Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Alphabet And Amazon Bring Back Ghosts Of 1,000s Past
    I'd like to see GOOGL and AMZN do 10:1 splits, making their shares go down to roughly $100. AAPL did a 7:1 split a few years back as its share price was $700+. I own these stocks via funds, FCNTX has done well owning these names, but I'm worried that the law of large numbers may prevent GOOGL and AMZN from soaring to even greater heights going forward.
  • Consuelo Mack's WealthTrack: Scroll To Above
    FYI: (I will link episode as soon as it becomes available, early Saturday morning.)
    Regards,
    Ted
    May 25
    Just about everywhere you look, America is awash in debt. U.S. households recently set a new record of indebtedness, $12.7 trillion, more than they owed at the height of the credit bubble in 2008
    But context is everything. As last week’s WEALTHTRACK guest, Cornerstone Macro’s top ranked economist, Nancy Lazar told us, consumer debt is down significantly relative to disposable personal income at 88% of income vs. 115% in 2008, and savings rates are up.
    Corporate debt is another story. It too has been growing significantly in recent years, but unlike more thrifty consumers, it is accelerating at a faster rate than revenues.
    Corporate debt is more than 90% of revenues, a record during an expansion. And despite historically low interest rates, corporate interest expense is barely off its all- time high.
    What about government debt? In 2016 total U.S. national debt was estimated at $22.5 trillion. The federal government accounted for the lion’s share, about $19.5 trillion. States had a little over $1 trillion and local governments nearly $2 trillion in debt. Again, context is everything. The last 10 years have seen federal debt skyrocket from about 60% of GDP in 2005 to over 100% of GDP, while state debt has held steady at 6%, and local government indebtedness has increased slightly, to a little over 10%.
    There are always outliers. One of the biggest is in the municipal bond market. The largest issuer of tax free muni bonds by far is the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico.
    With over $70 billion in bond obligations and $50 billion in unfunded pensions, Puerto Rico cannot meet its obligations and has gone to bankruptcy court. The outcome is yet to be determined.
    This week’s WEALTHTRACK guests each manage several top rated mutual funds, investing in multiple types of bonds using different strategies. They also work together on the Fixed Income Team at Thornburg Investment Management. Thornburg is a WEALTHTRACK sponsor but their collective performance speaks for itself.
    Jeff Klingelhofer is a portfolio manager on several Thornburg funds including its 5-star rated, Thornburg Limited Term Income Fund which uses a laddered strategy, investing in bonds with staggered maturities. He also manages the 4-star rated Thornburg Strategic Income Fund, which has a flexible mandate to invest anywhere in the world and in any kind of income producing security.
    Our other guest is Nicholos Venditti, portfolio manager for several municipal bonds funds including the 5-star Thornburg Limited Term Municipal Fund, again using a laddered portfolio, and the 4-star Thornburg Strategic Municipal Income Fund which also has a broad, flexible approach.
    We will discuss the state of the fixed income markets as a whole and the condition of different sectors specifically, as well as where they are investing and what they are avoiding. We will also get their very strong views on why the bond market does not lend itself to passive index investing. Yes, they are defending their profession but they also point out some key differences between stocks and bonds.
    If you miss the show on television this week you can always catch it on our website. We also have an EXTRA report from another firm about why active is an advantage in bond investing. As always, we welcome your feedback. Click on the Contact Us link on our website, or connect with us on Facebook or Twitter.
    On this Memorial Day weekend, please take a moment to remember those who have lost their lives in military service to our country. They sacrificed so that we could celebrate a holiday in freedom and peace with our loved ones. Make the week ahead a profitable and a productive one.
    Best regards,
    Consuelo
    Video Clip:

    utm_term=0_bf662fd9c0-606dd543f6-71656893
    M* Snapshot THFIX:
    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/thifx/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot THFIX:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/thifx
    THIFX Is Ranked #17 In The (S-T B) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/short-term-bond/thornburg-limited-term-income-fund/thifx
    M* Snapshot TSSAX:
    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/TSSAX/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot TSSAX:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/tssax
    TSSAX Is Ranked #57 In THe (MNI) fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/muni-national-interm/thornburg-strategic-municipal-income-fd/tssax
  • Allan Roth: Where I Disagree With Warren Buffett
    FWIW, my take on Buffett's 90% equity/10% short term bond is that this was a retirement portfolio recommendation, and assuming 4% withdrawal rate, that is enough "cash" to wait out a 2-3 year market drop. Even if the market doesn't fully recover in 3 years, it should have recovered significantly.
    The bond allocation wasn't an attempt to predict interest rates, but to provide a near cash allocation, ISTM.
  • BlackRock To Pay $1.25 Billion Over 20 Years For New York Headquarters
    FYI: BlackRock Inc (BLK.N) will initially pay about $60 per square foot in rent for its future headquarters in the Hudson Yards district on the far west side of midtown Manhattan, the company said in a filing on Thursday.
    BlackRock, which oversees $5.4 trillion in assets and is the world's largest asset manager, is moving into 847,000 square feet (78,690 sq meters) of a development that will be part of a neighborhood rising over rail yards and tracks in a once-forlorn corner of New York City.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-property-hudsonyards-blackrock-idUSKBN18L2BY?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+reuters/businessNews+(Business+News)
  • Alphabet And Amazon Bring Back Ghosts Of 1,000s Past
    FYI: With Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN) racing tick for tick towards the $1,000/share level but coming up just shy today, we just can’t help but be reminded of another run towards the 1,000 milestone 51 years ago. For the sake of the two stocks and the overall market, though, we hope that this time around, the $1,000 level isn’t nearly as tough a nut to crack. The battle for 1,000 we are talking about from 51 years ago was the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Back in 1966, after a rally of nearly 20% off of its June 1965 lows, the DJIA was knocking on the door of 1,000 but came up just shy of the mark, closing at 995.15 on 2/9/66. While the DJIA didn’t cross 1,000 on February 9th, we can’t help but think that most people felt it was just a matter of time before the 1,000 level was breached.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/alphabet-and-amazon-bring-back-ghosts-of-1000s-past/
  • Abby Joseph Cohen: Fixed Income Headed For Trouble
    Huh, the write is like she has been reading MFO posts over the years.
    I need to see her verified and audited investment portfolio from May, 2007 to date to discover whether she still knows what she is talking about; as to placing her personal investments into the proper sectors, based upon her thinking.
  • New Cambria ETF: Dividends, Options And A Big Launch
    Meb's shop had 8 funds (at least 3 months old) through April with about $400M in AUM. Average age 2.6 years with Shareholder Yield SYLD being oldest at nearly 4 years and largest at $126M. Average ER = 0.55%. The fund family has a mixed record with half its funds beating peers and the other half trailing since inception, giving it a "Middle" rating on the MFO Fund Family Scorecard. That's an improvement for this young family, which was in the basement for a while. The value-based funds have performed the worst, putting them in some good company. Click on image below to enlarge ...
    image
  • Josh Brown: What We’re Telling Clients About European Stocks
    FYI: Providing historical context is one of the roles we play on behalf of our clients.
    And that’s a good thing, because for an investor who just began paying attention to markets in the last ten years, the extent of their context is that the S&P 500 is the only game in town worth playing, it always goes up, and dollars invested in anything else are wasted.
    Looking out past this period, however, and you see that this is plainly not the truth. It’s our job to not only make sure that clients understand this, empirically, but that they’re invested in such a way so as to take advantage of the myopia of others.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/05/24/what-were-telling-clients-about-european-stocks/
  • Millions Go To Madoff Fund Lawyer, Nothing For Investors
    VF - it's been my experience that lawyers always get paid their "usual and customary" fees before whats left gets divided up amongst those who actually suffered losses. It's been going on here in MN in the Tom Petters ponzi scheme for over 8 years now. Claimants piss and moan but generally in the end resign themselves to getting something at least. Judges can rule that the fees are excessive but rarely do. Besides, that often involves hiring and paying more lawyers to fight that business.
  • pdi query
    The cef PDI has been at a nice premium for some time now, uniquely so, almost, and certainly the first time in years. I have sold some. Significant rise and decline just today's trading.
    This guy thinks its future will probably not be as bright as its past:
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelfoster/2017/04/29/avoid-this-stealth-dividend-cut-now/#6ad284647a5c
    What say you?
    And alternatives? PCM? RCS? PCI? All different, of course. And different risk ratings, not simple to understand given their performance.
  • Young People Should Put Down Their Smartphones, Step Away From The Avocado Toast, And Do This
    Here's another regret they might have--not having lived while they're young. The idea that all meals out with friends and family--moments you may treasure for the rest of your life--are "mindless" or that buying coffee to say study for a test or just for the sheer pleasure of being alive and enjoying a coffee is always a waste sounds like the typical view you hear from these financial planning types. They're busy wagging their fingers at kids when in fact young people are making less money today in low-end jobs on an inflation-adjusted basis than they did thirty or forty years ago in many states. It also makes the assumption that every young person will live to retirement age when in fact they won't. It's a matter of achieving balance--enjoying some daily pleasures--and saving. It's also a matter of paying young people appropriately.
  • Millions Go To Madoff Fund Lawyer, Nothing For Investors
    FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
    A firm hired by the U.S. to distribute $4 billion to victims of Bernard Madoff's Ponzi scheme has racked up $38.8 million in billings over four years. The investors are still waiting for their first checks, though.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/#q=Millions+go+to+Madoff+fund+lawyer,+nothing+for+investors
  • Jason Zweig: Are You Really Crazy Enough To Buy A Quadruple-Leveraged ETF?
    I think market knows there are enough crazy people, so yeah. I'm going to stay underinvested if this bull market continues for next 5 years, except for my retirement accounts where I tend to be fully invested.
  • John Waggoner: Is Dow Theory Signaling A Market Downturn?
    I tend to pay attention to the theory of the Dow Transports being a leading indicator as to the strength of the economy. As it turns out, this warning sign has been flashing for 2 years.
  • What Do Hollywood Actresses Have In Common With A Bond Market Index Fund?
    FYI: In 2006, Anne Hathaway made People magazine’s 50 Most Beautiful People list. That year, the actress had starred in the film, The Devil Wears Prada. Nine years later, the now 34 year-old beauty reported that she’s already starting to lose roles to younger actresses. It’s a sad Hollywood truth. Time Entertainment reports that older male actors often get leading roles into their 40s, 50s, even 60s. Far fewer women do.
    Once they hit a certain age, they become blasé, like a bond market index fund. Today, bonds rarely get respect. Stocks have won their Oscars for seven straight years. Bond yields, in contrast, are lower than a drug-addicted actor in rehab. But that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t own bonds.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://assetbuilder.com/knowledge-center/articles/-what-do-hollywood-actresses-have-in-common-with-a-bond-market-index-fund
  • GLRBX
    PVFIX has been taking a bit of a hit lately because of "value" bets on "energy". I am waiting patiently to add to my position with money from the distributions over last several years that I never re-invest.
  • The Closing Bell: Wall Street Tumbles As Investors Flee Latest Trump Crisis: Dow Down 372
    GLRBX down 1.06% yesterday. Eh, not impressed for a 50/50 equity/bond split fund.
    Kind of makes sense. I believe small and mid caps were down about 2x that amount.
    Unfortunately, the fund managers' decision to stress small and mid cap value equities has not served it well over the past three to five years. In addition, It's upside/downside capture ratio has been pretty poor during that time period as well.
  • how does your brokerage display your holdings' gain?
    @Davidmoran. I recently left ML where I had a managed account and went back to Fidelity after 4 years with ML. Oddly, the way Merrill did it is much more accurate. If you go into history of purchases, they show cap gains and dividends as having a zero cost so the return is accurate. When my accounts were transferred last week, Fido showed reinvested cost on some of my holdings total return cut in half in some cases. I will be working with the account manager at Fido to do the corrections since I have all the data. Like you, I use total return to see if I should shave profits or how much profit I have from my original investment. One of the reasons I left ML is when I had my advisor try and sell specific lots that had the most profit, ML used FIFO regardless of instructions. They did this numerous times. Fidelity let's you choose the lots and they execute as instructed.
  • Bank Still Look Like A Good Investment
    If this is a 1995 style market which "experts" are predicting, then growth should outperform value. So IMO tech outperforms financials.
    I do think below from Bill Maher is a genuine problem for "tech". Something I have been saying for years as I refuse to create a Facebook/Twitter account. Then again, I'm known to be anti-social...and proud of it.

  • Fund Focus: Franklin Income Fund
    The author seems to simply be reaching for a reason to not like the fund.
    They say it's hard to compare the fund because "The nearly 70-year-old Franklin Income fund hasn’t had a clear benchmark for all those years because most of its investments are in five different asset classes—domestic and foreign dividend-paying stocks, investment-grade bonds, high-yield (or junk) bonds and convertible bonds—to generate current income."
    And this is bad..why?
    "The picture is even muddier because the asset mix can shift dramatically over time, and some of the convertibles can be “synthetic”—swaps that give the fund an enhanced yield on a common stock in exchange for forgoing some potential price appreciation but accepting all potential depreciation."
    I would say that shifting assets to enhance performance is why you might choose active management in the first place. FKINX is the largest individual holding in my taxable account, acquired though inheritance. Thanks Dad.