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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Federal trade court blocks Trump from imposing sweeping tariffs under emergency powers law
    “'The Worldwide and Retaliatory Tariff Orders exceed any authority granted to the President
    by IEEPA to regulate importation by means of tariffs,' the court wrote,
    referring to the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act."

    The Trump administration alleges the trade deficit constitutes a national emergency.
    Our country has run a trade deficit for 49 consecutive years.
    Trump claims he has broad authority to set tariffs via the IEEPA.
    In the past, the IEEPA was used to impose sanctions on U.S. enemies or freeze their assets.
    No prior U.S. president has invoked this law to impose tariffs.
  • Federal trade court blocks Trump from imposing sweeping tariffs under emergency powers law
    Following are excerpts from the United States Court of International Trade webpage:
    The United States Court of International Trade

    From the time of its establishment, the United States Court of International Trade and its predecessor bodies have been designed to provide “a comprehensive system for judicial review of civil actions arising out of import transactions and federal transactions affecting international trade.”
    This system, now established under Article III of the U.S. Constitution, is rooted in the mandate of Article I, Section 8 of the U.S. Constitution, providing that “all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States.” The Court ensures... national uniformity in the judicial decision-making affecting import transactions.

    HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE LITIGATION

    The Customs Courts Act of 1980, historically the most significant legislation affecting international trade litigation, is also the most recent attempt by Congress to design the best judicial system for corrective justice in this area. The role of the United States Court of International Trade--as a constituent and significant part of the federal judicial system--is the culmination of a continuous process of empiric legislation enacted over the past 200 years.
    The first case tried before the first judge appointed to the first court organized under the Constitution of the United States involved a dispute arising from an importation into the new nation. Since that time, Congress periodically has addressed the many complex issues involved in resolving international trade disputes to solve specific problems or meet specific needs at particular times.
    In 1890, Congress provided for a Board of General Appraisers, a quasi-judicial administrative unit within the Treasury Department. The nine general appraisers reviewed decisions by United States Customs officials concerning the amount of duties to be paid on importations.
    As the number and types of decisions relating to importations expanded, Congress, in 1926, replaced the outmoded Board of General Appraisers with the United States Customs Court, a court established under Article I of the Constitution. However, the change was little more than a change in name, for the jurisdiction and powers of the tribunal remained essentially the same, and the Customs Court continued to function as did the Board of General Appraisers.
    Over the next thirty years, the Customs Court gradually was integrated into the federal judicial system until, in 1956, Congress declared the court to be a court established under Article III of the Constitution. Despite this important change in status, the jurisdiction, powers, and procedures of the court followed the pattern of its statutory predecessors.
    In the late 1960's, Congress recognized that fundamental changes were needed in the court's statutory procedures as well as in its jurisdiction and powers. The scope of these changes was so broad that Congress, in the Customs Courts Act of 1970, limited its efforts to procedural reforms. Congress deferred for subsequent legislation the remaining substantive issues concerning the court's jurisdiction and remedial powers, which were addressed in the Customs Courts Act of 1980.

    COMPOSITION OF THE COURT

    The President, with the advice and consent of the Senate, appoints the nine judges who constitute the United States Court of International Trade, which is a national court established under Article III of the Constitution.
    The judges, who are appointed for life, as are all judges of Article III courts, may be designated and assigned temporarily by the Chief Justice of the United States to perform judicial duties in a United States Court of Appeals or a United States District Court.
    The chief judge of the Court of International Trade is a statutory member of the Judicial Conference of the United States, and convenes a judicial conference of the Court of International Trade periodically for the purposes of considering the business and improving the administration of justice in the court.
    The Judicial Conference of the United States serves as the principal policy making body concerned with the administration of the United States Courts.
    The chambers of the judges, the courtrooms, and the offices of court are located at One Federal Plaza in New York City at the Courthouse of the United States Court of International Trade.

    JURISDICTION OF THE COURT

    The geographical jurisdiction of the United States Court of International Trade extends throughout the United States. The court can and does hear and decide cases which arise anywhere in the nation. The court also is authorized to hold hearings in foreign countries.
    The different types of cases the court is authorized to decide--that is, its subject matter jurisdiction--are limited and defined by the Constitution and specific laws enacted by the Congress.
    The subject matter jurisdiction of the court was greatly expanded by the Customs Courts Act of 1980. Under this law, in addition to certain specified types of subject matter jurisdiction, the court has a residual grant of exclusive jurisdictional authority to decide any civil action against the United States, its officers, or its agencies arising out of any law pertaining to international trade.
    This broad grant of subject matter jurisdiction is complemented by another provision in the Customs Courts Act of 1980 which makes it clear that the United States Court of International Trade has the complete powers in law and equity of, or as conferred by statute upon, other Article III courts of the United States. Under this provision, the court may grant any relief appropriate to the particular case before it, including, but not limited to, money judgments, writs of mandamus, and preliminary or permanent injunctions.
    PRACTICE AND PROCEDURES BEFORE THE COURT
    When a case involves the constitutionality of an act of Congress, a Presidential proclamation, or an Executive order, or otherwise has broad and significant implications, the chief judge may assign the case to a three-judge panel.
    Appeals from final decisions of the court may be taken to the United States Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit and, ultimately, to the Supreme Court of the United States.
    .
  • Federal trade court blocks Trump from imposing sweeping tariffs under emergency powers law
    Following are excerpts from a current Associated Press report:
    WASHINGTON (AP) — A federal trade court on Wednesday blocked President Donald Trump from imposing sweeping tariffs on imports under an emergency-powers law, swiftly throwing into doubt Trump’s signature set of economic policies that have rattled global financial markets, frustrated trade partners and raised broader fears about inflation intensifying and the economy slumping.
    The ruling from a three-judge panel at the New York-based Court of International Trade came after several lawsuits arguing Trump has exceeded his authority and left U.S. trade policy dependent on his whims. But for now, Trump might not have the threat of import taxes to exact his will on the world economy as he had intended, since doing so would require congressional approval. What remains unclear is whether the White House will respond to the ruling by pausing all of its emergency power tariffs in the interim.
    The ruling amounted to a categorical rejection of the legal underpinnings of some of Trump’s signature and most controversial actions of his four-month-old second term. The ruling faces certain appeal — and the Supreme Court will almost certainly be called upon to lend a final answer — but it casts a sharp blow.
    “The Worldwide and Retaliatory Tariff Orders exceed any authority granted to the President by IEEPA to regulate importation by means of tariffs,” the court wrote, referring to the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act. While tariffs must typically be approved by Congress, Trump has said he has the power to act to address the trade deficits he calls a national emergency.
    He is facing at least seven lawsuits challenging the levies. The plaintiffs argued that the emergency powers law does not authorize the use of tariffs, and even if it did, the trade deficit is not an emergency because the U.S. has run a trade deficit with the rest of the world for 49 consecutive years.
    Trump imposed tariffs on most of the countries in the world in an effort to reverse America’s massive and long-standing trade deficits. He earlier plastered levies on imports from Canada, China and Mexico to combat the illegal flow of immigrants and the synthetic opioids across the U.S. border.
    The lawsuit was filed by a group of small businesses, including a wine importer, V.O.S. Selections, whose owner has said the tariffs are having a major impact and his company may not survive. A dozen states also filed suit, led by Oregon. “This ruling reaffirms that our laws matter, and that trade decisions can’t be made on the president’s whim,” Attorney General Dan Rayfield said.
  • Add ETF Share Class To Mutual Funds
    Vanguard filed a patent in 2001 to create ETf share classes for existing mutual funds.
    This exclusive patent expired in 2023.
    Numerous firms have shown interest in adopting this structure and are awaiting SEC approval to proceed.
    There are concerns that mutual fund outflows may increase the likelihood of taxable capital-gains distributions for ETf shareholders.
    "The US Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to approve applications for dual-share-class structures, perhaps as soon as this summer, allowing managers to add an ETF sleeve to an existing mutual fund. More than 50 firms, including BlackRock Inc. and State Street Corp., are waiting for the regulator’s greenlight to deploy the hybrid structure —made possible after Vanguard Group Inc.’s exclusive patent
    expired two years ago."

    https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2025/05/28/wall-streets-vanguard-style-funds-draws-warnings
  • What's Predicted Funds' Performance?
    Good read. My conclusion over decades is that good funds will continue to be top funds
    in the future until markets change and why I started investing this way in 2000.

    sounds as though you have done some backtesting.
    I held a lot of tweix, cgmfx, fairx, glrbx, and mapox back then.
    My ORIGINAL system is based on funds with good 1-3 years of performance and selecting the ones with the best 3-6 months of momo.
    During 2000-10, I held the following 3 funds for between 7-9 years. FAIRX,OAKBX,SGIIX. The rest of the history is at (link).
  • Options for liquidity beyond cash …. ?
    I’m keeping a portion of my cash in FLDB, Fidelity’s ultrashort term ETF. It trades instantly, so I can buy and sell as easily as a money market. Yields are about 4.6% right now, compared to 3.9% for Fidelity money markets. It doesn’t have a long history but has performed well since it opened about two years ago.
  • Options for liquidity beyond cash …. ?
    Funny you should mention GABXX @msf. I was looking at another of their funds, GABCX, last evening and when I ran it on Fidelity’s site I learned they don’t offer it, nor do they offer GABXX. Not a huge fan of Gabelli, but have owned / do own 1 or 2 of their CEFs.
    You make excellent points. Complicating things is that I’ve stashed about a year’s anticipated IRA distributions in SPAXX. A slug of that is anticipated for infrastructure. Absolutely want that $$ in a money market fund. Just don’t want to actually “distribute” it until needed. So my question hinged more on cash as a longer term portfolio position, equal in weight to several other holdings (with occasional rebalancing back to neutral).
    Re trading - I lost a bit when I sold JAAA in late April in order to buy equities and other risk assets.. JAAA dropped then (but much less than equities). So no! Don’t rely on it for trading needs. (I no longer own it.) I also lost on PRIHX which I loaded up on in my taxable account roughly 5-6 years ago. It had appeared so “safe” based on past performance. Yet when I finally sold out 3 or 4 years later it was worth less then at purchase.
    Oh. Excuse me. I realize you’re not supposed to confess past mistakes here! :)
  • Options for liquidity beyond cash …. ?
    The approach depends on one's objectives. For day-to-day, checking account type usage (or hank's trading), IMHO only a MMF, like GABXX (7 day yield 4.30%) or VUSXX (7 day yield 4.23%), are a good match. I'm assuming a "checking usage" occurs in a taxable account where pure treasury holdings (state exempt) add value. And like bank accounts, these will not lose money (unless the underlying treasuries default).
    What to use beyond that depends on one's objective(s). If one is looking at making periodic payments within the next few months (e.g. property taxes, mortgage payments, insurance premiums, income tax estimates, etc.) then buying individual treasuries maturing at the right time look good. The treasury yield curve is flat out to six months (around 4.35%)
    If one is looking at opportunistically replenishing one's "checking" account, then looking at funds with durations up to two years (NEAR being at the outer fringe) makes sense. I'd focus more on drawdown recovery times than volatility risk. Alternatively, one might want to optimize risk/reward.
    I asked Portfolio Visualizer to do that with eight funds. Four of those were mentioned here: USFR, PULS, TBUX, NEAR. Since PV doesn't optimize cash, I substituted ICSH for a MMF. For the other three I added two floating rate non-treasury funds, FFRHX (bank loan, junk) and FLRN (IG). Finally I added CBUDX which has gotten some mention on MFO.
    PV reports that one optimizes reward/risk generally with a mix of CBUDX and FFRHX - the more risk one is willing to take, the more one adds FFRHX. It's only at the low end of risk (very low portfolio volatility) that one emphasizes USFR. And there's a narrow range of risks (volatility) of risk where ~10% in PULS helps. If it makes you feel more comfortable, an equal allocation of all eight of these funds is not far off the efficient frontier, so that works too.
    If anyone is wondering why I didn't include RPHIX, it's because the results aren't that much different from using CBUDX. Substituting RPHIX for CBUDX, the mixture graph (which funds for what volatility) is fairly unchanged. Though the max Sharpe ratio is a higher as are the returns with RPHIX.
  • Tariffs
    @Mona, will done.
    More tariffs consequences : Pigs can't fly: US high-end livestock breeders lose millions in China tariff fallout
    Dr. Mike Lemmon's pigs, each valued between $2,500 and $5,000, were supposed to be on a plane bound for Hangzhou, China, from St. Louis in April, where’d they spend the flight snoring, play fighting and snacking on oats and husked corn before taking up residence at Chinese hog farms.
    Instead, many went to a local Indiana slaughterhouse for less than $200 each after the Chinese buyer canceled the order within a week of China implementing retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. in April.
    China is one of the biggest importers of American breeding pigs and other livestock genetic material such as cattle semen. These lucrative niche export markets had been growing, but dried up since U.S. President Donald Trump started a trade war with Beijing.
    U.S. farmers and exporters said the dispute has already cost them millions of dollars and jeopardized prized trade relationships that took years to develop.
    https://msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/pigs-cant-fly-us-high-end-livestock-breeders-lose-millions-in-china-tariff-fallout/ar-AA1FgFK9
    China plays the long games since they learned from the first tariffs war. Other agricultural products are not purchased from others countries while US farmers are having hard time swelling their products at an even slim margins. Brazil replaced the bulk of soybeans imported to China today, and no tariffs treat will change that.
  • Options for liquidity beyond cash …. ?
    @Hank. For reasons of preservation of capital I live in the world between TRBUXX and common old Money Market Funds. For the last several years my Schwab MM has been more than satisfactory. I became overly enthusiastic about CD’s yielding above 5%. Those days are over but going forward it will depend on the direction of interest rates. I don’t need the income but I value preservation. And as the Bogleheads say,,, take your risk with equity stuff.
  • Long-bond revolt pressures 60/40 comeback in chaotic market
    By "down" to the 22nd percentile I meant that PRWCX typically ranks even higher. In half the years of the past decade it was at the 10th percentile or higher.
    As of last market close (May 23), M* reports it at the 23rd percentile YTD. (It dropped 1 percentile in the day or two since I posted 22nd percentile.) I don't know where 27th percentile comes from. M* reports 23rd percentile as of May 23 and as of April 30, and 41st percentile as of March 31st.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/prwcx/performance
    Lipper reports it at the 49th percentile of Mixed Asset Multi-Target Growth funds. The page linked to below doesn't give an "as of" date (at least I don't see it). But given that its YTD figure is reported to be 1.91%, the same as M* reports for May 23 ("today"), I figure that is through last market close.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/prwcx
    A lot depends upon how your peers are chosen (mixed asset growth or moderate allocation). One category uses a narrow band on style (growth) but a wide band on stock/bond allocation. The other category uses a narrow band on allocation (moderate) but a wide band on style (growth/value).
    As popular funds grow, they do tend to shift - upward in market cap and maybe to a different type. FLPSX started out as a small cap fund. It added capacity by moving into mid cap and adding more foreign holdings (it's now classified as a global fund). VPMCX started as a mid cap growth, moved to large cap growth and is now in large cap blend. Such funds are not necessarily worse than they used to be, but they are somewhat changed. Perhaps that's why you (@hank) sold?
  • Options for liquidity beyond cash …. ?
    Are you in a state with tax free treasury dividends? If so then I would look at VUSXX, GABXX. FRSXX and other similiars. If not ,other ultra short term funds to look at are ICSH, PULS in addition to TBUX. They each have different durations and credit qualities for which you would have to determine is best for your situation. I use USFR, GABXX, TBUX and PULS in the ultrashort sleeve. NEAR which I also own is of longer duration , ie 1.97 years and will of course be more volatile than the others. Good luck with your choice or choices.
  • Long-bond revolt pressures 60/40 comeback in chaotic market
    PRWCX 2025 Percentile Rank is at 27% = far from the bottom.
    3-5-10-15 years Percentile Rank at 8-4-1-1
    My portfolio is different = my system
  • Long-bond revolt pressures 60/40 comeback in chaotic market
    @msf offered this perspective in another thread:
    “PRWCX is having one of its poorest performances relative to peers, all the way "down" to the 22nd percentile. Typically growth leaning, it has moved solidly into blend (37% of portfolio is LCBl) suggesting that Giroux also sees the markets moving toward value. (It is also open to investors who have at least $250K total invested at TRP.)”

    As one who owned PRWCX almost from inception (1986) until I sold 2 or 3 years ago I’ve witnessed several different managers at the helm, a staggering growth of AUM and changes in how the fund positions itself (away from mid-cap and niche holdings). It’s a heavyweight now. Giroux speaks in terms of a 3-year time horizon and isn’t afraid to hold cash when he thinks equities are pricy. If past is prologue, the fund will again head to the front of the pack sometime during the 2 or 3 years. As always, I’m skeptical.
    If you go back to the January Barron’sRoundtable” 2 or 3 years ago (either 2022 or 2023) you will find Giroux was quite far off on his interest rate outlook - insisting rather stridently at the time that the 10-year Treasury would not finish the year above 3%. It finished quite a bit higher that year. Today it’s at 4.518%
  • Long-bond revolt pressures 60/40 comeback in chaotic market
    FD said, ”I never believed in B&H for decades, the markets keep changing, and sometimes it's for years.”
    Somewhat agree. Every 3-5 years I’ve found it prudent to alter the overall mix - even though it is intended as long-term B&H. An example was after real assets funds outperformed heavily around 2020-21. I dumped them. But during the past 6-12 months I reallocated to one, as these products have cooled off in recent years.
    My “Strategery” doesn’t always work. Last year I sold a big position in PRPFX after it had surged 28% at one point during the year. Darned if it hasn’t continued on its winning ways this year, thanks to gold’s unparalleled rise plus its holdings in the Swiss Franc which is up around 10% YTD.
    However, at this stage of life, ”A bird in the bag is worth two in the bush”.
  • Long-bond revolt pressures 60/40 comeback in chaotic market
    From the article
    "The so-called 60/40 portfolio – long recommended for investors who want to balance exposure to risk with a cushion of safer, steady income – calls for allocating 60 per cent of holdings to stocks and 40 per cent to bonds. While a bedrock for retirement savers over decades, the approach lost some of its lustre in recent years as its underlying mechanism fell out of whack, with US stocks and bonds moving more in lockstep rather than offsetting each other."
    VBIAX is your typical 60/40.
    I would not call 2.2% a great income.
    BND, the US Tot Index made 1.46% annually in the last 10 years, a pretty low performance. Even 15 years at 2.2% is pretty low. BND lost more than 13% in 2022, where was the cusion?
    I never believed in B&H for decades, the markets keep changing, and sometimes it's for years. I preferred to hold funds like PRWCX.
  • Long-bond revolt pressures 60/40 comeback in chaotic market
    Article - Originally from Bloomberg
    The author’s premise seems to be that the strategy has worked this year using intermediate term bonds, but that abnormal behavior at the 30-year end clouds the strategy’s efficacy going forward.
    “A SLUMP in US long-dated bonds is clouding the comeback of a classic investment strategy. The so-called 60/40 portfolio – long recommended for investors who want to balance exposure to risk with a cushion of safer, steady income – calls for allocating 60 per cent of holdings to stocks and 40 per cent to bonds. While a bedrock for retirement savers over decades, the approach lost some of its lustre in recent years as its underlying mechanism fell out of whack, with US stocks and bonds moving more in lockstep rather than offsetting each other.”
  • Tariffs
    CNN

    President Donald Trump said Sunday that he has agreed to delay a 50% tariff on European Union imports until July 9, the latest instance of Trump declaring an impending tariff and throwing markets into confusion only to later walk back the threatened levies.
    ... which goes along w/what I just posted in another thread:
    IMO we are in the early stages of a seismic, but quiet, re-ordering of the global economy over the next 10-15 years. Specifically, I think the world economy and/or money flows will pivot to working WITH (or AROUND) the United States as a partner, not THROUGH the United States as a requirement. Could that become the proverbial 'New World Order'?
    The current regime, backed by its complicit Congressional enablers and a history of biparitsan whistling-past-the-gravegard, is showing that America cannot be relied upon anymore as a stable partner in business, economics, markets, defense, etc, etc. Tariff Toddler's on-again, off-again proclaimations are not confidence-building or reassuring other nations, let alone businesses. And then seeing our nation's 'leaders' gleefully adding more to our debt again on the very day our credit rating gets (again) downgraded is just another example of the current folks in DC acting irresponsibly and figuring deep down that the music will never stop.
  • What Type of Fund might survive or thrive in this unprecedented environment?
    I think international ex-USA funds should see more positivity in the future. The only US sector I'm bullish on are utilities.
    IMO we are in the early stages of a seismic, but quiet, re-ordering of the global economy over the next 10-15 years. Specifically, I think the world economy and/or money flows will pivot to working WITH (or AROUND) the United States as a partner, not THROUGH the United States as a requirement. Could that become the proverbial 'New World Order'?
    The current regime, backed by its complicit Congressional enablers and a history of biparitsan whistling-past-the-gravegard, is showing that America cannot be relied upon anymore as a stable partner in business, economics, markets, defense, etc, etc. Tariff Toddler's on-again, off-again proclaimations are not confidence-building or reassuring other nations, let alone businesses. And then seeing our nation's 'leaders' gleefully adding more to our debt again on the very day our credit rating gets (again) downgraded is just another example of the current folks in DC acting irresponsibly and figuring deep down that the music will never stop.