmly replied: “This might answer your question: mustard gas, also known as Lost, is manufactured by the United States.” At which point, I solemnly thanked her, pulled the power cable and returned her to the drawer, where she will continue to gather dust until I can think of an ecologically responsible way of recycling her.
    Initially, it looked like a shrewd beachhead for the invasion of our homes. Alexa became a kind of hub for other IoT (internet of things) gizmos – lights, thermostats, heaters, doorbells and so on. Clearly, other tech giants also thought it was significant – Apple, Google and Facebook raced to get their home hubs over our thresholds. And people seemed to like using Alexa: children loved conning her into saying stupid things, while their elders used her to set timers for cooking, compiling shopping lists, playing music, requesting definitions of words or information from Wikipedia and so on. But since it was of no real use to me, I switched it off and put it away, assuming that Amazon’s big bet had really paid off.
    How wrong can you be? “Amazon Alexa is a ‘colossal failure’,” ran Ars Technica’s headline, “on pace to lose $10bn this year.” It was picking up on a long piece by Business Insider reporting that during the first quarter of this year Amazon’s worldwide digital unit, which includes everything from the Echo smart speakers and Alexa voice technology to the Prime Video streaming service, had an operating loss of more than $3bn, the “vast majority” of which was accounted for by Alexa and related devices and was the largest among all of Amazon’s business units.
    So what went wrong? Basically, the business model underpinning Alexa failed to deliver. The company thought that the Echo device (which apparently was sold at cost) would lead people to buy more stuff on Amazon. And when more than 5m of the devices were sold in its first two years, that must have looked like a plausible idea, especially when it transpired Alexa was getting a billion interactions a week!
    Sadly, it seems that most of those “conversations” with the device were rather like mine had been: trivial and inconsequential. And, as time went on, the “smart assistants” offered by the other tech giants muscled in on the market. Alexa, with 71.6 million users, now occupies third place but even the thought that the other two are also losing money on their gizmos will not provide much consolation for the Alexa team as its unit is slimmed down.
    Amazon, which went on a hiring spree during the pandemic, is now, like all the big tech outfits, shedding jobs on an industrial scale; beginning this month, it plans to lay off 10,000 workers, quite a few of whom will probably be in its hardware division. So maybe the industry is about to discover that invasions – of homes as well as countries – don’t always work out as well as you hoped.
  • Latest memo from Howard Marks.
    In order to try and find those elusive asymmetrical managers, I set up multisearch to screen for funds with alphas =>0, top rating for max draw down, and top rating for max upside. I set the fund age to five years to include the best of times, and the worst of times.
    Then to the display columns I added alpha, and the up-down numbers. Out of curiosity I added R vs SP500. And I always add the ulcer index column to cover my IRA.
    I didn't find any G managers. But you might find someone that interests you
  • U S TREASURY BILL DUE 04/20/23 DTD 04/21/22
    Yes, you have pinpointed the important variables to consider as the interest rate situation is fluid. I am getting yields well above money market funds (in CDs and treasury ladders). Will continue to add as Fed hike rates in order to capture higher yields. When the yield curve flattens out, then it is time to go longer duration, > 2 years or longer. At that point, we may be in recession unfortunately. Hopefully that may be a mild recession and not nearly as bad as 2008’s GRC.
    Will have adequate dry power to buy bond funds as the shorter duration CD and treasury mature. The timing depends on when the Fed stops rising rates. Second half of 2023? If recession gets bad and the Fed may cut rates. So there are number of different scenarios that can play out next year.
  • Thanks YBB
    Thanks!
    The 2+ years that I have been at the MFO have also coincided with the time for my switch from a dedicated single-site poster to a multi-site poster. Now MFO (really a funds+ site) is among the sites that I visit more often. I found several old friends here (from elsewhere) as well as many new friends.
    My thanks also to many posters who contribute to the success of MFO. My special thanks to @David_Snowball who has been welcoming and supportive from the beginning.
  • RPHIX vs US Treasuries vs CDs
    FD: "RPHIX is a unique bond fund. I don't think you can find another one for 2022, with that kind of low SD + performance. The fund is closed to new investors at Fidelity and Schwab."
    Yep, for years, this bond oef was the best alternative, to CDs and MMFs that paid nothing. I often used it as my safe harbor to get through rough bond oef market periods. I still hold a few shares in it, just in case it did close, so I could use it in the future, if I wanted to. Maybe I will use it again at some point in the future, but for now, it is not as compelling of an alternative, to MMFs and short term CDs, as it once was. It is always good to have "options" when you need them!
  • Tax prep software sending personal information to Meta
    I have been using https://www.taxhawk.com/ for years.
    Federal filing is always free. State is $14.99, but every year, they have 10% coupon.
    It's simple, but can also do complicate scenarios. You can ask questions, and you get answers within several hours. It remembers the numbers from last year.
    When I checked years ago against the big tax software, Taxhawk was easier and cheaper of course.
  • In emerging markets, the bulls are back again
    gotcha, yogi. If I stick with my fav. junk bond fund for, ... let's say 39 years, maybe the ups and downs will even-out?
  • Crypto investing coming to your 401(K) account
    Three US Senators have urged Fidelity to stop its 401(k) sponsor partners from offering bitcoin exposure — likening crypto investing to “catching lightning in a bottle.”
    In a Monday letter penned to Fidelity CEO Abigail Johnson, Democrat Senators Elizabeth Warren, Dick Durbin and Tina Smith argue that crypto markets have become riskier following FTX’s sudden collapse, making bitcoin unsuitable for retirement plans.
    Boston-based Fidelity began allowing employees to put as much as 20% of their retirement savings into bitcoin exposure this fall.
    The crypto industry considered the move a strong sign of shifting institutional sentiment toward the 12 year old asset class, although bitcoin has shed some 60% of its value since Fidelity flagged the 401(k) move in late April.
    Fidelity, which overall boasts some $9.6 trillion in assets under administration, is the largest individual retirement plan (IRA) provider in the US — supporting more than 35 million IRA, 401(k) and 403(b) retirement accounts. As of 2020, FIdelity controlled more than a third of the retirement fund market in the US, maintaining $2.4 trillion in 401(k) assets.
    https://blockworks.co/news/senators-fidelity-stop-offering-bitcoin-401ks
    For full disclosure, Fidelity was my past 401(k) plan administrator. The choices were solid and their service, phone or online, were second to none. Outside of that, they also have been our main brokerage for many years.
  • Tax prep software sending personal information to Meta
    @Ben,that what we have done for many years until 2020 pandemic. I understand that paper filing requires an IRS agent to enter your data manually and they are prone to human error. Also you get your refund longer to complete. Some takes over 6 months, presumably they have lengthy returns. We will go back to that route this year.