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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • MOAT vs. DSEEX/DSENX
    @davidrmoran Since I have limited tax deferred space, I hold my PONAX in a taxable. Despite holding it for many years, I am showing a loss due to taxable distributions and recent price declines.
    I'm also going to get out (or mostly out) if/when PONAX breaks even. I know that's not necessarily a good investment strategy, so I may act earlier and book a loss.
    I'm thinking the same thing about PIMIX. I've only held it for a few years as my core bond fund, but it has done nothing but lose money, and at my age, I don't need income from it. It would have been better leaving it in a bank. Amazon has been a waaay better buffer for recent bear markets. I'm considering adding to my AMZN position and dumping Pimco, balls to the wall.
  • Longleaf Partners Small Cap Fund reopens to new investors (LLSCX)
    2020 skews results. Some funds have done way better than their long term performance would suggest, LLSCX has done remarkably worse (99th percentile of mid cap blend category).
    Looking instead at 1/1/2010 through 1/1/2020, LLSCX has done okay. Not an endorsement or a commentary on its investments, but rather a suggestion to look at more than one snapshot in time. Especially given that the outsized impact of the 2020 market effectively transforms some "long term" figures into "what have you done for me lately" pictures.
    Here's a chart over that timeframe comparing LLSCX, R2K (its stated benchmark), midcap blend (its M* category since 2011), and small cap value (it claims to buy small cap companies, and Longleaf generally claims to be a value family). It just edged out R2K (210% cumulative return vs. 206% for R2K), and did better against the MCB and SCV category averages.
    M* comparison chart
    If you don't like looking at charts (personally I prefer to read numbers), the LLSCX summary prospectus says that the fund's average return over the past ten years was 11.98% vs 11.83 for the R2K. That's 2010-2019.
    Why bother? Lots of better funds out there.
    Can't argue with that :-)
  • Longleaf Partners Small Cap Fund reopens to new investors (LLSCX)
    I have been in and now out of Longleaf funds for decades. I finally gave up. While their reports are wonderfully detailed, and they make compelling arguments for all of their positions, the market seldom agrees.
    I think they make some disastrous mistakes over the years, and stuck with large positions that were cheap and stayed cheaper or got cheaper.
    Neither LLSCX or LLPFX have beaten their benchmark over the last decade. 11% of LLSCX is in Century Link which is down 35% since they first bought it. While CTL owns a large chunk of the internet backbone, it is loosing revenue quickly.
    Why bother? Lots of better funds out there.
  • BUY - SELL - PONDER - MAY 2020
    Hi guys,
    Was reading The Economist magazine. It has some scary things regarding bankruptcies, and a wave is coming. Already it's as bad as 2009, and it's only starting. Bonds.....2/3 of the non financials are BBB or junk. Already huge numbers will go to junk. Of the 32 worldwide junk bond defaults in April, 21 were in the U.S. Oil and gas (shale) are going to be smashed. Other sectors include retail, restaurants, mining, transport, cars, utilities. Also there will be lots of zombie companies that will survive for years. Europe is in the same shoes. I'm glad I don't own small cap funds now. Still, I worry about the mid caps I own. This will get bad, I think.
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • BUY - SELL - PONDER - MAY 2020
    I also wish to thank @Puddnhead for all the informative and entertaining B/ S threads over the years. I suspect that’s a favorite read for many who don’t actively participate.
    @Mark - Your Lyn Alden Schwartzer article would also fit under the “What The Hell is The Stock Market Doing?” thread: https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/56135/what-the-hell-is-the-stock-market-doing-cullen-roche
  • BUY - SELL - PONDER - MAY 2020
    Lyn Alden Schwartzer's May 19 article, "First Liquidity, Then Solvency," is a brief, detailed and chart-laden description of today's economy and market.
    "Does it get better from here, or is this a big fake-out for another round of selling as we move deeper into this year? ...
    "The next several years are likely to be challenging for many companies with weak balance sheets, so make sure you know what you own.
    "...the top 5 mega-cap stocks have held up the major American stock market indices like Atlas holding up the world, and reached levels of concentration not seen in nearly four decades."
    "...policymakers around the world can't afford to let a massive deflationary economic collapse occur, and for millions and millions of people to be unable to afford the necessities of life and for half of large companies to go out of business, so they will be forced to keep the stimulus taps open, funded with printed money, with a willingness to devalue currency to avoid the worst case economic scenario."
  • Longleaf Partners Small Cap Fund reopens to new investors (LLSCX)
    News article concerning reopening:
    https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2020/05/22/southeastern-the-exceptional-opportunity-in-small-cap-value?topic=energy
    Southeastern Asset Management excerpt concerning LLSCX reopening:
    We designed this reopening in a thoughtful way. We are only targeting $2.5 billion of AUM. If we get there quicker with a performance bounce-back, that's great. We'll close again. We've shown over the years that we focus on doing the right thing for those clients who are already with us.
  • Your favorite Dividend Paying Funds
    You can’t fake, manipulate or fudge a dividend payment by hiring a talented CPA.
    No cash on hand? Pay a stock dividend, or perhaps better, pay it in scrip (IOUs).
    https://www.accountingtools.com/articles/2017/5/16/types-of-dividends
    No retained earnings? No problem. Pay a nimble dividend out of current earnings.
    A few states—significantly, Delaware is one of them—permit dividends to be paid out of the net of current earnings and those of the immediately preceding year, both years taken as a single period, even if the balance sheet shows a negative earned surplus. Such dividends are known as nimble dividends.
    https://saylordotorg.github.io/text_business-law-and-the-legal-environment-v1.0-a/s47-05-dividends.html
    Lewis already addressed fudging at the fund level.
    Though I do agree that you don't need an especially talented CPA for these maneuvers. This is all just Corporations 101.
  • Your favorite Dividend Paying Funds
    Anyone have a list of dividend paying funds they recommend?
    Fundamentals are more complex than they seem.
    One of the simplest, yet most overlooked, stock market fundamentals is the dividend yield. Dividends are actual cash flows being paid out by corporations into the hands of investors.
    You can’t fake, manipulate or fudge a dividend payment by hiring a talented CPA.
    Dividends also happen to be one of the most resilient features of the stock market over the long-term.
    A little bumpy at times but the real growth rate of 2.1% over the rate of inflation over the last 100 years is impressive.
    That doesn’t sound like much but the inflation rate over this time frame was just shy of 3%. So nominal dividends have grown at an annual rate of roughly 5% since 1920.
    the-best-source-of-investment-income/
  • BUY - SELL - PONDER - MAY 2020

    This is a great thread and I hope someone will come forward to keep it going should Pud still be with his posture that this will be his last month to host the thread. He has done this for the past couple of years and pretty much feels, as I felt, it is time to move aside for another to step forward. Best wishes to you Pud ... and, thanks again for hosting the thread. I'm sure it's appreciated by many.
    Thanks Pud. I used to run a similar thread over at M* but work got in the way and I began to get late throwing up new threads for each month. When I created the short-lived M* forums alternative site last year after leaving the s--tty new forums at M*, I just established a 'Consolidated Buy/Sell/Why' thread that didn't need a new one to be created each month.....we would just add to it continuously. Maybe do that here?
  • BUY - SELL - PONDER - MAY 2020
    With equities having the strong run that they have had of late, and the fact that I was a buyer of equities during the stock market swoon, this has left me light on the income side of my portfolio and heavy on the equity side. Since, cash is paying very little I elected to use the proceeds from a maturing CD and add to the following funds. They were BLADX, FLAAX & PFANX. Combined they are kicking off a yield in the 4% range whereas if I had rolled the CD into another CD I was looking at a yield of less than 1%. I'm also thinking there well be some price appreciation coming to these funds as investors seek out yield and move away from holding large positions in cash.
    For now, I have decided to let my equities run. When I trim equities I will most likely raise my cash position with the equity sell proceeds. Then I'll await the next stock market pullback and repeat the (buy, hold, & sell) spiff process.
    This is a great thread and I hope someone will come forward to keep it going should Pud still be with his posture that this will be his last month to host the thread. He has done this for the past couple of years and pretty much feels, as I felt, it is time to move aside for another to step forward. Best wishes to you Pud ... and, thanks again for hosting the thread. I'm sure it's appreciated by many.
    Old_Skeet
  • Vanguard’s $50 Billion Woman Found Winners in Bond-Market Chaos
    “The Fed will be accommodative for years,” Wright-Casparius said.
    Seems to me like they've been "accomadative" since Greenspan.
  • Don’t even think of owning stocks unless you’re willing to buy and hold for at least 10 years
    @JohnN and @davidrmoran - Thanks for posting this. While I may disagree with the writer’s conclusions, the underlying topic being discussed is of value to most investors.
    -
    Just a quick read suggests this article is mostly gibberish. I agree overall that investing in risk markets should be done only with a 10-year or longer time horizon in mind. That’s because trends (both up and down) can persist for very long periods. Risk assets generally include stocks, real estate, distressed debt, commodities and longer dated investment grade bonds (which are highly sensitive to changes in prevailing interest rates).
    With the above aside, there are some problems with his supporting data, conclusions and logical (illogical?) extensions. Any “back testing” of bond returns needs to be taken with a large grain of salt. When have interest rates been so low? When, if ever, has the Federal Reserve engaged in such a massive and long lasting effort to keep interest rates low while pumping trillions of dollars into the economy (and markets)? This unprecedented effort dates back at least to late 2007 and - some would argue - back to Greenspan days. Volumes have now been written about the distortions arising from this prolonged low rate period. Also note that yields on investment grade / government bonds have been trending lower for the past 30 years (resulting in higher and higher bond prices).
    At this point, I can’t agree that investment grade longer duration bonds are “safer” for most investors than other risk assets. And, if dealing with this question in your portfolio, be sure to take into consideration that you very likely own more bonds than you think owing to those held by your balanced and allocation funds. I do still find value in bonds, even at today’s extremely low rates, as a “hedge” within a more diversified portfolio. Think of bond investments as “insurance”. The trifling return on them, if any, (and potential loss) is the cost / penalty you pay for “insurance” against widespread equity depreciation should the U.S. and global economies slide into a deep prolonged recession. I’m not predicting that. However, we typically carry insurance against things we don’t expect to happen. And if you’re a “portfolio watcher” as many of us are, those bond holdings will tend to smooth out your short term volatility and help you maintain your sanity.
    As an aside here ... a 10 year government bond purchased today and held to maturity will net you somewhere, I suspect, between 0.35% and 0.75% annually over that period - depending on fees and associated costs of ownership. On any given day an investment in the broader equity markets has a pretty good chance of returning more back to you than the bond would over a full year. Are investment grade long-dated bonds a “good” investment? I submit the answer is No. Can they be a useful hedging tool? Yes - in moderation,
    Disclosure - Funds that invest substantially in intermediate / longer duration bonds and which I own: DODLX, RPSIX, PBDIX
  • Chips and Geopolitics
    Seems like some beer and salsa might help the situation with chips and politics:
    The reason this matters is because chips matter for many use cases outside of PCs and servers — Intel’s focus — which is to say that TSMC matters. Nearly every piece of equipment these days, military or otherwise, has a processor inside. Some of these don’t require particularly high performance, and can be manufactured by fabs built years ago all over the U.S. and across the world; others, though, require the most advanced processes, which means they must be manufactured in Taiwan by TSMC.
    This is a big problem if you are a U.S. military planner. Your job is not to figure out if there will ever be a war between the U.S. and China, but to plan for an eventuality you hope never occurs. And in that planning the fact that TSMC’s foundries — and Samsung’s — are within easy reach of Chinese missiles is a major issue.
    https://stratechery.com/2020/chips-and-geopolitics/
  • Don’t even think of owning stocks unless you’re willing to buy and hold for at least 10 years

    My long-long term portfolio has several stock positions that haven't done anything but reinvest for over 20 years. Boring is beautiful when it comes to long-term wealth accumulation.
    My more active portfolio has a few like that, but I tend to trade a bit more in that account, as i did earlier this year.
  • Don’t even think of owning stocks unless you’re willing to buy and hold for at least 10 years
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-even-think-of-owning-stocks-unless-youre-willing-to-buy-and-hold-for-this-many-years-2020-05-19
    Opinion: Don’t even think of owning stocks unless you’re willing to buy and hold for at least 10 years
    M.Hulbert article
    If you want a 95% probability of stocks outperforming bonds, you better plan on 20 years....
    Imho maybe 3-10 yrs may see reasonable gains, but if hold on 20 yrs, may even be better...maybe ???++450s% by the time you are done [hopeful speculative thinking]
  • Mutual Funds with the Highest Perpetual Withdraw Rate
    From memory because I have done it so many times.
    VWINX(38/62) vs VWELX(65/35) no contest, over long term VWELX performance is about 10-15% better but SD(volatility) is about 50% higher and why VWINX is a better risk-adjust retuned fund.
    PRWCX is one of the best allocation funds. It ranks 1 for performance for 5-10-15 years. PRWCX performance is about 1.5% better annually than VWELX. PRWCX SD is a bit higher but it still wins. PRWCX is so good it even beat SP500 for 1-3-5-15 years(10 is close) for performance and definitely for SD.
    VWELX+VWINX are simpler with mainly 2 categories, US LC + higher-rated corp bonds. PRWCX is a flexible fund where the mangers made great calls.
    QQQ (all stocks) crush all the above for performance. For 3 years it's more than double of SPY+PRWCX and almost double for 5 years. QQQ also leads several % for 10-15. High tech rule the world.
  • Harvard’s Reinhart and Rogoff Say, "This Time Really Is Different"
    Interview with Harvard’s Reinhart and Rogoff.
    Some excerpts:
    The biggest positive productivity shock we’ve had over the last 40 years has been globalization together with technology. And I think if you take away the globalization, you probably take away some of the technology.
    ...you probably need a debt moratorium that’s fairly widespread for emerging markets and developing economies. As an analogy, the IMF or Chapter 11 bankruptcy is very good at dealing with a couple of countries or a couple of firms at a time. But just as the hospitals can’t handle all the Covid-19 patients showing up in the same week, neither can our bankruptcy system and neither can the international financial institutions
    I indeed hope it is the G-20 and not just the G-19. China needs to be on board with debt relief. That’s a big issue. The largest official creditor by far is China. If China is not fully on board on granting debt relief, then the initiative is going to offer little or no relief. If the savings are just going to be used to repay debts to China, well, that would be a tragedy.
    Do you see an inflationary surge at some point?
    KR: We don’t know where we will come out. So the probability is, for the foreseeable future, we’ll have deflation. But at the end of this, I think we’re going to have experienced an extremely negative productivity shock with deglobalization. In terms of growth and productivity, they will be lasting negative shocks, and demand may come back. And then you have the many forces that have led to very low inflation maybe going into reverse, either because of deglobalization or because workers will strengthen their rights. The market sees essentially zero chance of ever having inflation again. And I think that’s very wrong.
    BM: And what scars are left on economies once the pandemic passes?
    CR: Some of the scars are on supply chains. I don’t think we’ll return to their precrisis normal. We’re going to see a lot of risk aversion. We’ll be more inward-looking, self-sufficient in medical supplies, self-sufficient in food.
    Harvard’s Reinhart and Rogoff Say This Time Really Is Different:
    harvard-s-financial-crisis-experts-this-time-really-is-different
  • BUY - SELL - PONDER - MAY 2020
    Good morning, have place orders for buys: VDE, VONG, UNH, ITOT, SPY. New monies from 5/15 dividends and got paid last Fri.
    Will sell 50% of BRK.B [Stocks perform same as Buffet's recent energy levels - maybe more idle past few years].
    We are hopeful for summer recovery since covid-viral mortality/morbidity data has been limited [?bulls market favorable] the past few days [maybe curve flattening indeed is happening]. Maybe we will have slow/moderate economic recovery soon. We will see for sure in few weeks/months.
    Bought for FBND, PCI PDI for Mama's retired portfolio.
    Regards