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Here's the best bond article I read this weekend.
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/high-yield-junk-bonds-9ed6141e?mod=search_headline
Excerpt:
The higher spreads split investors “into two camps—head for the hills or this is an incredible buying opportunity,” Fridson tells Barron’s. This “could be the most bifurcated decision many investors will ever face.”
As noted on other threads we "headed for the hills" a coupla years ago.
When bond share prices fall, yields rise. In the past, I have chosen to ride it down and reinvest the rising yields. But at 70 now, I think my risk tolerance will not permit such a thing anymore. I've created a cash-ballast sleeve, and moved a bunch into higher quality bonds, rather than Junk. "Time to preserve your portfolio," as quoted by someone else in this thread. :)"But for bond investors, starting yields matter much more than historical returns—and the higher the yield,
the better. Current yields are higher today than they have been for most of the past 15 years."
"Investors can capture a 6% yield on a mix of taxable bonds, including preferred stock.
That could provide a nice compliment to stocks, particularly in tax-advantaged accounts such as 401(k)s
and individual retirement accounts. ......
25 year romantic relationship. She is my neighbor. Prettiest blue eyes to such an extent that even at 76 years old strangers stop her on the streets to comment on her eyes. And without one bit of exaggeration have never seen her in a bad mood, always has a smile on her face, and never makes demands upon me. Our only stressor at times is when I ask her to change TV stations from Fox News. But she readily obliges. I can’t give that up!Junkster. None of our business of course but when you say “my long time lady friend,” does that mean friend or relationship? The way things are going a relationship between a regime supporter and a long time non maga is in trouble. Sorta a microcosm of the nation.
The nice thing is there’s a point of view to match every type of investor or political leaning.The Ask the Compound crew received many questions from anxious readers expressing concerns about stocks and the present investing environment. The crew provides some context for the current situation and offers potentially helpful suggestions.
Excellent post!Two comments.
Volatility creates opportunities.
Injecting daily politics as a basis for investment analysis isn't a good choice.
Heightened volatility due to massive uncertainty increases the likelihood of a serious"accident."
It's unwise to ignore the ramifications of executive branch actions which forcefully inject politics
into the business/economic realms.
The U.S. dollar is an early casualty of President Donald Trump’s us-against-the-world trade war. The dollar has lost almost 10 percent of its value since Inauguration Day, with more than half of decline coming this month after the president’s decision to lift taxes on imported goods to their highest level since 1909.
The weaker dollar — now near a three-year low against the euro — is bad news for Americans traveling abroad and could also aggravate inflation by making foreign goods more expensive. U.S. exporters, however, should gain.
“The administration’s approach to policy and its lack of transparency in terms of motivations have all led to a distinct sense of unease in financial markets,” said David Page, head of macro research for Axa Investment Managers in London, which manages $1 trillion in investments. “It doesn’t look like what we have been used to in terms of well-thought-out policy.”
Those concerns last week sent investors fleeing from the dollar and U.S. government securities, historically a haven during financial crises. This week, after markets quieted, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed those concerns. In an interview Monday with Bloomberg Television, he said there was “no evidence” that foreign investors were abandoning U.S. assets, saying they had been active participants in recent auctions of government debt.
“The dollar is incredibly entrenched in the global financial system in ways that no other currency is. Importing, exporting, borrowing, hedging, using the dollar for collateral, all of these things that major actors in the international economic system use the dollar for, would be so difficult to modify,” said Paul Blustein, author of “King Dollar: The Past and Future of the World’s Dominant Currency.”
As the president’s enthusiasm for tariffs made the United States look riskier, investments in other markets became more attractive. In Europe, the German government last month abandoned a constitutional borrowing limit and made plans to spend heavily to spur the economy and fund a military buildup, raising growth prospects. China encouraged higher consumer spending to better balance its export-heavy economic model. And Japanese 10-year government debt offered its highest return in 15 years.
Recent gains by the Swiss franc, the euro, Japanese yen and gold, which is up more than 7 percent in the past five trading days, support the idea that investors are looking for new ways to ride out the turmoil unleashed by the president.
Yet for major institutional investors, giving up on the dollar is not feasible. The $28 trillion Treasury market is the world’s largest and most liquid, meaning that investors can quickly sell their holdings if they need to raise cash. In contrast, there are only $1.4 trillion in German government bonds outstanding. Alternative currencies likewise fall short. The Chinese yuan is assuming a greater role in global commerce. But the Chinese government does not allow capital to move freely across its borders, meaning investors could find their funds trapped.
The euro also is handicapped. Nations that use the euro share a central bank in Frankfurt, which governs the zone’s monetary policy. But they lack a common fiscal authority akin to the U.S. Treasury and a common bond market.
Even if the era of global dollar supremacy survives the trade war, the currency’s short-term outlook might be poor. Trump’s imposition of widespread tariffs has made a recession more likely, economists say, which could hurt stock prices and prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. That would make investing in dollar-based assets less appealing.
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