Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning As of market close March 6th, according to the metrics of Old_Skeet's stock market barometer, the S&P 500 Index is extremely oversold with a reading of 168. This is down 7 points from last weeks close of 175 where the Index was also considered to be extremely oversold. A lower barometer reading indicates there is less investment value in the Index over a higher reading. During the week, the average naked short volume moved from a weekly average of 52% to 64%. A great deal changed there along with the VIX (which is a measure of volatility) which went from 29 to 36. The the stock Index's valuation gained a little ground through the week with an 18 point gain moving from a reading of 2954 to 2972. From a yield perspective, I'm finding that the US10YrT is now being listed at 0.767% (MarketWatch) while at the beginning of the year it was listed at 1.92%. With the stock market swoon the S&P 500 Index is currently listed with a dividend yield of 1.96% while at the beginning of the year it was listed at 1.82%. As you can see there is now a good yield advantage for the stock Index over the Ten Year Treasury. With this, I'm now favoring equity income over fixed income due to this yield spread. I also I feel that the stock market is somewhat oversold and bonds are extremely overbought. My three best performing funds this past week were SVAAX +3.14% ... PGUAX +3.10% ... and, DIFAX +1.88%. All of these are good dividend paying funds.
This week I thought I'd write about Old_Skeet's SWAG (Scientific Wild Ass Guess). There are a number of sources that I use to formulate my SWAG. A couple of these I'll cover in this writting. One is the forward earning estimate (FE) and the trailing twelve months earnings (TTM) for the S&P 500 Index. I usually get this data from S&P. Then another data point that I use is a multiplier. This multiplier is derived from using the total return from a couple of my multi sector income funds for their five year average total return period. This is then used to compare the earnings yield of the S&P 500 Index to my better performing multi sector bond fund's total return. The TTM earnings yield for the Index computes to 4.7%. While, the total retun for my better performing multi sector income funds is found to be about 5%. Thus, the multi sector bond funds currently have the advantage by this metric.
But, that is not all! We still have forward earnings estimates to consider for the stock Index. Using a revised forward earnings estimate number of $159.00 (down from $175.00) computes to an earnings yield of 5.3%. This favors the stock Index.
Combining the two to produce a blended number TTM (4.7%) and the fordward number (5.3%) produces a blended earnings yield of 5%. With this, there is no current advantage to either using the blended metric. In looking at this from a little different perspective and by using the multipler number 20 (representing a 5% earnings yield) and dividing it by the closing value of 2972 produces an earnings number of $148.60. At the close of this month, for March, S&P projects TTM earnings to be $139.95. And, using the full year $159.00 earning number puts the stock Index at 3180. Using this analysis puts the Index near term overvalued (valuation ahead of earnings) and for the full year undervalued (valuation behind earnings).
I'm with the thought that the market is going to reflect a TTM valuation model of what have you done for me over what are you projected to do for me model (FE) due the uncertainty about the coronavirus and the virus' effect on forward earnings. This has caused many investors that were using leverage to deleverage and sell stocks which has lead to the stock market swoon we are currently facing.
What does this mean? For me, I'm not looking for stocks to out perform my better performing multi sector income funds over the next few years. However, I am favoring my beaten down equity income funds to out perform the stock Index and my better performing multi sector funds over the near term. Just this past week my two best performing funds were of the equity dividend paying type. They were SVAAX +3.14% & PGUAX +3.10%.
With this, I plan to position new money (generated by my portfolio) towards my good dividend paying equity mutual funds. In addition, I plan to open a position in IDIVX which is up +2.95% for the week.
I hope this weeks barometer report has provided you with an insight that might not have been previsouly considered. Just because this is what Old_Skeet's course of action will be inside of his own portfolio doen't not mean that you should follow my plan of action.
Simply stated ... "The stock and bond markets might not follow my SWAG."
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !! Last week was a good test for your bond funds.
Multi-SEMMX,IOFIX,EIXIX,VCFAX,PTIAX,JMUTX,JMSIX. PTIAX(1.1%) continues its momentum which tells me they own higher rates bonds than the rest. JMSIX(0.5%) had a nice week too. IOFIX (0.40%) continues to be the best securitized.
"Cash sub"- DHEAX (0.2%) proved why high IG bonds is important. SEMMX surprisingly lost -0.1.
Bank loans - lost too much and the category is at -2.1% for YTD and similar to HY performance which has a much higher duration.
HY Muni-all the ones I follow lost but GHYAX -1%(bigger loss)...OPTAX only -0.3 and even ST duration NVHAX -0.5%.
For core plus: PINCX 1.8%...BCOIX 1.5%....DODIX only 0.8%...UBISX 1.15%...PTTRX 1.6%
But we also learned last week that funds with low SD for 3 years didn't perform that well exactly when you needed them...IISIX -0.2%...JMUTX -0.2%...PIMIX -0.3%...SSTHX -0.3% While much "riskier" IOFIX with SD = 2.7 performed extremely well YTD=3.2% and one week=0.4%
Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !! @Mona: thanks for your post. A number of
years back, I got flagged at VG. over a small 4 figure amount. I guess it was more of a warning than anything else . I had recently opened the account. Thanks for mentioning the qualifying amount then selling a bunch of shares. Did you wait the 30,60, or 90 day requirement before selling ? It seems to be some funds require a certain amount be in the account or in will be sold out ?
Also before closing one more question. Did you try your buy then turn around & sell with a VG fund or a different fund that they sell ?
Thanks for your time, Derf
Derf, some time ago, I thought SIGIX was THE fund to own and thought it would close for eternity. So, at Vanguard and Schwab, I purchased the minimum to qualify for institutional shares. While I am embarrassed to say, I did in 5 different accounts, including two taxable accounts where I did not want this fund.
Being all accounts had institutional shares and no short term redemption fee, almost immediately, I sold all but 1 share 4 accounts and for good or bad, built a position in the 5th account which is a Roth IRA.
Fast forward. Today, I have SIGIX in the Roth IRA with Schwab, 1 share in my Schwab One account and 1 share in a Vanguard IRA account. I can't give you a good reason why I hold onto the 1 share accounts. Probably just laziness.
Regarding your last question, the only workaround that I was familiar with Vanguard's 30 day "frequent trading policy", was if you sold a Vanguard fund you were able to write a letter of instructions to Vanguard requesting to purchase that same fund within the 30 day period that you sold it. However, August 13, 2019, Vanguard changed their policy, and in fact, broadened it, and now you can't make any purchases or redemptions with a letter of instructions.
Mona
Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !! Years ago I worked as a developer for mutual funds transfer agent which handles all these funds trades. The following is a common process: the big shops like VG, Fidelity, Schwab, and others have their own internal transfer agent. Schwab aggregate each day PER EACH FUND all the buy and sell orders as ONE trade. This means DHEIX sees Schwab as one huge client. Then, after Schwab gets the shares it will separate it by each client/account. DHEIX still knows the names of each client and how many shares each has. In most cases, Schwab is the one who handles short-term and most other stuff. Most private mutual funds don't bother to tell the big shops what to do.
This is why I said Fidelity make their own rules.
There are several tricks I use not to pay ST fees :-)
Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !! @Mona: thanks for your post. A number of
years back, I got flagged at VG. over a small 4 figure amount. I guess it was more of a warning than anything else . I had recently opened the account. Thanks for mentioning the qualifying amount then selling a bunch of shares. Did you wait the 30,60, or 90 day requirement before selling ? It seems to be some funds require a certain amount be in the account or in will be sold out ?
Also before closing one more question. Did you try your buy then turn around & sell with a VG fund or a different fund that they sell ?
Thanks for your time, Derf
Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !! I would just suggest that you research short term trading positions of bond oef funds you might consider for short term parking purposes. I have read poster comments of those who have attempted to use DHEIX in that manner. Diamond Hill issued warnings to those investors that they cannot execute their particular investing practice, if investors move in and out of this fund quickly and often. Some funds can red flag posters who do that, and you can lose your investing privileges with that fund. I have personally experienced that when I was with Fidelity a couple of years ago with SPFLX/SPFPX, when it was widely recommended as a cash alternative fund. American Beacon contacted Fidelity brokerage and suspended my ability to invest in that fund in the future, because I was interfering with their ability to carry out their particular investing practices and efforts to keep fees low. I think funds that carry a lot of cash, or assets considered "cash alternatives" allow that short term trading practice more than funds who use mortgage securities, bank loans, and even some corporates.
What's up with Templeton Global Bond? He also went big into Ukraine debt a few
years ago - not sure how that turned out, as I was long out of the fund by then.
My impression is they made big bets on Argentina and it really burned them.
PDI, PCI or PTY I've been waiting years for an opportunity to get into some of Pimco's amazingly high performing CEFs, and I'm thinking I'm going to get it. (These will go into my solo 401K, with retirement 15+ years away, so I'm happy to wait out volatility.) Anyone have any insights as to the big differences between the three and which might make the better long-term bet? It seems like PTY has much lower leverage (and therefore expenses), as well as a lower premium, but it doesn't seem much different in the end result.
Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !! FPFIX is a pretty good fund invested mainly in securitized and low duration=1.7 and a good "cash sub". Another similar fund is DHEIX with duration=1.4. Both invested mostly in IG bond rating. I like DHEIX a bit more because it's yield = 3.9 while FPFIX = 2.6.
Securitized is my favorite category for
years because deals better with rates.
I ran it thru Port Vis (
link)
and DHEIX looks better for performance, SD and Sharpe
Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !! The following is a research I have done for myself
I was looking for a fund to park my money until things come down but also make some money and searched for the followings:
1) higher rated bonds.
2) flexible. The above 2 mean...the Intermediate Core-Plus category.
3) The securitized category should be the biggest because this category behaves better in rate changes. Also some IG Corp bonds.
4) higher income than 3% which is harder to find in a fund with higher rated bonds.
5) ST+LT + last 1-2 weeks with good performance
and I found only one winner PINCX(link). ER=0.74....AUM=2.7 Bill....yield > 3%....IG rating > 90%....Duration=5.1....securitized > 62%
TGLMX has better performance YTD but not 1-3
years and no corp but Yield=3.9%. PTIAX is another possibility, mainly in lower-rated securitized + some Munis, yield about 3.9%. PINCX has better performance for YTD+one year. (
Chart) of all 3.
BCOIX,DODIX,USIBX,PDBZX performance trails for YTD,1,3
years and yield < 3%
GTO is another option.
Basically, all the funds I mentioned above are pretty good.
What's up with Templeton Global Bond? TGBAX is both a bond fund and a currency fund. Hassenstab seems to invest in bonds anywhere in the world based on how he expects those bonds to perform independent of currency movements. In that sense, one can think of the fund as a hedged international bond fund.
But rather than hedging back to the dollar, he takes these assets and makes big currency bets. He can be long on country A's bonds while being short on country A's currency. So he not only decouples bonds from currency, he extensively plays the currency markets as well.
Lewis is correct that Argentinian bonds burned the fund. While in the long term I expect the fund to do well, this shows the risks one takes in concentrated portfolios. A manager's best ideas sometimes are not all that good.
His unusual approach: concentrating investments in a handful of countries that he surmised would offer the highest returns without defaulting. He became a major lender for countries such as Uruguay, Ghana and Ukraine, and government officials routinely visited him seeking his investments.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/franklins-hasenstab-girds-for-a-downturn-11571304601The fund has been a great diversifier, though. No matter which way your other funds moved, this fund did not move the same way. That's because it hasn't been moving in any direction - returning roughly nothing for the past few
years.
What's up with Templeton Global Bond? I think this has always been more of a “currency fund,” along with the other Hassenstab fund. And with the dollar having been the least weak currency over the last several years (especially since zero rates have reigned in many European countries), foreign currencies have done (large/high level trends) poorly vs the dollar.
I think Hassenstab is part of the “I’m going to invest according to my views, because I’m RIGHT, dammit,” crowd....some other members of that club include Arnott (PAUIX/PAAIX has been overweight EM bonds for years). Well, a stopped clock can be right twice a day....agree with the above sentiment. Time to move on. :)
What's up with Templeton Global Bond? I loved this fund as a diversifier. Now it seems to be lagging quite a bit for a good 5 years or more.
Is all well at Templeton?
VLAAX @VintageFreak, I thought those two funds were different versions of the same portfolio haha.
But I just looked at performance charts comparing the two funds, and VLAAX actually outperformed over almost every time frame. And over 10
years, it’s $5K difference (not sure if either fund changed their mandate over that time frame). Just something I picked up, as VLAAX has gotten a lot of talk recently :)