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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Pimco Has A Manager Who Tops Dan Ivascyn. His Name? Dan Ivascyn
    Highly leveraged with a healthy high yield portfolio. When the bears start to run, those in it will be in a world of hurt. I will stick with my PIMIX/PONAX and sleep better.
    Technically (and more from the top of my head than bc I am delving deep into their portfolio), PDI, PCI, and it's PIMCO CEF cousins are mostly NOT high yield funds. They make a lot of their return on smartly-purchased MBS, but also on swaps and derivatives that both hedge their portfolios to swings in interest rates and add to their returns. Look at the performance of their NAVs on days when interest rates rose.
    As far as premiums go, think of PDI as the equivalent of a single bond. (I know I know it's not! Just work with me here....) Would you rather hold a bond that matures in, say, 10 years (I know PDI doesn't mature and return your full par value.....just an exercise), and pays 8% interest along the way (again, I know it's distribution is not fixed like a bond....), or would you rather own a bond with similar maturity that pays 4% interest along the way? Leaving out price of the bond. The yield-starved market is pricing these CEFs that earn 8-10% on their NAV, at premiums, that still allow an ~8.5% distribution (give or take a %) on current price. And yes, prices are volatile compared to their NAVs or to OEFs.
    Just my thoughts. Currently hold PDI, PCI (bought later 2 just yesterday for a small account I help manage), PFN, PTY, PKO, for full disclosure. But I would also like to see their prices decline some so I can purchase more in various accounts. So talking them up defeats that purpose some ;)
    Lastly, on the topic of "highly leveraged", is a fund that holds bonds picked by arguably the best bond-picking managers/team around presently, levered up 1.5-to-just-under-2 times, really a bad thing? Plus managed with "the full toolbox" available to bond managers today--hedges, swaps, derivatives, so dampen the effects of macro interest moves. mREITs are often levered up multiples of that and generally much less diversified in their holdings.
    Finally, and yes, then I'll get off my proselytizing soapbox, for those who worry about asset gathering and forced redemptions, these CEFs do not deal with that, as success leads to investors purchasing the fund, driving up the premium perhaps. Conversely, sales do not force the managers to sell to meet redemptions. These are $1-2 billion-sized Ivascyn funds (best of ideas maybe? Or at least able to invest across the spectrum of holding sizes/availabilities). Imagine investing in PONDX/PIMIX when it was only this size.....
  • What Will You do When the Bear Arrives?
    Hi folks,
    Good discussion on the reporting of cash held within a portfolio. For years I counted cash as a part of my portfolio and factored it in with portfolio performance reporting since cash is an asset class. My brokerage firm still reports performance with cash being considered. However, Morningstar's portfolio manager does not factor cash into portfolio performance reporting. So, with this, it is very easy for me see both ways what the cash drag or its benefit is and by how much. Thus, I started tracking portfolio performance reporting with and without cash. If I report portfolio performance it is for everthing held (including cash) and for investment returns it is for everything held without cash. Because I am holding about 20% cash within my portfolio returns as a whole are currently about 20% behind investment returns. However, should we get into a market downdraft I'm thinking the amount of cash held will help soften the performance decline.
    In addition, I do not factor cash as a part portfolio principal to compute retirement withdrawals. This is done on invested assets only. Generally, I take no more than one half of my five year average investment return. In this way, principal grows over time.
    So, when the "Bear Comes Calling" ...
    By keeping a good store of cash and the fact I've not overdrawn my portfolio in retirement I should be OK when the bear comes calling with an ample amout of cash "on hand" to invest for the rebound. And, my dividend and interest payments should (for the most part) keep rolling on in. In addition, my asset allocation is also something for me to consider and will also play a role in how I fair in a bear market.
    Skeet
  • Bond desk questions
    Hi fundalarm: I've worked w/ edward jones before but IMHO the firm is a rip off. the advisors charge 2% annually and every bonds I find /they sell ~ 1% more more than other firms. The little guy like myself keep loosing $$ at the firm for advisor fees. Stopped using them since 4 years ago. Edward Jones can give you good analysis regarding bonds you want to buy, and most of them are safe BBB- or higher rated but you probably can do all the research yourself about bonds and set up a google.com/alert the tell if the bond will bankrup or go to moodys.com- very simple things to do to find research about the bonds. you can also ask schwab-bond specialist to do research about the bonds before you buy. Most bonds at schwab are very good ratings but sometimes I want to buy bonds are little junky higher yields BB or higher. If you buy good companies risks of bankruptcy is very low. I think bonds maybe more attractive than stocks, Funds/ETFs because you dont pay a fee, you still make little money if market is up or down and you can sleep better at night.
  • Pimco Has A Manager Who Tops Dan Ivascyn. His Name? Dan Ivascyn
    I never know how to define 'core holding', but I guess PONDX is a fund I have faith in (faith in the manager). I'm in it and I tend to stay in it because it is to me the best multisector fund available. I like the adjustments the manager makes, like moving more globally in recent history and shortening duration substantially. And the secret derivative sauce seems to work. I actually might think of a core bond fund as one that stays fairly consistent in it's investments, like MWTRX or DODIX. I don't think PONDX can be classified as such. But if the definition of core becomes a fund you will stick with through thick and thin then, well, in that sense is core for me.
    I have 4 classified bond funds which I own because I'm hoping they are the place to be moving forward through rate hikes and an often talked about shift to global fixed income having better returns in the next 5 to whatever years.
    I own:
    PONDX because of the great management track record and it's flexibility
    PFIDX also has Ivascyn on the team, classified as a low duration floating income fund
    MAINX and PGMSX for the Asia and global sector
    All 4 funds are at about equal percentages. Also have a lot of bond exposure which I can't control within my 2 balanced funds, PRWCX and ICMBX... FWIW
  • These Funds Are Tops In 3-Year Returns
    At this point I think the 10 year returns are probably more relevant as it has gone through 08, 09 dip. I dont think the next three years will be like the past three :)
  • These Funds Are Tops In 3-Year Returns
    FYI: Growth investing has been great for American shareholders over the past three years.
    While the best-performing U.S. equity mutual funds between 2014 and 2017 fall into several different market capitalization categories, almost all of them are tilted towards or were designed to capture growth stocks.
    The S&P 500 returned about 10 percent annually over the past three years, posting a year-to-date total return of 11.67 percent. All of the funds on our list beat that benchmark.
    According to Morningstar data, these mutual funds had the best three-year performance as of Monday were:
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.fa-mag.com/news/these-11-mutual-funds-have-had-the-best-3-year-returns-33946.html?print
  • Fidelity Global Balanced Fund to close to new investors
    Open 24 years with less than 500 million AUM and mediocre performance. Maybe Fidelity is getting ready to merge this fund into another global or international fund.
  • Tobacco Stocks Are Flaming Out
    @MFO Members: In 2011 a doctor stood at the foot of my hospital bed and said, "Ted if you don't quit smoking you'll be dead within a year." As a 3 pack a day smoker for over fifty years that was quite a wake-up call. The long-term effects leave me with CHF coupled with COPD that thankfully are manageable.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • DoubleLine's Gundlach Sues California Wine Merchant Over Bogus Bordeaux
    I taught at Humboldt State University in the early 1970s, and even then spent some time on weekends in what was then a rather small-potatoes Sonoma-Napa wine country. But ever since then, I have visited on a somewhat regular basis. What a transformation there. Even though I have had the privilege of traveling through much of Western Europe's wine regions, I still gravitate to Northern California because of its familiarity. We belong to a number of wine clubs (Robledo, Wilson, Seghesio, Domaine Carneros, Geyser Peak, etc), mostly in Sonoma, and like others here enjoy wine almost every night with dinner. We have a group of friends that has gathered every Thursday night for more than 30 years to share some very good wine and conversation. Good friends, good wine, good food, good conversation. The world could use a lot more of that.
  • DoubleLine's Gundlach Sues California Wine Merchant Over Bogus Bordeaux
    Not quite following your point but sense your defensiveness. Not luck and not lucky.
    Just go exploring at Total and/or Costco and you'll see. TJ is fine and d'Alba etc and others from Sicily and southern Italy can be similarly fine, sure. Have not bought a daily-drinking bottle over $10 in any quantity for years, if ever. Those I buy selectively.
    Just slogged though a couple dozen gifted 1950s-1990s reds, perfectly stored but 80% over the hill, sad story. Some only slightly sherried, bordeaux and burgundies and barolos and NoCal cabs, so drinkable, and lots of finesse, but muddy by the end.
    Was glad to be back to my large cheap cellar of ~~6yo 2000s, all of them under $8 tops. I see some Totals in NoCal unless you're up near Eureka :) , then Costco.
  • DoubleLine's Gundlach Sues California Wine Merchant Over Bogus Bordeaux
    I would agree that there are lucky finds under $10, but if you explore this price range consistently you will drive up the average price considerably, as of necessity you purge the undrinkables. In our area at least, the grouping between $12 and $20 gives the best results for relatively consistent and predictable quality. But there are certainly exceptions- the under $5 at Trader Joe's for the Epicuro group of red wines from southern Italy being an example. We are stocking some four cases of these at this time.
    For over thirty years we have kept approximately 40 cases of wine on hand in a small air-conditioned room- nothing fancy, I assure you- but we have a fair amount of experience in selecting relatively inexpensive wines of decent quality.
  • DoubleLine's Gundlach Sues California Wine Merchant Over Bogus Bordeaux
    @OJ,
    Costco, Total, and the occasional lucky twofer bin in the front of your local packy have good reds, sometimes, Costco often, for well under $15 and often under $10.
    Hard to find, takes some taste-testing, suffering duds.
    But for everyday we drink and serve (and have done so for years) good-enough chiantis (principally sangiovese, sometimes nebbiolo-mixed), riojas (principally tempranillo but sometimes garnacha-mixed), malbecs, the rare pinot noir, lots of montepulcianos, and when lucky modest bordeaux, all in the $6.50 - $10 range. Blends, of course, though you have to go through a lot of sketchy stuff.
    Hard to find in that range good cabs, merlots other than bordeaux, zins, and shirazes but probably doable. The herbaceous and/or grapy-jammy weaklings wind up going to the cooking deglaze bottle.
  • DoubleLine's Gundlach Sues California Wine Merchant Over Bogus Bordeaux
    Haven't tried those two, but have had some perfectly decent Clos du Bois whites from Trader Joe's- $12-$15 sounds about right. Don't worry about where where you find decent wine at a decent price- grocery store or not. When you do find a good deal, but a case and stash it in a reasonably cool place. Reds should hold up for at least five years, whites for maybe one or two.
    Edit: "Good" wine is what you like, nothing more, nothing less. There is absolutely not a direct correlation between price and quality, once you get above, say maybe $20 or so. The price/quality curve is usually fairly well correlated up to $18-$20 or so, and from the on up it really flattens out, to a point where you are paying for an "ego trip", bragging rights, or maybe collectivity, to give Gundlach the benefit of the doubt.
    There are exceptional specialty wines of course- limited harvests from a small vineyard plot, and that type of thing. But for everyday use with dinner, $12-$15 should be just fine.
  • DoubleLine's Gundlach Sues California Wine Merchant Over Bogus Bordeaux
    I'll concede to your experience Old Joe.
    I'm only a few years into wine. But, always find both the Red Rouge and Cab from Clos du Bois (Senoma County) pleasant. Retails for $12-$15 and can be had for $10. I realize this is grocery store level stuff and may have come from anywhere before they branded it. But, to my inexperienced taste, it's pretty decent.
    If you've heard of the brand, your (always) blunt appraisal is appreciated. :)
  • DoubleLine's Gundlach Sues California Wine Merchant Over Bogus Bordeaux
    We drink wine every night with dinner. Personally, I've done so since I was eight years old. (Yes, that's "eight",not "eighteen".) I must mildly disagree with the $10/"decent" threshold mentioned above... IMHO it's closer to $15 for good wine (at least here in northern CA), though some decent reds from southern Italy can be found at Trader Joe's for under $5.
  • DoubleLine's Gundlach Sues California Wine Merchant Over Bogus Bordeaux
    Not so fast. Gundlach's pretty bright and probably bought the wine as an investment.
    http://www.wineinvestment.com/wine-investment/alternative-investments/
    "The term ‘alternative investments’ is relatively loose, and includes tangible assets such as precious metals, art, wine, antiques, coins and stamps, plus some financial assets such as property, venture capital, funds and trusts.
    "Investing in wine, whether that be a rare bottle, a case of highly-regarded First Growths or an entire cellar, has consistently yielded decent low-risk returns. In fact, for the last 50 years the fine wine market has remained stable, despite the world’s economic crises ..."

    Agree with @Mark. Wine around here's often on sale at 20-30% below list. Some stores offer an additional 10% off if you buy 4. You can almost always find decent tasting Californias for around $10.
  • Tobacco Stocks Are Flaming Out
    I have personally owned VFTSX for years. It may not do better (or worse) than VFINX, but I am a first-generation non-smoker in my family. I have seen how bad the products really are, so just can't go there. And no, I don't go the whole ESG route, but there are certainly some very good options for those who do.
  • GASFX
    The expense ratio increase is troubling. It is higher now than any time in the last 10 years. It was 0.69 in 2012 with $713 million. Now it is 1.01 with $1.43 billion in assets. Something is not right.
  • GASFX
    I owned in a number of years ago. Bought around 2009 sold a few years back as energy tanked. I think it is a good fund. IMO natural gas makes a lot of sense. I believe we've all been hearing T. Boone make his case for wind and gas for some time. I also believe hydrocarbon fuel is going to be around for quite some time and this area is oversold. I own SND so you probably should seek others opinions. Years ago I received The Noload Mutual Fund newsletter. I got the recommendation to buy from there.
  • GASFX
    The expense ratio has climbed from .77 to 1.01% in a few years.