“We expect a compound annual rate of return of roughly over 40% over the next five years.”
Perhaps her current picks will appreciate by that amount. But - will she have any investors left in her fund by than? Having played around with one of these hot potatos this year (DKNG) all I can say is “Ouch”.
I used to think gold mining funds were volatile!

Looking for some guidance here. As previously mentioned, I hold MSSMX and WAMCX and they have underperformed in 2021: 5.78 and 5.46. I noted @gk3105gklm comment about how he traded out of them as they are “ex champs”. Wondering what prompted that and when?
Running MFO premium for CSMCX FCPGX MSSGX WAMCX and NEAGX and it’s clear that MFO also dropped my two funds to a 1 and 2 rating in 1 year performance. Side Note: Wouldn’t it be great to have MFO alert you when a fund in your watch list or port dropped in overall rating? Valueline did that. Would it be in time or advantageous?
The rating drop was deserved based on this years performance. Sure. These two funds have highest risk in 1 and 3 year as well. 10 yr performance, MFO still doesn’t like MSSGX in terms of overall rating. It’s rated a 2 for 10 yr. I don’t recall that when I first evaluated. 20 year it’s a 5. FWIW: M* ratings based on past performance remain unchanged 5*.
NEAGX is rated 5 for all periods. Wondering why this fund didn’t make my screening process. I’m still reviewing this.
While I’m deciding whether to stay or make a change with these two funds, I’m equally as interested in learning how to better evaluate an exit or change. Not a momentum trader. “Consistent Underperformance” is somewhat subjective, no? Is that 1 year or 2 years if there’s been no change to mgmt or underlying fund strategy change. It could be what @BenWP said… just some bad choices in high flying small caps. What makes me confident that they will correct?

...ya...so in the past couple weeks I rec'd back about a 1/4 of my investment in IQDAX, Infinity Q fund...hopefully within the next 2 years after the lawyers and their firms get paid I get another 1/4 back...if I do, I'll consider myself lucky.
Done learnt an expensive financial investing lesson as my hard lesson was monitized. Alledged fraud by the fund mgr who was "adjusting" the NAVs as he felt was appropriate. Alledgedly.
I still think at the end of two years our, I will have taken less of a hair cut that this dumpster fire of a fund, ARKK etc. Someone commented several months ago, ya, at least Wood isn't a crook and if you lose money with her you lose it legit. True that but net, net, fraud, inexperience, marketing charlatan...your checking acccount and spending power doesn't know.
If rates do go up, and personally I think Powell might try and then all kinds of volatility will happen, her funds will really get smacked...who sung the song..."you, ain't seen nothing yet"....BTO? Bachman Turner Overdrive...baby. baby....ya ain't seen nothin'yet....
Best,
Baseball Fan

https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-09/cathie-wood-says-ark-soul-searching-as-once-stellar-funds-lag?sref=3zYETA5s

The $17.8 billion ARK Innovation ETF has tumbled more than 20% this year, with several of its top holdings like electric-vehicle giant Tesla Inc. and video-streaming platform Roku Inc. down from their peaks. During the same period, the S&P 500 Index climbed about 24%.
“I’ve never been in a market that is up -- has appreciated -- and our strategies are down,” Wood said in a Thursday interview with Bloomberg Television. “That has never happened before.”
Wood says her funds are sticking to their plans even after the rough stretch, and that their models forecast big returns in the next half decade.
“Our strategy is our strategy,” she said. “The opportunity in our strategy is huge right now. We expect a compound annual rate of return of roughly over 40% over the next five years.”
“When we go through a period like this, of course we are going through soul-searching, saying ‘are we missing something?’” she said, adding that in response, Ark has doubled down on its research and modeling.

What does the good book say--pride cometh before...

Usually, I track maximum drawdown across market cycles or other periods of interest, but I found looking by calendar years fun.
Most years, investors in the S&P 500 can expect drawdowns as much as 10%.
More details here.

Climate change is real and extraordinarily dangerous to the future of humanity and the planet itself. Yet this long-short vehicle you mentioned does not sound like a good fund. Part of the reason is the difference in time horizons between Wall Street and a phenomenon like climate change. Wall Street investors are short-sighted and only think at best generally about the next quarter while climate change is a slow moving train wreck that has taken decades to unfold. The private sector is ill-equipped to fight climate change because of its own short-sightedness. A company that might offer a technological solution years down the road with R&D will not receive the patience it needs from Wall Street to deliver that solution. Meanwhile, a company that is actively hurting the planet and could ultimately facilitate its destruction could have a good quarter and thus have strong performance. Neither the long side nor the short side may work here. The better option for investors is to starve the worst offenders of capital while trying to change the less worse offenders via shareholder activism. The best option for citizens is to encourage greater regulation of the private sector to fight climate change and global cooperation in hitting emmission goals. Regarding funds fighting the good fight in climate change, Green Century Balanced (GCBLX) holds no fossil fuels companies and is very active filing resolutions to change companies. It is conservatively managed.

For what it’s worth, we are spending much less in retirement so far than 4% annually. COVID has made it difficult to meet our spending “goals” because it’s so difficult and risky to travel, eat out and participate in other forms of entertainment. In January, I will have been retired 5 years and my wife 7 years, and we have yet to spend one dime of our retirement savings. We’ve been getting by just fine from our pensions, my wife’s social security and modest withdrawals from taxable savings. I’m holding off drawing from my SS because so far we simply haven’t needed it.

Since the start of the Covid pandemic, hospitalizations/deaths follow a wave of infections by about 2 weeks or so. This has happened several times over the past 2 years in the earlier 4 waves. By mid-January, we'll have a pretty good idea of the scope and severity of this most current wave. Since many healthcare facilities are struggling currently with capacity, it may get ugly. The conversations where I live is, don't get sick....with anything. There might not be a bed for you.
So...I'm actually a bit surprised the markets have held up as well as they have given the widespread nature of this most current, the 5th wave. January may be bumpy. I hope not.

SEC/Edgar fund reports (semiannual, annual) would have that info going back several years, but the manual retrieving and analysis process can be cumbersome.
Many funds post holding reports but the new ones replace the old ones.

@bee - Thanks for linking the list of Barry’s mistakes. Nice to see that 2016 was “apparently without any flaws”. I thought it interesting that he makes a big deal about his errant call on BREXIT and related matters. Kind of runs contrary to his stated aversion (Item #2) to making predictions.
I could write a book about all the things I’ve got wrong. Nearly killed the goose with an ill-advised bet on an Oppenheimer commodities fund couple decades ago. And, like some others here, I invested in HSGFX in its early years. Abandoned that one before too much damage was done. Just 2 of many missteps over a 50+ year investing history.
-
PS - I think the hardest lesson for me to learn is not to “double down” on a failing investment. Often that simply compounds the problem. A one-way street!

I suspect we are now beyond the 2020 crash rebound period, and I think we will have to accommodate more rising interest rate impact. I don't have strong predictions about particular funds, but I am expecting bond oefs like IOFIX will come back down to earth and have more "normal" returns.

Today’s 3 cent gain continued a recent pattern of outsized gains one to two trading days before ex dividend date. This is the reverse of the pattern in effect prior to 2020. Their portfolio is trading around 96 cents on the dollar up considerably from the 60 to 80 cents since 2017. So I agree its best days are behind it and thinking 2022 may only see a 4% to 5% total return. Hopefully I am dead wrong. Can’t think of many or any bond fund that had such a stellar return this year. The managers feel the fund has another 25% to 30% before the legacy non agencies play is over. I would probably cut those numbers in half if only because fund managers in general tend to be overly optimistic. Sure has been a unique and special bond fund over the years and if one was able to sidestep the carnage in March 2020 and return the following month.

Thanks. I’ve long held PRPFX as a staple. It’s much more aggressively positioned in equities & metals than what I’m looking for for a bit of play money. HSTRX is a weird bird. Mixing in around 10% gold / pm miners was apparently Hussman’s way of “goosing” returns on what looks like a bond fund on the surface. It hasn’t done badly. I compared it to TMSRX. Think it’s ahead for 3 years.
Probably somebody will open an ETF based on that concept in the future.

@rono,
Your Grandson is lucky to have someone humble like you as a Grandparent. And good on him to be thinking of his future while he's young.
Some thoughts to consider (some mirror what was already stated in other comments):
Start with reading a book like WSJ book of investing. After each chapter is read discuss topic and learnings with Parents or you etc. I found when talking to many young(er) folks at work etc, most don't know how to open a brokerage account, what at Roth IRA is etc.
Open Roth IRA Schwab account. I'd think first about asset allocation. I can virtually guarnatee you that many will advise a young man/person to "be very aggressive when investing at a young age." I say bunk to that. I can virtually gurantee that the first large drawdown, they will sell, go to cash and then avoid the markets if they are too agressive.
I'd start with a 65-35 stocks - cash mix to start with. Get a good education, work hard, get a decent job, stay within your means, don't worry about keeping up with the Jones' and he'll do just fine over time. Stay away from the get rich quick quacks (ARK etc)
I'd consider going with one fund to start with, ARTTX, Artisan Partners Focus Fund. The fund is process oriented, risk aware, can vary between growth/value/blend styles, generally invests in US stocks, fund mgr is very experienced but on the younger side, likely won't be retiring any time soon. ARTTX with the 65% of initial investment, then I bonds with the 35%. Do that over the next 5 years etc. Stay with it.
Also. Young man should stay the F away from any kind of drugs, be careful with the folks he runs with and who his friends are. Think for yourself, don't be brainwashed by social media or what the other Tik Tik sheeple are doing/thinking. Don't gamble. Only have a cocktail on "non-school" evenings. Choose a career path that will be viable, not be able to be automated away, oursourced overseas and that is not locked into a certain geographical area. Choose the right girls to date and the right girl to marry. Choose well.
Only buy a home in a good school district. Never buy a home where in the closest park the basketball rims are bent or missing the nets.
Donate to the local food bank once a quarter. Wouldn't hurt to donate your time a few days a year as well to help others less fortunate.
Good Luck, Good Health to you and your Grandson,
Baseball Fan

Good morning @hank. I was kind of using PRWCX as an example of the simplicity and the decent return you get by just owning a good or a few good balanced funds and holding them for a long time. That always seemed to be your style and over the years I've gravitated to it myself.
Hind sight is 20/20 and I've come to understand that sticking with a good fund, like PRWCX, versus collecting funds or jumping in and out of last years best funds wins in the end. The latter to me is like playing "fantasy football". It's a whole lot of fun. You build a new team of star players every year, dumping a player and "re-drafting" a new hot player during the year. Watching players (or funds) stats in the sports page (or MFO?) Your team at the end of the year often looks different than your original picks. Hind sight is, IMHO, this doesn't work well in investing.
I have about 25% in PRWCX. I could call it my Tom Brady fund because it has lasted and been a winner for many years, but I hate TB for obvious reasons - so I won't :)

Some times I have to laugh at myself for thinking I can do better than these balanced funds by making my "strategic" selections. I can't. I would have been better off over the years just putting everything in PRWCX and maybe a couple others.

While Geroux appears to be perfect genius, I’m not sure PRWCX has been tested in a prolonged bear market (measured in years) since he took the helm or since the fund ballooned to its current
$52.7B size. Depending on time horizon it may or may not be a good idea to have all your eggs in that basket.
Personally, I own it, but have little (5-10%) allocated to it - and have to laugh at myself too. :)
But hindsight is always 20/20.

Hi Ron, Nice to read what you have written about the desires of this young man.
I've pushed Roth IRA's for minors and +18 year olds with our extended family and friends for years. Sadly, few takers for follow up information.
I'm biased towards Fidelity and their quality operation. (wife and I since 1978 with T-IRA's). The online set up is clean and easy, and there are no minimum $ for the vast number of offerings, including active managed Fido funds.
I hand held two mid 30's relatives 2 years ago starting a Roth. They were both a bit more motivated as their mother provided them "seed" money to get their arse's in gear. They have 401k and 403b plans they contribute some money to, but the Roth is a nice extra. They are able to be aggressive (and should be at their age); so all money is invested in QQQ etf.
He has until April 15, 2022 to qualify for a 2021 tax year deposit. The money contribution does not have to be his, so others may help him fund the account.
What we did: We funded (minor Roth, account activation) and still fund our daughters Roth; as she continues with her full time university studies and some part time employment. The Roth is linked to a credit union acct. for easy access; and also includes a taxable brokerage acct. for future use.
The current Roth (Fido acct:) holdings are: FTEC (Fido tech. etf), FBCG (Fido blue chip growth etf) and FSMEX. Additionally, IRS Pub. 590-A should offer info about who may provide funding of a Roth.
I personally remain U.S. centric for our investments, but ACWI is global large cap equity etf at about 60/40, U.S./Global of about 2,200 holdings, if one wants that exposure. There are many other choices in this area for a global spread, if desired.
ACWI holdings
Remain curious,
Catch

Using MFO screener and other sites, its easy enough to pull up a high flyer SC fund called NEAGX . Consistently beats the SPY even in down cycles, is a Great Owl / HR, Sharpe and APR vs Peer keeps improving every year etc.
With a 35.84% YTD return and 45% in 1 year and 40% in 3 years, I was surprised to find only 1 mention of it here in the discussions by @BenWP in a timely moves for 2022 thread: https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/144021/#Comment_144021

I have to ask, how many of us have YTD returns in our portfolios of 17-18%? I do not.
Some times I have to laugh at myself for thinking I can do better than these balanced funds by making my "strategic" selections. I can't. I would have been better off over the years just putting everything in PRWCX and maybe a couple others.