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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Valuation
    @shipwreckedandalone has cited part of David’s dissertation in the March Observer which went live late yesterday. :)
    Here’s the relevant passage: ”The US stock market has a giant problem. ‘Giant’ in the sense that investors have poured money so steadily and so long into a handful of leaders that their valuations are beginning to redefine ‘irrational.’ Jason Zweig notes, ‘Even after the stumble in tech stocks late last month, the Magnificent Seven traded this week at an average of 43.3 times what analysts expect them to earn over the next 12 months” (‘What You Should Do About the Stock Market’s Giant Problem,’ com, 2/7/25).”
    Ummm … I haven’t had trouble finding equity pockets that have held up well the past 3-6 months - even on the worst days. Don’t want to advise people what to buy, but I’d agree with David that foreign markets are less overvalued. Value stocks have turned up - at least for the time being. I’d add that some exposure to foreign currencies might be prudent. They stand to gain if U.S. interest rates fall and the dollar weakens. You can actually do that with some international / global / area specific equity funds if you check to make certain it isn’t hedged 100% back to the U.S. dollar.
    Longer duration bond funds worry me. However in the hands of a good equity or multi-asset manager (like David Giroux) bonds can even-out the ride. For those willing to take a bit of risk in fixed income, you can improve your return (and increase your potential losses) with CEFs that use leverage. M* does a decent job indicating the amount of leverage the fund uses along with the historical and current discount / premium to NAV. Do your homework before you jump. I’m currently using WEA, BWG, TEI. (With CEFs there is strength in numbers as they are very volatile.)
    I agree with comments in The Observer that short term fixed income is somewhat attractive at 4 - 4.5% That’s an area where I’m willing to “reach” a bit for yield (JAAA / VNLA) knowing full well the idea is riskier than just sitting in a money market fund. I can’t recall a lot of discussion about junk bonds in the commentary, but I’d be very cautious there, Tight spreads now suggest that the premium return paid by junk over investment grade bonds is very small by historical standards. There will be better days ahead to buy junk. All in all, a broadly diversified portfolio that side-steps the hottest sectors would seem a prudent choice if your time horizon is in the 5-10 year range. Of course, if you are 21 and socking $$ away for 50 years down the road you may want to throw caution to the wind.
  • Valuation
    ...."the Magnificent Seven traded this week at an average of 43.3 times what analysts expect them to earn over the next 12 months” .......imagine you bought a business and paid cash with your life savings in your local city downtown. The price you paid was all of this years profits the business would earn plus the next 42 future years of profits. However, this one year profit is the maximum that business has ever earned historically so past results do not guarantee future performance etc etc. Therefore, your break even might take more than 43 years.
  • US consumers warned to brace for higher prices due to Trump’s tariffs
    @Edmond, your stoopidity is simply astounding.
    First, it's appropriate (for YOU) that you quoted REM to try to drive home your point, as it's a band named after Rapid Eye Movement, you know, a dream-state condition.
    LMFAO!
    That pretty much says it all. But here's more to the point(lessness) of your post...
    Let's just take chips, as I trust you've heard (?), they've been driving stock markets for about two years now, and what's holding back the market this year. So they are a great place to provide an example of what @rforno succinctly and accurately stated.
    Here's some comments on tariffs as they relate to that industry by somebody who has elevated his game beyond wild-eyed investment forum posts.
    TRY to understand what he says here. I know it's gonna be virtually impossible for you, but please, do at least TRY.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/06/trump-tariffs-live-updates-businesses-warn-of-ripple-down-effects-from-tariffs-because-of-rising-costs.html
    Excerpt: (BOLD added):
    Trade uncertainty weighing on chip companies, says ‘Chip War’ author
    The semiconductor industry is particularly vulnerable to tariffs due to how globally integrated its supply chains are, according to Chris Miller, Tufts Fletcher Schooler professor and ‘Chip War’ author.
    Even if chips are assembled in the U.S., many of the components used are not manufactured in the U.S., Miller noted.
    The complexity of the supply chains makes devising a tariff policy around carve outs very, very difficult, which is why the industry is hoping there won’t be any changes at all — because they’ve been structured around the assumption that you can move goods back and forth across borders without this type of tariff uncertainty,” Miller told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday.

    That said, I'm going to stop reading your posts because I'm losing too many brain cells in doing so.
  • AXS Market Neutral Fund (class I shares) will be liquidated
    I'd never heard of this fund (prior to your post).
    Looks like it is/was available on the Fidelity platform for a modest $5k minimum on taxable accounts. COGIX performed well in the 2022 bear -- earning a positive 10%. I presume what 'killed' the fund was that during the subsequent roaring bull of 2023-24, it earned about7.2% cumulatively during those 2 years.
    Roaring bulls can cause safe options to disappear.
  • Trump Administration Disbands Two Committees Advising on Economic Stats
    Following are lightly edited excerpts from a current report in The Wall Street Journal:
    Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick disbanded one committee, saying its mission ‘has been fulfilled’
    The Trump administration has disbanded two expert committees that advised the government on producing accurate economic statistics. Members of one group, the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee (FESAC), were told Tuesday that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick disbanded the committee last week because its mission “has been fulfilled,” in an email seen by The Wall Street Journal.
    The Commerce Department also terminated a second expert group, the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee, which consulted on a separate group of economic stats. Both committees’ websites say that coming meetings have been canceled.
    A FESAC committee member, economist Erica Groshen, said the group played a critical role in guiding the offices that track U.S. inflation, employment and economic growth. “Its work goes to the essential transparency of these statistical agencies,” Groshen said. “When you remove that transparency, then that diminishes trust.”
    FFESACesac guided government statistics for 25 years. High-profile academic economists including Daron Acemoglu, John Taylor and the late Alan Krueger served as some of its past members. Current members included academic economists, think-tank researchers and executives from Wall Street and corporations.
    The committees’ dismantling comes at a challenging moment for the government statistics agencies, which have faced tight budgets and falling response rates to surveys that are essential gauges of the health of the economy.
    The move also follows a suggestion from Lutnick over the weekend that the government could change how it calculates the size of the economy by separating government spending, which would be a sharp departure from academic theory and international norms.
    FESAC met twice a year to advise government statisticians and economists on how to improve and refine their surveys and calculations. Members weren’t paid for their work. Members who chose to attend meetings in person could be compensated for travel expenses.
    Groshen, who was previously head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, said FESAC had an especially important role advising on statistics that combine the work of multiple government agencies. That includes the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, the personal-consumption expenditures price index, which melds analysis from both the Labor Department and the Commerce Department.
    “These advisory committees are really essential to maintaining the quality of the data going forward,” she said.
    Comment: A couple of more guardrails against gaming the system removed.
  • Hundreds fired at NOAA, Weather Service. Here’s what that means for Americans and economy.
    @Edmond … in response to your points
    1. Scientists around the globe are concerned about climate change. It is not a conspiracy, but based on analyses of facts and measurements. I spent much of my career in air quality. I have personally observed and measured how small concentrations of air pollution can affect the environment and people’s health. Much of the opposition to climate change is funded by fossil fuel companies with vested interests in maintaining the status quo.
    2. This is true but context is important. Where I live, conservatives have consistently opposed land use controls to limit development in floodplains, coastal areas. Trump is also cutting funds for the US Forest Service and FEMA. National forests are located all over the US, not just California. I believe we will be experiencing more wildfires in many areas outside the West. Several years ago, we had an exceptionally dry year in North Carolina, and wildfires were occurring across the state.
    3. Many areas flooded by hurricanes in North Carolina were well outside floodplains, even 500-year zones. This was true in hurricanes Fran, Floyd, Matthew, Helene and others.
    Tar, I respect your opinion. Moreover, I respect your civil discourse. A rarity for some reason on MFO these days, where most threads are begun by parties who wish to turn this place into a political board.
    1. I did not use the term 'conspiracy'. Do fossil fuel companies use lobbying to further their interests? Sure. Is the use of money to influence outcomes in the climate issue unique to one side? I doubt it. I suspect money is a corrupting issue on both sides. (and on most issues). I simply do not believe the science outcomes are pure as the driven snow.
    2. Human lifetimes are short. I doubt any of us, from our personal experience has a large enough data set to infer larger truths from our anecdotal experiences. In 2021 the entire state of TX suffered a severe month-long freeze. Worse than anything in my lifetime. Do I infer a new Ice Age is at hand? No. It was a one-off.
    3 By definition then, perhaps the human-defined "flood plain" was not accurately understood. Human knowledge in all realms of science is incomplete and imperfect. We know more today than we did 200 years ago. Our understanding in 200 years will be more accurate still. We don't 'know it all' now. We should acknowledge the shortcomings of our knowledge. There is no sin to admitting we don't know it all.
  • Hundreds fired at NOAA, Weather Service. Here’s what that means for Americans and economy.
    @Edmond … in response to your points
    1. Scientists around the globe are concerned about climate change. It is not a conspiracy, but based on analyses of facts and measurements. I spent much of my career in air quality. I have personally observed and measured how small concentrations of air pollution can affect the environment and people’s health. Much of the opposition to climate change is funded by fossil fuel companies with vested interests in maintaining the status quo.
    2. This is true but context is important. Where I live, conservatives have consistently opposed land use controls to limit development in floodplains, coastal areas. Trump is also cutting funds for the US Forest Service and FEMA. National forests are located all over the US, not just California. I believe we will be experiencing more wildfires in many areas outside the West. Several years ago, we had an exceptionally dry year in North Carolina, and wildfires were occurring across the state.
    3. Many areas flooded by hurricanes in North Carolina were well outside floodplains, even 500-year zones. This was true in hurricanes Fran, Floyd, Matthew, Helene and others.
  • Trump says Mexico and Canada tariffs to take effect– Wall Street closes sharply lower
    Trump is clearly owned by uncle Vlad. Did you think he would just come right out and tell us so? As for Israel:
    Israel has controlled US foreign policy in the Mideast for decades. Concerned about foreign influence. End AIPAC and ban dual citizenship among US govt employees and office-holders...
    Truth, there.
    As for Market behavior: Markets respond to whichever news item they might latch onto. And Markets ALWAYS overreact, whether up or down, on a day to day basis. I've been saying so for years. And years.
    Trump is a traitorous wrecking ball. He's driving twin agendas: Project 2025 and Moscow's. There can be no denying it by now, except by willful ignorance.
  • Hundreds fired at NOAA, Weather Service. Here’s what that means for Americans and economy.
    ”If someone can’t see the connections between NOAA cuts and the economy, they aren’t thinking very hard or are blinded by ideology. The US has seen alarming increases in natural disasters in recent years, much of it due to climate change. Conservatives apparently don’t like NOAA because its science contradicts their view that climate change is a hoax.”
    Oh, I see the connection and am inclined to agree with the merits of your argument.
    No one is denying the connection. Of course weather / climate affects the economy. So does substance abuse in the workplace, decaying national infrastructure, organized crime and tax evasion, highway safety and posted speed limits. Throw in space launches along with the harmful orbital debris that’s accumulating. And the asteroid projected to pass very close to earth in 2032 could really impact the economy by taking out New York, San Francisco or London. Shall we create an investment thread on asteroids?
    My earlier point was that discussing one of these related subjects isn’t enough. If it’s under “investing” it ought to deal with applying that information to how we invest. Which funds or stocks would you buy or sell as a result of this information? How might the loss of NOAA affect interest rates and bond prices? Are there private sources for the information (SpaceX comes to mind) so you can still apply weather patterns to your investment decisions? Does this make you want to invest more or less in the markets? More or less inside / outside the U.S.?
    I hope folks will realize that without specific investment discussion “things that affect the economy” is too broad a criteria to warrant posting under Other Investing. There is a rich and vibrant Off Topic section where NOAA would be gladly welcomed along with the inevitable references to a government many here oppose. Politics and governance reign supreme in OT.
  • Hundreds fired at NOAA, Weather Service. Here’s what that means for Americans and economy.
    Another 'if you don't agree with me, you are (dumb) or (dogmatic). Well, at least there was no accusation of being a Russian bot...
    1. A lot of science is funded by govt. Scientists are quite good at math, and understand if they do not provide the desired conclusion -- that being "Omigod, its Global Warming" their future fundings may be cut off. Scientists are human. They have families to raise. They want the gravy train to continue, and know what they need to do, to keep the funding coming. Simple, human motivations.
    2. In the past 40 years, a large plurality of new homes/condos have been built very close to the coasts. Commercial developments follow the people. If you put a lot more structures on the coast, you are going to get more hurricane damage. In the arid western US, if the govts refuse to engage in forestry management, the fuel for the fires accumulate until a spark sets the unmanaged flora ablaze. CA is infamous for not engaging in sound forestry management. The Santa Anas blow every year. Bad govt policy is what drove the scale of the disaster.
    3. If neighborhoods are allowed to build on a flood plain, they should expect to, well, get flooded. NOLA, famously, is below sea level. And we are shocked that occasionally NOLA gets hit?
    The simple expansion of human settlements/cities/exurbsover the past 50 years assures that there will be more incidents of natural disasters. That is simple probability.
    Do billions in losses from natural disasters effect the economy? Of course they do. It creates GDP, as incremental spending occurs to rebuild. -- One reason why GDP is a lousy measure of how a country is doing, economically.
    Certainly, if NOAA is meritorious, George Soros, Jeremy Grantham and Bill Gates are welcome to fund it with their private donations.
  • A good year to date for many bond funds.
    I like writing. Amazon recently invited me to become a “Vine” reviewer. You get items (to keep) for free in exchange for “your honest unbiased review.”
    But wait! They report every item as income based on its normal retail price to the IRS. So, if you received a “free” $1,000 TV set, in my tax bracket you would owe 22% to the Feds and around 4.25% to my state. - $260 + in income taxes alone for a single item. (That doesn’t even take into account the 6% state sales tax you’d pay.) Stories are legion online of unfortunate participants who either did not know the rules or thought they could skate by without reporting. One reported receiving a $20,000 + tax bill from the IRS 3 years after becoming a participant. For me, it’s a no brainer. Not interested. I have some other beefs about how I’ve been treated by Amazon in the past which I won’t get into here. But the coward at the WP practices the same editorial discretion in placement of reviews.
  • Hundreds fired at NOAA, Weather Service. Here’s what that means for Americans and economy.
    If someone can’t see the connections between NOAA cuts and the economy, they aren’t thinking very hard or are blinded by ideology. The US has seen alarming increases in natural disasters in recent years, much of it due to climate change. Conservatives apparently don’t like NOAA because its science contradicts their view that climate change is a hoax.
    Wildfires are possibly the most alarming, and the links to climate change are undeniable. When they occur, the destruction is rapid and devastating. Who would have expected large portions of Los Angeles to go up in flames? Many insurance companies are abandoning coverage in much of California. There will come a time when wildfires destroy large amounts of forests and property in the Eastern United States, and conservatives will act shocked.
    Hurricanes, tornadoes and severe storms are also linked to climate change. And again, conservatives claim that there is no link to climate change. Meanwhile, many insurance companies are raising rates or pulling out of places like Florida that are prone to hurricanes. NOAA is the primary federal agency dealing with weather and climate. Cutting funding to it is penny wise and pound foolish.
    So, apparently some of you think that billions of dollars of destruction from natural disasters has no effects on the economy. I suggest that you visit western North Carolina, LA or other places destroy by wildfires, floods, hurricanes, etc.
  • US consumers warned to brace for higher prices due to Trump’s tariffs
    Vehicles increased far more due to the deficit-spending of the past 4 years. Apparently, no heartbreak about that..? The Dems push for EVs which are far more expensive than ICE cars, so apparently its OK to pay more to 'save the planet'....?
    Costs may -- or may not -- be able to be passed on to consumers. There is no way you or I can know. Neither of us has a crystal ball. The certitude with which predictions are made is interesting.. Supply/demand will adjust, however it does -- as it always does.
    More cars (and other things) will be built in this country growing incomes in this country, and adding supply (longer term). Middle-class jobs. In America.
  • American businesses reel as Trump tariffs start to bite
    Silly name calling. Ad hominem attacks. The rhetorical style reminds me when I was 10 years old on the school playground.
    HA! Might have rubbed off on some of us from your GRAND LEADER. Sleepy Joe, Crooked Hillary, Ron DeSanctus.
    But you have a point - he should seek help. Lots of it. Kind of hypocritical if your party leads with this, but we are used to that.
  • American businesses reel as Trump tariffs start to bite
    Do you not hear yourself? "Orange Blob". Do you not comprehend how off-kilter that sound? Silly name calling. Ad hominem attacks. The rhetorical style reminds me when I was 10 years old on the school playground.
    Seek help.
  • American businesses reel as Trump tariffs start to bite
    The stock market is experiencing a garden variety correction, after 2 consecutive +20% years. Perfectly normal. Perfectly ordinary. Stock markets correct. They do so regularly when monetary authorities are not constantly trying to 'manage' them.
    I welcome the opportunity to buy quality shares in a mini- (or bigger-) panic. I've heard of people who "bough high and sold low". They didn't seem to enjoy the experience. Selloffs are an opportunity.
     
    Nattering nabobs with their hair on fire screaming the sky is falling good for a laugh. Kinda like Dem congresspeople self-identifying as "False" during Trump's speech.
  • Back-handed blessing? HK firm sells port facilities at Panama Canal to BlackRock. (news link.)
    Anyhow, Because Beijing is an oppressive scum regime, it seemed like a weak spot, a potential threat. No offense to CK Hutchinson. They are HK-based, but Beijing has been clamping down on rights and freedoms for years. Kinda like the Orange P.O.S. is doing to this country right now.
  • The CFPB drops its case against payment app Zelle
    Following are excerpts from a current NPR report:
    The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has dropped its lawsuit against the operator of payment platform Zelle and three of its parent banks, in the latest move by the Trump administration to undo actions of the bureau's prior leadership. The bureau had filed the lawsuit in late December against the operator of Zelle, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo "for failing to protect consumers from widespread fraud." Customers of the top three banks lost more than $870 million over seven years due to the banks' failures to protect them, according to the CFPB.
    "This is about financial institutions fulfilling their basic obligations to protect customers' money and help fraud victims recover their losses," then-CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said at the time. "These banks broke the law by running a payment system that made fraud easy, and then refusing to help the victims."
    However, that was then. On Tuesday the administration dropped its case against Zelle, according to a filing in U.S. District Court in Arizona.
    Zelle and its parent banks are just the latest enforcement target to be abandoned by the CFPB, which is currently led by acting director Russell Vought. Last week the bureau dropped cases it was litigating against five companies including Capital One, Rocket Homes and others. It had earlier dropped its case against online lending platform SoLo Funds.
    The CFPB has also been decimated in a matter of weeks, with agency's employees ordered to stop essentially all work, while some 150 employees have been fired. The bureau's D.C. headquarters has also been shuttered.
  • Trump says Mexico and Canada tariffs to take effect– Wall Street closes sharply lower
    Howdy folks, and particularly Anna,
    Hope this finds you well.
    Things here have not yet changed that much as of yet. We have a very fluid border due to work commuters. That said, WTF knows what Washington will do with the borders or how this is going to play out with retaliation.
    I'm anticipating a depression and double digit inflation. Half of our farm workers are illegal and in California it's 75%. Oh, and the Chinese will target agricultural products so that's going to crush the farmers.
    I've pretty much gone to the mattresses. I've still got some stocks in various forms, but like most of the others, I've increased our cash and bond holdings. Where I'm still playing is with penny silver miners as usual.
    The next two years are going to be a schadenfreude multiple orgasm as he throws one voting block after another under the bus.
    Take care of yourself and stay safe,
    and so it goes,
    peace,
    rono
  • What will they break first: short treasury bonds or SHORT IG BONDS?
    @LarryB . I did not say this thread or anyone’s comments therein contained should be in off-topic. Just that my own feelings regarding politics go there. You are welcome to post anything you want. If you want me to delete my last remark directed to @Soupkitchen so as not to soil your outstanding thread I can do so. Sorry you didn’t find my discussion of currencies more helpful.
    @LarryB. Would you mind sharing how you are invested? ISTM even 2 or 3 years ago you were pretty much sitting in cash … Still the case?