Jack Bogle Interview on Index Funds and the bleak future for Active Managers @hank - I like Barber and Odean (the authors of the summary you cited), but as something directed toward nonacademics, the summary glosses over too much for my liking. Here's a copy of the
underlying paper:
Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors.
For example, they present the odds of picking a big eight winner as 4.1% and the odds of holding only losers as 9.6%. What they don't tell you is how much you would win or lose in each case. If I were to tell you that those were the odds, but in the first case you'd win $1000 and in the second case you'd lose $20, I think you'd be happy to play that game. It's expectation values that matter, not raw odds. By citing the latter, they are appealing to incorrect intuitions.
That's why it's important to go to the paper, which I've only briefly skimmed. You'll find their definition of monthly turnover on p. 779 (pdf p. 7). It's similar but not identical to the way funds (or at least M*) define fund portfolio turnover. Doesn't matter too much - your intuition is likely pretty close here. Yes, Dick Strong certainly set a high bar -
700%+.
From my limited exposure to Taiwan investing (talking with people when I visit), it does feel like there's more trading going on there. Sort of like Silicon Valley, where people in startups keep tabs on their options and company price.
@MJG - Zero entry cost (no load) mutual funds have been around since 1928. On p. 22 of Kiplinger's Changing Times, June 1960, you'll find a list of eight large no load funds along with an offer to get a list of a dozen smaller no loads if you'll send a dime to them. The page does note that "the only way to find a no-load fund like this is to dig into the records yourself." Entry costs were never obnoxious in your lifetime, if one knew where to look. My father owned one of the funds on the Kiplinger page which he gifted to me (UGMA) many
years later.
Dalbar keeps talking about the average investor when what it is actually talking about is the average investment dollar. Sharpe doesn't make this error when writing about how the average dollar will underperform the market by the overhead of investing, no more, no less. Which is why it isn't index vs. active that matters, but the cost of ownership. A cheap, actively managed Vanguard fund will do just fine.