Hi @Junkster,
If I was as good as you are at picking the movement of certain asset classes that trend to have good upward market movement and potential I'd probally be more of a trader as you are. However, the way I've made good money is to put money to work when stock valuations are low and then, over time, sell some off as the market advances with stock becoming overbought. This is the primary reason that I am sitting on a sizeable sum on cash within my portfolio. When stocks have bcome fully and richely priced as they are today I've learned to buy during pullbacks and then rebalance reducing my allocation to equities as they advance and recover. Just about all of my long term investment positions have produced positive returns for me through the years; and, if my largest holding FKINX went to zero on it's nav I'd still have made money because the amount of income distributions I've collected from it through the years.
Althouh, I don't like seeing negative years in the markets they do happen with several five to ten percent pullbacks usually happening each year. One of the things that gives me staying power is the income my portfolio generates as it is more than enough to statisfy my needs and I believe over time the markets will recover plus this provides me an opportunity to do a little buying when the pullbacks come and as the markets recover sell some off (buy low, sell high). Indeed not rocket science, just a strategy.
I sincerely appreciate hearing about the success of others and what they are doing from time-to-time ... you especially. I know you have a good following and I also enjoy reading your post. I sincerely wish you good investing & trading during these difficult markets. Know though, sometimes, fast money has been known to push asset valuations skyward just to sell down these assets and watch the sky fall leaving some in their wake.
Take care ... and, keep posting.

Hi @Junkster
Yup...........several years ago we held about 65% junk for a long time frame. Currently, we hold 52% of total in investment grade bonds (gov't. and corp.) No junk at this time.
YTD to date, today:
--- IEF = +9%
--- HYG = +9.3%
--- LQD = >11%
--- EDV = >30%
--- ZROZ = >31%
'Course, there have been a few time frames since the market melt when most bonds and equity move up together for awhile.
After this initial bump and grind since the BREXIT, equity and bonds traveling similar return rate paths. One and I may find this interesting, almost too interesting.
I expect money traveling in many directions the remainder of this year, looking for the overbought to buy some oversold.
Tis a lot of hot cash still roaming about looking for a bit of value, even if for a week or two.
I believe "bumpy ride" has arrived for a stay.
Regards,
Catch

Not a lot of excitement considering the S&P and Dow are at/or whispers from all time highs. That is always a good sign. Junk bonds at all time highs 4 of the past 5 days and completely ignoring the rout in oil this week. Advancing volume over declining volume one of the best of the year today. Poor junk bonds, they get no respect. Yet since the turn of the new century have beaten the revered VBINX and VFINX. And I don't mean that sarcastically as I believe nearly all investors would be better off in the latter two funds. Instead it seems most investors are more fixated constructing the "perfect" diversified portfolio than accumulating wealth. Some can't seem to shake the fear of another 2008. Witness the long thread about......... which are under water the past 3 and 5 years. I realize I am a short term trader who will not tolerate losses, but still, how does holding funds that are under water 5 years running add to one's retirement nest egg??

They are more momentum driven than most shops and use behavioral analysis as well which has worked quite well over the years.... The frontier strategy focuses on growth inflection points. Essentially, when a company has a positive trend change in growth potential or an expected growth trajectory emerges, they purchase. They then let the market price it up (first other investors underestimate the growth potential and the price rises, then overconfidence hits the market which accelerates the momentum). Once this occurs, Driehaus exits the position. Soon after (in theory) the stock price falls.

FYI:
Regards,
Ted
WEALTHTRACK Subscriber,
Turmoil, volatility and uncertainty have long been considered enemies of stock markets. They certainly proved that once again in the days immediately following Brexit on June 23rd, when British voters passed a referendum to exit the European Union. For a few trading sessions investors fled stocks and other assets perceived to be risky and flocked to traditional safe havens such as gold, long-maturity U.S. Treasury bonds and debt of other countries considered to be of high credit quality, including Germany, France and Japan.
According to bond rating firm Fitch, sovereign debt with below zero yields increased by $1.3 trillion in the month of June to a total of $11.7 trillion, boosted by the Brexit vote. Longer maturity debt was particularly popular. Japan’s negative yielding debt grew about 18% to $7.9 trillion, France’s by 13% and Germany’s by 8% to over $1 trillion each.
Britain is the first country to exit the 28 country European Union, which took its current form in 1992 as a single market allowing goods, services, money and people to move freely among member states, as if it were a single country. It has its own parliament, located in Brussels, with the ability to regulate a wide range of areas including the environment, transportation, consumer rights, employment rules and even such things as mobile phone charges and electric tea kettles.
Its single currency the Euro wasn’t created until 1999. The United Kingdom opted to keep its own currency, the Pound Sterling, as did several other member countries including Denmark and Sweden.
Why did the Brexit vote set off such a firestorm in global markets? How much of a threat is it to the global economy and financial markets now?
Joining us on WEALTHTRACK this week are two market pros who have been tracking these developments closely. Philippe Brugère-Trélat, Executive Vice President of Franklin Mutual Series is a contrarian, value investor with years of experience investing in Europe and other international markets. He is Co-Portfolio Manager of three funds, all rated 4-star by Morningstar. He has managed Franklin Mutual European Fund since 2004, and both Franklin Mutual Global Discovery Fund and Franklin Mutual International Fund since 2009.
Our other guest is one of our Financial Thought Leaders. Jason Trennert is Co-Founder, Managing Partner and Chief Investment Strategist at Strategas Research Partners, an independent investment strategy and macroeconomic firm celebrating its tenth anniversary this year.
Identified by Barron’s as one of “Wall Street’s Best Minds”, Trennert and his team are known for their original and timely economic, political and market analysis and identification of investment themes. The firm recently started Strategas Asset Management to enable clients to invest in portfolios based on three of those themes. One is Policy Opportunities, another is Large-Cap Dividend Growth and the third is New Sovereigns, formerly their Thrifty Fifty portfolio which we have discussed on previous episodes. I will ask Trennert for an update.
If you miss the show on television this week you can always catch it on our website. We also have an EXTRA interview with both of our guests. As always, we welcome your feedback. Click on the Contact Us link on our website, or connect with us on Facebook or Twitter.
Have a great summer weekend and make the week ahead a profitable and a productive one.
Best Regards,
Consuelo

I have always thought (well at least fora few years) that People like Peter Lynch had better information some of which would be illegal today because everyone must get this stuff at the same time. Therefore its harder to get an edge and hence harder to beat passive by much more than expenses. Plus everyone makes mistakes even the best of investors so shareholders in Sequoia like me may not recover from one mistake made in a long career.

LLJB - What impresses you about their approach? They seem to fly under the radar, so any info you can provide would be very helpful.
Thanks!

My impression from what I was able to read is that they look at things both bottom up and top down, which I think is a pretty good idea for frontier markets. Although I don't remember anything specific related to the Frontier Markets fund, my understanding with the Emerging Markets Small Cap fund was that they actively tried to hedge market risk. I've looked at their most recent SEC filing and there's no indication they're doing that in the Frontier Markets fund but IIRC they do have the ability based on the prospectus.
I've read most of what they write about Frontier and Emerging markets for the last few years and in most cases I find the analysis consistent with the things that I believe in. That was one of the reasons I chose WAFMX originally, and I wanted the focus on a growing middle class in many of these countries. I also believe continued structural reforms are necessary and most of what they write suggests they're paying attention to those things both from the macro perspective but also the micro perspective.
Chad Cleaver has spent most of his investment career working with emerging markets and until the last couple of years had a great record. I don't follow DRESX closely so I'm not sure what happened but I've generally thought pretty highly of him. The high turnover that's normal for the Emerging Markets fund is more of a concern in a taxable account although originally I was hoping to put it in an IRA. That's something that I think bears watching as we start to get the one year data for the fund. I'd also watch the performance allocation. So far they've done okay but I guess part of that is thanks to the cash they've held.

I'm with Catch- as Bob C. has opined, Brexit may not be a factor in the long-term. But there is a very real chance that the world-wide banking system is in for an extended nasty patch of uncertainty until the European politics settle down. With interest rates where they are there is almost no way that the international European banks can prosper, and there are way too many large financial swans flying around over there. Not only Greece and Italy, but even some large German and Swiss banks are finding themselves against the wall. Additionally, I won't be surprised if England and the EU drag out the resolution issues for a couple of years, leaving the future of London as a banking and financial center a major unknown.
Before this settles out we may be very glad that the US banks have been forced to increase their capitalization, despite their kicking and screaming every inch of the way. While the US is in better shape than Europe, the interconnectedness of world finance could very well make things more difficult over here also. Now the Fed not only has to worry about the US directly, but also what ricochet effects the US system might have elsewhere, which in turn would come back to affect the US. Things are far from promising in the banking sector, worldwide.

These points having been discussed from years ago and now, at FundAlarm and here.
.....aging demographics, too much debt, and technological advances including job-threatening robotization are significantly responsible for 2% peak U.S. real GDP as
opposed to 4-5% only a decade ago.
The "this time is different" has been dismissed by many talking heads since the 2008/09 market melt.

FYI: (Click On Article At Top Of Google Search)
A candid chat with Bill Nygren, who has been manager of the Oakmark Select Fund (OAKLX) since 1996. The fund ranks in the seventh percentile of large-company value funds the past 15 years. Mr. Nygren discusses finding value in today's market, what stocks to avoid, and whether the Chicago Cubs will go to the World Series.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.google.com/#q=Oakmark's+Bill+Nygren+sees+value+in+bank+stocks

rjb112: I would not hesitate to take Ted's advice for now. I was put in the very same position 3 1/2 years ago, but we had not discussed investing my inheritance since we both were active investors, its how we met. He led a class on investing that I took. I chose to take on an advisor, but have since taken some out to manage on my own since I am confident I can do as well. It did give me some excellent planning and allocation plan, which I am basically following. As your friend learns more about investing and gains confidence, she can then branch out to some investments she make like better. I am not a fan of Vanguard's advisory service concept since they only will invest in their products. She may find others investments she likes. If she is does not want to have an advisor help manage right now, she may want to go to https://www.napfa.org/ and find an hourly rate advisor to help come up with a plan for the future when she is ready.

Hi Guys,
Hallelujah!! It was a great celebration of our Nation’s birthday. The fireworks were launched early, were continuous, were extensive, and lasted well into the night.
Given the costs of these fireworks, one interpretation is that the South Bay area of Los Angeles is highly prosperous and confident. A less forgiving explanation is that the South Bay is populated by very spendthrift, but proud, citizens. As anticipated, I did overeat, but enjoyed it all.
Thank you for taking time to participate in this discussion. I did not anticipate such deep and appropriately nuanced responses. It’s always a good policy to seek and consider a diverse set of interpretations on any matter. That mostly produces better decision-making.
The submittals have ventured down a pathway not expected. That’s good. I agree with much of what has been said.
Inflation matters. That’s why I like to assess investment returns after adjusting for it. Averages don’t say it all; investment return volatility acts to corrupt end wealth which is pathway dependent based on that volatility and drawdown policy during retirement. That’s why I like Monte Carlo analyses when making retirement decisions. Equity returns are likely to be muted in the near future relative to historical averages, so I expect the averages to drop a little due to a near-term quiet productivity growth rate period.
I have no opinions about the Japan marketplace. It is a challenge to just keep pace with developments in the USA. Emotions are a huge factor in moving the marketplace, and the Japanese and American populations behave differently in that dimension.
In considering our divergent characteristics, I probably oversimplify to reach a faulty decision, but I am reminded of a famous soldier’s axiom. I am now quoting General George Patton. He said: “A good plan violently executed NOW is better than a perfect plan executed NEXT WEEK”.
I am not sure anyone can generate or define a perfect plan. Timing and decisiveness matters greatly when investing. Please understand I take no issue with Japanese folks. I have played tennis with one such terrific competitor twice a week for over 20 years.
Timing and decisiveness are delicate subjects in the investment world. It means different things to different folks at different times during a dynamic environment. When does good enough outweigh perfect? My answer is always.
I suppose that’s what I was thinking about when I closed my initial post with a few comments that distinguish between a Satisficer and a Maximizer. I am definitely a Satisficer. Based on some posts, MFO has a cohort of Maximizers. That mix is good since it makes for a vibrant marketplace.
Well, I’ve likely written myself into yet another hole. That’s okay because it’s only my opinion. Thank you all once again for contributing during holiday obligations.
Best Wishes.

FYI: Irving Levine and Copley Fund take first place in Winners’ Circle contest.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.wsj.com/articles/at-94-years-old-a-fund-manager-finds-himself-back-on-top-1467684241
M* Snapshot COPLX:
http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/COPLX/quote.html
Lipper Snapshot COPLX:
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Fund/COPLX
COPLX Is Unranked In The (LCV) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/large-value/copley-fund/coplx

What caught my eye was: "adjusted for inflation", which says that the figures are for 0% real returns. The recent concerns have been over 0% nominal returns. That's a less frequent occurrence (since inflation is almost always positive).
"Regression to the mean" says that since a 0% return is below the market average (mean), you're more likely to get a positive return (regress to the mean) than a negative return (diverge further from the mean) over the next time period.
It doesn't say that your cumulative returns will approach average if you wait long enough. That's the law of large numbers. And the further your returns are from mean, the larger (more years) those numbers have to be to get close.
The concern when the market underperforms (or outperforms for that matter) over a long stretch is that this time really is different, there's a new normal. Perhaps that should be a new norm (mean). I don't think anyone expects the US to ever again produce 1/4 of the world's output. Things do change. The difficulty is in recognizing when.
Still I agree that patience is essential.
https://infogr.am/Share-of-world-GDP-throughout-history
(Interesting graphs - China peaked at 1/3 of the world's GDP around 1820, and has been on a trajectory back that way this century.)

Hi @davidmoran,
I have owned both FDSAX and SVAAX for better than ten years. They were both suggested to me for purchase by my late father's broker who has now retired.
Old_Skeet

Hi @Junkster and others,
Thank you for your inquiry. I have no problem in answering your question as to why I started breaking down my performance reporting.
In reading the post of others, I discovered that some were posting investment returns only for investment positions within their portfolios and not reflecting their cash position. There were a good number of these, one being Ted as he reflected no cash being held when he reported but detailed what his investments had done. So with this, I started posting both ways with cash and without cash. In addition, since Morningstar portfolio does not take into account profit (or losses) from my trades I started including these as well. I expect you included profit and losses with your reporting; but, perhaps others did not. In addition, one very respected poster on the board made comment that changing ones allocation from time-to-time (sometimes by only a few percentage points) will not have much effect on the overall performance of ones portfolio. I felt different and wanted to point out the effect that my throttling my asset allocation from time-to-time was indeed having an impact.
Not trying to start anything, with anybody, I am just showing when reading what others say about their performance numbers that they can be derived from many varrying methods of reporting. Therefore, I felt I'd put some clarity in my reporting and make comment of things I felt might again be helpful to others. Part of my success in investing, better than forty years now, has to be able to, in part, determine when the better times are to put new money to work and when are perhaps good times to pick some of it up. For those that have followed my post on the board know that I broadcast my thinking and action. Before, I use to make comment on my success and I'd get call out by some who wanted me to declare what I was doing as I did it. Now, I am doing as some wanted which again, I feel, adds clarity. But, a good number of those that called me out, in the past, don't seem to around any more. I wonder why? I guess they were those that wanted to hit it big quickly perhaps through trading activity whereas I employ long term investing strategies and trade around the edges.
And, Junkster ... I want you to know, I by no means directed any of my comments towards you; however, I indeed appreciate you making the inquiry.
Thanks again for asking as it provided me an opportunity to write the above blurb.
Respectfully,
Old_Skeet

Hi @Mindy
@jerry noted: "U.S. Treasuries are a disaster..." My take on this quote from Mr. Snowball's July commentary is the wording stated to Mr. Snowball from Mr. Hasenstab. If I am incorrect, someone please state otherwise.
Disclosure: We were invested in Mr. Hasenstab's global bond fund for about 2.5 years, selling the holding in March, 2012.
Selected bond reference total returns, March 2012 - July 1, 2016
---TPINX, +6.6%
---IEF, +16.6%
---HYG, +20.2%
---EMB, +23.8%
---TLT, +42.5%
---EDV, +62%
As to the "Treasuries are a disaster", I would require a full explanation of the statement and to what time frame, past and/or present, from Mr. Hasenstab causes the disaster word. As Mr. Hasenstab has vastly more investment/economic studies versus my ongoing studies at Whats-a-matter U; I could only guess as to the decision making process for his investment choices. The presumption being that he is a dedicated value investor in the world of bonds. Not unlike Eric Cinnamon mentioned here recently searching for the ultimate values in the world of equity or whatever. Perhaps both managers have been sidetracked by the total dynamics of continued changes in the money flows of the global markets since the market melt. Sometimes it is difficult to deal with the "this time it is different".
Although our house is still bond slanted, I am not a fan of how this low interest rate environment is going to resolve. Money borrowing is dirt cheap, and will likely continue to temp more buyout/takeover action (whether sensible or not); as well as affects on consumer borrowing/spending.
However, until economies become more settled; I expect investment grade bonds to remain stable. The economies today are being pushed and shoved hard by politics and society in general.
Flexible and adaptable perhaps do not always fit into a managers mold of what he/she views as "what should be"; versus the real outcomes.
I suspect most here are really value investors. We want to buy cheap and sell at a higher price, yes? When the investment gears don't turn in the anticipated directions, value can become a sink hole.
Johnny Lee (Urban Cowboy movie) sang:
Lookin' for love
I've spent a lifetime looking for you
Single bars and good time lovers, never true
Playing a fools game, hoping to win
Telling those sweet lies and losing again.
I was looking for love in all the wrong places
Looking for love in too many faces
Searching your eyes, looking for traces
Of what.. I'm dreaming of...
Love/lovers being the love of an investment relative to the topic here. Sometimes folks are so in love, that they don't see and leave a bad relationship.
Regards,
Catch

Hi @Charles,
Thanks for posting how SPY & AGG has performed and split 50/50 would have performed with a return of about 5.75%. This is something that I monitor but in mutual fund form and not in etf form.
My mutual fund 50/50 portfolio that I track is up 4.4% vs. the etf 50/50 being up 4.75%. To me, this reflects that the etf is out performing due to lower cost associated with most ets today but might not reflect all investment cost if the etf's are held in a wrap account.
With some skill and luck the investment return of my portfolio (excluding cash) according to Morningstar's portfolio manager is up 5.5% year-to-date and when factoring in trading profits puts me up about another percent. With this, I am "feeling pretty good" (as Flo says in the Progressive Insurance commericals)... and, especially, when I consider the current investment climate we have all faced over the past couple of years. My engineer high school buddy, that I have reference in some previous post, is up about the same as I am as we have both at times used some adaptive allocation strategies. He uses only mutual fund of indexes within his portfolio for the S&P 500 Stock Index and the Aggerate Bond Index.
While my portfolio is more complex and offers a higher income generation his is more simplified with lower income generation with his portfolio currently slightly edging me out on a total return basis for the one, three and five year periods but not over a full market cycle of the past ten years.
We are both happy with our results as we both wear smiles on our faces. Indeed, investing has been good to both of us.

Old-Skeet I am not trying to start anything here as I have always found you legit - something that can't be said for some that post on investing and especially trading boards. But you are the only investor I have ever seen anywhere anyplace that breaks down your returns minus cash. Everyone else breaks down returns based on their total portfolio balance - cash included. I am just curious why you do this. Now you throw in "when factoring trading profits". So I guess the question is assuming no withdrawals or additions, what are you up based on 1/1/16 total balance to 7/01/16 total balance.
Edit. I guess in the spirit of full disclosure I am having a bad, a really, really bad year. After a bang up 2014 and 2015, this year I am up 5.58%. I am lagging the returns of both junk corp and junk munis. Lots of reasons for my underperformance but primarily due to a lifestyle change. The only comfort I get from my low return is my worst drawdown in 2016 has been under 0.80%. But were I to figure a YTD percentage excluding cash I would be up probably 8% to 9%, albeit it would be difficult to compute. But regardless, excluding cash seems to me to be a totally meaningless and bogus percentage.

Hi @Charles,
Thanks for posting how SPY & AGG has performed and split 50/50 would have performed with a return of about 5.75%. This is something that I monitor but in mutual fund form and not in etf form.
My mutual fund 50/50 portfolio that I track is up 4.4% vs. the etf 50/50 being up 4.75%. To me, this reflects that the etf is out performing due to lower cost associated with most ets today but might not reflect all investment cost if the etf's are held in a wrap account.
With some skill and luck the investment return of my portfolio (excluding cash) according to Morningstar's portfolio manager is up 5.5% year-to-date and when factoring in trading profits puts me up about another percent. With this, I am "feeling pretty good" (as Flo says in the Progressive Insurance commericals)... and, especially, when I consider the current investment climate we have all faced over the past couple of years. My engineer high school buddy, that I have referenced in some previous post, is up about the same as we have both at times used some adaptive allocation strategies. He uses only mutual fund of indexes within his portfolio for the S&P 500 Stock Index and the Aggerate Bond Index.
While my portfolio is more complex and offers higher income generation, his is more simplified with lower income generation with his portfolio currently slightly edging me out on a total return basis for the one, three and five year periods but not over a full market cycle of the past ten years.
We are both happy with our results as we both wear a smile on our face. Indeed, investing has been good to both of us.

Hi @Ted,
Thanks for posting this article.
I most always enjoy reading about a fund(s) that I own. This article is no exception. The two largest of six positions that I hold in my domestic equity sleeve found in the growth & income area of my portfolio are FDSAX (Sun America Focused Dividend Strategy) and SVAAX (Federated Strategic Value). Both, are indeed having great years and combined account for half of the sleeve. The other members found in this sleeve are ANCFX, INUTX, NBHAX and SPQAX.
Old_Skeet