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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • 10-Year CDs @ 4%
    Everyone will put their on spin and expectations on this bear market, strong probability of becoming a recession. For me, I am 74, and 9 years into retirement. My focus is to preserve my accumulated assets, and to do my best to make a positive return in this tough market. I exited the market several months, with a slight YTD loss--less than 1% and have been in money market funds. I am now adding shorter term CDs to my portfolio, to ensure I will finish with a positive total return by year end. My focus is on 6 to 9 month CDs, which have been going up in interest return in the past month. I am expecting shorter term CD interest rates to rise significantly by the end of the year--if I am correct, I will look at some laddering for 2023, but if I am wrong and this bear market/possible recession is shorter than I have predicted, then hopefully I can catch some of the rebound and maybe more stability in investing. My current, imperfect opinion, is that 2022 will not improve for the remainder of the year, and 2023 will not start off well--I may very well be wrong, but I think the Feds will continue raising interest rates to try to beat down inflation, oil supply will struggle for the rest of the year, and we will start seeing unemployment creep up. All in all, I would prefer the safety of CDs until I see more positive signs that this bear market is over.
    dtconroe in Other Investing
  • PREMX / Issue?
    Owned PREMX years ago, glad I'm not in anymore. I often look at it for fun and noticed what @hank has noticed. I compare(d) it to FNMIX--- which always did a bit better, back when. But FNMIX is in the crapper, too.
    Crash Crash in Fund Discussions
  • Importance of Consecutive 90% Down Days ????
    Over the past month, losses among sectors have been fairly uniform. Overweight investments in the energy and utilities sectors mitigated my overall YTD stock market losses until then with the past week hurting my portfolio the most. It appears to me the stock market decline has recently entered a new, more generalized selling phase as it moves towards it's eventual bottom. So, I suspect the 90% down days information at the start of this thread represents more than random event -- particularly if it truly spans almost 100 years of data. Every cycle is different and the recent Fed activism adds a new wrinkle. But, even so, I wonder if history could provide useful information to those who are able to read it.
    davfor davfor in Other Investing
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    “Mary Ellen has 43 years of investment experience managing a broad range of fixed income portfolios. She is responsible for the formulation of fixed income strategy as well as the development and implementation of all fixed income asset management services. Mary Ellen serves on the board of Baird Financial Group, is President of the Baird Funds and is chair of the Baird Diversity Steering Committee.” Source
    Currently age 64. Must have begun managing money at 21. The Bond Bull began 2 years later.
    hank in Fund Discussions
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    Another possibility is BRUFX (Bruce fund). Like DODBX its stock holdings are large value, while PRWCX/TRAIX is large growth. But while DODBX has a 49% turnover, Bruce is only 4%. So in a non-tax-deferred account your after tax return is higher with BRUFX than with DODBX (9.54% vs 9.08% average over last 3 years and 7.62% vs. 6.97% average over 5 yrs. ), but 1 and 10 yrs DODBX did better.) I think that TRAIX and BRUFX complement each other. You need to buy Bruce directly from them, but it is easier to hold as it is considerably less volatile (3 yr beta of 0.95 vs 1.34 for DODBX and 1.04 for the T. Rowe Price offerings.). Bruce's site is www.thebrucefund.com
    NumbersGal in Other Investing
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    It appears Ms Stanek is ~66, as she graduated from Marquette University in 1978 and, according to Baird, has 43 years of investment management. So <<10 years experience prior to the bond bull market, FWIW.
    https://www.marquette.edu/alumni/awards-2010/recipient_Stanek.php
    https://www.bairdassetmanagement.com/bio/mary-ellen-stanek/
    orage in Fund Discussions
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    How do you manage through a cycle of rising interest rates and higher inflation? There aren’t too many money managers who have that experience …
    The bond bull market began in 1981.
    That’s about 41 years ago.
    Let’s assume the manager had a minimum of 10 years experience as an investment manager / advisor preceding the bond bull market.
    If age 15 when he / she began their career they’d be 66 today (in or near retirement).
    If 25 when he / she began investing they’d be 76 today.
    If 35 when he / she began investing they would be 86 today.
    hank in Fund Discussions
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    How do you manage through a cycle of rising interest rates and higher inflation? There aren’t too many money managers who have that experience and have a track record of excellence through many different types of markets. This week’s guest does. She is Mary Ellen Stanek, Co-Chief Investment Officer of Baird Advisors.
    Stanek was recently named Morningstar’s Outstanding Portfolio Manager of 2022 for her “disciplined and risk-aware approach, thoughtfully navigating various market environments,… and generating impressive absolute and risk-adjusted returns” in her 22 years at Baird.


    bee bee in Fund Discussions
  • M* screwing everything up again
    @msf: Yes, for years I entered shares owned to the mutual funds I entered in what I thought was portfolios but were actually watchlists. And it functioned perfectly well. But I found a button that allowed me to instantly convert "legacy" watchlists to legacy portfolios (albeit one by one) and these migrated automatically to the Investor section to become "investor portfolios". But I would have preferred they just left things as they were. Now there are too many bells and whistles. That usually means there are more things to become dysfunctional more often.
    Ben in Other Investing
  • M* screwing everything up again
    OK, I worked it out. Apparently what I have been calling "portfolios" M* has been calling "watchlists". There is an option to migrate watchlists and that was quick and easy to use.
    The legacy portfolio manager has for many years had both portfolios and watchlists. M* describes the difference between a legacy portfolio and a legacy watchlist thusly:
    A Portfolio contains detailed data on holdings including purchase date, shares, and price, and allow for greater historical tracking and analysis.
    A Watch List can be used to track stocks/funds of interest and only requires entering ticker symbols.
    As I recall, the portfolios were supposed to keep track of dividend reinvestments. I don't know whether that was automatic or required transactions to be input manually, but it was added complexity that I didn't care about. So I stuck with watchlists to track portfolios.
    With the "new and improved" portfolio manager, M* has changed the meaning of a watchlist and impaired its functionality (the politically incorrect verb is "crippled"). No longer can it be used to track a portfolio. It doesn't let you enter the number of shares you own of a security. So of course it no longer reports the aggregate value of the "watched" holdings, or the daily change of the aggregate.

    M* says    : "When creating a watchlist you do not enter the number of shares or purchase price."
    So what's the point of this stripped down watchlist?M* says that "The purpose of a watchlist is to track investment ideas or securities that you don't currently own. It is also used to compare 2 or more securities using custom sets of datapoints that you create."
    msf in Other Investing
  • M* screwing everything up again
    I pay about $50 yearly for an app from Apple’s store. Positives and negatives. Usually one of the prices on a fund is inaccurate or missing.
    M* has been fine over several years.
    I’m looking now at Yahoo‘s free tracker. Provided recovery email. You can opt out of their request for a phone number, Confusing to set up. Also being bombarded with ads even with my blocker running.
    ************************************
    I was lately locked out of my yahoo mail when Apple fried my computer with an "update." I just created a new email, and used it as access to Yahoo's free tracker--- since the email gives me an account presence. I'm running a few privacy and ad-blocking applications, too. But the page is so BUSY! You're correct. I have not yet tried to go further than simply LISTING stocks/funds I wish to track. Turning me off rather quickly.
    Crash Crash in Other Investing
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/15/22
    @yogibearbull,
    My thinking (minus the Neel speculation) was exactly that. I noticed the presser dynamics too. If there was a severe adverse reaction to the leak, the Fed probably would have stuck to the 50 basis points. With no such reaction, Fed got the permission to push the 75 basis points through.
    We had a leak of the Friday CPI on Thursday too. With no transaction fee trading, the markets are moving very fast compared to only a couple of years ago. Leaks are exacerbating the problem. The volatility across the board has ratcheted up. At some point, the market participants should start requiring higher risk premium, commensurate with the higher volatility, and may effect market liquidity / plumbing in the long run.
    I do not like this normalization of the leak culture - not only the small guy gets screwed, it is also not good for an orderly functioning of society.
    BaluBalu in Other Investing
  • M* screwing everything up again
    I have used Portfolio manager for years. It was particularly useful when I had assets in several places. But dudes,,,,, we have bigger things to fret about. Maybe we should be like the Bogleheads who brag about not looking at the their investments for months at a time.
    larryB in Other Investing
  • M* screwing everything up again
    I pay about $50 yearly for an app from Apple’s store. Positives and negatives. Usually one of the prices on a fund is inaccurate or missing.
    M* has been fine over several years.
    I’m looking now at Yahoo‘s free tracker. Provided recovery email. You can opt out of their request for a phone number, Confusing to set up. Also being bombarded with ads even with my blocker running.
    hank in Other Investing
  • PIMCO TRENDS Managed Futures Strat Instl PQTIX
    Sorry, but PQTIX lost 1.70% today.
    But, PGAGX - PGIM Wadhwani Systematic Absolute Return Fund gained 0.66%! PGAGX, a fairly new fund, is currently on my watch list. Looking for lower volatility funds in this category. So far, so good.
    According to the Financial Times, the investment objective of the related UK fund is to seek a positive return on capital while simultaneously attempting to limit the risk of capital loss using a multi-faceted risk management. PGAGX intends to achieve its investment objective through investment in financial markets globally, gaining exposure through the use of financial derivative instruments to currencies (through forward foreign exchange contracts), fixed income securities (through bond futures) and equity securities (through equity index futures and equity index swaps) or by investing directly in equities.
    Per M*, the manager, Dr. Sushil Wadhwani, CBE, is the Chief Investment Officer for QMAW, originally founded as Wadhwani Asset Management in October 2002. Prior to joining QMA, Sushil served as the Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Wadhwani Asset Management. He was formerly a full-time member of the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England from 1999 to 2002. Prior to this, his roles included director of research, head of systems trading and partner at the Tudor Group, and director of equity strategy at Goldman Sachs International Ltd, and as an academic economist at the London School of Economics. He has over 25 years of quantitative modelling experience and runs a high calibre team of quantitative and qualitative research analysts...
    Fred
    fred495 in Fund Discussions
  • Crypto next cycle to start by Q4
    BION, I have a friend who made enough money in Bitcoin a few years ago to buy his daughter a house. I’m sure he’s out of that market now. Glad @rforno got out.
    BenWP BenWP in Other Investing
  • EPD
    @Crash: we have personal experience as heirs of a portfolio containing several Limited Master Partnerships, positions bought and held by a DIY investor before the advent of electronic brokerage record keeping. The estate (read the lawyers) had to establish a basis at time of death for everything being passed on. It took several years to sort things out, at considerable expense to the heirs. The ironic aspect of this mess was the original investor’s intent to save on income taxes. That the outcome resulted in handing over his hard-earned dough to lawyers and accountants instead of the IRS would surely have disturbed his final rest.
    BenWP BenWP in Fund Discussions
  • PIMCO TRENDS Managed Futures Strat Instl PQTIX
    Managed-futures funds are supposed to latch on to some trend, up or down, to make money. But as far as stocks/SP500 is concerned, PQTIX has been NEGATIVELY correlated. This is seen in the ratio chart of PQTIX:SPY; the bottom panels show PQTIX and SPX. In a ratio chart, down-trend means underperformance, up-trend means outperformance, flat means in-line performance. Timeframe used is 5 yrs but may default to 1 yr later.
    So, PQTIX bet has been on other markets outperforming the SP500 and that has only worked recently. I held it for several years but dumped it (prematurely) before its recent spurt. In general, I have been disappointed with both managed-futures and long-short funds.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PQTIX:SPY&amp;p=D&amp;yr=5&amp;mn=0&amp;dy=0&amp;id=p09370989141
    yogibearbull yogibearbull in Fund Discussions
  • PIMCO TRENDS Managed Futures Strat Instl PQTIX
    I own some and (more) KMLM in the same space. The latter does not have a long record as an ETF, but its managed futures strategy dates to 1993. It seems to have avoided the string of mediocre years of performance that PQT_X racked up, as Lewis highlighted. ER for KMLM is 0.9%, or half of the PIMCO fund. Nice presentation at kfafunds.com/kmlm in which they explain in detail the make up of their proprietary special sauce, the KFA MLM managed futures strategy. They also detail the long-term performance of their Index. Thanks to @wxman123 for the tip on this ETF.
    BenWP BenWP in Fund Discussions
  • PIMCO TRENDS Managed Futures Strat Instl PQTIX
    Diane, I have used PQTIX for a few years and a couple of other funds in the Managed Futures space in an attempt to diversity my portfolio and add some assets that are not correlated to the stock and bonds markets. I also thought they might perform well in the inflationary environment we are in now and I thought was coming with the government Covid spending.While managed futures have performed well, as of late, their long term record is not as impressive. I like Managed Futures for the diversifying features but they also have some strong negatives. Opaqueness of strategy and holdings is a major drawback but reading all the literature and reports the advisors or sub advisors publish can help clear a lot of that up. The expense ratios are ridiculously high. There is the opportunity cost of holding them when they may underperform in a bull market and how much that insurance is worth in the next downturn and that is only if the managers models are mostly correct and they can perform as well as they have this bear market next time. I would also try and hold these in a tax deferred account they can be tax inefficient. I hope that helps.
    Dutch in Fund Discussions