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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • ASTON/River Road Independent Value Fund holdings as of 1-31-12 - Yikes!
    Howdy msf,
    Thank you for your continued efforts in presenting the facts and details related to the financial and investment areas. All here are much the wiser from your work.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • "Breaking News" on Fairholme Positions (just posted)
    "SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Fairholme Capital Management's Bruce Berkowitz scaled back exposure to financial and telecommunications companies during the fourth quarter, according to a regulatory filing submitted Tuesday."
    > When you go from over $21B at the beginning of the year (2011) to under $8B in assets by the end of the year (in fact they are at $7.4B now) --- you've got to (or actually forced to) scale back your positions especially if you want to keep at least some cash buffer space as that all got completely depleted from redemptions.
  • this bill gross-managed cef is risky, but... plus a couple of reads
    http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=536868
    budget alarm unnerved muni bond market
    http://www.onwallstreet.com/news/muni-bond-market-reacts-to-obama-budget-proposal-2677358-1.html?ET=onwallstreet:e5807:2131761a:&st=email&utm_source=editorial&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=OWS_Daily__021412
    when bond ETPs don't make distributions
    http://etfdb.com/2012/when-bond-etps-dont-make-distributions/
    is there a bubble in dividend ETFs
    http://www.etftrends.com/2012/02/is-there-a-bubble-in-dividend-etfs/?utm_source=iContact&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ETF Trends&utm_content=
    RBC wealth investment weekly commentary:
    RBC Wealth Management
    Michael D. Ruccio, AAMS
    Senior Vice President
    25 Hanover Road
    Florham Park, NJ 07932-1407
    (p) (866) 248-0096
    (f) (973) 966-0309
    [email protected]
    www.rbcwm-usa.com
    Market Week: February 13, 2012
    The Markets
    Concerns about whether Greece would fulfill the conditions necessary to obtain a second bailout brought on the first down week of 2012 for the domestic equities indices (except for the Dow, which had a down week in late January). Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields remained relatively stable as investors continued to seek out bonds.
    Market/Index 2011 Close Prior Week As of 2/10 Week Change YTD Change*
    DJIA 12217.56 12862.23 12801.23 -.47% 4.78%
    Nasdaq 2605.15 2905.66 2903.88 -.00% 11.47%
    S&P 500 1257.60 1344.90 1342.64 -.17% 6.76%
    Russell 2000 740.92 831.11 813.33 -2.14% 9.77%
    Global Dow 1801.60 1976.98 1964.70 -.63% 9.05%
    Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0 bps 0 bps
    10-year Treasuries 1.89% 1.97% 1.96% -1 bps 7 bps
    *Equities data reflect price changes, not total return.
    Last Week's Headlines
    Greece's coalition government reached an agreement on austerity measures needed to receive the second bailout from its peers, and at the insistence of the eurozone's finance ministers, the agreement was approved by the full Greek parliament. To protest the measures, Greece's unions called a 48-hour strike over the weekend and demonstrators took to the streets.
    Five major banks will pay $26 billion to settle a suit by 49 state attorneys general and federal officials over faulty foreclosure procedures, and nine other financial institutions are also in negotiations over the same issue. According to the agreement, $17 billion will be used over the next three years to assist homeowners, and 60% of that amount will help reduce principal on qualifying mortgages.
    According to the Commerce Department, higher imports of autos, auto parts, and industrial machinery helped push the U.S. trade deficit to $48.8 billion, the highest level since June. Imports rose 1.3% while exports were up 0.7%.
    Eye on the Week Ahead
    European economic growth data and Wednesday's meeting of eurozone finance ministers, when final approval of the newest Greek bailout is expected in the wake of last weekend's parliamentary vote, will be a focus of attention. Domestic data on inflation, manufacturing, and housing also will be watched.
    Key dates and data releases: retail sales, business inventories (2/14); Empire State manufacturing survey, industrial production, Federal Open Market Committee minutes, international capital flows (2/15); housing starts, wholesale inflation, Philadelphia Fed survey (2/16); consumer inflation, index of leading economic indicators, options expiration (2/17).
  • Inflation Game Plan / Positioning
    I am curious how people intend on positioning their overall investments / portfolio when inflation (eventually) kicks-in? Inflation may be still off in the distance but once it appears in earnest, it seems it will be hard to stop and am guessing the folks in Washington may not want it stopped.
    Given my relatively novice skill set and experience level, I'm not sure what type of investments (including non-financial) would be prudent to own.
  • Mr. Snowball, WSJ, interview.....LIP
    David - looks like Grandeur Peaks likes what you had to say --- on their website...
    http://www.grandeurpeakglobal.com/
    ...they provide links to David's WSJ interview and glowing review of their fund.
    So far I really like what they have to offer --- their passion for global investing, excitement in starting their own firm, lots of travel and time on the ground to visit companies, their global analyst team and ease of communication with their firm.
    Here's a sample of some stocks mentioned by Grandeur Peaks in their 4th qtr report that they own:
    ====================================================
    Hy-Lok Corporation
    Hy-Lok is a $240 million market cap company based in Busan, South Korea. Hy-Lok generates about $100 million of annual revenue as a global leader in fluid control precision. They make very high-tech fittings and valves, which are distributed across the globe and used in a variety of industries. Founded in 1977, the company has been listed on the KOSDAQ (Korean NASDAQ) since 1989. The stock was
    up 19% in the fourth quarter and contributed 30 basis points to the overall return of Global and 30 basis points to the overall return of International.
    Bertrandt AG
    The Bertrandt Group is a $500 million market cap company based in Ehningen, Germany. Bertrandt generates about $750 million of annual revenue providing outsourced R&D and other services to the automotive and aerospace industries. The company was founded over 35 years ago. The stock was up 25.8% in the fourth quarter and contributed 24 basis points to the overall return of Global and 25 basis points to the overall return of International.
    Banco ABC Brasil
    Banco ABC is a $1.7 billion market cap commercial bank based in São Paulo, Brasil. The bank has about $6 billion in assets and provides a range of financial products and services to medium and large companies in Brazil. It focuses on corporate credit, capital markets, and treasury operations. The stock was up 17.1% in the fourth quarter and contributed 19 basis points to the overall return of Global and
    23 basis points to the overall return of International.
    Tegma Gestao Logistica
    Tegma is a $1.7 billion market cap company based in São Paulo, Brasil. They are one of Brazil's largest logistics management companies, and a leader in the automotive industry. They are experts in providing customized and innovative logistics solutions focusing on three core market segments: the automotive industry, road transport, and warehousing and handling. The stock was up 15.8% in the fourth quarter and contributed 14 basis points to the overall return of Global and 28 basis points to the overall return of International.
    Vitasoy International Holdings
    Vitasoy is a $5.9 billion market cap company based in Hong Kong that was founded in 1940. They are a global leader in soy-based beverages and foods with annual revenues of $500 million. The stock was up 13% in the fourth quarter and contributed 12 basis points to the overall return of Global and 19 basis points to the overall return of International.
  • new fund - Seafarer
    This Bio from M*
    Andrew Foster
    10/31/2006 — 03/21/2011 Andrew Foster is a Portfolio Manager at Matthews International Capital Management, LLC. Andrew joined Matthews in 1998 as a Research Analyst, and has held a number of positions at the firm during his tenure, including Director of Research, and acting Chief Investment Officer. Andrew began his career in Singapore, where he worked as a management consultant in A.T. Kearney’s Financial Institutions Group. He holds an A.B. in Public Policy and a secondary degree in Economics from Stanford and an M.B.A. from INSEAD in France.
    Mr. Foster had an excellent performance at MAPIX,basically in the top 10% for his 4 1/2 years there.
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=MAPIX&region=USA&culture=en-us
  • What constitutes a good money manager?
    Reply to @Anonymous:
    I think most people with the desire and time can absolutely make their own financial decisions.
    In terms of mutual funds, it really depends on your age (as if you're 30, recommendations are going to be a lot different than if you're 60) and desired risk tolerance. There are thousands of mutual funds - while Fidelity and Vanguard have some very good ones, limiting to a couple of companies is well, quite limiting.
  • What constitutes a good money manager?
    Hi there Grover, and welcome to MFO. I think that maybe you need to be more specific with your question. Are you talking about a paid personal money manager who will help you with your personal financial decisions (what funds to choose), or the manager of a well-run mutual fund?
    If the latter, then I think that you'll need to be more specific yet, depending upon the type of mutual fund that you're interested in. Personally, I use American Funds for a variety of reasons, and their funds are run by various managerial teams, to deliberately minimize the "star manager" approach. I don't recommend American Funds though, because they charge a front "load" when you purchase, and there are plenty of other fund families out there who can do just as well for you without that load charge.
    Because we have primarily used American funds, others on this board will be in a much better position to help you, based upon their very considerable experience.
    Additionally, to get the feel of what constitutes good (or bad) fund management, I suggest that you at least skim through David Snowball's commentaries, available by pushing the "Commentary" button at the top of the page.
  • What constitutes a good money manager?
    My wife and I are new to the financial planning world. We are interested in buying a mutual fund and keep finding in our research that a money manager with a good "long-term track record" is very important. Are we talking 5 or 10 (or more) years of good consistent money managing? Specifically, what constitutes a money manager with a good track record?
  • Pimco, Bill Gross and the SEC.....LIP
    Morning Coffee,
    Mr. They Got Other Fish To Fry (me); has a head scratch going with a portion of this write. Regardless of your opinion of Bill Gross, this is an interesting, multi-faceted story regarding Pimco.
    A snippet: "More troubling, U.S. regulators are now considering whether PIMCO should be deemed a "systemically important financial institution" - that is, too big to fail, and thus subject to tighter regulatory oversight. The concern: The juggernaut manages so much money for pension funds that it could hammer the economy if it ever went under. The firm has doubled in size to $1.36 trillion in assets since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008."
    http://www.reuters.com/assets/print?aid=USTRE8180VX20120209
    Regards,
    Catch
  • U.S. Sets Money-Market Plan
    Hi there Hank- No, I can see what you're saying too. The main problem, at least as I understand it, really isn't the individual depositors/investors losing some part of their money. The thing is that the great majority of the money in these funds doesn't just sit around waiting for someone to ask for it back. No, it's used for short-term financing in many parts of the overall commercial, industrial and financial industry... loans to a huge spectrum of business customers who depend upon this source being constantly available for short-term roll-over paper. If this financing source suddenly freezes without warning, many very bad things follow in a very short period of time.
    So the issue seems to be really another manifestation of the "too-big-to-fail" syndrome. Reserve Primary did stupid things, the "average investor" (ie "ignorant investor") didn't wait around to see if it was a localized problem- they saw the possibility of losing their "safe" money, we got a classic "run on the bank", and came very close to precipitating a totally unnecessary national financial panic/shutdown. You know how interrelated all of this major financing apparatus is.
    If the MM funds were simply loaning this money to the gov't and taking gov't paper as security, then the gov't could use the usual smoke and mirrors to take care of the problem. But if for example all of a sudden the auto financing industry, or the credit-card industry (or maybe both) gets shut down without any advance warning (and how the hell would they know about stupid stuff happening at some mutual fund?), who can possibly control what happens next?
    I dunno- maybe we need two types of MM funds- one that's insured, with obviously a lower payout but you get your money when you want it, no questions asked, and one that isn't- a better payout but you take your chances with maybe not being able to grab all of your money when you want it, if something unusual is going on in the financial sector.
    As usual, no easy answers to any of this stuff...
  • missin the rally?
    got this from Financial advisor
    SPECIAL MARKET REPORT
    February 2012
    SHORT TERM VIBRATION:
    It will be difficult for the markets to replicate their January performances in February. After sporting nearly a 7% gain in the first month of 2012, markets are due to take a breather. Because of this, investors should exercise caution in the near term.
    During this recent market rally, the market has seen volatility diminish as well. Currently, the volatility index, which is used by many short term traders, suggests that there is a great deal of complacency in the stock market. The present level is measuring around 16, which is only four points off the all-time low measured a few years ago when the market peaked in 2007 before the big crash.
    This does not suggest a big downturn is in store for the immediate future, but the likelihood of a measurable 5% or greater correction is extremely great. In other words, avoid chasing many of the stocks that have experienced parabolic jumps in this recent market spurt. Remain patient and allow the markets and stocks to settle in at more reasonable levels before taking positions.
    Medium term:
    The present strong market conditions have most money managers wanting to chase stocks in order to hit growth benchmarks. This has initially caused the quick burst seen in January. There is a distinct possibility that stocks will consolidate and potentially pullback in the near term. However, after stocks put in a healthy breather, they may be poised to push a little higher into the end of spring.
    To take advantage of any more upside in this market may require that investors remain selective in what stocks they buy. Most of the big movers in the early part of 2012 were those stocks and sectors that underperformed woefully in 2011. Sectors such as alternative energy, financials and commodities have exhibited extreme strength so far.
    Will that trend continue? It is a question that remains to be answered.
    All markets are sitting near multi-year highs. Meanwhile, we have treasuries also yielding all-time lows. Bonds are in a bubble and gold is within striking distance of taking out all-time highs. This scenario poses an intriguing conundrum for all investors because it is extremely rare to see all asset classes sitting at such lofty levels.
    In other words, something has got to give.
    It would be premature to determine what asset classes will break down and which ones will soar even higher. Investors need to maintain a shorter time frame in holding any of these assets and be willing to trade out of them at the first signs of serious price depreciation. The current mood is suggesting long equities and short treasuries. However, this trade could reverse quickly by the end of the second quarter if Europe continues to stumble and the U.S. economy shows any serious hiccup in its recovery effort. This year the old adage "sell in May and go away" may turn out to be a worthwhile piece of advice worth following.
    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
    Short term indicators suggest equities will remain the place to be, but chasing most of these stocks at present levels may leave some investors being disappointed. If investors have a willingness to remain nimble and can exercise selectivity, the present market rally may continue to offer more gains in equities over the coming three months.
    We believe having a defensive asset allocation in a majority of cash; with some selective fixed income, bonds and principle protected investment instruments may be prove to be a wise pose. This is what we would like to term capital preservation growth --- it is getting the most out of assets with the least amount of risk. This is a key strategy for us as we maintain the markets are at an inflection point as all asset classes are near unsustainable tops. Until it is clear which asset class or classes will emerge with more sustainable upside, we believe exercising caution, remaining nimble and diversifying risk is the way to navigate the present, turbulent investment waters.
    If you would like to receive Monthly Market Newsletters from the Trader's Desk of Jason Shade, please feel free to sign up for free at www.wallstreetstraighttalk.com. You can also access my daily blogs and other complimentary special reports on my site as well. Thank you for your time and feel free to email me if you would like to discuss anything. [email protected]
    Best Regards,
    Jason Shade, Financial Advisor
    Director of Portfolio Management
    Barrington Financial Advisors, Inc,
  • Fairholme Fund Back On Top To Start The Year
    Reply to @scott: Sears up another 7% today!
    I'm also using PFF (iShares US Preferreds ETF) as a more cautious way to get financials exposure as this ETF is packed with financial firms including banks....and I'll gladly take the 6+% yields it produces.
    http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/PFF.htm?fundSearch=true&qt=PFF
  • Fairholme Fund Back On Top To Start The Year
    Huge comeback in Financial stocks not only this year but the past 3 months. Sears is also up 45% YTD.
  • Mr. Snowball, WSJ, interview.....LIP
    Kudos on the WSJ recognition.
    "gather the evidence, assess the evidence, make an argument."
    Allocated some to MAINX. Mr. Snowball's perspicacity and experience make for
    a tough customer to argue with and I've very much been the beneficiary for agreeing.
    How's that go...good judgement comes from experience because experience comes from bad judgement.
    "You've also got to find someone who invests in their fund. Funds in which the managers and directors don't have a substantial personal stake consistently underperform the funds where the managers and the directors put their own money at risk."
    (sub)Prime example--
    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/05/business/an-investment-wipeout-that-didnt-have-to-happen.html?_r=2&ref=business
    In these cases the managers had a substantial personal stake in their unsuspecting clients heart.
    With financial services modus operandi of assymetric informational warfare the customer is always right (in the crosshairs.) Terming the pre-credit debacle activity as dealing with bloodsuckers would be far too kind.
    http://roberthood.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/leeches2.jpg
  • Possibly a very valuable fund site for efficient management of a portfolio.
    Thanks bee this is a good start and I am anxious to use them. Would it not be nice to have a site which embeds your portfolio and sends alerts to you about better opportunities? I guess you can take this to an extreme which would be a revolution
    in money management and would be a financial bonanza for the developer.
    prince
  • Gotcha's with cost basis
    An incredibly frustrating day with Fidelity yesterday - it highlighted lots of potential (for me, real) problems with the way the cost basis tracking is being transitioned from voluntary (funds/brokers voluntarily providing cost basis, usually average cost, as a courtesy) to mandatory.
    To be fair to Fidelity (which ain't easy after yesterday), they had what may have been the best online system for tracking mutual fund lots, costs, trades, prior to this year. And that may have made it even harder for them to comply with IRS requirements going forward.
    Their system still says that once you switch from average cost to specific share, you cannot switch back. But the IRS now requires financial institutions to allow you to switch back and forth via written notification (which may be electronic). Their system used to allow you to trade specific shares regardless of how you had set it up (I recall getting messages like: we don't recognize the shares you're telling us to trade, but hey, it's your neck on the line, go ahead, we'll send you back an acknowledgement). But now, even if you're set up for specific shares (and are selling pre-2012 shares that they don't report), if their records don't match yours, it won't accept the order with the lots you indicate.
    That's not a hypothetical problem. I tried to sell shares in a fund that had been set up years ago for specific shares. I had sold shares in 2007 by specifying which shares, and had received a confirmation with those shares and lots confirmed. Didn't matter - apparently their system had sold the shares FIFO (the confirmation lied). Fidelity readily acknowledged the error, but initially refused to correct it. (A second person in their tax center finally agreed it could be fixed.)
    My takeaway is to be meticulous, to ensure that every financial institution one deals with has the correct records for each share of each fund one owns; that every financial institution has the standing order (default cost accounting, e.g. FIFO, Highest first, average cost, etc.) that one wants. Don't rely on the fact that they're required to take your specific lot instructions when you make a trade (or even after that, up to the time of settlement).
  • Anyone Buying/Selling?
    Reply to @Old_Joe: China/India are more than happy to buy oil from Iran and apparently India has offered to pay for oil with gold.
    "For every action there is a reaction. In other words the US likes to think we severely damaged Iran by forcing them out of the dollar system. But Iran is saying, in effect, ‘Keep your dollars. We have another payment system, it’s called gold.’
    There’s a lot of gold in India and they are willing to exchange that for oil. You don’t need a banking system and you don’t need dollars. So I think the US, by throwing its weight around, may find because they’ve weakened the dollar so badly that people don’t just stand there and take it. So what happened this week was full scale financial war. We’ve cut Iran out of the dollar system and caused hyperinflation in Iran and they’ve responded.
    China is ready to jump into the same game. They have a banking system and it connects to the Russian banking system and Russia has a fair amount of gold. So there could be a whole network among Central Asian countries, China, Russia, India, Iran and others, who say the time has come leave the dollar system completely."
    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/1/27_Rickards__Gold_May_Super_Spike_as_We_See_the_End_of_the_Dollar.html
  • Investors Pulled $28.79 Billion From Stock Funds In December
    US Investors still have a ways to go before their allocations to equities look low historically (where major buying opportunities presented themselves). 1975-1990 household equity allocations were in high 20%s to low 30%s. Now we are still in the low 40%s.
    Who Owns The World's Financial Assets? And Why Are U.S. Households So Fascinated With Stocks?
    http://www.wallstreetrant.com/2012/01/who-owns-worlds-financial-assets-and.html