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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Question about the "Eligible List" for American Funds Washington Mutual
    With some 40 years of various American Funds I never really felt that anything that I saw was "imprudent" (as in shaky, thoughtless, or reckless). For sure not all that was offered turned out to be a winner for our situation at that specific point in time, but that's just part of the investment game.
  • Question about the "Eligible List" for American Funds Washington Mutual
    I've been looking through LC Bl funds that have done well over the past three years without having gorged on the Mag 7, while also having turned in good performances YTD. Ideally I'd also like them to have more than a smattering of foreign stocks (indicating more flexibility).
    If I use 20% Mag 7 as a threshold (as of a couple of weeks ago), AFIFX comes in well under the wire at 17.5%. And it typically holds over 15% foreign (per M* analysis); currently 16.5%. In contrast, AICFX misses the cut at 22.5% Mag 7 (about 30% more), and it holds just half as much in foreign stocks (8.6%).
    Oooh, that's the kind of screening I like. :)
    I also like to look at returns from 2022 and 2020.
    Are you using MFO premium to screen for the =< 20% for the Mag 7?
    BTW, my interest in the old Washington Mutual eligibility list was mostly historical curiosity. It's always interesting to look back at what people believed would be prudent.
  • Fears of a Wider Mid-East War are Growing ...
    Here's some info that I also posted over in the "OT thread"-
    This, from NPR:
    Satellites show damage to Iran's nuclear program, but experts say it's not destroyed
    U.S. officials say that strikes conducted on three key Iranian nuclear sites have devastated its nuclear program, but independent experts analyzing commercial satellite imagery say the nation's long-running nuclear enterprise is far from destroyed.
    "At the end of the day there are some really important things that haven't been hit," says Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, who tracks Iran's nuclear facilities. "If this ends here, it's a really incomplete strike."
    In particular Lewis says the strike doesn't seem to have touched Iran's stocks of highly enriched uranium: "Today, it still has that material and we still don't know where it is," he says.
    "I think you have to assume that significant amounts of this enriched uranium still exist, so this is not over by any means," agrees David Albright, the president of the Institute for Science and International Security, which has closely tracked Iran's nuclear program for years.
    The independent assessments stand in stark contrast to congratulatory statements from the Trump Administration in the wake of the strikes: "Iran's nuclear ambitions have been obliterated," Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said during a Pentagon press conference on Sunday. "The operation President Trump planned was bold and it was brilliant."
    Both Lewis and Albright say that the strikes themselves may well have been effective, although it is difficult to say for sure. Satellite imagery shows six deep holes in the ground around Fordo, and ashy debris over much of the site. Albright believes that bunker-busters were used to try and strike at the enrichment facility's ventilation system, along with the main hall where uranium-enriching centrifuges were kept.
    "I think the purpose of the attack was to take out centrifuges and infrastructure and they feel they accomplished that," Albright says.
    But as evidence that the strikes may have missed the uranium stocks, both Albright and Lewis point to commercial satellite imagery from the days before the strike. The images show trucks at two key sites — Isfahan and Fordo. The trucks appear to be sealing tunnels that serve as entrances to underground facilities used to store uranium, possibly in anticipation of an American attack.
    image
    Both experts believe Iranians could have also moved their enriched uranium out of the sites in the run-up to the U.S. strikes: "There were trucks seen in imagery apparently hauling stuff away," Albright says. "One would assume that any enriched uranium stocks were hauled away."
    The International Atomic Energy Agency had assessed that Iran has more than 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium 235 — enough for around ten bombs, according to independent experts. That 60% enriched uranium is carried in relatively small containers that could fit easily into cars, says Albright.
    Although Albright believes the program has been substantially set back, he thinks it could still be reconstituted. He says Iran may also have thousands of uranium-enriching centrifuges that were never installed in Natanz and Fordo. It might be possible to move the uranium to another, covert facility, where it could be enriched to the required 90% for a nuclear weapon in a relatively short period of time. Even then, Iran would have to take further steps to fashion the uranium into a weapon.
    "The program has been seriously set back, but there's a lot of odds and ends," Albright says. Ultimately he thinks the only way to truly end Iran's nuclear program is through additional nuclear inspections by international monitors and cooperation from the Iranian regime, probably though some kind of diplomatic agreement.
    Lewis agrees: "Even the most brilliant bombing campaign probably is not going to get us where we want to be," he says.
  • Question about the "Eligible List" for American Funds Washington Mutual
    I've been looking through LC Bl funds that have done well over the past three years without having gorged on the Mag 7, while also having turned in good performances YTD. Ideally I'd also like them to have more than a smattering of foreign stocks (indicating more flexibility).
    If I use 20% Mag 7 as a threshold (as of a couple of weeks ago), AFIFX comes in well under the wire at 17.5%. And it typically holds over 15% foreign (per M* analysis); currently 16.5%. In contrast, AICFX misses the cut at 22.5% Mag 7 (about 30% more), and it holds just half as much in foreign stocks (8.6%).
    Viewed up close, comparing these as two LC Bl funds, they appear substantially different. Pull back the lens and likely they will be seen to have converged over time. I agree that it does seem hard to tell the funds apart without a microscope.
    Regarding eligible lists, M* observes that a few years ago AICFX reduced its target yield, and consequently could add some more growth companies to its eligible list.
    These days, ISTM that many funds still use eligible lists, though they don't call it that. Rather, they say simply that they invest in S&P 500 stocks, or in R2K stocks, or whatever. They're just outsourcing the maintenance of their eligible lists. (Well, AF creates its funds eligible lists based on their funds' objectives, so they're more tailored.)
  • Question about the "Eligible List" for American Funds Washington Mutual

    The Legal List idea is kind of outdated now. It was replaced in most jurisdictions by the Prudent Investor Rule, especially after the Uniform Prudent Investor Act was adopted by most U.S. states starting in the 1990s. As Modern Portfolio Theory became more widely accepted, fund managers moved toward broader risk-adjusted return frameworks that include a wider variety of asset classes and sectors. Obviously, many funds still follow its the style, but most don’t really talk about it anymore in their marketing or official rules. One big exception is Washington Mutual Investors.
    as far as criteria the courts used, it was largely credit quality, dividend history, established blue chippiness, avoiding high risk (junk bonds, penny stocks), needed income focus and there were even industry and sector restrictions.

    Thank you for the detail. I now have some new search terms.
    In addition to a bazillion share classes, American Funds has a lot of strategies that seem very similar to each other.

    IMO it wasn't always this way. their size has almost created this predicament. There is very little you can do when you try and build a portfolio of a few hundred stocks and are over 100 billion in size.
    in the early 90's American Mutual was all Large Value stocks and about 15% bonds. Washington Mutual was 75/25 Large Value/Large Growth and Investment co of Am was a true Large blend. Meanwhile Growth Fund was largely a Midcap blend.
    They all still have mild differences and over long periods have slightly different outcomes but in the end its still hard to figure the difference.
    One thing I did find out was that Washington Mutual used to skip alcohol and tobacco stocks. They changed in 2022 because they didn't want to get crosswise with the anti-esg crowd.
    I'm looking for equity funds for the IRA for when I decide to get back into the market. The low r-square of 83 for AMFFX does catch my eye. The capture ratios are nothing to write home about, but it did better than a lot of funds in the 2022 interest-rate Osterizer.
    RMD's are still three years off. So I'm in no hurry.
  • Fears of a Wider Mid-East War are Growing ...
    I am taking the liberty of quoting excerpts from an excellent post by richardsok that appeared on the BIG BANG! Investors site:
    "Trump's penchant for crowing victory on TV last night was unfortunate. He preens and congratulates himself too early and too much -- a habit of his. He's attempting to show his attack was a pain-free surgical strike without consequences. In truth, the mullahs do NOT have to seek peace. They still have a hundred ways to strike back.... including terror, sleeper cells, mining Hormuz Straits, Jihad eruptions from sympathetic quarters, and small scale bio/chemical "events". The American public's patience for easy-to-start wars is notoriously brief; more so after initially promising disasters in Afganistan, Iraq, Lebanon in recent memory. By itself, air power has not had great historic success in ending wars -- merely prolonging them and making people more grimly determined.
    With our debt-growth trajectory already unsustainable, another war would be economically foolhardy for the US. There are more ways than military defeat to kill a great republic. Endless wars, crippling expense and financial collapse will do the trick too. Powell was exactly correct not to reduce interest rates the other day.
    Wars have ways of surprising us all. Three long years ago it was "Ukraine is doomed! Surrender! America's fault! Putin will unleash nukes if NATO aids Zelensky!" (The posts are still preserved here on BB, I hope.) Well, well, well. The "doomed" side is still grimly hanging on and striking back harder than ever.
    Wars end only when the LOSERS say they're over. Now we see how the mullahs respond."
  • Question about the "Eligible List" for American Funds Washington Mutual
    Maybe "widows and pensioners"?
    We had Washington Mutual and many other American Funds for many years- we largely built our present economic situation on American Funds. Worked for us.
    LOL give me a break, it's a Friday in summertime!
    I am also very heavy in AF equity funds for the long-haul and they've worked well for me, too.
  • Question about the "Eligible List" for American Funds Washington Mutual
    Maybe "widows and pensioners"?
    We had Washington Mutual and many other American Funds for many years- we largely built our present economic situation on American Funds. Worked for us.
  • Question about the "Eligible List" for American Funds Washington Mutual
    The prospectus states:
    The fund has Investment Standards originally based upon criteria established by the United States District Court for the District of Columbia for determining eligibility under the Court’s Legal List procedure, which was in effect for many years. The fund has an “Eligible List” — based on the Investment Standards — of securities considered appropriate for a prudent investor seeking opportunities for income and growth of principal consistent with common stock investing.
    I am curious about the criteria used by the District Court when they were in effect. Google being what it is these days, I could spend a long time searching the internet for that answer. I am hoping someone here can please point me in the direction of more information on the topic, or otherwise provide it.
  • Fears of a Wider Mid-East War are Growing ...
    Definitely not advocating anything here but just thinking aloud...
    It seems to be coming down to the question of the underground centrifuge enrichment installation at Fordow. That might be disabled by the US with the 30,000 lb "bunker buster" bombs. Another option would be some sort of land-based assault operation by Israel.
    Iran might be severely weakened with respect to external operations right now, but isn't it likely that they would be able to make a land-based assault on Fordow so expensive in Israeli casualties as to be unacceptable?
    Unless some other state decides to ally itself militarily with Iran, isn't it just a matter of time until...
    • Israel gradually eliminates virtually all of Iran's long-range offensive capability?
    • Wouldn't that would remove major concern about Iran effectively retaliating against any state assisting Israel?
    • Wouldn't that pretty much allow the US to effectively take out Fordow without much fear of retaliation?
    I do prefer that Iran does not acquire atomic weapon capability, whatever it takes to accomplish that. Their widespread aggressive military conduct over the past twenty or so years, coupled with an inherently fanatic religious/political perspective makes their leaders unacceptably unstable and dangerous.
    I've not seen anything that suggests that the present U.S. administration was an active party or accomplice to Israel's "preemptive" attack on Iran. However I do believe that Netanyahu "played" Trump beautifully, guiding him and the U.S. to this almost inevitable very point.
    I do believe that with the possible exception of Korea, virtually every major military operation that the United States has engaged in after WW2 has been both unnecessary and morally and financially destructive to the United States. We have been financially weakened to the point where we no longer even have adequate reserve capacity to help defend Ukraine against the Russian aggression.
    The last thing that we need is another war. But Iran with atomic weapons? I don't think so.
  • Fears of a Wider Mid-East War are Growing ...
    Since the 80s, about 40 years, wars didn't influence the markets short-mid term, why would it happen now?
    The period of 2000-10 SPY lost close to 10% in 10 years, nothing to do with war.
    Several institutions suggest the next 10 year about 5-6% for stocks and 4-5% for bonds, that's great for my style of mostly unique bond funds. I will take 6% for the next 10 years.

    Just to set the record straight here there was a nearly 20% decline in 1990 during the Gulf War. Regardless I am still in the bull camp based on what occurred on April 9.

    It is true that the SP500 went down in 1990, but it was before the war.
    The Gulf War started in Mid-January 1991 and the SP500 went up over 25%.
    Surprisingly, markets are nervous before the actual war but not after the start because there are no more unknowns. It was clear the US would win the war.
    https://schrts.co/TTZMpgVH
    BTW, EIS=Israel ETF is up 5% since the beginning of the war last Friday, June 13.
    Iraq invaded Kuwait August 2 1990. Oil spiked from $15 to over $40 - hence the reason the S@P declined almost 20%. The day we began dropping bombs on Iraq in January 1991 the market surged and never looked back. How it plays out this time is anyone’s guess. Some are thinking if we enter by bombing the uncertainty will be gone and the market will surge again. Who knows.
    https://www.history.navy.mil/our-collections/art/exhibits/conflicts-and-operations/the-gulf-war-1990-1991--operation-desert-shield--desert-storm-.html
    And BTW. We already mentioned the action of the Israel stock market here the other day
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/64151/israel-stock-market-closes-at-all-time-highs#latest
  • Bill Bernstein on Navigating Uncertainty
    I think the White Coat Investor's target market is not us. Its doctors and good gravy many of them need the help in the world of investing. anectodatally i know a few that a a 800 dollar course may have saved them millions. the one i'm thinking of off hand invested all of their money starting ebay businesses. He opened 3 offices and 2 years later closed 3 offices.
  • Fears of a Wider Mid-East War are Growing ...
    Since the 80s, about 40 years, wars didn't influence the markets short-mid term, why would it happen now?
    The period of 2000-10 SPY lost close to 10% in 10 years, nothing to do with war.
    Several institutions suggest the next 10 year about 5-6% for stocks and 4-5% for bonds, that's great for my style of mostly unique bond funds. I will take 6% for the next 10 years.

    Just to set the record straight here there was a nearly 20% decline in 1990 during the Gulf War. Regardless I am still in the bull camp based on what occurred on April 9.
    It is true that the SP500 went down in 1990, but it was before the war.
    The Gulf War started in Mid-January 1991 and the SP500 went up over 25%.
    Surprisingly, markets are nervous before the actual war but not after the start because there are no more unknowns. It was clear the US would win the war.
    https://schrts.co/TTZMpgVH
    BTW, EIS=Israel ETF is up 5% since the beginning of the war last Friday, June 13.
  • Fears of a Wider Mid-East War are Growing ...
    Since the 80s, about 40 years, wars didn't influence the markets short-mid term, why would it happen now?
    The period of 2000-10 SPY lost close to 10% in 10 years, nothing to do with war.
    Several institutions suggest the next 10 year about 5-6% for stocks and 4-5% for bonds, that's great for my style of mostly unique bond funds. I will take 6% for the next 10 years.
    Just to set the record straight here there was a nearly 20% decline in 1990 during the Gulf War. Regardless I am still in the bull camp based on what occurred on April 9.
  • The unknowable: Is the U.S. stock market in a long term bubble?
    On Hedge Funds (a year old. Still may be of interest)
    Excerpt: ”JPMorgan showed current use of leverage - at roughly 2.7 times - is close to a peak reached since 2017 and higher than 98% of the time it has been tracked since then. Morgan Stanley also said leverage in the U.S. was higher only 2% of the time when tracked in the last fourteen years
    Leveraged stock ETFs with AUMs
    Leveraged bond ETFs with AUMs
    ”Best Trading Leveraged Equity Mutual Funds”
  • Fears of a Wider Mid-East War are Growing ...
    Since the 80s, about 40 years, wars didn't influence the markets short-mid term, why would it happen now?
    The period of 2000-10 SPY lost close to 10% in 10 years, nothing to do with war.
    Several institutions suggest the next 10 year about 5-6% for stocks and 4-5% for bonds, that's great for my style of mostly unique bond funds. I will take 6% for the next 10 years.
  • FOMC Statement
    I happened to watch the “stupid liar” remark on Bloomberg TV this morning. Bloomberg followed it immediately with a Liz Ann Saunders interview. What a contrast in class and decorum.
    Saunders fears that if Powell or some new Trump appointed Fed Chair aggressively pursues rate cuts, the longer end (10+ years out) might actually move higher as it did a year ago. Sure wouldn’t be good news for the housing sector.
  • Fears of a Wider Mid-East War are Growing ...
    Thanks for your input @Old_Joe. I’m hesitant to list funds I own because what’s appropriate for me might be too aggressive or too lame for another. But one I’ve watched for years and finally picked up recently is BAMBX. the “Geritol” of funds. Lewis Braham did a very nice write up on it in Barron’s in November 2020.
  • FOMC Statement
    Post-FOMC Notes
    Rates: Fed funds held at 4.25-4.50%, bank reserves rate at 4.40% (generous), discount rate at 4.50%. Treasury QT continued -$5 billion/mo, MBS QT at -$35 billion/mo.
    Inflation-expectations remain high now but should be headed down longer term. Rate increases cannot be ruled out, but they have very low probability for the next few years. Prospects of tariff-inflation are unclear. GDP growth has been distorted by abnormal imports/exports ahead of tariffs. Oil & gasoline prices have move up on Israel-Iran skirmishes, but those hikes may not stick (or, may). The US is almost self-sufficient in oil & gas, so it's less vulnerable to external disturbances.
    Labor market is solid. Wage growth is moderate. The unemployment rate of 4.2% is still near full employment. Both labor supply & demand have deteriorated, but they remain in balance. This may explain why tougher immigration hasn't affected the labor data yet. However, it's harder to find new jobs or replacement jobs.
    Housing has additional complexity in that its short- and long- term outlooks are different.
    Uncertainties have diminished but remain elevated due to tariffs, trade, immigration & geopolitics. These have caused wider dispersions in the SEPs. However, pay more attention to short-term projections.
    Effects of AI may be positive (general prosperity) or negative (deflationary). AI may augment the labor or replace it. But changes would be transformational.
    Fed is data dependent but also forward-looking, so he couldn't be tied down to what the past data showed.
    Economic data collection is important because good data benefits all - public, businesses, government. It's an investment in the future.
    US fiscal policies & big global economic changes aren't within the purview of the Fed, so it will wait & react to those as they come.
    New SEPs (summaries of economic projections) were released.
    5-yr review of the Fed about policies & communications is almost complete. These reviews have been done since 2012 - they were done annually at one time, but now every 5 yrs. It's not affected by changes in Fed leadership. Fed staffing level has been reduced as the government shrinks overall. Powell declined comment on whether he will stay on as Fed Governor after his term as Chair expires (that may determine whether the new Fed Chair after 05/2026 may be internal or external); he also declined to address President Trump's comments about him in the media.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2048/thread
  • Smart Beta Strategies
    PIMCO All Asset and PIMCO All Asset All Authority funds are just so so funds after tracking for many years.