FYI: The booming loan market for highly indebted companies has faced a lot of scrutiny in recent months. The IMF has repeatedly aired its grievances. Multiple central banks, as well as the banker of central banks, the Bank for International Settlements, have chimed in with their concerns as well. And last week, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren called for tighter regulation on what she believes is “a significant risk to the financial system and the American economy.”
Beyond deteriorating protections for lenders, critics have grown wary of just who is buying these loans. In recent years, it has increasingly been retail investors.
Regards,
Ted
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/11/20/1542706123000/Who-s-buying-leveraged-loans-anyways-/

Once logged into Vanguard, this message appeared:
Converting to Admiral Shares
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You can now own lower-cost Admiral™ Shares for almost 40 of our index mutual funds for a minimum of just $3,000 each.
If higher minimums were keeping you from converting, select Yes below to find out if you can start saving money today.
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When you convert from Investor Shares to Admiral Shares, you're still invested in the same mutual fund but you keep more of your investment returns thanks to lower expense ratios.
For example, would you rather invest $50,000 in:
•Investor Shares, which would cost an average of $90 a year? Or...
•Admiral Shares, which would cost an average of $55 a year?*
A $35 difference may not seem like much, but imagine how that might add up over time. Consider this hypothetical example:
Assume you invest $50,000 and hold onto it for 10 years (no additions, no withdrawals). The investment earns an average annual return of 6%, and the $35 annual expense ratio difference holds true the entire time. After 10 years, your Admiral Shares investment could be worth about $600 more than if it were in Investor Shares. (This doesn’t represent any particular investment; your actual savings could be higher or lower. The rate of return is not guaranteed.)
Admiral Shares minimum investment requirements
Minimums are assessed per fund, per account:
•Most index funds start at $3,000.
•Most actively managed funds start at $50,000.
•Some sector-specific index funds start at $100,000.
Fund-specific minimums can be found in each fund's profile.
After the conversion
You'll pay no taxes or fees on the conversion because you're simply moving money within the same fund.
But if you're invested in an actively managed fund or any other fund that offers both Admiral and Investor Shares, we may reclassify you back to Investor Shares if your investment drops below the Admiral Shares minimum.
Learn how converted shares are priced
Do you want to convert to Admiral Shares now?
*Vanguard Investor Shares average expense ratio: 0.18%. Vanguard Admiral Shares average expense ratio: 0.11%. All averages are asset-weighted. Source: Vanguard, as of December 31, 2017.

FYI: This past week was saw another positive move up by bulls – especially in the Dow and S&P 500; the NASDAQ was not quite as enthusiastic. Wednesday’s rally was on the legs of an election that was seen as market friendly or at least not as bad as it could have been. Essentially – paying people a lot of money to get nothing done the next 2 years – woo hoo!
Regards,
Ted
https://www.stocktrader.com/2018/11/11/weekly-market-recap-nov-11-2018/

@hank- I have to tell you, it really has shaken my complacency with respect to our place on the Russian River. It's only 20 minutes from last years inferno in Santa Rosa, and then we have Paradise this year. As I was driving to and from the river place this weekend I was looking over the country that we were driving through, and thinking that virtually all of it is just as susceptible to wildfire as Santa Rosa and Paradise.
I used to kind of think that because the river runs through the back yard there would be plenty of water if anything ever got started. Now I realize that just being close to water means absolutely nothing once one of these fires gets going.

California can certainly let PGE go bankrupt without letting it shut down. I am sure the state doesn't want to have to run a utility, but PGE could be forced to bankruptcy and sell off it's assets. this would leave the bondholders fighting over pennies.
It is extremely unlikely any of this will happen in the next few years, but it doesn't have to happen for the bonds to trade lower. Unless you are able to figure out GE's complex finances, these are probably a better bet in the short run.
But there are probably better high yields out there with less uncertainty. Face it, if you put a meaningful amount of money into these things, can you really watch while the political meat grinder in California goes after all PGE assets to pay off all those poor homeless people? It is going to get a lot uglier than it is now.
And there will be new fires next year

Thanks, @Old_Joe. Wow, poor ratepayers, poor California. (A friend lost her home and essentially everything in the Thomas fire last year. I can't imagine the collective pain being felt in all those wildfire areas.)
And I (along with many fellow citizens) was p-o'd about the comparatively really minor insurance-related scam our utility tried to pull when their oldest, dirtiest coal plant went down a couple of years ago .... They tried to double charge the ratepayers for both the replacement power and the extreme, uninsured costs of the plant fix, for a plant far beyond its design life.
Then an insider just recently spilled the beans; they figured they'd save $ by not buying insurance on their unreliable coal plants, 'cause, hey, they could just get the ratepaying schmucks to pay the whole tab when something went wrong. Not even the captive public ute commission could vote to dun the ratepayers for the whole tab after that revelation.

:)
Actually, we’re in a similar situation. No NG in our area. Have a 500 gallon propane tank (known as a “pig”) in the yard and a local supplier delivers by truck. Years ago the neighborhood association attempted to move everyone to a “small local (propane) distribution system” as you referenced. Didn’t get off the ground.

I agree with @Ted with respect to the State not letting PG&E go broke. However, things are very unsettled in Sacramento right now with respect to State oversight of PG&E, with talk of possibly breaking PG&E up into several smaller units. My best guess is that nothing will come of this, but it's another unknown factor right now.
With respect to PG&E's liability for last year's fires, the State has allowed PG&E to fund their liabilities with bonds which will be funded by ongoing and future charges to PG&E customers, so these bonds are revenue bonds for all practical purposes.
While it has yet to be determined if PG&E is in fact responsible for the current fire situation, Sacramento is preparing to initiate legislation similar to last year's, again allowing PG&E to fund their liabilities by revenue bonds if that becomes necessary.
I have no idea if the bonds being discussed by @DavidV are part of this special liability setup, but as long as PG&E is in business they will have revenue, and as long as they have revenue from captive customers who have no choice in the matter, that income revenue seems safe enough.
On another perspective regarding the current fire damage, I've not seen any specific news articles regarding rebuilding, but from very good background knowledge I can note that the current construction labor market in Northern California is already so over-stressed that there is virtually no chance of significant rebuilding in the Paradise area any time within the foreseeable future. All available labor is already fully employed in the Santa Rosa fire ares from last years fires, and even there it's estimated that additional labor resources won't be available for several years.

This says that Vanguard will be integrating its 401(k) processing with Health Equity's HSA. It doesn't sound like any new HSA product is being offered. Interestingly, it seems to characterize HSAs as retirement savings:

For Vanguard participants who elect to save in a HealthEquity HSA, Vanguard’s Retirement Readiness Tool technology will integrate their HSA information with their 401(k) balance and other assets to give them a comprehensive view of their current and future retirement savings.

Vanguard already offers some of its funds through Health Equity and through a couple of other HSAs. Here's Vanguard's retail page for those HSAs:
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/whatweoffer/overview/healthsavings
Health Equity overhauled its HSA about three years ago. It used to offer inexpensive access to a pretty good set of funds if I recall correctly, but switched to all Vanguard. Its HSA account costs 40 basis points/year. If you've got $10K in your HSA that costs more than several other HSAs, though if you want a fairly wide selection of Vanguard funds, this HSA can still work well for you.
It offers index funds through cheaper institutional clones rather than through Admiral shares of retail funds, but how much of a cost difference does that amount to?
HealthEquity retail HSA:
https://www.healthequity.com/doclib/hsa/hsa-invest.pdf

@johnN It is very difficult to imagine PG&E bankruptcy. First, its liability for California fires should established, then the size of liabilities ordered by court should be really huge to bankrupt the company. The notes will mature in 2 years and it is very unlikely any decision will be made before that.

What's the thinking behind the list of "Top Emerging Market Funds To Buy"?
It seems this is the top half (10/21) of US News' list of Emerging Markets Bond funds.
https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/rankings/emerging-markets-bond
US News' rankings don't represent buy recommendations. They're just aggregations of five other sources of rankings ("Morningstar, Lipper, Zacks, TheStreet.com, and CFRA") , where those other rankings likewise don't represent buy recommendations.
https://money.usnews.com/money/personal-finance/investing/articles/2010/02/23/about-the-us-news-mutual-fund-score
For example, for M*, US News links to M*'s star rating methodology. The star ratings are retrospective. In contrast, M*'s analyst ratings are intended to be used prospectively. But those aren't the ratings that US News is looking at.
With respect to funds that invest primarily in emerging market bonds, how about TGBAX? Aside from cash and short term (9 month or shorter) holdings in Treasuries, virtually all of this fund's bond holdings are in EM bonds (per semi-annual statement), and AFAIK have been for several years.
It has beaten all the funds listed over the past year (1.81%). It sports an ER (0.71%) that's within one basis point of the cheapest fund posted.
From the ETF column, we see that at least Jeff Reeves over at US News likes the idea of hedging yens and Euros. Now if one doesn't like having exposure to these currencies, why stop at neutral? That's Hassenstab's thinking (TGBAX) as well. "We also continued to hold net-negative positions in the euro and Japanese yen as hedges against a broadly strengthening US dollar..."
Semiannual report, June 30, 2018.

So, this time is different still applies, yes?
One may diversify to a point of a wash of profits potential.
Although it appears that the "save the markets" QE program saved our financial butts (U.S.) for the time being has worked......the price for this may have to be paid again.
The U.S. still remains the front runner in the financial turd pile.
The below chart has only a few non-U.S. choices. DXJ being the only close match for returns over the past 4 years. A longer time frame chart would indicate better performance for the U.S. equity market against others.
DXJ has much of its stimulus/growth from the Bank of Japan and its large ownership of Japanese equity sectors.
Wishing the best, to those, in choosing where to diversify globally for the positive benefit of the portfolio.
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SPY,IXUS,IEUR,DXJ,FNMIX&p=6&O=011000
NEW !!! This WSJ article did open w/o subscription.........don't know how you'll do with this. NOPE.......won't open again. The link line tells much of the story for BOJ and its involvement with their marketplace.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bank-of-japans-bond-and-stock-holdings-top-100-of-gdp-1542086889

FYI: This week the White House press secretary tweeted out a doctored video of an alleged assault on an intern by a journalist in order to change the narrative from that day’s scandal du jour. Making an enemy of the free press seems to be one of the primary aims of this administration. By casting doubt on anything and everything, the President and his policies get an unlimited free pass. This tactic has been called “gaslighting” and it’s something that has been a truly destabilizing force in American politics over the last few years.
Regards,
Ted
https://thereformedbroker.com/2018/11/11/my-favorite-tax/

FYI:
Regards,Bloomberg Opinion columnist Barry Ritholtz interviews Ray Dalio, who is founder, co-chairman and co-chief investment officer of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates. Dalio has been a global macro investor for more than 45 years, having started Bridgewater out of a two-bedroom apartment in New York City in 1975. He is known for the practical yet unconventional theory of economics he spells out in his video series "How the Economic Machine Works," and is the author of the New York Times bestseller "Principles: Life and Work." His newest book, "Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises," was published this month.
Ted
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2018-11-08/ray-dalio-discusses-major-financial-crises-podcast-jo96qfgi

FYI: There seems to be no shortage of worries to keep a chief investment officer up at night. Yet, when asked for a quick take on the fixed-income market, Ken Taubes, 60, offers some consolation. “I actually think we’re getting back to a more normal economy, at least in the U.S.,” he says. “Even if the politics seem abnormal.”
The question that has for years been weighing on investors—how bond markets would react to rising interest rates—has largely been answered. “Most of the damage has been done, or it has been priced in,” says Taubes, who has managed the $5 billion Pioneer Bond fund (ticker: PIOBX) for the past 20 years. The fund has returned an average of 5.4% a year over the past decade, better than more than 80% of the Morningstar intermediate bond category; along with its peers and the benchmark, the fund is down 2.4% so far in 2018.
Regards,
Ted
M* Snapshot PIOBX:
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/PIOBX/quote.html
Lipper Snapshot PIOBX:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/piobx
PIOBX Is Rand #22 In The (IB) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/intermediate-term-bond/pioneer-bond-fund/piobx

I believe America will face a recession within 1-2 year and it wiil be severe one after 10 years of bull market. Based on previous experience EM and China will not be doing well at that time. It makes sense to postpone buying EM till after the recession.

@Catch22- Well, as a (half) Italian veteran, I must admit that I'm pretty confused by all of this. It was especially irksome when I had to go to work on Veteran's Day, while my totally non-veteran wife got the day off. Then again, after teaching for 35 years in the SF Public School "system", perhaps she deserves to be considered an honorary veteran.

Hi all, One more question. Sorry. At this point in my life, I am more worried about downside protection vs. upside. As a result, I own the following funds with large allocation to cash: FPA Crescent, FPA International value, IVA worldwide, Pinnacle value, Artisan international value and Fairholme (please don't laugh). Yes, I am (and have been) overweight value which has not paid off in the past 9 years (just an FYI, not a complaint). In addition to the above reason, I bought these funds as I turned cautious on the market when the S&P hit 1500 a while ago and Mr. Grantham (GMO) warned of a bubble (boy was Mr. Grantham WRONG/EARLY as the S&P went ahead and almost doubled). Here is my question. On the one hand these funds could let you sleep at night. However, that comes at a price (sometimes heavy price) as they all charge fees above 1% (1.44% in the case of pinnacle value). Sometimes I wonder if it is better to sit in cash instead. Although I am hoping that the managers can buy at the right price in the case of a downturn (no guarantees). Wondering what your thoughts are. In hindsight, now might be a good time to pile in these funds (not a few years ago).

Ouch! Parnassus has had huge distributions for two years in a row now.

No problem if in an IRA.

@Ted: Thanks much for all the post you have made here at MFO and FundAlarm. I found a good number of them to be very beneficial. Even though you are going to retire from being active in the markets I hope you will continue to post. Wishing you the very best in the coming years. Cordially, Old_Skeet