"Lagging." Grinning, here. Is that meant to reassure? Or admit to the fact that our debt burden has been astronomical for MANY years? So, we're totally screwed.

Nice chart @bee / Pretty bubbles. I didn’t realize Franklin is so high. Must be their legacy OEFs. Their etfs are quite reasonable. One good one I’ve held before is LVHI which continues to ”shoot the lights out.” I track it expecting it to falter - but it hasn’t.
I wonder if fees become less significant with age? Yes, at 35 years of age with 30 years until one begins pulling IRA distributions a tenth or quarter of a point is a big deal due to the long term compounding. No argument. But for a 75 or 80 year old picking a fund (often hybrid types designed to hedge risk) I’m not so sure fees are a big deal. OTHO if that 75 year old is investing only in short term credit or cash, I suppose a quarter point is still a big deal.

Anent the fantasy of US "reindustrialization," Krugman today:
The economy changes over time, and so do the industries in which people work. A century and a half ago, despite rising industry, America was still largely a nation of farmers; today hardly any of us work on the land:
Oh, and many, possibly a majority of farm workers are foreign-born, with many of them undocumented.
You don’t hear a lot of nostalgia for the days when agriculture dominated employment, although some politicians still portray rural areas and small towns as the “real America.” (If you ask me, Queens, New York comes a lot closer to being who we are now.)
There is, however, a lot of nostalgia for the 1950s and 1960s, when more than a quarter of U.S. workers were employed in manufacturing. Income inequality was much lower in that era; many blue-collar workers considered themselves middle-class. And there’s a widespread narrative that
(a) attributes those good times for workers to the availability of well-paid jobs in manufacturing, and
(b) attributes the relative decline of manufacturing to outsourcing and trade deficits.
But is this narrative right? It’s a simple, compelling story, but as I tried to explain to Clinton all those years ago, the math doesn’t work. To preview the conclusions: Even if we could somehow eliminate our trade deficit (which Trump’s tariffs won’t do, but that’s another story), America wouldn’t reindustrialize — our manufacturing sector would be slightly bigger, but nothing like what it used to be. And any wage gains for ordinary workers would be trivial at best. ...

Thanks @yogibearbull. Nuveen’s “CEF Connect” site does display not only the chart view but also the actual gain / loss for NAV and price in table form. 20 years appears to be the max allowed. I just needed to dig deeper. . M*’s chart wouldn’t work when I tried it. Refused to lock in both start and end dates selected.
We are fortunate to have participated in the 07-09 financial disaster - in the sense a lot can be learned from the experience. 17-18 consecutive “down” months doesn’t sound like a long time until you’re experiencing it.

Make if Off topic, but a lot of this has significant investment implications.
Methinks there should be more facts of the Middle East trip, for one. Barron's reports today that Trump canceled all of the in place limitations on those countries transferring to China or facilitating China's use of the high end NVDA chips. Any connection to Patel, Wise and Bondy previous lobbying fro Middle Eastern nations? Why does this or the other severe cuts to cyber security and national security staff and funding make any sense?
A Chinese firm with no revenue linked to Tik-Tok somehow bought $300 million of Trump's coin. If this is not a bribe, I don't know what is.
Moody's just cut USA credit rating.
The facts about the cuts to cancer, Alzheimer's and other biomedical research are undeniable, and will have significant negative implications on USA biotech and health companies and on your and your family's health.
https://www.science.org/content/article/nih-insiders-trump-dismantling-and-destroying-everything#
30% of research grants have been cut, in some cases many more. These are not "DEI" grants as MAGA claims. These are basic research into the mechanism of diseases and cures and into individual susceptibilities.
RFK lies in public claiming " no working scientist" was fired when the heads of at least four Research Institutes were terminated, along with hundreds of scientific personnel.
https://www.science.org/content/article/trump-proposes-massive-nih-budget-cut-and-reorganization
The 2026 Trump budget proposal is seeking to cut $33.3 billion in discretionary funding for HHS, representing a 26.2 percent reduction compared to the fiscal 2025 budget.
This includes a $3.6 billion reduction in discretionary funding for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), an $18 billion reduction ( 37 to 45% ) for the National Institutes of Health (NIH).
Never before have the major Government health institutions been lead by people (even if they have an MD) who have never seen a patient and who do not have medical licenses, much less people who not only know nothing about science and medicine and research but who endorse views and beliefs about science and medicine that have not been accepted since the 18th century or earlier.
While some on this board may think research funding is a spigot that can be turned on easily, I know better, having spent my career in medical practice and research. I have sat on NIH review boards determining which grants get funded. These research labs have taken years and decades to put together, with dozens of specialized staff. They have made the US the envy of the world in biomedical research and medical treatments.
No more. Many of our best people are leaving for Canada, Ireland, UK and Europe where they are assured the funds they need will be there.

At Observant1. I took note of the fact that D&C Global has out performed their domestic bond fund DODIX for all periods going back ten years.

Over the past several months, we’ve seen hundreds—if not thousands—of “on-fire” opinions from posters, pundits, and even Nobel Prize-winning economists. Many insisted these issues were directly tied to the markets.
Among the loudest claims:
• The economy is in shambles.
• Inflation is going to destroy us.
• The stock market is doomed.
• Tariffs will be disastrous for consumers and the markets.
• The southern border can’t be secured, and violent criminals can’t be arrested.
• Boeing is finished.
• Anything going wrong in the U.S. is Trump’s fault.
The Reality:
• The S&P 500 is up—positive performance for the year.
• The economy is stable. Nothing major has collapsed.
• Inflation has declined from 3% to 2.3%. Employment remains solid.
• The southern border is more secure than it has been in years, and many violent criminals have been apprehended.
• U.S. businesses have been and continue accelerating their shift away from China.
• Tariffs, as any reasonable observer would note, were a bargaining chip. The U.K. signed a deal. Others are negotiating. If India signs, it will be a significant milestone. The EU is finally engaging seriously. In the next several months you will see more. Any agreement where the US gets a better deal is a win. It doesn’t matter if it’s 5%, 10% or more. The US is like Amazon or Apple; you pay to sell your merchandise or software.
• China remains a complex challenge, but no one expected a quick fix. Even if an agreement came, skepticism would still be warranted. The broader focus is shifting global trade relationships while collaborating with others.
• The U.S. has seen a surge of private and foreign investment that are fueling job growth, innovation, and opportunity across every corner of the country https://www.whitehouse.gov/investments/
• The Middle East trip was a huge success, more business, and hopefully regional realignment is underway.
• The US brokered a ceasefire fire between India and Pakistan.
• Boeing has secured billions in new business.
• A deal was signed with Ukraine for access to minerals, hydrocarbons, and infrastructure development.
What to Expect from the Left:
• Denial of progress.
• Minimization of any agreement.
• Distractions, instead of cooperation on long-standing shared priorities.
• Focusing on trivial issues while ignoring major developments.
For example, the outrage over Jamal Khashoggi’s killing becomes the headline—while major diplomatic breakthroughs in the Middle East go ignored. Uniting the region against Iran, China, and Russia; increasing U.S. business opportunities; lowering oil prices; and cutting off funds to terrorism and war—those are significant outcomes.
Let’s not forget:
• Who brokered the Abraham Accords?
• Who dismantled ISIS?
The “on-fire” posts will likely continue for years.
The conclusions:
* We should go back and discuss investments.
* Politics and worries don’t have a high correlation to our portfolios and why we should disregard them.
* Your political side can’t be always right, and the other side can’t be always evil and wrong. Why the nonstop 110% on-fire outrage ranting and name-calling? People lose the ability to tell what’s truly serious.

16 May, 2025. Dani Burger is in.
Consumer sentiment at 2nd-lowest level on record. Univ. Michigan survey. Uncertainty is the word, these days. Tony Rodriguez (Nuveen) and Robt. Tipp (PGIM.) Inflation fear is a bit more "legitimate" than the Consumer Sentiment survey, because the UM survey mostly missed the latest info re: trade deal with China. Just a calendar matter, even though the UM survey is a routine institution, going back years and years. Still, a consumer slowdown will negatively affect the economy, though not to the point of a recession. 10-year rate probably around 4.25% by year-end. 30-year maybe at 5%. that would be attractive to would-be buyers.
...Pressure in budget discussions re: federal debt. (And Moody's just DOWNGRADED U.S. debt!) Tipp thinks that HY bonds will not disappoint, with not too much volatility, looking back from 10 years hence. ...Burger addressed the distinction between irresponsible deficits vs. stimulus that could serve its purpose without driving up inflation: Tipp responded with "all things are relative. Look at the Big Picture, compared to France, elsewhere, the EU. We could raise taxes more easily than they could, "if need be." ("If need be???" Are you on drugs?????). "Everyone in the Developed Market club is 100% debt to GDP these days." (I guess the value of the dollar doesn't matter to Tipp very much?)
CREDIT ISSUANCES: Europe, busiest week since January. McDonald's, Pfizer Yankee Bonds. Total, YTD reverse Yankee Bonds out of Europe = 82B euros.
UPS, US Bank, Woodside, SocGen and Truist. Above $40B for 2 weeks running.
JUNK: Kohl's, Carnival.
Credit spreads are expected to remain tight. Amanda Lyman and Winnie Cisar. LYMAN: optimism in the midst of the uncertainty. CISAR: April volatility was short-lived.
Spreads are wider than at the start of the year. No way to time the Market, best to make sure you're not under-invested. We've been experiencing 18 months of momentum. But let's see what happens after the 90-day countdown to the end of suspended tariffs. It's Ok to "selectively" move down in credit quality. Liquidity still looks healthy. LYNAM: all-in yield is still attractive.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-05-16/bloomberg-real-yield-05-16-2025-video

The Week in Charts (05/16/25)
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:53 Topics
01:52 Both Sides Blinked
04:58 One of the Greatest Comebacks in Market History
08:25 What a Difference a Month Makes
12:49 Lowest Inflation in 4 Years
19:49 Watch What They Do, Not What They Say
26:26 Healthcare Sector Woes
30:55 The New/Existing Home Divide
35:00 Rising Real Wages
Video
Blog

Got to get a kick out of this “all bark and NO bite”.
Asian Leaders See Right Through Trump’s Tariff Man Act

President Donald Trump just taught a masterclass in how to lose a trade war. His spectacular retreat on China tariffs in Geneva this week—for very little in return—has officials across Asia sighing with relief.
Trump’s slashing import taxes on China from 145% to 30% increases the odds Asia’s biggest economy will achieve its 5% growth target this year. That will be a boon for growth and markets across the region. And other Asian governments now have a blueprint on how to slow-walk Trump’s bilateral trade deal process and avoid giving away the store to America’s most mercantilist leader in 125 years.
A caveat: Trump won’t be happy to read the many headlines about him caving in Geneva, nor will he be pleased to learn China isn’t about to throw big concessions his way. This unflattering news cycle could see the “Tariff Man” return to negotiating tables with a vengeance.

https://apple.news/AATAs-ngPRjqT835j3HvWeQ

UBS is shutting its robo-advisor.
In 2024, JP Morgan shut its digital-only robo-advisor, and Goldman Sachs shut Marcus Invest (robo accounts were sold to Betterment).
While Rohinhood is getting into robo-advising.
More popular are hybrid robo-advisors that add human intermediaries.
Big players are Vanguard, Schwab, Fidelity, Betterment, Wealthfront (few years ago, UBS almost bought it, but now UBS quits this business), etc.
Most buyers of robo-advisors may be fine with traditional allocation funds or TDFs (with glide-paths).
https://www.barrons.com/advisor/articles/ubs-to-close-robo-advisor-45ba41cb?mod=RTA

Katie Stockton?
A month ago she said "Investors should use the relief rally to reduce exposure, says Fairlead’s Katie Stockton"
Watch it at https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/04/17/investors-should-use-the-relief-rally-to-reduce-exposure-says-fairleads-katie-stockton.html
Just for info, Katie Stockton has been managing a "great" fund, called TACK for over 3 years with a pretty bad performance. See the chart https://schrts.co/ZSnmTnxR
For 3 years both TACK and PRWCX have similar SD about 11, but PRWCX made 90% more (almost double) 19.3% vs 36.6%.
So, what happened if you sold a month ago? you missed about 10% of the SP500

Well stated @a2z
Gambling is a bad habit and very addictive. Over time I’ve gotten reasonably good at keeping myself on a short leash in that and several other respects. :)
As far as sitting tight on savings … when I replace a window in my home identical to the one I paid $400 for 6 years ago and from the same dealer and now pay $720 for it - and with a much longer shipping time (6 weeks vs 3 days) it makes me want to reach a little for return. Each to his own.

That article is from 1/24/2025. (Wall Street underestimating)

Good catch. My goof. However I listened to Ives last evening on Bloomberg repeating the same belief. comment. If I can dig up a more timely citation I’ll

revise my original comment. Thanks @gman57.

It happens a lot, I try and triple check because I sometimes see something and go wow that's interesting not realizing it's a few years old. They don't even put dates on some articles.

” Bear markets do not go straight down. They are punctuated with ‘rip-your-face-off’ rallies based on big headlines, extreme investor sentiment, and experience that buying the dip usually pays off."

Absolutely correct. Thanks for posting. I’m glad I don’t try to time markets. I have a model portfolio allocation and stay with the plan. Add or lighten up on occasion. Rebalance often.
I’ll say one person tried to dissuade me from investing back in early April based on geopolitical issues. I’m very happy to have ignored the well intentioned advice and to have been buying back then rather than selling. But I’m a gambler at heart.
I suspect @a2z would agree with me that investors need a plan. And that it’s important to avoid subjecting one’s life savings to knee-jerk emotional decisions. I read Bill Fleckenstein daily as a long time subscriber (10+ years) and mostly agree with his long held views on the major U.S. stock indexes. I won’t try to characterize those views here, but a web search should pull them up if anybody cares. So a greedy bleary-eyed overly optimistic stock “bull” I definitely am not. :)

Dan Ives (Webush Securities) remains bullish on tech.
In summary:
- in January 2025 Ives forecast a 25% gain for tech stocks in the year.
- In late March / early April he turned bearish calling Trump’s tariff war a “disaster” for the sector.
- Last week after the tariff truce with China, Ives again turned very bullish on the sector.
Here’s Ives on Bloomberg last week.:

Disclosure: In this thread I’ve tried to share some positive takes on the markets in hopes it adds to our broad perspective. None of this is not intended as investment advice. I do not invest in technology stocks or funds due to my age / personal circumstance. I haven’t for many years. Nor do invest in any SPX index funds. Never have. But watching the S&P may still shed light on the overall market.

I love the May issue. It's exactly how I have been invested for 25 years. It has been all about great risk/reward funds for the current market.
Both of the articles below were excellent
My Investment Strategy For 2025
Building a chaos-resistant.
You can have just own 2 funds like PRWCX+FPACX for decades. These 2 flexible funds/managers can do it all; just enjoy the ride.
As someone who have used mostly bond OEFs, investor should consider one of Sherman funds from less volatility to more (RPHIX,CBLDX,RSIIX).
There is a another excellent bond fund that hardly mentioned, APDPX. See (link).
This Artisan Global Unconstrained bond fund has MFO risk=1 and MFO rating=5. This fund has an amazing 3 year performance of 9% + SD=2.8 annually

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FYI, there is a very informative article by David Pierson about our contentious trade dispute with China that appeared in yesterday's NY Times. Here are some excerpts:
"Xi Jinping has been preparing for this moment for years.
In April 2020, long before President Trump launched a trade war that would shake the global economy, China’s top leader held a meeting with senior Communist Party officials and laid out his vision for turning the tables on the United States in a confrontation.
Tensions between his government and the first Trump administration had been simmering over an earlier round of tariffs and technology restrictions. Things got worse after the emergence of Covid, which ground global trade to a halt and exposed how much the United States, and the rest of the world, needed China for everything from surgical masks to pain medicines.
Faced with Washington’s concerns about the trade imbalance, China could have opened its economy to more foreign companies, as it had pledged to do decades ago. It could have bought more American airplanes, crude oil and soybeans, as its officials had promised Mr. Trump during trade talks. It could have stopped subsidizing factories and state-owned companies that made steel and solar panels so cheaply that many American manufacturers went out of business.
Instead, Mr. Xi chose an aggressive course of action.
Chinese leaders must “tighten international production chains’ dependence on our country, forming a powerful capacity to counter and deter foreign parties from artificially disrupting supplies” to China, Mr. Xi said in his speech to the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission in 2020.
Put simply: China should dominate supplies of things the world needs, to make its adversaries think twice about using tariffs or trying to cut China off.
Mr. Xi has ramped up exports and deepened China’s position as the world’s leading base for manufacturing, in part by directing the state-controlled commercial banking system to lend an extra $2 trillion to industrial borrowers over the past four years, according to data from China’s central bank. He has also introduced new weapons of economic warfare to the country’s arsenal: export controls, antimonopoly laws and blacklists for hitting back at American companies.
So when the current Trump administration slapped huge tariffs on Chinese goods, China was able to go on the offensive. Besides retaliating with its own taxes, it imposed export restrictions on a wide range of critical minerals and magnets, the global supply of which China had cornered. Such minerals are essential for assembling everything from cars and drones to robots and missiles.
“It’s about flipping the leverage so that the world is reliant on China, and China is reliant on no one. It is a reversal of what Xi has been so irritated about, which is that China was so dependent on the West,” said Kirsten Asdal, a former intelligence adviser at the U.S. Department of Defense who now heads a China-focused consultancy firm, Asdal Advisory.
China still relies on the West for many advanced technologies like high-end semiconductors and aircraft engines. But its willingness to weaponize the supply chain may be one of the starkest examples of how Mr. Xi is redefining China’s relationship with the world and challenging the supremacy of the United States like no Chinese leader before him.
“China will use any and all tools at its disposal to cause pain and impose costs on the U.S. and any country that aligns with America,” said Evan Medeiros, a professor of Asian studies at Georgetown University who was an Asia adviser to President Barack Obama.
“The entire world,” Mr. Medeiros continued, “is about to learn the answer to a very important question: how reliant are we on trade with China and how much is it worth to us?”
Mr. Xi has said for years that the United States is bent on thwarting China’s rise, and the trade war appears to have validated his warnings."