It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!
My somewhat limited experience (all vicarious) with advisory services suggests that each provider slices and dices their offerings into so many different packages that it's difficult to tell one from another. Even the names confuse matters.The Fund is closed to new accounts for investors not enrolled in Vanguard Flagship Services® or Vanguard Personal Advisor Services®. Clients of these services may open new Fund accounts, investing up to $25,000 per Fund account per year as described below, in individual, joint, and/or personal trust registrations.
[snip]
@hank,
Good questions!
I'm not an expert on robo-advisors.
I recently worked with Vanguard Personal Advisor Services (PAS)
to create a financial plan as a trial exercise.
My thoughts are below.
- Are these robo’s aware that bonds recently experienced a 30 year bull market? That aberration affected not only bond returns. It also likely distorted other asset performance as well. Are robos capable of distinguishing between what worked over the last 30 years during falling interest rates and what might work over the next 2 or 3 decades?
Vanguard PAS uses the Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM) to forecast returns for stocks,
bonds, short-term reserves as well as inflation rates.
The VCCM uses a statistical analysis of historical data for interest rates, inflation,
and other risk factors for global equities, fixed income, and commodity markets
to generate forward-looking distributions of expected long-term returns.
I don't know what models other robo-advisors are using nor which factors they consider.
- Does the robo take into consideration the difference between very low / negative inflation over the preceding 2 or 3 decades and the likely inflation scenario going forward? Can it comprehend and factor in how that monumental sea change might turn return on different assets on their heads? Assets that outperformed over a period of low inflation may not be the best ones in a radically different economic backdrop.
Please refer to my answer above.
- Are these robos aware of the growing friction with China, Russia and how that may affect EM investments? Do they take into account the rise of populism around the world and growing political instability in many Western nations?
I don't think robo-advisors' models factor in rising populism or frictions with China/Russia.
- Would robos have correctly foreseen the tech revolution in say 1975 (excuse the oxymoron) and would they have recommended the best investments over the next quarter century? Can they properly assess the impact AI may / may not have on investments?
Robo-advisors could not have predicted the tech revolution nor can they properly assess the impact of AI.
- Can a robo correctly identify a bubble in an asset class and warn its clients to steer clear in a timely manner? (By definition, most humans cannot.) Or, might the robo have had you invested in Japan in the mid-90?
Robo-advisors can not identify bubbles in an asset class beforehand.
However, their models may underweight "overvalued" assets.
[snip]
The users have the ability to input a number of variables into the model and it generates the probability of outcomes. That model works well with index funds but not so much with active managed funds. Nevertheless, I came to appreciate asset allocation as the most direct factor on long term return. @lynnbolin 2021 also mentioned Financial Engines in a recent post.
Is this the example you were shown?
I just got off the call with this guy [at Wealth Enhancement Group]. I was generally impressed. ( While he was not calling form his yacht, he was calling from second home in Maine!) They have a model which will calculate Roth Conversions and expected taxes with breakeven points ( Example says 2040!). Assumes 5% return in taxable and 7% in Roth
That is certainly in line with the industry:
They will do financial plan free of any fees, but of course want to manage your money. The fee is fairly reasonable at 1% for first 1,000,000 up to 0.7% over 5,000,000, so in line with most firms that do portfolio management only, and a bit higher than many mutual funds.
As @hank observed, Vanguard builds a glidepath. I noted in the Robo advisor thread that per M* this is unusual for low cost (i.e. robo) advisors. Also note that that 20% international is out of 60% stock, i.e. 1/3 of equity is foreign. Vanguard, being enthusiastic about matching market attributes, observes that 40% of the equity market is abroad.
I agree the Vanguard info is pretty comprehensive, but to me it is predictably Vanguard, ie 60/40, 20% International, tax loss harvesting. Not sure that is worth their fees which I think are 0.3% correct ?
Thanks, OJ!@Observant1- In the many years that I've been with MFO I've never seen anyone present such complete, detailed and interesting information with respect to a retirement plan that was recommended by a financial firm. Nice job! It should be useful to other MFO members, and initiate some healthy conversations.
Regards- OJ
Earlier this year, Romick delivered the keynote at Morningstar’s investment conference, reflecting on his 30 years of successful investing across multiple cycles.
We asked Romick to share insights and lessons learned navigating major crises like the tech bubble, financial crisis, COVID crash, and 2022’s meltdown. Interestingly, he believes Crescent has survived by “first considering what can go wrong.”
Hear Romick’s wisdom on defensive investing, managing risk, contrarian thinking, and preparing for an uncertain future—a rare chance to learn from a legendary investor.
© 2015 Mutual Fund Observer. All rights reserved.
© 2015 Mutual Fund Observer. All rights reserved. Powered by Vanilla