@FD1000 Your comment puzzles me. The section of Jessie Livermore's commentary that discusses equity market valuations is fairly bullish. It provides support to the TINA perspective and to a gradual rise in the P/E ratio in the current investing environment. (However, the author does appear to be certain a problem will arise if the P/E ratio eventually approaches infinity!) Your copy and paste list appears to be a carpet bombing attack focused on bearish perspectives. It's not clear how it relates to his comments.
By the way, its my sense you invest as a market technician. Old_Skeet frequently posted comments that provided technical insights relating to stock market conditions. Junkster occasionally offered his technical insights related to bond market conditions. Your posts related to bond fund investing have had a technician's perspective. Hopefully, there will be more of those posts to come.....

In the last several years and especially in the last several months I have heard so many bearish stories and why I made my comment. Most investors shouldn't try to time the market and/or make big changes. My comment included several "experts" to show that even they can't predict the market.
Sure, stocks PE is high and bond yield is low but the long term concepts of investing for most investors should stay about the same.
I'm mostly a bond trader with very specific goals according to our needs: we need just 4% (including inflation) for decades to come to keep our current lifestyle, with that in mind I want to make 6+% average annually + never lose more than 3% from any last top. The trades involve technical aspect but others things such as VIX and my generic perception of current risk/reward. When I trade stocks/ETF/CEFs/GLD/other is usually hours to days and involve mostly technical analysis and/or when I see screaming buy opportunities (I had several in 03/2020)

Is consumer spending still 70% of our GNP? We know who owns the assets. I wonder who does the buying.
I don't see any problem with having a plan to take profits and rebalance according to your situation and comfort level. That may not involve predictions. But it does mean selling from time to time. And doesn't that involve the estimation that while I could make more, I am happy with what I have made so far?

.............Sounds similar to the way I'm operating, these days. Simple portfolio, not many changes to be made---- because I did my homework. The one slightly disappointing aspect these days: RPSIX. Dependable, extremely diversified, bond-wise. A TRP fund full of other TRP bond funds, with a small slice of equities. That equity portion makes it a bit unique, I suppose. Might help add to profits, most years, yes? ...But the monthlies have been getting disappointing. Not awful, just going lower in dribs and drabs. So, I've searched and searched TRP for a different bond fund that's worth anything. (Apart from tax-free, specific-State funds. I've even looked at some of them, too: NJ and VA.) But there's no tax-free advantage for us. TRP is really not a bond shop. I just don't want to go starting brokerage accounts that I've never needed, ever before. ...The other bond funds in our stable: PRSNX, PTIAX. That PRSNX is our 3rd-largest holding, at 21%. RPSIX is number two. (Anyone else notice that a few months ago, PTIAX moved their monthly pay-out date to the MIDDLE of the month??? They must have received too many complaints. Performance is rather GOOD, but they play the game about vested shares and "pending" shares. Screw THAT. I told them I don't want to hear about "pending" shares. My money is green and very real. And they take it automatically from my account, monthly. The withdrawal from my account is never shown as "pending."
... I'm on a rant, so, get on with it... Once, speaking to a "Supervisor," I asked him: "why are there "pending" shares in the first place? Is it because you have too few people hired to do the record-keeping in a TIMELY manner?" And the phone went dead. Until I broke the silence, and said: "Alright, then. THAT'S clear." Good fund. But that whole business sucks dooky from shrews.
https://animals.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Shrew-2-650x425.jpg

Thank you. I read that teenager's brain are not fully developed until they reach 25 years old. So it is not surprising they would engage in large gatherings while most likely not wearing face covering. Not sure the administrators are aware of this. They are under a great deal of financial pressure to reopen the schools.
University setting in lecture halls with > 100 students and in dorms are very challenging to practice social distancing effectively. For those who are in physical science and engineering are having hard time taking their laboratory classes. And there is no good substitute for hands-on learning.
However, several countries including New Zealand, Taiwan, and Singapore are in much better situation where they have reopened their schools. Their death tolls is very small comparing to that of US.

New Fund (RPMGX) has about $34B AUM. Old fund (PRDMX) has about $2B AUM, and has outperformed the larger fund most recently, and over the last 1, 3 and 5 years.
Last 1 year: PRDMX @ 15%, RPMGX @ 10%
Last 3 yrs_: PRDMX @ 16%, RPMGX @ 13%
Last 5 yrs_: PRDMX @ 14%, RPMGX @ 13%
Guessing this is a promotion.
http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=PRDMX
http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=RPMGX

Unfortunately I have to post it again
Over the years we heard the following:
1) US stocks are over value, the rest of the world is undervalue. US stocks did better in the last 10 years.
2) The GMO team and Arnott have been wrong for 10 years.
3) Gundlach was way wrong when he predicted the 10 year will be at 6% in 2021
4) Bogle was wrong when he predicted stocks/bonds performance based on the past and averages.
5) Inflation and interest rates can only go up. Both wrong for years.
6) inverted yield signals recession = wrong. High PE, PE10 signal the end of the bull market...wrong again for years.
7) There is no way stocks will have a V recovery in March 2020 based on blah, blah, whatever...and they did.
8) The economy is bad, unemployment is high, the debt is huge = bad future stock market. The reality? Stocks are still up.
9) If Trump will be elected, it will be a disaster. Reality? stocks were up
10) New predictions a) The new president will be XXXX so do something now b) Covid-19 cases will be up c) China-US relations got worse
The Fed successfully managed to do all the above and why many "experts" were wrong
If you didn't get the message already, most investors should do nothing to very little. Predictions are a flipping coin. Some will be correct just because markets go sometimes down.

@Crash: "Just how is it that Main Street and Wall Street are so very divorced from one another?"
Is this a new thing? It's going on for decades. It's actually got better for main street because indexes + doing nothing worked so well. Wall St + other investment pros used to take more
Wall St and many companies have been playing with the numbers for many years. Example: how come the new earnings beat the estimates at 70+% every time?
What other choice do you have? Stay in cash/MM?
BTW, I don't follow my generic advice, I'm a trader and retired. When I see elevated risk (VIX > 35 + others) I sell a big % of my portfolio but I don't recommend it to anybody.
Another exception: I think the US market is the best long term market so just enjoy and invest. Many investors don't understand markets and think there is a high correlation between markets NOW to the economy, unemployment and others.

"the stock market and the economy is two very different thing" = correct
"A reckoning is coming" investing based on predictions isn't recommended.
Over the years we heard the following:
1) US stocks are over value, the rest of the world is undervalue. US stocks did better in the last 10 years.
2) The GMO team and Arnott have been wrong for 10 years.
3) Gundlach was way wrong when he predicted the 10 year will be at 6% in 2021
4) Bogle was wrong when he predicted stocks/bonds performance based on the past and averages.
5) Inflation and interest rates can only go up. Both wrong for years.
6) inverted yield signals recession = wrong. High PE, PE10 signal the end of the bull market...wrong again for years.
7) There is no way stocks will have a V recovery in March 2020 based on blah, blah, whatever...and they did.
8) The economy is bad, unemployment is high, the debt is huge = bad future stock market. The reality? Stocks are still up.
9) If Trump will be elected, it will be a disaster. Reality? stocks were up
10) New predictions a) The new president will be XXXX so do something now b) Covid-19 cases will be up c) China-US relations got worse
The Fed successfully managed to do all the above and why many "experts" were wrong
If you didn't get the message already, most investors should do nothing to very little. Predictions are a flipping coin. Some will be correct just because markets go sometimes down.

The armchairinvesting forum is what I stood up after leaving M* a few years ago (when lots of ppl there were peeved at the site) but then dropped doing anything with it b/c it wasn't taking off. So it's funny to see him posting there -it's a blast from the recent past.

I stand corrected. How these smaller shops evolved in the last 20 years.

Sometimes things weren't quite as we remember them. Stein Roe was acquired by Liberty (now Columbia), not by Strong. Dick Weiss did move from Stein Roe to Strong, but by switching funds, not by acquisition.

Former Stein Roe employees say that when Richard Weiss, well-known manager of the Special Fund, failed to win support in 1991 for a new institutional equity product that would have capitalized on his existing fund's strong record, he jumped to Milwaukee-based Strong Funds and gathered nearly $2 billion in two years. Mr. Weiss was soon joined at Strong by promising Stein Roe manager Carlene Murphy Ziegler.

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/19951021/ISSUE01/10008554/how-stein-roe-blew-it-once-a-big-name-now-an-also-ran
FWIW, here's a post of mine on the convoluted path of acquisitions that ultimately led to Columbia Threadneedle. Stein Roe was acquired by Liberty, which was acquired by Fleet Boston, which already owned Columbia and rebranded some acquired funds; Fleet Boston (Columbia) was acquired by Bank of America, which sold its funds to Ameriprise.
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/51510/#Comment_51510

I would hope that we do not become distracted and lose sight of the fundamentally dishonest existence of this thread and it's corrosive influence on the long-observed rules of MFO.
If Old Skeet is allowed to have two posting names and two posting "personalities" then we open the doors to anyone and everyone to do the same. I deeply resent the Trump administration's pernicious influence and wanton flouting of the rules that have allowed this country to maintain it's democracy for some two hundred and fifty years.
Now one of that administration's advocates is attempting to operate in the same manner here on MFO. THIS SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO STAND.

Long time ago I invested with their Master Select International fund and left several years later. The concept of running a fund utilizing multiple "star" money mangers was interesting but there is no synergistic between between the stock picks.

I recall the Master Select International fund.
The fund's management lineup in the late 90s/early aughts included: Oakmark (David Herro);
Janus (Helen Young Hayes); and Artisan (Mark Yockey).
They were some of the most renowned international equity managers at the time.
I never held MSILX but had invested in other funds run by these managers (OAKIX, JAOSX, ARTJX).

Dick Weiss. Now that's a name I haven't heard in a long time. In the 90s (and somewhat beyond), he managed Strong Opportunity, a good midcap value fund. It became Wells Opportunity when Wells Fargo acquired Strong Funds.
Here's a 1999 M* Fund Spy column with a few paragraphs in the middle about Weiss and the management of Strong Opportunity.
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1402/morningstar-fund-spy
The industry pulls so many sleights of hand that one has to wonder about reorganizations that include some oddities. All the Litman Gregory Masters funds changed names just seven weeks ago to PartnerSelect. This reorganization is supposedly due in part to small size ($18.9M) but is a merger into an even smaller fund PFSVX ($9.9M).
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1020425/000168386320012117/f6483d1.htm
That latter fund was formed just after the name change, and unlike the "Masters" funds, has only one submanagement company. It looks like it could be a shell fund designed for various purposes, including the stated purpose of carrying over losses from MSSFX and an unstated purpose of burying that fund's performance history.
Perhaps Litman Gregory is moving away from the multi-manager concept (and poor records) and this is just the first step. MSEFX is a large cap fund with just $230M, a high ER (1.21%), and a miserable bottom 10% record over all time spans (from 1 month up to 15 years). Further, Dick Weiss, who is retiring, is this fund's only remaining original manager.

Thought LITMAN GREGORY has gone to advisory only.
Long time ago I invested with their Master Select International fund and left several years later. The concept of running a fund utilizing multiple "star" money mangers was interesting but there is no synergistic between between the stock picks. The end result of was higher level of volatility (than funds with a single manager/team) and offered very little downside protection during drawdown. I stayed with a total international index fund for awhile and slowly selected a few actively managed funds (slowly).

This is from someone who as been playing defense for last 15-20 years. Been a while since I visited the site and for good reason.
My answer to the question - Sell deep OTM options. Pay taxes. No one went broke paying taxes. The last 5 months have been the best of my investing life. Based on your risk tolerance level invest in index funds, then take half of your cash and try to earn income on it. Enough defense you will need IMO.
I've been generating $500 consistently with $20000 in my Vanguard account without ANY trouble every month. That's a 2.5% return per month. That's 30% a year. Pay taxes.

While I think a break is necessary, it's important to remember Old_Skeet's and then FD1000's goal was to silence political discussions by trolling the site with ones from dubious rightwing sources. So effectively they've won. They had no real interest in having any rational discussions on these subjects, and these discussions had gone on for years without any site overload until now. I do think if Off Topic is reinstated, the noise will die down after the election.
I would add this troll data-dump strategy is commonplace in the corporate world. If any individual tries to sue a company, instead of withholding information companies often will send over a hundred boxes of nonsense info to weed through or try to tie the case up in court through appeals, knowing plaintiffs don't have the resources to continue fighting. It is a way of silencing any opposition.
To me silence is not apolitical. If you see a man bleeding on the street and you do nothing, you are suffering from depraved indifference. Issues like climate change, taxation, Fed policy and government regulation have a direct impact on investing yet are also political ones. Saying we're not going to discuss those and only focus on making money in the markets is tacit approval of whatever the status quo is. That status quo is a libertarian "I wanna make money any way I can and I don't care about the consequences" one.

Nuts. Lost my (draft) note to VF. (sigh) I'll try again.
Hi!
Mr. O. didn't run POGSX 20 years ago. When he came onboard, he began moderating its aggressiveness and ended up outperforming the S&P 500 pretty substantially. ($10K grew to about $30K with him and $25K with the S&P 500 during his stint at POGSX.) I have no idea of why he left Oak Associates, through that difference of styles might have had some relevance. In any case, it's a LCV with cash for now.
Mr. C. got killed in 2000-02. I think he learned from the experience. The SEC permitted Osterweis to include his private partnership in the fund's prospectus, so there's about a 10 year record with about 200 bps of annual outperformance. It does not appear that the returns reflect excessive risk; standard deviation is a bit high, but all of the other measures of risk and risk-adjusted returns are at or below average.
As always, the goal is not to flog a fund - in either the positive or negative sense - just to be sure we're willing to look at places that we'd normally write off without much examination.
Cheers, David

I see PVMCX and TMSRX, both funds I own now, the latter for my MIL, the former after taking tax loss in PVFIX.
I am appalled Oelschlager and Callinan can still point to their records when it is clear they can ONLY make money in one kind of market. One that simply lets you throw darts at the index. Food for thought, imagine you had invested in POGSX 20 years back. Please go and see how much money you would have today. Some track record.

I have owned MERFX and ARBIX for years
They haven't done much at all. Total position is up 6% since 1/2019

You can get bunch of agents that makes cars smell good and these also has amount of addictive stimulants in them;
We drive our car so infrequently that after three years it still has that "new car smell". So now I know why we so much look forward to our monthly excursions to Costco. :-)
Is the "New Car Smell" Toxic For You
https://www.motorbiscuit.com/is-the-new-car-smell-toxic-for-you/