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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Precious Metals
    Let's keep this in perspective... so far I'm doing OK with this, but I don't consider this so much as an "investment", but rather simply gambling money. Rono's been actually investing in precious metals for years, and knows his way around the block.
  • New First Eagle ETF's
    news release:
    https://www.diamond-hill.com/news/a-872/articles/diamond-hill-to-be-acquired-by-first-eagle-investments/
    Excerpt:
    ...First Eagle’s investment capabilities span equity, fixed income, alternative credit, and multi-asset strategies. The acquisition would markedly increase First Eagle’s footprint in traditional fixed income, which has been an area of significant growth for Diamond Hill in recent years. Diamond Hill’s US-focused multi-cap equity platform represents a strong complement to First Eagle’s existing Global Value and Small Cap teams. Following the close of the transaction, Diamond Hill will maintain its headquarters in Columbus and operate under its existing brand, with no changes to its investment philosophy or process.
  • Precious Metals
    Howdy folks,
    I've got an article and FB post by a long time friend of mine, Pat Heller. He founded Liberty Coin here in Lansing and I've been dealing with him for over 30 years. In all honesty, I would classify him as a coin dealer, gold bug, civil libertarian. Here is the FB post from the Liberty Coin Service page.
    "Today we have seen the greatest percentage one-day decline in silver's price and among the largest percentage one-day declines in gold, platinum, and palladium prices.
    At the low points today, gold dropped to $4,690.25, silver fell to $75.14, platinum to $2,011.00, and palladium to $1,600.00
    If this truly represented a genuine financial market shift, you would be seeing confirmations of similar declines in other commodities, stocks, and the like. As of a couple minutes ago copper was only down -3.9% from yesterday while Brent crude oil and natural gas prices were actually higher. Major US stock indices are down, but less than 2%.
    By the way, the Shanghai Gold Exchange weighted average silver price today as $129.35 on a volume of 17.1 million ounces. This was a decline of about $4 from yesterday. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange the closing price for the February 2026 silver contract was at $126.16 per ounce. Obviously there are major buyers for physical silver for immediate delivery at prices much higher than they are at the moment.
    What can be surmised from today's changes only in precious metals is that this was not a standard correction move, since it wasn't confirmed in other financial markets. Instead, it is a pretty blatant coordinated action to manipulate downward only precious metals prices.
    Naturally, none of the COMEX precious metals prices are reporting closing markets yet today, just as they were extremely delayed yesterday. This by itself is suspicious about market manipulation going on behind the scenes.
    As of a few minutes ago, here were the ask spot prices at which Liberty Coin Service was calculating its selling prices for physical precious metals products:
    Gold: $4,930.00
    Silver: $87.16
    Platinum: $2,193.00
    Palladium: $1,741.00
    Already today Liberty Coin Service has experienced our highest daily retail sales in more than a decade. Expect precious metals prices to recover even more, though it may take a few days or a week or two for gold to again top $5,000 and silver to reach $100.
    One question to ask is why engage in such aggressive price suppression tactics today. Today is the final trading day of the month, which is used by technical chart traders in making investment decisions.
    Today's price declines were magnified as falling prices heavily impacted recent buyers who made leveraged investments. The declines were so great that probably a high percentage of the were forced to liquidate positions, which added to downward prices. Now that these "weak hands" buyers are out of the market, it is almost certain that continuing downward pressure is pretty much over. When there's no one left to sell other than a handful of panicking small-time investors, prices are almost certain to go back up from now going forward."
    Here is Pat's article for Numismatic News, which along with Coin World is one of the leading papers on coin collecting. Pat's a regular contributor.
    https://www.numismaticnews.net/increasing-capacity-problems-in-the-physical-silver-market?fbclid=IwY2xjawPrI7VleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETFJNW5ybWt3YzY5ZENuWHJlc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHii_13KIqUewP3aStgMm7xIh0HMD8PEQJsDbjmm-UbsA6V64_Ev3TCP08c07_aem_e3tGkTxbUzgMTBucc2BXZg
    Right now are starting to remind me of Nixon's gas price controls. All of a sudden, all the stations were out of gas.
    The current spot [read: paper] price is $85.91. An American Silver Eagle at Apmex is $106.87 with a credit card. Now, that is a serious premium. Overseas, silver for delivery is going for upwards of $120.
    Here's a nice article from Kitco.
    and so it goes,
    peace,
    rono
  • Precious Metals
    Barron's features at least 3 stories on the precious metals in their Feb. 2 edition. I haven't had time to read, but wouldn't attempt to characterize the content even if I had. Steven Sears writes almost exclusively about hedging risky assets with options trades. So, likely what that one is about.
    Gold Is Soaring and Wall Street Calls It 'Debasement! Is It?
    By Jack Hough

    Silver Is Paying for Its Excesses.
    Silver Miner Stocks May Be a Buy

    By Andrew Bary
    Can Silver Go Higher Still? How to Play It Safer.
    By Steven M. Sears
    I think it's important to recognize that @rono and @Old_Joe did not enter the market Thursday and incur the total loss Friday. Both have played the market for a while and have handsome profits to this point.
    I'm mostly a bottom feeder - grubbing out what I perceive as lower risk opportunities. So haven played in the metals for at least 2 years. My real assets fund, RAPAX, has a bit of exposure and fell 2% Friday. For contrast, T.Rowe's real asset fund PRAFX fell 4% and PRPFX was off -6.26% - and was late in reporting Friday for whatever reason. The closest one-day experience I can relate to here is when I bought a slim chunk of CZR last fall and it dropped 15% the very next day. I sold on the way down so probably ate a 10% loss. No longer own.
  • Truth Social God Bless America ETF in registration
    The fund has already been around since Oct 10, 2022. While the investment adviser is changing from Tidal Investments LLC to Yorkville America Equities LLC, the main task of the investment adviser is to select and oversee the day-to-day subadviser. That was, and remains, Curran Financial Partners. Likewise, the actual managers (Messrs. Curran, Venuto, and Ragauss) survive the reorganization.
    As the predecessor fund (i.e. the fund being reorganized) has been around for over three years, I don't see much reason why the fund should not continue to exist for at least another three. Well, there is the fact that while it got off to a good start (1st percentile in 2023, 3rd percentile in 2024), it has floundered a bit in the current administration (68th percentile in 2025 and 79th percentile YTD). But in terms of raw numbers, it hasn't underperformed by much in those years.
  • Precious Metals
    Actually, I've placed a couple of limit orders at $30 for SILJ and $60 for SLVR. Most likely too low, but I guess that we'll see. They both recoved a bit in after-hours. rono has been doing this for many years, is not a speculator, and I trust his judgement. In fact, we went through the Hunt brothers thing way back when.
  • Truth Social God Bless America ETF in registration
    To the ash-heap of ETFs within 3 years ... b/c there's no way they'll kill an ETF of 'his' during his term occupying the oval office.
  • Morningstar Trailing Returns For Load Funds
    Hi there. Others have already covered it, I think, but for avoidance of doubt: We ordinarily present total returns (not load adjusted). Also, we revised the Star Rating methodology some years ago to remove the load adjustment from the calculation. As such, it's not present there, either.
    To my knowledge, the only return figures we display that are load-adjusted by default are post-tax returns (as I believe the SEC stipulates that calc be load adjusted, if I'm not mistaken).
    I hope this is helpful.
    Regards,
    Jeff Ptak
    Morningstar Research Services
  • How would a UST attack on Iran affect the stock market/your investment decisions?
    US has no business to invade Iran. Have we anything learned from Vietnam and Iraqi ? At the end, there was no desirable political outcomes achieved, except it costed too many lives (service men & women and civilians). Where was the draft dodger with his bone spurs? Have he ever send his kids to any war?
    It was George Bush’s mistake to topple Iraq the second time due to Hussan’s weapons of mass destruction. There was none after extensive search by the inspector. In the meanwhile, it destabilized that region where Iran and Iraq were arch enemy to each other. They fought a 10 years war that yielded nothing. Iran became stronger without Iraq. So what does US gained ? Think the bush administration was ill advised / lied to when they convinced Congress to authorize the invasion. We have come the full circle and will be making the same mistakes again.
    As @observant1 and @Old_Joe posted above, the invasion will need to put boots on the ground and the consequences is clear to see from previous wars with Vietnam and Iraqi. Where is Congress ?
  • Morningstar Trailing Returns For Load Funds
    This is similar to what you find in prospectuses. They have a table of 1/5/10 year returns with and w/o loads, but all other data - calendar year returns, financials - exclude loads.
    The impact of a load diminishes, or doesn't, over time depending on how you look at it.
    If you buy a fund with a 5% load like SGENX, then the value of your investment will always be 100/105, or about 95.2% as much as it would have been without the load. A 4.8% reduction in value. No matter how many years you hold the investment.
    (Though if you sell after just one year, there's an added 1% deferred sales charge, so your investment value is actually reduced to 100/105 x 99/100 = 99/105 or about 94.3% of what it would have been without the loads.)
    On the other hand, viewed in terms of (geometric) average annual returns, a 5% load diminishes annual returns by (100/105) ^ (1/number of years).
    So over 1 year, the average annual return is multiplied by 95.2% (ignoring backend load). The annual return is reduced by about 4.8%.
    While over 5 years, the average annual return is multiplied by (100/105) ^ (1/5) or 99.0%. Annual returns are reduced by about a percent. Because that reduction takes place each year, after five years (and compounding) that adds up to the same 4.8% reduction in final value.
    [^ means to the power of, e.g. 10^2 = 100]
  • Country ETFs Crushing It
    ...With the ballooning $38 trillion dollars deficit...
    Confused here. I thought the Big Obscene Bill was going to raise the deficit over 10 years to $7.1 trillion.
    Which is a doubling of the current state of affairs? (July, '25.) So we were told, eh?

    The total gross national debt was $38.40 trillion as of 12/03/2025.
    The "One Big Beautiful Bill" was estimated to increase budget deficits by $4.1 trillion
    from FY 2025 - FY 2034 according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
    These projections were made using CBO's January 2025 baseline and are subject to a degree of uncertainty.
    https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/cbo-estimates-the-fiscal-impact-of-the-one-big-beautiful-bill/
    Oh, my. But thanks for the clarification.
  • Country ETFs Crushing It
    ...With the ballooning $38 trillion dollars deficit...
    Confused here. I thought the Big Obscene Bill was going to raise the deficit over 10 years to $7.1 trillion.
    Which is a doubling of the current state of affairs? (July, '25.) So we were told, eh?
    The total gross national debt was $38.40 trillion as of 12/03/2025.
    The "One Big Beautiful Bill" was estimated to increase budget deficits by $4.1 trillion
    from FY 2025 - FY 2034 according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
    These projections were made using CBO's January 2025 baseline and are subject to a degree of uncertainty.
    https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/cbo-estimates-the-fiscal-impact-of-the-one-big-beautiful-bill/
  • Country ETFs Crushing It
    Yes. Foreign holdings are doing well this year. I have no equity etfs, foreign or domestic. My Australian equity CEF (IAF) is up over 11% YTD. Just sold a bit off in a rebalance. I think the biggest single driver here is the fall in the U.S. Dollar - about 10% lower against a basket of currencies over one year according to The Guardian. One way to boost a currency is for a country's central bank to raise interest rates. There is a strong correlation. So be careful what you wish for.
    Not familiar with Baby Pips, but I do think their 3-point explanation of why the Dollar has weakened is accurate.
    The U.S. has long outperformed foreign markets. At least 75% of the commentators / pundits I've listened to in recent months feel the U.S. equity market is overvalued relative to many foreign markets - particularly large caps. I don't have the expertise to know, but suspect they're correct.
    Perhaps unrelated - but interesting. Microsoft (MSFT) tumbled 10% today. That had to upset a few fund carts!
    @Obsevant1 - The performance of U.S. stocks versus foreign stocks has historically been cyclical.U.S. stocks will outperform foreign stocks for a number of years.
    A transition occurs and then foreign stocks often take the lead for years.
    The duration and timing of this cycle are, of course, unpredictable.

    Yes. A bit like the tides. A single congressional bill, political pronouncement, central bank action isn't likely to alter the course. Over time, of course, those things add up and do exert a powerful effect.
    I've spent hours this week looking for bargain stocks in the Pacific (non-China) area to add to my newly created stock basket. Frustrating because most of the good ones are up so much over the past year. I did bite this morning and picked up a few shares of MQBKY. Fairly valued, but the $150 share price makes it a bit challenging to integrate. (No fractional trading on ADRs)
  • Country ETFs Crushing It
    ...With the ballooning $38 trillion dollars deficit...
    Confused here. I thought the Big Obscene Bill was going to raise the deficit over 10 years to $7.1 trillion. Which is a doubling of the current state of affairs? (July, '25.) So we were told, eh?
  • New First Eagle ETF's
    Started trading USFE - First Eagle US Equity ETF
    FEMD - First Eagle Mid Cap Equity
    I have owned from First Eagle SGIIX for years and FEGE when it started trading.
    High quality managers.
    Thanks for sharing.
  • Tesla - Big changes afoot
    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/29/musks-20-billion-spending-plan-signals-tesla-of-yesterday-is-gone.html
    They are eliminating two legacy models, after years of neglecting to refresh them. They are putting that plant to work building robots. And doubling-down on autonomous driving. And they apparently want to produce their own chips.
    Automotive competition is coming on hard, and they seem set on side-stepping that challenge. Making their own chips makes certain sense, but will take a long time and is not guaranteed to succeed. It is not that different from them choosing to build their own battery facilities.
    The robots? I can understand building industrial robots for specialized automation demands. But, household humanoid robots? Sure sounds like another wacky Musk fixation, that has no real market, like the Cybertruck.
    Who is really going to buy these things? I have more of a smart home than probably 98% of people, and would never buy such a thing.
  • How would a UST attack on Iran affect the stock market/your investment decisions?
    I have to wonder how many years we would need to stay there and how many more American service people would need to give their bodies and lives in the bottomless quicksand of Mideast religious and political antagonism.
  • New First Eagle ETF's
    Does the fact the First Eagle was bought in 2025 concern you? Years ago I had a good run with Sogen international,,, recall the manager was Evilard, I think.
  • High-Yield Bond Market
    "Fifteen years ago, 41% of the high-yield bond market was rated BB—the rung just below
    investment-grade bonds, which have a lower risk of default—or better.
    A decade ago, those bonds were 49% of the market.
    Today, the credit quality of the high-yield bond market has improved,
    with roughly 59% of the market rated BB or better."
    "But that doesn’t mean those low-quality issuers have gone away.
    For starters, there are still plenty of bonds in the high-yield market with higher default risks.
    That said, many low-quality issuers are raising money elsewhere—namely, the leveraged loan market
    and the private credit market, where they can borrow money at more flexible terms."
    https://www.morningstar.com/bonds/why-there-is-lot-less-junk-high-yield-bond-market
  • New First Eagle ETF's
    Started trading USFE - First Eagle US Equity ETF
    FEMD - First Eagle Mid Cap Equity
    I have owned from First Eagle SGIIX for years and FEGE when it started trading.
    High quality managers.