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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Dodge & Cox Leadership Transition
    Dana Emery, Chair and CEO of Dodge & Cox, will retire on 12/31/2025.
    Dodge & Cox has thoughtfully planned for this transition.
    David Hoeft will become the firm's Chair while continuing to serve as CIO.
    Roger Kuo will succeed Ms. Emery as CEO and Chair of the fund board while continuing to serve as President.
    Hoeft has been with Dodge & Cox for 31 years while Kuo has been with the firm for 26 years.
    https://www.dodgeandcox.com/individual-investor/us/en/about-us/news-and-firm-updates/2025/dodge-and-cox-leadership-and-investment-committee-updates.html
  • Retirement Calculators
    @bee
    Yes, I passed the Optimal Retirement Planner around to several people when you placed that in a link a few years back. It really was valuable.
    Related to that, in a Rob Berger post I was reading this morning regarding Tax-Efficient withdrawal strategies, he mentioned a Kitces piece on tax smoothing, which Kitces calls tax equilibrium. That's where you drawn down an IRA even before RMDs to prevent a large future tax bill.
    If I recall, you posted that Kitces study in the same link with the ORP, and I've been following that strategy ever since.
    Here's the Berger item as an FYI:
    https://robberger.com/tax-efficient-retirement-withdrawal-strategies/
  • CFPB put to sleep
    The Trump coup d'etat continues. Is this investing? Or off-topic material? We will ALL be affected by Regulators removed from the gov't grid. Clearly, the strategy is to simply destroy everything, and let the courts catch-up, if they are able. Things will have to be re-constructed again----- if enough votes can be found in the Congress to do it, in years to come.
    "Stoopid is as stoopid does." ---Forrest Gump.
    https://www.westernmassnews.com/2025/02/09/trump-official-orders-consumer-protection-agency-stop-work/
  • Outflows: VWELX, VWINX, VDIGX, VPMAX
    msf: "ETFs can't be closed."
    What is the law or rule that says an ETF is not allowed to close inflows?
    There's no rule of law that gives ETFs an advantage over OEFs when it comes to taxes. In fact, the law that says a fund can make embedded gains vanish by offloading them onto investors was written many years before ETFs ever existed.
    It's not a rule of law, but a rule of reality - pragmatism - that prevents OEFs from doing this. In order to dump cap gains onto an investor redeeming shares, a fund must redeem those shares in kind. A few OEFs are even known to do this, e.g. Sequoia. But generally only for larger redemptions.
    Similarly, it's not that ETFs are prohibited by law from closing, but as others have explained above, pragmatically the chaos it would cause is an effective bar.
    Sequoia fund gives departing shareholders stock instead of cash (Investment News 2016)
    A provision in the 1940 Investment Company Act allows funds to pay redemptions in securities, rather than cash, but it's a provision that's rarely used, in part because in-kind redemptions could damage a fund's reputation. ... Under the law, the fund doesn't have to distribute in-kind redemptions in proportion to the fund's holdings.

    Sequoia prospectus, May 1, 2024
    • Unless otherwise prohibited by law, the Fund may pay the redemption price to you in cash or in portfolio securities, or partly in cash and partly in portfolio securities.
    • The Fund has adopted a policy under which the Fund may limit cash payments in connection with redemption requests to $250,000 during any ninety (90) day period. As a result, the Fund may pay you in securities or partly in securities if the amount of Fund shares that you redeem is more than $250,000.
    • It is highly likely that the Fund will pay you in securities or partly in securities if you make a redemption (or series of redemptions) in an amount greater than $250,000
  • Tweedy, Browne Insider + Value ETF in registration
    That change amounts to "old wine, new bottles". Small shops are facing of flat or declining asset are ding the same in order to survive.
    We used to invested with Tweedy Browne 30 years ago and learned there are better choices out there. High fees and continuing poor performance are the main reasons.
  • Outflows: VWELX, VWINX, VDIGX, VPMAX
    In the past we owned all the Vanguard funds mentioned in this tread. We have since left majority of them awhile back for the same reasons that pr viusly mentioned. How times have changed for Wellington and Primecap funds that trail their peers for a long time, even with low fees. I suspect the dominance of growth stocks in particularly the Mag 7 in the last 10 years contributes to this.
    In our taxable account, we still hold their index funds. As we transitioned to ETFs and there are many solid choices, our index funds will be replaced gradually.
    At Fidelity's transaction-fee platform, Vanguard and Dodge & Cox funds will cost $100 to buy, whereas the typical fee is $49.95. Not sure with Schwab's purchase policy.
  • Outflows: VWELX, VWINX, VDIGX, VPMAX
    I am not aware of any example of an etf closing creation/redemption voluntarily.
    But there have been some country ETFs that had these mechanisms disrupted due to the imposition of sudden currency controls. I think that both creation and redemptions were frozen in some cases.
    One really strange example was GLD a few years ago when gold was hot and GLD ran out of shares (!; so no creation) because someone at the sponsor had forgotten to get timely SEC approval for issuing additional shares - a routine procedure but it still takes a few days.
    If the creation/redemption mechanism is active and working, high demand will tend to drive premium up, but APs would control that by creation of more shares and that will increase the etf AUM until the demand is satisfied; reverse for sharp selloffs.
  • Outflows: VWELX, VWINX, VDIGX, VPMAX
    You wrote: "some arrogance involved. primecap and wellington had many years to ask vanguard to adopt an etf structure for tax\trading benefits."
    Seems a bit presumptive to infer that they didn't ask vanguard to adopt an ETF structure merely from the fact that Vanguard didn't do so.
    Regardless, if Primecap had wanted to run some funds with an ETF structure it had its own company to do this.
    I wrote that AUM didn't seem to be a major concern of Primecap. Perhaps I should have written that growing AUM doesn't seem to be a major objective. Primecap has always been concerned about the size of its AUM being too large. That's why both Vanguard and Primecap Odyssey funds have had multiyear (even multidecade) closures. Even though that impeded "how they get paid". Responsible managers do things like that.
    ETFs can't be closed. Why would Primecap open wide the inflow spigot with ETFs while simultaneously keeping their OEF funds closed?
    primecap and wellington dont care bout their fund AUM plunges
    What AUM plunge? Despite closures, despite outflows, Vanguard Primecap's AUM stands at or near its all time peak:
    Current: $75.9B (per M*)
    Sept 2024: $78B
    Sept 2023: $65B
    Sept 2022: $56B
    Sept 2021: $74B
    Sept 2020: $64B
    Sept 2019: $63B
    Sept 2018: $69B
    Sept 2017: $58B
    Sept 2016: $47B
    Sept 2015: $42B
    Prospectus Jan 31, 2025 and Prospectus Jan 31, 2020
  • U.S. Consumer Sentiment Drops to Seven-Month Low / Inflation Expectations Rise Sharply
    ”US consumer sentiment slumped in early February to a seven-month low on a spike in short-term inflation expectations related to concerns about tariffs. The preliminary February sentiment index slid 3.3 points to 67.8, according to the University of Michigan. The latest reading trailed all forecasts of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
    “Consumers expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.3% over the next year, up a full percentage point from the prior month, the data released Friday showed. And they saw costs rising at an annual rate of 3.3% over the next five to 10 years, up slightly from the previous month.”

    Sourced From Yahoo Finance (as reported by Bloomberg)
    Related: The rate on the U.S. 10-Year Treasury jumped .051 ppt to just below 4.5% after the report’s release today. That’s still down sharply from a recent high of around 4.8% reached 2-3 weeks earlier.
  • Schwab MM question
    @zenbrew, the issues mentioned don't apply to margin a/c.
    I have had margin a/c for years, but I don't use margin loans anymore.
    Without margin a/c, you are relying on good graces of the brokerage to extend you a penalty-free overnight overdraft.
    Of course, margin is N/A or very limited in IRAs, and I do face similar issues there.
  • FHMIX
    For a muni fund with a wide range of duration, one can look outside the box (national muni funds).
    STWTX / STWVX (Hartford Schroders Tax-Aware Bond Fund) was classified as a muni fund through 2018. Since then it's been classified as a taxable bond fund. As M* describes the fund:
    It often holds 70%-80% of assets in munis but will make big shifts to this allocation when its managers see more value there. [In 2020-2021 it dropped munis to 50%-60% of the portfolio. Since 2022 munis have constituted 70%+ of the fund.]
    Currently, 93% of its assets are muni bonds.
    With respect to duration:
    The Fund may invest in fixed income securities of any maturity or duration. The Fund’s effective duration may vary overtime
    Summary Prospectus.
    M* shows that over the past five years, the fund's style box has ranged from short term/middle grade to long term/high grade. In words, M* writes:
    duration stood at just under 4.0 years for most of 2019 through the end of 2021, but it extended again throughout 2022 and 2023 to over 9.0 years
    Where the rubber meets the road:
    Even on a pre-tax basis, BSNIX has performed significantly better. But as its prospectus says, it does not go long. (See also its fixed income style map here.) Both funds are five star funds. I'd stick with the lower risk, higher performing Baird fund.
    Wide ranging funds, even five star funds, are not always what they're cracked up to be.
  • FHMIX
    As I mentioned in David Snowball's thread, I too was concerned about the new MAGA trying to raise revenue by getting rid of tax exempt status of muni bonds. I had also posted that Alliance Bernstein article. After further reflection, I think that is a low probability outcome for the next four years because they are playing a long game. Sorry if I inadvertently alarmed others about this.
  • FHMIX
    I own Baird Strategic Municipal Bond BSNIX (current duration 4.28 year) as well as Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt VWIUX (current duration 5.6 years). In the past, I have used them for tax-loss harvesting and currently have a much larger position in BSNIX.
    I am please with BSNIX and have concluded that the additional 21 basis points in the ER has been well worth it. BSNIX 12 month, 3-year, and 5-year returns have been significantly better, with a higher 3-year alpha and a lower Standard Deviation. I had also looked at NSAOX, but the considerably higher Standard Deviation scared me away.
  • FHMIX
    @a2z
    Have you considered Baird Strategic Municipal Bond Fund?
    I'm not sure how the fund's targeted duration would align with your preferred 1 yr. - 8 yr. period.
    "It targets an average maturity in the short to
    intermediate-term range, investing across the
    1-15 year segment of the yield curve. The
    team utilizes yield curve positioning in the
    investment management process to capture
    pricing inefficiencies and optimize yield and
    'roll' while striving for tax efficiency."

    "While obligations of any maturity may be
    purchased, under normal circumstances, the
    Fund’s dollar-weighted average effective
    maturity is generally expected to be between
    three months and ten years. The Fund has a
    targeted duration of +/- 2 years to its
    benchmark."

    https://www.bairdassetmanagement.com/siteassets/pdfs/fact-sheets/bond-strategic-muni-fact-sheet.pdf
  • FHMIX
    good discussion. been having a running chat with charles bolin on regular+timed asset shifts to tax-free options, and have yet to find an attractive low cost active fund with a goal (not mandate) to invest across a wider duration (preferably 1-8 years).
    i dislike myself having to weight between short vs. mid, and all these highly rated groups (e.g., baird, but preferably with lower cost) have the skills to do so.
    there is also a related chat on whether tax-free arena can be a safe place from MAGA\DOGE\trump related volatility.
    it seems too boring for them, but anyplace they dont have a stake is a potential target for any crony with an agenda.
    see
    https://www.alliancebernstein.com/corporate/en/insights/investment-insights/will-a-red-wave-affect-municipal-bonds-tax-exempt-status.html
  • Outflows: VWELX, VWINX, VDIGX, VPMAX
    I thought for years VWINX seemed to ”walk on water” - meaning it regularly outpaced the competition for reasons difficult to fathom. Great management for sure. Low fees of course. And likely some good luck. It began to slump about the time interest rates ratcheted up. For a year or two the sentiment among owners (from what I could discern on the board) was “It’s just temporary. Hang on or buy more.” But investors today have scarce little patience. Given that performance relative to peers didn’t turn up in a year or two, outflows might be expected.
    None of this is meant to dispute all the other reasons listed by others above. I did briefly entertain thoughts of investing in VWINX at Fidelity only to learn it wasn’t available. Not a big deal. For any given fund I own, a half-dozen or more others were considered and might have also served the role intended.
    Interesting line from The Gambler someone posted to Bill Fleckenstein’s board earlier this week …
    "And somewhere in the evening the gambler he broke even, and in his final words I found an ace that I could keep..."
  • Outflows: VWELX, VWINX, VDIGX, VPMAX
    Vanguard has never created an ETF share class of an existing actively managed fund. Until a few years ago that would have created disclosure problems (publishing portfolios daily) for the existing funds. Even now, it might find it difficult to shoehorn the newer ETF rules into its patent for ETF/OEF share classes. (Don't know, haven't checked.)
    Nor is Vanguard likely to ever clone an OEF into an ETF. That could immediately trigger an outflow from the OEF into the cheaper ETF, at least in tax-sheltered accounts. Vanguard was burned by doing something similar not too long ago - opening a cheaper clone of a TDF to lots of investors by lowering the min for the clone. The resulting shifting of assets by investors created a hefty cap gains tax liability for those investors remaining in the more expensive fund.
    The third alternative would be to convert the OEFs into ETFs. If that were such an obvious move, then one would expect most fund companies to have already done this. While some have, the number seems to be more like a trickle than a flood.
    IMHO RK is understating VDIGX's performance issues. I agree that when one invests in a particular style of fund and that style by design underperforms, that's not cause for concern.
    However ... a quick M* screen of large cap blend funds with "Dividend" in their name (e.g. Rising Dividends, Dividend Growth, etc.) turns up 60 share classes. VDIGX is 60th of 60 for 3 year returns. 97th percentile in 2023, 98th percentile in 2024, and 89th percentile YTD.
    OTOH, with Primecap, ISTM that its moderate underperformance (55th percentile over 3 years, 63rd percentile over 5 years) may indeed be attributed to its long term style - investing more in large caps and less in mega caps, and investing 10-20% internationally. If one is looking for a pure US large/mega fund, this isn't it and never has been.
    Finally, there's a difference between moving away from Vanguard's platform and Vanguard's funds. It may be possible to negotiate a waiver of transaction fees for Vanguard funds on another platform. I was able to do that with Schwab when I brought my (somewhat sizeable) Vanguard holdings there. Though it is very difficult to buy additional Admiral shares of actively managed Vanguard funds on non-Vanguard platforms.
  • Can FPURX, FBALX Beat the "Vanguard 3-Fund Portfolio"
    @mskursh, before our 403b was changed ("improved", as they said), I had AF RERGX (Euro Pacific R6) in our large plan and owned it for years. So, they are available in plans, not just for AF TDFs.
  • Outflows: VWELX, VWINX, VDIGX, VPMAX

    some arrogance involved.
    primecap and wellington had many years to ask vanguard to adopt an etf structure for tax\trading benefits.
    the fee declines seem too little, too late for typical active retail buyers.
  • Tactical-Allocation Funds
    The average return of a category of funds in any of the past ten years can be found on the M* performance page of a sample fund in that category. Precise to the basis point.
    For example, using LCORX:
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/lcorx/performance
    Thanks for the reminder. That category average is “hidden in plain sight”. Hard to miss. I don’t typically compare any fund to category - much as I use M*. Every fund is unique.