Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Major budget cuts proposed for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    Tornado touchdown today in Arkansas and Trump refused to send FEMA aid.
    The Trump administration denied Republican Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders’ request for individual and public assistance following an outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes that also affected neighboring Mississippi and Missouri and left more than 40 people dead.
    The denial follows executive orders signed by Trump seeking to shift the burden of disaster response and recovery from the federal government onto states, as extreme weather becomes increasingly destructive and costly in a warming world. It is unclear how states will fill the financial void, which for decades has been viewed as a federal responsibility given the wide-reaching, multi-state nature of disasters.
    https://msn.com/en-us/news/us/tornado-victims-blocked-from-federal-recovery-aid-after-trump-denied-request/ar-AA1Du68j?ocid=BingNewsSerp
    Hurricane season is just around the corner. Several southeastern states are susceptible to them. See what this administration will do for you. Unfortunately many people will suffer needlessly.
    To Sarah Huckabee, what have you done for me lately? Probably not enough in order to get my help.
  • Just received this email. Schwab anti-trust settlement
    WIth all due respect, you seem to have a bee in your bonnet regarding Schwab. I can appreciate someone liking one's financial institution (e.g. USAA) and being upset when it is bought out by another company. I've had enough of my banks bought out from under me.
    M&As happen all the time. Customers of acquired institutions are then serviced by the acquiring institutions, which may be better or worse. But customers don't get paid for the transition. I didn't expect to see an extra interest payment in my bank account when it was acquired. And when my pharmacy was acquired, I didn't expect to see an extra dozen pills in my refill order. We're customers who can vote with their feet (as you did), not owners.
    In a literal sense M&As reduce competition (by taking one institution out of the market) but they rarely have an impact on pricing let alone attract antitrust attention from the government. When Schwab took over USAA brokerage accounts it increased the size of its client assets by not much more than a rounding error, just 2% ($80B out of $3,800B).
    That's not the kind of acquisition that provides monopolistic power. OTOH, the Ameritrade acquisition was in a whole 'nuther league: adding $1.3T in client assets to Schwab's existing $3.77T. Over a quarter of the combined company's client assets came from Ameritrade.
    Regarding robo trading, that's a different matter. Schwab is a big player (#2), but it's not the elephant in the room. That would be Vanguard, with 3x AUM of Schwab, and 4x the number of customers.
    Schwab's robo-advisor pricing structure is legal. What Schwab did wrong was falsely advertise it. As the SEC wrote in its PR headline: "Schwab Subsidiaries Misled Robo-Adviser Clients about Absence of Hidden Fees".
    "Schwab claimed that the amount of cash in its robo-adviser portfolios was decided by sophisticated economic algorithms meant to optimize its clients’ returns when in reality it was decided by how much money the company wanted to make," said Gurbir S. Grewal, Director of the SEC’s Division of Enforcement. "Schwab’s conduct was egregious and today’s action sends a clear message to advisers that they need to be transparent with clients about hidden fees and how such fees affect clients’ returns."
    https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022-104
    Schwab originated NTF fund transactions. IMHO a similar deception, but one legitimized by most brokerages copying it. "Fund marketing history tells us that 'assets are never given away and, eventually, the shareholders pay,' said William E. Donoghue, publisher of Donoghue's Money Letter, in Ashland, Mass.
    NYTimes, Mutual Funds; A Commission Break From Brokers, July 26, 1992.
  • US stock markets fall again as Trump calls Fed chair ‘a major loser’
    "Another potential consequence of Powell’s removal would be an erosion of confidence in US assets as reliable, safe havens for international investors. If the United States’ financial and political system is perceived as unstable and critical policies are unpredictable, foreign investors may demand a higher return on their money to compensate for those risks. Powell seems to have alluded to this issue in recent remarks, saying that if uncertainty remains high, 'that would weigh on investment just in general” and the US would be “less attractive as a jurisdiction.'"
    "Tang explains that in an uncertain environment, the risk premium of investing in the US should be higher. He says the implication of this is higher bond yields and lower asset prices. If the Fed is seen as unreliable or politically compromised, foreign investors could also look elsewhere—'capital flight' in Wall Street lingo."
    https://www.morningstar.com/markets/why-feds-independence-matters-markets-economy-your-wallet
  • China reportedly orders its airlines to halt Boeing jet deliveries amid US trade war
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The Guardian:
    Carriers also asked to stop purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from US firms, report says
    China has reportedly ordered its airlines not to take any further deliveries of Boeing jets, the latest move in its tit-for-tat trade war with the US. The Chinese government has asked carriers to stop purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from American companies, according to a Bloomberg News article, which cited people familiar with the matter.
    The order was reported to have come after the country raised its retaliatory tariffs on US goods to 125% on Friday in response to Donald Trump’s levies on Chinese imports totaling 145%. Beijing was also said to be considering ways to support airlines that lease Boeing jets and are facing higher costs.
    About 10 Boeing 737 Max jets are being prepared to join Chinese airlines, and if delivery paperwork and payment on some of them were completed before Chinese ”reciprocal” tariffs came into effect, the planes may be allowed to enter the country, sources told Bloomberg.
    The restriction marks a serious blow for Boeing and other manufacturers trying to navigate the escalating trade war between the world’s two biggest economies.
    The group chief executive of the budget airline Ryanair, Michael O’Leary, has said his company could delay taking deliveries of Boeing aircraft if they become more expensive. He told the Financial Times that Ryanair was due to receive a further 25 aircraft from Boeing from August but would not need the planes until around March or April 2026. “We might delay them and hope that common sense will prevail,” O’Leary said.
    Shares in Boeing have been buffeted by worries about the impact of trade tariffs, as well as complaints from some shareholders that the company has underinvested in its engineering. The company has lost 7% of its market value since the start of the year, and in March its chief financial officer, Brian West, said tariffs could hit availability of parts from its suppliers.
    The rival European plane manufacturer Airbus said on Tuesday that it was watching the evolving situation on trade tariffs. Its chief executive, Guillaume Faury, told shareholders the company was having problems receiving components from the American supplier Spirit AeroSystems, which was weighing on the production of its A350 and A220 jetliners.
    Boeing was approached for comment.

    Comment: Boeing has lost 7% of its market value since the start of the year, with potentially a lot worse to follow. @FD1000 notwithstanding, this would seem to qualify as an investment consideration.
  • Don’t Buy "Easy Fix" for Stock-Market Craziness
    "With the stock and bond markets stumbling in unison, investment firms and financial advisers
    are pushing so-called alternative funds harder than ever."

    "Many institutional investors, glutted with private assets, are twiddling their thumbs waiting to get their money out. Private-equity firms are sitting on more than 29,000 companies, valued at $3.6 trillion, that they can’t unload. Returns for many alternatives have stagnated. Why buy what these folks are trying to dump?"
    "Over the 10 years through June 30, 2024, the median endowment earned a 6.7% annualized total return net of fees, according to the 2024 NACUBO-Commonfund Study of Endowments. That was far behind the 12.8% annualized total return of the S&P 500 over the same period—and not much better than an ETF with 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds, which grew at 5.9% annually."
    "Many of these institutions have privileged access to the world’s best managers of alternative assets—
    yet barely managed to beat out a boring, dirt-cheap ETF."

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/don-t-buy-into-this-easy-fix-for-stock-market-craziness/ar-AA1DbLkK
  • WealthTrack Show
    April 11th Episode:
    Managing investment risk has never been more important. Award-winning financial advisor Mark Cortazzo shares his strategies for avoiding, transferring and mitigating market risk to avoid permanent losses.


  • Gatsby and U.S. Monetary Policy - (Randall Forsyth Column)
    Randall Forsyth writing in Barron’s this week -
    Forsyth mocks a recent government accounting gimmick designed to hide the full extent of the U.S. budget deficit, recalling a famous but ill-fated British effort to cope with a financial problem a century ago: “The 1925 decision to restore the pound’s parity was favored by the City of London establishment, with economist John Maynard Keynes providing a rare dissent because of the damage he correctly anticipated to the British economy. Sterling would be restored as a major international reserve currency, but its global importance, and that of Great Britain, would never regain their former greatness.”
    The article examines how the trade wars may affect U.S. investors - in stocks and bonds alike. Forsyth cites T.S. Lombard’s global head of macro trading who thinks firing Powell would pave the way for a loss of faith in the Dollar as the world’s reserve currency. He also delves into global ship building, relative naval power - and much more.
    In all of this Forsyth finds parallels to Scott Fitzgerald’s 100-year old classic The Great Gatsby
    Opening : ”This April marks the centennials of the publication of F Scott Fitzgerald's masterpiece, The Great Gatsby. On Long Island, the setting for the novel, much has changed. The fictional West Egg, the putatively less prestigious village just over the border from Queens, today is filled with mansions rivaling Gatsby's own along Manhasset Bay. On the bay's other side, in East Egg, where the green light shone at the end of Daisy Buchanan's dock, the few remaining legendary Gold Coast estates now are public museums or village facilities. The former old-money families, including the Guggenheims, Harrimans, and Vanderbilts, have been supplanted by entrepreneur billionaires who founded companies such as Home Depot and Arizona Iced Tea.”
    Closing: ”For now, the parties continue … To paraphrase Fitzgerald, we are careless people, willing to smash things up, including the status of the dollar”.
    Sourced From:U.S. Spending Threatens the Dollar’s Status. Wake Up, America
    By Randall W. Forsyth - Barron’s April 18, 2025
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/16/25
    Hmm, I think we disagree quite a bit on all that.
    I think the extreme pessimism is highly warranted and appropriate now and for the next 3 years, 9 months, if he manages to hold the office to term.
    We're only three months in and he's already managed to bring markets and economies to the brink of destruction. And he now had Powell in his cross-hairs in an attempt to save his insane fiscal policies.
    With all than, AND having endured his 1.0 act, IMO, we are effectively sitting on a ticking time bomb.
    capecod, former major league bond trader, CEF savant, and one of the most legendary investment forum posters of all-time, also has a different take. Though he would likely never invest in a CD, he always has regarded (paraphrasing) "meaningful diversification as investment in anything that guarantees a positive total return."
    If I scope all taxable bond OEFs available at Fido, I find there are 1802 splattered over 19 pages. If I sort them by "Worst to Best" performance for example 5 years, I find there are 12.5/19 pages that have TRs of LESS than the APY of my 5-yr CD ladder. 3 years, 15.5/19 pages with TRs LESS than.
    That ain't "meaningful diversification" to me.
    So, to an investor like me, who regards bonds pretty much as a 4-letter word and at one time, a necessary evil, I decided to AVOID dedicated bond funds after their last great crash, except for some small toeholds in 3 low risk finds that I recently bought with stock sale proceeds.
    So basically in the past coupla years I exchanged our dedicated bond fund allocation for a 5-yr CD ladder.
    I don't have to "hope" (as, IMO, most average bond fund investor do, yourself of course excluded) for annual TRs of 4%-5% from that sleeve. I don't have to "hope' the bond funds I select will be in the minority of dedicated bond funds that outperform my CD ladder. I get 5+% guaranteed, FDIC'd, with Rolex-clocklike interest payments, and full return of my principal at maturity.
    And if history at least rhymes, our CD ladder will outperform over time, over 50% of all bond funds available at Fido. Meanwhile, we will, as always, continue to make our real investment money in stocks.
    Maybe I misunderstood you, but if not, how is this strategy NOT investing? By definition, we're committing money to earn a financial return.
  • Investors dodge U.S. dollar and Treasurys, scared by Trump’s trade war
    "...As America dithered, the shock could spread from Treasuries to the rest of the financial system, bringing defaults and hedge-fund blow-ups. That is the sort of behaviour you would expect in an emerging market……“
    We're already flirting with this stuff, given the political turmoil-nonsense-craziness. And people are suffering not just in terms of their money.
  • Investors dodge U.S. dollar and Treasurys, scared by Trump’s trade war
    Post from Joerg Wuttke, a partner of Partner at DGA Albright Stonebridge Group
    Worrisome possibility:
    „.. Foreigners own $8.5trn of government debt, a bit under a third of the total; more than half of that is held by private investors, who cannot be cajoled by diplomacy or threatened with tariffs. America must refinance $9trn of debt over the next year. If demand for Treasuries weakens, the impact will quickly feed through to the budget, which, owing to high debts and short maturities, is sensitive to interest rates.
    What would Congress do then? When markets collapsed during the global financial crisis and the pandemic, it acted forcefully. But those crises required it to spend, not to impose cuts. This time it would need to take an axe to entitlements and raise taxes quickly. You need only consider the make-up of Congress and the White House to see that the markets might have to impose a lot of pain before the government could agree on what to do. As America dithered, the shock could spread from Treasuries to the rest of the financial system, bringing defaults and hedge-fund blow-ups. That is the sort of behaviour you would expect in an emerging market……“
    https://linkedin.com/posts/joerg-wuttke-8a10ab8_how-a-dollar-crisis-would-unfold-activity-7318366116429398017-rEFw
    Economists has a related article, How a dollar crisis would unfold. Sorry it is behind a paywall. A short excerpt from the article,
    A currency is only as good as the government that backs it. The longer America’s political system fails to grapple with its deficits or flirts with chaotic or discriminatory rules, the more likely will be a once-in-a-generation upheaval that pushes the global financial system into the unknown. Wherever things settled, the greenback’s diminished role would be a tragedy for America. True, some exporters would benefit from a weaker currency. But the dollar’s primacy reduces the cost of capital for everyone, from first-time homebuyers to blue-chip firms.
    Biting the hand that funds
    The world would suffer because the dollar has no equal—just pale imitations. The euro is backed by a big economy, but the euro zone does not produce enough safe assets. Switzerland is safe but small. Japan is big, but has its own vast debts. Gold and cryptocurrencies lack state backing. As investors tried one asset and then another, the hunt for safety could bring about destabilising booms and busts. The dollar system is not perfect, but it provides the stable ground on which today’s globalised economy is built. When investors doubt America’s creditworthiness, those foundations are in danger of cracking.
    https://economist.com/leaders/2025/04/16/how-a-dollar-crisis-would-unfold
    @Old_Joe, please continue with your invaluable daily posting. The world of economic is complex and they are intertwined with many factors. To be an informed investors, it is necessary to understand these factors in order to mitigate the forthcoming risk.
    @hank and @Observanr1, thank you for your contribution.
  • Bond yields leap connected to sell-off
    Two comments.
    Volatility creates opportunities.
    Injecting daily politics as a basis for investment analysis isn't a good choice.

    Heightened volatility due to massive uncertainty increases the likelihood of a serious
    "accident."
    It's unwise to ignore the ramifications of executive branch actions which forcefully inject politics
    into the business/economic realms.
    Excellent post!
    Investors who ignore the economic and market impacts of politics for the next 3+ years effectively ignore the extremely heightened risk of their personal financial doom. That is, IF you believe that silly little things like tariffs, Treasurys and Benjamins have any real impact on the economy or markets.
    You gotta wonder if certain posters have even heard the term "fiscal policy" let alone know what it means/does.
  • Investors dodge U.S. dollar and Treasurys, scared by Trump’s trade war
    The IMF reports that the US dollar's role as a reserve currency has gradually declined over the last two decades.
    Interestingly, this decline was not matched by increases for the euro, yen, or pound.
    "Dollar dominance—the outsized role of the US dollar in the world economy—has been brought into focus recently as the robustness of the US economy, tighter monetary policy and heightened geopolitical risk have contributed to a higher greenback valuation. At the same time, economic fragmentation and the potential reorganization of global economic and financial activity into separate, nonoverlapping blocs could encourage some countries to use and hold other international and reserve currencies."
    "Recent data from the IMF’s Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) point to an ongoing gradual decline in the dollar’s share of allocated foreign reserves of central banks and governments. Strikingly, the reduced role of the US dollar over the last two decades has not been matched by increases in the shares of the other 'big four' currencies—the euro, yen, and pound. Rather, it has been accompanied by a rise in the share of what we have called nontraditional reserve currencies, including the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Chinese renminbi, South Korean won, Singaporean dollar, and the Nordic currencies. The most recent data extend this trend, which we had pointed out in an earlier IMF paper and blog."
    https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/06/11/dollar-dominance-in-the-international-reserve-system-an-update
  • Investors dodge U.S. dollar and Treasurys, scared by Trump’s trade war
    Oh - It involves much more than the relative value of the dollar vs other currencies on the FX. We’ve had a weak dollar at times during the past 75 years while the reserve status remained intact. I can’t ever remember it being seriously questioned in my lifetime.
    As the source here cited explains, the reserve currency status has been conferred on the U.S. Dollar since the end of WW II by other nations largely because of the size of its economy, its ability to issue debt, its respected financial regulatory system, its geopolitical power and - yes - by the stability of the currency. If you told me several of those requisites were in decline, I’d not argue with you, but let’s acknowledge that a somewhat diminished value of the dollar (vs other currencies) by itself is not enough to cause a loss of the reserve status.
    Thanks for the linked podcast @Observant1 / Listened to it partially. I’m a big fan of Reuters and a subscriber.
  • Investors dodge U.S. dollar and Treasurys, scared by Trump’s trade war
    I recently posted the following in another thread.
    The US has the exorbitant privilege of the dollar being the world's reserve currency.
    No other currency in history has been so globally dominant.
    Foreign exchange reserves are most often denominated in US dollars.
    Three quarters of global trade and 85% of all currency swaps involve dollars.
    Recent policy actions have incentivized governments, central banks,
    and financial institutions to question their dependence on the dollar.
    The podcast features an informative discussion with Paul Blustein who authored
    "King Dollar: The Past and Future of the World’s Dominant Currency."
    Podcast
  • Investors dodge U.S. dollar and Treasurys, scared by Trump’s trade war
    @FD1000: Please pay no attention to this information- it obviously has no connection to investing whatsoever.
    Below are excerpts from a current report in The Washington Post:
    The dollar has lost almost 10 percent of its value since Inauguration Day with more than half of that decline coming this month.
    image
    The U.S. dollar is an early casualty of President Donald Trump’s us-against-the-world trade war. The dollar has lost almost 10 percent of its value since Inauguration Day, with more than half of decline coming this month after the president’s decision to lift taxes on imported goods to their highest level since 1909.
    The weaker dollar — now near a three-year low against the euro — is bad news for Americans traveling abroad and could also aggravate inflation by making foreign goods more expensive. U.S. exporters, however, should gain.
    “The administration’s approach to policy and its lack of transparency in terms of motivations have all led to a distinct sense of unease in financial markets,” said David Page, head of macro research for Axa Investment Managers in London, which manages $1 trillion in investments. “It doesn’t look like what we have been used to in terms of well-thought-out policy.”
    Those concerns last week sent investors fleeing from the dollar and U.S. government securities, historically a haven during financial crises. This week, after markets quieted, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed those concerns. In an interview Monday with Bloomberg Television, he said there was “no evidence” that foreign investors were abandoning U.S. assets, saying they had been active participants in recent auctions of government debt.
    “The dollar is incredibly entrenched in the global financial system in ways that no other currency is. Importing, exporting, borrowing, hedging, using the dollar for collateral, all of these things that major actors in the international economic system use the dollar for, would be so difficult to modify,” said Paul Blustein, author of “King Dollar: The Past and Future of the World’s Dominant Currency.”
    As the president’s enthusiasm for tariffs made the United States look riskier, investments in other markets became more attractive. In Europe, the German government last month abandoned a constitutional borrowing limit and made plans to spend heavily to spur the economy and fund a military buildup, raising growth prospects. China encouraged higher consumer spending to better balance its export-heavy economic model. And Japanese 10-year government debt offered its highest return in 15 years.
    Recent gains by the Swiss franc, the euro, Japanese yen and gold, which is up more than 7 percent in the past five trading days, support the idea that investors are looking for new ways to ride out the turmoil unleashed by the president.
    Yet for major institutional investors, giving up on the dollar is not feasible. The $28 trillion Treasury market is the world’s largest and most liquid, meaning that investors can quickly sell their holdings if they need to raise cash. In contrast, there are only $1.4 trillion in German government bonds outstanding. Alternative currencies likewise fall short. The Chinese yuan is assuming a greater role in global commerce. But the Chinese government does not allow capital to move freely across its borders, meaning investors could find their funds trapped.
    The euro also is handicapped. Nations that use the euro share a central bank in Frankfurt, which governs the zone’s monetary policy. But they lack a common fiscal authority akin to the U.S. Treasury and a common bond market.
    Even if the era of global dollar supremacy survives the trade war, the currency’s short-term outlook might be poor. Trump’s imposition of widespread tariffs has made a recession more likely, economists say, which could hurt stock prices and prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. That would make investing in dollar-based assets less appealing.
  • Policy Financial Implications
    The US has the exorbitant privilege of the dollar being the world's reserve currency.
    No other currency in history has been so globally dominant.
    Foreign exchange reserves are most often denominated in US dollars.
    Three quarters of global trade and 85% of all currency swaps involve dollars.
    Recent policy actions have incentivized governments, central banks,
    and financial institutions to question their dependence on the dollar.
    Podcast
  • Bond yields leap connected to sell-off
    For those who don’t know, this is how it is done. DT was backed into a corner and had no choice. He was beaten.
    "Let’s talk about the moment Donald Trump blinked. It wasn’t loud. It wasn’t a tweetstorm or a rally rant. When the tariff threats that had the world on edge — 125% on China, 25% on Canada’s autos, a global trade war in the making — suddenly softened. A 'pause,' he called it. A complete turnaround from the chest-thumping of the past week. And the reason? Mark Carney and a slow, deliberate financial maneuver that most people didn’t even notice: the coordinated Treasury bond slow bleed.
    This wasn’t about bravado. It was about leverage. Cold, calculated, and devastatingly effective.
    Trump’s pause wasn’t because people were getting yippy…
    Rewind a bit. While Trump was gearing up his trade war machine, Carney, Canada’s Prime Minister, wasn’t just sitting in Ottawa twiddling his thumbs. He’d been quietly increasing Canada’s holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds—over $350 billion worth by early 2025, part of the $8.53 trillion foreign countries hold in U.S. debt. On the surface, it looked like a safe play, a hedge against economic chaos. But it wasn’t just defense. It was a loaded gun.
    Carney didn’t stop there. He took his case to Europe. Not for photo ops, but for closed-door meetings with the EU’s heavy hitters — Germany, France, the Netherlands. Japan was in the room too, listening closely. The pitch was simple: if Trump went too far with tariffs, Canada wouldn’t just retaliate with duties on American cars or steel. It would start offloading those Treasury bonds. Not a fire sale — nothing so crude. A slow, steady bleed. A signal to the markets that the U.S. dollar’s perch wasn’t so secure.
    ---Dean Blundell, Canadian radio host. Some might say, "shock-jock." But even a broken clock is correct, twice per day.
  • Bond yields leap connected to sell-off
    Good post @Crash
    For sure. Liquidity issues among some big players were rumored last week. Shortage of cash in the system to cover losses. Perhaps the “elephant in the room” owing to the amount of leverage / speculation in the system. Credit markets were primed. T just lit the fuse.
    Story: Fed official says Fed ready to intervene if necessary.
    Here’s an earlier link to the FT posted in a different thread by @equalizer
  • Let the Exemptions Begin!
    It's interesting when people use pretzel logic in an attempt to somehow justify Trump's terrible tariffs.
    The tariff "plan" is clearly absurd (e.g., rate calculations, taxing uninhabited islands)
    and it was implemented haphazardly. Communication from administration officials regarding tariffs
    was often either nonexistant or contradictory. Most credible economists and financial professionals
    believe the end result will be higher inflation, increased unemployment, and lower GDP.
    Regardless of how some people "spin" these tariffs, it was an extremely imprudent act
    which heightened global financial risks and alienated major US allies.
    The art of reasoning is an art which often take decades to acquire.
    The same spin you guys used about the southern border being closed and the Prez is in great shape and runs the country. This is why all these threads belong in the OFF TOPIC forum.
    There are 5-6 posters that fill out the investment forums daily, and that's why we don't discuss investing as much.
    The other investing forum is still about investing, not politics.