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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Are Actively Managed Mutual Funds Fading Away?
    FYI: Passive index fund investing is popular for a singular reason. In most cases, passive index fund investment returns surpass those of active fund managers.
    John Bogle and his Vanguard brokerage firm launched the first S&P 500 index fund in 1977 with the idea that if costs were slashed, a simple fund that mirrored the S&P 500 had a chance to return close to 9 percent annually, the historical stock market average.
    Gradually, the index fund caught on and today there are hundreds of varieties of index funds covering popular indices such as the Dow Jones industrial average and the S&P 500, to niche funds encompassing small-cap, growth, value stocks and more. Investors can also choose from bond, commodity and alternative asset index funds.
    The index fund mania doesn't show signs of abating. A recent research report from Standard & Poor's found that index fund investing was more successful than ever. The 2017 report states that over the last 15 years, 92 percent of actively managed large-cap funds returns lagged those of a S&P 500 index fund. And, small- and mid-cap active funds were worse performers with 93 and 95 percent of indexes, respectively, winning the return competition over similar actively managed funds.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://money.usnews.com/investing/funds/articles/2018-09-05/are-actively-managed-mutual-funds-fading-away
  • PIMCO Hires John Studzinski
    FYI: PIMCO, one of the world’s premier fixed income investment managers, has hired John Studzinski as Managing Director and Vice Chairman of PIMCO in its Executive Office. Mr. Studzinski, who has spent most of his career working in Asia and Europe, brings to PIMCO 30 years of experience as a trusted financial and strategic advisor who has forged deep bonds among the world’s leaders in business, finance, government and NGOs. He will be based in PIMCO’s New York office and will report to Emmanuel Roman, PIMCO’s Chief Executive Officer.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-hires-john-studzinski-managing-113000116.html
  • M*: The Terrific 28
    We own a couple there also: CWGIX and ABALX, and have owned CAIBX, ANWPX, AWSHX and AMECX on and off over the years. Of those all were decent performers except AMECX. I can't imagine why that one is supposed to be so great.
  • A New Retirement Bond
    Such hype and salesmanship, but nothing novel.
    What's being suggested is a zero coupon bond that converts to a fixed maturity coupon bond after a specified number of years. I recently owned such a bond (and not for this purpose). So there's nothing novel in the product. What is novel is the pitch.
    They acknowledge that "annuities do a good job taking out longevity risk." This product does not. They say it becomes like an "annuity paying a stable, secure income". But that's only for a fixed term, unlike an annuity that guarantees its higher stable secure income for life.
    It's interesting that they pitch mortgages as being simple because payments are a "constant number that aggregates some interest and some principal." Yet annuities, perhaps because payments are also constant number that aggregates some interest and some principal "are [considered] opaque". (It's this combination of principal and interest that accounts for annuities' stream of higher payments than bonds.)
    Or are annuities opaque because you don't know how the issuer raises the cash to make those payments? The issuer simply promises to make the payments. And that's different from bonds exactly how?
    Annuities are not perfect products. They are designed to provide a higher rate of guaranteed income for life. These bonds, while more liquid, fall well short of doing that.
  • M*: The Terrific 28
    Old_Skeet owns five of the twenty eight funds that made the list. They are CWGIX, AMECX, CABIX, ANWPX & ABALX. All have been held for a good number of years.
  • Fido's Sept. 2018 C.G. distribution estimates & payable dates (only Sept) for a few funds
    @BenWP,
    While funds do make distributions either quarterly of semi-annually, you conveyed my point that this year will probably see significant distributions due the stock market gains of the last couple of years as well as what @msf pointed out above, new portfolio management has resulted in the cleaning-house of many long/short term holdings resulting in significant realizations of stock gains.
  • SStocks Near Record Highs, but Risks Continue to Mount
    @Ted: An excerpt from a current Washington Post Article:
    "Turkey’s woes could be just the start as record global debt bills come due"
    "Ten years after the worst financial panic since the 1930s, growing debt burdens in key developing economies are fueling fears of a new crisis. For now, few experts think that a broader crisis is imminent. But the danger of a financial contagion should be taken more seriously in light of a massive increase in global debt since the 2008 downturn, the economists said."
  • Trump Calls For Review Of Rule Requiring RMDs At 70 1/2
    The original intention language is indeed in ERISA (Pub. L. 93-406), right at the top, Title I, Subtitle A, Sec 2, "Findings and Declarations of Policy". That section was subsequently codified as 29 USC §1001.
    Here's how the ICI summarized that language in 2005:
    A little over 30 years ago, Congress enacted and President Gerald R. Ford signed into law the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA). The purpose of the Act was to protect and enhance Americans’ retirement security by establishing comprehensive standards for employee benefit plans. The Act also created the Individual Retirement Account, or IRA.
    The ICI goes on to note that the purpose of those IRAs was narrow - to fill the gap only for "individuals not covered by retirement plans at work."
    "IRAs “have drifted very far from their original intent” of helping those who need them most, researchers for the Center for Retirement Research [at Boston College] conclude in a new study."
    http://squaredawayblog.bc.edu/squared-away/iras-fall-short-of-original-goal/
    That study complements the data Lewis cited by providing data for the IRA subset of all retirement accounts. Its summary:
    The brief’s key findings are:
    • IRAs were intended to give those without an employer plan access to a tax-deferred savings vehicle.
    • Today, IRAs hold nearly half of all private retirement assets, but most of these funds are rollovers from 401(k)s, rather than contributions.
    • The 14 percent of households who do contribute to IRAs include:
      • higher-income dual-earners who also save in a 401(k);
      • moderate-income singles or one-earner couples, often with a 401(k); and
      • higher-income entrepreneurs with no current 401(k).
    • One way to turn IRAs back into an active savings vehicle – one used more for contributions – is to auto-enroll all workers without an employer plan in an IRA.
    The summary, including links to data (with charts) and to the full study, can be found here:
    http://crr.bc.edu/briefs/who-contributes-to-individual-retirement-accounts/
  • Trump Calls For Review Of Rule Requiring RMDs At 70 1/2
    How successful have such tax deferred plans been at their original intention of providing ordinary Americans with a secure retirement?
    These numbers (from 2017) would suggest not very successful. If all retirees have to go with this is SS (no pension or employer provided health insurance), it would be tough living another 20-30 years on those amounts - even if savvy investors and even if the current exuberant market were to continue bubbling along.
    Remember that these are tax deferred amounts - meaning a chunk of these savings will go to covering the deferred taxes upon withdrawal.
    2017 Average 401K Retirement Plan Totals
    Under age 25
    Average 401(k) account balance: $4,773
    Average 401(k) savings rate: 4.8 percent
    Age 25 to 34
    Average 401(k) account balance: $24,728
    Average 401(k) savings rate: 5.9 percent
    Age 35 to 44
    Average 401(k) account balance: $68,935
    Average 401(k) savings rate: 6.3 percent
    Age 45 to 54
    Average 401(k) account balance: $129,051
    Average 401(k) savings rate: 7 percent
    Age 55 to 64
    Average 401(k) account balance: $190,505
    Average 401(k) savings rate: 8.3 percent
    Age 65 plus
    Average 401(k) account balance: $209,984
    Average 401(k) savings rate: 9 percent
    https://money.usnews.com/money/retirement/401ks/articles/2018-07-23/are-your-retirement-savings-ahead-of-the-curve
    Above numbers based on a survey of actual 401K plan participants. Considering that fewer than half of all U.S. workers participate in a 401K plan (for a variety of reasons) the picture looks even bleaker.
    https://www.fool.com/retirement/2017/06/19/does-the-average-american-have-a-401k.aspx
  • Fido's Sept. 2018 C.G. distribution estimates & payable dates (only Sept) for a few funds
    These are not very early estimates of the annual distributions, but of Sept. distributions. Some Fidelity funds typically distribute gains in Sept and again in December.
    It seems that in addition to HAINX, we have a couple more examples of what can happen when a new manager (even from the same management company) takes over a fund and turns its portfolio upside down. (I thought Fidelity was trying to get away from that.)
    FDGFX - 14.75% distribution - M* writes "Gordon Scott officially took over in January 2018"
    FCPVX - 18.82% distribution - M* writes: "The fund has undergone two manager transitions in recent years."
  • Trump Calls For Review Of Rule Requiring RMDs At 70 1/2
    IMHO, the suggested rationale that RMDs be eliminated (or at least pushed back a few years, say, to age 75) because some people (a) are working now so don't need the money (b) will need the benefit of longer tax deferrals on those few years of RMDs they take before they retire, is a red herring.
    If that really is a problem, it can be easily addressed without making broad changes in RMDs that affect everyone.
    To some extent, it is already addressed. If someone over 70 works for an employer that offers a retirement plan accepting rollovers, the worker need just transfer the IRAs into the retirement plan. That gets rid of any RMD so long as the person continues working for the employer.
    "The vast majority would still need to withdraw money on a regular cadence but allowing the untapped portion to further compound." Those workers in this "vast majority" withdraw money (RMDs or more) on a regular cadence and leave the rest of the IRA untapped to further compound. Done! That's the way things work now.
    For the few (the "unvast minority"?) who don't need any money while working, they pay their taxes on the modest annual RMDs ("tax a little now") for a few years while they continue to work. They're not required to spend those RMDs. So they move their RMDs to taxable accounts, where they "benefit from additional time for their investments to compound"
    There's no need to create more opportunities to abuse the system, merely to address what is to a large extent (i.e. for the "vast majority") not a problem. And for the few who are substantially affected, there are more targeted ways of helping them.
  • Trump Calls For Review Of Rule Requiring RMDs At 70 1/2
    The benefits for high-net worth investors if required minimum distributions (RMDs) are eliminated are hard to miss.... “Often times, these clients would prefer not to get taxed either because their income is very high or they would prefer to keep this money tax deferred for the next generation.
    Agreed that the rest of the stuff is just noise. But some of the noise is worth listening to, such as the thought that sometimes simplifying things is a good idea.
    So let's simplify the rules for inherited IRAs by eliminating stretch IRAs altogether. Five years and out (take the money from inherited IRAs over five years or less). The point of an individual retirement account tax shelter is to shelter your retirement assets, not your legacy. The opposite, getting rid of RMDs altogether, would just distort the retirement purpose even further.
    Kitces:
    From a tax policy perspective, the tax code provisions allowing tax-deferred growth for traditional retirement accounts (and tax-free growth for Roths) were created to help individuals and couples save for retirement, not their heirs. While this challenge is at least partially ameliorated by the fact that beneficiaries themselves are subject to Required Minimum Distributions after the death of the original retirement account owner, the fact that many/most retirement accounts are left to younger individuals of the next generation means that often the tax preferences for retirement accounts apply even longer for beneficiaries than for the original contributor!
    https://www.kitces.com/blog/proposals-for-eliminating-stretch-iras-repealing-nua-and-the-3-4m-retirement-account-cap-in-the-fy2016-treasury-greenbook/
  • Trump Calls For Review Of Rule Requiring RMDs At 70 1/2
    In 2011 the English government (using data from England and Wales) conducted a study to estimate the probability of an individual 50 years old in 2011 to reach 100 years of age. The results were 11.4% for males and 17.0% for females. These numbers if applied to the US, would imply that we might be significantly underestimating the income requirements during retirement.
    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/223114/diffs_life_expectancy_20_50_80.pdf
  • Periodic Table Performance Returns 2007- 1st Half 2018
    Normally when I see these tables, I just go ooohh, look at the pretty pictures.
    But when there's coloring outside the lines, I take a closer look. The S&P 500 sector performance table shows eleven rows of sectors (plus a row for the S&P 500). The problem is that until 2016 there were only ten sectors.
    This is how the chart looked through 2015.
    http://www.usfunds.com/media/files/pdfs/researchreports/2016/Periodic-Table-of-Sector-Returns-2016.pdf
    image
    Here's State Street Global Advisors (SPDRs) current chart, with 10 sectors through 2015, and eleven sectors since.
    http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/Pdf/All Funds Documents/Document Resources/10 Year Sector Returns
    image
    I don't know where NovelInvestor got its figures or how it retrofitted the new Real Estate sector into earlier years. That should have been easy to do - Real Estate was simply carved out of Financials, so the other sectors' figures for the past decade should not have been changed. But looking at the NovelInvestor table, it seems they were.
    https://www.reit.com/investing/investor-resources/gics-classification-real-estate
    Just wait until the latest sector reorg hits these tables. With IT being split, Media being expanded, and other companies being moved around, it will be difficult to extend these new sectors back in time to create a "virtual" table of how these sectors might have done over the past ten years. (That's because there's ambiguity in how each of the companies would have been classified over the past decade as their businesses matured.)
  • Buy ... Sell ... and Ponder (Fall Investing Season ... September, October & November)
    I wasn’t soliciting advice. Just sharing something that hasn’t worked. Hope there’s room in the thread for some of those types of submissions as well. (The “hope is not a plan” was meant in jest. Nobody needs to tell me that.)
    If somebody wants to start a thread on only what funds have been rising lately, that’s possible. (I think @Catch22 has in the past posted a very detailed chart which shows the hottest sectors.)
    I’ve never been a momentum investor. That’s not to take away from those who subscribe to it. I do have a plan suitable for someone of my age, temperament, situation, and life expectancy. Intend to stay with the plan that’s served me well over the years.
    -
    * What I will suggest here, however, that the experience I shared might point to very narrow (maybe even narrowing) market breadth. Is it possible that only a few hot sectors are driving those gains in the major indexes?
  • The U.S. Is Experiencing A Dangerous Corporate Debt Bubble
    Hi Ted,
    You referenced a terrific article that summarized the causes of a bubble formation. It provided ample charts as supporting documentation. Thank you for referencing this short, easy to read, and logical article that addresses a complex and highly interactive part of the marketplace. Booms and busts have always reflected our market economy.
    Although I read the book many years ago, the article finds the same root cause for the bust feature of our markets as did "Manias, Panics, and Crushes" by Aliber and Kindleberger. Their model is that the investment crowd sees others making bundles of money and fears being left out of this wealth winning game. They borrow far too much and overspend. Too much money chasing too little product drives up prices. After some undetermined period, a few wise folks pullout and crashes follow. Hence the bubbles and crash cycle.
    Although history never precisely repeats itself, the echoes of the past do. Our memories are short and we are slow learners too. Many successful FMO members do not follow that deadly pattern, but unfortunately many do. Good luck in understanding the market's puzzling timing mechanisms.
    Best Wishes
  • The 10 Commandments Of Retirement
    Totally agree that health care will consumer much larger part of our retirement resources. We still have over 15 years fom retirement. In the meantime, we maintain an active lifestyle, routine exercising (swimming and walking), and eating healthy.
  • Barron's Cover Story: A Market Shakeup Is Pushing Alphabet And Facebook Out Of The Tech Sector
    FYI: ( Make sure your watch the video, its very well done, along with the Sidebar "Tech Stocks Could Be Winners in Big Sector Shift.)
    Tech Stocks Could Be Winners in Big Sector Shif.)
    A Market Shakeup Is Pushing Alphabet and Facebook Out of the Tech Sector
    Photo: Javier Jaén
    Think of Big Tech and companies like Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, and Facebook come to mind. The firms dominate our digital lives, living on our cellphones and influencing how we interact with people, buy things, get to places, access information, and consume entertainment. Their market impact has also been huge: These four stocks have returned 33.7% annually over the past five years, on average, versus the S&P 500’s 14.5%.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-market-shakeup-is-pushing-alphabet-and-facebook-out-of-the-tech-sector-1535762710
  • RiverPark Focused Value Fund to liquidate
    M FO Members: Fund manager David Berkowitz explains how since his fund's creation he managed to finish YTD in the 96 percentile, one year in the 96 percentile, and three years in the 100 percentile. David, in the immortal words of former Chicago Bears Coach, Mike Ditka "Who Ya Crappin’?
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.riverparkfunds.com/focused-value-fund
  • SFGIX/SIGIX Open Again?
    Clearly. Trying to imagine why you would charge such a thing. Guess you have not studied in detail its changing fortunes the last few years. 5.5y ago DS mentioned its defensive stance to an extent (http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2013/03/seafarer-overseas-growth-income-sfgix/) but not more recently (https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2015/05/seafarer-overseas-growth-income-sfgixsigix-may-2015/). See also its M* star changes over time.
    In any case it invests in EM; who would think "philosophy should protect capital in down markets" of any such vehicle?
    It is fascinating to me to read that investments which do not pan out, or not quickly enough, are somehow the result of defocusing, as though effort and will and hard thinking and other notionally causal behaviors can and will preclude outcomes like @MikeM quoted. That's why I wondered if he doubled down on those overreacted-to stocks.
    I have been reading Foster for years, back to Matthews, interesting guy. But some months, and longer, the bear eats you.