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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • What do you think of the Fairholme Fund? (FAIRX) Any good concentrated alternatives?
    AKREX/AKRIX: my all time favorite. Chuck Akre is a getting up there in years but he hasn't disappointed. His fund typically is called 'Growth' but he's a Value Manager.
  • Recommend any long short funds with good track record?
    The AQR long short equity fund QLEIX looks pretty good but it is closed and just has a 3 year history.
    Not that it matters, since it's not available to new investors, but it's been around 4 1/2 years and will hit 5 in July. (Even some L/S funds without a long history have been around for a few short weak periods for equities, e.g., a few months in 2014 and 2015, 2015 overall, and Jan. 2016, for peeks into down-market performance. None of those were deep and sustained like 2007-2008, of course, but the GR was back far enough that many funds of all kinds with that extensive a record have changed managers/strategies or have had big increases in AUM that have likely affected strategy and performance since.)
    That Calamos fund (CPLSX) looks interesting. So many different strategies within long-short ...
  • Recommend any long short funds with good track record?
    Calamos has an interesting looking fund that was originally a hedge fund that was converted to a mutual fund a few years ago. It has beaten the s&p 500 over the past ten years. Here is a link to a Barron profile of the fund - http://webreprints.djreprints.com/54361.pdf?utm_source=calamoscom&utm_medium=site&utm_campaign=barrons1122
  • Looking for less volatile Intl fund alternative to OAKIX
    "[TBGVX] hedges back to the dollar. The dollar is getting beat up, in 2017 and into 2018."
    I'm glad you said that. I'm beginning to sound like a broken record when I point out hedging with some funds (posts mentioning VMVFX, FMIJX). Tweedy, Browne does also have an unhedged version, TBCUX.
    After Tweedy, Browne spent years saying how wonderful hedging was (that they could focus on what they knew, stock selection), they came out with an unhedged version of their fund. Call me a cynic, but I viewed that as selling out their investing principles for AUM. Consistent with their charging very high ERs.
  • Buy -- Sell -- Ponder -- January 2018
    Hi guys!
    Last week, in The Economist, they had a piece on India.....the great lie of the middle class in India. It's not China of 20 years ago. E-commerce in India in 2017 was about that in China for a week. US companies can't make any money there. GDP per person is $1700 --- and 80% of the people make less. 3% of the population own these 5 things: car or scooter, TV, computer, A/C or refrigerator. Top 1% make $20,000 --- good paying jobs are thin. Education is very poor.....1 in 9 is illiterate. Most US companies aren't selling basics, so they can't make money. Slick said a while back India was not a buy. From what I read, good call!
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • Buy -- Sell -- Ponder -- January 2018
    EMs (bonds and stocks) are highly cyclical. Conventional wisdom over the last 40-50 years has been that EM stocks will outpace more modernized economies over the long haul. Sir John Templeton used to make that point. However, during the decade or so that I owned his funds, his more sedate TEMWX did much better than the EM heavy TEGOX, which had higher fees and a lot more volatility.
    I don’t think anyone really knows. At my age I’d maybe play them if they looked beaten up enough to catch a nice bounce. But I don’t want to own EM on a protracted basis - particularly the stocks, which can drop 30-40% before you can say “ouch”.
  • Buy -- Sell -- Ponder -- January 2018
    Understood. I've never been able to determine whether the EM bond risk is worth it. So I stuck with PRSNX as a global bond fund only.

    I'd say the risk (of investing in EM bonds) has been worth it. Over the course of 7+ years, PREMX has averaged a bit over 6 cents per share, per month. It's up to each of us, anyhow to gauge our risk tolerance. PRSNX is offering me over 3 cents per month. Helluva lot better than 10-year Treasuries or CDs in the bank. But a credit union is really the way to go, if you ask me. ;)
  • Fund Focus: Franklin Rising Dividends Fund
    I used WellsTrade a long time ago to buy FT Advisor shares. Then years ago they severely limited the funds you could buy, going from one of the most open platforms to one of the more limited ones. They also overhauled their website, making it difficult if not impossible to even figure out what was available. And they imposed the highest exit fee I've seen (I think it was $95). Nevertheless I left.
    The only off brand brokerage that I think I was happy with was Scudder. For a brief time, 1998-1999 (and with a sufficiently high balance) they provided free trades on all the funds they sold, and as I only vaguely recall, fine service. "Preferred Investment Plus" for taxable accounts, "Retirement Plus" for retirement accounts. Then Zurich/Kemper/Scudder moved the whole operation to DLJDirect, effectively closing it down.
  • Fund Focus: Franklin Rising Dividends Fund
    Check out the Advisor class shares at Firstrade. Will include a T/F.
    Shhh. That's the only way I know to get cheaper FT Advisor class shares - they used to be available through other second tier brokerages. I've been wondering for years when FT would shut down this channel too. More so now that A shares of most funds are being sold NTF through lots of brokerages.
  • Buy -- Sell -- Ponder -- January 2018
    Hello, @Catch22: The three I've zeroed-in on are: PTIAX, TUHYX and RPIHX, though the latter is "global," not strictly domestic. ...PTIAX is mostly MBS. ... TUHYX is corporate junk. ...RPIHX is corporates, with just a bit of bank loans. What they spit-out and distribute to shareholders right now is considerably higher than the monthly div. from PRSNX.
    I bought (EM) PREMX in 2010, late for the 2009 go-go-full steam ahead party in EM bonds. I bought initially at $13.26, and have never seen PREMX at $13.26 again. But I've reinvested everything, and along the way, I pulled a huge chunk out to re-deploy into a more normal diversified portfolio. PREMX has made serious money for me, despite the share price remaining below my initial purchase-price. I added a bit to it after end-of-year 2017 cap gains and dividends in my other TRP funds. And PREMX has not disastrously imploded on account of the Venezuela holdings.
    ...When share price sinks, yield rises, I understand. I see that PRSNX holds bonds in many cases in places like DEVELOPED Europe, where bonds are yielding less than 1%. I'd like to get more than PRSNX is offering. My timing might be all wrong, but timing the market is a thing I never tried to do. I started investing in 2003, and do not play around much with my portfolio--- though the current portf. is quite different from the way it looked 15 years ago.
    Yield:
    RPIHX 5.78
    TUHYX 4.75 (30-day)
    PTIAX 5.51
    PRSNX 3.41
    I'm not worried at all about finding a bond fund to replace PRSNX which is of a similar sort.
  • Don’t Chase High Utility Yields
    Good morning @MikeM,
    Thank you for your inquiry.
    Old_Skeet has many investment strategies at play within his well diverisfied portfolio.
    Currently, the Compass Strategy (which I'm thinking you are referencing) is momentum based strategy found in the growth area of the portfolio and picks a spiff hound form the lead pack to invest in. I have a sleeve within the growth area that contains this strategy called ... the spiff sleeve ... where my special investment positions are found.
    In other parts of the portfolio are where some value type strategies are found. The compass can be used as an aid in locating these (out of favor sectors) as well.
    Many years ago, back in my Scouting days is where I learned of the value of a compass in finding my way. Today, I still use a compass (of sorts) in finding investing opportunity within the market. In addition, I learned that a two man canoe could make greater distant over a one man canoe. And, a three man canoe was even better. With this, this is why most of my investment sleeves have at least three members (some more). This is because when one becomes tired and begins to falter then there are the other two (or more in some cases) that can offer suppport and continue to propel the sleeve.
    Were you a Scout?
  • Consuelo Mack's WealthTrack : Guest Bill Miller: Disruptive Technology Innovations
    FYI: Miller Value Partners’ Bill Miller holds the record for being the only mutual fund manager to beat the market for 15 years in a row. One way he did it is by investing in new technologies that the Wall Street establishment thought were crazy at the time – Amazon, Google, and Facebook among them. His latest “crazy” idea: Bitcoin.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://wealthtrack.com/bill-miller-on-investing-in-disruptive-technologies-including-bitcoin/
    M* Snapshot LGOAX:
    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/LGOAX/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot LOGAX:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/lgoax
    LGOAX Is Ranked #43 In The (MCB) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/mid-cap-blend/miller-opportunity-trust/lgoax
  • Buy -- Sell -- Ponder -- January 2018
    Hello.
    This is Old_Skeet’s weekly barometer report for the weekending January 19, 2018.
    Last week I reported that the 500 Index was extermely overbought with a barometer reading of 128. This week the reading is found to be the same at 128 and, with this, the Index remains extremely overbought as scored by the metrics found in the barometer. If the reading should drop much lower it will be off the scale. Generally, a higher barometer reading indicates there is more investment value in the Index over a lower reading.
    For the week short interest for SPY is found to be 1.8 days to cover.
    In review of the 500 Index compass the lead pack remains XLE (energy), XLF (financials) & XLY (consumer discretionary). Within the lead pack my spiff hound remains XLY and has for sometime as the consumer continues to spend. The bogey hound for this compass is EQL.
    In review of the global compass the lead pack consists of GSP (commodities), EEM (emerging markets) & EWJ (Japan). Last week EEM had pulled back a bit but has now regained its momentum and edges out VTI (domestic stocks) for third place. Within the lead pack my spiff hound remains GSP and has for sometime as good demand for commodities continues. The bogey hound for this compass is VT.
    This investment strategy was derived from a betting strategy I used years back at the dog track. The betting strategy was that I’d bet three dogs to either win, place or show during the early to mid races. This strategy provided a number of ways to have a dog (or dogs) be in the money. And, for me, this resulted in some good winnings as I had a prety good system that aided me in picking some good opportunity dogs for a wager.
    Thanks for stopping by and reading.
    I wish all … “Good Investing.”
    Old_Skeet
  • Buy -- Sell -- Ponder -- January 2018
    Took some distributions from HQL accumulated in my Roth in last few years and added to ISMRX and GPGOX. In a taxable account, I used proceeds from XMLV to buy RYT.
  • Have you lost confidence in FMIJX/FMIYX, S-T or L-T?
    BrianW no disrespect taken; you are 100% accurate. I chose FMIJX for a reason several years ago and that reason has not changed, nor have my goals or needs.
    Thank you for your perspective and wise words!! Matt
  • Have you lost confidence in FMIJX/FMIYX, S-T or L-T?
    PRESSmUP thank you for the read. They appear to be very pessimistic and cautious near-term which is ok, it's their job to do what they feel is best for the L-T, i get that.
    I just hope that the SIGNIFICANT under-performance does not continue thru 2018 (and beyond). As you mentioned, the previous 3 years were outstanding, a reversal of that performance (i.e. 2017) would make that moot and FMIJX/FMIYX just another fund.
    I do not think that will happen, but I am " hedging" and have reduced my investment to just over 9% and as slick mentioned (thx), I am dipping my toe into a growth oriented International fund.
    Thanks everyone for your comments, please continue the conversation!!! Matt
  • Buy -- Sell -- Ponder -- January 2018
    The odds of getting a call right near term are very small. Even greatly overvalued assets tend to rise far above their reasonable valuation points - for years in some cases. Same process happens on the way down. I think it’s normal psychology to expect to see a “buy” or “sell” prove ourself right. To some extent we delude ourselves into thinking we excercise some control over the markets. Of course no one really believes that. Just part of our make-up.
    To make @mcmarasco feel better, it’s entirely possible to have made the “right” decision only to have irrational markets behave in an entirely contrary fashion.
  • Have you lost confidence in FMIJX/FMIYX, S-T or L-T?
    As with VMNFX, FMIJX is currency hedged. This has made a big difference in the past few years, as the dollar has gone from soaring in 2016 to diving in 2017.
    If what you want is a smoother ride (i.e. one where currency is taken out of the equation), these were and are fine funds. If you want full exposure including currency volatility, buy something else.
    Here's a chart showing these two funds against the foreign large blend average. While the two funds occasionally diverge (as would be expected, with one foreign one global), you can see how they take off relative to foreign large blend in 2016, and then foreign large blend nearly catches up in the subsequent year.
    Morningstar comparison chart.
  • Jason Zweig: How To Lose 93% Of Your Money… And Be Happy About It
    These funds do serve a purpose but as always you have to be right twice when to get in and when to get out. Most people are not right that many times in a row.
    In a taxable account with large gains, selling half of your equity position even before a bear market can be very expensive. Everyone knows that over a prolonged period equities will rise again, but each individual has to decide what their holding period is. AAII says 4 years will make you whole again. But that does not account for 1929-1933
    In normal times bonds will work
    http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2018/01/even-with-low-returns-bonds-still-have-their-use/
    But with interest rates this low there may not be much protection
    It is not easy
  • Gundlach, Goldman Sound Warning On Emerging-Market Stock Rally
    FYI: Plenty of things could upend the two-year rally in emerging-market equities. Yet no one seems to agree on just what they are.
    Sure, the bulls abound. Fiera Capital Corp., the Montreal money manager that oversees $123 billion, expects attractive returns for several more years. Research Affiliates, a sub-adviser to such firms as Pacific Investment Management Co., calls emerging markets the " trade of a decade."
    Yet contrarians are sounding the alarm, with Morgan Stanley the latest, saying that emerging equities may see a repeat of the year 2000, which began well and ended with a 32 percent drop. Here are five potential causes for concern:
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/gundlach--goldman-sound-warning-on-emerging-market-stock-rally-36653.html?print