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The debt/equity ratio is now a feature in all my screens on MFO premium. I'm also looking for good Martin ratio numbers.how are companies going to roll over debt when they need to refinance at higher rates?
Like Sharpe and Sortino, it measures excess return, but relative to its typical drawdown. After the 2000 tech bubble and 2008 financial crisis, which together resulted in a “lost decade” for stocks, investors have grown very sensitive to drawdowns. Martin excels at identifying funds that have delivered superior returns while mitigating drawdowns. It too is best used when comparing funds of same category over same evaluation period – this very comparison is the basis for determining a fund’s MFO Rating metric.
https://secure.alpsinc.com/MarketingAPI/api/v1/Content/dgifund/the-disciplined-growth-investors-fund-pro-20230831.pdfGenerally, shares may be purchased, exchanged or redeemed through retirement plans or directly from the Fund. ...
The Adviser and/or its affiliates may enter into arrangements to make payments for additional activities... These payments are often referred to as revenue sharing payments”
It feels like there are two dominant retail investment strategies:Many ordinary people do not want to think about their investments much, and modern finance has designed a product that is ideally suited for them. It is the index fund (or index exchange-traded fund), whose essential thesis is that thinking about investments is unnecessary and in fact bad, and you should just buy the market and save on costs.1. Buy and hold index funds, or
2. Actively trade individual stocks and, while you’re at it, maybe options or crypto.
Other people, though, do want to think about their investments, and they want to think about investments that are fun to think about: stocks (or options or crypto) that are volatile, stocks of companies that do fun or interesting or world-changing things, stocks of companies with charismatic and entertaining chief executive officers, meme stocks.
There is not much in between. In particular, the whole industry of active mutual fund management is built on the idea that, if you don’t want to manage your investments, you can pay someone else to do it for you. But that idea feels passé in 2023. These days, if you don’t want to manage your investments, the accepted approach is to pay someone else almost nothing to almost not manage them for you: An index fund will do almost no managing and charge almost no fees, and that is widely considered the optimal approach. And if you want to manage your investments, you want to manage your investments; you want to pick fun stocks, not hire a star mutual fund manager to do the stock picking for you.[1]
Where does that leave the active mutual fund managers? Bloomberg’s Silla Brush and Loukia Gyftopoulou report that things are bad for them:Cheery! What do you do about this? One approach is to get into some adjacent business that does not rely on stock-picking; Abrdn “cut the business into three parts: a mutual fund business, a wealth unit that also serves retail investors and a platform for financial advisers — a strategy that has yet to prove it’s working.”Across the $100 trillion asset-management industry, money managers have confronted a tectonic shift in investor appetite for cheaper, passive strategies over the past decade. Now they’re facing something even more dire: The unprecedented run of bull markets that buoyed their investments and masked life-threatening vulnerabilities may be a thing of the past.
About 90% of additional revenue taken in by money managers since 2006 is simply from rising markets, and not from any ability to attract new client money, according to Boston Consulting Group. Many senior executives and consultants now warn that it won’t take much to turn the industry's slow decline into a cliff-edge moment: One more bear market, and many of these firms will find themselves beyond repair. …
More than $600 billion of client cash has headed for the exits since 2018 from investment funds at T. Rowe, Franklin, Abrdn, Janus Henderson Group Plc and Invesco Ltd. That’s more than all the money overseen by Abrdn, one of the UK’s largest standalone asset managers. Take these five firms as a proxy for the vast middle of the industry, which, after hemorrhaging client cash for the past decade, is trying to justify itself in a world that’s no longer buying what it’s selling. …
“It’s a slow but surely declining trajectory,” said Markus Habbel, head of Bain & Co.’s global wealth- and asset-management practice. “There is a scenario for many of these players to survive for a few years while their assets and revenues decline until they die. This is the trend in the majority of the industry.”
The other approach is for active managers to get out of liquid easily indexed public markets and into something else. Abrdn has also “largely abandoned competing in large-cap equity funds, choosing instead to emphasize small-cap and emerging-market strategies.” And of course there is private credit:“Just buy all the stocks” is a cheap and easy investing strategy that is also endorsed by academic research, but “just make private loans to all the buyouts” sort of obviously doesn’t work. So there is room for investment selection, and fees, there.For many other firms, private markets — and, specifically, the private-credit craze — are now the latest perceived savior. Almost everyone, from small to giant stock-and-bond houses, is piling into the asset class, often for the first time. In the past year and a half, a surge in M&A in the space has been driven by such houses, including Franklin, that are eager to offer clients the increasingly popular strategies, which typically charge higher fees. Others have been poaching teams or announcing plans to enter the space.
“I think that’s a big driver for many of these firms — they look at their own financials and think about what’s going to keep us afloat over the next few years,” Amanda Nelson, principal at Casey Quirk asset-management consultancy at Deloitte, said in an interview.
Meanwhile at the Wall Street Journal, Hannah Miao reports that actually retail stock-picking works great:Some of this is about stock selection: Recent years have been good for the stocks that retail investors tend to like.Wall Street has long derided amateur investors as unsophisticated market participants, prone to buying high and selling low. But the typical individual investor’s long-term mindset and penchant for risk-taking has proved fruitful in the technology-driven market of the past decade, defying the “dumb money” caricature.
The average individual-investor stock portfolio has risen about 150% since the beginning of 2014, according to investment research firm Vanda Research, which began tracking the data nine years ago. That beats the S&P 500’s roughly 140% during the same period.But some of it is apparently behavioral: Individual investors can be more contrarian than professionals can.The typical small investor holds an outsize position in megacap tech companies. Apple, Tesla and Nvidia alone make up about 40% of the average individual’s stock portfolio, according to Vanda. Although big tech stocks plunged last year, those investments have dominated the market for most of the past decade and have helped fuel the S&P 500’s 10% advance this year.Crudely speaking, if index funds offer market performance, and retail investors on average outperform the market, then professional investors on average will underperform the market: “Over the past decade, about 86% of all large-cap U.S. equity funds have underperformed the S&P 500, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.”One advantage small investors have over professionals: They don’t have to worry about reporting performance to clients. That helps some individuals feel comfortable riding out market downturns. …
Everyday investors are known to buy the dip, piling into markets during weak periods. Many jumped into stocks in March 2020 when the market plunged at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, and rode the high as shares rebounded.
This seems bad for the big asset managers? They are squeezed from both sides: There is the rise of indexing, but there’s also the pretty good performance of individual investors who pick their own stocks. For a long time now, one argument for active management has been along the lines of “sure index funds look good in a rising market, but wait until the market goes down; then people will see the value of active stock selection.” But in fact people have seen the value of owning a lot of Apple and Tesla, which they can just do on their own. The real argument for active management surely has to be something like “sure index funds and also individual stock trading look good in a market dominated by the biggest names, but wait until Tesla and Apple underperform and the way to make money is by buying stocks that retail investors have never heard of.” Which is a harder pitch.
The FT allows subscribers to share a limited number of articles with non-subscribers, so that link should work for folks who want to look at the argument but don't have an FT account.On average, research shows around 100 per cent of their total returns can be ascribed to their choice of policy benchmark [i.e., their strategic asset allocation], along with around 90 per cent of their return volatility. The outcomes of those judgments are often complex.
Jan Loeys, JPMorgan’s veteran asset allocation guru, says in a recent client note that this complexity is both pointless and counterproductive. Pointless, because investors need only two assets: a global equity one and a local bond one, with the relative amounts driven by their ability to withstand short-term drawdowns and return needs. (Less is more when it comes to strategic asset allocation," FT.com, 10/17/2023)
This year is challenging for smaller cap funds when the broader index is dominated by the large tech stocks. Only one out three, FMIMX, did decently, the rest trailed considerably. So we pause until the market broaden out. Not indexing in the smaller caps for us as many small stocks are not profitable.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2022/09/Picture-this-The-ascent-of-CBDCsCentral bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are digital versions of cash that are issued and regulated by central banks. As such, they are more secure and inherently not volatile, unlike crypto assets. ...
In 1993, the Bank of Finland launched the Avant smart card, an electronic form of cash. ... it can be considered the world’s first CBDC.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2022/09/Point-of-View-the-superficial-allure-of-crypto-Hilary-Allen[Decentralization] was the premise of the initial Bitcoin white paper, which offered a cryptographic solution intended to allow payments to be sent without involving any financial institution or other trusted intermediary. However, Bitcoin became centralized very quickly and now depends on a small group of software developers and mining pools to function. As internet pioneer and publisher Tim O’Reilly observed, “Blockchain turned out to be the most rapid recentralization of a decentralized technology that I’ve seen in my lifetime.”
https://fidelityca.com/non-recourse-loan-financing/WHERE ARE NON-RECOURSE LOANS USED?
These loans are often used to finance commercial real estate projects and other projects that include an extended completion period. In the case of real estate, the land acts as collateral for the loan. A non-recourse loan is also used in financial industries, with securities placed as collateral.
HOW DO I QUALIFY FOR NON-RECOURSE LOANS?
Clearly, the majority of the risk and exposure with non-recourse loans rests with the lender. Therefore, a non-recourse loan may be more difficult to qualify for than a recourse loan. Commercial lenders will often only extend non-recourse loans to finance certain types of properties and only to worthy borrowers. Stable finances and an excellent credit score are two of the most important factors that a lender will look at. Generally, the loan requires the property to be a larger city, be in good condition, and have good historical financials, too.
https://scholarship.law.nd.edu/jleg/vol42/iss2/2/Non-recourse loans are a unique characteristic of the US mortgage market and first emerged in state legislation in the 1930s. A decrease in demand for real estate and the ensuing precipitous drop in prices during the Great Depression led to the realization of mortgages at minimal prices, significantly below their outstanding balances. As a result, not only did borrowers lose the roofs over their heads to lenders but also faced lawsuits by the same lenders for the significant remainder of their debt. This harsh reality caused many states to adopt borrower-friendly legislation. ... In effect it gave the borrower a put option
https://personal.vanguard.com/pub/Pdf/p030.pdf?2210171184Dormant Accounts
If your account has no activity in it for a period of time, Vanguard may be
required to transfer [escheat] it to a state under the state’s abandoned property law,
subject to potential federal or state withholding taxes.
No argument here.
IMO, robo-advisors are nothing more than hyped-up allocation funds that are liked by the younger generation. If one is willing to spend a little time, one can achieve a similar effect with traditional allocation funds (static-allocations; Income, conservative-allocation, moderate-allocation, aggressive-allocation) or TDFs (glide-path allocation). A lot of PR has gone into promoting robo-advisors as something novel when it is just some old wine in new bottles.
https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/vanguard-digital-advice-brochure.pdfVanguard offers a range of different solutions to help you meet your financial goals, including self- directed brokerage services, single fund investments (such as Vanguard’s Target Retirement Funds), and different investment advisory programs. If you are considering investing through a total market index investment setting, you should understand that each of the Four Totals [Total Stock, Total Bond, Total Int'l Stock, Total Int'l Bond] is a share class of the mutual funds that are used (or are substantially similar to the mutual funds used) in Vanguard’s Target Retirement Funds. In certain circumstances, your recommended standard portfolio will contain identical allocations to the four Total Funds that are available in a Vanguard Target Retirement Fund, which is generally available at a lower cost than the Services.
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