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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Several years ago, in a discussion of those two types of bond div accounting, Yogi coined "accrual" vs. "NAV flow" as handles for them, which has always seemed pretty transparent language to me.
    If we want to get accounting geeky, both are accruals: one to your account and the other to the NAV. The primary difference is where it is reflected.
    The secondary difference perhaps is if you sold (before ex-date) a fund whose NAV is pregnant with accrued dividend, you are treating the accrued dividend as capital in nature whereas if you sold the same fund on ex-div date then the accrued dividend will be paid to you (with an equivalent drop in NAV) and is ordinary income in nature (barring limited exceptions). The reverse also applies when you are buying into the fund. If you buy a fund whose NAV is pregnant with dividend, then you are paying to get some of it back as a dividend (ordinary income). These differences are magnified if the dividend is paid quarterly or annually, rather than monthly. You will also notice the difference if your holding in the fund is in seven figures or more. This time of transaction distinction does not apply to funds that accrue div to your account and not to the NAV. This tax chatter may be useful only if you hold the fund in a taxable account. However, it may not be wise to delay your sale for tax reasons.
    The third and minor difference is if you are transferring a fund from one brokerage to the other, more likely the fund that accrues div to the NAV transfers cleanly. But this is not a good reason to choose which fund one should invest in.
    The above is not an exhaustive listing or discussion.
    @Mona, please see this post as well.
  • OPINIONS ABOUT HBLIX FUND
    d
    @ducrow - You are correct that HBLIX is a bit more conservative than LOGIX. It holds considerably more fixed income / bonds and a lesser amount of equities. Both look like decent funds. “Year-over-year” LOGIX is up 21.74% (M*) while HBLIX is up “only” 18.91%. Both have been hot. So how much real risk reduction? Your plan might resemble leaping from the red hot frying pan into the bubbling stew pot. A bit cooler …..
    Sounds like the contemplated switch is based in part on the premise that interest rates will continue falling. Maybe they will … Personally, I’m not too sure about that. It’s not the Fed or politicians that will ultimately determine longer term interest rates (a popular misconception). It’s things like government debt-load, inflation, economic growth / recessions, geo-politics (including wars), the dollar on the foreign exchanges and “black swans” like the recent global pandemic. A 10-year bond at just over 4% seems very low to those of us here who came of age in the 70s when mortgages were running 15+%.
    I don’t think you can go wrong adding to cash after a couple very hot years. I also like a toe-hold in the precious metals - however they’ve been bid up a lot lately and could suffer a big correction. There’s not much out there that looks cheap to me right now in either fixed income or equities. Use a portfolio analyzer as one gage of where you are on the risk spectrum.
    I note you own DODBX. Excellent fund. I owned it for many years before finally selling a year or so ago as part of a “consolidation” of assets under one umbrella.
    Re Mike’s remark. if you type a fund’s symbol in capital letters the board’s software automatically highlights it and creates a link to a variety of sources. Good idea. I hadn’t paid much attention to that since I dwell mainly at the M* site and don’t mind entering symbols manually.
    Good luck.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Several years ago, in a discussion of those two types of bond div accounting, Yogi coined "accrual" vs. "NAV flow" as handles for them, which has always seemed pretty transparent language to me.
  • OPINIONS ABOUT HBLIX FUND
    I'm 70. Officially OLD. Are not DODBX and HBLIX a bit more like each other, compared to WBALX? I just threw that one into the mix. And Morningstar doesn't always label and align things very well. I own WBALX. Performance-wise, HBLIX and WBALX are in the same 5-year ballpark. DODBX outruns the other two over 5 years, but it is not avowedly "conservative" or even "moderately conservative." Of the three, WBALX holds the highest bond quality. HBLIX offers the highest yield among them. (Morningstar.) Anyhow, how many different AA/balanced funds does a person need? If you've decided to make a switch toward less beta and volatility, I'd lose DODBX and replace it with one of the other two---assuming you've made your money, and growth is not any longer the highest priority. Never a bad time to act on your priorities, unless the Market is in turmoil. The Market's been volatile, but it's always a matter of degree. I would not call it turmoil, as the Indices march ever-upward.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Congrats to those here in the CLO bond ETFs. More specifically JAAA and PAAA in the investment grade hovering around 6% YTD with nary a drawdown. And JBBB and CLOZ in the below investment grade hovering around 8.5% YTD with just a blip. The blip occurred in early August on recession fears. I prefer holding an OEF equivalent which I have previously referenced. Also I have a quirk when it comes to OEF bond funds. I prefer the ones that pay daily vs. the ones that pay monthly. A reason I just sold off CBLDX. Great fund but another bond category has been steadily rising recently and prefer to park money there.
    Will be on a long posting sabbatical as the backcountry hiking season is just around the corner. Time to explore for new caves, rock shelters, arches, and waterfalls. At 77 I never know how many more years I will be able to handle the rigors and dangers of solo off trail explorations. As it is the rangers have a fit this elderly man is back there in the middle of nowhere. Not so much out of compassion for an injured hiker as for the logistics of a backcountry search and rescue, Also unable to respond to any private messages as I will not be signing here in much less checking in. Best of luck to all in their investing endeavors.
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    I have done the following for years at Schwab.
    Suppose I have $100k in MM and want to buy $100k PRWCX.
    I sell $100k of MM and buy PRWCX in the morning. At night I see the results, no problem.
    I
    have you tried buying, say, PRWCX in the morning and selling, say, $100k of MM later on? or even the equivalent amount from a fund you hold but no longer like, say, VASIX or similar? that's just switching the order from what you do but, again, no problem. and if it's a fund you no longer like, you still have the rest of the day to change your mind and sell something else. i don't know why anyone would use the so-called exchange feature when this other option can be used.
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    for me at schwab, i can place an order for anything even if i don't have the funds to pay for it immediately. i am told, before placing the order, that i'll need to have the necessary funds in my account within two or three days (can't remember which). never have to sell MM funds before buying or anything like that. same thing doesn't work at fidelity, at least not for me.
    Years ago it was 3 days (T+3). Until recently it was 2 days (T+2). Now it's just a day (T+1).
    Fidelity automatically sells your MMFs as needed, as though they were your core (transaction) account. Or you could think of them as "overdraft protection". AFAIK, no one else does this.
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    I have done the following for years at Schwab.
    Suppose I have $100k in MM and want to buy $100k PRWCX.
    I sell $100k of MM and buy PRWCX in the morning. At night I see the results, no problem.
    If you do the reverse, same results.
    If you sell all the shares of PRWCX, you don't know the exact results, just buy 95%. The next day buy the rest of the MM.
    Yes, Schwab made money on that small amount.
    It doesn't bother me.
  • Social Security C.O.L.A. for 2025 at 2.5% increase/ADDED calculations
    The former taxi drivers have already been displaced by the Uber drivers....now despite how quote fantastic end quote the economy is doing there is an over abundance of Uber drivers and they are making way less than they did several years ago....
    Talking about taxi drivers, I finally found a worse investment that mine. The value of a taxi medallion in NYC runs in the area of $110,000 - $130,000. In 2011, they were selling for $1,000,000 or more.
  • Social Security C.O.L.A. for 2025 at 2.5% increase/ADDED calculations
    The former taxi drivers have already been displaced by the Uber drivers....now despite how quote fantastic end quote the economy is doing there is an over abundance of Uber drivers and they are making way less than they did several years ago....not sure what musk has to do with this... economies and civilization moves forward sometimes at a rapid pace....what happened to the buggy whip manufacturers? The cleaners, no one wears a pressed shirt anymore....How about the phone operators? While it's easy to say if you're in a good spot, one needs to grow and adapt....or else get left behind.
    Remember when a few years ago they were telling the blue collar types to learn to code? Now the blue collar types are telling the unemployed coders to learn to weld
    What goes around comes around...
  • MRFOX
    @ stayCalm: MRFOX LT Returns as of 9/30: APR 17.0%; MAXDD -15.7% (202003; Recovery Mos. 7; ST Dev 13.2%; DSEV 7.3%; Ulcer Index 3.2%; Sharp Ratio 1.14%; Sortino Ratio 2.07%; Martin Ratio 4.76; MFO Rating 5 (Best); Peer Count 108; APR vs. Peer 3.6%; APR Rating Best; APR vs. SP500 2.3; Fund is 8.8 years old. Good reasons why you own it.
  • Why Stay in Medigap Plan F?
    I assume my deductible and my copay are additive ($200 +$1800 = $2000). At that point the cost of meds are fully coverage by my plan...whoopie!

    Yup. Took me years to understand the interplay between copays, deductibles, and out of pocket max's, especially when there are some payments that don't count against that max. But I was much younger and inexperienced in the ways of convoluted insurance back then.
    That's quite a load you're carrying. Once one goes over $100/mo for MA it is worth a look at original Medicare plus Medigap + Part D (drugs). That will cost even more than the $1200/yr MA you're facing, but you could come out ahead if you are hospitalized or have lots of copays or coinsurance charges. Depends on health and expectations. No one size fits all.
    Don't know about Costco's hearing service, but we've been very happy with Costco's eye services. Note that the optometrist uses Costco space but is operating independently (and takes credit cards brands in addition to Visa). The opticians are part of Costco.
    BTW, the terms of art are:
    copay - fixed amount (e.g. $20 for a doctor visit)
    coinsurance - percentage amount (e.g. 20% of contracted rate for a doctor visit under original Medicare)
    cost sharing - any arrangement such as the above where the insurer pays part and you pay part
  • Cambria TAX ETF may launch in December
    Hi Ben. Thanks for the comments. Faber spoke in terms of “small investors” in the interview I watched, so the mention of $500,000 surprised me. Fortunately, the video is already available on Bloomberg. Scroll ahead to 16:00 if anyone wants to view. It’s the last of several segments on etfs.

    I suspect Meb is a bit of a publicity hound. I’ve been listening to a trove of his old podcasts going back several years (The Meb Faber Show) for a month on a regular basis. These consist mostly of hour-long interviews with different money managers. 1 is 3 is pretty good. I don’t need to tell people that Cambria has more losers than winners. Or that it is very small player in a field of giants. That said, I like their global allocation fund (GAA) and have owned it a while - primarily for the exposure it provides to foreign markets, precious metals, commodities and bonds - although it is broader than just that.
  • Why Stay in Medigap Plan F?
    Zero or low costs for all our meds too (Optum, Costco, CVS)
    The good news is that starting in 2025, drug costs will be capped at $2,000, so exposure isn't unlimited.
    I am learning (first year of Medicare) that there are payment phases with Part D.
    The Premium - (in my case, it is embedded in my Medicare Advantage Premium)
    The Deductible - (Full out of pocket Cost of the RX up to a specific $...in my case $200)
    The Co-payment - (A percentage of the RX cost based on the tier of the drug up to a $ Amount... in my case, $2000).
    I assume my deductible and my copay are additive ($200 +$1800 = $2000). At that point the cost of meds are fully coverage by my plan...whoopie!
    For 2025:
    All must pay for:
    Medicare Part B - which looks like it will be about $185/M (plus IRMAA adjustments)
    Next select between:
    - A Supplemental Plan (Some may include benefits for hearing, eye care... maybe even dental?) or
    - Medicare Advantage Plan (Hearing, Eye care , Dental or Part D may be included)
    Select a Part D Plan (Costs = Premium + as much as $2K of deductibles and co-pays)
    Some Non - required Coverage I plan on having:
    - Dental (My local Dentist offers an in house care plan) - $280 - Covers basic Care - 2 cleanings, x-rays, exams
    - Hearing (Hearing Tests and Hearing aid allowances) - I found that Costco or Easter Seals in our area offered affordable services
    - Eyecare (Eye Tests and Eye glass allowances) - I found that Costco offered affordable services
    Snapshot of maximum Health care costs for 2025:

    Part B= ($185*12) = $2,220
    Medicare Advantage = $1200 (Includes Part D Premium) + Max $2000 Medical Deductible + Part D Potential out of Pocket Max cost of $2000
    Dental Plan - $280 (50% discount of other procedures)
    All of the above costs are close to $7700
    In years where I have mostly Wellness visits I would have costs close to $3700
    Most of this is HSA eligible for reimbursement so I will have decisions to make on how I manage that account going forward.
    Lots to continue to learn and do.
  • Why Stay in Medigap Plan F?
    Zero or low costs for all our meds too (Optum, Costco, CVS)
    Drug plans often get little attention when comparing MAPD plans. For most people there's little difference - generics, preferred or otherwise, are either "free" or dirt cheap on most plans. But when it comes to brand name drugs, the difference between plans can be huge.
    Over the past few years, drug plans, both Part D and MAPD, have been moving from copay (flat amount per item) to coinsurance (percentage cost). Brand name drugs with four (or more) digit costs are becoming way more expensive.
    Consider Prolia, a brand name drug used by many for osteoporosis. (I know a few people using it.) Plans typically list it as a tier 4 (brand name, non-preferred) drug. The manufacturer gives its list price (wholesale acquisition price) as $1,786.12. It is injected twice yearly.
    Tufts Preferred Access PPO charges 50% for tier 4 drugs. That would come to $1,786 yearly. (Medicare.gov says $1,62x).
    BC/BS Blue SaverRx charges 49% copay for tier 4 drugs. That comes out about the same as Tufts. (Medicare.gov says $1,59x.)
    Or you could get a BC/BS PPO plan that charges just $285/dose ($570/year), but it comes with an $87/mo premium. The all in cost is about the same, at $1,614.
    One point here is that what looks like an obvious candidate can instantly become dubious depending on one's individual situation.
    Another point is that drugs can shift the whole landscape, even tilting it toward MA plans.
    Medicare.gov shows no Part D policy charging under $1,900 in Boston when one includes Prolia. But it reports that Mass General Brigham PPO's all in cost, including Prolia, is "just" $600/year. That's a $1,300 difference.
    One might be willing to pay the cost of a Medigap plan for the peace of mind that comes with Original Medicare. Many people are. But adding yet another $1,300 on top of that due to Part D costs could give one pause. The good news is that starting in 2025, drug costs will be capped at $2,000, so exposure isn't unlimited.
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    Blog - https://bilello.blog/2024/the-week-in-charts-10-14-24
    Item 4 discusses the cumulative increase in major CPI categories over the past 4 years and shows Medical care at 8% and Auto insurance at 60%. Why are we measuring Medical care, rather than Medical insurance? My medical insurance probably went up 60%. I already know my next year medical premium increase is 15%. CPI probably has measurement problem.
    Item 8. US HY Credit spreads at 2.89% is the lowest since 2007. SPY dividend yield at 1.27%(tied with Q4 2021) is the lowest since 1999. Nothing to see here?
  • The Great Government Transfer-mation
    @bee I'm not sure I like the wording, "government transfers." I take it as a gift from the gov., which most of it isn't. VA Benny's all earned as is my SS monthly check.
    It's a very interesting topic and can appear convoluted. Couldn't an argument be made that we (the public) transfer more of our money to the government than we did years ago?
    Take the lottery for example. I see this as both public/government transfer. Wish I was on the winning end of the these transfers.
    Taxes are public transfers to the government that hopefully become government transfers to build bridges and roads, fund public safety and education, arm the military. Let's not forget the government transfers that pay for a growing number of government salaries.
    Others:
    SS= runs partially on (earned income) public transfer - it needs to balance out with future public transfers = or > government transfer to SS recipients.
    Medicare = Pooled Public transfers "in" by way of premium payments...shared payment out by way of government payments and public co-payments for medical services.
    Medicaid = Appears a one way Government Transfer out, but there must be a public funding source for medicaid, right?

    How does Medicaid financing work?
    Medicaid financing is shared by states and the federal government with a guarantee to states for federal matching payments with no pre-set limit. The percentage of costs paid by the federal government varies for specific services and types of enrollees and depending on whether the costs are for medical care or program administration.
    The federal share of spending for services used by people eligible through traditional Medicaid, which includes individuals who are eligible as children, low-income parents, because of disability, or because of age (65+), is determined by a formula set in statute. The formula is designed so that the federal government pays a larger share of program costs in states with lower average per capita income. The resulting “federal medical assistance percentage” or “FMAP” varies by state and ranged from 50 percent to 78 percent for FFY 2023 (Figure 5).
    States can use provider taxes and IGTs (intergovernmental transfers) to help finance the state share of Medicaid. States have some flexibility to use funding from local governments or revenue collected from provider taxes and fees to help finance the state share of Medicaid within certain limits and rules. Provider taxes are an integral source of Medicaid financing, comprising approximately 17% of the nonfederal share of total Medicaid payments in SFY 2018 according to the Government Accountability Office (GAO). All states (except Alaska) have at least one provider tax in place and many states have more than three (Figure 8). The most common provider taxes are on nursing facilities (46 states) and hospitals (44 states). As of July 1, 2022, 32 states including DC also reported at least one provider tax that is above 5.5% of net patient revenues, which is close to the maximum federal safe harbor or allowable threshold of 6%. Federal action to lower that threshold or eliminate provider taxes, as has been proposed in the past, would therefore have financial implications for many states.
    The most common Medicaid provider taxes in place in FY 2022 were taxes on nursing facilities (46 states), followed by taxes on hospitals (44 states), intermediate care facilities for individuals with intellectual disabilities (33 states), and MCOs7 (18 states).
    https://kff.org/report-section/medicaid-budget-survey-for-state-fiscal-years-2022-and-2023-provider-rates-and-taxes/
    Bottom line, we pay more today in public transfers to local, county, state, and federal governments so they can orchestrate these transfers out.
    I might imagine that years ago a larger proportion of these transfers and services happened between the public and private organizations - churches, non-profits and philanthropy.
    IMHO we have grown governments along with the growth of these government transfers.
    Maybe its time to review the role of government regarding both sides of these transfers.
  • Social Security C.O.L.A. for 2025 at 2.5% increase/ADDED calculations
    The source link for these rough calculations is below. If anyone has another method of calculation; please let us know. The calculator uses a standard CPI government number. Whether you agree or not; this is the method used for various COLA's to the best of my knowledge. Having a COLA for a pension or SS is valuable. For those fortunate enough to have a pension, let alone a COLA; you should be 'happy'.
    I'll use 10 years looking back, to present, as a sample; with $1,000 as a base number.
    YES, there numerous types of CPI; including formulas that do not use government methods.
    IF one had SS or a pension paying $1,000/month in 2014, then the following numbers seem to apply:
    --- Pension, no COLA: One still has a $1,000 monthly payment, but the 'purchasing power is NOW $670 from 10 years ago .
    --- Pension w/COLA: One's monthly payment may now be in the range of $1,332.
    *** A very large gap in those two numbers in 2024, eh?
    Annual in 2024:
    Pension w/o COLA = $8,040
    Pension w/COLA = $15,984
    Compounding operates in two directions !!!
    HEY, I/we need to know if there is a large mistake with this math.
    Calculator source
  • BONDS The week that was.... December 31, 2024..... Bond NAV's...Most positive. FINAL REPORT 2024
    I saw an S&P target of 8,000 by the end of the decade from a perma bull. While that number looks big, it is only about 33% over the next six years. That comes to about 5% per year or 6% inclusive of dividends and an equity risk premium of only 2% at the current 10 yr yield of 4.10%. I am tempted to reduce equity exposure in favor of high yield corporate bond fund(s) yielding at 6+%.
  • Why Stay in Medigap Plan F?
    @msf
    My wife and I have been with Traditional Medicare and a medicare supplemental plan over 7 years and have never had to communicate an appeal, request authorization, denied coverage, or received a bill during that time. I can see any doctor who accepts Medicare anywhere in the country.
    I choose the peace of mind that I’ve experienced with Traditional Medicare and Supplemental plan even though it costs me more in the short term; and even though the supplemental plan increases each year, I know there will be no surprises with accessing the health care, I or my wife needs.

    Well said, exactly the same reasons why I chose to stay in Original Medicare Plan F.
    May I also add that I just spoke to a friend of mine who is a retired NYC schoolteacher. He told me that when the City first rolled out its Medicare Advantage Plan, the retirees were assured that any doctor who accepts Original Medicare would also accept the City's new Advantage Plan. However, all of my friend's doctors told him that they do not accept any Advantage Plan, period. They most frequently mentioned the onerous procedure they would have to follow of obtaining access to critical medical care for their patients through pre-authorizations.