My apologize, but are you trying to create a catastrophe or avoid one with FSRRX?
Here are FSRRX stats (source Portfolio Visualizer):

FSRRX has had no clear advantage over a conservatively allocated fund similar to VWINX.
It's almost 32% draw down in July of 2008 took over 2 years to dig out of. It Real return (after inflation) is barely 2% over the last 15 years. I believe Fidelity offers MM Mutual funds that might achieve this.
As a hedge against bad outcomes what about PRPFX..not perfect but better at dealing with equity market catastrophes.

Event based markets are difficult to bet on, especially when the event is 2 weeks away. Small and micro caps are in red today. So, it is not full on risk, notwithstanding a decent up day in large cap averages.

Yep. Anybody’s guess how it will all play out. Not only the debt question, but Evergrande and a lot of other newsworthy issues. I’d expect a “relief bounce” in many markets lasting a day of two if / when the debt issue is settled. However, I still think the path of least resistance near term is down - if we’re talking about the major indexes. That’s not to say some individual stocks and sectors won’t do well.

Well, for many it goes a bit beyond guessing.
GoldmanSachs for one I trust uses some pretty sophisticated programs and their "guess" (if you can call it that) is for a S&P 9% gain in Q4.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/05/goldman-sachs-sees-a-big-4th-quarter-with-a-9percent-sp-500-gain-from-here.html
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Having been an auditor/audit manager for 30+ years, I'm pretty anal about words as I've seen one incorrect word in a FS footnote can change a person's interpretation of a company's entire financial outlook. (I know, I've read that incorrect "one word" many times and sadly applied ones myself more than I care to remember.)
"Relief bounces" or more commonly "Relief rallies" are generally associated with secular bear markets:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/relief-rally.asp
FWIW, IMO, this is NOT a "relief rally" an I've NOT heard a single person in the biz refer to it as that. Just sayin'.

In case anyone has NOT noticed this, the national biz media tends to get a wee bit overly excited about SMALL moves DOWN in markets. Break the 50 dma and there's probably gonna be a CNBC "Markets in turmoil" special coming pretty soon. Ring the registers!
Yeah, many T/A's and investors gotta get back above the 50 to "feel safe" but several T/A guys/gals I read yesterday expressed that we'll likely be at new highs within a coupla weeks. A coupla weeks or a coupla months makes NO difference to me.
FWIW, I welcomed yesterday's slightly DOWN day to continue to build my ITOT position that I recently started but didn't get fully funded by last THU. I've recently revamped my port and started a new 5-yr portfolio effective 10/01/21. So I'm reasonably certain the BTD moves I've made in the past few days will be MUCH higher in the 5 years they'll be invested there. And the seed came from either cash, maturing CDs, and/or bond OEF sale proceeds. So there's that.
The biggest questions EVERY investor who reduces stock allocations during smallish pullbacks (like this one) and plans to re-deploy back into stocks later needs to ask is:
Am I sure the market is headed DOWN further?
Did a bell ring at the interim top?
Where am I going to park these proceeds?
Is that interim parking spot anywhere near the LT investment as the stocks I cashed them from?
WHEN does my crystal ball tell me will be the best time to re-deploy the parked proceeds back into the market?
Have I been successful with these market timing moves before?
Will I be ready when the time is right this time?
Will a bell ring when it's time?
What is my history/odds of timing this thing right on both the "Run and hide" AND "Get back in the game" moves?
And the BIGGIE: WTF do I do if I whiff on my re-deployment timing and the market moves HIGHER, or god forbid, significantly HIGHER than where it was when I ran and hid?
Is there NOT a better strategy than this one?
I employed the "Run and hide" and "Get back in the game" strategy for a while in hopes (ugh, that unviable investment strategy Art Cashin learned about over 50 years ago and routinely reminds us of ) to score a nirvana moment like dumping ALL of my money back IN the market on a day like March 20, 2020.
What's that infamous Peter Lynch quote again on this topic?
FWIW, I currently employ the BTD strategy that has been working flawlessly (for me at least) since the 2020 crash and I feel safe continuing to do it for the next 5 years.
Disclaimer: We're 65, retired for about ten years, have SS and pensions, have 96% of our port in tax-deferred a/c's, have NOT paid a dime in FIT/SIT since retiring in 2012, and have more $ than we're probably ever to be able to spend. But we're gonna start trying! YMMV.

I second @Ben WP's selection of BIAWX. I've held it a little over 3 years now. I am also invested in some solar stocks: ENPH, SPWR and a little bit of RUN. I use FAN an ETF devoted to wind power. I have been in and out of ICLN but I'm out for now.

From GP's Chairman's letter dated 1/31/2020:
Here is a link to that letter:
https://www.grandeurpeakglobal.com/documents/grandeurpeakglobal-is-20200131.pdf
Excerpt:
There is also a very important strategy that we’ve been developing for several years now, which we call Global Explorer. It follows the same idea as Global Reach, but would be managed by our geography teams rather than the industry teams. Launching Global Explorer is roughly targeted for 2021-2022.
Excerpt from the registration filing link above:
PRINCIPAL INVESTMENT STRATEGIES OF THE FUND
The Fund invests primarily in foreign and domestic micro- to mid-cap companies based on a geography-focused framework intended to identify companies that the Adviser believes are particularly well-positioned for long-term growth.
The Fund will typically invest in securities issued by companies economically tied to at least ten countries, including the United States. The Fund will invest a significant portion of its total assets (at least 40% under normal market conditions) at the time of purchase in securities issued by companies that are economically tied to countries outside the United States, including emerging and frontier market countries. The Adviser generally considers a company to be economically tied to a market based on where the company is organized, headquartered, has its primary stock exchange listing, or has substantial concentration of assets or revenues.

IMHO there was no obvious point at which most people would say they would have sold TPINX, yet most people would have sold at some point. It seemed that this was a good fund to illustrate how one's sell discipline worked in "real life", given that there doesn't appear to be a "correct" answer.
Only one taker, though.
I did have a small position in TGBAX for several years, which I sold in late 2019. I held the position because I wanted, and still want, a smattering of international bonds to diversify the few bonds (funds) I do hold. Given that target allocation, I was not going to sell the fund because of lackluster absolute performance, but because of poor relative performance. Thus I compared with alternative funds.
Lipper shows only 22 international (as opposed to global) bond funds, excluding inaccessible ones like DFA. Currently, one can purchase the following tickers: BEGBX, WISEX (M* classifies as short term bond, I'd call it EM as it invests according to Sharia and seems to hold a lot in the middle east), DIBAX, LWOAX, DNIOX, EPBIX, FBIIX, MPIFX, GARBX (M* call it EM bond), HXIIX (likewise, EM bond), OIBAX, PXBZX, PFORX, PFUIX, RPIBX, TNIBX, TGBAX, TTRZX, FIBZX, TIBWX, VTABX, ESICX.
Ruling out the EM bond funds and funds that weren't even available in 2016 (FBIIX, PXBZX, TNIBX), that leaves just 16 peers not managed by Hasenstab. Of these, only 1/4, 2 PIMCO funds and 2 index funds (Vanguard, TIAA) returned more than 1.75% annualized over the past five years.
So these funds could serve as points of comparison. Here's a PortfolioVisualizer graph comparing TGBAX with the two PIMCO funds since the start of 2011. Actually, TGBAX doesn't look bad compared with PFUIX (unhedged) until 2020.
What happened was that the dollar took off in 2014 and 2015 (see graph here), hurting unhedged funds and apparently also TGBAX. Through the rest of the decade, as the dollar became rather volatile, TGBAX did not respond well. It's a unique fund in that it's a combination of a foreign bond fund and a currency fund. For example, it never had exposure to the Ukranian hryvnia. (More significantly, it tended to short developed market currencies.) The fact that it did not play currency well, which became apparent (to me) only in the late 2010s was a factor in deciding to sell. The fund was not adding value on the currency side.
I will tend to wait three year before pulling a trigger. 2017 was its worst year (relative) since 2011, and while 2018 was a relatively good year, 2019 was a disaster, in both absolute and relative terms. With increasing volatility as well. This, coupled with what now seemed a long term move into exclusively EM bonds, and the aforementioned failure to navigate currencies well said that it was time to leave. Not a single factor, but a combination.
One could easily argue that I should have left years ago. Had I known the dollar would go up so much and that the fund's purported currency expertise was not as advertised, I might have moved years ago into a hedged fund, or into a global fund.
A related question for others: why would you have bought the fund? I ask because in terms of performance being a trigger, if one buys into a type of fund (here, pure international, not hedged back to dollar), then IMHO what matters is performance relative to peers or benchmark. And one should be careful in identifying peers. Global and international funds are different, even if M* chooses to lump them together.

Hi guys,
Thanks to those that made comment on my post and the linked article.
I am providing a short blub on how I roll which will explain in some detail why I chose option 1. This was taken from a recent weekly briefing and market recap that I write.
Now being in the distribution phase of investing (age 74) I run an all weather asset allocation portfolio with asset weightings of 20/40/40 (cash/bonds/stocks) and I can move up, or down, five percent in the bond area, in the stock area, or in both areas while letting cash float. I am presently at a neutral weighting while I await the next stock market pullback. Most likely, I will engage the stock market and overweight stocks through a special investment (spiff) position to play the rebound; and, then exit through a step sell process during the updaraft until I reach, or maintain, my desired asset allocation weighting. Generally, I rebalance at plus (or minus) two percent from my desired asset weighting. However, I can move from a low asset allocation weighting of 33% to a high asset allocation weighting of 47% in both the stock and bond areas, or some point in between, without having to do a force rebalance. At the low asset weighting (33% each) I could be as high as 34% cash and at the high asset weighting (47% each) I could be as low a 6% in cash. At first brush, what appeared to be a mudane portfolio does indeed afford for some good range in asset movement for positioning, based upon market reads, plus the portfolio generates a sufficient income stream which is important to me being retired.
From what I wrote in a recent weekly briefing and recap.
Today, September 17th being tripple witching day, with the S&P 500 Index closing at 4433 I opened my first "spiff" buy step to start my seasonal special investment position. Generally, I will load equites coming into fall, hold them during the winter, and then exit the position as spring arrives moving sell proceeds into either bond funds, cash or some of both. This is a strategy that I learned from my late father back in the 1970's as I became a more achmpolished investor. Through the years most spiffs have been beneficial for me with positive returns, but not always. Click on the below link to learn more about the strategy. https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/602700/sell-in-may-and-go-away-here-we-go-again
Taken form my September 24th briefing and recap.
During the week I made my second spiff step buy. I have now made two equally weighted spiff buy steps at S&P 500 Index readings of 4433 & 4354 for a gain of 1.4% as of Friday's market close (4455). These spiff buys will open my fall seasonal investment strategy where I usually load equities coming into the fall, hold them through the winter months and then start ot lighten up coming out of winter and moving into spring. I have found that the strategy does not work every year but has worked more times than not. I generally limit the strategy to no more than five percent of my portfolio.
And, taken form my October 1st briefing and recap.
Since, I have bought equity step buy positons during the last couple weeks (during market dips opening my fall equity spiff position) this was watch the action week collecting my month and quarter end mutual fund distributions and building cash while I await bigger declines. If not, then I will continue with an average in process building my fall spiff position as we move into the winter months.
Thus, in review of the options listed in the linked article I felt option 1 was the best fit although option 3 somewhat fits because I am generally not a seller in a stock maket decline which option 2 covers although I do rebalance, from time-to-time as some have noted in their comments.
Take care and thanks for stopping by and reading.

@Stillers: "Friday was a pretty important day in which the Dip/Diplet appears (to me and the people I read/follow) to have abated. At least for the time being that is, and stopping a potential gusher after you've rolled the dice a bit is always an upbeat time for me."
Do you mind sharing with us where you read / follow those people, assuming those are public and free sites? Did these folks also mention why the market went down? It will be good for me to also read other forums.
...

Do you mind sharing with us where you read / follow those people,
No, I would rather NOT share their names/company's names. I'm getting bashed here a bit and the last thing I want to do is post names of my fave T/A's, market analysts, PMs, etal that I subscribe to/follow, and then have to fend off the additional bashing about them. Not worth my time.
assuming those are public and free sites?
No, they are not all (free) public sites. I pay for a coupla investment service newsletters.
Did these folks also mention why the market went down?
Hmmm...first, a LOT of investors/media get bent out of shape over DOWN moves of 5% in the overall market. That's still in the normal market breathing range for me. Yes, they all state their thoughts on the specific reasons for this LITTLE move DOWN we've had recently. They of course vary. That said, IF there's a consensus among them, it's that the recent action was highly predictable/widely expected and normal market breathing.
It will be good for me to also read other forums.
You can read "forums" until you're blue in the face. LOTS of threads out here frequented by LOTS of posters with varying levels of investment experience and expertise (yeah, they're different). There were a couple posters who have made me "real" money over the past 10 years, namely the old M* CEF Forum crew who daily, for years, provided a pretty much paint-by-numbers plan to profit from FI CEFs, and the poster who got me to fully understand and apply his main investment axiom, "Volatility is the price you pay for growth." They are more the exception than the rule of forums. Kindly suggest finding some worthy professionals to regularly read. I will throw out two names. Start with Katie Stockton (for T/A) and Jurrien Timmer (for market perspective). See if you like them and if not, find someone that you do. Also, disregard the widespread bashing of CNBC. They have regulars and guests on there who provide priceless, free, current analysis on the market. Three notable PMs who are regulars on there are amongst my faves for market analysis and portfolio construction.

I prefer the third strategy - Hold and Stick to Your Game Plan.
An investor could create a portfolio with an appropriate asset allocation (accounting for risk tolerance and risk capacity) and then rebalance the portfolio periodically.
The second strategy, Sell and Limit Your Risks, sounds good in theory but may be very difficult to execute.
There can be huge opportunity costs when investors "stay on the sidelines" while stock markets are rising.
For example, some investors liquidated most or all of their equity positions in 2008/2009 and avoided stocks for years afterward.

Yes, this no longer surprises me.
There have been multiple issues with various M* products over the past few years.

We work, we earn, we save. We invest simply and sensibly. Perhaps we’ve accepted the challenge to live on half. Eventually, we have reached our magic number.
We’ve got 25, 30, or 33.33 years’ worth of anticipated annual expenses for a 4%, 3.33%, or 3% withdrawal rate spread across various tax-deferred, tax-advantaged, and taxable accounts.
We are experts in adding to them. But how do we best subtract from them? Today, I’d like to share our drawdown plan in early retirement.

physicianonfire.com/drawdown
Second Article:

5-steps-for-defining-your-retirement-drawdown-strategy

While @rono is a familiar and most welcome poster to us oldsters, newbies to the board during the past decade may not fully appreciate his experience and knowledge on this subject. In the days of MFO’s predecessor, Fund Alarn, rono regularly posted a daily early morning edition called “Asia and the Metals” summarizing recent developments in those areas along with point-on perspectives. Always a class act.
Personally, I’ve long held alternative type investments / inflation hedges which include a 1-3% exposure to a mining fund. That’s in addition to significant exposure to PRPFX which was earlier discussed. I don’t mind saying that even in picking my entry points carefully over the past 12-18 months I’ve ‘had my “bell rung” on the miners. The action over the past 6 months or so simply stinks. Likely some of the carnage stems from the “big boys” (hedge funds, etc) strategically pushing around the metal (playing both long and short) in what is a very thinly traded market and also trying to spook smaller investors and gain an edge. Rono mentions buying / selling by sovereign banks. And there’s the strong dollar plus the current crypto craze.
The thing to keep in mind is that the precious metals and miners can turn on a dime. It’s not unheard of for prices of either to double in a year or two - though the downside can be just as extreme. I suspect at some not too distant stage the precious metals will again be in vogue. All markets in recent years appear much more prone to running to the extremes along with public sentiment . Likely many have over-shot on both the up side and down side since the ‘07-‘09 crash. So, I continue to hold to a roughly 2% position in the p/m miners.

While the semi-annual dividend is not much to write home about especially when a shares trades $700-$800 per share, it does contribute when reinvesting it in additional shares. This is definitely a growth stock with a niche market. My small initial investment in ASML has grown significantly over the years. It is one of my top 7 stock holdings by value.

There's a difference between liquidating a fund position because one has lost faith in the fund and adjusting the holding because of performance. (Part of the original question included the example: "sell 25% of holding for each 20% gain in a year".)
Performance based adjustments can be done mechanically, based on one's target allocations.
I generally concur with observant1's approach, though I'm more inclined to let a "loser" ride longer, say three years. How much history I use depends on how the fund is managed.
If a fund has a distinctive style, I'll tend to give it more slack. One reason is that it would be difficult to replace. Another more important reason is that because of its style, it may be more likely to do better, or worse, over extended (multi-year) periods.

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Here's a good exercise, given that "everyone" thinks M* should have downgraded TPINX before now. When would you have sold it, and why?
The fund had great years through 2010, so let's look at the past decade. Here's a M* page with that data. Pay attention to the benchmark index (world gov bond index) rather than the category returns since the fund was not in that category until recently.
http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=TPINX
In relative terms it was only in 2017 that performance began to fall apart. While it beat its index by 2½% in 2018, it underperformed substantially in 2017 (-5%+), 2019 (-5%+), and hugely in 2020 (-14½%).
After its great 2012, in 2013 and 2014 the fund returned very little (2%, 1½%). Would you have sold even though on a relative basis it did great (2013) and average (2014)?
Would you have sold at the end of 2015 after those two low return years followed by 2015 when the fund landed squarely in the middle of the pack and fell just short of its benchmark?
Surely you would not have sold after 2016, which was a fine year (6%+ vs 1.6% for its benchmark).
Would you have sold after 2017 which was the first really clear bad year on a relative basis? Or would you have waited to see what would happen?
If you did wait, would you have felt comforted by the 2018 performance when the fund again beat most of its peers and beat its benchmark by over 2%? Or would you have looked at the absolute performance of 1.27% and said to yourself: this is even worse than 2017 where it returned just 2.35%. I don't care about relative performance, I'm out?
After 2019's relative disaster, would you have called it quits, perhaps because two of the previous three years (2017, 2019) were very bad (each 5%+ under the benchmark)?
Or would you have waited for two successive bad years relative to its benchmark? It took until 2019-2020 for that to happen.

I don't think you'll have an issue. It is the leading company in its area in the semiconductor industry. I believe it is one the leaders in the lithography on wafers. With semiconductors having a shortage, there should be strong demand for their product.
Years ago, JP Morgan had a direct purchase program of ADRs. You could enroll with a minimum investment of $250 plus fees which I subscribed to for ASML. As time has passed, my shares of ASML ended up with Equiniti for safekeeping.

Still own my ASML. Have not bought any more of it since I bought it at least 10 years ago.
If you were looking for an initial point, today may be the day. Saw the price hit low-to-mid 800's per share prior to today.
I was hoping it would split again (it has split four times (97,98, 00 & 12)).

Some MFO posters have held stock positions in ASML over the years. It's down about 6% today. Any thoughts on a buying opportunity?
Thanks-OJ

Very good discussion in this thread.
Over time, I have read about a lot of buying strategies. E.g., DCA, BTD, etc. But I have never read an exit strategy. I think this is a secret sauce people do not share. I hope folks in this forum share their exit strategies.

Investors sometimes sell their best-performing stocks too soon and keep their poor-performing stocks too long.
I mostly invest in mutual funds and would consider selling a fund for the following reasons:
1) Underperforms category for more than two consecutive years.
Some funds generate "lumpy" returns which is factored into the decision.
2) Unwelcome fund company or fund manager/management team changes.
3) Significant investment strategy modifications.
4) Meaningful fee increases.
This is more art than science for me.
Selling your winners and holding your losers is like cutting the flowers and watering the weeds.
-Peter Lynch

@Derf - Take it as a “rough approximation”. Notes on the Roth conversions still exist. But the running tally of exchanges I maintain only goes back about 3 years. The day the bottom began falling out stands out in memory as I was driving up to Michigan’s UP for a few days relaxation - maybe some early fall color. Listened to the opening salvo on Sirius.
But thanks @Derf! I like to think I have a pretty good memory. :)
Added note: What I tried to show through my personal experience is how difficult or perplexing a BTFD mentality can become once markets stop cooperating with the dipper (dippee?) Once cash is expended, other methods need be found to continue the dipping process - “circuitous” methods let us say.

Howdy folks,
Interesting discussion and most everything is spot on. Hank's and the others have been doing this for a long time.
Is golds still a hedge against inflation? That remains to be seen. The market is extremely manipulated not in a conspiratorial way but legally by all the central banks and countries that wish to do so. This makes it tough to play in the short run. Almost impossible.
First of all I see gold in a couple of different ways. First I see it as a core investment for all portfolios. Say in the 3-7% range, preferably in physical bullion. More that this size of a holding is speculation. This is fine as long as you know it speculation.
I try to play gold and silver in a momentum investing manner. When they start to show some momentum, you scale in and ride it until it starts to break down at which point you scale out. There is no positive momentum at this point in time.
I mentioned silver only because I do prefer to trade it and as was pointed out, the mining stocks, particularly the juniors. All I can say is that this is where the leverage is and it can truly be nose bleed stuff.
Most precious metal mutual funds contain mining stocks and zero bullion. And you want to be careful with bullion ETF's because they are taxable at the collectibles rate if held in a taxable account. Ouch!
Permanent Portfolio PFPFX is based upon a diversified portfolio that Harry Browne came up with. He felt be diversifying between select asset classes you could smooth the market cycles. WTF knows. I do own it and have for years and will continue to do so.
As for wealth diversification, the Elder Rothschild said a long time ago, that to protect your assets you should have 1/3 invested in securities, 1/3 in real estate and 1/3 in rare art. Rare art can be a lot of things but it ain't beanie babies. In my case, I sub rare coins and bullion for the latter category.
Of note with the current market in bullion, there is a major divergence between paper price and street price. This means that official paper price is viewed as bogus by the people buying and selling physical bullion and therefore there is a very large premium attached to all bullion purchases.
and so it goes,
peace and wear the damn mask,
rono