@msf - First, thank you for your detailed response and for all the dedicated work you do at MFO. Folks are fortunate for your labors.
I believe that you and others are making lots of assumptions. Nothing wrong with that. So far, over the past 3 or more years the Fed has raised the overnight lending rate by 25 basis points. That’s the fact. The bond markets, however, have gone into hysteria.
If there was an easy way for me to reap that 7% reward on I Bonds (more like 5% if you cash out early) I’d do it. But I’m not willing to upset my “perfectly balanced” apple cart (forgive the exaggeration) by selling a long-term holding just because it’s off 6% this year and something else offers a short term guaranteed return.
I’d never argue that PRIHX is as safe as I-Bonds. Just that it already has a well thought out place in the portfolio. I’ve owned it for several years. It’s run very conservatively (reason it scores poorly by M* standards). I have so much confidence in it I recently took advantage of the (likely overdone) sell-off this year by tossing in a chunk of household cash that won’t be needed for six months or longer.
Frankly, to earn 5% on $10,000 isn’t going to move the needle very much for me. I’d rather dwell on the riskier portions of the portfolio. Those include 3 individual stocks, a gold mining fund, 2 nation specific funds (invested in Japan and Norway), both market neutral and long-short funds, a global bond fund, plus a half dozen broadly based equity funds. That’s where my “investment brain” is normally focused. Those are the investments that move the needle for me and, working together, achieve the balance I desire in the portfolio.
On a lighthearted “sour” note, I do believe the recent clamor by every Tom, Dick & Harry to “scoop up” those hot 7% (err ... 5%) I Bonds is one reason my own PRIHX and most other short - intermediate term bond funds have suffered this year. Yikes - hot money has been fleeing ... :)
Re: “Would you expect bonds of any sort (aside from Treasuries) to go up then, or aside from a possible flight to quality?”
@msf - I suspect your intended inference here is correct. But I don’t want to own only investments I “expect” to do well. I like it when some things rise while others fall. And get nervous when everything is rising all at once. The future is impossible to predict. But there certainly are a few experienced market observers predicting falling rates longer term. That’s not my belief - but it’s out there along with every other possibility.

Savings bonds don't have to be held for years. One can cash them out after a year if one wants. At current rates they'll still net 5%+, which is still "kind of like giving candy away".
"Withdrawals, both the anticipated and the unexpected, come out of the whole investment pot."
The usual expectation is that one won't cash out (withdraw) 100% of one's portfolio within a year. Given that expectation, there's going to be some money, say at least $10K, that will remain in fixed income investments for a year.
For that $10K that we know isn't going to be withdrawn, it's hard to find a better place to keep it than in I-bonds. There's a guaranteed 5%+ rate of return, which is more than one hopes for this year with most fixed income investments. Then there's the guarantee that one won't lose principal (no interest rate risk). And as an added bonus, no credit risk.

:) Must be tough not knowing what to do with an extra $1M ...
I’ve stayed away from this vehicle not wanting to restrict my fixed income investments in any way. Probably dumb on my part, as 7% today is kind of like giving candy away. But I value the simplicity and flexibility of having that money available for other investment at any time. And, to an extent, more traditional bonds / bond funds help provide an element of portfolio balance.
ISTM the 7% I Bond is ideal for those who maintain several years’ anticipated expenses separate from their more aggressive portfolio. I’ve never done that. Withdrawals, both the anticipated and the unexpected, come out of the whole investment pot.

Doubled down on DKNG at $16.50. To make room, sold CVSIX. Moved GLDB from spec position into fixed income sleeve. With the 10 year above 2.7% I believe longer dated higher rated corporates (GLDB) are beginning to look attractive as offsets to a possible market selloff as well as for generating a stream of income. Increased weighting of TAIL (defensive) slightly to around 7%.
Every “advisor / market expert” and his brother is expecting a recession unless the Fed eases up on the brakes. Predicted time of onset range from 6 months to 2 years out. One early hint, home sales are falling off. Enjoying all the comments above. Noted @Mark bought some Medtronic. +1

April 9th Episode:

The new era of higher inflation and interest rates is already proving to be a challenging one for investors. The first quarter of 2022 was the worst one in two years for the stock market. Inflation reached 40 year highs, and in response, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2018 and is signaling an aggressive policy of multiple rate hikes in the months ahead.
Then there are all the other disturbing and disruptive developments to consider: the extended impact of Covid on global growth, supply chain problems, Russia’s unprovoked war against Ukraine, and aggressive actions from China, North Korea, and Iran.
How to navigate these challenges as investors is the job of this week’s guest. She is an influential strategist, Savita Subramanian who has two leading roles at BofA Global Research. She is Head of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Research, the first in that position, and the Head of U.S. Equity and Quantitative Strategy.

@Puddnhead: HC has disappointed in last 2 years. I watch RYH and a couple of select biotech stocks to try to detect positive sentiment in HC and I finally see some upward momentum. (Mentioning it will surely kill any rally.)

Hi BenWP,
Good for you. I'm a Ron fan just like I was a Michael Price fan years ago. BCHCX was on my buy list but with healthcare slowing the last 2 years, I did not buy. But did add to FSMEX and FSPHX and am waiting for a pop in healthcare. Will add to BWBFX on weakness. And I like owning funds others don't want, especially young funds because they tend to run with good managers.
God bless
the Pudd

And a world-wide perspective via NPR:
Global food prices hit their highest recorded levels last month, driven up by the war
Excerpts from that report:

A United Nations agency says the war in Ukraine sent food commodity prices soaring in March to the highest levels it has ever recorded.
The Food and Agriculture Organization announced on Friday that its FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a "basket of commonly-traded food commodities," averaged 159.3 points in March. That's up 12.6% from February, which already saw the highest level since the organization began tracking in 1990. It's also 33.6% higher than it was last March.
Russia and Ukraine collectively accounted for about 30% of global wheat exports and 20% of maize exports over the last three years, the organization said, with conflict-related export disruptions in both countries prompting a surge in global prices of wheat and coarse grain. The FAO Cereal Price Index was 17.1% higher in March than it was in February.
"The expected loss of exports from the Black Sea region exacerbated the already tight global availability of wheat," the organization added. "With concerns over crop conditions in the United States of America also adding support, world wheat prices rose sharply in March, soaring by 19.7 percent."
It also notes that Ukraine is the world's leading exporter of sunflower seed oil, and says the rising prices of sunflower seed oil and crude oil raised the prices of other vegetable oils, like palm, soy and rapeseed. Altogether, the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index rose 23.2% in a month.

@yogibearbull : The bigger question , IMO, can one exchange I-bonds or must you sell & then buy. That would leave one with $10K in I-bonds over two years instead of a total of $20K.
Thanks, Derf

@racqueteer, for I-Bonds, the new inflation rate will apply to existing bonds with some delay. The rate cycle starts with 6 months at the "current rate" from the purchase date, then another 6 months for the "new" rate, and so on. Think of it as applying rates with a phase shift. So, it doesn't make sense to trade old I-Bonds UNLESS the fixed rate changes significantly and inflation rate also remains high.
EE-Bonds are different. The rate at the time of purchase is locked in for 30 years and that rate is a terrible 0.10%. But EE Bonds are guaranteed to DOUBLE on 20 years + 1 day, so that is one-time realized rate of 3.53% annualized (if held for 20 years + 1 day). I don't recommend new EE Bonds although the old pre-2005 bond are OK to hold to maturity.

@Crash and @Puddnhead et al
New Canadian budget to add tax burden to banks/insurance companies for 5 years.
Before one gets into a huff about this (taxes)..........during the pandemic, the Canadian gov't. provided back stops for these institutions.....now is repay time. The article explains the circumstances.
I haven't a clue as to how this will affect profit performance going forward for the banks/insurance companies.

@Sven FICDX. upside: 120. Downside 86. (On Morningstar, the low-medium-high RISK slide rule is missing. "Insufficient data.") The only peer that Morningstar offers for comparison is Matthews Korea. That's pretty nuts.
EWC = +5.84%. (10 years.). oops, that's annualized. It's +76.45% cumulative.
Note: the top two holdings in FICDX and EWC are the same: Royal Bank of Canada and Toronto Dominion Bank. (TD, in the States.) FICDX owns MORE. Combined, they are 20.42% of total portfolio. That actually makes sense to me. As Danielle Park said many years ago: "Canada still primarily sells rocks and trees to the rest of the world." The big exception is the biggest 6 banks, and the biggest FIVE, in particular.
CM, BMO, TD, RY, BNS. They operate pretty much with monopoly power. ...... But remember this: "When the U.S. catches a cold, Canada gets the flu."

I view savings bonds as most closely comparable to 1 year CDs, because the savings bonds are locked up for 12 months (actually as little as 11+ 1 day).
After that, while it is true that like longer term CDs, savings bonds may be redeemed early with penalty, the two are not very comparable.
CDs are yielding so much less than I bonds that even after subtracting out the penalty on an I bond early redemption, one still comes out ahead. One might as well think of the I bond as a one year savings bond yielding 5%+. At that rate it has "no penalty" and still looks better.
But it gets worse for the CDs. Typically, brokered CDs (e.g. from Schwab, Fidelity, etc.) cannot be redeemed, though there may be a small secondary market for them. Even if that market exists, with rising rates, one will still lose out. OTOH, if rates fall, longer term (e.g. 5 year) brokered CDs tend to be callable. With brokered CDs, heads one loses, tails one loses.
CDs offered through banks tend to have higher withdrawal penalties for longer term maturities. This is another reason why I prefer to compare savings bonds with 1 year CDs.
Marcus Bank has a typical penalty schedule: 90 days interest on one 1 year CDs, and 180 days on CDs up to and including 5 years. Ally Bank is a bit better, charging just 60 days for CDs up to and including 2 years, 90 days for CDs more than 2 years up to and including 3 years, 120 days for CDs up to 4 years, and 150 days for CDs of 4 years or more.
Baseball_Fan mentioned taxes. Interest on CDs is taxable annually (even if you leave it in the CD), unless the CD is for a term of one year or less. Taxes on savings bonds are deferred until redemption (unless you elect to recognize interest annually). Thus only CDs of one year or less get the same tax treatment (deferred until maturity) as savings bonds.

Only if cashing them after 12 months - you are totally locked in for 12 months, and then 3-mo penalty within 5 years.
Cash early in the month to get interest for the WHOLE month.
If you mean getting only the interest, then the answer is NO. You have to cash them partially electronically, or cash paper bonds in chunks.
These restrictions are the reasons that I suggest that I-Bonds be compared with 5-yr CDs (the best national rate is only 1.79%).
BTW, my guess is that those sitting on the fences may find the new I-Bond rate on May 1 too good to pass up. Don't hold me to it but MY guess is 8.8% (up from the current 7.12%).

There is a 3 month penalty for cashing Savings Bonds within 5 years. So, you should start to see interest posted AFTER 3 months. Don't worry, Uncle Sam is not stiffing you for interest (-:).

So, finally opened Treasury Direct Accounts (much easier than the last time I did so years ago) and bought I bonds for wife and I. When can I expect to see earned interest in my account on Treasury Direct? Thanks!

Tough to find actual peers, but it would not be too freaky to look at a CANADIAN-market Index fund, I suppose. In other news: a random walk through the park shows me the following:
VPADX. Vang. Pacific. (10 years) +88.59%
PRWCX. TRP. +224.02%
MAKOX. +97.51%
PRLAX. -4.98%
PRMSX. +46.66%
IRL. +13.49%
There's a link on this page to a full list of closed-end funds trading in Toronto. But when I click on it, it downloads to my computer rather than just OPENING. That's perfect. THAT way, the list is utterly lost and in the midst of oblivion somewhere.
https://www.tsx.com/listings/listing-with-us/sector-and-product-profiles/closed-end-funds

FICDX. +100% in 10 years. Anyone own that fund and can gloat to the rest of us?

I have been a food buyer in the grocery business for forty years. Currently our average case cost is up 13.9% year over year with more price increases coming everyday. If the current tend continues look for a 20% or more food inflation this year.

This does not bother me at all in terms of whether the guy is a competent and professional investment manager. One bad event in 1997? You're making many assumptions to say he "lied about it" over 20 years later. The charge was downgraded to a non-felony. The application in question asked for whether he was "charged" with a felony and he should have checked yes. I have a buddy (lawyer) who made the exact same mistake on his Fla. bar application. In his mind over 2 decades later he remembered the event and what the final result was, not the initial charge. The Fla bar tortured this guy mercilessly even though he was a practicing lawyer for years elsewhere with no issues.