@LewisBraham
Unfortunately this is not the ugliest and most dangerous "completely false" tale being pushed out there, but it reinforces the others. ie the "Deep State" has control of the Government and is consciously trying to destroy traditional values of hard work, Christianity and "Capitalism".
The statistic that always impresses me is the % of the nation's wealth in the hands of the top 1% ( or 2% or 5%) vs bottom 20%, and the fact that for the lower 20 to 50% of the population inflation adjusted wages have not changed in 50 years

The other contention - that the "IRA" is significantly inflationary - is kind of interesting to consider, given that it's $350 billion over ten years, compared to say the defense budget, which extrapolates from the current appropriation to about $8 trillion over the same time span.
The trick is to cherrypick just the things you don't like in the budget and hang an "inflationary!" sign on them, and avoid mentioning the things you like, even if they cost more.

"I think feeding hungry people who don't have enough to eat is more important that whether I pay a little more for something"
Well, I'm sure that many on this board would agree with that thought, but certainly not all. And, without getting into a political debate, over the years it's always been pretty obvious who the non-believers have been.

@LewisBraham has it right. I’d add that for as long as I’ve been following markets (25+ years) there’s been a “push / pull” between the notion that the economy might teeter into either (1) a deflationary spiral or (2) runaway inflation. A debate old as time. And not an inconsequential one. We came damn near deflation during ‘07-‘08 if we are to believe top Bush Treasury officials at the time.
I’ll agree with @Baseball_Fan if he’s saying the Fed (mainly Powell) have oversimplified the situation. I myself hope they’re not really glued to the notion of 2% constant inflation because ISTM a good way to muck up the economy and possibly throw us into a deflationary spiral. (Sounds like something “central planners” inside the former Soviet Union might have concocted as their prescribed economic officialdom.)
Someone commented elsewhere there is “no deflation”. May I suggest that depends where you look? Stocks in companies are an “asset” valued in dollars as are milk and houses. When you saw off 15-25% of their value in short order, that’s a form of deflation. In fact, the resulting “lost wealth effect” typically causes consumers to pull back on spending which could lead to deflation in other areas.
I’ve said before that the worst conceivable scenario for retirees would be (1) to loose a substantial portion of their invested assets during a deflationary collapse and than (2) be hit with double-digit inflation shortly thereafter.

He would buy long-term Treasuries because the deflation risk is much higher today than it has been for the past two years
He owns European stocks and would buy emerging markets once the US dollar breaks below its 200-DMA

Don’t understand his logic either.

August CPI came in 8.3%, not much improvement. While gasoline price is down but food and others went up. Consumer spending remains strong. Core-CPI went up to 6.3% from that of July’s 6.1%.
Today, 10 years treasury moved up to 3.431% and the market falls.

Interesting discussion. I’m as confused as anyone. No real answer except be careful. Don’t throw your entire wad at this thing because it could last years. Technically the S&P isn’t even in a bear market yet - if 20% down is the criteria.
I’ve liked alternatives for some time as an (albeit expensive) replacement for equity and bond funds in a portfolio. The ones I own are down, but as a group they’ve held up better than stocks or bonds. Slow is the word if adding risk (ie buying equities or real assets). Nobody knows how long the market drop will last or how far it will go. A good start to knowing that might be to try and get in the head of Jay Powell. He’s holding most of the cards at the moment, though many other forces (economic & political) could intervene.

From this week’s Barron’s (September 12):
“The Federal Reserve now owns about a third of both the Treasury and mortgage-backed-securities markets as a result of its emergency asset-buying to prop up the U.S. economy during the Covid-19 pandemic. Two years of so-called quantitative easing doubled the central bank's balance sheet to $9 trillion, equivalent to roughly 40% of the nation's gross domestic product.”
What could possibly go wrong?

I noticed on the TRP website for the portfolio of PRWCX dated 8/31/22 that GE is no longer listed as a top 10 holding. Don't know if this is due to trimming the position a bit or total elimination of it.

Yes, and TRP is clunky when it comes to looking at a fund's portfolio beyond the top 10. In fact, I found it IMPOSSIBLE to find. Geniuses at work there, on their website. Clicking on the link labeled "See complete holdings" takes you around in circles---to nowhere.
Dated 30th June, '22, from Giroux:
"So why do we continue to hold GE? First, we have a large catalyst over the next 18 months as GE will be split into three companies. The health care business will be spun off in early 2023 and we believe this security will receive an attractive valuation given its mid-single-digit organic growth rate, margin expansion opportunity, double-digit earnings growth, and strong free cash flow. Second, the power and renewables businesses will be spun off in 2024. The leader who turned around the power business is now leading the renewables business and we have high hopes that it will be a mid-single-digit operating margin business by 2025–2026 under his leadership. Today, the market is effectively capitalizing the losses in renewables forever. The renewables business does not deserve to have an 11-figure negative value just because it is currently losing money. Third, aviation is a great business that should be poised for a decade-plus of excellent growth given how young its fleet of engines is (many have yet to go through their first or second overhaul). The sooner this business is freed from the renewables business, the better. Fourth, and maybe most importantly, even using conservative assumptions we believe the upside in GE is still substantial. When I look back over the last four years of GE, the company has had some incredibly bad luck between COVID, the supply chain, Russia, and a sudden decline in wind turbines due to a lack of renewal of the wind tax credit. But these haven’t been the only problems with our investment in GE; I have also made some process errors along the way. The range of outcomes and degree of predictability of GE has always been larger than many of our other large holdings, and as such it should have been a much smaller holding. While I continued adding to GE during periods of weakness, I was less aggressive reducing the position during periods of strength..."

I was looking for a way to understand the risk characteristics of my total portfolio and well as sub-sets within the whole.
This free app does all that. But it’s a “royal pain” to understand & use at first. I’ve spent close to 2 hours playing with it and inputting various portfolios. Handles funds and stocks. Easy to register. Use a nickname if you prefer and your choice of email for a confirmation code. Nothing else required.
What I’ve been able to do so far:
- Save 3 portfolios (the main one plus 2 sub-sets)
- Compare multiple years’ performance / volatility (including current) on a variety of formats (bar, graph, etc.) to a chosen benchmark (changeable when desired)
- By clicking “metrics” pull up a wide range of metrics applicable to a given portfolio. The benchmark selected defaults to a “beta” of 1. I found, for example, that my overall beta is about .95% of one of TRP’s conservative 40/ 60 funds. For those concerned about “drawdown” it calculates those numbers as well.
- It’s possible ro run some tests before registering. I used my “Alternative Assets” sub-portfolio with just 7 holdings for that purpose.
- Would be interested to know if anyone else finds this thing useful and in what ways.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/

bee , here's what I'm looking at. After high sentiment in '90 & '08 the next two years were up as / S&P500. Will that hold this time around ? As you stated , probably more pain to come.
Guess I'll be upping my CD's after next rate hike.
Trying to enjoy the ride, Derf

I charted Vanguard Wellesley (VWIAX) against the Total US Market (VTSMX) over the time frame 2008 - 2013. @Derf, be prepared to give your investment the time for the market to recover (5 years or longer). That said, I think we are at a point where more "pain" will impact the market (via the Fed). Bearish Market sentiment may stay high for a bit longer.
My short term money is in VWIAX (for spending today)...My long term money is in the equity Market (for future spending).

I disagree a bit with the above analysis. ISTM what we’re witnessing with the reputed demise of the 60/40 is more of an abnormality - a “transitory” condition (to borrow a phrase). But that’s only my best guess. Further, I’ll side with Twain on the question: “Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.”
This writer provides a lot of thoughtful analysis in the “free” version of his commentary, while hoping you’ll subscribe to the paid edition. I’m saddened to hear TR hasn’t performed well. Really enjoyed those things when I was about 5.
“The sad truth is that Tootsie Roll’s business hasn’t done very well in recent years. It’s been mostly flat. The company has issued 3% stock dividends each year for the last several years. (That’s effectively a 103-to-100 stock split.)”
I’m thinking demographics have a lot to do with the problem. I don’t see many of my acquaintances in the 75-90 year age group munching on tootsie rolls. In fact, if missing some teeth it seems to me they would be hard to chew. Might choke on one.

Lana'i is PRIVATELY owned by ..... Larry Ellison.
"As of 2012, the island was 98% owned by Larry Ellison, co-founder and chairman of Oracle Corporation; the remaining 2% is owned by the state of Hawaii or is privately owned homes. Lanai is a roughly apostrophe-shaped island with a width of 18 miles (29 km) in the longest direction."
Ni'ihau:
"Niihau is the only place left in the world where the predominant language is Hawaiian. About 250 natives live on the 73-square-mile island, most working on the Robinsons' cattle and sheep ranch. Guns, alcohol and cigarettes are forbidden. There is no doctor, no jail, no paved roads."
Kahoolawe:
"Why is no one allowed on Kahoolawe?
Access to the Reserve (the island and the 2 miles of ocean surrounding Kaho'olawe) is restricted because of the continued danger of unexploded ordnance. Access to the Reserve is permitted only with authorization of KIRC for specific purposes, such as restoration, education, and culture."
@Old_Joe: your suggestion is certainly conceivable. Maybe a nightmare to try to implement. There was a huge protest about erecting the new and improved telescope up on Mauna Kea, lasting YEARS. How many other "sacred" native Hawaiian locations might be invented, or uncovered?
I've not visited the other islands, but there's a big wind-farm on the way up to the North Shore of Oahu. And Oahu is about 600 square miles in size. That's about the same size as Zanzibar.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/where-will-the-bear-market-bottom-history-offers-a-very-clear-clue
You probably don't need me to tell you this, but 2022 has been one of the most challenging years on record for everyone from Wall Street professionals to everyday investors. The first half of the year saw the benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), which is the broadest barometer of stock-market health, produce its worst return in 52 years. The growth-dependent Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) fared even worse, with the index losing as much as a third of its value on a peak-to-trough basis.
Very thoughtful insights/discussion
Nobody really know for sure
Could be lots pain 3 5 monrhs

@Baseball_Fan
I may be suckling of the teet (sic) of the public tax payer with a pension, but hear this, joker: During my twenty years of public safety service I typically worked two to four hours of off-the-books UNPAID overtime each and every day. I appreciated my job, and felt it was no problem to give a little extra. The taxpayers got their money's worth and then some from me. Up yours, pal.

@Hank, so this is an extreme example of the absolute kookiness that has taken place over the past few years with the fed's balance sheet expanding by 10x over the past dozen or so years. Social media, media assisted in driving the sheeple to lose their money in this Schmuddel. I can see this fund getting cut in half once again from here. Who knows?
So ryhmed with the late 90's, no? Next generation of investors/sheeple done learnt their lesson, maybe?
So...question for the class...let's talke about GAAP accounting or maybe better said the lack of it pertaining to most/many tech companies.
Do they or do they not pay many of their assocatiates with stock...what about intangibles...is that on the balance sheet? What happens to their "earnings" if you put those "true" expenses back on there? Aren't some of those companies another farce similar to ARKK...Can some CPA/Finance expert explain Salesforce, CRM, the rollup of over 60 companies to me and what is really going on there. I have no idea but am wondering, asking for a friend? Compare it to MSFT who DOES report using GAAP, I beleive.
And now those of us who don't suckle of the teet of the public tax payer with a pension have to fund our retirement in this piece of sheet casino?
Baseball Fan

Global Bond Bear
The drawdown for the global bond index was recently at -20.4% for the first time in its history (1990- ). Based on the interest rate history over 5,000 years, this may be the first time ever for the global bond market. The US bond index (1976- ) had a record drawdown of -14.3% in mid-June, recent (only) -12.7%. Twitter LINK
None of this would make you feel better. But if you hold bonds in any form, including within allocation/balanced funds, you know that it has been painful. Of course, some category of bonds (HYs, EMs) and some types of bond funds (CEFs) have had even worse drawdowns.
Twitter Chart1, Global Bond Index https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FbpXRzBWAAE4PEb?format=png&name=medium
Twitter Chart2, US Bond Index https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FbpX43rWIAEYBSa?format=png&name=medium
Twitter Chart3, 5,000 Yr Rate History https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FbpYQ5dWYAUjXh9?format=jpg&name=medium

Not aimed at anyone. Just thinking a lot of folks appear never to have experienced a market correction of 10-15% or a bear market of 20-40% peak to trough in the major averages. Been at least a dozen in my lifetime. 07-09 was the worst. Some indexes and funds fell more than 50% over about a 2 year period. By contrast, the S&P was only down 17% YTD as of yesterday. Since ‘21 was a pretty good year, that 17% is probably not far from where the market topped out.
Doing nothing works if you have a long enough time horizon. Folks working and averaging in haven’t the time some of us do to fret. At 35 I could have cared less what the market did. Slowly raising one’s risk exposure over months or years as the fall continues should also work. One caveat: If one was greedy and running a high risk portfolio before the market fall commenced, there’s not a lot of room left to increase risk level further.
They say don’t invest money in the markets that you will need within 5 or 10 years (opinions on that differ). Mr. Geroux aims to break even within 3 years in his PRWCX - though there are no guarantees. We shall see.