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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • How to pick a mortgage lender (refi)
    Pended is a great CU. Anybody can join and they do it fairly. We refinanced several times over the years and found each time hundreds of dollars "mistakes" that had to be fixed because I was going to walk away hours before closing.
    Penfed didn't have these mistakes.
    Penfed was our last home debtor. In 2012, they offer a 5 years loan at 1.99% with zero fees. We use it to pay the previous mortgage + our kids tuition and how we finished paying our debt years earlier.
  • How to pick a mortgage lender (refi)
    If you are a member of a CU that offers residential lending, I would look there first.
    If not, find out if you are dealing with a broker or an actual lender. If you deal with a broker, you have to pay them something for their time/efforts.
    Many mortgage lenders will sell your loan once the loan closes, which you should receive a notice of who acquired your loan.
    Also, if you have been in the house for less than 10 years, you can see if you can get the "reissue rate" for title insurance. The shorter amount of time involved in researching the title, the less the cost. Google reissue rate for title insurance. I mentioned this since you mentioned mortgage recasting.
    Check with your state regulator who oversees state mortgage brokers/mortgage lenders. You can also find out if there any any complaints against a particular lender. The regulator will not give details about the complaint/complainant, but if someone tells you there are 20 complaints for 2020, you may rethink your selection. Of course, you don't know what the lender's loan volume for the time period in question.
    You can ask your state regulator if your state has instituted a loan prepayment penalty; many states do not, but you need to check as a precaution.
    Prepaying a loan is between you and the lender/servicer. You may want to ask about that when discussing it with the mortgage lender you ultimately deal with prior to the closing.
    You can also check this link which is for public only to see if the company is licensed and other information.
    https://www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org/
  • ? DSENX-DSEEX a little help please if you can
    FWIW, and this is not advice, I'd consider it a hold or slight sell.
    As I asked in a recent thread on PIMIX, have your reasons for holding it changed? It's a 2x fund, 100% stock exposure + 100% bond exposure. That's always been true, it hasn't changed. If that was an appealing concept, it should still be. That fact that the some risks recently manifested shouldn't change one's perceptions - the idea of risk is that sometimes bad things actually do happen.
    If one bought it because one thought that an index-ish fund, a "smart beta" could beat market returns, then one should examine why one believes (or believed) that. Is this time really different, or is the market simply going through a different phase?
    Note that I'm not the one calling the CAPE index smart beta - Doubleline is. Doubleline acknowledges that pre-2012 performance of the index is just backtesting; and that Barclays is motivated to use to that present the index in the best possible light:
    Shiller Barclays CAPE® U.S. Sector Total Return Index..., a non-market cap-weighted, rules-based (aka “smart beta”) index.
    ...
    Pre-inception index performance refers to the period prior to the index inception date (defined as the period from the “Index Base Date” (September 3, 2002) to the “Index Live Date” September 3, 2012)). This performance is hypothetical and back-tested using criteria applied retroactively. It benefits from hindsight and knowledge of factors that may have favorably affected the performance and cannot account for all financial risk that may affect the actual performance of the index. It is in Barclays’ interest to demonstrate favorable pre-inception index performance. The actual performance of the index may vary significantly from the pre-inception index performance.
    From the same 2019 page as cited previously.
    The reason I might consider selling the fund if I owned it is because something has fundamentally changed - interest rates. Even with the use of swaps, the leverage to get 100% bond exposure is not free. That presents a hurdle, small in a normal interest rate environment, but significant in a near ZIRP world.
    Compare and contrast three large cap oriented 2x (equity + bond) funds: PXTIX, DSENX, and MWATX.
    Historically, PXTIX has performed as promised, beating its benchmark, the Russell 1000 Value, by half a percent for the past five years (in a low interest environment), 2% over ten years, 3% over 15. But falling about 1% short YTD.
    DSENX, excluding this year, beat CAPE by 2% in a couple of years, roughly matched CAPE in a couple, and then a -1% year followed by a +1% year. That's around a half percent a year, until this year, when it looks like it made a bad bond call. (To see the blow by blow comparisons, use this page, and then add CAPE as a fund to compare with.)
    It's fair to compare CAPE with the S&P 500, since that's the universe from which it is choosing sectors. M* shows that CAPE and DSENX over their lifetimes, more or less (10/31/13 to present) to have done better than the S&P 500. Both have cumulative returns around 130% vs. 110% for the S&P 500. More recently (3 years or less), they've underperformed. Whether this is just a market phase and that their outperformance will resume is fodder for a broader discussion about smart beta.
    MWATX is instructive because it doesn't use smart beta, just a 2x strategy. It significantly underperformed the S&P 500 in 2008, not catching up to the S&P 500 until the end of 2016. It took a much lighter hit this year, and is now within 1% of the index on performance since Feb 20. IMHO this shows that the leveraging works, but there's real risk and one needs to be patient. Also, it's an extremely tax-inefficient strategy.
  • Suggestion for a fund for my grandson?
    Just went through this same drill. Would have preferred Vanguard, but they aren’t worried about young investors trying to get started with less than $3k. Went with TRMCX (Recently reopened) with minimum investment of $1k. At 21, and in a Roth, he can tolerate volatility and tax inefficiency - so another approach is to look for something high yield. Save the index funds for taxable accounts. I wish I had been more cognizant of the tax implications choices I was making 20 years ago would have on my current situation.
  • US stock market is overlooking the rapidly growing national debt
    "The deficit is growing at a rate "well in excess of the growth rate of the economy," he added. "To me, that means more of our nation's income will have to be devoted to debt service, which will retard economic growth in the long term."
    The above has been true 5-10-15 years ago too as the deficit was growing under both parties and...here we are.
    If you believe in that let us know when are you selling everything ;-)
    As usual, I disregard all articles and forecasts and concentrate on what markets are doing now.
  • ? DSENX-DSEEX a little help please if you can
    The DoubleLine Shiller Enhanced CAPE®, [is] an investment strategy pairing Shiller Barclays CAPE® with an active fixed income strategy (DoubleLine Short-Intermediate Duration Fixed Income, or SHINT. ...

    Introducing DoubleLine Short-Intermediate Fixed Income Strategy (“SHINT”)

    To construct portfolios across multiple sectors of the fixed income universe, including SHINT portfolios, DoubleLine applies a macroeconomic framework, led by portfolio managers and analysts who look across the spectrum of different asset classes. ...
    SHINT is a diversified fixed income strategy that, at present [April 2019], targets duration of one to three years while pursuing a yield of 3% to 4%. That yield target appears feasible in the current market environment, allowing the investment team to take a measured approach to both interest rate and credit risks. Freedom to allocate across multiple sectors of the fixed income universe also allows the team to construct a diversified fixed income portfolio with what DoubleLine believes to be the most attractive investments on a reward-to-risk basis. The two-pronged approach of coupling top-down macroeconomic views with bottom-up security selection provides potential benefits from both risk management as well as return-seeking opportunities.
    Actively managing the credit risk [non-AGG bond sectors] and interest-rate risk [IG bonds] of the portfolio is a key element to the asset allocation process. DoubleLine tilts the portfolio in the direction of one risk versus another based on the investment team’s macroeconomic forecasts and views on return and risk prospects within the sectors. ...
    Sector rotation of SHINT portfolios has tended to be gradual, due to the gradual shifts in the macroeconomic landscape.
    https://doubleline.com/dl/wp-content/uploads/DoubleLine-CAPEinRisingRateEnvironments-March2019.pdf
    That contains a lot more, including a graph of the bond sector allocations over time.
    DSENX tracked CAPE until March, when it underperformed by about 6%. The gap has held steady since then. This suggests that the bond component was fairly flat (neither helping nor hurting) through February, and also after March. But that it dipped 6% in March.
    We've seen funds that have not recovered well, notably junk securitized debt. But those also fell much harder than 6%. So without peeking, I'd guess that DoubleLine had a mix of low grade securitized bonds and enough higher grade bonds to temper the dip. Taking more credit risk would also be consistent with trying to maintain that 3%+ yield while keeping a short duration.. Strangely enough, the bond fund I find with the closest match for that 2020 performance is TPINX. The portfolio is consistent with my guess: BBB credit rating, 2 year duration.
    Looking at the linked doc on the Enhanced CAPE strategy, it seems that DoubleLine missed a macro call in 2019. The doc is entitled: A Potential Solution for Investors in Rising-Rate Environments.
    Given indications that yields on the 10- and 30-year Treasuries put in a durable bottom in 2016, ending of the 35-year bull market in government bonds, investors have good reason to think about how to position portfolios for the next regime in fixed income. The investment team at DoubleLine is not calling for the advent of a secular bear market in fixed income. ... However, DoubleLine sees numerous fundamental factors presaging a rise in interest rates over the long run. Investors should study strategies that may not need the tailwind of declining rates to provide positive returns and perhaps have the potential to outperform in the face of rising rates.
    Finally (and why I was curious about this fund), M* started classifying it as a blend fund in 2019. Not all that surprising, since CAPE rotates among sectors that are most undervalued relative to their own prior valuations, not relative to the market. So it can easily rotate into more "growthy" sectors.
  • Suggestion for a fund for my grandson?
    Donna
    As you say, your grandson will begin to learn the ropes pretty quickly (once he has skin in the game). So you're not trying to select a fund that he'll have to keep forever.
    He's young and has time on his side, so he can be adventurous. QQQ or a technology oriented fund would be appropriate.
    This strikes a chord with me -- this week my 15-year old grandson called wanting advice about stocks (he had inherited a little money from his other grandparents). We talked about possibilities, but he made his own decisions. Of course, as soon as something went up a dollar, he wanted to sell it! My strongest recc. was SMH (semiconductors ETF). Volatile ( he had to look up this word) but will probably beat the market in the long run. I've had FSELX, the Fidelity semiconductors (managed )Select Semiconductors fund in my IRA and in my wife's Roth IRA for years and it has been very strong (especially recently).
    Are you providing his initial investment (which is perfect as long as he has actually worked and earned some money)? My grandaughter just graduated from college and started working; I told her I'd match what she wanted to put in a Roth IRA. It turned out that she'd made about $6000 working last year, so she could open a Roth for that much -- my 3K and her 3K. My real goal is to get her engaged in the investment process.
    This will be fun; let us know what you grandson decides.
    David
  • Suggestion for a fund for my grandson?
    Hi Donna!
    I suggest you buy him some good books also. Seems like so many 21 year old men think they can “discover” half a dozen gems, ride them for a couple of years and retire at age 30. And of course, that’s just not realistic. My suggestion would be William Bernstein’s “If you Can”. https://etf.com/docs/IfYouCan.pdf
    I may be only thinking of a data set of one (yours truly) but when I was 22 a broker called singing the praises of Data I/O and convinced me to open a margin account.
  • Suggestion for a fund for my grandson?
    Hi @Donna,
    Not a suggestion ... Just what I'm doing for my grandaughter. However, this concept might be of some help.
    I have my 18 month old granddaughter in AMECX, CAIBX, ANCFX and SMCWX at American Funds, The min. for each fund is $250.00. I make quarterly gift contributions to her account splitting the money evenly. Her mutual fund distributions pay to AFAXX which is a money market fund to accumulate until they become invested into ABALX which is a balanced fund. In this way she will have an awarness of just how much interest, dividends and capital gain distributions play in the overall sucess of investing. I'm thinking over time ABALX will become larger that the first four starting funds by the time she becomes 21 (age of majority).
    Even though this is invested conseratively it is up better than 8% over the past rolling year. At her age and with the many years she has ahead I feel a conserative steady as you go approach is the wise one over an agressive growth portfolio that will have, at times, some good volatility associated with it. This might lead one into trading over staying invested for the long term.
    I became an investor as a teenager at age 12 (1960). I started investing with some money my great grandparents gifted to me. And, it was put into Franklin Income (FKINX). My father's broker told me that this fund will give you some exposure to income generation (put a little gingle in your pocket if you wish) and also give you exposure to both stocks and bonds as well. It will be a good fund for you to build a base from and help you to understand the facets of investing. My next fund that I ventured into was American Funds Income Fund of America (AMECX) during my early twenties as I was learning don't put all you eggs in one basket, by this time. Today, these two funds are my largest holdings within my portfolio now just short of fifty funds split among twelve investment sleeves. I went the conserative route in the beginning and branched out from there. Now stock market volatility is viewed, by me, as a buying opportunity. While some run and sell ... I am a buyer even at the age of 72. I bought during the past market swoon and now that stocks have recovered I have been selling into the now present market strength.
    If you wish to view how the asset allocation, of my grandaughter's portfolio bubles, or any of the other suggestions that has been made, below is a link to Morningstar's Instant Xray analysis tool. It's a good tool to learn how to use.
    https://www.morningstar.com/instant-x-ray
    Just enter the ticker symbols and amount invested in each fund then press Xray and the Portfolio Xray analysis will appear. For my granddaughter, I felt it wise to mix some income generation funds on the income side with some value and growth stocks funds on the equity side. Sometimes, with the income generation that protfolios produce keeps folks invested. My late father had a saying ... "Income never goes out of style." Thus far, in my lifetime, he has been correct.
    Your grandson can follow his portfolio through M*'s portfolio manager which is another tool I use.
    My best wishes to you and your grandson in starting this endeavor. It is something that he can begin small and build upon through his lifetime. In the years to come he will remember ... this is something my grandmother got me started me on. And, give thanks that you did.
    Old_Skeet
    edited on 7/23/2020
  • on the passing of Dowe Bynum
    Dear friends,
    I wanted to share the sad news of passing of Dowe Bynum (1978-2020) last Friday. Dowe, half of Cook & Bynum, was diagnosed with brain cancer about three years ago. (I still remember standing in the Cedar Rapids airport one evening, and taking a call from David Hobbs who wanted to share the diagnosis with us. They knew, even then, that it was very serious.) As you might imagine, his illness deeply affected his family, his friend and partner, and their firm. I have extended our condolences, through the folks at Cook & Bynum, to Emily and their three children.
    I wish them, and you, peace.
    David
  • Q: As you Spend Down Your Portfolio in Retirement...

    @WABAC, hope this thread helps your headache. Your retirement income needs will come from SS, maybe a pension, maybe part time work, maybe a portion of your personal retirement accounts (RMDs or other withdrawals).
    If considering an annuity run some withdrawal scenarios with a fund like VWINX which may provide a similar withdrawal rate to an annuity and still allow you to have full control over it.
    Not too worried about headaches at the moment. Aside from market performance, we are saving cash every month under the current conditions. This has been an interesting stress test.
    Used to spend 135$ a month filling up the cars. Now, one car, or the other, gets filled up every third month,
    The little numbers might be small for what some folks here may need. But they add up quick for our situation.
    While I have "enjoyed" the accumulation stage. I'm not so sure I want to manage the RMD stage. We're still 7-8 years out from that. And I don't have to sort it out today.
    But it's something to think about so long as we can entertain the idea of relying on our retirement accounts, without tapping into taxable accounts.
    The recent changes in the way inherited retirement accounts are treated by the IRS has influenced my thinking.
  • Q: As you Spend Down Your Portfolio in Retirement...
    @Sven: I am bombarded by upgrade offers from Quicken even though I haven’t used it in years. I can’t entirely cut the cord from Intuit, however, because I’m a TurboTax subscriber.
  • Q: As you Spend Down Your Portfolio in Retirement...
    Chapter I -Too complex for me. Fortunately I purchased the DejaOffice App at Apple around the time I retired. It has proven highly reliable and very versatile for creating various files and keeping backups. Updating the most recent backup to all devices (weekly) works reliably. So I have basic records of just about everything related to investing since retiring 20+ years ago. Annual returns, additions from other sources, withdrawals by year, total withdrawals to date, total gains to date, Roth conversion dates and amounts, etc. etc. I also record every fund exchange, transfer or sale I make, but normally discard those files after 3 years. The thought of having to maintain all that garbage in some type of paper file (as might have been common 25 years ago) is daunting to say the least.
    Chapter II - I don’t worry too much about any overarching plan. Looking at those detailed records gives me some degree of confidence I’m heading in the right direction. We’ve skated around the related issue in the past of whether it’s better to keep a 3-5 year cash reserve to smooth out those market shocks or to just pull what you need from the overall blend of assets. The former allows for a more aggressive investment approach of course (but with fewer dollars). Good arguments both ways. I’m in the minority here as I believe in not maintaining a separate cash reserve. However, am quite conservatively invested,
    Chapter III - In terms of how much and when to withdraw? Depends on needs. Pull substantial amounts for a new car or home renovation maybe every 5 years. Lesser amounts for other years. If worried about market levitation I do a 6 month “advance” by transferring the next year’s anticipated needs into cash still within the tax-sheltered domain. I did that mid-way through 2019. Not planning on doing that this year. Politicians have gone spending crazy in an election year. A trillion here ... a trillion there ... Hell to pay some day. But I expect the markets to hold at least until November. As far as those drawdowns for major purchases go ... if the market’s sucking air and your investments are way down, postpone whatever you’d intended. Wait for a better time. I suspect that in that regard the human brain is better enabled to make the decision than would be MonteCarlo or any other computer simulation.
    Chapter IV - Can’t quite get my head around the popular notion of “spending down” assets. My invested assets have increased (in nominal terms) during retirement. I expect them to continue to increase. (That’s after whatever withdrawals were taken.) There’s something to be said for having an increasing “net worth” at any age. In fact, it seems counterintuitive to me to be “investing” (presumably for growth) while at the same time planning how to divest oneself of said assets. Maybe it’s because I have a decent pension. Don’t know. But it’s a real brain stopper for me.
  • Why 'Sleeping on It' Helps- a strategic investing style?
    @zenbrew,
    There is nothing wrong with sleeping on it. Most time with big decisions I think through for about three days as I have made impulse choices before that were just not the best.
    Years back I would try to get too much out of a position just to see my profits vanish from a pullback. Then the question is do you sell the decline? Or, hold for an uptick? For me, I like to sell into strength. Generally, I aveage in with equity ballast (and, or spiffs) during market declines (not trying to pick a bottom) and then I average out when the rebound comes and sell into strength (not trying to pick the top to exit). With this, I have preplanned my entries and my exits with some flexability built in of course and my barometer is an aid in me doing this. Thus far, it has worked fairly well. Not perfect but well enough to coninue with it.
    At the end of the day ... we have to govern as what works best for each of us.
    With this ... however, you choose to invest ... I wish you success.
    Old_Skeet
  • Why 'Sleeping on It' Helps- a strategic investing style?
    This might be a very strange post.
    I had a new electrician over my house the other day. A real sharp guy with 50+ years of experience & a streak of the philosophical. My house which was built in the 1970s is a landmine of aluminum & copper wiring. Typically I handle most of the wiring myself but for this I needed a professional. I was mentioning that it was sort of like detective work trying to figure out where the short was when while standing on the ladder looking at the wiring issue, he turned to me & said "you know this might sound really weird but I do my best problem solving when I'm sleeping". I didn't think it was weird at all.
    Which brings me to this post.
    I really respect & appreciate someone like Old_Skeet's barometer postings which lays out a very robust systematic way of investing using numbers.
    However, that's not how I roll even though I have at times tried. I've most likely left good money behind in the process but fortunately also avoided any major blow-ups along the way. I have tried to put as much on auto-pilot regarding finances as I can & have tried to idiot-proof the process along the way (to guard against my own bad decisions).
    The encounter with the electrician (who is now my go-to electrician for me when needed) crystallized how I do approach investing as with most of my life. My best problem solving & subsequent decisions come to me while either on a walkabout (hike of some sort) or sleeping. Not very scientific but has worked out extremely well for me throughout my life. I have been out on my own since I was 16 & have done okay. I also have done either yoga or tai chi throughout my life which I find helps immensely in clearing my mind. The more I consciously think about investing, the worse decisions I generally make. I tried rule-based investing for stocks for a short time, but wasn't very successful. Yikes, I sold Amazon at $400.
    I do try to stay stay informed & am not data-phobic. Information gathering (from a multitude of sources including here at MFO) is important & helps the unconscious processing.
    This process also is helped if one does not carry a lot of expectation. One has to be okay with the unknown.
    Why 'Sleeping on It' Helps
    So that's my strategy for investing.
    Any thoughts or comments?
  • Q: As you Spend Down Your Portfolio in Retirement...
    @zenbrew, I am impress with your organized approach. Good idea to use Quicken. Mine is over 20 years old.
  • Pimco Income bond fund Another one that was good until it wasn't?
    The PIMIX assessment was based solely on PIMIX previous years. In 2018 it was at 18% in its category but making 0.6% is pretty low when PTIAX made 2% and SEMMX made 3.9%.
    Possibly the comparison with PTIAX alone was deemed not sufficiently persuasive. Regardless and for whatever reason, the ringer SEMMX was tossed in - a fund that isn't a multisector fund (per M*). Which begs the question: why stop with just the third best nontraditional fund of 2018?
    Instead of cherry picking SEMMX, a 1* fund with a tarnished reputation, one could have cherry picked CLMAX, a 5* fund. Its 2018 performance of 7.58% not only nearly doubled that of SEMMX, but it made PTIAX look anemic.
    ==========
    Argentinian fiasco? PIMIX had just a 2% exposure to bonds that dropped in value to 71¢ on the dollar.
    https://www.pionline.com/markets/pimcos-bet-argentine-bond-paying-75-rate-hit-peso-rout
    As that column noted: "PIMCO's profits or losses on the bonds would depend significantly on the extent to which it hedged its foreign-exchange exposure." PIMCO stated that half of PIMIX's position (i.e. 1%) was dollar-denominated.
    The proof is in the pudding. In August, PIMIX dropped 1.11% vs. the category's 0.83% gain. It made up that 1.94% underperformance in the remainder of the year by outperforming monthly by 0.65%, 0.40%, 0.36%, and 0.50%. (Data from M*)
    Interesting how attention is called to some some black swan events with small impact, while others are disregarded ("You can't look at PIMIX YTD and compare it to BND (high rated bonds) when we had a black swan")
    ========
    PDBAX is not a M* Multi category fund but a Intermediate core plus fund
    People here generally understand that M* categories are not the be-all end-all (see, e.g. RPHYX). I mentioned PDBAX specifically because M* does not calls it multisector, writing:
    I ...suggest[] again to take a look at core plus funds. Generally core plus funds carry a bit less credit risk than multisector funds, though there's a fair amount of overlap between the most aggressive core plus and the more tame multisector funds. ... For example PDBAX.
    The data I presented and that you quoted supports that thesis. What was your point?
    FWIW, ADVNX is not a Lipper multi-sector income fund but a flexible income fund.
    =========
    2) SD(volatility) lower than 5
    3) Morningstar return above average or high

    These are effectively the same test. Since standard deviation is a second moment, a single outlier will skew the calculation. If a fund's SD is not distorted by March's performance figure, then March's performance must not have been an outlier. This in turn virtually mandates that the fund's return be relatively high (i.e. without a significant dip).
  • Q: As you Spend Down Your Portfolio in Retirement...
    @Old_Skeet, "Nope, I just spent less and lived within my means saving some along the way plus I have been a good prudent investor and grown my wealth through the years." I totally agree with that plan."
    .......Ditto.
  • Q: As you Spend Down Your Portfolio in Retirement...
    Schwab seems to have most of the information I need for planning & reporting purposes. I even have my external accounts located there so I can get a sense of aggregation, but they don't allow you to count those accounts in any calculations such as monthly income. The monthly income tab for my Schwab accounts is a very handy & easy way to see the monthly income generated. Schwab will also generate a retirement plan for me at least once a year, maybe as often as I'd want as I seem to get a lot of emails asking me to do so. They are good at working with me regarding changing any variables (such as inflation, rate of return, etc) to see how it might impact the future. I'm sure they would like to get my accounts under management but they have not been pushy at all. Overall, I'm very pleased with Schwab & at some point might transfer my wife's Roth IRA & a small Roth of mine from TRP there.
    The retirement plan that Schwab generates is the most comprehensive that I've used. It shows a year-by-year cash-flow analysis which includes annual income, withdrawal of assets, & taxes due plus more. I've also used TRP's FuturePath Tool too. I've looked at the OpenSocialSecurity tool as well as neither my wife or I have taken social security yet.
    I also still use Quicken which is helpful for budgeting but most of that is on autopilot which is how I like things set up. I would still refer to my account statements vs Quicken for any exact information that I would need.
    I like a bucket approach not so much that I think it generates the best results but it's easy for me to wrap my head around as well as makes it easy for me to leave my equity portion alone.
    Next year will be the first year that my wife & I will need to take from our retirement accounts but we actually have the cash so that we won't need to take much. I retired at the end of 2016 due to health reasons but was fortunate enough to have taken out a personal disability policy. It was equally fortuitous that I had been paying for it out of our personal funds vs through my corporation. The money has been tax-free (with multiple benefits beyond the obvious). I would strongly recommend for anyone getting a personal disability policy that if you can afford to, pay for it out of personal funds.
    @Old_Skeet, "Nope, I just spent less and lived within my means saving some along the way plus I have been a good prudent investor and grown my wealth through the years." I totally agree with that plan.
  • How Did Members First Find MFO? IOW What Got You Here?
    Looking for usenet files that I've got scattered all over the place in backups of backups of backups, I ran across a posting of Ed's that I saved, from mid 1999. We can reasonably figure that I moved to FundAlarm some time early this century.
    That post (after stripping headers):
    Mike Roberts wrote:
    > Please tell me which funds for the next 1,3 5, and 10 years will outperform
    > the S&P 500 Index. What's that - I'm waiting............
    Hi Mike,
    I'm not Sal, but here's a list:
    FSPHX, FSDCX, FSCSX, FSPTX, FDLSX, FDCPX, NTCHX, VGHCX, JAMRX, JAOLX,
    JASSX, JAVLX. Do you need more?
    The S&P 500 (as represented by VFIAX) dropped 19% over that span. Half of the six Fidelity Selects did better, half worse over 5 and 10 years. Only two did better over 3 years. Here's a graph for the Fidelity funds.
    As for the Janus funds:
    JAMRX was Janus Mercury at the time (it was renamed around 2006)
    JAOLX was Janus Olympus at the time, and was merged into Janus Orion JORNX in 2006; this in turn was renamed Janus Global Select (with a new, global investment policy) in 2010.
    JASSX was Janus Special Situations, which barely survived three years; it was merged into JSVAX Janus Strategic Value and renamed Janus Special Equity, which was renamed Janus Contrarian in 2004.
    JAVLX was Janus Twenty, which was merged into JACTX Janus Forty in 2017.
    Between the dot com bust and the 2003 timing scandal, Janus did not have a happy turn of the century.
    As for the non-Fidelity, non-Janus funds, I think people know that VGHCX has always been a great performer, though it slowed down a bit in the past decade. NTCHX underperformed the S&P 500 in all timeframes in question.