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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Allocation funds
    My apologies. While my inputs to PV were as described, that tool apparently refused to analyze more than a decade. Rather than indicate an input error, it generated returns over roughly ten years: Oct 2010 - Aug 2019. At least that's how it labeled the output.
    The general point remains - MPinto may not have added value. The good performance can be explained by the Janus growth style.
    (Based on the two sets of figures, what PV output for a decade and what you report from M* over roughly 15 years, we can say that Wellington has done better over the past decade; Janus Balanced was better in the five years preceding that.)
    BTW, $10K in Wellington grew by $21,269, not to $21,269. See M* graph here.
    Regarding Puritan, like Wellington it outperformed JABAX over the past decade. Which suggests not so much that it should have done better given its growth leanings, but rather that JABAX was the anomaly, as it outperformed by a wide margin in 2007-2008. Which in turn suggests taking a closer look at the other 40% of the portfolio, i.e. the bonds. (For example, treasuries did well around 2008, other types of bonds more poorly.)
    If (and I haven't looked into this) bonds are indeed the reason for the outperformance of JABAX between 2005 and 2010, then that advantage was lost in 2016 when Smith left. That's something you might want to take a closer look at.
  • Allocation funds
    Greetings, Y'all.
    I held FPACX in my portfolio from 2010 - or earlier - until the end of 2018.
    My reasons for dumping it were:
    1) fund should have been closed long ago. I got in when AUM was approx $8B. How in good conscience can a fund be kept open when the average cash stake was 20% or better most of the time? That much cash means there aren't many good deals out there, so why accept more cash?
    2) For an $8B fund with 20-30% of AUM in cash, what justifies an ER >= 1.00%.?Today AUM are 50% greater, so why has the ER increased instead of decreased?
    If you look at M* data, you'll see that over 15 years, FPACX is a middle-of-the-road fund. It maybe is in the second quartile on the 4-bar graph, and comes in around 50% in terms of fund rankings.
    If I remember correctly, prior to 2010, this fund was hot, and it wasn't large cap performance that made it hot. I thought it might have had good defensive characteristics, which is why I bought in. Sometime around that time, money started to pour in, AUM went way up, and people didn't care that the ER was where it was because the fund was still doing well.
    There are plenty of other funds out there - big and small - where I would put my money. I have both VWENX and VWIAX. If I didn't, I'd consider DODBX, ABALX - even if I had to pay the load -, and possibly MAPOX and FOBAX. I sold out my FOBAX two years ago, and have been regretting it ever since. I have not regretting selling FPACX and doubt that I ever will. YMMV.
  • Allocation funds
    What pops out immediately from JABAX's portfolio is that its equity sleeve is large cap growth, and has been at least leaning that way for the past five years or longer. See here. We've been in a long period, virtually the whole tenure of MPinto, where growth has outperformed value.
    This raises the questions (1) whether its good performance has been due in part simply to this bias, and (2) whether this is where the manager is comfortable investing or whether he would shift to value (and under what conditions)?
    It's hard to answer #2. To address #1, I ran a quick analysis using Portfolio Visualizer.
    I ran back tests from May 2005 to the present, comparing JABAX with VWELX and with 60/40 mixes of VOOG & VBTLX (to check JABAX value add vs. index funds) and VOOV & VBTLX (for VWELX value add vs. index funds). Rebalanced quarterly.
    From best to worst annualized returns:
    VOOG/VBTLX: 10.43% (growth mix)
    VWELX: 9.74%
    JABAX: 9.32%
    VOOV/VBTLX: 8.36% (value mix)
  • Capital Group TV ad....
    "Maybe they can actually close a fund one day."
    I don't think that they know about this "closing" thing. It's a fairly new concept, and they aren't noted for quick embracement of this new stuff.
    That said (in jest) American has done very well for us over the years.
  • Allocation funds
    I think there is a good argument to be made for an allocation fund as long as the "allocator" is really talented. I have never believed that a fund manger should ALWAYS be fully invested. You are paying them for their judgement and if there seems to be little that they feel is worth buying why insist they do so?
    So most of my funds have allocations to cash, but the question here is should you pick one that is committed to other asset classes, and is Romick the best person to use.
    The first question is personal preference. Are you more comfortable is someone else make your asset allocation decisions?
    The second question has a little more data behind it. I have used FPACX for years but "past performance is no guarantee.." certainly holds here. Romick's outsized gains are almost all due to the years before 2009.
    He never went off the deep end like some of the heroes in years past but I am not sure that I would buy FPACX now just for his expertise
  • Invesco liquidates several funds
    Yeah - Checking M* I get figures (for OSDAX) at or close to msf & Carew388. (1.78 @3 years and 1.33 @5). Sorry for the misstatement. Now, if somebody can explain to me how Lipper could screw up those numbers, I’d feel better. Have used the MW / Lipper data for years and never encountered a problem like that.
    As far as Invesco closing, I’m new there, having transferred in thru the merger with Oppenheimer. I’ve been critical of Oppenheimer for years, due to higher fees and their horrible ‘07-‘09 performance. But, as I said earlier, I’ve had a relatively small % of assets with them since around ‘95. I’ve always invested directly with the houses rather than thru a brokerage. Old school I guess. So yes, I’d miss them if they closed completely. I like and use 3 of their specialty funds. With those types of funds, the ability to move in and out nearly at will is helpful. That said, as I simplify things and move monies to TRP (a process already in progress) $$ will be coming out of Invesco.
  • Allocation funds
    All good stuff above.
    I benchmark against a decent 40/60 allocation fund (TRRIX). Mainly I’m interested in having similar or lower volatility than that fund exhibits most days and keeping slightly ahead of it in total return longer term. I’ve owned it before, but don’t currently own it.
    At 70+ I own no all-stock funds, unless you count minor exposure to some specialty funds (gold, infrastructure, etc.)
    My several balanced funds now have a portfolio weighting that 30 years ago would have been invested in stock funds. Among them is PRWCX, which is probably the most aggressive one and probably better classified as a “stock” fund.
    I can’t think of any classic allocation funds I currently own. But I’m not opposed to owning them either. Actually, it may be easier for some to tolerate the swings in an allocation or balanced fund over time than to tolerate the gyrations a stock fund might experience. If you’re comfortable running both stock and bond funds side by side, nothing wrong with that.
    No advice @Art except to settle on some kind of benchmark suitable to age, circumstance and temperament. Comparing your returns against a reasonable benchmark is a lot less trying than comparing them to any particular hot fund or market at any given time. The benchmark you use might be a favorite fund, an index, or a collection of 2 or 3 of those averaged together.
  • Allocation funds
    I generally suggest caution when evaluating a fund with recent poor performance. That recent performance distorts the longer term figures.
    Looking at IVWIX year by year, it's done acceptable or better most years. 2012 was a year like this one, 84th percentile then, 86th percentile YTD. M* writes that this fund lags in up markets such as 2012 and that would seem to apply to this year as well.
    Consistent with that, the fund currently holds over 30% in cash alone (almost no bonds), and 2/3 of its equity is abroad. That seems quite defensive, positioned for interest rate hikes and the US market peaking. In six months that may look very prescient or it may look somewhat foolish. Regardless, this seems to fit the fund's overall profile. This is not your typical world allocation fund and it doesn't seem to have changed its style recently.
    If you're looking for a pure stock fund, would you consider IVIQX? If not, then perhaps it's the managers' style that you don't like and not necessarily world allocation funds in general.
    With respect to domestic allocation funds, I usually start with VWELX as my benchmark. Is that a fund you would be happy with? If so, then again it may be the fund (FPACX) and not the category that troubles you.
    If in using separate stock and bond funds you'd have the same stock/bond mix as before, then you'd expect to do about the same as with allocation funds generally. Personally I prefer separate stock and bond funds, but I do keep eyeing Wellington. It's more a question of how one wants to manage one's portfolio than a question of performance.
  • Allocation funds
    I have 2 allocation funds, IVWIX and FPACX. Both long term holds over 5 years Both funds are 30%+ cash/bonds. On down days they sometimes have worse performance than some of my all stock funds. I am not seeing the advantage of having an allocation fund, at least my 2 choices. 7 of my 11 funds had better performance today. FPACX is in the middle of the pack YTD and IVWIX is my worst performer YTD. 3 year returns are not much different. Buy/sell/hold these funds? What are your thoughts? I am thinking separate stock and bond funds.
  • Weekly Stock Market Recap – Sep 22nd 2019
    It's said to learn that there will be no more Stock Market Recaps after next week. I have enjoyed reading them for a good number of years and said to see them go.
    However, there is CNBC "Morning Squawk" that one can sign up to receive each morning via email that recaps former market activity and current events along with what's happening today and for the coming week.
    For me, I find it enjoyable reading as well.
  • Invesco liquidates several funds
    Per Yahoo Finance BBBMX and TRBUX have better 3 and 5 year returns than OSDAX.
    I don’t know anything about BBBMX. But Lipper puts OSDAX solidly ahead of TRBUX for 3 and 5 years. (Neither has been around yet for 10 years.)
    3 years: OSDAX: 3.33% TRBUX: 2.32%
    5 years: OSDAX: 2.48% TRBUX: 1.80%
  • How To Profit From The ‘Best Of Both Worlds’ In Stock Investing: (AFOIX)
    I just wasted a lot of time thanks to M*'s dropping of the "Purchase" tab for researching MFs. Going to both Schwab and TDA I found that AFOIX is available only to institutional investors at the former and not at all at the latter. My surfing to Alger finally got me the the symbol AFOZX, which is the share class for mere mortals. This mortal was interested in the fund, in part due to reading the MarketWatch piece on mid-caps linked above. Zhang spent 14 years in small and mid caps at Brown Capital before Alger hired her away in 2015. I can't think of a better place to train. Her Alger small-mid fund has been great. In any event, AFOZX is currently available NL but with the transaction fee at the two above brokerages, a deterrent for me. Maybe the fund will become NTF if it grows.
  • Invesco liquidates several funds
    All valid comments by @msf & @carew388 above. Oppenheimer became the poster child for bad faith investment management re the monies investors had entrusted to some of their bond funds when things went south in 2008. Their high income fund may have set some kind of “record” for year-over-year losses. A real shame. As I recall, there were some successful lawsuits.
    I’ve not been much impressed over the years with Oppenheimer’s offerings. I started a small IRA with them in the mid 90s after they introduced one of the first commodities funds. Soared like an eagle for a few years before crashing and burning (now closed). The initial investment has grown decently over those 20-25 years. I do use their OPGSX, OREAX and OQGAX (which msf mentioned). While the last one hasn’t done well since they acquired it a couple years ago, it had a stellar record, as I recall, before that time.
    What prompted me to post here again is that I think I’ve actually uncovered a pretty competive offering while digging through Invesco’s lineup. It’s their ultra-short OSDAX which is offered at no-load and carries a .29 ER. Miracle of miracles! It’s rare that these guys can top the offering of TRP in any category. Price’s (very similar) ultra-short, TRBUX, actually carries a higher ER. I’ve shifted a bit into OSDAX in part because it would facilitate doing a transfer at some future point from Invesco to T. Rowe.
    PS - It strikes me that the low fees on OSDAX may amount to somewhat of a “loss leader” for them. If you move no-load money from it into another of their funds, you’re likely to pay a load for whatever you choose to go into.
  • Blackstone's Byron Wien: 15 Percent Yearly Gains on S&P 500 to End Soon Read Newsmax: Newsmax.com -
    I agree that sometime in the next 10 years the market will gain only 5% and possibly lose up to 25% but its not clear how believing that will make me money or even save me some. Getting the level right is useless if you get the time wrong.
  • The Closing Bell: Stocks Turn Lower In Final Day Of A Bumpy Trading Week
    FYI: U.S. stocks turned lower Friday after reports that a Chinese trade delegation would be returning home earlier than expected, souring hopes that Washington and Beijing were moving toward a trade deal.
    The news capped off an eventful week that featured turmoil in money markets and an attack on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia that triggered dramatic swings in crude prices.
    The blue-chip index fell 160 points, or 0.59%, in afternoon trading. The S&P 500 dropped 0.50%, while the Nasdaq Composite slumped 0.80%.
    Stocks had opened higher but then dropped sharply after news agencies reported that Chinese agriculture officials had canceled a planned trip to Montana and were returning home.
    All three indexes are on pace to close the week lower, after three consecutive weeks of gains. Still, both the Dow and S&P 500 are within 1.5% of their closing records reached in July.
    Investors snapped up assets seen as safe havens. The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasurys fell to 1.758%, from 1.777% on Thursday.
    Stock moves were muted this week, but volatility broke out in the oil market and an obscure corner of the financial system that banks rely on for short-term funding.
    Rates on short-term repurchase agreements briefly jumped from around 2% to nearly 10% at the beginning of the week. The spike was caused by technical factors: corporate tax payments came due to the U.S. Treasury just as Treasury debt auctions settled, leading to large transfers of cash from the banking system.
    U.S. crude oil slipped less than 0.1% to $58.09 a barrel on Friday after days of major price swings. Following an attack on key Saudi production facilities last weekend, oil futures spiked nearly 15%--their largest one-day move in years. But since then they have pared gains as Saudi officials have pledged to restore production to regular levels.
    Netflix was one of the worst-performing stocks in the S&P 500 on Friday, down 6.2%. The streaming company has been under pressure in recent months amid a decline in its U.S. subscribers.
    Overseas, the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 gained 0.3%. In Asia, the Shanghai Composite and Japan’s Nikkei both rose 0.2%.
    Regards,
    Ted
    Bloomberg Evening Briefing:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-20/your-evening-briefing
    MarketWatch:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-and-sp-500-set-to-test-record-highs-as-trump-administration-said-to-exempt-china-products-from-tariffs-2019-09-20/print
    WSJ:
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-rise-at-the-end-of-a-bumpy-week-11568968985
    Bloomberg:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-19/asia-stocks-set-to-edge-higher-bond-yields-drift-markets-wrap
    IBD:
    https://www.investors.com/market-trend/the-big-picture/stock-market-falls-on-china-trade-setback/
    CNBC:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/20/stock-market-wall-street-in-focus-as-us-china-trade-talks-resume.html
    Reuters:
    https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-street-drops-after-china-cancels-visit-to-montana-farmland-idUKKBN1W51B6
    U.K:
    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-stocks/british-blue-chips-dented-by-sterlings-brief-brexit-uplift-idUKKBN1W50NQ
    Europe:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-stocks/european-shares-log-fifth-week-of-gains-novo-nordisk-shines-idUSKBN1W51WY
    Asia:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/20/asia-pacific-stocks-set-to-trade-mixed-amid-us-china-trade-jitters.html
    Bonds:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/20/bonds-treasury-yields-fall-as-traders-monitor-us-china-trade-talks.html
    Currencies:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/20/forex-markets-federal-reserve-brexit-in-focus.html
    Oil
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/20/oil-markets-middle-east-in-focus.html
    Gold:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/20/gold-markets-dollar-us-china-trade-in-focus.html
    WSJ: Markets At A Glance:
    https://markets.wsj.com/us
    Major ETFs % Change:
    https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/etf-monitor
    SPDR's Sector Tracker:
    http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
    SPDR's Bloomberg Sector Performance Pie Chart:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/sectors
    Current Futures:
    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
  • Invesco liquidates several funds
    We all look at different things and have our own biases, which is my way of saying that what follows are my less than complimentary thoughts about Rochester and Steelpath (two of Oppenheimer's acquisitions, including some of the terminated funds above). So the comments aren't about all of Oppenheimer's funds, just a couple of significant segments.
    Rochester funds often show up at the top of muni fund performance screens. In a category of funds that should be sedate, these are high octane funds without adequate warning labels. From Oppenheimer's own PR: "Unlike many of its competitors, the team chooses to invest across the entire credit spectrum and its historic results have often been driven by the high levels of tax-free yield that non-rated and below-investment-grade securities have offered."
    http://www.mfwire.com/article.asp?storyID=21319&template=article&bhcp=1
    The lack of warning labels has landed these funds in hot water.
    Shareholders accused OppenheimerFunds, a New York-based unit of Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Co, of misleading them about the safety of six funds, ignoring the funds’ stated objectives and risk guidelines, and inflating asset values. ...
    The six funds were: AMT-Free Municipals, Rochester Fund Municipals, Rochester AMT-Free New York Municipal, New Jersey Municipal, Pennsylvania Municipal and Rochester National Municipals.
    Rochester National specialized in high-yield securities, and remains one of the biggest funds in its class, with about $5.7 billion of assets as of July 31.
    The other five funds were designed to preserve shareholder principal by investing in high-quality securities.
    According to Morningstar Inc, the six funds’ Class A shares fell between 29 percent and 48.9 percent in 2008, ranking near the bottom of their respective categories.
    Reuters, Aug 29, 2013, OppenheimerFunds settles crisis-era muni fund lawsuits for $89.5 mln
    SteelPath strike me as a way to vitiate the tax advantages of MLPs (in the pursuit of simplicity), leaving no compelling reason to invest in them.
    Once MLPs are wrapped in a mutual fund or an ETF, their distributions are taxed at the fund's corporate rate, and what is left is paid to shareholders as a distribution. That payment then is taxed as dividend income, thereby effectively nullifying the main reason for investing in an MLP in the first place.
    https://www.investmentnews.com/article/20130414/REG/130419957/mlps-in-mutual-funds-pose-hazards
    I'd guess it's more a combination of small size and poor performance that's driving the closures. Oppenheimer created its own MLP fund ILPAX a couple of years after acquiring Steelpath, and it's still a tiny fund. But it's been doing better than the similarly microscopic OMLPX, which Oppenheimer is shuttering.
    https://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/energy-limited-partnership/$FOCA$LP.aspx
    Invesco is leaving in place its two non-MLP infractructure funds, one home grown (GIZAX), and one from Oppenheimer (OQGAX). So there seems to be more considerations than just overlap in doing this housecleaning. Also given Oppenheimer could have merged funds together and shielded investors from tax consequences of liquidation if it felt the closed funds overlapped enough with the surviving funds.
    Invesco fund lineup
    Related (another tiny MLP fund at the bottom of the performance rankings):
    James Alpha MLP Portfolio to cease selling of shares
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/52746/james-alpha-mlp-portfolio-to-cease-selling-of-shares
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD - September
    Hi guys,
    Have added to GBILX and started new positions in YAFFX and PTIAX. I have owned these before. I think interest rates will fall and value will rise.....just me thinking. And the Dukester thinks that the Blonde One will be in for 4 more years. Soooooo, be cool. Is that 60's or what?
    God bless
    the Pudd
    p.s. Fido had John Hancock on. Large caps are in and mid quality was stressed over and over. And no overseas except healthcare. Bonds, yes, at 1.80 on the 10-year. No banks or small caps.
  • Jim Grant Is a Wall Street Cult Hero. Does It Matter If He’s Often Wrong?

    Part of GS forward forecast for markets in 2011
    Interest rates won't be hiked until 2013
    Goldman Sachs
    While interest rates won't move until 2013, the yield on the U.S. 10-year will rise from 3.0% to 3.75% by the end of 2011, and 4.25% by Q4 2012.

    >>>10 year yields below
    --- Jan. 2011 @3.4%
    --- Jan. 2012 @1.9%
    --- Jan. 2013 @1.9%
    --- Jan. 2014 @3.0%
    --- Jan. 2015 @2.0%
    --- Sep. 19, 2019 @1.78%
    The above forecast by GS, versus what happened, caused some serious winners and losers, depending on where one was invested or NOT in bonds.
    @hank
    Mostly agree with you regarding Mr. Grant. Have read him over the years, but don't find I would have made more money following his thoughts.
    We investors have our luck periods, sprinkled with some actual properly thinking and observations, including power houses like Goldman Sachs.
    I remain, "this time is different."
    As of recent, I'm still trying to get my head around how the "repo transactions" sector functions and statements from those who understand this area regarding current interventions by our Fed. reserve system.
    Have a good remainder.
    Catch
  • Index Funds Are The New Kings Of Wall Street
    @Simon
    There are thousands of funds which have beaten the index over multiple time frames.
    I seriously doubt that. There are often hundreds, perhaps thousands, over a specific time period, but rarely over multiple time periods. The fund that beats the benchmark over the past five years is rarely the same one that beats it over the next five. The lack of consistency is extremely problematic for the average investor and the end result is the inexperienced chase performance in active management and are punished for it.
  • Index Funds Are The New Kings Of Wall Street
    @Simon, how does using indexes as a contrarian indicator work? If most managed funds mimic or can't beat an index, why is that a buy signal for managed funds?
    Now that passive stock fund assets have exceeded active for first time it is anecdotal evidence you should be moving money away from the herd into active managers who can beat the index. There are thousands of funds which have beaten the index over multiple time frames. As an investor of 40+ years this concept seems totally logical to me.
    Jeff Saut writes a good, if long winded, article about this.
    https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2019/09/09/zebras