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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • income for seniors
    I spent the last 5 years as a caregiver for my elderly parent. Things happen in steps as we age so prepare for these "steps" by trying to be one step ahead of the next "step". Most of these steps move in the opposite direction of what we are use to.
    Income is a misnomer at this age (85 & older) because, as we age, less and less of our income is spent on maintaining a lifestyle and more is spent on maintaining a life.
    A decision should be made on where this 85 year old will reside for their next 5-10-15 years. If the hope and desire is to stay at home (somewhat independently) realize that this can change instantly..a car crash, a fall, a major illness and this person will be unsafe living alone. Determine who (loved ones or community services or elderly care agencies) will dovetail with this independent living arrangement...often it is all three.
    Outside of these personal resources (low six figure assets), what other resources will this 85 year old also have access to? This could be a VA Aid & Attendance benefit, community heating allowances, renters rebates, SS waivers (on premiums), subsidies for the costs of home care, family leave benefits for family members, Home modification loans or grants, and many many more that would be unique to where you live and how you qualify. Usually qualifying means being below an income and an asset threshold. Come up with a spend down plan for these assets to maximize the time that this elderly person can live independently.
    Care changes as the elderly person's medical need increase. Spend down or transfer of assets need to occurred 5 years prior to medicaid becoming available for helping pay for LT care. I just completed this process with my elderly mom and it was an honor, a privileged and the hardest damn thing you'd ever want to do (mostly) alone.
    Remember that care facility costs for LT care can be substantial...$4-7K / month is not uncommon.
  • Posting Links of no informative value
    They just seemed to be having their way from the getgo, mostly; of course I know it was close. But not as much as it looked. Pats could not stop the run, either JA or Blount, and JA was amazing. Eagles' D kept Pats run stifled, for its part. Most of the Pats afterward said as much, about not being to get going and get their typical game going, if you watched the post interviews (maybe available chiefly in Boston area). Discouraging to sit through, but good on Philly.
    Neither team had a good defense, with Brady torching the Eagles for more than 500 yards passing with 3 TDs. The game really hinged on just a couple plays at the end. The Eagles eating up the clock in the 4th with that extended drive (terrible defense by NE) and Brady getting strip sacked near the end. Up to that point, the outcome was in question. Philly made a few more plays than NE. The Pats defense was about as bad as I've seen from that team in many years.
  • David Snowball's February Commentary Is Now Available
    Leuthold (usually bearish [edited], iirc) contrasts interestingly with this from Marvin Schwartz of NB; really makes you want to check his history:
    \\ For 20 years, the average price/earnings ratio has been 19.3. If you go back 50 years, it’s 15.6 times. In periods where inflation grew 3% or less—which is 22 of the past 50 years—the P/E of the market was 19.7. Now, at 17 for 2019 and 15.9 for 2020, P/Es don’t look particularly stretched.
  • It Feels 'A Bit Like 2006' For Stocks And The Economy. That Should Scare Us.
    I am not concerned if its 2006 as it gives me a year to sell. While Ted is correct that 2006 was followed by 2008 most of us if asked would say 2006 was followed by 2007
    By the way after 9 up years selling may generate lots of capital gains so selling some this year may not be wrong. We on this site all know about the bulls,the bears and the pigs.
  • Q&A With Scott Minerd, CIO, Guggenheim Partners: "The Bull Market’s Days Are Numbered"
    @Bee, good one. Always enjoy your posts. Have a sister who moved from NJ to Florida a few years back. Still have a brother in law in Summit, both retired. One of the worst towns for taxes.
  • Here Is Another -- Totally Legitimate -- Way To Shield Money From Taxes
    FYI: I am jealous.
    Any time you can protect your money from the tax man, I want in.
    George Papadopoulos is 50 years old and has a tax-free stash to cover health care expenses that is close to $100,000 and growing. It will continue to grow for the rest of his life just like an Individual Retirement Account.
    “It’s a nice bucket of totally tax-free money,” the wealth manager from Novi, Mich., said.
    The account is known as a Health Savings account, a financial device that is growing in popularity as the Baby Boomer generation chews through its golden years and their attendant health issues.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/get-there/wp/2018/02/01/here-is-another-totally-legitimate-way-to-shield-money-from-taxes/?utm_term=.080c24bc89a3
  • Q&A With Scott Minerd, CIO, Guggenheim Partners: "The Bull Market’s Days Are Numbered"
    Just a little math and a little music...To qualify for a $800K mortgage in any of these high tax communities requires an pretty sizeable income...your call.
    Let say this process of home "loanership" is a 30 year adventure...a decent career for you and a time spread for all your kids to get out on their own. Half of us will have divorced and need additional resources to somehow make two households work.
    In Milburn, a $1M home will require a $200K down payment to avoid PMI...good luck with that as you are just out of college with $200K in student loan debt. An $800K mortgage (P&I @ 4% for 30 yrs) will run you about $3800/ month. Add almost $2K/M for taxes and $200/M for insurance and as a "home loaner' you will need $6K/month or $72K/YR to hang your hat. I have not mentioned the lifestyle costs nor the $250K/kid costs you will encounter...I did mention the likelihood of divorce.
    Over 30 years the cumulative cost of property taxes alone will equal or exceed the $800k mortgage. So the banks gets paid...the city gets paid...the ex gets paid... the dentist gets paid...the utilities get paid...you get screwed.
    You get to wake up everyday and try to prove to your boss that you are worthy of this rat race salary so you have the privilege of getting clipped to cover all these costs plus the ongoing cost of maintaining the properties (after the divorce your property is a little smaller and a little outside of Milburn, but still costly) and other monthly bills.
    Welcome...Home Sweat Home...here's to a simpler time that we threw away:

  • Q&A With Scott Minerd, CIO, Guggenheim Partners: "The Bull Market’s Days Are Numbered"
    I got to read the whole article through google, this google search may or may not work for you.
    You're right that the cost of lending just got lower for high tax states. He doesn't discuss this. What he says is that Connecticut and NJ are losing their tax base as high income earners flee (at least in NJ this has been happening for some years thanks to NJ's rising property taxes).
    The loss of SaLT deductions, effectively hiking taxes for these states, accelerates the trend. This in turn lowers property values (reducing state & local revenue) and income tax revenue, putting bond ratings at risk. For good measure, he threw in Illinois.
    Completely separate, he's predicting a GDP growth of 2.5%, up from 2%, due to companies being able to immediately write off of capital expenditures (instead of amortizing).
  • Ric Edelman Chastises Vanguard CEO, Wall Street Execs For Rejecting Bitcoin
    It might have helped had PennyBonds continued the quote with the next line from Edelman:
    "They are in “denial” because they don’t understand the technology, Edelman said."
    A company that doesn't understand a technology (at least its capabilities and limitations), doesn't embrace it as a user, let alone as an investor. It sounds like Edleman doesn't comprehend Vanguard's thinking.
    It's not because Vanguard doesn't appreciate the technology that it has no interest in one of its applications.
    I'm sure Vanguard understands internet protocols, yet it never offered an internet fund. BTW, how did those funds turn out?
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/former-internet-fund-stars-10-years-after-the-bust-2010-03-08
  • Ric Edelman Chastises Vanguard CEO, Wall Street Execs For Rejecting Bitcoin
    Blockchain is not the same as Bitcoin. The reference to Vanguard is about Blockchain. If my vague understanding is correct, Blockchain is a technology or platform that the cryptocurrency product "Bit coin" uses.
    I also believe cryptocurrency is the future, but that doesn't mean Bit coin is the choice product or the only product for cryptoconcurrency in the future. I think there will be many iterations. But on the other hand maybe since they were first they will be the gold standard of crypto. That is the investment gamble.
    Hey, who the hell would have guessed something called a cell phone would rule the world 30 years ago? And when it started out, didn't everyone drive up Motorola stock, not Apple?
  • Barry Ritholtz: The Odds Of Fixing U.S. Infrastructure Just Got Better
    "Despite the tough politics, 26 states have raised taxes on motor fuels in the past four years."
    http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2017/07/26/reluctant-states-raise-gas-taxes-to-repair-roads (July 26, 2017)
    Apparently people in most states have already risen up. Though not high enough.
    Not sure what the aforementioned MN hike is. Pew graphic (see below) shows MN increase around 2012 (hard to get an exact year from a visual graph). That's consistent with this state of Minnesota page, showing the last hike in 2012 (from a law passed in 2008).
    MOTOR FUEL TAX RATES PER GALLON: MINNESOTA
    http://www.dot.state.mn.us/about/pdfs/historychart.pdf
    image
  • PRHSX: Is it time to trim holdings?
    New York is another state that provides three years of COBRA-type coverage.
    ISTM that people are complaining about the high cost of medical coverage (as reflected in insurance costs). Whether group coverage (COBRA) or individual coverage (exchange), they'd rather have someone else pay for it.
    COBRA charges virtually the same as what your employer is paying for the insurance (only a 2% surcharge is allowed for the first 18 months; states do vary by what they allow in the second 18 months). This is not gouging - you're paying the real cost.
    Even when your employer pays for it, you're still paying indirectly. When companies hire someone, they budget loaded (all in) costs, including pay, 401k match, health insurance, desk space, etc. They don't care how that's split. More for insurance, less for pay.
    COBRA just gives you a window into what your insurance is costing you.
  • Barry Ritholtz: The Odds Of Fixing U.S. Infrastructure Just Got Better
    Good Luck with this. If I recall, Trump suggests $1.5 trillion for infrastructure, with $200 billion from Federal "sources" and remainder from state, local sources, as well as "private".
    State and local..........okay, and where is this money arriving from.....?
    A few years ago, Michigan had a proposal regarding gas tax to help rebuild Michigan roads. I know several hard core Republican, tax paying citizens who posted to their Facebook pages during this period, something to the effect of "Just say NO to higher taxes to repair the roads." I had, by chance; an opportunity to ask 2 of these folks "where did they expect these monies to arrive from to maintain/improve the roads?" Generally, they expected the monies to be appropriated from some other spending unit in the state budget. OK.
    As to the ability of local governments to help fund infrastructure costs, another good luck.
    Thousands of communities are already part of the FEMA, Safer Grant programs to help fund local police and fire units. Not enough local revenue, yes? I read an online report yesterday about one large community in Michigan closing a fire station and reducing staff by 1/3, as their 3rd Safer grant had been denied.
    Reminds me of the "shovel ready" crap from Obama/Biden, too.
    And the beat goes on.....
  • PRHSX: Is it time to trim holdings?
    FRA= full retirement age. Eagerly waiting. Could have done at 62, but did not want to get into ACA.
    Medicare is available at age 65. No need to wait for FRA to avoid individual health insurance. COBRA would let you back up to 63.5, and some states (e.g. Cal-COBRA) provide COBRA-type coverage for three years. That could back you up all the way to 62.
  • PRHSX: Is it time to trim holdings?
    FRA= full retirement age. Eagerly waiting. Could have done at 62, but did not want to get into ACA. No way I am going to France. Not even getting out of Chicago...like it.
    PRHSX 9.8% is in taxable (direct at TRP=7.7% since 2010 or so) and traditional IRA( 2.1% at vanguard since 3 years just before closing of fund). Actually instead of getting dividend, and paying regular tax, planning to use long term cap gains++soc security for the monthly expenses.
  • Trump Stock Rally Second Only To FDR
    @Maurice
    And by the way FDR oversaw the two worst Depressions in the last 100 years.
    What sort of nonsense are you spewing?
    The Great Depression began in 1929 under Herbert Hoover, a pro-business, low-tax, anti-New Deal/anti-"socialist" Republican. Here is GDP Growth under Hoover from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis:
    1930
    -8.5%
    1931
    -6.4%
    1932
    -12.9%
    Roosevelt was president from March 1933 through April 1945. The first part of the New Deal was passed midway through 1933. Here is GDP growth during Roosevelt's presidency:
    1933
    -1.3%
    1934
    +10.8%
    1935
    +8.9%
    1936
    +12.9%
    1937
    +5.1%
    1938
    -3.3%
    1939
    +8.0
    1940
    +8.8%
    1941
    +17.7
    1942
    +18.9%
    1943
    +17.0%
    1944
    +8.0%
    1945
    -1.0%
    Note that the U.S. didn't enter the war till the end of 1941, and the war itself was another form of government spending, i.e., "socialist" fiscal stimulus to build weapons and hire massive amounts of soldiers.
    Also, note that the one significant GDP downturn during Roosevelt's presidency occurred in 1938 after Roosevelt was pressured by a newly-elected Republican Congress to balance the budget and curb government spending, which he did.
  • FMC Strategic Value Fund liquidation
    @MFO Members: Way to go, very consistent, 100 percentile YTD-15 Years.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • FMC Strategic Value Fund liquidation
    As previously noted on this board, FMSVX is being liquidated next month.
    I invested some money in this small cap value fund some years ago, probably because I read some positive comments here. It has been run by First Manhattan Co and I don't think it even had a ticker symbol for awhile. I was enchanted by the idea that this New York investment firm was running a small fund for its clients and whomever else wanted to join in.
    Surely they knew what they were doing and things would go well.
    They did for a little while.
    I plead guilty to not paying attention to how it has done lately: but it's only up 1.74% for the last year, - 2.65% for the last three years and +3.16% for the past five years. I would have thought those numbers impossible in the booming market we've seen.
    The fund made a large cap gains distribution in December, is making another one now (payable Feb 6, who knows how much??) and is maintaining a CONSTANT SHARE PRICE of $20.
    I called today to see how the liquidation process works. I could cash in now (at 20), or wait until the mid-February final demise. One factor in the final distribution amount is the cost of carrying out the execution.
    But there's no rational basis to make a decision! How can a fund which holds equities maintain a constant price?
    Unless it's gone to all cash.
    In which case they should tell me.
    It really seems strange to distribute cap gains right before a liquidation.
    Lesson to be learned -- PAY ATTENTION to your holdings.
    I'll not buy anything again which is so far under the radar that information is hard to find.
    At least I think I made a little profit on it.
    David