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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The Dukesters Fund Corner II. More portfolios
    @MikeM: I use sector funds/etfs such as utility and staples to add ballast and counterbalance some of my more aggressive funds or to correct underweighting of sectors in my overall portfolio. I had to sell the utility fund I had at ML when I transferred, since it was not offered at Fido. They did accept FRUAX when I transferred the roth, but one year earlier when I transferred the traditional ira, they did not, so bought VPU in its place. Same story on the health care funds, they would not accept PHSZX in the ira, so I bought SHSAX, but did accept it by the time i transferred the roth. I added IHI and FRHFX when I sold PJP and my biotech fund. I liked the emphasis on medical devices over biotech going forward. I was light on financials, so I added JRBFX. No, I do not think I know more than mf managers, as a matter of fact, I used to be all funds and no etfs and over the last two years did some comparisons and in some of the sectors I actually liked the etfs better. I enjoy investing and most of my portfolio is in funds Ive had for many years such as the Vanguard funds. Im sure I could consolidate further by getting rid of the funds that I cannot add to that I brought over from ML but all of the ones I kept do well.
    I basically am following the sector weightings my ML advisor set up, I just dont pay for the advice anymore, and I left ML because they have limited fund offerings. They sell very few Vanguard funds, which was my original impetus to start moving over to Fido.
    We all invest as we see fit, mine works for me, and I assume your works for you.
  • Ben Carlson: Caution Alone Is Not An Investment Strategy
    FYI: There are no easy answers in the financial markets right now because of the run-up we’ve experienced over the past number of years. The alternative — lower valuations, higher yields, more bargains, etc. — is, however, worse because that would mean everyone would have less money in their portfolios. We have to play the hand we’re dealt and anyone who tells you with certainty they know how things will work out from here is nuts. Legendary investor Howard Marks gave investors 6 options in an update this summer. In a piece I wrote for Bloomberg, I give the pros and cons of the best options.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2017/11/caution-alone-is-not-an-investment-strategy/
  • Mark Hulbert: When You Realize How Much Luck Goes Into Investing, You Might Change Your Methods
    "Regardless of whether luck accounts of 92% or 98% of investment performance, the implications are the same: Almost all attempts to beat the market will fail."
    A misleading statement because he's conflating beating the market with beating half of one's peers. Some other problems with the analysis:
    It assumes that years are fungible. By that theory, even if only giant caps are doing well in a given year, a genuinely skilled manager in large (not giant) caps should still outperform his peers. Sure. Market conditions change over time. I'm happy with a manager who does very well some years and not excessively badly other years.
    Because performance tends to bunch near the middle, tiny differences get amplified in percentile rankings. A small change in relative performance can easily shift rankings across deciles for one year. There is less instability over longer periods of time (thus highlighting another problem with focusing on year 1 vs. year 2).
    There are enough studies showing that management skill does exist to raise doubts about the approach here. The usual question is not whether skill exists, but how to identify it prior to investing. MJG alludes to this with his coin toss.
    Here's a random page pulled in searching for an example of a study on management skill:
    https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/insights/jonathan-berk-are-mutual-fund-managers-skilled-or-just-lucky
    "research [by Stanford faculty] suggests that the typical mutual fund manager is persistently skilled, and that top performers are especially good. It’s just that the market is so hypercompetitive that most investors can't benefit from the skill ..."
    Here's the working paper referenced in the article:
    http://www.nber.org/papers/w18184.pdf
  • Calpers Considers More Than Doubling Bond Allocation To 44%
    Thanks @Ted. Interesting story. Reading over PRWCX’s most recent report (June ‘17 I think) Giroux commented that if rates rose much more he’d increase his high quality longer dated bond position - mostly out of concern over equity valuations. He went further in saying he felt bonds would prosper if equities fell off a cliff. Well - rates are up. We’ll see if he followed through. Somewhat unrelated to the CALPERS story - except that both point to a growing concern about valuations among money managers. Guess a lot of us are waiting for “the jello to hit the fan”.
    Here’s where I’d appreciate more insight from those in the know: With the equity markets having roughly tripled in less than 10 years, why are so many public pension funds still in trouble? If the reported numbers are correct (particularly your own state, Illinois, Ted), than imagine the trouble those pension funds would be in had not the equity markets recovered.
    They're in trouble because they promise too much money.
  • Calpers Considers More Than Doubling Bond Allocation To 44%
    Hi @hank
    Bondland: Short duration yields/rates are higher, but.....
    http://www.reuters.com/article/usa-bonds/treasuries-u-s-2-year-note-yield-hits-another-9-year-high-flattening-continues-idUSL1N1NK0ZW
    Pension funds:
    1. Actuaries didn't anticipate the longevity of the "boomers".
    2. Perhaps many pension funds never really achieved their goal of 8-8.5% real return adjusted for inflation.
    3. At least relative to employee union pension funds; many had/have "cost of living" adjustments built into forward pension payments; including pension benefits that continue to have a "health plan", too.
    4. Under-funding of pension plans, over the years. This is a known condition for many pension funds.
    I recall over the past several years reading about existing pension funds in Michigan municipalities, though still having contributions to the fund; finding that paying the retired employee pension/health care outflows was consuming 50% of the assets of the fund.
    Example: Central States Pension Fund (Teamsters); of which, I read about several years ago. A story of, we may be able to maintain the monetary base of the fund; but ya'll will have to take a 30% decrease in your pension or the fund will crash and burn. Check some of the links in the search below, in particular to "UPS" drivers who were moved into the Central States Pension Plan. The link below is for numerous search items.....read for your choosing.
    https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=EBoLWrGHNJuzjwSX9LzgDw&q=central+states+pension+fund+news&oq=central+states+pension+fund&gs_l=psy-ab.1.1.0l10.1146.11288.0.13276.27.27.0.0.0.0.314.3286.1j25j0j1.27.0....0...1.1.64.psy-ab..0.27.3280...46j0i131k1j0i46k1j0i10k1.0.clw8X-GyJ9Q
    Side note: Although great to have a pension, the majority of pensions do not have a "cost of living" adjustment. If inflation was running at the "old" annual rate of 3%, or so; after 10 years folks would be loosing about 1/3 of their spending power from a pension, yes? I spoke with a few folks I know a number of years ago about this as a future planning tool relative to their spending habits going forward.
    Well, this is my small take on such a big world.
    The snowblower is lubricated, gas full and tested. Now waiting for April again in Michigan.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Calpers Considers More Than Doubling Bond Allocation To 44%
    Thanks @Ted. Interesting story. Reading over PRWCX’s most recent report (June ‘17 I think) Giroux commented that if rates rose much more he’d increase his high quality longer dated bond position - mostly out of concern over equity valuations. He went further in saying he felt bonds would prosper if equities fell off a cliff. Well - rates are up. We’ll see if he followed through. Somewhat unrelated to the CALPERS story - except that both point to a growing concern about valuations among money managers. Guess a lot of us are waiting for “the jello to hit the fan”.
    Here’s where I’d appreciate more insight from those in the know: With the equity markets having roughly tripled in less than 10 years, why are so many public pension funds still in trouble? If the reported numbers are correct (particularly your own state, Illinois, Ted), than imagine the trouble those pension funds would be in had not the equity markets recovered.
  • Favorite Fund Exposure for Europe?
    Anyone getting giddy on European Funds?
    Europe Heading Toward Golden Period:
    from-lost-decade-to-golden-years-euro-economy-picks-up-the-pace
    To me, a good managed fund navigates these dynamics better than a broad index. Many here are familiar with risk averse FMIJX.
    Using a "European only" fund screen shows:
    DFA's (DFCSX),
    Brown Advisory's (BAHAX) and
    Columbia's (CAEZX) all having higher risk adjusted returns (high Sharpe Ratios).
    From a fee expense angle the nod goes to (VEURX), but it is an index approach.
    PIMCO's USDollar unhedged (PPUDX) has 97% exposure to Developed EU and uses PIMCO's derivative strategies in an attempt to outperform the index. The USDollar hedged version is PPIDX.
    T. Rowe Price's (PRIDX) has International Small/Mid Cap exposure splitting itself between Europe/UK (48%) and Japan / Em Asia (45%).
    Fidelity's (FSCOX) has a similar approach with a strong convictions towards Japan (33%), Europe (32%) and the UK (19%).
    Under performers with high exposure to Europe include:
    AAIPX - 4*, (68%/24%) Greater EU / Greater Asia
    TRIGX - 3*, (64/32) Greater EU / Greater Asia
    LISOX - 3*, (56/30) Greater EU / Greater Asia
    BBHLX - 3*, (65/19) Greater EU / Greater Asia, (17%) cash
    THGIX - 2*, (62/24) Greater EU / Greater Asia
    USIFX - 4*, (62/33) Greater EU / Greater Asia
    CIVVX - 4* (65/27) Greater EU / Greater Asia
    MQIFX - 4*, (58/37) US/Greater EU
    USAWX - 5* (58/39) US/Greater EU
    IVFLX - 1* (28/65) US/Greater EU
    An interesting World Allocation fund, BBALX, which is divided pretty evenly into thirds-US Equity, Non US equities, and US Bonds- but over weights Non US equities (50/50 Greater EU/Asia) compared to the category.
  • Calpers Considers More Than Doubling Bond Allocation To 44%
    FYI: The California Public Employees’ Retirement System, the largest U.S. pension fund, is considering more than doubling its bond allocation to reduce risk and volatility as the stock bull market approaches nine years.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/calpers-considers-more-than-doubling-bond-allocation-to-44-35690.html?print
  • The Dukesters Fund Corner II. More portfolios
    Thanks for your comments guys,I expected the too many funds and too low on some questions. Will try and address your comments:
    @Art: Over the last ten years, converted quite a bit from traditional ira to roth. 2/3 of my retirement funds are now in the roth. I treat the roth a bit differently than the traditional ira, as it will be the last to be used, and it much more aggressive.
    @Pudd: I only started VWINX this year, and because it is $75 each time I want to add to it, I wait until I sell another fund or stock to fund it more. As I stated, I tend to use a barbell approach rather than allocation or balanced funds, but will add to it over time. I use the staples, utilities, and more value and moderate stock funds as ballast to my more aggressive holdings. I have two general hc funds basically because I cant add to PHSZX at Fido, it was bought when I was with ML I sold the amount I had in the traditional ira and bought SHSAX so I could add to it. I used to have a biotech and a pure pharma etf but sold those to invest in IHI and FSPHX. Regarding the reit, I only bought FRIFX on Friday, selling VNQ after 5 years. I wanted to give a managed fund a try in this sector and liked the Fido offering. It is not a spif, I like having reits as a permanenet part of the portfolio. Not expecting rates to rise very fast anyway. I like how FRIFX is a bit more diversified in its components. Ive had MINDX for over 3 years, but probably would not be buying it now but perhaps a more diversified Asian fund. I have enough diversity in my other foreign holdings that I could risk it. I know I have many funds, primarily because I could not bring some of them from ML and had to find a comparable fund. I brought the traditional ira over first, a year later the rest, so in that year, some I could not bring over, and had to sell, and some closed so had to find alternatives.
    @MikeM: I was expecting this comment from someone lol. I love small caps, but the reason they are so low is that I have many funds that have small caps in the portfolio and already at 24% small and mid.
    Hope I addressed your comments enough, and no Im not sensitive, many times I think I have too many funds myself, but there is somethng I like about each of them that I hold. And each does have a role, maybe someday this will change :)
  • David Snowball's November Commentary Is Now Available
    Some thoughts on private account composite returns: I find them useful to a degree, but one has to take them with a grain of salt and understand the nuances of a fund's individual strategy as to whether that translates well into fund world. For instance, the more illiquid the strategy--small caps, high yield bonds--the less credence I would give to the private accounts composite returns because such accounts tend to have much stickier assets and don't have to deal with the daily ebb and flows of mutual fund cash flows on brokerage platforms which can wreak havoc with illiquid strategies. The same goes for low turnover versus high turnover strategies. Low turnover translates well I think into mutual fund format while high turnover which suffers more market impact costs as assets grow in the mutual fund format can cause the manager to lose its edge. Also, concentrated versus non-concentrated. A diversified strategy can absorb more assets than a concentrated one in a mf format. Finally, and very important is the lumpiness of composite private account returns. Some funds have excellent composite returns annualized over a number of years but if you look at the calendar year returns you'll notice that much of that performance is due to one really big year while the rest of the years are mediocre or sub-par. Look at those calendar year returns on the composite and notice the outliers and ask why. Also, look at how much assets the strategy had in those big blow out years and whether the returns are repeatable in a much larger bigger mutual fund format. In other words, the key question is--is this strategy scalable?
  • David Snowball's November Commentary Is Now Available
    hmgodwin
    A concern about the Launch Alert for American Beacon Shapiro Equity Opportunities Fund: There is almost no relevant information about the fund besides the strategy seems to have done well for the past decade-plus. There is almost no one who is going to put money into such fund without knowing what is currently in it or at least some examples of what used to be in the strategy during certain time periods.
    Thanks for your comments.
    Because the funds only recently launched, we will not see relevant information until EOY 4Q2017. Most new funds will not have current information available immediately after launch, and so this is as expected.
    On the other hand, while investors may be unwilling to invest in these funds without knowing what is currently in them, ten years of detailed quarterly commentary for both private strategies are available from the firm. These commentaries have significant explanatory depth and clearly communicate specific stock positions, the reasons for owning, selling, or holding them, how discrete segments of the portfolio are constituted, and how current market conditions affect their positioning and outlook -- in other words -- we know what has been in them from detailed facts about how the strategies are being managed, not only currently, but also historically.
    This year the Observer has done three launch alerts of new funds that have begun from successful predecessor strategies. The ones from Shapiro are the fourth. The launch alerts are not recommendations to buy these funds but are intended to provide relevant background, such as composite strategies, so that we can decide what potential they may have for investment based on what is already known.
    The 3Q2017 commentary of the Shapiro composite strategies was released October 26th. While they don't discuss the new funds, they do provide information about some specific holdings replete with their usual overall depth about the strategies -- a helpful analysis in seeing how the new funds may be invested.
  • Terrible Twos? The two-year-old funds which are most out-of-step with their peers
    We thought we’d start catching up with the 130 U.S. equity funds which have passed their second anniversary but have not yet reached their third, which is when conventional trackers such as Morningstar and Lipper pick them up. As Charles has repeatedly demonstrated, the screener at MFO Premium allows you to answer odd and interesting questions. I’ll try to look at several questions over the next week, starting with “which of these new funds might be badly miscategorized?”
    That’s an important question, since investors tend to buy the (Morning)stars. In general, that’s an okay decision: five star funds rarely become stinkers, one star funds rarely become gems. Except when a fund has gotten dropped in an inappropriate peer group, so that Morningstar is looking at a banana and trying to judge it as an apple. Our two favorite examples are RiverPark Short Term High Yield (RPHYX) and Zeo Strategic Income (ZEOIX). Both are outstanding at what they do: generate low single-digit returns (say, 2-4%) with negligible volatility. And both get one star from Morningstar because they’re being benchmarked against funds with very different characteristics.
    How did we check for miscategorized funds? Simple, we get our screener to identify all U.S. equity funds that had been around for under three years. We downloaded that to Excel, eliminated funds with under two years of history then sorted them by their correlation to their peers. We found that over half of the funds were indexes or closet indexes (correlations over 95, with some “active” funds at 98). Just six funds, three active and three index, had correlations under 75.
    Cambria Value and Momentum ETF (VAMO, as in Vamoose?) has the lowest correlation (0.43) with peers of any of the two-year-olds; Lipper thinks it's a large cap value fund. Why should you care? Because a low correlation with the peer group raises the prospect that a fund has been miscategorized and it makes it very likely that any rating it receives – positive or negative – will be unreliable. One illustration of that possibility: 5 of 6 six low correlation funds trail their peer group with VAMO lagging by 14% annually. Does that mean they’re bad funds? No, it means that its strengths and weakness can’t be predicted from its peer group.
    The other two-year-olds with peer group correlations under 0.75 so far:
    HTDIX Hanlon Tactical Dividend and Momentum Fund (Lipper: Equity Income)
    PTMC Pacer Trendpilot 450 ETF (Mid-Cap Core)
    BMVIX* Baird Small/Mid Cap Value Fund (Small-Cap Core)
    PTLC Pacer Trendpilot 750 ETF (Large-Cap Core)
    FSUVX Fidelity SAI US Minimum Volatility Index Fund (Multi-Cap Core)
    Note: BMVIX is actually just shy of 2 years through October, but I want to touch on it for December commentary.
    Next up: two-year-olds leading their packs.
    David
  • Fair Game: After 20 Years, Gretchen Morgenson Retires From NY Times
    FYI: For the past 20 years or so, as a business columnist for The New York Times, I’ve had a front-row seat for bull and bear markets, scandals, crises and management mischief.
    But I am leaving The Times, and this is my last shot at Fair Game. So it seems a fitting moment to look back at what’s changed and what hasn’t in the financial world, for better or worse.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/10/business/after-20-years-of-financial-turmoil-a-columnists-last-shot.html?rref=collection/sectioncollection/business&action=click&contentCollection=business&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=sectionfront
  • Your Choice: One Mutual Fund to Hold For the Next 10-15 Years
    @msf, you're right about the fund but the question is how much reality should we suspend for a decision that isn't very realistic to begin with. There are other funds people would have chosen that are closed to new investors and picking a single fund for the next 15 years isn't really a model for diversification, admitting that some of the choices would be far better than others just in terms of being reasonably diversified. I don't think GPMCX is a bad choice and while I'd agree with you on growth vs. value these guys are GRP guys and that makes me more comfortable. The thing I'd think long and hard about is how big can the fund get before it's a lot more difficult to pursue their stated purpose. The fund was started at roughly $25 million 2 years ago and it's now $41 million according to M*. If it doubles in 7 years plus the contributions existing investors are allowed to make, does $80 or $100 million make pursuing the tiniest of the tiny a lot more difficult. They currently have 187 holdings and the average market cap of their holdings is $326 million. That's $200K on average and suggests to me they could deal with more assets as long as the float isn't a small percentage of the market caps. Nothing suggests a big problem to me in the few minutes I worked on it but that's what I'd be focused on.
  • Your Choice: One Mutual Fund to Hold For the Next 10-15 Years
    There's some ambiguity in the question. Does owning a fund for 10-15 years mean only that one doesn't make changes, or does it also imply that one is investing with the intent to draw from the fund after 10-15 years?
    jlev seems to take the former view - starting at age 31, the portfolio could still have many years to go past the 15 year target before getting tapped. In that case, a more aggressive, pure equity fund would be a reasonable choice. No disagreement on that broad perspective.
    Ted is hooked on growth funds (we've had this exchange before). Value and growth tend to take turns leading, but the alternations can be glacial. Personally, I wouldn't bet the farm on growth over the next fifteen years considering the long run that growth has already had. So in that sense I'd disagree with GPMCX.
    Note that even existing shareholders can't buy much of GPMCX. From the prospectus:
    "Fund is closed to both new and existing investors seeking to purchase shares of the Fund either directly or through third party intermediaries, subject to certain exceptions for participants in certain qualified retirement plans with an existing position in the Fund and direct shareholders with existing accounts who may purchase up to the amount of the current IRA catch up limit per year in additional shares, regardless of account type."
  • Your Choice: One Mutual Fund to Hold For the Next 10-15 Years
    @MFO Members: If your investing for the long-term,some of your money should be invested in an aggressive LCG fund and or a techonology and health care sector fund. They've had the best annualized returns over time. I can't believe some of the funds that some of you have picked.
    Regards,
    Ted
    Large cap growth, plus technology and healthcare? I agree...which is why my choice would be VHCOX. Second choice would be POAGX. (Obviously I'm a Primecap fan. Those were my top funds over the past ten years, and I see no reason to make a change).
  • The Dukester's Fund Corner II
    Hi everyone, I'm 49 for another month or so and I have 5 kids ranging in age from 2 to 17. They have 529 plans that will hopefully cover a decent portion of college costs and I keep contributing, although the youngest 2 could be worse off if the cost of education continues rising faster than inflation. I've basically been retired for almost 6 years because I took a nice package to walk away from my job in a downsizing and didn't find something new, but I'm still interested in going back to work for a decent opportunity.
    I have a couple of overriding principles for my portfolio that will help explain some of my allocations. First, I believe that emerging markets, especially in Asia, are the future. I want to be overweight. I'm also a believer in healthcare. Considering the world's demographics are getting older and the developed world's demographics even more so, I want to be overweight. In general I want to be equal weight the US and underweight developed international markets because the demographics are the worst there and they are pretty highly correlated with the US in the large cap space. If I want to make currency bets, which I've done before, I'd rather do it in the futures market. I want most of my exposure to developed international markets to be small cap. Finally, other than healthcare, I'm generally sector agnostic. I don't target any specific allocations but I do monitor them compared to the S&P 500 to make sure I know and am comfortable with the opinions my sector allocations are expressing.
    My portfolio currently has two parts and a third part is being reduced. The first is a collection of funds that I rebalance or adjust at irregular intervals but mostly doesn't change. The second is what I'd call a modified risk parity portfolio of my own making that trades monthly based mostly on momentum. The part being reduced is made up of individual stocks that I picked based on a newsletter I used to subscribe to or stocks that M* identified as undervalued. That didn't work very well for me. The stocks currently represent about 12.5%. I plan to keep 2 stocks, which are uranium stocks that I'm still comfortable/happy with. They make up 6% of my portfolio and will stay, so a little less than half of my total stocks.
    I normally don't count cash as part of my portfolio except in my IRA and the cash there represents 3% of what I consider my portfolio.
    Mutual funds
    I'll indicate the current allocation as well as my planned allocation once I eliminate the stocks I hold with a comment or two where relevant.
    GPIIX 9.65--->8.5 I would have preferred Global Opportunities to International Opportunities but the original intention was to pair International with their intended US fund, which hasn't come yet, and to manage the allocation myself. At the time I wasn't thinking about hard closes that make managing an allocation difficult so if I ever had the chance to switch this for GPGIX I would.
    POAGX 8.75--->8.5
    GPEIX 7.75--->8.5
    SBIO 3--->2
    HQL 2.9--->2
    OBIOX 2.75--->3.5
    MAPIX 2.5--->2
    PRHSX 2.25--->2
    IWIRX 2.15--->2
    MEASX 1.6--->2
    QUSOX 1.45--->2
    ARTGX 1.4--->0 I don't dislike the fund, just decided I'd prefer OAKWX
    MSCFX 1.4--->2
    OAKWX 1.35--->2
    PRNHX 1.35--->2
    TVRVX 1.3--->2
    DSEEX 1.3--->2
    PTSGX 1.3--->1
    SFGIX 1.3--->2
    FSCRX 1.25--->0 This fund was great for me but with Chuck Myers leaving I started switching to the Mairs & Power fund.
    KGGAX 1.2--->2
    GPMCX 0.8--->2 This won't happen by year-end because of the limited annual contributions they allow but I'll get there.
    Trading
    The holdings currently make up 25.7% of my portfolio and includes EWX, IJH, IJK and VBR. I expect it will be 34% at year-end. I started this approach 18 months ago because I was concerned about valuations and wanted something that would hopefully protect me when things eventually go south but hopefully participate in most of the upside as long as it continues.
    I track my overall portfolio as well as each "bucket" against 12 benchmarks on a monthly basis. Broadly speaking those benchmarks include a few all equity options (like the S&P 500 and a total world etf), a few balanced options that are all 60/40 but with different equity options, and a few risk parity portfolios like @hank's Permanent Portfolio, Faber's Ivy Portfolio and David Swenson's Yale portfolio.
    For the individual funds I mostly watch category rankings. I do see 1, 3, 5 and 10 year returns in my M* portfolio but I don't use them to make any decisions. I don't change funds very much but manager changes usually worry me and I occasionally change for something I believe will be better. For instance, I used to hold a number of Wasatch funds that I eliminated and bought Grandeur Peak funds and I'm replacing FSCRX with MSCFX because of a manager change.
    There are a few funds I'd be happy to own if they open again one day. They are VVPSX and TDVFX. I know I can buy the Towle Fund direct and I may do that at some point but I'd prefer to keep it in my brokerage account if possible. As mentioned I'll buy Grandeur Peak's US fund whenever it launches.
    A portfolio X-ray will show you that I'm around 80% small and mid cap stocks. I understand most people would be uncomfortable with that. One third of that is the risk parity trading I do and that will be into other asset classes when the momentum changes. Nonetheless, I've never been uncomfortable with volatility and I don't tend to make emotional decisions. The risk parity idea was specifically designed to make me comfortable with whatever volatility occurs in the mutual funds. X-ray will also show I'm a little more than 20% emerging markets and overweight healthcare but I'll be pretty close to equal weight healthcare at year-end. This is something I want to keep an eye on because I don't want to end up underweight healthcare. I'm actually underweight the US at about 43-44% but that's okay for now because I'm somewhat, less than many but still somewhat concerned about valuations in the US. And I'm significantly underweight developed international markets except for Asia. I think that's mostly because M* calls Taiwan and South Korea developed while MSCI doesn't.
    Oh, one last thing, how could I forget, I have no bonds and haven't for a few years. Friends have argued that I either should already regret that or I certainly will in the future. They may be right but I'm well aware of the bet I'm making and I'm more concerned now about getting hurt in bonds than hurt in equities. Time will tell.
    Thanks in advance for your feedback.
    Jim
  • The Dukesters Fund Corner II. More portfolios
    Whew. This started out as a simple exercise and will try and provide commentary on my portfolio in addition to allocations and percentages. I have three portfolios. First one , is a taxable account which has a majority of the bond allocation at 80%, which includes 2 munis I am holding til maturity, also have two stocks in that portfolio, one of which I am getting ready to sell for its gains. That portfolio is 27% of my total. The other two are a traditional ira and a roth, and the roth is the larger of the two. You will notice some duplications in fund characteristics, the result of my moving from Merrill Lynch last year to Fidelity. Some positions I could not add to since they are institutional funds, so had to add similar funds from another fund company. I take a barbell approach to the total, balancing aggressive funds with conservative ones. More people seem to use balanced funds, I chose this method. That said, I am 68% equities, 32% bonds and cash, and 66 and retired. SS provides me about 1/3 of my expenses, rest comes from taxable account, which will be the first to be depleted, but I do have to start taking from the ira in four years. I am trying to follow the basic set up that Pudd used, adding my own tweaks. This reflects iras only. I threw in etfs into the mix. Here goes:
    Large and multi cap:
    MSEGX 1.5%
    POGRX 2.6%
    RSP 1.0%
    SMGIX 6.4%
    TWEIX 2.5%
    VIG 3.0%
    VDIGX 6.5%
    VOO 5.6%
    VPCCX 2.9%
    VWINX 2.7%
    Sector funds
    CMTFX 3.1%
    PHSZX 1.4%
    FRUAX 1.5%
    FSPHX 1.3%
    IHI 2.0%
    JRBFX 1.3%
    PRGTX 6.2%
    RHS 3.7%
    SHSAX 1.4%
    VPU 2.0%
    FRIFX 2.9%
    Small-midcap
    CCASX 1%
    SMDV 1%
    UBVSX 1.3%
    Global non sector funds (with a minimum of 30% foreign)
    APDGX 3.0%
    IWIRX 2.6%
    Foreign
    FMIJX 4.5%
    SIGIX 4.9%
    GSIHX 1.8%
    OSMYX 2.8%
    MINDX 2.5%
    Stocks
    MMM 2.1%
    TRV 1.2%
    Bonds and cash are 9.6% of total iras, since taxable portfolio has the high bond allocation. I use PONDX, PYACX, CPXAX, GIBIX.
    According to Fidelity, in the iras, I am 76% large cap, 17% mid cap, 7% small. The above small cap funds I have do not reflect total small cap exposure since I have small cap stocks in a number of funds that are multi cap. I usually have more stocks, and use them more for trading than investment.
    Im sure I have many more funds and etfs than most, but this is cut down from earlier this year :) All comments welcome, good and bad.
  • The Dukesters Fund Corner II. More portfolios
    Skeet, I used to have M-Star's premium and used that for x-rays but got tired of paying that yearly cost. Now days I don't bother with the x-ray. I do lean to value funds and small/mid caps but that has not been the place to be the last few years. My biggest positions are in the 401 and I don't have many funds available that I am not using. VIGRX and ODMAX are available and I have used them in the past. Just sold both of these earlier this year. I am in the process of reducing small positions with a goal of 5% or more per fund. Allocation just happened, not planned. When you have go anywhere funds then that is what you get. I have made some bad choices, like selling EM to soon, so no tips for others from me other than save as much as you can.
  • The Dukesters Fund Corner II. More portfolios
    Puddnhead, I will start a new thread for my portfolio.
    I am 59, married(3rd time) with plans to retire in 3 years. I will have 40+ years as an IBEW member and have a defined benefit along with a 401 at the workplace. The DB will pay about $150/month per year of service. The exes will get some of that. I also have a small ROTH and IRA. Live in the Midwest. No mortgage. No kids but recent wife has 2 so I inherited grandkids. Portfolio percentages are rounded up or down for convenience. The smaller %'s are in the ROTH and IRA. My wife also has a 401 with DFA and a ROTH. I am not including these monies but when you put it all together and add SS I should have enough money to live on and take the yearly vacation to Florida or somewhere warm, so why do I fret over money spent on kids and grandkids? I guess one of us needs to be conservative while the other spends. Probably like that in most marriages.
    PTTDX-22%
    Cash-11%
    OARIX-11%
    PCVAX-10%
    CHTTX-10%
    OARBX-7%
    VFINX-6%
    AMRMX-5%
    FPACX-4%
    EVGBX-3%
    FARNX-3%
    IVWIX-2%
    ARTGX-2%
    GPROX-2%
    VVPSX-2%