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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Mark Hulbert: The Stock Market Is Overdue For A One-Day 5% Or 10% Plunge
    FYI: Today is the anniversary of the 1987 stock-market crash, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 22.6%.
    Think again. On Oct. 19, 1987 — 31 years ago today — the Dow DJIA, +0.12% plunged 22.6%. It was the worst stock-market crash in U.S. history. An equivalent percentage drop today would cause the Dow to skid more than 5,700 points.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-is-overdue-for-a-one-day-5-or-10-plunge-2018-10-18/print
  • Invesco To Buy Oppenheimer Funds, Adding $246 Billion In Assets
    I haven't looked much at Invesco in the last couple of decades. That's when Invesco merged with AIM. That made it the 12th largest family. It's slid a bit since then, though it acquired Powershares (including QQQ) in 2006 and recently acquired Guggenheim.
    https://www.nytimes.com/1996/11/05/business/invesco-to-acquire-aim-for-1.6-billion.html
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/the--powershares--name-is-no-more-39023.html
    My recollection is that at the time Invesco had some curious sector funds, such as Invesco Leisure, Invesco Utilities, etc., as well as Invesco Dynamics (mid cap growth). AIM was a load family, focused on momentum growth (think AIM Constellation). Like American Century at the time, Invesco decided to go the load route.
    https://www.thestreet.com/story/10004594/1/no-load-no-way-says-invesco.html
    Gradually, Invesco merged away some of its quirky funds (while expanding Powershare non-vanilla ETFs), and did away with brand names AIM, Powershares, and Guggenheim.
    https://www.invesco.com/pdf/IFPA-FLY-13-E.pdf (for example)
    The only Invesco fund that caught my attention in recent years was LCEIX. Generally, the family seemed slightly pricey (though acceptable), with at best somewhat above average performance funds. Invesco was also involved in the 2003 market timing scandal.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/invesco-aim-settle-fund-trading-charges-for-450-mln
    Again, this is not a family I've followed much. More like bits and pieces than a cohesive picture.
  • Invesco To Buy Oppenheimer Funds, Adding $246 Billion In Assets
    Ouch - That one affects me. About 10% in Oppenheimer going back 25 years. A flawed outfit for sure, but I use (and like) some of their more exotic specialty finds for certain portfolio needs. My other houses steer clear, for the most part, of these niche funds. Currently I hold through Oppenheimer: a gold fund, an infrastructure fund, and a pretty good Alternatives fund. The last has had a rocky past, but current manager Michelle Borre, has done a nice job with it.
    How good a manager is Invesco? Have they proven themselves ethical? Committed to shareholders? Reasonable re fees? Easy to deal with? One nice thing about Oppenheimer has been very low minimums. This allows you to scale into a new fund gradually or spread out a relatively small stake among several different funds. From an operating cost perspective, I’d suspect Invesco will look to increasing those minimums.
    Is this likely to produce turnover among fund managers?
    Here’s the AUM for each of my 3 funds as Lipper lists them. I’m surprised the infrastructure fund (recently acquired from Macguarie) has such a small amount.
    OQGAX (global infrastructure) 23.86 M
    OPGSX (gold/pm) 856.4 M
    QVOPX (alternatives) 1.21 B
    As one of the last standing “active management” types, I fear this news in itself will precipitate additional exodus out of Oppenheimer and in the direction of passive funds, making it even more expensive for Oppenheimer to manage their shrinking base and harder to retain talent.
    Anybody here deal with Invesco? Thanks for any thoughts on how the buyout may affect existing investors.
  • Edward Lampert, The Hedge-Fund Star Who Bet on Sears, Is Unrepentant
    Maybe it will continue to exist in some form. i thought radioshack also filed bankruptcy right? I still see them.
    Filing chapter 11 gives Sears breathing room and protection for not being sued for not paying their creditors. They can restructure debt, which means people they owe money will likely get pennies on the dollar or nothing at all. Stock holders will get nothing. Bond holders may or may not get some payment. Assets or the entire company will either be bought by another company or, if they successfully come out of chapter 11 they can issue new stock for those believing Sears can some how reinvent itself minus the debt burden they once had.
    I would guess Sears management had the goal over the last couple years of setting itself up for chapter 11 bankruptcy as opposed to chapter 7 where there would be no chance of restructure. It may have looked like management didn't know what they were doing, but their goal likely was not to be a great merchandiser again, but to keep itself in existence under the protection of bankruptcy courts.
    Having seen all this take place with Kodak, the likelihood of reinventing itself after all this is slim to none. I wouldn't touch the new stock if issued at the end of this.
  • Artisan International Small Cap Fund to reopen as well as other changes (manager, name, etc...)
    Don't be afraid to trade the fund peepz. Maybe they opened it for same reason IVA opened its funds, to avoid selling and get tax hit. Distributions happen once a year. After it distributes this year I will be attempting to bottom fish.
    By the way I sold a bit of each of my Artisan holdings last weekend. I try not to do this every day. Think calmly every weekend. Once a staunch holder of Artisan, I have been an Artisan recycler for the past few years. I take profits and run.
  • ICI: U.S. Fund Investors Pull Most Cash From Bonds Since February
    Hi Guys & Gals: I'm thinking it important to have my portfolio invested based upon my risk tolerance. During times of a bull market run(s) I have found in the past I've let my equity allocation become to aggressive in prior years. However, after the 2008 market swoon I dialed my risk down and have continued to do so through the years and as I have aged. More recently, I decided I was still invested to aggressively by holding 50+% in equities and have decided to pull this on down to about 40% and raise my fixed income area up to about 40% along with cash to 20% which includes cd's, money market funds and US currency.
    It concerns me that the FOMC is raising interest rates at a pretty spiffy pace. It is currently easy to get a 3% yield on a 2 year cd and about 2.8% on an eighteen month cd. I've got some money market funds now paying better than a 2% yield (and its rising). I'm thinking fixed income and cash are looking pretty darn good as compared to a heavy equity allocation especially during these uncertain times of rising interest rates, trade debacles with rising tariffs, brexit, domestic and global politics, etc.
    I bet President Trump sure wishes he had left Janet in charge at the FOMC. I'm thinking she would have done a better job at looking at the big picture more objectively and would have moved more cautiously over the current FOMC chairman concerning the Fed's rising rate increase campaign. I've seen in the past where the Fed raised rates too far (and fast) until something broke. I just do not think they can move as fast as they are with their rate increase campaign without something in the economy breaking.
    Form my perspective if they kill the stock market they kill the goose that lays golden eggs.
  • Edward Lampert, The Hedge-Fund Star Who Bet on Sears, Is Unrepentant
    It seems that many of these type of bankruptcies happen after somebody takes over and assumes an impossible debt load, while taking money out of the company and selling off assets (Craftsman tools and Kenmore appliances, for instance).
    I don't know if this is the case with Sears; the environment is really tough for old-line retailers who depend upon physical stores. I hate to see Sears go; OTOH, I have not shopped in Sears for many years.
    David
  • Artisan International Small Cap Fund to reopen as well as other changes (manager, name, etc...)
    @expatsp,
    I've held the fund since late 2002 prior to its closure. Recent SEC filing indicated large distributions on the horizon. The fund had about 1B AUM at its peak, now down to $400M or so. Seeing both manager resigning from the fund with a new manager investment selection process was an indication it was time to move on prior to any distributions. Last several years distributions were anywhere between $1-$4 per share give or take some.
    I've made money on the fund, now looking at putting the proceeds into Mairs & Power Small Cap after distributions are paid.
  • The Sears Bankruptcy Is A Cautionary Tale For Hedge Fund Managers
    What was the point of:
    1) Leaving KMart’s stores outdated and in disrepair for years?
    2) Cheapening their merchandise to the point where no one would buy it?
    3) Operating mega-sized stores with a single cashier (adding new meaning to the term “slow”)?
    4) Allowing often vacant (of customers) but fully stocked stores to remain open near round the clock?
    5) Allowing KMarts to cannabalize sales of nearby Sears outlets by selling Sears branded merchadise (Craftsman and Kenmore) at lower prices and during more convenient hours?
    Geez - If you set out intentionally to ruin a business, you couldn’t do a better job.
    The interplay between EL’s hedge fund and Sears Holings is curious. I don’t pretend to understand it. But it appears suspect. Apparently, near the end, his hedge fund was trying unsuccessfully to buy off the valued Kenmore brand from the parent company.
    https://www.businessinsider.com/how-eddie-lampert-set-sears-up-to-fail-2017-5
  • Artisan International Small Cap Fund to reopen as well as other changes (manager, name, etc...)
    Glad I saw this posting, as I've had OSMYX since 2012, a remnant of my time with ML. I do tend to follow good managers when they change shops, but will wait til everything shakes out and most likely follow Kanovich to Artisan. I own another Artisan fund ARTGX and although been disappointed in recent years, its still done well compared to its peers in this space, value has lagged, and I have other global funds that have picked up the slack.
  • Artisan International Small Cap Fund to reopen as well as other changes (manager, name, etc...)
    I was one of the unfortunate few who invested in ARTWX and it was ugly. I end up transferring the remaining funds to ARTKX, which I had owned for years. The experience left me much less confident in Artisan Funds.
  • Your elementary-primer recommends for the not inspired or unknowing, into the world of investing
    @Catch22,
    Thought I’d give your synopsis a bump to the Discussions + side of the board where it may receive more notice. Not qualified to address your questions as you’ve stated them, but would like to score myself on each for the value of self-introspection.
    A budget and spending habits / Grade A (93%) Downright compulsive re yearly budgeting. A weakness for splurging on upgraded air travel & accommodations.
    Very basic overview of how the economy functions / Grade C (73%) - Geez, Does anybody really understand it? I can read three convincing depictions by three highly knowledgeable “authorities” and come away with three different views. Brings to mind the old line about “the one-armed economist”.
    Overview of investment types/descriptions / Grade B- (80%)
    I know quite a bit about mutual funds, having owned such for near 50 years - but little of stocks, bonds or ETFs and things like puts and calls - all outside my experience base.
    The reasons for investing in a 401k/403b/Traditional or Roth IRA's / Grade A (95%) The reasons are pretty compelling.
  • US Deficit: $1.5 Billion In Daily Interest
    FYI: Here is a number for your dinner conversation tonight: Did you know that the US government last year on average paid $1.5bn each day in interest payments, and this is rising toward $2bn per day over the coming years, see chart below. And this number could rise further as interest rates go up because of an overheating economy, more Treasury supply, and lack of demand for US fixed income from abroad because of higher hedging costs. These forces pushing US rates higher did not disappear yesterday.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://ritholtz.com/2018/10/us-deficit-1-5-billion-in-daily-interest/
  • Your elementary-primer recommends for the not inspired or unknowing, into the world of investing
    I'm making a list of books and web sites to promote towards the "why in hell would I want to be an investor" folks I know.
    The target age range is mostly 25-50 years old, BUT needs to include the young ones, too. Some of the folks who will receive information from me are retired, but may pass along the information to their adult children and hopefully to the grand children. The could be named, "Investing for the unaware or the afraid"
    The criteria, somewhat; by areas:
    As an example, I can't be taking these folks into a 3rd year session of learning French; as they have not yet had the basics from beginning French, at day one. I need to keep this on the simple side in the beginning to maintain their interest. Yes, investing is a learning curve and an ongoing study; but I don't want them to feel overwhelmed and quit the journey. I anticipate not much better than a 10% survival rate, sadly.............
    --- A budget and spending habits
    --- Very basic overview of how the economy functions
    --- Overview of investment types/descriptions, although the direction would tend towards mutual funds; as this would be the most common form available for most
    --- The reasons for investing in a 401k/403b/Traditional or Roth IRA's
    NOTE: Two items that I already have in place, is Ray Dalio, "How the economic machine works" (free, 31 minutes, Youtube); and "The millionaire next door" (spending habits, budgeting)......book.
    I have not yet reviewed Youtube again; but there are indeed very useful pieces there; as well as Khan Academy.
    I'm leaning towards online writes and video how-to to obtain the best results and temptation to read/watch and become involved by the folks I'll be contacting.
    Thank you in advance, for more guidance towards meaningful sites/books at the elementary level.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • The Sears Bankruptcy Is A Cautionary Tale For Hedge Fund Managers
    FYI: Sears Holdings Corp . filed for bankruptcy early on Monday morning, the culmination of a years-long decline of the American retail institution, providing another example as to why hedge fund managers should steer clear of retail.
    Sears (ticker: SHLD) sought Chapter 11 protection and announced a deal with its lenders that will let it keep many stores open and continue paying vendors and employees. Its $1.8 billion debtor-in-possession asset-based credit facility gave it some $300 million more than it had before filing.
    Bankruptcy enabled it to “reject leases” on about 220 store locations, almost all of which are “dark stores” not open to shopper traffic where Sears has already shut operations. Sears will start “going out of business sales” at another 142 unprofitable stores, which will close by year-end. It had already announced intention to close 46 stores by November. The 125-year-old company operates about 700 Sears and Kmart stores, and employs about 70,000 people.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/sears-bankruptcya-cautionary-talefor-hedge-fund-managers-1539619499?mod=hp_DAY_2
  • PCI and PDI's ER up
    Last several weeks, PCI was traded at a slight premium. Cerrtainly nowhere near the double digit discount it enjoyed several years ago.
  • Here's what to hide out if market countinue to tumble
    This week is a repeat of the decline in late January this year, exception that the situation is worse with higher interest rates, tariffs, and geopolitical risks. CDs, 2-years Treasury and (even) money market are more attractive options.