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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Portfolio Allocation Ideas & Strategies
    If you go to Fidelity’s generic page and search first for an OEF, it will then allow you to run comparisons with both OEFs and ETFs. (See “compare” in the upper left page corner). You don’t need to be logged in. Nice, since I prefer to login only when transacting business. But you need to enter the OEF first. You can compare the performance of up to 5 funds over periods ranging from YTD out to 10 years. I use it a lot to compare how different funds held up during the late March / early April market upheaval.
    (What you see is a linear graph showing how a hypothetical $10,000 investment fared over the time period chosen.)
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Sold GDL today. I’m concerned that in the stampede to own gold, some investors have been inadvertently buying / bidding-up this previously tame CEF. GDL is an M&A arbitrage fund designed to outperform cash by a percent or two over longer periods. Over 10 years it’s produced 3% annually - similar to the return on cash over that time. Suddenly it’s up more than 12% over the past year and near 10% YTD. Makes no sense. The symbol for a gold miners fund is GDX. The symbol for a gold bullion fund is GLD
    Folks … please double-check your ticker symbol before hitting “BUY”.
    Study: The study found that even sophisticated investors can get confused. Mutual funds and hedge funds were found to also make mistaken investments based on similar company names.”
    Massively Confused Investors: ” …in modern behavioral finance, it is believed that irrational behaviors of investors cause the comovements of related stocks. For example, Rashes found a highly abnormal positive correlation between two companies with similar names but nothing else in common, caused by the irrational feelings of investors”
    We conduct a search for pairs of companies with similar names/ticker symbols.: “ Between 12% and 25% of such pairs exhibit co-movements in trading turnover, which we attribute to investor confusion ”
    Costly Mistakes
    Clarification note: GDL had been a major portfolio component this year until 8/7 when I sold all. Purchased a lesser amount and added it to my ”hedge basket” shortly after that.
  • Portfolio Allocation Ideas & Strategies
    I wish Fidelity's mutual fund screener included Sharpe/Sortino ratios for 5 and 10 years.
    Agreed. But thankfully we have sites like Portfolio Visualizer.
  • Portfolio Allocation Ideas & Strategies
    I wish Fidelity's mutual fund screener included Sharpe/Sortino ratios for 5 and 10 years.
  • US Appeals Court says tariffs are illegal.
    Not with this guy and the evil he inflicts. I’ll gladly and publicly acknowledge that I strongly wish for his death sooner than later. Where are you with abducting people on the street and no due process and flown to foreign concentration camps? Where are you with illegal redistricting? Illegal tariffs? And all of the other crucially important illegal actions?
    You seem a reasonable guy sometimes, so you must know that the courts rule against him regularly, almost every other day in fact.
    So typical, immature, dangerous, and can't accept the election results.
    Get used to this 3+ years to do.
  • Wellington is coming out of the shadows
    Per BBG:

    Wellington Management Co. is a rarity in the investment world: a fund manager with more than $1 trillion of assets and almost zero brand recognition.
    Not for long.
    The staid, nearly century-old firm that mostly serves vanilla equity and bond strategies to buttoned-up institutions like pensions and endowments is now moving aggressively into private markets and hedge funds. Wellington is spending big to hire from bulge-bracket banks and alternative investment firms, adding dozens of private markets professionals to build a unit of about 40 people.
    It’s also hustling to build a brand with retail investors, many of whom have never heard of the $1.3 trillion firm. It’s a big change for a money manager that for decades didn’t care about what the world thought, as long as its big institutional clients were happy.
    Among its recent hires, Wellington recruited a head of private investments capital formation from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., poached a team from Pacific Investment Management Co. to expand in private credit and hired Christina Kopec Rooney from Goldman’s asset management arm to head its nascent push into the US wealth market. It even partnered with private equity giant Blackstone Inc. and Vanguard Group to launch hybrid funds for retail investors.
    In perhaps its most radical shift, Wellington – housed across 19 floors in Boston’s Atlantic Wharf – has done the previously unthinkable: It hired a public relations team.

    < - >
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-05/wellington-management-seeks-the-spotlight-after-100-years-of-shunning-it?srnd=homepage-americas
    ... take that as you will. For me, I prefer investment managers that tend to stay in the background. My go-to is Capital Group (where I'm deeply invested across accounts) but in terms of quiet, steady-eddie operations Wellington, D&C, etc are right up there as well.
  • Portfolio Allocation Ideas & Strategies
    crash: when you remove money from your t-ira, how do you calculate the amount to remove such that you don't land yourself in a new worse tax bracket given that your totals for the year aren't known until year's end, if that makes any sense? thanks!
    Not crash (re: roth conversions/income): I use last years tax calculator online and also last years tax return. If they tell me I can convert 50K stay in certain tax bracket and owe $x, I'll convert 40k in January. Then around Nov when the real next years tax calculators are available I'll fine tune the final conversion/withdrawal. On final withdrawal withhold $fed, $state, and whatever is left is for me.
  • markets are always right...
    Thank you, Mr. Hindsight.
    Where is the hindsight?
    The above phrase is from another poster on another site that has been wrong for about 15 years now. When he posted about his timing, it was a disaster.
    I sold on 2/29/2020 and posted about it on several sites, including this one.
    I sold early in 2022, and bought in 11/2022 and posted about it. This is why I made 9+% in 2022.
    There is plenty of evidence of my portfolio performance.
    Several in my circle of traders all have done it.
    It's obvious you can't do it, so your only response is trashing.
    People like you are responsible for why I (and other great traders) don't post these anymore.
    It doesn't bother or affect us, but posters have been interested for years. Actually, 1 of them joined our group after he paid attention for years and started using it.
    Basically, you score a giggle, but others lose.
  • Changes to two Doubleline Funds
    Regarding the infrastructure fund, this could be reflective of infrastructure moving into another phase. With all the political noise (e.g. FEMA not funding disaster reconstruction, alternative energy projects cancelled, bridge construction threatened), I haven't taken much of a look at the bigger picture.
    Infrastructure burst onto the investment scene about 15-20 years ago. In the US and elsewhere, post WW2 and older infrastructure was decaying. (It still is.) There was an expectation that lots of money would be poured into pouring concrete. Things change and this fund could just be changing along with that.
    30 years or so ago, my father owned shares of the Energy Fund. Energy used to be a heavily regulated industry and companies provided reliable income and limited growth. With deregulation, energy no longer fit that description. The fund gradually deemphasized energy, becoming Selected Sectors, and then Focus Fund. It evolved into a broad based large cap fund, and today is classified as a global large cap fund. Industries change.
    Likewise, this DoubleLine fund is gradually deemphasizing infrastructure, reducing that sector from 80% to 50% of its holdings.
    Like DoubleLine Floating Rate fund, this infrastructure fund will be "adopted" by American Beacon.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/64517/doubleline-floating-rate-fund-to-be-reorganized
    Side note: N&B funds, including Focus Fund, are in the process of doing a reverse split for an unusual reason. The original (investor) shares are not being split (or reverse split), but other share class shares are, in order to bring their prices closer together. Minor changes, something like 1: 0.95 (reverse split) or 1:1.01 (split).
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/44402/000089843225000623/form497.htm
  • Portfolio Allocation Ideas & Strategies
    I've not kept my circumstances a secret. Doing a lot of investing for heirs, colored by a simultaneous streak of concern for preservation. The political scene these days is a dysfunctional and abominable cluster-flop. I'm about 53 stocks and 46 bonds, and just a percent or so in cash. 40% of total is in PRWCX, so that's a giant step toward good sleeping at night.
    28% of my 46% in bonds is Junk. Deliberately wanting the yield. 18% of total is in 3 single-stocks. Quite happy with them, so far. Dividend payers. A few years before RMDs are due, I'm already taking a few or several thousand each January from the T-IRA, reducing, ostensibly, the size of the RMDs when it comes time for that.
    I used to always be trying to diversify for its own sake, but more recently have taken the advice of the late Charlie Munger. "Don't be doing that for its own sake." Heaviest in Info Tech, not because I like those Big Name slimeballs, but because my mutual funds are there. A close 2nd-place is Financials, lagging by just 1%, 26 to 25. Only 4.35% of stocks is in International.
    The Market ignores politics and ethics (or lack thereof) until it just won't, anymore.
  • “The one-fund Portfolio as a default suggestion”
    Asked Bing AI for top 5 picks
    Ticker Fund Name 5 Yr 10 Yr 15 Yr 20 Yr
    FCNTX Fidelity Contrafund 14.6% 15.8% 13.2% 9.1%
    FBGRX Fidelity Blue Chip Growth Fund 17.8% 18.0% 14.9% 10.7%
    PRPFX Permanent Portfolio Fund 4.3% 5.9% 6.6% 5.3%
    AGTHX American Funds Growth Fund of America 13.5% 14.7% 11.9% 8.9%
    TRBCX T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Fund 18.3% 16.1% 12.3% 10.5%
    VFINX Vanguard 500 Index Fund 13.0% 13.7% 10.2% 7.8%
    sometimes you have to be super detailed to have AI actually do the research you want it to. Will Danoff is almost 70. He largely manages Contrafund himself. Im not sure i'm all in on that bet for the next 20 years. If you followup and say given the age of the managers, are you sure? It will usually go "GREAT POINT IN LIGHT OF THAT HERE IS A NEW LIST" and you are like well why didn't you consider that in the first place!
    FBGRX is impressive but they cast off the diversified label so they could be 15% NVDIA (paid off so far).
  • Commodities
    Howdy folks,
    I think you were trolling me with this thread.
    I have been recommending a 3-7% stake in precious metals in everyone's portfolios for decades. More than that is speculation, which is fine, but it can be very dicey. The game is so very rigged, it's tough to win.
    There are many ways to take position. Safest is physical bullion. Geez, a roll of American Gold Eagles is the size of quarter and 2" tall. Hide it in the Oatmeal. It's worth about $75K. Get a 100 oz bar of silver, paint it black and use it as a door stop. About $4500. You can buy ETFs that invest in bullion but you pay 28% in gains. Ouch. You can hedge this with some weird products or simply stash them in a deferred or exempt account. You can buy the mining stocks. My only homerun was in the Big Bonanza that took place in in 2002-2011 period. I bought Silver Wheaton in the $2-3 range and it went to $43. There is nothing quite so exhilarating as playing the penny silver miners. Pure nose bleed.
    You don't even have to simply play the PMs and can take a broad based stance in commodities with any number of funds and/or ETF. Again, determine if they're in mining stocks or the actual commodities. Even though they more or less mirror each others performance, they are played in different markets that act different ways. I've been collecting coins for 70 years and I don't have a clue.
    If you're thinking about establishing a new position in the metals, I'd really suggest a Dollar Cost Averaging tactic. If you're a momentum investor, you might consider scaling in.
    Peace,
    And so it goes,
    rono
  • markets are always right...
    OJ, not to worry, there have been many naysayers in the last 15 years.
    In this (link) you can find several trades I made in crucial markets.
    In fact, I posted my sale on 2/29/2020 on this site.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/55299/bond-mutual-funds-analysis-act-2/p2
    LarryB, My trades were never perfect; I never claimed they were. When I'm wrong, I'm out of the market for up to a week. When I'm right, I was out for several weeks (in 2018, 2020, 2025) to 10 months in 2022. I can't do it with a lot of money, think above 10-20 million; after all, I trade in/out mutual funds. There were already times when the mutual company restricted me from trading their funds too often.
    I don't need to prove anything anymore. All the real discussions happen now off the boards.
    This is a screenshot in early 2020 (https://ibb.co/k2SKDPPg)
    This is a screenshot of 2022 (https://ibb.co/1tKzDR4j)
  • “The one-fund Portfolio as a default suggestion”
    If you have the same after-tax starting value at $78K, then a percentage-based tax is a linear operator. It doesn't matter if you double the money first and then apply the tax, or apply the tax and then double the money.
    Correct. This addresses the question: is one better off contributing now to a Roth or to a traditional IRA? In that situation what matters is whether the future tax rate will be higher, lower, or equal to the current tax rate.
    I was addressing a slightly different question: does allocation between tax free and tax deferred accounts matter? For that question, it doesn't matter what tax rates you might have been subject to in contributing to the Roth. You've already made your bed. Now you have to lie in it and allocate investments across whatever dollars you've put into the different accounts, traditional and Roth.
    You are suggesting that rapid growth of tax-deferred moneys will move some of those assets into a higher future tax bracket vs. the future tax bracket all of those dollars would have been with slower growth. Perhaps. Bear in mind that tax brackets are adjusted for inflation, so the growth rate of import is the excess growth over inflation, not total growth. Still, one hopes with more aggressive investments, that this will be significant.
    When one speaks of being in a higher bracket at retirement, one is looking at the size of RMDs. The first dollar gets taxed at one rate determined by considering all other ordinary income and then looking at the marginal rate. Subsequent RMD dollars get taxed at that rate or a higher rate if the RMD extends through brackets. Hence my assumption that the total RMD is taxed at the same marginal rate in retirement.
    That's not always true, as you say (below). Often it is. Consider an individual, age 73, in the 22% bracket excluding RMDs. If that individual falls at the top of the bracket, virtually all RMD dollars will be taxed at 24%, whether from fast or slow growing investments. If that individual falls at the bottom of the bracket, they'll have nearly $55K of "space" to fill. They'd need a T-IRA of almost $1.5M for the RMD to exceed that (age divisor is 26.5). Put them at the midway point and the T-IRA would need to be around $750K before the tax brackets mattered.
    The 24% bracket is even wider. The bracket where RMD size is most likely to matter is the 12% bracket. That's only $36K wide. If one is at the midpoint in that bracket, then a $500K T-IRA will have an RMD touching the next bracket. And since that next bracket at 22% is a whopping 10% higher, it becomes more important here to try to keep every last RMD dollar out of that bracket.
    So it really depends on the situation. Personally, the part of the RMD trap that I'm more concerned about is having RMDs greater than needed for expenses. This is where Roth conversions years before retirement help. And for this purpose, it is better to keep slower growing assets in T-IRAs.
    This equivalence only holds true if you assume the tax rate at withdrawal remains constant. In the real world, if doubling your traditional account pushed you into a higher tax bracket in retirement, the "Traditional Doubles" scenario would result in a lower after-tax total.
    A place where slower growing assets can be even more beneficial is in HSAs. Suppose someone has been healthy (so has had few medical expenses during accumulation phase) and has a sizeable HSA. Then it is possible even in retirement that total medical expenses will not exceed the HSA value. If that happens, the excess dollars rather than being tax-free can get taxed as ordinary income upon withdrawal.
    Not sure why you picked a scenario with both traditional and Roth at same $78K, who actually has that ratio?
    The ratios don't matter. I just wanted to provide a concrete example. 100/0 or 0/100 wouldn't work when the question was how to allocate between non-zero T-IRA and Roth accounts. 50/50 is a simple split and it facilitated assuming 50% of the money was invested one way and 50% another.
    Had I used a 20/80 split between accounts with the same investment assumption (half fast growth, half no growth), then the 20% account would have been invested one way along with 3/8 of the 80% account. The remaining 5/8 of the 80% account (i.e. half the total assets) would have been invested the other way. Same result, but I'd lose people with all the fractions and percentage.
  • “The one-fund Portfolio as a default suggestion”
    Answers from AI just depend on which websites they choose to scrape. Perhaps their mood has something to do with it. I got different answers than @equalizer did.
    I asked Bing for "5 picks for Roth for next 20 years" and got SPTM, VPMCX, JEPI, RQI, and IBIT.
    Google Gemini was coy until I asked for "5 fund picks for Roth for next 20 years." It came up with VTI, VXUS, VUG, FSELX, and SCHD.
    Gemini won't tell you which web sites it scrapes for its wisdom. But if you ask the AI available at google search, it will. You can find them to the right. It also gave me a slightly different answer: VTI, VXUS, BND, VNQ, and any target date fund at 2045 or 2050.
    I basically got the same sort of diversified lineup from Perplexity: FXAIX, VTIAX, VSMAX, VNQ, and VWELX. Perplexity will clearly tell you what it scraped.
    But this doesn't get us to the point of the thread. So I asked a new question: "Name five fund options for a roth account if you could only pick one for the next twenty years."
    Bing suggested: VWELX, SPTM, JEPI, VPMCX, or RQI. It suggested: "Each of these funds could be your 'forever' pick depending on your risk tolerance and retirement goals. Want help narrowing it down based on your age or investing style?" I think it's not scraping as hard as it could.
    Gemini grokked the question a little better than Bing, and came back with: VT, Fidelity Freedom Index Fund 2045 (no ticker), VTI, FZROX, or SCHD.
    Google search AI came back with VOO, VTI, VFORX, VBIAX, or VIG.
    Perplexity came back with: VTSAX, FXAIX, Vanguard Target Retirement 2065, VT or VIG.
    I decided to get pushier. So I asked: "If you could pick only one fund for a roth for the next twenty years what should it be?"
    Bing chose VWELX, Gemini chose VT, Google search ducked with "a target-date fund or a low-cost, total-market index fund," and Perplexity came back with VOO or FXAIX before reminding me about the other usual suspects.
    These are no where close to what @equalizer was getting; so I asked one more question: "Give me five non-index funds for a roth for the next twenty years."
    Bing: VWELX, VPMCX, JEPI, RQI, and SVOL. Gemini: FCNTX, FBGRX, FSELX, TRBCX, and AGTHX. Googel search: FCNTX, PRDGX, VPMCX, JEPI, and AVGV. Perplexity: VWELX, VWINX, JEPI, USMC, and FCNTX.
    Well. At least the conventional wisdom is available without spending money for advice or doing your own homework.
  • “The one-fund Portfolio as a default suggestion”
    I asked Gemini for 5 picks for Roth for next 20 years and got this
    This table shows the average annual return for each fund over various time periods.
    | Mutual Fund (Ticker) | 5-Year Return | 10-Year Return | 15-Year Return | 20-Year Return |
    |---|---|---|---|---|
    | Fidelity Contrafund (FCNTX) | 13.1% | 14.5% | 13.8% | 11.9% |
    | T. Rowe Price Global Tech (PRGTX) | 15.2% | 17.8% | 16.5% | 14.3% |
    | Baron Asset Fund (BARAX) | 11.9% | 13.2% | 12.9% | 11.5% |
    | Harding Loevner Intl Equity (HLMNX) | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.2% |
    | T. Rowe Price Health Sci (PRHSX) | 9.5% | 12.4% | 14.1% | 13.6% |
  • U.S. Government Involvement In Private Business
    Mainly Xubuntu or whatever the Mint Xfce distro is called.
    In years past I tried Redhat and SUSE, then Ubuntu. There are probably some others in there I can't remember. I never cared for GNU as a desktop. I started on KDE, but as the years went by the simplicity of Xfce won out.
    My last job included teaching volunteers how to refurbish used computers and install linux. Xubuntu was just the easiest to work with.
    I was never a power user. I got enough of command lines with DOS. And I never had the hand-eye coordination for coding/scripting/programming--or is it apping these days? There is always some dang thang out of place or mising, if you know what I meen. :-}
    I still run Windows on the desktop. I have learned how to run a linux VM on it for some hobby work I do. Lots of command-line fun and simple .yaml files to screw up there.
  • Commodities
    The commodity space is complex and the asset class can be volatile.
    Everything from coca beans to nat gas. Generally played using derivatives. Tremendous variation among funds.
    Flashback - In March 2020, the price of a barrel of oil temporarily fell below zero dollars.
    @LewisBraham authored the piece I linked. Thanks for the reminder.
    @Observant1 - PIRMX looks like a good moderate approach. I find that with high-volatility funds it’s hard to hang on for long. So better served with a moderate approach from that standpoint.
  • Morningstar, 10:00 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday: Portf. Mgr. refuses to display on-screen.
    My consolidated portfolio tracking data at Yahoo Finance remains buggered up as I write. It's been more than 72 hours since most of the data was lost by Yahoo and has yet to be restored. I'd be very leary of having my brokerage portfolio linked to their portfolio tracking. The data that was lost was the accumulation of many years of input. You would expect better than this for a tracking and analysis service. Good bye Yahoo.
  • A settlement that actually paid out
    Nice! I was subject of a data breach at a major US pharmacy chain a few years ago and was blackmailed with that data by the thieves (or their customers/underlings). All I got in return was a long and deeply felt letter of apology from the corporate office...