So far this year, interest rates have been the driver of asset prices - a la the discount rate. (On the way up for the past 13 years we did not acknowledge this relationship and thought it is all our individual prowess.) BBB bonds at 5.7% and S&P 500 at 3,700 indicates both credit and equities are yet to price in all the rise in interest rates - risk assets still refusing to acknowledge the full weight of the interest rates. So, first we may have a mini restoration of historic correlations to fully reprice risk assets vs interest rates. If and when we start to feel the weight of negative economic conditions, then the historic relationships / correlations will return for us to see more clearly. More often than not, many of us are not wrong, we are probably just early - markets are not as efficient as we think. Part of my new practice has been to try to wait a few days / weeks so as to sync with the market.

Thanks for those references @hank. To respond to your concluding question: wouldn't it depend a lot on which SECTOR we're talking about?
Example: I bought the Postal REIT (PSTL) just weeks ago. Along with EVERYTHING else, it got beat up more recently. REITs are supposedly poison at this moment. But I'm holding it, with a view toward a few years out from now. Maybe add to it. But waiting till rate hikes stop, I suppose. If the market gets me back to even-steven in the current environment with PSTL, I can't bitch. Let it sit. See if my invested money might produce over time. Isn't that what it's all about, anyhoo? And it also seems to me that a REIT which invests in postal properties is unique. Which is why I chose it in the first place.
Ya gotta remember why you threw money at any company. but if there's a serious sea change, then a thorough reevaluation is in order.

I am surprised the market is not down more, but I think that has to do with earnings only just now starting to drop. A lot of this may be due to the strong job market ( with millions of people still not wanting to work because of covid, disability etc) and the overhang of the large stimulus checks sent out in 2020 and 2021.
I worry that the inflation we are seeing is mainly due to drought, supple chain disruptions and the War, none of which will respond to the Fed, until unemployment hits 5 or 6% or more and we are in a severe recession with crash in earnings.
While the financial system is in much better shape to withstand this than in 2007 back then there was a Fed available solution as they guaranteed everybody except Lehman, and we started out of it relatively quickly ( after dropping 45%)
Maybe if there had not been that third of fourth stimulus pumped into the economy or if they had started raising rates earlier inflation would have started down now, reassuring everybody.
If you believe all of the above, long term treasuries or very highly rated corporate bonds are the place to be, I think.
I think you have to be worried that it will take five years for stocks to recover.

@johnN

Friend say 10 trading days from now look very bad but 10 yrs from appears extremely rosy

That's one helluva forecast.
What's he/she smok'in these days???
I can't back any of that forecast, because when I bought my magic 8 ball years ago, it had only a 30 year forecast calendar; and that ran out of time last week. I'm screwed, investing wise/related.
ADD: that doesn't read properly.......screwed meaning; only relative to using an 8 ball for investing.

@hank,
I wouldn't say my judgement was better...
Our opinions regarding these two guests just differed.
The segment with Steve Rattner, chairman and CEO of Willett Advisors, was also interesting.
He believes that the biggest investment risk is rising interest rates.
Mr. Rattner thinks we will have a recession but doesn't know how much of this is priced in the markets.
Willett Advisors' current equity allocation is the lowest ever in the firm's 12 or 13 years of existence.
He was somewhat more constructive on commodities and energy but remains cautious overall.

Interesting article near the end of Barron’s print edition (September 26, 2022) credited to Rick Lear of Lear Investment Management.
Caption - “What Investors Got Wrong About Risk”
Basic premise seems to be that fixed income, particularly bonds is, and never was, a proper method for managing / quantifying risk in a portfolio.
Excerpt:
“Risk is one of the most widely discussed topics in the business. It is also one of the most misunderstood. The investment industry relies heavily on a statistical tool called standard deviation to gauge risk. In technical terms, standard deviation calculates the dispersion of a data set, relative to its mean. In other words, the more varied an investment strategy's returns are, relative to its average return, the riskier that strategy is thought to be. Strategies with low standard deviation, where returns are tightly bunched up near their historic average, are considered more predictable and therefore less risky. This view of risk emboldened investors to rebalance into bonds at a time of growing market turmoil, as the broad fixed-income market's standard deviation, over the past three years, has been around a fifth that of stocks, implying that bonds are expected to lose less than stocks in a down year.”
-
Not well versed in modern “standard deviation” methodology - which Lear critiques. However, he suggests that rather than mitigating risk with bond exposure one needs to be selective in holding particular assets that have offsetting risk characteristics. Humm … For most of the twenty-five years I’ve followed markets bonds have indeed been good volatility hedges. I suppose we might conclude from our recent 2022 experience to date that this time “things really are different.”
Check-out the year to date performance of your favorite conservative allocation fund. VWINX (albeit more of an income fund) is the best of the lot IMHO. Off more than 13% year-to-date by Fido’s accounting - worse than some equity funds. But still it’s held up better than TRP’s “Retirement Balanced Fund” TRRIX by a percent or two. In its early days TRRIX was labeled “Retirement Income Fund.” Fortunate, perhaps, that Price elected to rename it more than a decade ago.
(Sorry - Not able to provide links to the Barron’s print edition I draw from.)

What’s either encouraging - or scary - depending how you view it, is that virtually every asset class is in free fall. Oil’s in the 80s, down from north of $100. Gold’s under $1700, which is about as low as it’s been in 3 or 4 years. Bonds of course stink, unless you go very short term where rates have risen. Stocks of every stripe falling. When a fund like VWINX drops nearly a percent in a single day you know you’ve got problems. No secret why this is happening. Interest rates have soared. I suspect market forces in the face of 8% inflation are more responsible for the rate increases than the Fed’s words or actions. They take the credit. Market forces force their hand.
I’m not optimistic. However, I’d rather go down owning equities than churning out a few % in short term bonds. And there’s always the chance I’m overly pessimistic and at least some risk asset classes (gold, nat. resources, foreign stocks, etc.) will stage a rally. Wouldn’t take a lot to tilt the table in a diversified investor’s favor. A real interesting fund ro watch is AOK. Been beaten silly this year. It will rise again from the dead. But, when?

I chose to consolidate my holdings at a brokerage (Fidelity) for simplicity. I'm 80 and when I go, I'd rather not leave a mix of financial institutions for my executor to deal with.
(Not that I want this to happen soon!!)
My Dad passed away six years ago and I was the executor. Most of his investments consisted of stocks in a couple of TD Ameritrade accounts. But there were a few smaller bits. Each place he used was another place to figure out and contact, provide death certificates and instructions, etc. And always by mail.
I don't want to leave that mess behind.
My wife and I do have several accounts at Fidelity: Individual, joint, my IRA, several Roth IRAs. Most each contains a mix of mutual funds, ETFs and individual stocks. But they are all under one roof.
As msf noted, Janus has D shares only available directly with them. When I consolidated at Fidelity, the Fidelity folks handled the transfer from Janus. We wound up with a different class of shares (and probably a slightly higher expense ratio).
The CSRs at Fidelity are uniformly knowledgeable and helpful. For instance, when interest rates started going up in the Spring, I decided I'd better pay closer to attention to the Core account/MMF in each of our accounts. The random CSR I reached on the phone explained quickly and simply the differences and restrictions between FZDXX and SPAXX.
There are no fees to maintain these accounts.
I had never thought about the possibility that a big operation like Fidelity might have better security than a smaller investment house, but as Lewis Braham says, it seems likely. I access our accounts from my desktop computer at home (an iMac); when I am logging on, they must text a code to my cellphone which I enter. This process works very quickly and smoothly (and it makes me feel much more secure).
I tried using a Fidelity app on my iPhone, but I had to log on to the Internet though my browser anyhow, so I took off the app. Every once in a while I log on to check something, but not to do anything.
Anyhow, I'm very satisfied with Fidelity (and think my heirs will be also).
David

I've done that and then transferred the shares to a brokerage for convenience. I have seen soft closes where the fund says that shares purchased directly in a new account cannot be transferred for some period of time. But even then, the time limit does expire.
OTOH, Janus makes its cheaper D shares available only through direct investment. That's a little different from the situation described above. The shares weren't closed at intermediaries - they were never offered through those channels.

Only Class D Shares (the “Shares”) are offered by this Prospectus. The Shares are offered directly through the Janus Henderson funds to eligible investors by calling 1-800-525-3713 or at janushenderson.com/individual. The Shares are not offered through financial intermediaries.

Janus Value Funds Prospectus
For several years, Janus only allowed legacy investors - those who already had a direct account with Janus - to invest in class D shares. A couple of years ago it reopened direct investing to new customers. An interesting example of a fund family where you might want to invest directly (for lower cost) but couldn't.
https://ir.janushenderson.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2020/Janus-Henderson-Investors-to-Reopen-U.S.-Direct-Business-Channel-to-New-Investors/default.aspx

I can only think of a handful of funds perhaps worth buying directly, and even those I question if it's worth the trouble and the security risks. If you consider how much wealth the largest tech companies have, you have to imagine that they are the biggest draw for the best IT and tech security employees in the world. Where does that leave the small boutique fund family? I imagine some outsource the security of their accounts, but it's often an unknown. I have met or heard of accounts of IT folks at small businesses in recent years. I have been less than impressed. Is that guy who has trouble getting your printer to work also the one now supposed to protect your info? Perhaps I'm being overly paranoid. Then again there are certain large financial firms that have had tech problems lately, too. Meh.

Most of my holdings are with the fund families/transfer agent. For example, a newly opened/closed fund may be restricted with a brokerage, but not with the family that opened/closed the fund.

Yes, that's another good reason. Over the years I was able to buy shares directly in several funds under exactly those circumstances.

FWIW Have been investing with VG for 37 years and only have had a few minor issues/misunderstandings about what I needed. In fact, a few months ago they listed a fund family I argued for, and I have now owned one of their products, which I'll profile this fall.

Thanks FD. Yes $2500 min at Fido. And one more “fund performance site” to add to my collection and further mess with my brain.

I decided years ago to stop using ALT funds. They are not reliable and inconsistent. I developed my own timing system(link) that worked very well for me. I started practicing it in 2013.

Good idea. 26 weeks treasury is in the sweet spot near 4%, whereas the yields flattens out quickly beyond 2 years. Also the auction is taken place weekly on Monday at brokerages or directly at TreasuryDirect.
After September rate hike, treasury yields will go up again. Think treasury yield at 5% or more by year end is not unreasonable.

Check out FARIX much better performance(3 times in the last 3 years) with similar SD.
See (PV)

@hank

Good! Makes investing more interesting.

I think unpredictability is good in sports and works of art, but am less enthused about it for the finances of millions of Americans whose retirements are tied to securities markets. It’s one of the reasons I’m a strong believer in Social Security and don’t think it should ever be tied to the stock market.

@LewisBraham - I was speaking as 1 individual investor, which I’m sure you realize. Not everyone possesses your depth of knowledge or my keen interest in investing.
Oh, I agree. It’s absurd that individuals of every education level and walk of life and having vastly disparate incomes during their working years should be expected to manage a retirement portfolio during all their working years and than continue to manage such after retiring. Just nuts. I know well one such individual. Sure didn’t work for him, even with a company match which he did not take full advantage of. That 401-K money was 100% “out the window” after about 3 years into retirement.
I don’t know what the answer is, but would support better SS or other public initiatives to try and level the playing field..

Isn't ironic that many funds are having negative years and many may have capital gain distribution (dividends are not avoidable for taxation).

>> ... be careful. The downturn could go on for a number of years. (But might not). Don’t think you know all the answers. Nobody does.

love it, simply love it
[[edited to add /sarc tag]]

+1
All true OJ. A guess would be it has to do with the speed of change (in rates). Over time people will get used to 6% mortgages or higher if their income / net worth keep pace.
I well remember the 60s / 70s as a teen age “nerd” who subscribed to U.S. News & World Report at 15 and normally read it twice on a weekend. You may recall that the dollar weakened considerably over those inflationary years as cost of living rose from maybe 5% in the 60s to double-digit by the late 70s. Not to be overlooked, gold soared from $35 to over $800 by the mid 70s. Houses appreciated nicely and just about everybody in the world agreed they were the best investments.
We baby boomers “goosed” the home buying frenzy helping push up interest rates. By contrast, equity investing lagged by about a decade but took off in the 70s as I recall. Once we had our homes, new cars (and in some cases kids) we began investing for retirement. My first home in the late 70s carried something like a 10-11% fixed rate mortgage. As my income kept pace - based on COL adjustments plus “stepping” (increases based on years service) - that interest rate didn’t seem onerous.
So, simply put - It takes time for consumers and markets to adjust to new realities. I think in a plane what we’re witnessing right now might be called “bow shock.”

I don’t give investment suggestions @JohnN. ….. :)
Just don’t like people throwing out a bunch of largely unsupported assertions in an attempt to shutter somebody else’s stated point.
As I said on another thread, be careful. The downturn could go on for a number of years. (But might not). Don’t think you know all the answers. Nobody does. I believe Chairman Powell is quite unpredictable. He’d make a good poker player because it’s hard to know what’s really going on in his mind. So, people making decisions based on what he says or what they think the FOMC may do are taking a big gamble.
One non-investment suggestion is to watch some benchmark funds that you think approximate your risk level. (Don’t have to own them.) Than see how your portfolio holds up against those benchmarks. If you’re doing a lot worse over time, that’s something to worry about, Being very conservative I use a number of conservative allocation funds for guidance: VWINX, TRRIX, PRSIX, ABRZX and AOK. And I keep an eye on the excellent PRWCX even though I no longer own it. Some really outstanding long-term conservative allocation funds (like PRSIX) are down double-digit this year. Tells you something.
Generally speaking I’d rather buy something that’s down 40% over one year than something that’s risen 40% over the same time. But it’s not quite that simple. You really need to look at the stock or fund’s longer term history as well as the nature of the investment.