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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Tariffs
    A wee bit of Econ 101 for the less informed.
    Tariffs have always and will always have a direct effect on national and world economies. And, taking it slow here, national and world economies have a direct effect on world financial markets. (Links supporting these facts below.)
    If they are significant enough, or if they are so insanely ridiculous that it appears they were pulled out of a punch bowl, they will have a HUGE effect on world stock, bond and FX markets. (See US & world market activity, 04/03/25-Current.)
    https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7255316/
    Excerpt:
    The findings suggest that tariffs have a detrimental effect on output, with the negative effect larger for higher tariff increases and persisting over time, at least over the next four years or so. The residualized growth tends to be in negative territory in all four years following an increase in protectionism. For example, after the second year, the residualized output growth is −0.4/−0.8 for one/three standard deviation(s) increases in tariffs, respectively. After four years, tariff increases are associated with an annual negative output growth of 1.5 percent when tariff increase is above three standard deviations.
    https://www.epi.org/publication/tariffs-everything-you-need-to-know-but-were-afraid-to-ask/
    Excerpt:
    These uses are not trivial: Tariffs are absolutely a key tool of smart industrial and trade policy. But on their own, tariffs cannot and should not be the centerpiece of a national economic strategy. Doing so would represent a gross overuse of a tool for a task it’s not suited for and would cause damage to the wider economy.
    Reducing damaging trade deficits cannot be achieved solely through trade policy—except in the extreme case where trade policy measures are so severe that they essentially shut down all international trade, which would cause radical disruption to the U.S. economy. Instead, more balanced trade will only result from macroeconomic policies that are consistent with lower trade deficits—including exchange rate management to realign an overvalued U.S. dollar and a reasonable mix of fiscal and monetary policies.
    https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/tariffs-101-what-are-they-and-how-do-they-work/
    Pretty basic stuff for anyone who has ever extended their financial knowledge base as far as Econ 101.
  • Stagflation - "This Economic Paradox Nearly Took Down Three Presidents.."
    @Sven. Since 28 March 2025, I'm liking TBills, CDs, IG Bonds. I do think that since inflation will not be demand driven, Fed may step in down the road. That said, IG Bonds have not been the place to be for years. Hopes of lower rates have just not materialized.
    IG Corporate Bonds now paying 5-6% over10-20 years, callable though.
    Fun fact. In May 2007, height of market back then, I bought my retirement home putting 20% down and took a 30-year fixed mortgage paying 6.5%! So, I think years of ZIRP since have probably distorted my perspective on rates.
  • Death-Crosses
    Regarding all the fuss about FD, I don't find anything unusual about his market exit. He has often moved out of the market quickly during market turmoil. Back when both FD and I invested similarly in bond oefs, he would often let me know he was selling before I did, but we have been going down very different investing tracks for the last several years. He hasn't communicated to me in a long time about his investing decisions, but his statements on this thread seem very consistent with how he has handled past market turmoil periods.
  • Chemical Industry Asks Trump for Exemption From Pollution Limits
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The New York Times:
    The Biden-era limits were designed to reduce emissions of toxic pollutants, including a cancer-causing ingredient used in antifreeze and plastics.
    Two chemical industry groups are asking President Trump for a complete exemption to free their factories from new limits on hazardous air pollution. Under a new rule finalized by the Biden administration last year, chemical plants would soon be required to monitor and reduce emissions of toxic pollutants, like ethylene oxide, a cancer-causing ingredient used in antifreeze and plastics.
    Now the two groups, the American Chemistry Council and the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, which represent the nation’s major chemical companies, are seeking a temporary presidential waiver for all polluters to the rule. The request came after the E.P.A. told companies last month that they could apply for waivers to major clean-air rules by emailing the agency. The E.P.A. pointed to a section of the Clean Air Act that enables the president to temporarily exempt industrial facilities from new rules if the technology required to meet those rules isn’t available, and if it’s in the interest of national security.
    Under Mr. Trump, the E.P.A. has moved to roll back many of the same rules. That could mean that companies granted a temporary exemption now would ultimately never have to comply with the new rules.
    The Biden-era rule had been part of that administration’s effort to address the disproportionate effect of environmental hazards facing communities near chemical plants. These are often low-income, predominantly Black or Latino neighborhoods with elevated rates of asthma, cancer and other health problems. It updates several regulations governing emissions from chemical plants, some of which have not been tightened in nearly 20 years, and applies to more than 200 chemical facilities across Texas and Louisiana, as well as the Ohio River Valley and West Virginia — all home to major chemical hubs.
    The rule had for the first time considered the cumulative effects of multiple chemical plants on communities in such hubs, rather than simply the effect of a single source of pollution. Companies would be required to rigorously tighten controls and processes to limit chemical emissions. They would also be required to monitor smokestacks and vents at the manufacturing facilities, while also checking whether chemicals are present at the property line of a plant. That kind of fence-line monitoring is similar to those required of petroleum refineries.
    But the chemical industry had raised various concerns about the new restrictions, particularly on ethylene oxide, saying it was used in a variety of products like batteries for electric vehicles. It also is essential to sterilizing medical equipment, according to the Food and Drug Administration. In a statement on Saturday, Chet Thompson, chief executive of American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, called the Biden-era rule “unlawful, unreasonable and technologically unachievable,” adding that it put “critical U.S. manufacturing operations at risk.”
    The latest move is part of an effort by the Trump administration to steer the E.P.A. away from its original role of environmental protection and regulation. Mr. Zeldin has described the agency’s new mission as lowering the cost of purchasing cars, heating homes and running businesses, as well as encouraging American energy dominance. Last month, the administration dropped a federal lawsuit against a chemical manufacturer accused of releasing high levels of chloroprene, a likely carcinogen, from a plant in Louisiana.
    The E.P.A. has said it plans to slash jobs, eliminate its scientific research arm and ensure that enforcement actions don’t interfere with energy production. It also aims to reduce the agency’s overall budget by 65 percent. The Trump administration has also placed former lobbyists and lawyers for the oil, gas and chemical industries in senior positions at the agency.

    Comment: This situation actually is not all that important, unless of course you happen to live near these chemical plant operations. If that should be the case, then the "ONLY THE WEAK WILL FAIL" option applies, so there's really no problem anyway.
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    Here’s what Fido’s analytics pulled up for me this morning.
    Domestic Stock 16%
    Foreign Stock 24%
    Bonds 26%
    Short Term 22%
    Other 11%
    After 2 days buying I’ve moved the equity position from 35% to 40%. The “other” remained stable at 11%. Most of that is in a real assets fund. Somewhat more aggressive than those numbers however, because a good chunk is in CEFs which employ leverage. Friday was my worst day in years, off 3.22% - slightly less than what PRWCX lost (- 3.37%).
    I’m not someone looking for positive annual returns. Willing to lose money over shorter periods (1-3 years) as long as I have confidence in what I own. I believe that over 3-5 years I’ll do better than cash. Investing entails risk. All the fund prospectuses tell you that. @Sven is correct that we’re all different in our needs, expectations, dispositions and past experiences.
    Question for the members: What do you think David Giroux was buying Friday?
  • Death-Crosses
    stillers
    @linter, thanks for your research and post, providing conclusive evidence of what most of us already knew, Teched1000 is a fraud.
    His reply, with two links to nowhere (sic) and his rambling psycho-babble post about general investment BS and references back to 2020 and 2022 (Say what?) are testament to it. You don't have to have 35+ years of audit experience to know that 500+ word responses about everything but the simple question that was posed/issue that was raised indicate, well, in technical accounting terms, bullshit.
    First, the 500+ words were my opinion about the markets. If you don't like it move on.
    Second, you just crossed the line by saying "fraud, sic, psycho-babble, general investment BS" and should be banned from this site.
    Third,I urged people to look at the links that were provided and see the truth.
    But wait, stillers, the seeker of truth posted under 4 different names on different sites.
    Karen/ Stillers / Arriba / Albie. Any respectable person uses the same one.
    The last name was Karen. He claimed that he was married to a financial advisor and then continued to post dozens of opinions that supposedly came from his husband while they were his own.
    When I revealed it and posted about it, he disappeared.
    image
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly+ (2025/Q1–April 7, 2025)
    Stick to your portfolio allocations and don’t do anything rash during the market turmoil. Keep the money you may need in 1-2 years in “cash” (money-market funds, ultra-short-term bond funds, T-Bills, high-yield savings accounts, short-term CDs
    Great reminder. We are happy to be there already. Thank you @yogobb for the summary. Look like I have homework this evening.
  • Death-Crosses
    A rare look at my account because of what was written about me.
    I don't deny or confirm anything more. Too much hassle and time-consuming.
    2 attachments (using a snipping tool) from my biggest account directly from Schwab. The other accounts are similar. You can clearly see what I have done; it's the blue line. MM is over 99%.
    image image
    Since I trade only/mostly bond funds for years, I can hold longer and get out in time.
    My 3 best ideas funds in 2025 (HOSIX,NRDCX,CBYYX) were doing OK but nothing much.
    I never invested directly in treasury funds; I play it thru HY Munis. Both categories volatility have been too high and why I missed it. That is not a concern because I have enough. My main goals are very low SD, positive yearly performance, and very small losses.
    So, what do I see?
    First, the big picture. Is it unique? Yes. Global tariffs are unique. Trump was serious all along. Is risk elevated? Yes, for a while already.
    The VIX absolute number is important, but the speed is too. Most risky categories are down = another verification.
    Bonds: high-rated bonds went up; this is good; it worked this time. Even HY munis did OK. They went up Thur and Fri. The MOVE (bond volatility) also moved very quickly to signal a sell.Another stress sign is RPHIX, it was down on Friday -0.21%.
    Second, T/A was verified. We had a small bump in stocks, but it was a short-term one. I mostly use uptrends to verify buys or a switch. After a big meltdown, I use T/A to enter back. IMO, ceilings and floors/support don't make sense because both keep breaking; which is the real true one? Other T/A indicators are useless in predicting the future.
    Markets didn't make sense to me for several weeks. When it happens, I sell because very low SD and capital conservation are my primary goals. My biggest "mistake" was that I thought that rates would not go down that much; after all, inflation isn't low enough, and new jobs are still doing OK. The Fed chair, Powell, reiterated it too with no rate cuts yet.
    There is no way to know how much more. Selling early or based on an absolute % are my preferred methods because you are late after it starts going down. There is no way to know if it will go 8-10% or 20+%.
    Research shows that missing the worst days is better than missing the good days, and most of these good days come after a big dive. See https://fd1000.freeforums.net/thread/14/missing-worse-best-days
    BTW, I always sell a huge % early, but I buy back very quickly when my big picture risk + other indicators signal that.
    See 2/29/2020
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/55299/bond-mutual-funds-analysis-act-2/p2
    See March 2022
    https://big-bang-investors.proboards.com/thread/1262/make-sense
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    Even though I had cash to invest during the pandemic, I hesitated - caught between wanting to exit or take a chance to buy while the market was low. I chose to hold what I had and invested only small amounts at the edges, kicking myself later for the missed opportunity.
    So even though this time *may be different* I deployed dry powder at the edges on both Thursday and Friday, keeping enough in reserve to see us through the next 2-3 years if necessary.
    The U.S. is not going out of business, but we’re all aboard a ship run by fools.

    Sounds similar to my thinking. My portfolio was off to one of its better starts with about a 4% gain thru the first 3 months of the year. Most (but not all) of that has been erased in 2 days. I too deployed dry power Thursday & Friday taking cash from 12% down to 4.5% at the end of yesterday. There’s considerable fixed income / bond exposure in the ”invested” portion, so that 4.5% cash weighting is a bit misleading. Still, it represents an uncharacteristically low level for me.
    I’m struck by how universal across asset classes Friday’s selling was. By contrast, on Thursday utilities, consumers staples, most bonds were up. But Friday all hell broke loose. Little was up. (“Sell now! Look later!”) I’m thinking Thursday’s selloff was based more or less on fundamentals, while Friday’s selling was mostly sheer panic.
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly+ (2025/Q1–April 7, 2025)
    Barron’s Funds Quarterly+ (2025/Q1–April 7, 2025)
    https://www.barrons.com/topics/mutual-funds-quarterly
    (Performance data quoted in this Supplement are for 2025/Q1 and YTD to 3/31/25)
    (No Supplement – it’s all within the main issue)
    (Congratulations to @LewisBraham who seems to be in charge of all features now)
    Pg 18: A list of defensive, chaos-resistant funds. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    “Cash”: Money-market and ultra-short-term bond funds
    Bonds: BND,CBLDX, FFIAX, FPFIX
    Large-Cap-Value: ACMVX, GQHPX, SCHD, TWEIX
    International/Global: CIVVX, LVHI, SGENX
    Gold-Bullion: GLDM
    Alts: BAMBX, PCBAX, QDSNX, QLENX
    Pg 20: In 2025/Q1, gold, bonds and foreign stocks were winners. Large-cap-growth and cryptos were losers. SP500 peaked on 2/19/25. There were strong inflows into the money-market, ultra-short-term and intermediate-term bond funds. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    More on Funds & Retirement
    Popular dividend-blend etf SCHD has increased its energy exposure to 21% after the recent reconstitution; the next sectors are consumers 19%, healthcare 15%. Alternative ETFs include VIG, VYM, DGRO.
    INTERVIEW/Q&A – FUNDS. Sean SUN, Thornburg etf TXUG. The international growth fund has been hurt by its Chinese exposure, but those stocks are now rebounding. He looks for quality and durable growth at reasonable prices (GARP). The Fund includes emerging growth, mature growth and industry leaders. He doesn’t worry about risks to Taiwanese chip industry from China-Taiwan frictions. There are also carveouts for chips in the new US tariffs (25% for S Korea). The obesity drug sector will continue to have strong growth.
    RETIREMENT.
    GOLD is hot (relatively), but retirees shouldn’t chase it. Gold has had several short-term rallies, but it doesn’t have a good long-term record. For small positions, use gold-bullion IAU, GLDM, SGOL, GLD. In taxable accounts, higher collectibles capital gain rate of 28% applies. Goldminers are catching up in 2025 – GDX, GDXJ. Ignore the ads for Gold IRAs.
    Stick to your portfolio allocations and don’t do anything rash during the market turmoil. Keep the money you may need in 1-2 years in “cash” (money-market funds, ultra-short-term bond funds, T-Bills, high-yield savings accounts, short-term CDs).
    Barron’s weekend issue has CASH TRACK charts showing 4-wMA of flows.
    https://i.ibb.co/4D8Q7Dm/Barrons-Cash-Track-040525.png
    Q1 Top 5 Fund Categories (MFOP Quarterly Metrics)
    image
    Q1 Bottom 5 Fund Categories (MFOP Quarterly Metrics)
    image
    LINK
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    Even though I had cash to invest during the pandemic, I hesitated - caught between wanting to exit or take a chance to buy while the market was low. I chose to hold what I had and invested only small amounts at the edges, kicking myself later for the missed opportunity.
    So even though this time *may be different* I deployed dry powder at the edges on both Thursday and Friday, keeping enough in reserve to see us through the next 2-3 years if necessary.
    The U.S. is not going out of business, but we’re all aboard a ship run by fools.
  • Death-Crosses
    I did sell all equities after three years, precisely. Week ago, Thursday, 27 March. Rolled into DODIX, PIMIX, HOSIX. Done pretty well. But if recession bell continues to ring, will exit to TBills.
  • Is Your Fixed Income Portfolio Prepared for Uncertainty?...It's Not Just Tariffs
    Note from CrossingBridge on recent market volatility:
    Volatility has returned in full force, and while these recent moves may feel surprising, they shouldn’t be unexpected.
    The Trump administration has clearly and repeatedly messaged the desire to impose tariffs on trading partners as a source of revenue, justified by their belief in longstanding trading inequality. More importantly, Scott Bessent has focused on the considerable amount of US debt maturities that will need refinancing over the next 12 months. As a result of prior Treasury policy that focused on the shorter end of the curve, approximately $7 trillion of debt needs refinancing in 2025 alone. Bessent is focused on terming out the debt as far as possible and at the lowest rate possible. If weakening the U.S. economy and the dollar is a consequence, he is clearly taking the attitude of ‘so be it.’
    As seen over the past few years, investors have been whipsawed in their fixed income portfolios, experiencing drawdowns and volatility typically seen in the equity markets. Should inflation remain sticky (as illustrated by today's payroll numbers), it could put the Fed in a difficult position. Specifically, Danielle DiMartino Booth of QI Research highlighted from Powell’s Special Briefing today that he mentioned “tension” between soft & hard data, and that the word “persistent” replaced “transitory”. Furthermore, we should point out that aggressive U.S. policy may lead to a buyer strike among foreign investors. Alternatively, countries make Trump a phenomenal deal. One might speculate such a deal as tariff-relief in exchange for purchasing 100-year, zero-coupon U.S. Treasuries.
    After decades of duration being your friend, we don’t look at duration as a return driver, but rather as an additional risk in the portfolio. We believe it’s essential not to bet on the direction of interest rates, which is completely out of investors' control — but rather focus on what you can analyze. As bottom-up, fixed income value investors, we concentrate on fundamentals such as:
    • Cash flow quality and sustainability
    • Balance sheet strength
    • Liquidity buffers and access to capital
    • Sector and issuer-specific risks
    • Relative value across the capital structure
    For some time, we’ve cautioned that credit spreads were tight and that markets were underpricing both liquidity risk and uncertainty. With corporate profits at historically high levels, and productivity gains increasingly reliant on technological advances, we’ve maintained a defensive posture — overweighting ‘dry powder’ in our portfolios, which aims to serve a dual-purpose: 1) helping protect on the downside and 2) preparing to deploy capital when opportunities emerge.
    As spreads have started to widen, we are seeing some buying opportunities, but remaining highly cautious in deploying capital due to the high level of uncertainty.
    Please don't hesitate in reaching out to John Conner ([email protected]) if you have any questions/comments.
  • Berkshire Hathaway: "Donald Trump posted a fake quote from Warren Buffet on social media today"
    He's 94 years old!! Let's forgive him if he doesn't challenge Trump to a fist fight. He's done his talking already with his actions. 94 years old!!
  • Berkshire Hathaway: "Donald Trump posted a fake quote from Warren Buffet on social media today"
    “This is why Warren Buffett just said Trump is making the best economic moves he’s seen in over 50 years,” the video says.
    Bold letters highlight the non-sense Trump is sprouting.
    Buffet has more than half of Berkshire asset in CASH since he took profit in mid 2024. When the market is in deep recession, there will be plenty of buying opportunities for Buffet.
  • Administration: “ONLY THE WEAK WILL FAIL!”
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The Guardian:
    Stock-market rout continues as investors rattled by Trump tariffs- S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq cap dismal day for global indices but US president doubles down on tariff plan
    Wall Street suffered its worst week since the onset of the Covid-19 crisis five years ago as investors worldwide balked at Donald Trump’s risky bid to overhaul the global economy with sweeping US tariffs. The US president doubled down on his plan on Friday, insisting he would not back down even as the chairman of the Federal Reserve warned it would likely raise prices and slow down economic growth.
    A stock-market rout continued apace, with the benchmark S&P 500 falling 322 points, or 6%, and the Dow Jones industrial average retreating 2,231.07 points, or 5.2%, in New York. The Dow’s two-day slump has wiped out $6.4tn in value, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite, meanwhile, sank 5.8%, and entered bear market territory, having fallen more than 20% since peaking in December.
    Over the week, the S&P 500 fell 9.1%, its worst five-day trading stretch since March 2020.
    Trump sought to reverse the slide, but an insistence that his policies “will never change” in an all-caps social media post appeared to only reinforce apprehension over his strategy: “ONLY THE WEAK WILL FAIL!” he wrote on Truth Social, his social media platform.
    China outlined plans to retaliate, setting the stage for an all-out trade war between the world’s two largest economies, as other governments worldwide pulled together their response. The sweeping package of tariffs unveiled by Donald Trump on Wednesday includes an exemption for the energy sector, which is a clear sign of the president’s fealty to his big oil donors over the American people, advocates say.
    The US market declines capped another dismal day for global indices. The FTSE 100 fell 5% in London. The CAC 40 declined 4.3% in Paris. The Nikkei 225 dropped 2.8% in Tokyo.
    “It is now becoming clear that the tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected,” the Fed chair Jerome Powell said. “The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.”

    Comment: SO MUCH WINNING !!!
    (Note: Text emphasis added in above report.)
  • Tariffs
    Why did you start another tariff thread on an investment forum?
    This belongs in the Off Topic one. It's obviously a political one.
    Can you show me the high correlation between this article and our portfolios?

    Can you see it today?
    Or do still you have your nose stuck too far somewhere to see anything clearly?
    In all seriousness, I'm hereby nominating your questions/post on this thread as the
    dumbest investment/economy post I've ever read. And I do mean ever.
    Your usual rudeness has been clear and present for at least 10 years. Starting from I have no clue; I would never retire and would never make it.
    Surprise, all your rude assessments have been wrong, way wrong.
    The board has been discussing tariffs since 2018. YTD, we have seen hundreds of posts about tariffs. Most of these posts were political and rude ones; even Dems on the board admit it.
    For years, nothing happened. I just proved no high correlation for years and why these threads should be on the OP board.
    Sure, it finally happened this week.
  • Berkshire Hathaway: "Donald Trump posted a fake quote from Warren Buffet on social media today"
    Following is a short current report in The Guardian:
    Berkshire Hathaway released a statement that essentially says Donald Trump posted a fake quote from Warren Buffet on social media today.
    A video posted on X that Trump reposted on Truth Social said that Trump is crashing the stock market on purpose, supposedly to get the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
    “This is why Warren Buffett just said Trump is making the best economic moves he’s seen in over 50 years,” the video says.
    In a statement to CNBC, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett’s company, said: “There are reports currently circulating on social media (including TikTok, Facebook and TikTok) regarding comments allegedly made by Warren E Buffett. All such reports are false”.
    We’re likely going to see a lot of attempts from Trump and his administration to reframe the situation on Wall Street in the coming days. Keep in mind that in early March, when Trump was asked whether he could confirm that the country wasn’t heading into a recession because of his tariff policies, Trump said: “I hate to predict things like that”.
  • Among the biggest losers so far are tech stocks, particularly Apple
    The following is from a current report in The Guardian:
    Among the biggest losers so far in the massive Wall Street sell-offs are tech stocks, particularly Apple, which relies heavily on China in its supply chain.
    Apple is nearly 6% down today, after falling 9% on Thursday – what amounted to over $300bn of its market value, according to the Financial Times. It was the company’s worst day since March 2020, at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. The White House went out of its way to confirm that there aren’t any exceptions made for Apple in Trump’s plan.
    Projections made by Rosenblatt Securities suggest that the tariffs of China, of which there will be a total of 54% after Trump’s new reciprocal tariffs against the country, could increase the cost of the cheapest iPhone 16 model by 43% – from $799 now to $1,142, depending on how much of the tariff Apple chooses to push onto customers.
    The tariffs came despite moves from Apple CEO Tim Cook to try to cozy up to Trump. Cook congratulated Trump on his win in November and was in attendance at Trump inauguration. In February, Apple announced that it would invest over $500bn in US jobs over the next five years, what was largely seen as a play to get Trump to hold back on tariffs.
  • Stocks sink in another brutal day, as Trump's tariffs send global shockwaves
    Following are excerpts from a current NPR report:
    Wall Street is not Main Street — but this week, investors and consumers alike seem terrified of how President Trump's tariffs could upend the global economy. The pain continued for U.S. stocks on Friday, a day after the stock market suffered its worst day in five years.
    Late on Friday morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 1,400 points — or 3.4% . That extended its Thursday selloff of nearly 1,700 points, or 4%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq and the benchmark S&P 500, which tracks the largest U.S. companies, also continued to tumble: Both fell more than 4% on Friday morning.
    Trump shocked businesses, investors, and global trading partners on Wednesday, when he announced that his long-promised tariffs would affect almost all U.S. imports. He has imposed the taxes on U.S. allies and foes alike: Most U.S. imports will now face tariffs of at least 10 percent, with higher taxes on goods from the European Union, Japan, China, and dozens of other countries.
    The global trade war intensified on Friday. China responded to Trump's taxes with a reciprocal 34% tariff on all U.S. imports; other countries are also likely to retaliate.
    Economists warn the new taxes will result in higher prices and slower growth in the United States — while spilling over into other countries and hurting the global economy. Investment bank JPMorgan on Thursday warned that the tariffs are likely to push the U.S. and the world into a recession.
    Businesses of all sizes reacted with shock and anger as they processed the sweeping costs that they — and their customers — will now have to pay to continue doing business.
    Consumer spending is already slowing down, while consumer confidence has plummeted. And even a reassuring jobs report on Friday morning — with employers adding more jobs than expected last month — couldn't quiet widespread market fears about the outlook for the post-tariffs economy.