Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Blackrock Systematic Multi Strategy Fund (BAMBX)
    So you're going to put your monies into something like that based on one day's performance? [...]
    Your money, do with it what you feel is best for you. This fund is not for me. Been burned by iqdax,. Learning my lesson.
    I wish you good investing and good luck @fred495
    Baseball Fan

    What am I missing? There was nothing in my comment about BAMBX's performance record over the past five years that would indicate I was going to put my money into this fund. I would certainly never purchase any fund based on one day's performance.
    Seems you misunderstood the purpose of my posting, Fan.
    Good luck,
    Fred
  • Blackrock Systematic Multi Strategy Fund (BAMBX)
    (Lipper* generally quotes from the manager’s description):
    “The Fund seeks total return comprised of current income and capital appreciation. BlackRock will invest the Funds assets through a diversified set of strategies that seek to provide total return comprised of current income and capital appreciation in both periods of strong returns and periods of market stress.”
    77% in bonds likely reason the fund was up a bit yesterday. Longer dated high quality bonds were up sharply.
    Since the asset breakdown on Lipper adds up to 100%, it’s unlikely they’re doing much (if any) shorting - which generally skews the total to something over 100.
    I tend to like Blackrock. Rock Rieder, one of their fixed income people, talks a good game. Bright and articulate.
    No fund is a “spaghetti bowl” if one is willing to invest the time and energy into exploring the contents. In the case of TMSRX I’ve not done the due diligence I probably should have, trusting in TRP whom I’ve been with for about 30 years to run that complex fund on the straight and narrow and not put my money at excessive risk. But that’s laziness on my part - not dereliction on theirs.
    @Baseball_Fan - Could you share a little about your current investment approach? What do you like in addition to near 0% cash? I recall about 6-7 months ago you were buying Home Depot and also looking for inflation hedges. The problem with those inflation hedges is that a lot of other people caught the scent in the wind 6 months ago and chased. It’s a diverse lot. Some areas (certain industrial metals) are doing fine and may not be overpriced. But it’s a rough playing field as evidenced by the more than 6% drop in oil yesterday.
    *Link to BAMBX Lipper profile: http://www.funds.reuters.wallst.com/US/funds/overview.asp?YYY622_6m0GgCfSF7IkKdT1pfwHShuZTH3KwZb8EX/lL+8rQLcR/QKIWm+VprdhsazlKneG
  • Time to sell TMSRX
    POAGX is closed to new investors for several years. Count yourself lucky if you already an investor. The other two PRIMECAP funds, Odyssey Growth Fund, POGRX and Odyssey Stock fund, POSKX are still open.
  • Time to sell TMSRX
    @bee - Thanks.
    Obviously something is screwed up there. Note that for 1 year the fund ranks 25th among its peer group, while for 3 years it ranks much better - 7th. So I’ll guess they haven’t updated their numbers on the chart you pasted to reflect the current year’s lackluster performance.
    However, if the fund’s potential “worst case” downside really is 65% as they claim, I’d suggest not buying it. Such a disastrous year would leave only 35% of the fund’ value remaining. Seems to me like you’d have to earn nearly 200% on that meager sum to get back to break-even the following year.
    -
    Added - I didn’t intend to recommend Ferris’ site. It’s just one of several I click on from time to time for a wide variety of views. Morningstar and Lipper are also helpful for broad overviews. For specific fund holdings and year-to year-performance it’s hard to top Yahoo. I buy very few new funds. Usually put candidates on a watch list and monitor for at least a few months before buying. MaxFunds seems to be the most critical in its assessments - for whatever reason.
  • Life Insurance Issuers Adding Riskier Investments
    Good point about insurance companies in general.
    But I have personally seen an insurance RUN - Mutual Benefit Life (MBL). It was a provider in my 403b. My BIG mistake was that when I first heard the news of the run, I tried to alert out HR person in-charge. I should have joined the run instead. Oh well, my money was just frozen for half-dozen years. No money lost in an absolute sense, but only in the sense of opportunity costs.
    I also learned how the state insurance programs work (or don't work). They certainly don't work like the FDIC insurance for failed banks.
  • Time to sell TMSRX
    That’s a personal decision. For some it would be the right one.
    A cold night in hell before I sell. Noticed early on that the fund often remains flat or rises on days when equities falter. So for me it balances out the load in an increasingly defensive age-appropriate portfolio. In less than 4 years of existence it’s achieved 4+% annual. That’s better than a lot of short and intermediate term bond funds and hands-down better than cash. But all of us, I think, had hoped for more.
    If it’s more of a “dog” recently I hadn’t noticed. But that would likely be due to exposure to gold and other non-dollar assets along with domestic bonds. All of these have suffered of late. With gold it’s probably temporary. With bonds I fear it’s terminal.
    My bias … I’ve owned TRP funds for around 30 years and believe them very good at making wise allocation decisions and strong macro-reads. However, those macro-calls are often early. I suspect a saying going around in their inner circle might be: “Investors can remain irrational longer than defensive funds can remain in existence.” Since they’ve added a slug of it to a number of their allocation and target date funds, TMSRX’s existence is probably not threatened. Many here may own it without realizing it.
    FWIW - I recently unloaded 25% of PRPFX after remaining hands-off for a decade. Had grown to too large a position in the portfolio. Plus - sounds from a recent Barron’s piece (posted here) that Cuggino is beginning to toy around with the allocation more than usual - adding more equities. That will make the fund riskier than in the past. And might help answer a question @bee raised several months ago - “What’s driving PRPFX?”. Harry Browne must be tossing in his slumber.
    Like I said at the onset - For less risk averse investors TMSRX is probably one to sell. But recognize you’re sacrificing some downside protection.
  • Small-caps at all?
    Agree with Crash...AFDVX is a good research idea! I currently own ASVIX and it's outperforming this year and has exceptional #'s over the past 3 years as well.
    Curious how others diversify their small cap choices...I prefer starting with Style and have Growth, Blend and Value in both of our (Rollover) retirement accounts.
    AFDVX could be a replacement option for ASVIX...slightly cheaper, slightly more value focused (P/E), Sector allocations are better fit (somethimes I get hungup on this)
    IRA -
    BCSIX
    MSCFX
    BRSVX
    IRA (Wife) -
    OSTGX
    DSCPX
    ASVIX
  • Life Insurance Issuers Adding Riskier Investments
    Silent consfication thru silent tax called inflation take from producers and those who work
    And what do you call it when companies extract ever-increasing profits from their employees for forty years without paying them a living wage while their CEOs make over 300 times their lowest paid workers? The minimum wage has actually fallen when adjusted for inflation since the 1980s while stock profits have soared. If we are experiencing wage inflation now, so be it.
  • Small-caps at all?
    I owned MSCFX years ago. .... @JonGaltIII and @Sven. Glad for my Balanced funds, for sure. A couple of years ago, I deliberately concentrated and streamlined the portfolio, for simplicity. I do rebalancing in January, and take an estimated yearly chunk out, then. Thank you for the responses. I'll look at the linked funds, too. GGSOX looks like fun, but it's a bit of a redundancy compared to my PRIDX: 9% of portfolio.
  • Barron's
    “ … I used to subscribed to it for over quite awhile until the Great Recession where I found Barrons completely missed several signs leading to the great decline.”
    I’d concur with @Sven that Barron’s is not a particularly good barometer / predictor of major changes in market direction or sentiment. Their “Commodities Corner” bear call on gold around the 2000 -2002 period stands out in particular. Within a few weeks of the very bearish call, gold took off on a tear going from under $300 to an intermediate term peak of $700-$800 in just a few short years.
    But Barron’s is really a compilation of many different market assessments. A careful reading will reveal these. Their weekly “Market View” column (Formerly called “Quoth the Mavens”) pulls excerpts from an assortment of current financial newsletters. Often, these will contradict one another. Yet a perceptive reader may draw some reasonable inferences. Weekly columnist Randall Forsyth may fall short of being “profound” in assessing market direction or valuation - but provides an intriguing skeptic’s eye toward many financial issues - particularly keen on assessing retail investor sentiment I think.
    I’ve purchased 3 or 4 stocks over the past year based on Barron’s recommendations. All did well. Today I sold one, NGLOY, after a quick 14% run-up since they recommended it roughly 2 months ago. Still like it - but have been trimming risk wherever I can of late. So, based on some very limited experience buying their picks, I’ll guess they’re probably right more often than wrong on those recommendations.
  • Small-caps at all?
    @Crash, you need to decide of what you risk tolerance is, and 2% small cap allocation is not unreasonable. If the forecast is correct, bond return will be subdue in the next several years. Income investors need to look beyond bonds in order to compensate the deficit, i.e. dividend producing stocks, balanced funds, and others.
    As for myself, I always found smaller cap funds provide more opportunities through the market cycles. I use Queens Road Small Cap Value, QRSVX, T. Rowe Price New Horizon, PRNHX (closed to new investors), and T. Rowe Price Mid-cap Value, TRMCX. Last year PRNHX did very well but the rotation from growth to value since last fall has greatly benefited QRSVX and TRMCX. Similarly I am shifting my foreign allocation to smaller caps as well in light of EM impact and China. Grandeur Peak International Stalwarts, GISYX, is my main fund but it is closed to new investors. The global version, GGSOX, is still open.
  • Retirement Spend Down Discussion
    Yup, fascinating, and typical American industrial history.
    I think I have met, at my in-laws' house (and their funerals probably), more than one Wallace Barnes, each of course successively descended from the original ancestor.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wallace_Barnes
    My kids had part of their college educations paid for from sales of B over the years.
  • Retirement Spend Down Discussion
    150 years ago, the park system in our local town was bestowed to the city and its residence by the wealthy industrialists whose success was due in large part to its local workforce.
    https://connecticuthistory.org/mr-mrs-rockwells-park/
    Small world.
    I'm originally from Central CT and lived near Bristol.
  • Retirement Spend Down Discussion
    It seems so much good could come from all of this excess wealth, yet if such good exists, it appears under reported.
    A little off topic from this thread, but on the topic of what to do with excess wealth...
    150 years ago, the park system in our local town was bestowed to the city and its residence by the wealthy industrialists whose success was due in large part to its local workforce.
    https://connecticuthistory.org/mr-mrs-rockwells-park/
    I'm sure this happened throughout the country at the time.
    A generation later the factory work went overseas, the three family homes that once housed factory workers now are filled with section 8 housing recipients.Those less fortunate dwell in these same parks.
    We really have lost our way.
  • Small-caps at all?
    @JonGaltIII : "Separate note: when evaluating many "top performing" SC funds, the mean reversion 10+ years ''
    Would you care to comment more on that statement. Are you talking from the high point to mean or low point to mean ? Also, does this statement work for growth as well as value ?
    Thanks for your time , Derf
  • Small-caps at all?
    I own WAMCX and MSSMX ... the latter can be much more volatile and has had a tough year. I wasn't aware of CSMVX but @gk3105gklm keeps mentioning interesting funds to me. To your question... it depends on if you can stomach the volatility in SC for the increase in returns over the SPY. It probably wouldn't be a "main" component but I understood your question to be ... any percentage. Yes would be my answer. A smaller percentage. Separate note: when evaluating many "top performing" SC funds, the mean reversion 10+ years
  • Social Security Claiming Strategies - Claim Early & Invest
    +1 @Crash. The "Best-laid plans" phrase comes to mind when I hear an idea that has to extend for many years of due diligence to be successful. I know I don't have that mental stamina.
  • Barron's
    @MikeM -
    Personally I don’t care for online editions of various publications like Barron’s or the WP. Not sure why - but they seem to be laid out more like a website - “links on top of links.” In addition, I had a bad experience many years ago getting one publisher to stop charging my card after I cancelled the subscription..
    Amazon pioneered the Kindle reader(s) and sells subscriptions to most anything, although tracking them down on Amazon’s site is sometimes difficult. These Kindle subscriptions read more like a regular newspaper or magazine (front page to end). Essentially, you keep “turning” pages. In addition, there’s an easy to pull down index accessible from anywhere you might be.
    Prices for subscriptions are often a bit higher, One nice feature is you can go to your Amazon account and cancel anytime. And they refund the remaining balance same day. One drawback, I suppose, is the Kindle publications don’t update throughout the day. OK with me. And some readers complain about missing charts - particularly with IBD. No - I’m not a Kindle or Amazon salesman! Just trying to be helpful. The type of subscription format is really a matter of user preference.
    Devices? The Kindle app is supported by virtually any device. I have the app installed on my ipad. Works fine. Still - being the “finicky” type, I feel I get a superior reading experience from my dedicated (Amazon) Fire 8-9” tablet. The refurbished ones are cheap and quite nice - like new.
    -
    Since they’re a bit hard to track down on Amazon, here are direct links to a few financial publications available in Kindle format.
    WSJ
    Financial Times
    Barron’s
    IBD
    The Economist
  • Barron's
    Some of these deals that I have seen are for 1-2 years! If find those (they flash for a while periodically), then may be get a new subscription in the name of a family member and cancel the current one.
  • Closed-end fund IRL
    The ICI has a somewhat provincial perspective when it comes to fund history. Though its fund timeline does start with Adriaan van Ketwich's 1774 pooled investment vehicle the Eendragt Maakt Magt ("unity creates strength") trust, the ICI can't seem to acknowledge that this was a CEF. Rather, it gives the 1868 creation of the Foreign and Colonial Government Trust as the precursor to the US fund model.
    https://www.icifactbook.org/21_fb_app_b.html
    While this was the first fund in an Anglo-Saxon country, the Dutch fund came nearly a century earlier.
    K. Geert Rouwenhorst (Yale School of Management), The Origin of Mutual Funds
    In footnote 6, that paper adds that there was an even earlier (1773) plan for a similar vehicle, but it's not known whether it was ever actually launched.
    The ICI timeline goes on to give 1924 as the date of the first mutual funds in Boston. The Massachusetts Investors Trust was started in 1924. It seems that whatever other 1924 funds the ICI has in mind didn't survive, as the Putnam Investors Fund (1925) is often given as the second oldest surviving "modern" fund.
    Whether CEFs ever "caught on" is somewhat subjective, but consider:
    A "veritable epidemic of investment trusts afflicted the Nation" before the Stock Market Crash of 1929. By 1924, over $27 million had been invested in investment companies, up from less than $15 million in the prior year. In 1925, investment trusts holdings double to $150 million. Some 140 investment companies were formed between 1921 and 1926. A new investment company was being created every other day in 1928. "[B]y 1929 they were being created at the rate of almost one a day." The assets of investment companies rose to over $1 billion in 1928. Another $2.1 billion was added in 1929. Between those two years, the number of investment company shareholders increased from 55,000 to over 500,000.
    Almost all of these enterprises were "closed-end" investment companies that invested in securities rather than producing a product or service.
    Copious footnotes omitted. Jerry W. Markham, Mutual Fund Scandals - Comparative Analysis of the Role of Corporate Governance in the Regulation of Collective Investments, Hastings Business Law Journal, Volume 3, Number 1 (Fall 2006).
    Similarly, the late Harold Bierman Jr, Distinguished Professor Emeritus of Management and Finance at Cornell, wrote that "By 1929, investment trusts were very popular with investors. These trusts were the 1929 version of closed-end mutual funds."
    https://eh.net/encyclopedia/the-1929-stock-market-crash/