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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Health Sector Funds: FSPHX vs FSMEX and others
    I have owned FSEMX for a fair number of years and have no plans to liquidate. I know there is an ETF that invest in healthcare technology, but I am not familiar with it.
    Over the years, I have owned most of the funds you mentioned, but FSMEX stand out.
    I like the idea of investing in the technology of healthcare (for the most part). It appears to be a niche that has a very long run ahead.
    JMHO, Matt
  • Is this time different ?!
    YES, indeed. This time is different remains in place since the market melt in 2008. These observations have been expressed over the years here. The market melt of 2008 impacted economic sectors, unlike sectors affected today. But, 2008 brought large policy changes for the functions of monetary policy from central banks. These processes are still being sorted today, as to what, where and when. Other investing sectors changes were already in place, and continue now. We know technology continues to impact and the market place has continued to innovate investment choices via more and more thematic oriented placements.
    MOTIF was an early player in this space, where one could build there own thematic investment or invest in other existing themes. From a 2020 notification:
    After ten years in the investment space, online brokerage platform Motif will be shutting down operations on May 20. The company notified users via email on April 17 in a message saying, “At this time, we've made the decision to cease operations and transfer your account to Folio Investments.”
    Anyhoo. Covid brought forth another new era of investing. Unlike the 2008 melt, when one could still go to a restaurant, vacation or whatever else; Covid removed the social functions, and impacting the economies in a whole new fashion.
    Then the rise of the "inequality retail traders" via Robinhood, etc. Some of this birth reportedly had roots in the "Occupy Wall Street" movement years ago.
    The writer of the article mentions social media and impacts. I fully agree with this thought. Fortunately for him and our house, too; he/we are able to discover some of what is taking place within the 20-40 y.o. groups relative to social media, and what may be of value as related to investing.
    We ask questions of some of the younger ones as to what is going on within social media, who and/or what is "trending". As with anything related to what is investment worthy; we attempt to ask the proper question in hopes of receiving a proper answer/observation.
    This area (social media) travels at the "speed of electrons". Robinhood and related have and will continue to impact retail markets; and one can be assured that the big institutional houses have likely established folks from the 20-40 y.o. group to keep them informed. If this is not the case, they are missing the investment boat.
    >>>This write is for informational purposes only, as I'm not formally trained in economics or psychology.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • Best Ideas for Commodity Exposure
    Good grief! SPCAX has a turnover ratio of 4,249% according to M*. Maybe @msf’s legion of fact checkers/researchers could compute the average holding period for a typical position given that number. IIRC, a 20% TOR results from holding a position for 5 years.
    This is one of your more opaque funds, with derivatives, shorts, and 25% of assets in the management company's Cayman Islands subsidiary. And the turnover figure presented represents only a small portion of the portfolio (the few "vanilla" holdings). So I'm afraid that any turnover calculation (even if I could decrypt all of this) wouldn't be meaningful.
    From the annual report: "The Commodity Strategies Global Macro Fund may invest up to 25% of its total assets in the subsidiary, a wholly-owned and controlled subsidiary formed under the laws of the Cayman Islands." M* reports 25.11% of the portfolio in "Cayman" as of June 30th.
    From the SAI:
    The Commodity Strategies Global Macro Fund's portfolio turnover rates for the fiscal years ended June 30, 2020, and June 30, 2019 were 4,249% and 5,463%, respectively. ... As defined, the portfolio turnover rate calculation may only include the turnover of "securities" within the Fund’s portfolio .... The calculation does not include the turnover of other instruments in which the Fund more commonly invests, such as commodity futures instruments and other derivatives. The portfolio turnover rate, therefore, only provides a turnover rate on a narrow portion of assets purchased and sold within the Fund’s overall portfolio. The Advisor estimates that if futures contracts and derivatives were included in the calculation, the portfolio turnover ratio for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2020 would have been lower
    One would certainly hope that the turnover rate for the whole portfolio is lower!
    A few numeric oddities that one doesn't need to be an accounting expert to see:
    • the cheaper Institutional shares have underperformed the Advisor shares by 0.02% over the past one and three years;
    • while the website says: "[the Advisor] share class includes an explicit 0.25% shareholder servicing fee", the prospectus reports a 0.20% fee; and
    • the investor class shares have "other" fees that are 0.19% higher than the advisor class fees (per prospectus)

  • Diversifying with Bond Funds
    Hey @davidmoran,
    " When the students are ready to learn, the teacher will appear"
    Hmm... I think I heard that on an old kung Fu tv show years back.
    Best of luck to all,
    Baseball Fan
  • Portfolio Fun...
    I owned some Matthews years ago. A very bad customer service experience--- with one of the SENIOR guys--- caused me to empty my account with them. I still have faith in Teresa Kong at MAINX. I track that one, and MAPIX, because they're in a friend's portfolio--- which I've been babysitting since 2010. ...As for my current holdings, I've got nothing terribly unconventional. I just sold some shares which amount to 2.62% of our total holdings. Good time to do it, with Markets at or near a top, day after day. It is ALL profit! This time, I spread out the withdrawal between a few funds we own. Wifey wants a house to retire to, and for her family to use over there, between now and then. A house for $6,000? And you'll be satisfied with that? "Sure, ok." 2 storeys, sliding glass door, balcony, great view of the surrounding hills. It's out in the country, in her old barrio, where she grew up.
  • Diversifying with Bond Funds
    If you are a trader like me and watch momentum you switch. I held PIMIX for about 7 years. I also watch very high risk and why I sold prior to the meltdown last March(link) and bought after it.
    It's also pretty obvious from my table above that PIMIX is way behind the leaders for 1-3 months and what I use for my investments as a trader.
  • Best Ideas for Commodity Exposure
    Elsewhere I read that catalytic converters are disappearing from parked cars because of their rare metals content. Signs of a bubble or social commentary re: the new normal?
    Prices for the precious metals used in catalytic converters have increased significantly.
    "From about $500 an ounce five years ago, the price of palladium quintupled to hit a record of $2,875 an ounce last year, and is now hovering between $2,000 and $2,500 an ounce, above the price of gold. Rhodium prices have skyrocketed more than 3,000% from about $640 an ounce five years ago to a record $21,900 an ounce this year, roughly 12 times the price of gold." Link
  • Best Ideas for Commodity Exposure
    Good grief! SPCAX has a turnover ratio of 4,249% according to M*. Maybe @msf’s legion of fact checkers/researchers could compute the average holding period for a typical position given that number. IIRC, a 20% TOR results from holding a position for 5 years.
    One newsletter I read has DBA and DBC in its portfolio for exposure to ag and “stuff”. I’ve never owned either one. Elsewhere I read that catalytic converters are disappearing from parked cars because of their rare metals content. Signs of a bubble or social commentary re: the new normal?
  • Best Ideas for Commodity Exposure
    I spent a lot of time a couple years ago looking at this issue. the funds that track various indices are pretty heavily in energy, especially oil. I decided that if I wanted to invest this heavily in oil, I could buy individual stocks or an energy fund. I looked in some detail at actively managed funds and tried to avoid ones that had large fees ( although they all are expensive)
    I finally picked Silverpepper Commodity Fund SPCAX and have been satisfied. It has handily beaten the category and most commodity indices.
    Their web page is rather sparse but will show you that they are invested mainly in agricultural commodities now. M* has very little update information unfortunately.
    An alternative is to pick large ETFs focused on various commodities and buy a basket of them that meets your objectives
    Barrons had a article on Commodities recently.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/commodities-are-starting-to-rally-here-are-the-stocks-and-funds-to-play-it-51611958101
  • Best Ideas for Commodity Exposure
    I currently own GLD, HSTRX ....sold SLV last fall (who knew it would get superhyped by Reddit? etc). For any of you using or allocating to Commodities, what are you using? Performance has been been rough for a few years but looking at those type of asset classes for opportunities and to diversity further.
  • Diversifying with Bond Funds
    I said several times in the past, PIMIX was a great fund until 01/2018 when I sold it after holding for several years. Since 01/2018 it's still a good fund but performance ranks only at the top 44% according to M*.
    Past performance is important but I'm looking to make a lot more since my portfolio is mainly in bond OEFs. See below performance as of 2-9-2021 sorted by YTD.
    Can you guess where is my money now?
    image
  • Forecasting Never. Works
    @sfnative Elaborate. State the manifold reasons in your view. They're worthy of discussion. If it's falling interest rates, that's done. If it's attractive valuations, gone too. If it's America's economic dominance, that is up for grabs. Maybe, maybe not. There is one reason, though, I can think of that is very important and still valid--the constant need to make the rich and powerful grow even more rich and powerful, provide them whatever they need to keep the stock market rising--tax breaks, Fed bailouts, interest rate cuts, anti-competitive monopolies that would never have existed in the trust buster era, union busting, gutting environmental regulations and pretending climate change doesn't exist, minimum wage supressed, 17-year patents on me-too drugs that have one molecule of difference with the last me too drug.
    Our government has tilted in that direction since the 1980s and I don't see any real difference in the current administration. In fact, I think the phrase "income inequality" is baked into the "in the long run stocks go up" thesis. So you may be right. In fact, in the other discussion on Grantham's bearish predictions being wrong one thing not discussed is a rather famous mea culpa he made a few years ago about not realizing how corporate power has grown in recent years so that monopolistic dominance that wouldn't have been tolerated in earlier eras is now permitted. That dominance is baked into the returns of bellwether tech stocks and the benchmarks themselves. In other words, there aren't too many search engines people use besides Google's. The fact that market-cap weighted index funds keep buying those bellwether tech stocks creates a kind of feedback loop, making them more powerful and driving their stocks even higher.
    image
  • Diversifying with Bond Funds
    Also, @FD1000 might better explain SVARX (ER around 3%).
    This is mainly a fund of funds. In their top 5 holdings they have IOFIX+BDKNX both expense ratio about 1.5%. Then they use leverage, and they still want to make money.
    The only explanation that I care about is performance which is after expenses + risk attributes(SD, Max Draw, Sharpe, Sortino, others).
    I never invested in SVARX because I do my own trading + going to cash and my performance + SD in the last 3 years is better. My portfolio max loss from any last top was lower than 1%.
  • Diversifying with Bond Funds
    PIMIX still has the highest Sharpe ratio, lowest drawdown and no down years
    The following performance graph is from PIMIX's 2009 statutory prospectus. You can take it on faith that this is for the institutional class shares for calendar year 2008 or you can find it yourself on p. 58 of the 21MB prospectus.
    image
    MSF, I think you may have misread my comment. I said "Go ahead and compare PIMIX to many of the funds mentioned here back to January 2016. PIMIX still has the highest Sharpe ratio, lowest drawdown and no down years."
    After that I said "The same holds mostly true back to 2009 (except PIMIX was down a modest 5.47% in 2008)." I should have said back to 2008 but the point is the same.
  • Closed-end fund IRL
    I owned IRL back in the 1990s. I think what's here is a different iteration since then. And there's been lots of water that's passed under the bridge in the years since.
    Policy:
    "The Fund pays quarterly distributions at an annual rate, set once a year, that is a percentage of the Fund's net asset value ("NAV") on December 12. The Board has determined that the annual rate will be 8% per annum payable in quarterly installments. " (OOPS! No Divs. in 2019 at all?)
    Currently trading at a -20% discount to NAV.
    https://www.morningstar.com/cefs/xnys/irl/quote
  • Forecasting Never. Works

    To wit: I own 11 dedicated, actively managed stock funds. All 11 easily beat-to-blow away their bogeys. 10 of 11 do the same vs the S&P, the only one being a SCV fund that I bought last year. This scenario has been the case with my port for about 40 years now.
    When I say blow away, I mean blow away....
    Stillers!
    I thought we were friends. I thought we were ALL friends at MFO. Lynn Bolin for example, shares and shares, as do so many others. You know of 11 funds that blow away their benchmarks, just make them look like fools, and you won’t share one? Not even one? I am sad!
  • Diversifying with Bond Funds
    Here is what David Giroux, the wunderkind manager of one of the best asset allocation funds, PRWCX, said in a recent M* interview about rising interest rates and duration:
    "So, now, everybody's convinced the yields are going to go up 1% to 2%, but not above 2%. We'll see. What I would tell you about rates today is that the risk/reward on Treasuries or IG [investment grade] is so poor, it gets a situation where if rates stay static, you make very, very low returns. If rates revert back to more normalized levels, you lose a lot of money. And if rates go down, you don't have a lot of room for rates to go down. So, it's really hard to get a really great return. [...] even if rates rose 100 bps over two years, you made zero return. [...] So, as a result of that, we have a very short duration in our fixed-income portfolio, probably the shortest duration we've had since I've been running this strategy.
    Our duration today is 1.5 years, just because that skew is so negative on a lot of traditional fixed income. [...] So, this is a time to be short duration in your fixed-income portfolio. [...]"

    Since I basically agree with Giroux's current outlook, I will not invest in "reliable" intermediate core/core plus bond OEFs at this time. Rather, I am using multi-sector OEFs like RCTIX, TSIIX, or even PIMIX, which have excellent risk/reward profiles but durations of less than 3.0.
    This may be off-topic, but I have also been investing in alternative funds like ARBIX, a "market neutral" fund according to M*, that has exhibited a bond-like low risk profile with a SD of 2.97% and a Sortino Ratio of 2.38. Its YTD total return is 1.43% and its 3-year return is a pleasing 6.23%. During the recent market crash, the fund lost 3.1% during the month of March, and over its 3.5 year history its largest monthly loss was 0.38% in November 2018. So far, so good.
    These are very uncertain times and, as another poster said, "with rising interest rates in 2021, it seems that [...] Investment Grade Intermediate bond oefs are struggling". Hence, I have decided to look at other low risk opportunities outside the conventional bond OEF box.
    Good luck,
    Fred
  • Shout-Out to @hank
    Thanks to you both for responding. I may have another way to contact Hank as we spoke about another matter a couple of years ago.
  • Small Caps
    @MikeW Thanks for the heads up. It looks intriguing. I found a brief article on Kiplinger’s from December 2020 about DSCPX:
    Davenport Small Cap Focus (DSCPX) Clobbers the Broader Market
    It shows it fell right between the two Paradigm funds performance-wise for the past five years. The only concern I have is that its higher turnover (v. PFSLX) might be more of an issue for a taxable account.
  • Port Viz
    This is such a great tool. I do have to substitute some of my funds with Vanguard comparable to get it to go back far enough. For example FXAIX only goes back to 2011 or 2012 while VFIAX back to 2000 I believe. I like backtesting porfolios that includes 2008. This can be challenging or impossible if you have a fair number of "newer" funds or funds less than 13 years old.