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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • EXTREMELY late TRP tax documents just arrived, 21st March.
    I left TRP for the reason cited earlier by @BaluBalu. I’’d shut down a P.O. box used over the years for secure mailings and had switched my settings at TRP to “paperless.” But for months they continued to mail out account statements and other documents addressed to my home - all the while assuring me they weren’t doing it. Our carrier sometimes drops off mail in the wrong party’s box. Most of my neighbors are decent (and would have forwarded the envelopes to me), but one isn’t. I really don’t care to have my investments open to unknown others or the public.
    So after months of calling and berating TRP to no avail (and goosing my BP), I moved it all to Fidelity. Couldn’t be happier. Unexpectedly, I’m dollars ahead for the move as well - now that I have so many new investment options beyond TRP’s OEFs at the time. The final insult arrived when the first paper check TRP mailed out to Fido on my behalf “bounced”. Funny today - but caused a lot of aggravation at the time! Landed me a 90-day trading suspension!
    Fidelity is top-notch. None better to deal with IMHO.
  • EXTREMELY late TRP tax documents just arrived, 21st March.
    I've had to mail a bunch of 'sensitive' documents around the country recently. I setup an account with pirateship.com and am using UPS envelopes to send them. For $10 I can overnight to NYC. For $20 I can 2-day something to the west coast. (It'd be $50 going to their store or Staples)
    Based on their own track record of deteriorating service in recent years, I don't trust USPS anymore for anything important.
  • EXTREMELY late TRP tax documents just arrived, 21st March.
    TRP’s retail client interface has been a wreck for many years now. Guess I’m fortunate in that Fidelity had everything I needed ready to download sometime in January.
  • Bonds Holding Up, But Playbook Is Changing
    @Observant1, the recent Barron’s article on Ivascyn and Murata’s PIMIX also describes their move to higher quality debts (he likes agency and mortgage-backed bonds) and reduced junk bonds. Additionally, moving from 0.8 to 4.7 years in duration is due ti the flattening yield curve. Here is an excerpt from yogibb,
    FUNDS. Ivascyn (and Murata) of multisector giant PONAX / PIMIX are loading up on agency MBS and TIPS but reducing exposure to corporates, nonagency MBS (a Pimco specialty) and HY. Credit spreads are tight, stocks are (still) expensive, so it's focusing on credit quality. The yield-curve is almost flat. He doesn’t expect high inflation or recession and has increased Fund duration a bit. Fund is well positioned for 5-yr timeframe and has a generous distribution. It’s unclear how (or, if) the Administration will calibrate policies with economic data and market signals. (etf cousin is PYLD, riskier CEF cousins are indefinite-term PDI and limited-term PDO, PAXS.) (By @LewisBraham at MFO).
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/top-bond-fund-manager-buying-now-2168a117?refsec=funds&mod=topics_funds
    The article showed the sector changes over 4 years.
  • Lipper Names CrossingBridge "Best Fixed Income Small Fund Family Group"
    I took a quick peek at BIEAX.
    There have been three years since 2015 where the fund's corresponding category and index had losses.
    BIEAX outperformed both on all three occasions.
    However, the fund did suffer a 2.05% loss in 2020 while the calendar/index gained less than 1%.
    Three of the portfolio managers have over 15 years tenure on the strategy (BIEAX inception date: 01/31/2011).
    The fund generated top decile returns for the trailing 3 year, 5 year, and 10 year periods according to M*.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/bieax/performance
    Edit/Add: I almost forgot that Brandes International Equity was featured in a recent Barron's article.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/top-stocks/international-stocks-are-beating-the-u-s-how-one-fund-is-playing-it/ar-AA1Bdcw6
  • Trump awards Boeing contract to build next-generation US fighter jet

    just read a compelling analysis stating this was to preserve both a 2nd source for fighters, and to preserve a big group of critical skills/workers in a sector needed in-nation.
    i.e., had lockheed been a long-failing company due to its own actions, they would have gotten the rescue. trump probably lost interest after the f47 naming.
    in the long run, this will not boost boeing without displaying years of improved execution. lots of analogies to intel.
  • Munis’ Tax-Exempt Status Could Be at Risk

    yep, posted in 2024, been adding to since then, hoping it remains under the radar :
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/63101/tax-free-u-s-bond-market-and-gop-control-for-2-4-years#latest
    could be a bad idea anyway w/inflation...which a very large group of dolts expect as 0% !
    nothing outside long global recession could be farther from reality.
    image
  • CDs and Money Markets
    Just bought a new replacement window with solid wood frame identical to one purchased from same dealer in February 2018 - just over 7 years ago.
    Price in February 2018 with 3-day promised delivery $400
    Price today with 6-week estimated delivery $675
    Increase $275
    Percent of increase about 65%
    Divided by 7 (years) = about 9.25% per year
    Bottom line - 4.5% on mm accounts probably isn’t going to protect your savings against inflation - at least in the housing / construction / materials sectors.
    Not trying to steal your thread @dtconroe. But I think any discussion of “return” needs to consider the impact of inflation.
    Thanks for the ”cheery” commentary @msf / One wonders what current or former Fox News host may end up running the FDIC and “protecting” our savings - - Bartiromo?
  • ECB’s Lane Backs Digital Euro to Avoid Rising Stablecoin Risks
    Hi Rick,
    IMO, people's assessment of cause and effect are backwards in this case.
    Trump agenda (succeed or fail) points to a weaker dollar. I expect USD to be lower three years from now. For a society addicted to catchy phrases (so they do not have to process), "strong dollar" has become a slogan leaders pitch and people eat up but really what the administration would shoot for is a stable dollar and not a strong dollar.
    ***********
    As to realignment, we have elections every two years. You will need a few successive elections to go in a specific policy direction for a re(or mis)alignment to take hold. Somethings that have been evolving for the last 8-10 years are somewhat irreversible. But then there are other things that are ideas and have not yet taken root in the society. Whether these ideas take root or not depends on who is providing leadership and not just leaders.
    If there is a Democratic party equivalent of Project 2025, please share the link. I want to read.
    As you know, if the general public knows about something happening for the last 8-10 years means the DC apparatus (does not matter the party affiliation) has been at it for much longer. As an example, I helped my ex-employer in 2018 to exit China by divesting their Chinese business to a global Chinese company.
    We have 800 military bases (of all sizes and kinds) in 80 different countries. Has there been a significant reduction of those (not counting Afghanistan) in the last 8-10 years or is there a firm expectation of significant reduction in them? Watch this metric. Closing USAID is not it. Reciprocal Tariffs is not it. We have to separate / distinguish evolutionary from revolutionary changes.
    I am just concerned that we in this forum consume way too much of what the media and whoever (e.g., Think Tanks) wants us to consume. (I am aware that this forum, more than any other investing forum I had ever visited, has a large group that does not rely on stock investments to meet their retirement (sustenance or charitable) goals and they can afford pursuits other than investing.)
    Good weekend.
  • ECB’s Lane Backs Digital Euro to Avoid Rising Stablecoin Risks
    @rforno asked- "Are we heading toward some kind of inflection point and global realignment in the coming years?"
    I've been telling my wife: history shows infrequent but sometimes seismic shifts in the general order of the world every so often. I think that we are on the cusp of such an event.
  • ECB’s Lane Backs Digital Euro to Avoid Rising Stablecoin Risks
    Rick,
    You are close to the subject matter expert we have here and so help us understand.
    How would having a separate CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) help in getting away from USD?
    Both EURO and USD are already mostly 0s and 1s. China said they will develop a CBDC during Trump 1.0 and I have not seen anything yet from them.
    The US FED spent a lot of time thinking about developing a separate CBDC and nothing came of it. I think it was a pet project of Lael Brainard and as far as I know the Republican Congress wants it killed and Powell is eager to oblige. With the crypto President in charge for the next four years, the US project will be on ice if not killed permanently.
    I still do not understand why a CBDC is necessary.
  • Lipper Names CrossingBridge "Best Fixed Income Small Fund Family Group"
    Artisan is usually conscientious regarding mutual fund capacity management.
    ARTKX closed to most new investors in 2007, reopened in 2009, and then closed again in 2011.
    The fund briefly reopened in March 2020 but was subsequently soft-closed in June 2021.
    M* places ARTKX in the Foreign Large Blend category.
    The fund has generated top decile returns for the trailing 3 year, 5 year, 10 year, and 15 year periods.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/artkx/performance
    Edit/Add¹:
    "The strategy's asset base of USD 46.6 billion as of September 2024 was sizable,
    but its long-term orientation, large-cap emphasis, and quality focus help alleviate concerns.
    In recent years, the team has suppressed some holdings information to protect liquidity
    when it's entering and exiting positions.
    And finally, the fact that this group no longer supports the USD 29.4 billion Artisan Global Value
    strategy gives the team more leeway than it had before the 2018 team split."

    ¹ M* take on ARTKX asset base size
  • Trump awards Boeing contract to build next-generation US fighter jet
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The Guardian:
    New aircraft, to be called F-47, is intended to operate alongside drones
    Donald Trump on Friday awarded Boeing the contract to build the US air force’s most sophisticated fighter jet, handing the company a much-needed win.
    The Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program will replace Lockheed Martin’s F-22 Raptor with a crewed aircraft built to enter combat alongside drones. The plane’s design remains a closely held secret, but would probably include stealth, advanced sensors and cutting-edge engines.
    The Seattle-based company beat out Lockheed Martin for the deal. Shares of Boeing were up 5% after the news. Lockheed’s shares fell nearly 6%. Reuters reported Boeing’s victory before the official announcement.
    For Boeing, the win marks a reversal of fortune for a company that has struggled on both the commercial and defense sides of its business. It is a major boost for its St Louis, Missouri, fighter jet production business. The engineering and manufacturing development contract is worth more than $20bn. The winner will eventually receive hundreds of billions of dollars in orders over the contract’s multi-decade lifetime.
    NGAD was conceived as a “family of systems” centered around a sixth-generation fighter to counter adversaries such as China and Russia.
    Boeing’s commercial operations have struggled as it attempts to get its bestselling 737 Max jet production back up to full speed, while its defense operation has been weighed down by underperforming contracts for mid-air refueling tankers, drones and training jets. Cost overruns at the KC-46 mid-air refueling tanker program have surpassed $7bn in recent years, while another fixed-price contract to upgrade two Air Force One planes has created a $2bn loss for the top-five US defense contractor.
    Lockheed, which was recently eliminated from the competition to build the navy’s next-generation carrier-based stealth fighter, faces an uncertain future in the high-end fighter market after the loss.
    The billionaire and presidential adviser Elon Musk has voiced skepticism about the effectiveness of crewed high-end fighters, saying cheaper drones were a better option.
    While Lockheed could still protest against the award to Boeing, the fact Trump announced the deal in a high-profile Oval Office press conference could reduce the possibility of a public airing of arguments against the agreement from the defense firm based in Bethesda, Maryland.
    Comment: There is speculation that the aircraft was named the F47 because a $47 Billion dollar contract overrun is expected.
  • ECB’s Lane Backs Digital Euro to Avoid Rising Stablecoin Risks
    A growing part of me is witnessing not just day-to-day drama, but sensing potential seismic shifts in the Western World order on things like defense and finance. Moving away from a USD-oriented global payment system may become a thing at some point, maybe? I certainly appreciate the EU's concerns here -- and as I recall, China, India, et.al. were exploring/developing a regional currency to diversify some away from the USD several years ago. (We're already seeing the EU ramp up its defense expenditures, and Canada leapfrogging the US in obtaining bleeding edge systems.)
    Are we heading toward some kind of inflection point and global realignment in the coming years?
    Per BBG....
    Europe needs a digital currency to safeguard against threats from new forms of money like stablecoins, and reduce reliance on US payments firms amid heightened political tensions, European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane said.
    A digital euro would “limit the likelihood of foreign-currency stablecoins gaining a foothold as a medium of exchange in the euro area,” Lane told a conference in Cork, Ireland. “The digital euro is not just about making sure our monetary system adapts to the digital age. It is about ensuring that Europe controls its monetary and financial destiny, against a backdrop of increasing geopolitical fragmentation.”
    European interest in the stablecoin market, which is overwhelmingly tied to the dollar, is “increasing rapidly,” Lane said Thursday. He also highlighted the current dependence on US payment-card providers Visa and Mastercard, as well as technology companies including PayPal, Apple and Google.
    < - >
    Earlier on Thursday, President Christine Lagarde told lawmakers in Brussels that the continent must accelerate progress on a retail and a wholesale digital euro, which would bolster sovereignty and lower vulnerabilities.
    President Donald Trump is alarming European politicians not only with his tariff threats and efforts to strike a peace deal over Ukraine but also by promoting dollar-backed stablecoins worldwide as part of a broader crypto strategy.
  • T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Fund
    Bank loan funds are lagging money market this year. So does high yield bonds. They had their run in the last several years. Think it is time to go higher quality and perhaps venture into longer duration.
    PRWCX typically has 8-10% invested in bank loans, double digit in treasury and cash. It would be wise to watch them closely.
  • Lipper Names CrossingBridge "Best Fixed Income Small Fund Family Group"
    I quickly scanned the list of 2025 Lipper Fund Awards.
    The "best" funds (10 years) in the International Large-Cap Core, International Large-Cap Growth,
    and International Large-Cap Value stood out as being very good funds I was somewhat familiar with.
    They are MFS International Equity Fund, WCM Focused International Growth Fund,
    and Artisan International Value Fund respectively.
    I'll need to examine this list further.
  • Lipper Names CrossingBridge "Best Fixed Income Small Fund Family Group"
    @sma3,
    The following information may be helpful.
    Lipper Ratings for Consistent Return
    Introduction
    The Consistent Return measure is a richer risk-adjusted
    performance measure than others currently available in the
    marketplace. It takes into account both short- and long-term
    risk-adjusted performance relative to fund classification.
    The measure is based on the Effective Return computation.
    Effective Return is a risk-adjusted return measure that looks
    back over a variety of holding periods (measured in days,
    weeks, months, and/or years).
    Calculation and Rating
    Lipper ratings for Consistent Return reflects funds’ historical
    risk-adjusted returns, relative to peers. Ratings for Consistent
    Return are computed for all Lipper classifications with five or
    more distinct portfolios and span both equity and fixed-income
    funds (e.g., large-cap core, General U.S. Treasury, etc.). The
    ratings are subject to change every month and are calculated
    for the following periods: three-year, five-year, ten-year, and
    overall. The overall calculation is based on an equal-weighted
    average of percentile rankings of the Consistent Return metrics
    over three-, five-, and ten-year periods (if applicable). The highest
    20% of funds in each classification are named Lipper Leaders for
    Consistent Return, the next 20% receive a rating of 4, the middle
    20% are rated 3, the next 20% are rated 2 and the lowest 20%
    are rated 1.
    Lipper Leaders Methodology PDF
  • Lipper Names CrossingBridge "Best Fixed Income Small Fund Family Group"
    "The highest Lipper Leader for Consistent Return (Effective Return) value within each eligible classification determines the fund classification winner over three, five, or 10 years."
    Methodology PDF
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/19/25
    Thanks Yogi. Interesting. What I can’t tell from the numbers is how far out the time horizon is in these surveys - assuming there is one?
    Conceivably, one might be bullish near term (1-3 months out), but bearish longer term (3, 5, 10 years or more). Or conversely, bearish near term and bullish longer term. Let us hope 25 year olds aren’t selling their long term retirement holdings (or ceasing to invest) based on which way the wind is blowing at any given moment.
  • Vanguard International Explorer
    James Anderson (Ballie Gifford) retired from VWIGX / VWILX in 2022. Fund has a concentrated growth strategy that is hard to replicate, so the new team has to prove itself. Now it lags indexed VTIAX / VXUS for 1, 2, 3 years with higher volatility.
    Vanguard has been tinkering with VINEX for a long time and this is just the latest. Ballie Gifford was probably let go because of its inconsistent concentrated-growth strategy.