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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Consuelo Mack's WealthTrack Preview: Guest: David Giroux, Manager, TRP Appreciation Fund: (PRWCX)
    FYI: (Fund is closed to new investors.)
    Regards,
    Ted
    January 17, 2019
    Dear WEALTHTRACK Subscriber,
    How concerned are you about stock market risk? Have occasional eight hundred point drops in the Dow, corrections in various indices, presidential tweets and trade disputes had you reaching for your Pepto-Bismol or Valium?
    Market volatility has definitely picked up in the last year or so. Not an unusual occurrence. There have been many rocky periods, plus several euphoric highs and nail-biting lows during the long bull market that began in 2009. But those are not the risks that this week’s guest is focusing on. He is looking at much more fundamental, structural changes that he says are affecting the long-term future of specific companies, lots of them.
    He is David Giroux, Portfolio Manager and Chairman of the Investment Advisory Committee of T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Fund which is a Morningstar Gold Medalist and carries a Five-Star rating. Giroux was named Morningstar’s Allocation and Alternatives Fund Manager of the Year in 2017, the second time he was so honored and has been nominated for the award several other times.
    It is Giroux’s role as Head of Investment Strategy at T. Rowe Price that is the focus of much of today’s conversation because he is leading research projects across T. Rowe Price’s investment platform and asset classes. One of his major efforts is identifying secular risk in companies and avoiding companies that have it. He and his team estimate that over a third of S&P 500 companies are facing risks that will result in lower performance over the next ten years and that their numbers are increasing.
    As always, this week’s program is available to our PREMIUM subscribers right now. In our exclusive EXTRA feature with David Giroux you’ll learn about a book that he says has improved his and his team’s productivity significantly.
    Thank you for watching. Have a lovely weekend and make the week ahead a profitable and a productive one.
    Best regards,
    Consuelo
    Video Clip:

    M* Snapshot PRWCX:
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/prwcx/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot PRWCX:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/prwcx
    PRWCX Is Ranked #19 In The (50-70/% E) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/allocation-50-to-70-equity/t-rowe-price-capital-appreciation-fund/prwcx
  • STATX - what am I missing?
    Taking a closer look at this now than I did in the last thread, and I'm wondering how far off you are with that "Bernie" comment.
    The strategy has echoes of RPHYX's - buying "orphaned securities; exceedingly short-term (think 30-90 day maturity) securities for which there are few other buyers."
    [Than you Professor for Riverpark's fund profile: https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2012/09/riverpark-short-term-high-yield-fund-rphyx-july-2011-updated-october-2012/]
    In the case of RPHYX, the remnants are short term junk bonds that the fund manager believes have little risk of default. In contrast, STATX is picking up short term Treasuries (with presumably even less risk of default).
    While both funds may be picking up coins from the sidewalk (bonds that aren't being bought by other investors), ISTM that RPHYX is picking up nickels and STATX is picking up pennies.
    So how does STATX generate an SEC yield a full percentage point higher than RPHIX's, even allowing for its 1/2 percent lower fees? Especially since it is investing in higher grade bonds, slightly shorter average maturity (1.0 vs. 1.1 years), and lower duration (0.01 vs. 0.55 years)?
    The only thing I see is the use of reverse repurchasing agreements, which as the prospectus states, has "a leveraging effect on the Fund’s NAV".
  • Morningstar Fair Market Value Chart -- Cheapest Since 2012
    Hi @Derf and good morning. Thanks for your question.
    I did put a little bit of cash to work recently opening first step positions in DWGAX, INUTX, PONAX and TEQIX since I have now reached my new asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity. My focus this year is to grow my portfolio's income generation while maintaing my asset allocation along with achieving some growth of principal. Over the past five years my portfolio's income generation has ranged from a low of 3.0% to a high of 5.3% with an average of 4.4%. I'd like to get my income average a littler higher. Ten years ago its average was north of 5%. As most of us know yields have dropped during this time frame but are now (more recently) back on the rise. Even with the past, and more recent, market swoons my portfolio's total return has been better than nine percent annually over the past ten years; however, I also held a greater percentage in equities earlier than I presently do. At one time I was about 70% equity but I have now reduced this down to 40% equity (through time) due to an age based asset allocation realignment. Now being 70+ years in age I consider my present asset allocation, noted above, to be an all weather asset allocation, for me, as it holds ample cash, generates ample income, and should still grow my principal over time.
  • Sears: Open For Business
    Have a Kenmore washer, dryer & canister vacuum cleaner all 20+ years old and still running fine. The name has always been highly respected. That’s a bit odd - since Sears was known to brand devices made by assorted manufacturers with the prized Kennmore label.
    Let’s not get carried away here. Bought a Craftsman power lawn mower a few years ago and it was a piece of trash. Took it back for a refund.
  • Grandeur Peak reopens some of its funds with restrictions
    I've held 3-4 of their funds since they opened the shop. It went swimmingly until it no longer did. When their funds were outpacing the pack the boys from Utah looked like geniuses, making company visits where few venture, and seeming to have a great team. The last two shareholder letters paint a very different picture; there's talk of mistakes, the need to move personnel around, a recognition that no matter how great a company might appear to fund management, the market is cruel. I still ponder what a "guardian portfolio manager" ought to be doing with respect to the rest of his team. I'm holding for now, but I previously dumped a significant percentage of my foreign (over)exposure.
    I think we all like honest and direct shareholder letters. The situation at GP reminds me of Bridgeway Funds, another small, independent company that had great numbers for several years. Bridegeway does good with its profits and seems to be a good place to work. John Montgomery writes fine analyses of his firm's fund performance. It really sounds good, but the performance of their small and micro-cap funds does not cut the mustard. Montgomery's first vehicle was BRUSX, a real winner for a long time. But in the last 10 years he's may behind his benchmark, losing an average of 3.58.% in the last 5 years, for example. Le marché est cruel.
  • Sears: Open For Business
    @Derf - I've been using an electric Kenmore clothes dryer since 1976. Two years ago I had to replace the belt which spins the drum.
    I also have a 24-yr old Kenmore washer still going strong.
  • The Money Honey: Maria Bartiromo Was a Generational Icon for Financial Television. What Happened?
    I still say she looks like a bloody lemur.
    My SO has, for many years, called her "racoon lady", so I see your point. :-)
  • Grandeur Peak reopens some of its funds with restrictions
    Considering adding to GPIOX, but just plotted out performance vs VMVFX and it looks like VMVFX did just as well in the good years, and outperformed massively last year. (Not apples to apples, since GPIOX is just international & smaller cap, but plugging GPGOX or any other GP fund into the charts makes no difference.)
    Still on the fence. Grandeur Peak has managers with a long track record of success at Wasatch.
  • Concerns about FPACX
    Will consider selling my FPACX if they liquidate FPPTX which I have held for years. No reason to leave any money behind.
  • Concerns about FPACX
    I also owned many years ago and sold it.. Seems Mr. Romick has alway been held in high regard. I was never able to understand that.
  • Concerns about FPACX
    This is a fund David owns and keeps in high regard as per his input on this site.This is supposed to be a cautious mod allocation fund but lost about 6.5% in the past year with about 25% cash in assets, ie loss greater than the s&p 500 index by about 2%. FPACX has lost about 25% of its AUM in the past few years. Has Steve Romick and his clan lost their supposed mandate? Or is it very poor equity choices. What say thee?
  • Chuck Jaffe's Money Life Show: Guest: Andrew Foster, Manager , Seafarer Overseas G&I Fund: (SFGIX)
    FYI: (Slide mouse to 16:30 minutes for Andrew Foster interview.)
    Andrew Foster, portfolio manager at the Seafarer Growth and Income Fund, said he expects 2019 to be better for emerging markets than last year was, but warned that it won't be a great year, just better than the recent past. More importantly, with emerging markets coming back, he expects them to deliver the diversification benefits that they mostly have fallen short of in recent years. Also on the show, Gerg McBride of BankRate.com discusses they pay raises workers are expecting -- or not -- for the year ahead, David Trainer of New Constructs reviews his top Danger Zone picks from 2018, and Tom Plumb of the Plumb Funds has the Market Call.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/moneylife-with-chuck-jaffe/e/58176652?autoplay=true
    M*: Snapshot SFGIX:
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/sfgix/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot SFGIX:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/sfgix
    SFGIX Is Unranked In The (DEM) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/diversified-emerging-mkts/seafarer-overseas-growth-and-income-fund/sfgix
  • Experience with Target Funds?
    Has anyone figured out why T. Rowe offers 2 distinct lines (“Retirement” and “Target”)? I looked at the 2015 version of each and both have a glide path (which grows more conservative over time) and both earned Price’s “Moderate” risk assessment. If I had the time, I’d enjoy digging deeper - but not at this time.
    One thought is that one line became saturated with investments to the point where it was putting too much stress (bloat) on the underlying funds it invests in. So, a new line using different underlying funds would help with that. Seems like I did read some “rumblings” re a possible saturation point many years ago in one of their Retirement funds reports.
    Additionally, they may contract out with some big corporations to meet their employees’ retirement needs (401K and other). Thus, different corporations might buy into different versions of what appear to be very similar investment products.
  • Ed Yardeni latest piece
    “The scenario I just sketched isn’t a forecast. It is a description of exactly what has been happening in Japan. The forecast is that most of the rest of the world will follow suit. Japan is the poster child for the rest of us who aren’t having enough babies to replace ourselves.”
    (BTW- That’s not a new thought. It’s been around for many years.)
    So why is this country intent on deploying armed forces to the southern border to turn away hungry, willing to work (and consume), families with babies? This isn’t an argument for open borders. But with severe labor shortages across much of the nation, it seems not in our own self interest to discourage new arrivals. MAGA
    As a prospective employer, would you be willing to offer a job to someone who had just walked 2,000 miles in search of work?
  • Experience with Target Funds?
    I regard them as substantially the same as robo advisors.
    @msf, from someone who has half their nest egg in a robo, I'd say you are right on point. There hasn't been much difference in return over the last 3 years for my robo as compared to a comparable TRP retirement fund. The best part about a robo for me, I can't tinker with it.
    But you probably won’t find very many here who have used the funds to any degree. The apparent contradiction is largely explained by the fact that those who actively read / post on a mutual fund investing board probably are the type of investors who prefer to manage their investments directly. In addition, they possess a higher degree of investment knowledge and a higher investment comfort level than the average American.
    @Hank, a very politically correct statement for the site IMlessthanHO. I have a slightly different opinion but it may not be accepted well here. I would be willing to wager that most of the people who post at MFO really don't do any better and in many cases do worse than a retirement fund over time. I've read the elaborate schemes here and heard the results. Those elaborate schemes to me are really just a feel-good way for individuals to feel like they are steering the ship at a more profitable course. But heck, I concede it is more fun to drive the boat than sit in the back. :)
    @Starchild, I don't know anything about Vanguard target funds, but at T. Rowe Price they have 2 different offerings for their funds, Target date funds and Retirement funds. The difference being target date changes over time as you get closer to retirement. Their "retirement" funds hold the ratio you purchase and don't change over the years. Kind of nice to have the choice I think.
  • Callan Periodic table is out
    Hi @Derf & @Junkster: I think the high road was more productive. And, then there is Junkster as we can not discount what he as done with his ability to trade in and out of positions. One of the great things about investing is that there is no one pathway to success.
    For me, I plan to remain well diverisfied but weight more towards what has worked more times than not over the past rolling five years. With this, will cash make a third apperance? I'm thinking that it will and I have weighted my cash allocation accordingly which, for me, includes US currency, cash savings, money market funds and CD's.
    It will be interesting for me to see how my new asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% fixed income and 40% equity rolls during the coming years. Also, remember, I hold a good number of hybrid funds that make up better than 40% of my overall portfolio. These hybrid fund managers change their fund's asset allocations (within certain ranges) based upon their read of the forever changing investment climate. To me, this adds some good flexability to my portfolio making it more adaptive to the markets than I would otherwise have.
    I wish all "Good Investing" and continued success.
    Old_Skeet
  • Callan Periodic table is out
    @Old_Skeet: I took the low road. Bottom 3 for last 20,10,5 years.
    20 yrs. non & u.s. fixed 11 times , cash 8
    10 yrs. non & u.s. fixed 7 - 6 times, em &cash 5 a piece
    5 yrs. non-fixed 3 , em,cash, non u.s equty, u.s fixed, hi yield 2 a piece.
    Good investing to all, Derf
  • Vanguard Recommends Investors Increase Non-U.S. Holdings To 40%
    I remember good years for US stocks, when EM outperformed US. But I do not know bad years for US stocks, when EM performed well. So, your attitude to EM depends first of all on your predictions to US market.
  • Experience with Target Funds?
    @Starchid, Thanks,
    I don’t have an answer as to whether this fund is the optimum choice for you. But I think if you could close your eyes for 15-25 years and not look at it, you’d be quite pleased with the compounded return. Trouble is, most of here like to look often. That leads to the inevitable comparisons to other types of investments. And from time to time one type or another will outperform (over shorter 5-10 year periods).
    That .14% ER allows Vanguard to keep more of your contribution compounding for you rather than paying fund expenses. It’s refreshing to hear from someone still contributing to a plan. Take the advice / musings of us “oldsters” with a grain of salt. At 70+ capital preservation starts to become a paramount concern.
  • Experience with Target Funds?

    This is very helpful Hank. Thank you! I admire the simplicity of the fund, (which seems puzzling why Bogle would be apposed to) and that I can add my $6000 a year into it and be done with it. And yes, the low fee is attractive to me. My only reservation would be the amount of Int'l I would be purchasing, but I guess the diversification couldn'y hurt. Like you said, there could be worse choices out there.
    “Half of all 401(k) accounts now hold 100 percent of savings in a target date fund. Just over 30 percent of overall 401(k) assets are in target date funds ...” (2018).
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnwasik/2018/11/12/what-it-takes-to-be-a-401k-millionaire/
    @Starchild - It certainly appears a good many Americans are using target date funds. But you probably won’t find very many here who have used the funds to any degree. The apparent contradiction is largely explained by the fact that those who actively read / post on a mutual fund investing board probably are the type of investors who prefer to manage their investments directly. In addition, they possess a higher degree of investment knowledge and a higher investment comfort level than the average American.
    That 50% participation rate cited in the Forbes article is due in some measure to many plan sponsors using target date funds as the default option in their plans. I’d say that for many who have very busy lives working and raising families these funds are certainly superior to not investing at all or letting their investments sit in a money market fund. That, I think, is the primary rationale behind their existence (along with an additional way for fund companies to garner assets).
    Eager to hear to what extent MFO participants use / have used these vehicles. More likely, I think, MFO members may know family members, neighbors, etc. who use them). On a few rare occasions I’ve put money into one or more of Price’s target date funds for shorter periods because the particular holdings were useful at that time and the ER looked attractive. That’s not what they were designed for, of course.
    @Ted’s link to Bogle is interesting. I’d certainly agree that bonds no longer offer the degree of protection (against equity sell-offs) they did a couple decades ago when many of these these funds were devised - because of still historically low rates. The recent late 2018 market carnage tended to bear that out. For one, I’m not prepared to write bonds off entirely, thinking there are a lot of hybrid or diversified offerings in bondland which are still worth holding for diversification purposes. (Possibly fodder for another thread?)
    -
    Re: @Starchild’s holding: A glance shows VTTHX (Vanguard Target 2035) invested exclusively in Vanguard’s index funds, with roughly 75% in equities (domestic & international) and 25% in fixed income. It has a remarkably low 0.14% ER. No doubt, the glide slope will soften its (somewhat high) risk profile over the years.