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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Closed-end fund IRL
    YBB just turned me on to this link. And I just looked. IRL.
    Many years ago, pre-divorce, I was in this CEF and got out with a small profit. The discount is not as high as it might be, compared to the past year's average statistic, but the distribution rate is quite good. The Republic of Ireland remains in the EU. Cross-border crap with Northern Ireland is still being worked out, post-Brexit. I dunno if they'll ever find an answer to THAT one, apart from recognizing all the time and effort that's gone into regularizing relations between Stormont and Dublin. They both continue, of course, to use separate currencies.
    https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/IRL
  • Social Security Claiming Strategies - Claim Early & Invest
    For sure, msf is our main go-to guy. His contributions over the years have been enormous. My thanks also!
  • Social Security Claiming Strategies - Claim Early & Invest
    Thank you again. Similar forecast on future return have been posted but Schwab provided detail analysis that others lack. What can income investors do with negative returns in coming years?
    By the way, I congratulate you to find time to take more college class? Your knowledge on these financial matter really shows that contributed to the depth of discussion on this board. Thank you.
  • Roth IRA and Vanguard Brokerage
    Do you have to sell the Roth because your Vanguard holdings are unavailable at TRP?
    If so, you may want to consider exchanging your Vanguard holdings for ones which are available at TRP prior to the transfer.
    This should enable in-kind transfers of your Roth assets from Vanguard to TRP.
    With in-kind transfers, your Roth will not be "out of the market" which may or may not be beneficial.
    I transferred my Roth IRA from Fidelity to Vanguard a few years ago.
    Prior to the transfer, I exchanged my Fidelity holdings to enable in-kind transfers.
    This worked out well for me but "your mileage may vary" as some like to say.
  • Grantham’s at it again …
    "Our forecast is to have a negative return on US stocks over the next seven years. I strongly believe that will be accurate."
    GMO's largest equity fund, GQETX, and probably has more than 50% of all their equity AUM.
    https://www.gmo.com/globalassets/documents---manually-loaded/documents/fact-sheets/quality-fund
    https://www.gmo.com/americas/investment-capabilities/mutual-funds/
  • Social Security Claiming Strategies - Claim Early & Invest
    I took it early.
    My wife was lucky enough to get a job in her field in another city. But two of my three careers would not have easily translated to the environment in our new town. Not to mention that the job market was rougher then.
    I decided I would rather have the time to myself than work a crappy job that would pay me little more that my SS check, just because.
    My back isn't what it used to be. I get cluster headaches at certain times of some years. I wouldn't hire me.
    I'll be out in the garden. I think we had about twelve different species of butterflies this year. And then there are the native bees and wasps. I might start a photo log for next year.
    I guess you could say that there is something like a strategy. I take some of the dividends from some of the funds in my taxable account. And I leave my IRA account alone. Haven't had to worry about tapping my wife's accounts.
  • Grantham’s at it again …
    I think you guys understood when I said “I have followed Grantham's various public pronouncements about equity returns for the past 10 years,” I only meant I noted his pronouncements (and prepared a watch list to validate his pronouncements.) Luckily, I never invested in line with his pronouncements.
    Finally, I respect money managers’ skills, even those whose ways of marketing I do not agree with, Grantham included. One just hopes one never comes across a Madoff or his variants.
    Good luck to all of us in our effort to fine tune our BS radar.
    Wishing you all healthy investing!
  • Social Security Claiming Strategies - Claim Early & Invest
    I have seen several posters thru the years providing detailed spread sheets comparing taking at 62 and investing vs wait and collect the benefit at a later date. Most "take it now" analysis forgets to reduce the investment portfolio by the tax owed on the SS benefit since most retirees collect other sources of income. They also fail to factor in the tax owed from the SS income + cap gains from the investment each year. If one waits to receive benefits, the base benefit will increase risk free.... this year at a 8% + 5.9% COLA with zero taxes owed obviously. The higher the base, the higher the COLA increase for the rest of your life. Possibility exists for significant COLA next few years. The other side of the coin is longevity... which IMO trumps everything. Most of my good friends died suddenly.
  • Grantham’s at it again …
    I pity the poor soul who has followed Grantham’s advice over the past 10 years or so.
  • Grantham’s at it again …
    FWIW,
    I and everybody I personally know invest based on our view of the future - I.e., personal predictions - and within the limitations life imposes on us. Agree that prediction in this context is not the same as certainty of outcome.
    I have followed Grantham's various public pronouncements about equity returns for the past 10 years. A few years after one such pronouncements, his firm's then deputy CIO (Ben Inker?) was asked in a Morningstar interview why their funds did not reflect those pronouncements and he came clean saying that they never got around to investing in line with those pronouncements. Lucky for their fund shareholders.
    The linked article in the OP includes the following: "Our forecast is to have a negative return on US stocks over the next seven years. I strongly believe that will be accurate." [Bold added] He may turn out to be correct about negative returns for SPY or VTI from now until October 2028 (7 years?) but not IMO because of currently known facts. I am invested in SPY and am not reducing it based on the quoted statements but I will understand if somebody at MFO wants to reduce or even liquidate their SPY or other US equity holdings based on those statements.
    Nobody should take the above personally. No offense is intended.
  • Grantham’s at it again …
    @sma3 - Thanks for posting the Bloomberg interview. Had forgotten I’d viewed it recently.
    Yeah - Hussman’s a perma-bear. Somehow think Grantham’s a little sharper. GMO must have some good supporting talent & research capability. A bit more here than just some old man crying wolf. Hope he’s wrong. I’d like everybody to be rich, and making money has been easy for many years now.
    March 2009 is when things started to move. Dow has climbed from around 6,000 than to over 36,000 of recent. Just 2 or 3 brief hiccups along the way. The thing some of us who survived ‘07-‘09 might think about is whether at 15 years additional age we’d be willing / able to ride out a storm like that again - possibly something worse. Not a prediction. Just something I thought might add some balance to the general euphorism here.
    @Old_Joe / A nickel for your subscription is in the mail. Am confident I’ll get my money’s worth.
  • Grantham’s at it again …
    Grantham reminds me of Marc Faber of the 'Gloom Boom and Doom Report' ... pithy, witty, educated, and great for media hits --- but wrong for a lot longer than you can profit from their advice.
    Sadly when the Bear strikes, everyone goes 'oh, they were right!' while forgetting they were early/wrong for many many years.
  • Grantham’s at it again …
    I didn't see in the article what inflation factor is used in these predictions. Did I miss it?
    Grantham has been doing this so long there are now reality checks for those predictions. I found this one from 2018 where on Dec. 31, 2010 this 7 year prediction was made. Below, prediction and actual 7 years later.
    2010 prediction... 2018 actual
    US LC predicted +0.4%... actual was +12%
    US SC predicted -1.9%... actual was +10%
    Int LC predicted +2.1%... actual was +5%
    Int SC predicted -1.4%... actual was +4%
    EM predicted 4.1%... actual was 0%
    https://www.mymoneyblog.com/gmo-asset-return-forecasts-vs-actual-returns-2011-2018.html
    Not sure what to make of it but this obviously smart man has had trouble with his predictions in the past. Why adjust based on future predictions? Yeah, we may be in a value bubble and a bear market is always on the horizon somewhere down the road, but sounds like his algorithms were saying the same thing in 2010. Remember, his predications have to not only predict the global equity markets, but also the rate of inflation. Impossible task maybe? But A+ for the effort.
  • SS increase: what to do
    We got our boosters at our local CVS. They schedule appts 15 minutes apart and their process went flawlessly for us who happened to get ours on two different days, so we saw it happen twice there. That said, the pharmacist who we've known for years did express a lot of angst though over how taxing the process is on their staffing.
  • 10 Mistakes...
    13 years is long enough to make a few investors rich along the way. Who are the current Peter Lynches in their 3rd or 4th innings?
  • Grantham’s at it again …
    I guess he’s been spilling his guts on CNBC. But CNBC has become impossible to link or view without a paid subscription. (Interview referenced was in late September)
    Here’s a decent article summarizing Grantham’s comments.
    Here’s a 10-minute discussion / analysis based on a few clips from the CNBC interview. The presenter is decent - but clearly promoting his internet based investor service,.

    My advice would be to exercise due diligence and look at your holdings one by one. I’m mostly a bottom feeder, so tend to own things that are pretty beaten up and out of favor. The biggest exception I could find is my commodities fund, BRCAX, up 32% for one year. However, looking back 5 and 10 years the fund has only garnered single digit returns. And, as @BenWP will testify, my single largest holding, TMSRX, appears to be anything but a euphoric bubble. :)
    Bonds are a bit troubling. Not sure what kind of duration my allocation funds have, but my direct bond fund holdings are intermediate term (generally 2-5 years). My issue here with Grantham (and other experts) is that I think if equities hit the bricks, the economy will grind to a near halt and intermediate / long bonds will rise in value - albeit for a brief period. But - might be wrong.
    However, I agree with most of what Grantham says and respect his knowledge. For defense, I’ve been looking at various defensive funds. None is a “panacea”. All are problematic in some way - - perhaps the reason he stresses cash for defense.
  • Fidelity's Joel Tillinghast to retire from active management in 2023
    @stillers - it auto defaults to 1985 but the results themselves are constrained by the earliest fund in the comparison. Because I chose SPY vs. Vanguard 500 Index, it started from 1994 vs. 1990 if I had chosen Vanguard. Nevertheless (as opposed to nonetheless)- the results are just impressive all the same. The graphs look a bit different on PV vs. Stock Charts but the results are the same. FWIW I own 2 of the 3 funds mentioned and couldn't be happier. Let's hope the good times continue to roll. Cheers.
    Edit Add: May nothing ever change with FDGRX. Has been just stellar for me for many years.
  • 10 Mistakes...
    That footage is from awhile back. Today Peter Lynch is 77 years old. My father invested with him and Magellan used to carry 3% front load. Time has changed for sure.
  • T. Rowe Price Summit Program
    @Roy, you brought up excellent point. We consolidated our brokerage and mutual accounts a number years ago for ease of tracking to two large brokerages. So we have to reconsider this announcement from TRP since we already invested in a number of their excellent funds. The ability to invest in their institutional shares at $50K is quite tempting, plus other offering. At Vanguard, one can purchase Pimco institutional shares at $25K instead of $1M (thanks to @msf). At present, we are evaluating the pros and cons of each brokerages and which one would fit our long term needs. My experience of transfer process with TRP was slow, but that was over 5 years ago.
    With regards to Grandeur Peak funds, you can purchase their institutional shares at much lower minimum at many brokerages with a transaction fee. The $ minimum is set at the agreement between Grandeur Peak and that specific brokerages. Since Grandeur Peak funds invest in small to mid cap space, it poses challenges to existing investors when the funds closed, where one cannot purchase additional shares from their brokerages. One can transfer their shares to Grandeur Peak but that is not something I wish to do in the long run.
    Also, I am trying to
    look at what is under the hood of TRP brokerage but am having issue finding it for comparing to brokerages I am currently using. No luck by calling their customer service.
  • World Stock Funds-Are they a viable alternative?
    +1 Yes-you could have done a lot worse than paying the 3 and 5% load on FCNTX and SGENX in the early 1990's and staying in those fund sthe last 30 years !