I've been hearing this "they'll all move" crap for sixty years now with respect to California. If they want to move to Alabama or Mississippi to lower their taxes, who cares? Good luck and good riddance.

What are your thoughts on this one? I'm always skeptical of anything to good to be true...but this fund has an exceptionally narrow 52-week trading range of 10.29 to 10.36, yields 4.63%, a long and successful run before the Sound Point Fund was picked up by American Beacon, and is up 1.83% YTD. Floaters are usually fairly volatile but this fund is run to be low vol, and has lived up to that promise. With rising rate expectations, this would appear to be a holy grail, but alas there are few such beasts. Where does the danger lurk...or should we be buying with both fists.
PS. Pimco Income has been my go to for years and is still my mainstay in the bond space, but I just can't believe that its significant out performance won't mean revert at some point and so I will not increase my already full position.

Japan's central bank equity involvement has been reported previous from a few years ago.....the new involvement.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Bank-of-Japan-shows-signs-of-backpedaling-on-ETF-purchases

Howdy @willmatt72
This is just my opinion here, of course. As MJG has stated many times over the years, don't take investment suggestions from internet strangers.
My observations of the A.I. area, from a tech. background. As noted by others, one doesn't need a tech. background to observe what is taking place all of the time in the world of technology. I suspect the majority of the public, let alone many investors; don't really pay attention to what is taking place. No second thoughts about Alexa and related, nor to the fact of face or thumb print recognition for personal devices they use everyday or their Robo floor sweeper, eh?
Many here have A.I., machine learning and robotic manufacturing investments and chip companies through some broad-based equity holdings and/or technology fund holdings; which includes medical/biotech.
The big names one recognizes; Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Google, IBM, and list goes on...are obviously involved in A.I. type functions. Amazon may seem an " e-commerce" only company to most.....but, not, yes?
Amazon and other established companies continue and IMHO will continue (if it fits their business model) to acquire publicly traded companies and start ups one has never heard the name of, involved with all things tech.
Thoughts about some of this.
1. From the vast personal wealth that exists from previous involvement in technology, many of the small A.I. related companies will not become public, as they are able to be fully funded by private monies,but may be purchased by established companies, as in companies with BOTZ and related etf's.
2. Two quick examples. Want to be a para-legal? Not so sure this is a good choice today. A company is working on case procedures, background work for a form of legal proceeding, legal contracts. The human search to discover needed documents required 51-156 minutes (best and worst human discovery times), while an A.I. powered server loaded with proper data required 26 seconds. NOTE: I'm writing this example with the belief the information is correct, reference, LAWGEEX.
2a. Benevolent. A private British company. Removed my write and placed this short video link next:
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/04/19/investors-beginning-to-see-how-important-ai-can-be-for-the-uk-economy-pro.html
This easy view link below of holdings (only the top 10 of 29, unless you have a Fidelity account) for the top 10, which is 70% of this etf, BOTZ . At least for this etf, one is not investing in a bunch of start up companies. These are established companies to a global aspect, many of which, the individual investor does not have ready access to invest easily.
https://screener.fidelity.com/ftgw/etf/goto/snapshot/portfolioComposition.jhtml?symbols=BOTZ
Another A.I. example:
https://sciencetrends.com/just-4-hours-googles-ai-mastered-chess-knowledge-history/
@willmatt72 I started this write a few days ago, but schedules got in the way of posting.
I have read your recent follow-up and obviously you continue to search for validation of investment potential in this more narrow tech. sector. I personally find this area valid for investment. Yes, there will be burps here and there; not unlike broad equity and equity sector investing. Whether narrow sector investing is suitable for all portfolios obviously depends upon the individual, their overall portfolio, their temperament and study of a given area.
Our house tends more towards chunk investing versus dollar cost averaging; but this sector is valid (IMHO) to whatever method is available or of a comfort level for an individual. Heck, lots of folks here do sector investing.....Europe, Asia, growth, value, healthcare, tech., EM bonds, IG bonds, etc. Generally speaking, we're all sector investors attempting to establish a "balance".
Our other tech.: FTEC
https://screener.fidelity.com/ftgw/etf/goto/snapshot/portfolioComposition.jhtml?symbols=FTEC
Additional: ROBO composition
https://screener.fidelity.com/ftgw/etf/goto/snapshot/portfolioComposition.jhtml?symbols=ROBO
Chart overview, 1 year, selected tech.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?BOTZ,ROBO,XLK,IXN,JAGTX,FSPTX&p=5&O=011000
Disclosure: 6% of our equity exposure is BOTZ.
I'm going to dig through a few saved videos and post to your thread later. Current Westworld is good example. :) I recall watching the original movie with Yul Brenner.
Didn't proof read this......hopefully, not too messy.
Regards,
Catch

Local currency has had a tail wind as the dollar has fallen but this may change. This fund is well diversified with 28% dollar denominated debt, although the duration of 6.3 years may be a drag as interest rates rise. A better alternative for a small slice of your fixed emerging market exposure is AGEPX Frontier markets but lower duration and somewhat lower volatility

I’ve looked at annuities in the past and the pay-out looked so bleak compared to what one can reasonably expect to make in the markets than I ran away. That was at substantially lower Fed/10-year rates than today. Does anyone know if annuities now offer better payouts than a couple years ago or - better yet - whether their attractiveness will continue to improve now that interest rates are finally rising?

I also cited drop 2016-3. That's 2 years back. Really appreciate if someone can look at the chart. It is important for me to know I'm not seeing things others aren't.

Way too narrow a focus for my tastes. I’m in the “preservation” stage owing to both age and market perception.
But thanks for the question. If I really wanted to bet on AI, I might buy Amazon or a fund that owns it. Do you have an Echo device in your home? Even with our “horse & buggy” internet the things Echo can do seamlessly are just astounding (We got 2 named Echo and Alexa). Bezos seems to fling a lot of darts at various targets. Many of his new ideas fall flat. But occasionally he hits a grand slam (forgive the mixed metaphor). He did it with Kindle which dominates the market for e-readers and he’s doing it now with Echo.
If you don’t have an Echo ...
The App ...
- Responds by your calling its name
- Speaks in a very conversational tone with accurate pronunciation and quite a lot of human-like inflection.
- Quickly looks up information ranging from weather forecasts (1-7 days out), to Wikipedia based inquiries, to common statistics like the size and age of the universe or the flying time between NY and London.
- Can switch on lights, set the thermostat or play back music from Amazon at your command
This is incredible AI technology.
I think Amazon (1) will continue to improve the Echo device by adding new capabilities and (2) hit another home run in a few years with some new AI we’re not even thinking about today.
Valuation? Don’t know. I don’t trust the equity markets period at these levels. But that’s just me.

FYI: hird Avenue's Martin Whitman performed the astonishing feat of beating the stock market by a wide margin over at least twenty years.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-whitman-won-1524154702
http://www.cetusnews.com/business/cetusnews?part=SJs_ErU2G

I hold RHS in both iras, but have been shaving a bit on strong days, but still have a fair amount. Every time I think to just dump it, it rallies a bit but I know its a defensive part of my overall portfolio and has its day when least suspecting it. Ive had it for about 4 years, and 2017 and now is the first time it has not done as expected.

Haven't had a chance to read through all the responses, but if you are looking into global allocation funds, my suggestion is to have a look at First Eagle SGENX . It fits well with my risk profile with consistent performance and low downside. It is available no load with many brokers including Schwab and Fidelity. You do have to assess yourself the quality of their team as managers can leave. That's why I usually look at funds with >15 years (preferably >20) of experience, low portfolio turnover, for a core position.

Hi @Junkster
Even the default gov't. money market used for a brokerage account at Fidelity have a current yield of 1.3%. Won't beat inflation, but better than going backwards plus inflation. For those unaware, technically; when one has a Fidelity account, the account is a brokerage account from which one travels their monies to wherever. Many years ago the brokerage feature for an individual account had to be requested as an "add-on".
A benefit for us is that all invested monies are tax sheltered accounts and that we have so many choices of etf's and funds with Fidelity. So, to the buy/sell side of moving here or there does not have any current tax implications for us.
To me/us the D.C. turmoil added another layer for investments past the fundamental/technical aspects of investing and the intuition.
Add: LQD is down -.28% as of this write at 10 am, EST.
----- down -.47% at noon
----- down -.38%, close April 19
Take care,
Catch

Our house has not been without some form of bonds for 20 years.....well, I really don't recall.
The existing bond exposure has been FCBFX of recent. The graphic link below indicates the recent (1 year) of this holding. Corporate bonds have held fairly well for the near term past, but are having a difficult travel recently. Investment grade corporate bonds had a big face slap today, after having a slight recovery for a few days. February 14 found the relative strength move below 30 and recover some. But, one can see the path of the 50 and 100 day relative to the 200 day moving average. I suspect I'll find about a -2.4% YTD including today.
If we sell FCBFX tomorrow to cash, we'll be at 55% cash, 45% equity; and of this equity percentage being technology, healthcare and global sm/mid cap. The cash? Don't know where it will travel at this time.
http://schrts.co/8Kc4dr
Oh, well.....still interesting times.
Take care,
Catch

Hi @Catch22,
Thank you for the link ... short read on interest rates.
It appears that the tighenting of the yield cure presently is having an effect on most bank stock valuations as spreads narrow. If things go as anticipated (by the Fed) the long end of the yield cure should, in time, move upward with the short end as the FOMC raises interest rates at a measured pace. If not then things will generally not go well for us and perhaps a recession will be forthcoming. Currently, this has thrown cold water on my option three (bank stocks). However, I see option one (convertibles) continue upward as well as my option two (commodities). The Fed is having to print money to fund the government since it is short on tax receipts. This drives down the value of the dollar making the commodity play attractive, by my thinking. And, for convertibles, this is a soft play on the rising stock market. Generally, convertibles have a bond like floor and an equity like ceiling.
It will be interesting, for me, to see how my three interest rate options plays pan out as we move through the year. Currrently, the one I am most concerned about is bank stocks. If things materialize as the article states and as the Fed anticipates then bank stocks should come around as the long end of the yield curve rise and the yield spread increases.
If there is one thing I have learned in investing, through the years, everything does not work as planned. With this, I remain flexabile to make adjustments as I feel warranted. Since, the April 11th market close Old_Skeet's market barometer has moved from a reading of 158 indicating the S&P 500 Index was undervalued to the 17th close with a reading of 152 indicating the Index is now at fair value. We still have a ways to go on the barometer's scale to get to overvalued ... but, the way the market has moved upward the past few days it might not take long to get there.
Thanks again for making post.
Old_Skeet

I think you're talking about Amit Wadhwaney, who "retired" in 2014 and then started Moerus Capital Management in 2015. They have one fund, Moerus Worldwide Value, that hasn't done particularly well and hasn't gathered more than $55 MM in assets in its first few years but it does get a M* rating of Bronze.

@LewisBraham Point.
However, if markets start tanking I doubt Fed will inflation get out of whack.
In any case I thought GMO has been saying this for at least a couple of years now. Some day/year they will be right I suppose.

When he was still in charge, 3rd Ave. hummed. i owned TAVIX for a number of years.

FYI: eremy Grantham isn’t shaking his reputation as a perma-Bear.
His firm, Boston-based GMO, is out with its latest seven-year outlook and it doesn’t make for happy reading. GMO expects the annualized, inflation-adjusted return for U.S. stocks to be negative 4.2 percent over the period. U.S. bonds are forecast to lose 0.5 percent a year while emerging-market stocks, long a GMO favorite, are expected to climb 1.9 percent annually.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/jeremy-grantham-forecasts-rough-seven-years-for-equities--bonds-38168.html?print

Here’s the latest stats from the Bureau of Labor statistics. But I don’t know anyone that shops much who believes the govt. figures. Officially: CPI (excluding food and energy) +2.4% year-over-year. Keep in mind that price increases compound over a period of years. So, 2.4% a year for 3 years isn’t 7.2% - but something higher. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
Some would say to stick with a good low cost equity fund. That’s your best inflation hedge. However, if you’re really worried and don’t mind the potential underperformance,T. Rowe Price bills it’s long established PRNEX as an inflation hedge - but they caution that’s it’s highly cyclical and likely to underperform during economic downturns / recessions.
About 9% of my Core portfolio is considered “inflation hedge”. That portion consists of 4 funds which seem to work well together to even-out the swings. Generally, at least one of the 4 will have an “up day” when the others decline. Other than Prices’s PRAFX (the most diversified), I won’t bother to name them. The other 3 consist of a gold fund, an infrastructure fund and a real estate fund. A similar amount is held in a global bond fund - the thinking being that if the dollar weakens, as it is apt to do during inflationary periods, foreign bonds should outperform domestic. (But if the foreign/global bond fund is “hedged” against currency risk, its outperformance would be less.)
-
BTW - The cost of a phone booth seems to have skyrocketed recently! :) https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/03/14/scott-pruitts-25000-soundproof-phone-booth-it-actually-cost-more-like-43000/

Interest rates going up? I'm not convinced, yet. Well, the short end of gov't. stuff has gone up; but they're pushed by the Fed. The basis spread between the 10 and 30 year continues to contract, as well as other similar measurements used by the financial world (chart 2 below).
The questions: If the economy is doing so well, why are rates not naturally higher? Is borrowing demand full up at the corporate level? Shouldn't rates be at least 1% higher, but that there remains so much demand for U.S. gov't. issues that the rates remain low? Is the Fed. attempting to gain some breathing room to lower rates in the future, if there are problems in the financial system? Higher rates would likely cause some problems with lending for mortgages and auto loans, etc., yes? I'm trying to imagine how many folks have no idea of what loan rates where 10 years ago. How long will it take to wean many off of the "low rate tit"?
Well, you get my drift.
I have more questions than answers and they are only based upon my non-economic degree.
Our house,at this time, does not intend to purposefully engage in investments that may benefit from interest rate increases.
K. I'm out of thinking juice for this morning.
Take care,
Catch
Chart 1, May, 2006-May, 2010.......July 9, 2007 = yields packed together, the below list is + or - a few basis points at the worse; still packed tight
---30 yr yield = 5.10%
---10 yr yield = 5.03%
--- 5 yr yield = 4.93%
--- 1 yr yield = 5.03%
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?$UST30Y,$UST10Y,$UST5Y,$UST1Y&l=1843&r=2830&O=011000
Chart 2, Yield overview Jan., 1999-April 16, 2018
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?$UST30Y,$UST10Y,$UST5Y,$UST1Y&p=6&O=011000
Yields as of April 16, 2018
---30 yr yield = 3.03%
---10 yr yield = 2.83%
--- 5 yr yield = 2.69%
--- 1 yr yield = 2.12%