Marks as always leaves the door open just in case he is wrong.
In the memo he discussed a bubble at length.
He also said in the beginning
"All of my observations will be generalities, but I’m hopeful they’ll be relevant nonetheless."
What is the purpose of discussing a bubble in 01/2025 and reminds us about a similar call 25 years?
There is only one conclusion.
He was wrong !!

FD - do yourself a favor and go re-read the memo I linked at the beginning of this discussion only this time put on your thinking and comprehension hats if you have them.
At no point in the memo did Marks call for a bubble. If you can find it in the memo please do share. Here is what he did say:
"As I said at the start of this memo, I’m not an equity investor, and I’m certainly no expert on technology. Thus, I can’t speak authoritatively about whether we’re in a bubble. I just want to lay out the facts as I see them and suggest how you might think about them . . . just as I did 25 years ago."

marks has never written to offer monthly advice. his main talent has been to deploy loads of committed capital at mkt lows in high tiers of capital structures. that is the only 'signal' one will get, and maybe that is also gone within the maze of brookfield.
where i do fault marks is his ever-insistent emphasis on 'risk' without proving any practical means of assessing such for the self-investor.

I discussed that as well. His memos have always been long and convoluted, filled with commentary but very little actionable guidance. After years of avoiding a clear stance, he finally called a bubble last January.

529 have improved a lot over the years due to regulatory changes and plan improvements (M* rates them and that may be a reason). Posters who looked at them years ago and didn't like them (then) should take another look.
Now, the education is defined broadly by 529 as almost anything legal/ accredited/ approved beyond high school. So, that may be community colleges, certifications, apprenticeships, 4-yr colleges, graduate schools, even some approved foreign schools.
Actually, limited $amounts are also allowed for K-12 education and student loan payments.
A lifetime max of $35K funds can be transferred to beneficiary's Roth IRA.
If there is money left still, the beneficiary can be changed to a family member.
If the beneficiary has serious disabilities, 529 money can be transferred to 529A or 529 ABLE that can support the kid for lifetime without jeopardizing other government aid.
If all that is exhausted, you can withdraw and pay 10% penalty and tax.

@DrVenture - Barron's had a positive article on GHC Graham Holdings about 5 or 6 years ago. I bought some and messed with it for a couple years before letting it go. Guess I ended up with a small profit. It finally took off and must have doubled or tripled in short order after I let it go. To a lesser extent I think they've made a decent call on NSGRY within past couple years. I finally gave up on the turkey. Fell from $140 to $80 over maybe 5 pr 6 years. Last look it was around $100.
BTW - I bought RIO on Barron's advice roughly 5-6 years ago and did quite well with it. I found it a better stock for trading in and out of rather than holding. I've been looking for an entry point but haven't bought back in.
M* has extensive stock ratings / reviews. But doesn't hold a candle to Barron's. M* basically crunches the numbers. Barron's goes a lot deeper considering intangibles, competitors, overall industry health and trends.

@Yogibb’s link is a great start to invest for college using 529 plan. Follow the link and get information you need.
Should get their social security number immediately, and the child is the beneficiary and you are the owner of the 529 account. That would be a wonderful way to pass on your legacy to your grand child.
We done exactly that for our kids. 18 years of compounding saved enough to fully fund their 4-year tuition.

Board was kind of slow so I tossed the Barron's picks out there. Not my recommendations. I'm with @Crash when it comes to looking for less crowded trades.
Re Barron's - better than a 500 batting average. But some of their picks take years to pan out and may drop a lot farther before turning up. Tries anyone's patience.

d

@hank
I hear that. I bought ADBE not long ago and am still regretting it. But, I imagine it will have its day and I will recoup, or even gain. It only makes up .14% of my portfolio, but still irks me.
Don't hesitate to post "lists", we are all adults here, with few exceptions. lol

Board was kind of slow so I tossed the Barron's picks out there. Not my recommendations. I'm with @Crash when it comes to looking for less crowded trades.
Re Barron's - better than a 500 batting average. But some of their picks take years to pan out and may drop a lot farther before turning up. Tries anyone's patience.
d

I let my mutual funds own that stuff. Or not. Ten names out of 50 bazillion. Sure. In my single-stock collection, I look for less crowded trades. MSGS will surely be a winner, in season and out of season...

Same here, for the most part. I do like to have a list ready for big market pullbacks. Which is how I acquired AMZN at $85 a few years back.

My point for years is that future predictions is a fool errand.
I have never invested based on the future, only based on current markets and they can be illogical and longer than anyone can predict.

Over the years, I’ve posted versions of the above many times. I’ve also pointed out that Marks rarely offers actionable guidance, instead publishing a great deal of commentary and fluff. When he finally did take a stance, I posted that I'm going to wait. It turns out his call for 2025 turned out to be wrong as well.

I've owned BMY for years.
CMCSA is on my watch list, primarily as an broadband infrastructure play. If/when it crosses a 5% yield I plan to start nibbling if I have cash available...

It is healthy to see value stocks are making a come back. Broadening out to the other 493 stocks is beneficial to the market. S&P500 index has over 30% in tech today. A much higher weighing than the historical weighing. Two of my three defensive sectors are doing well: utility and healthcare, and consumer staples is lagging.
In additional, international value stocks are outperforming growth stocks, and that is quite a turnaround for many years.
@crash, we like to have a balanced portfolio, 50/50 stock/bond allocation. Getting a modest return above inflation is good enough for us. Besides we like to sleep well despite this year’ turmoil and chaos.

Don't knock slide rule. It required discovery of logarithms & mechanical ingenuity. Slide rule lasted 350 years. I still have mine in a drawer.

Do folks know much about Diamond Hill?
I don't, but do invest with First Eagle.

The following information was excerpted from Morningstar's Parent Rating (Oct. 14, 2024)
for Diamond Hill Capital Management.
"Diamond Hill Capital Management’s clear identity, strong manager ownership, and willingness
to close strategies to protect existing investors earn it an Above Average Parent Pillar rating.
Current CEO Heather Brilliant has made strides in transforming this Columbus, Ohio-based boutique
from a plucky, founder-led mutual fund shop into an institutionally focused operation.
Brilliant, who took over in July of 2019—the same year key personnel decamped to a new firm
started by founder and former CEO and chairman Ric Dillon—has closed noncore services,
such as Diamond Hill's private asset-management business, and hived off strategies
that did not fit with the firm's intrinsic value investing ethos, such as its high-yield capabilities."
"Changes at the publicly traded firm are ongoing, but it remains a sound steward.
It is devoted to bottom-up,long-term, value-oriented equity and fixed-income investing
and has refocused on that core competency since Brilliant (who used to work for Morningstar) arrived.
In recent years, the firm has invested in building and promoting its core and short-term fixed-income teams,
filing to launch two new strategies for them in 2024. To improve equity analyst recruitment,
retention, development, and accountability, the family hired a full-time director of research,
who has formalized the research team's processes, upped expectations, attracted experienced new hires,
and parted ways with some members who had not adapted to the new standards."

It's a strange world where the indexes are setting records and VEIRX is beating SPY YTD and over 12 months, and FMIEX is beating QQQ over the same time frames.
Speaking of the 500, I have to go back 10 years on my watch list to see SPY crack the top 15 funds on my watch list. Now where would it have been without the MAG 7, and FAANG, and tech? I'm not smart enough to do that kind of figuring.
I could look at SPXT, but that still includes Amazon, two flavors of Alphabet, and Meta currently in the top four spots. It only goes back 10 years. Over that time frame it has returned 11.2%, and VEIRX has beat it. So have a lot of other funds.
If I go back 15 years SPY is only in the top 11 funds, and it has a lot less competition. What's holding it back? My guess is the competition is doing a better job of picking and weighting tech, and tech adjacent stocks. Of course there is also BBLU, which might be winning through the old sports formula of addition by subtraction. M* includes the performance of BBLU's OEF predecessor in some cases, but not all.

"As of last night, 500 Index (VFIAX) has gained 17.7% this calendar year.
That’s on the heels of returning 26.2% in 2023 and 25.0% in 2024.
Even if 2025’s return doesn’t crack the 20% line, there’s no denying that 500 Index shareholders
have enjoyed a terrific run—compounding at a 22.9% annual pace."
"The chart below shows 500 Index’s rolling three-year annualized returns (based on calendar years).
If 2025 ends around the 22.9% mark, this three-year window would land well above the fund’s 12.2%
long-term average—ranking as the fifth-best three-year stretch since the index fund’s 1976 inception.
The only better periods? The late-1990s tech bubble and 2019–2021."
https://www.independentvanguardadviser.com/weekly-brief-three-great-years-now-keep-expectations-in-check/

I've got no expectations to pass through here again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URyqGD99Owg

....."That's what I want."

SLVR up 4.82% !
After rono posted a number of weeks ago I bought 30 shares just for the hell of it. It gets really boring with everything in CDs, Treasuries, and MMKTs.
So far ahead $326 on SLVR, and $272 on SILJ. Both have been up and down- fun to watch.

Wow. You need to buy rono a drink.

Hard to lose in stocks for the last 3 years. It is a little spooky.

Yes. It is.

Hard to lose in stocks for the last 3 years. It is a little spooky.

The SP500 made money 80+% of the years since 1980.
All I care is how to make money every week and hardly lose it.

Howdy folks,
I've been following the GSR for years now and I'm in the camp that it's skewed. Why? Various and sundry reasons. Here is a brief history.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080316/historical-guide-goldsilver-ratio.asp
Right now it's at 68 to 1. Recently it was over 100 to 1. Historically, until they went to fiat currencies, it was 15 to 1. Now, they talk about using it in your investing in PMs in the article, but I don't care for their method of going long on one and shorting the other. You're guessing the direction it's going to move AND you're shorting one of the PMs. Sketchy at best. More simple is to buy both metals in the same percentage as the ratio. If it's 100 to 1, you buy 100 ounces of silver to 1 ounce of gold. When it reverts to the mean and drops back to, let's say, 60 to 1, you buy 60 and 1, but your existing stack of silver from the previous purchase is worth much more. This approach works great with a DCA approach to acquiring a stash.
Of note, silver just broke thru $61 an ounce before falling back slightly. For the record, I bought my first roll of American Silver Eagles for a total of $85 including S&H when silver was around $4. As I write, a roll is around $1400 not including S&H. And BTW, I was still buying last week.
The issue with silver is the lack of supply in the face of enormous industrial demand. All solar, EVs, electronics, military technology, photography, medicine creates a huge demand that is not going away. Supply is drastically restricted because over 70% of mined silver is a by-product of other base metal mining (i.e. lead, zinc, copper). Oh, and try to bring a new silver mine online in the near term.
Pretty basic stuff, boys and girls.
and so it goes,
peace,
rono