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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Large unplanned LT cap. gain 2022. Should a 1040-ES be filed; to pay taxes now?
    One way to "income average" is to literally sell over time. Say 10% each year. If it is income-generating land, then you could get 90% of the revenue when you retained 90% of the ownership and so on.
    That's a little messy. A way to effect something similar is to make the transaction a seller-financed sale and collect installment payments. I would have thought that such a sale would be treated as two separate transactions - a competed sale now, and a mortgage where you are the lender.
    But Congress (IRC § 453) long ago decided that for installment sales, capital gains would not be recognized until payments were made. Since the payments are made over several years, this becomes another way to spread the recognized capital gains over time.
    IRS Topic 705 - Installment Sales
    Form 6252 - Installment Sale Income
    Pub 537 - Installment Sales
  • Calling EDGAR experts at MFO
    There is a "classic" version of EDGAR? Who knew?
    Love the dig at New Coke. A staple of branding lectures for years when I started teaching in the 1980s.
    Thanks again, msf! And thanks to everyone who keeps this board going, it has already proved quite the resource.
    I think this is the result you got.
    https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=0000036405
    Try switching to the "classic" version. As M* and Coke have demonstrated, "new" is not necessarily improved.

    This "SEC classic" page links to filings all the way back to 1994.
    https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=0000036405&owner=exclude
    Until 1998 the fund was known as Vanguard Index Trust 500 Portfolio.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB852585751767090500
  • Pelosi bought lots chips techs last few days
    I'm not a stock picker. But I have been buying tech funds for our accounts the past ten days or so. These include TDV, FSCSX, CSGZX, and FTEC. In a sector as diverse as tech, I like to spread my bets around. And I don't mind a little active management.
    Prices are down quite a bit. It's not like the importance of tech to our lives will fade away. These sort of tech-specific funds are around 8-10% of our portfolios. And I still have cash on hand should rising rates lead to even better opportunities.
    I have not bought any chip-specific funds. Forty years of reading the San Francisco Chronicle business section has left me with the feeling that I'm not nimble enough for getting in and out of chips that don't come in bags from the store. If Paul Pelosi thinks he's nimble enough at his age, more power to him.
  • Calling EDGAR experts at MFO
    Suppose I want to find the year by year expense ratio for some mutual fund of interest--in this example, the Vanguard 500 Index fund, originally VFINX. Easy enough to get its performance from M* etc. back to its beginning in 1976, and easy enough to get the S&P index performance over that period from the SBBI. Subtracting the two gives an estimate of expenses, but only an estimate; strictly speaking, the subtraction gives tracking error, not expenses incurred.
    Like all funds, it files at the SEC and these filings go into the EDGAR database. Naively, since EDGAR goes back to 1994 (I am told), I hoped to get those expense ratios from EDGAR, and maybe, in my dreams, find a 10-year trailing table back to 1984 from the 1994 filing. Add seven years of Wiesenberger yearbooks and I'd be done.
    But when I enter the ticker at the EDGAR search engine, 2013 is the oldest report listed. However, that search was entered at the "front page" and I am a naïve EDGAR user.
    Some members here will not be naïve EDGAR users. Do you know how to get a pre-2013 filing on VFINX online? Or where else might you send me for that year by year data on expense ratios? (I have John Bogle's data on expense ratios for Vanguard as a whole, but that doesn't answer my question)
    Why do I care? Tracking error can be positive, due to security lending etc. Only with a separate calculation of expense can one vet how well fund management did given the expenses they were dealt. Not so important with an index fund, maybe; more so with the ordinary sort of fund.
    PS: were this data to be available in MFO Premium, please tell me!
  • Barron's Midyear Roundtable
    A.J. Cohen has had quite a career. Years ago, I noted any public statement she might make. Later, it always seemed she was..... WRONG.
    On Rukeyser’s show she seemed always the optimist. Nick-named “Gabby” by some back than. I feel in hindsight that was unfair. Of course, in those days she was with Goldman Sachs, not teaching as today. Whatever one thinks of her forecasting skills, I’d say those are some fortunate students.
  • Barron's Midyear Roundtable
    A.J. Cohen has had quite a career. Years ago, I noted any public statement she might make. Later, it always seemed she was..... WRONG.
  • Barron's Midyear Roundtable
    William Priest recommends LSXMA, holder of SirusXM. SiriusXM derives 80% of its revenue from subscriptions by “relatively affluent drivers.”
    Just wondering. Yes, 80% of new cars come with Sirius. However, ISTM it will take a backseat to direct internet connectivity / streaming in coming years, allowing a broader and cheaper range of offerings. I could be wrong. But I’d liken buying Sirius to investing in a beautiful Kodak camera or suburb 8-track tape player.
    Another of his recommendations, DE, is more interesting. I was surprised to check and find it down a bit this year after a hot start. Likely related to the downturn in housing. In addition to agricultural products, DE Makes a lot of construction machinery.
    More …
    WOW - ELLENBOGEN sees a reassion coming sooner than most expect. Pretty downbeat on the economy. ABBY COHEN just the opposite. No recession in sight! Do academics tend to view the economy more through rose colored glasses? But BHANSALI takes the prize for bearishness, forecasting a “lost decade” of multiple years of equity declines.
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Maybe it will be worth checking out the Seafarer website for the posted info. I owned the original Seafarer fund, years ago. I was disappointed by it after some years, and moved out of it.
    I also owned SIGIX several years ago.
    This fund is performing well (on a relative basis) this year compared to other EM funds.
    Andrew Foster is a gifted communicator and his commentaries on the Seafarer website
    are worth reading. During the past few years I have not owned any dedicated EM funds
    and have delegated EM security selection to my foreign fund managers.
  • NRDBY Nordea Bank ADR div. (Helsinki HQ)
    Ty crash for the recommended stock NRDBY
    How long have you hold it and are you happy w it?...thinking add it for long term.
    We been buying more XLF BAC
    looking at Citigroup now, had it but sold it few years ago [W.Buffet add so much Citigroup last wk??]
    Happy Sunday
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Maybe it will be worth checking out the Seafarer website for the posted info. I owned the original Seafarer fund, years ago. I was disappointed by it after some years, and moved out of it.
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    I recall his appearance on Wall Street Week with Lewis Rukeyser after he'd just won Morningstar's Manager of the Year award, many years ago. I had a monstrously bad experience over the phone with another of the fund managers and pulled my money. Asia's not been a great place to invest in several years, anyhow.
  • Barron's Midyear Roundtable
    Barron's Midyear Roundtable has several fund ideas. LINK
    COVER STORY, “What to Buy Right Now: 42 Picks from Barron’s (Midyear) ROUNDTABLE Pros”. A report card of prior hits/misses is also included.
    Tod AHLSTEN/Parnassus CIO & PRBLX: VRSK, MMC, ICE, AMAT. Opportunities in the downturn.
    William PRIEST/Epoch Inv Partners: TMUS, DTEGY, TSM, LSXMA, DE
    Rupal BHANSALI/Ariel CIO: DIISY, BAP, BBSEY, BIDU, ELEZY, SNMRY, PM. Likes Lat Am & Europe over US; prefers dividend payors.
    Henry ELLENBOGEN/Durable Capital: INTU, TEAM, DUOL. Likes quality-growth.
    Abby Joseph COHEN/Columbia U: LG Chem, FANUY, BKNG, JWN. No recession in 2022 or 2023.
    Scott BLACK/Delphi: CACI, CB. Shallow recession is already here (notable early projection). Avoid story stocks with low/no earnings. His SP500 earnings est $219 only.
    Sonal DESAI/Franklin Templeton FI CIO: CPREX, FHYVX, GLFOX, EAPCX, FRIAX; ETF SRLN. No recession in 2022/H1 or 2023/H1, may be in 2023/H2.
    Mario GABELLI/Gamco: CNHI, AJRD, HRI, BATRA, PARA, SBGI, DRQ, HAL. Mild recession. Despite volatility now, 2023/H1 looks promising for US, Europe, China.
    Meryl WITMER/Eagle Capital: SLVM, DFIN, EEFT
    David GIROUX/Price CIO & PRWCX: FTV, NXPI, GE, TEL. Mild recession. Overweight – IT, industrials; underweight – consumer-staples, utilities; leveraged-loans still OK.
    Part 2 will mention some Japanese funds (feature by @LewisBraham). Edit/Add LINK2
    FUNDS. After years of deflation, JAPAN is seeing some inflation due to high oil prices and supply-chain disruptions. The BOJ is continuing its easy monetary policy until the inflation target of +2% is met, and yen has collapsed. Japanese funds are attractive: GMAHX, HJPNX, MJFOX, PRJPX; ETFs EWJ, EWJV, DFJ.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/13/22
    @hank : I'll restate my comment. Is it time to leave the market & invest elsewhere. Is it possible Mr. Market will take more than a break & & wallow for a number of years in a quagmire ? Until the easy money flows no more & the Fed pulls it head out of it's a.., I see no relief in sight.
    Hope I'm wrong, Derf
    :) :) - Would some other folks please address? I seem to have lost my crystal ball. From a linguistic standpoint @Derf’s insertion of “is it possible?” would seem to require an affirmative response.
    Was it Patrick Henry who demurred “I know of no way to judge the future but by the past”? That’s true of many things in life. There’s a rich history of equity, bond, real estate activity dating back at least to 1929. I still remember exactly where I was and what I was doing in 1987 when the Dow fell about 25% one afternoon.
    I’ll share a couple biases here: I don’t pay a lot of attention to forecasts in making investment decisions. Even if a particular forecast (inflation, interest rates, GDP, recession, etc.) proves correct, it’s likely those much brighter, more sophisticated and better informed than we have already preemptively acted on that forecast (driving asset prices) before we can. Another bias: An object in motion tends to stay in motion. Very true of different assets today. Folks continue to pile into winning positions. SARK has likely attracted far more assets in recent months than ARKK. This pushes assets to extremes. True of many other assets. Of course, eventually a rolling ball strikes a wall. It it’s a snowball it has picked up mass and momentum along the way. You get the idea …
    -
    @Derf is one of our most respected and informed posters. He raises interesting questions. To me they relate to the central question of why we invest. Mostly I view my own modest assets as long term contingency reserves that may or may not be needed before I depart for the lovely Andromeda Galaxy. Withdrawals to supplement SS and pension are small compared to the nest egg. Your needs / reasons for investing might be completely different.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/13/22
    @hank : I'll restate my comment. Is it time to leave the market & invest elsewhere. Is it possible Mr. Market will take more than a break & & wallow for a number of years in a quagmire ? Until the easy money flows no more & the Fed pulls it head out of it's a.., I see no relief in sight.
    Hope I'm wrong, Derf
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/13/22
    Bloomberg has two columnists with close to opposing views. I am pretty sure you need to subscribe to read these but
    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-14/how-many-months-until-the-fed-brings-inflation-nearing-double-digits-to-a-peak
    Takes the view that inflation will continue until there is a sever recession, implying significant more ( 20%) downside
    He points to "sticky" inflation ie large ticket items that are harder to reprice quickly like gas and food, is starting rise quickly, and rents are usually reset on yearly leases
    Still the expected fed funds hikes have not increased much since February and still predict cuts in 2023. The market clearly thinks "peak" inflation is in sight but the question is how far ahead and does it destroy economic growth in the process and lower earnings take the market down much further
    The opposing view
    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-13/inflation-alarm-bells-are-actually-getting-softer
    "Bond investors showed that they expect inflation to cool by betting that the gap will narrow between the yield of inflation-protected US securities and ordinary Treasury bonds. The rates on these bets actually plummeted on that day, with the two-year breakeven measure falling to 3.29% from 3.45% and the 10-year rate declining to 2.34%, the lowest point since 2021, according to data compiled by Bloomberg."
    And Consumer surveys show most expect even gas prices to be much lower in the years to come. Most are in fairly good shape economically as long as prices come down
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/13/22
    A thought to hash over. If & when the holders & nibblers get back to even will you cash out & go to something with less risk ? I've started to buy a few CD's, buy just maybe it's time to do some more nibbling. ???
    @Derf - I do not think in terms of “getting back to even.” Why would you pick an arbitrary starting point (ie 3 months back, 1 year back) and than feel somehow beholden to it? Investing is a long term process (if not life long). I suspect you and many others here have been very successful investing over many years.
    To the question of adding risk incrementally during less expensive markets and than taking it off the table when the plate overfills, that’s pretty much been standard operating procedure with me for decades. If you try to remember that you are buying companies that you believe have good long term prospects based on current valuations as well as a modicum of hard assets that might protect you during a prolonged price spiral, than you don’t worry much about “loosing” money over 1 or 2 years.
    I think a lot of traditional investment maxims have been thrown out the window by a great many investors over recent years … some of them coming home to bite now.
    - Don't invest in stocks if you’re going to need the money in less than 5-10 years,
    - Diversify broadly across asset classes and geopolitical regions,
    - Stay away from highly levered products or ones that you don’t fully understand,
    - Keep a healthy cash reserve so you don’t need to sell more volatile assets during times of stress,
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/13/22
    There have been days when I thought people were throwing the baby out with the bathwater (i.e., capitulating), at least with respect to certain corners of the market, but I've been wrong thus far. After years during which my personal rate of inflation far outran the official numbers I'm now finding that those numbers are exceeding my cost of living increases (I'm paying more for gas and food but not rent, a mortgage refinance, a new or used car, etc.). Pretty soon it looks like returns on my cash could be catching up with what my mortgage is costing me in interest (2.75%). I've been dribbling money in, to absolutely no positive effect thus far. So, bringing this all back to the OP, I'm in the "bearish" sentiment category also.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/13/22
    I didn’t want to start a separate thread, so hope no one minds by adding some possibly related thoughts … (2)
    - Maybe I’m naive, but I’m sensing some kind of capitulation in the broader equity markets just staring at the numbers, including a 600 point early morning downdraft in the DJI today. Personally, I’ve been adding bits and pieces across the board to various types of equity holdings, including a recent stake in ARKK. Albeit, I may be completely wrong. Furthermore, even should the markets stop or slow their rapid decent, there’s no assurance they won’t later fall much further.
    - I spoke to an acquaintance yesterday who has been retired 10 years with no pension. Surviving on Social Security. Little in savings. Owns a home. Not a very prudent course financially of course! However, did very well managing $$ during the past decade of inflation (0-3% as measured by the CPI). Individual is utterly “lost” in this new era of 8-9% inflation. Have to feel for folks like that. Perhaps this anecdote relates to the “Sentiment Index” in some small way.
  • Mid-Year CG Distributions
    That is so true! Last year was bad for large cap growth funds with large capital gain distribution. In some case even they have a negative return year. Index funds would be a better option for taxable account. I have done that several years ago.
  • Amazing / TROW down nearly 40% YTD
    Only fund from TRP we have owned for about 20 years is TRAIX. I've paid very little attention to it now.