From the description: Whether you're steeped in quantitative finance or just curious how modern markets really work, this talk offers a simplified (and powerful) lens for understanding the mathematics behind the money.
It's local, but if you're in the area next week, it sounds very interesting. Well, to me, anyway :-) The Museum of Mathematics is focused on making math accessible and fun (yes, really) to all people. Including, e.g. Mark Hamill (use the math, Luke, the math):

MoMath is pleased to announce the 2025 edition of Simplified, a lecture honoring the memory of Peter Carr, a Founding Trustee of the National Museum of Mathematics.
The Black-Scholes-Merton model transformed finance by showing how to value an option using expected payoff and stochastic calculus. But just five years later, Stephen Ross proved that no probability was required at all — just a careful accounting of prices and cash flows over time. In this talk, Keith Lewis revisits and extends Ross’s breakthrough, offering a clean, intuitive framework for understanding derivative valuation. By treating cash flows and prices as equal components of any trading strategy, Lewis shows how we can model and manage risk without heavy technical machinery. Whether you're steeped in quantitative finance or just curious how modern markets really work, this talk offers a simplified (and powerful) lens for understanding the mathematics behind the money.

Thurs, Dec 11 6:30-8:00
225 5th Ave, NYC
Registration required (free)
https://momath.org/simplified/

@hank- Where you at? I'm up to where FDR has just taken office and Mitchell is in big trouble.

I'm in December '29. Muddle through around a chapter a night (audiobook version). ISTM Hoover has been in denial a while. Many are blaming the Fed for allowing speculation to run rampant in the years leading up ...

My own owned ETF is an iShares beast connected to BlackRock. I'm wondering what will happen to my stake in EWS. Paying a fee to buy, sell or add shares is a no-go for me.

Fidelity and iShares have a partnership deal that goes back around 15 years, before Fidelity created its own ETFs (aside from ONEQ), before brokerages started selling stocks and ETFs commission-free.
Part of that partnership is to offer iShares NTF. Even if every broker starts charging fees to trade ETFs, the big ETF players will still be cutting deals like this. This tends to support yogi's speculation that only the boutique firms will be subject to ETF fees by brokerages.
https://www.etftrends.com/2013/03/fidelity-ishares-expand-etf-partnership-what-does-it-mean/ (2013)
Another part of the Fidelity/iShares deal is that Fidelity will push iShares. You can see the favored status that Fidelity gives iShares on its ETF research page. It highlights Fidelity and iShares ETF only.
https://digital.fidelity.com/prgw/digital/research/etf
I figure this is something like the deal that Schwab has with marketing T. Rowe Price funds.
https://riabiz.com/a/2022/4/19/t-rowe-price-gains-house-brand-status-on-schwabs-active-fund-platform-and-will-pay-up-to-10-million-yearly-for-the-honor-but-the-deal-is-not-without-potential-conflicts-of-interest

An interesting line of reasoning from @DrVenture with thoughtful suggestions which have merit.
"I'd like to hear ideas, thoughts, even helpful criticisms. Maybe we can form some more detailed plans/ideas?"
I'm left at this point with many more questions than answers. Some might be disposed to flee to an asset that's tripled in price over the past 3 or 4 years. Not convinced of that escape route either. One thing I'm fairly certain of: There will be more and higher inflation.
PS - Should go without saying that the current game plan is to stimulate the hell out of the economy up until the 2026 mid-terms, now less than a year away. The new Fed chief will quarterback. Look for some giveaways like "tariff rebate checks" to enter the discussion or even come to fruition.
Now back to 1929.

I totally agree. It is frustrating to watch. Nothing that we can probably do.
Except, maybe use this information/observation to avoid losses or parlay to a buying opportunity. Similar to Dotcom or the Great Recession or 2022s inflation. , if one is very certain that a big reckoning is coming, they must be ways to use that effectively.
My notions are:
•Reduce risk exposure significantly. After 3 years of phenomenal gains, stepping back shouldn't be too hard to swallow.
•Identify the best no/low risk parking positions. Perhaps, quality bond funds with a track record in difficult times?
•Look to quality fixed income that might benefit from rate reductions, despite inflationary pressures.
•Find alternative investments best suited to weather this particular set of circumstances.
•Wait for an appropriate re-entry point to riskier assets.
I'd like to hear ideas, thoughts, even helpful criticisms. Maybe we can form some more detailed plans/ideas?

nice. monthly flows tool still just through october. but here's spym on flow tool through last friday ... how to attract $56B in just three years.

i'm going to take a much easier approach to this. If i remember correctly these funds were closed for some time. they opened them mid 2024. more flows out than in has transpired at a pretty significant clip.
per the N-Port filing 2 months after reopening, there was 78B AUM in VPMAX. the AUM of the fund if nothing changed, no new investments, no new w/d, would be 97 billion dollars. However today there is 76B in AUM.
over 1/5 of the could be value of this fund is gone through new money not making up for redemptions.
My FIL was a long time VPMAX investor. over 30 years. When we talked about it i just spitballed that Vanguard is a index company now. the redemptions are people like my FIL who are retired and moving that money around. When he retired he hired a new advisor beause his was also retiring. they all basically use model portfolios now so he had to sell out of his VPMAX that was long held in a 401k then moved to IRA.
Opening it attracted no new money because people go to vanguard to invest in index funds. So IMO these funds are probably doomed regardless of performance. Had they opened sooner (and opened ETF versions), I think there would be a generation of people who would have started investing in them and continued. But I think we are passed that. dropping ER's 2bps is not going to save them.

The piece says that Fidelity makes "15% of what ETF issuers get or a $100 transaction fee charged to investors." It links to another page on the same site that clarifies(?): "ETF issuers are required to share 15% of their revenue with Fidelity for access to its customers, or face a stiff $100 levy on orders."
Stock trading remains free. What is the difference? Brokerages can make money on stocks by lending them out, but ETFs can be lent out as well. Or at least they could in 2017 when this brochure was written.
The main difference I see is that ETFs, like other funds, have a revenue source from investors (expense ratio) that brokerages can tap into. Many ETFs already have 12b-1 fees in their filings, though they are currently set at 0.00%. This suggests that the industry has expected for years to be charged shelf space, and can turn these fees on quickly.
For example, from the SAI for several of Fidelity's ETFs:

The Trustees have approved Distribution and Service Plans with respect to shares of each fund (the Plans) pursuant to Rule 12b-1 under the 1940 Act (the Rule).
The Rule provides in substance that a fund may not engage directly or indirectly in financing any activity that is primarily intended to result in the sale of shares of the fund except pursuant to a plan approved on behalf of the fund under the Rule.
The Plans, as approved by the Trustees, allow shares of the funds and/or FMR to incur certain expenses that might be considered to constitute indirect payment by the funds of distribution expenses.

Howdy folks,
Couple of things. First, here's a FB post by my friend Pat Heller who founded Liberty Coin here in Lansing. It explains things much better than I, but please understand that he is a gold bug. That said, I've dealt with him for over 40 years and trust him explicitly.
"In early trading in Asian markets Monday December 1, silver has jumped above $57.
If Liberty Coin Service were open, here were the bid and ask spot prices as of a couple minutes ago at which we would be buying and selling physical precious metals:
Gold: bid spot price $4,219.25/ask spot price $4,225.75
Silver: $56.75/$57.25
Platinum: $1,661.00/$1,693.00
Palladium: $1,453.00/$1,495.00
There are huge orders totaling more than 36 million ounces called for immediate delivery of physical silver (representing 4-5% of annual worldwide silver mine output). We are not sure whether this is in the Shanghai or COMEX markets right now. A larger quantity was called for delivery in April, but exchanges had more physical silver available for delivery then. There is a heightened risk that there could be a default in silver derivative contracts if short sellers are unable to find enough physical silver to meet their delivery commitments.
Should there be defaults in the silver derivative contracts, that increases the risk this could happen with gold derivatives next, then every other kind of derivative contracts.
Derivative contracts were established in the 1970s as a means to manipulate markets and hold down gold and silver prices without the need to have physical metal to back up the manipulation. I don't mean to be alarmist, but widespread defaults on derivative contracts could ultimately lead to the collapse of the US dollar and many other world currencies.
Now is the time to make sure you own physical gold and silver in your direct custody or in segregated vault storage under your own name.
If you think you own gold or silver because you own shares of gold or silver exchange traded funds or stored in vaults with unallocated storage, you are at risk of not owning anything. As fast as you can, you should look into taking delivery of metals in unallocated storage in vaults or selling off your gold or silver ETF shares and replacing with physical metals is your direct custody or in segregated storage in precious metals vaults that are not affiliated with banks.
Remember, under current US laws, banks that suffer major losses from derivative contracts they hold are allowed to seize and keep customer cash balances. If you have accounts at banks that trade derivative contracts (which includes virtually all major banks), you should investigate transferring such accounts to credit unions or to smaller banks that don't trade derivatives for their own account.
Liberty Coin Service will open for trading Monday, December 1 at 9:30 AM Eastern."
Here also is a story from regular news
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/0cc223e6-1c4e-3385-b1a4-e78ce1d6a2f3/silver-hits-record-high-on.html
Just for the record, I am STILL scaling into my momentum play.
BTW, sorry for the faux pas posting. Sometimes, I revert to a loaded and loose Marine Sergeant on R&R in Bangkok back in '69.
and so it goes,
peace,
rono

It seems that there are Waymo cars everywhere in SF... just tons of them. And I watch them closely when near one, trying to evaluate how they handle themselves in heavy traffic, and especially in quickly developing unanticipated situations- other drivers making stupid moves, etc.
I have to tell you that I've been very impressed- these things react quickly, are very aware of what's going on around them, and are very good at signalling their intentions for lane changes. I've seen them evaluating a lane change, signalling for that, and then quickly changing their "minds" if the traffic in the intended lane tightened up and made the change "iffy".
In an earlier life in SF I drove a Yellow cab for a couple of years while I was taking flying lessons, so I tend to base driving evaluation on that experience plus traffic "separation" instincts from my years as an air traffic controller. Waymos do just fine, at least so far.
Based on news reports I have no such an opinion with respect to Tesla. My own primary basic driving rule is "if you can't see, don't do it." This allows, I'll admit, for occasional maneuvers that might not meet the DMV rules.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2025/09/09/presidency-boosts-trumps-net-worth-by-3-billion-in-a-year/
Donald Trump just had the most lucrative year of his life. His net worth is now estimated at $7.3 billion, up from $4.3 billion in 2024, when he was still running for office. That $3 billion jump moved him up 118 spots on The Forbes 400, placing him at No. 201 this year. So even if he lost a billion, he’d still be doing just fine. I’m glad you’re keeping track of his finances.
The Obamas have also seen significant financial growth over the years.
And here’s a true story: my SIL works for a major Silicon Valley company. They had booked Michelle Obama for a presentation at a rate of $300K for a 90 minute talk. Michelle arrived late, spoke for only about 20 minutes, and still demanded full payment threatening to go public and accuse the company of DEI bias if they didn’t comply. Quite an act of “class,” I suppose.
Millions flowed to the Biden family via opaque deals.
Turns out we can agree on one thing: our politicians are corrupt.

Just discovered the fantastic Search Function. Am I the last to find feature? Just enter a fund you are excited about and get the view from ten years ago. It’s the opposite of recency bias. Very useful. Thanks MFO.

Junkster: When any indicator, including sentiment, reaches never before or rarely before seen levels that is as good a buy signal as you could want. We had two of those last Thursday and Friday. Check this thread where I mentioned them. Also I know several traders who have been very successful using the CNN Fear and Greed index as a buy signal when it reaches single digits and synthesizing that with other indicators. Good traders are into synthesizing a variety of indicators into a coherent trading plan. Trading is not easy and anyone who tells you it is, is a crook, con man, and charlatan.

And that’s exactly what we should be discussing. Posting weekly indicators without any interpretation is just that, raw data. No one ever said this would be easy. I’ve been making calls for years, though I no longer do so on this site. These unique situations only come up a few times a year, and that’s precisely why they matter.
Buy signals are generally easier to identify—though still not easy—than sell signals, especially after a major decline. My inbox was filled with articles urging people to sell stocks a couple of weeks ago, but I said to simply hold. Most of these commentators have been saying the same things for years. When the market drops just 4–5%, you suddenly see a flood of negative articles; when stocks go up, they pivot to talking about bubbles and overvaluation.
Often, markets decline because of truly unique situations:
2008: MBS crisis
2018: The Fed raised rates 3–4 times
2020: COVID
2022: The Fed committed to rapid rate hikes after inflation surged
2025: Liberation Day
These are the kinds of events that move markets: rare, specific, and often unpredictable.

AAII Bull-Bear Spread
CNN Fear & Greed Index
NYSE %Above 50-dMA
SP500 %Above 50-dMA
The Death-cross, see (link).
Can PE, PE10(CAPE), the economy, recessions, M2, inverted yield, high valuation, interest rates, GDP, inflation, high demand, demographic, Bullish sentiments, EARNINGS, the "experts"...predict STOCKS PERFORMANCE in the next 1-4-8 weeks(many times longer than that)? See (link).
None of the above can predict markets accurately in the next 1-4-16 weeks. Some of these are too early or too late, and some can be off for years too.
There is nothing here about YBB, which is a valuable poster. These are just facts.

When any indicator, including sentiment, reaches never before or rarely before seen levels that is as good a buy signal as you could want. We had two of those last Thursday and Friday. Check this thread where I mentioned them. Also I know several traders who have been very successful using the CNN Fear and Greed index as a buy signal when it reaches single digits and synthesizing that with other indicators. Good traders are into synthesizing a variety of indicators into a coherent trading plan. Trading is not easy and anyone who tells you it is, is a crook, con man, and charlatan.

AAII Bull-Bear Spread
CNN Fear & Greed Index
NYSE %Above 50-dMA
SP500 %Above 50-dMA
The Death-cross, see (link).
Can PE, PE10(CAPE), the economy, recessions, M2, inverted yield, high valuation, interest rates, GDP, inflation, high demand, demographic, Bullish sentiments, EARNINGS, the "experts"...predict STOCKS PERFORMANCE in the next 1-4-8 weeks(many times longer than that)? See (link).
None of the above can predict markets accurately in the next 1-4-16 weeks. Some of these are too early or too late, and some can be off for years too.
There is nothing here about YBB, which is a valuable poster. These are just facts.

" It is refreshing to have an established bond analyst to discuss the process of exploring various sectors of bonds and their inefficiencies."
But I don't see why we need an "established bond analyst" when we already have FD1000.

Well, if your toilet ain’t working, do you want a

general therapist who claims to know a lot about everything from gutter repair to toasters? Or do you want a dedicated plumber with all the right tools?

"great" post.
Since retirement I have been in at least 95% bonds. In the last 3.5 years, I have been in 99+%.
The images below, which I copied directly from Schwab, show I made 11.4% since 1-1-2018 and 11. 8% in the last 5 years.
Go ahead and find a bond fund that beat the above performance and never lost more than 1% from any last top.
https://ibb.co/yn39KpsC
https://ibb.co/27w1XV1w
My toilet is flushing pretty well.

Howdy folks,
Silver continues to shine relative to all else, particularly gold. YTD, gold is up ~55% while silver is up ~74%. Geez, silver was up almost 5% Wednesday and another 6% today. Silver is crushing due to a lack of supply in the face of enormous demand for physical bullion. This is putting pressure on both the COMEX and particularly LME (London). You see there are two distinct markets in precious metals - paper and physical. Silver has been in severe backwardation for quite a while now with demand for physical bullion outstripping the paper trade. Historically, most paper contracts are simply rolled over when due, but now folks are actually demanding the real metal. 'How dare you! ' December is a delivery month and there is a severe shortage of actual silver bullion available to fulfill the contracts.
Some 70% of new silver comes as a byproduct of other mining such as lead, zinc and copper. This makes it very hard to scale up production in the short run. In addition, silver has enormous industrial demand - solar, EVs, circuitry, photography, medicine, reflective uses, etc. That puts a huge floor under the price.
https://silverinstitute.org/silver-in-industry/
On the demand side, you have the debasement trade and that's happening with the Central and Sovereign banks and folks that don't care for the smell of things.
Rather than default, I suspect both exchanges are going to be willing to pay most any price for bullion. This should manifest itself over the next few weeks. We'll see.
I'm just a old momentum investor who has been stacking silver for going on 70 years. This is my 3rd bull market and I'm right now I'm in a constant state of multiple orgasms. Hell, I can't even stand up in mixed company.
For paper metals, I trust Sprott and do NOT trust the basic bullion ETFs such as SLV. Nope, nope, nope. While physical possession is ideal, most of us augment that with paper bullion and miners.
Right now I'm riding SLVR, SGDJ, PSLV, CEF, SILJ. Note that most of these are miners. I particularly like the juniors and penny stocks. Nose bleed stuff for sure . . . but WTF we only live once.
and so it goes,
peace,
rono

I’ve always maintained (in agreement with Jacobson) that bonds were more complex and more difficult to understand than stocks. And many who speak with an air of authority know much less than they think they do about bonds. Wanna pull up all the bond related 2020 threads and see how many were predicting an epic bond blowoff 1-2 years out? Jacobson more or less side stepped the larger issues with stocks like transparency, economic cycles, being superseded by new technology (ie Kodak), and the euphoria around individual stocks or segments of the market that can arise and persist for years if not decades.
What he and others here have said about bond indexes vs managed funds agrees with what I’ve heard. However, you take on more manager risk with actively managed bond funds. When the going gets tough you might be more inclined to blame the manager and bail, whereas it’s pretty hard to fault an index. And for at least some investors the lower fee bond indexes are not a bad idea, My plain vanilla is AGZD, which tracks an index of rate-hedged high quality bonds, is good enough for my needs. Transparency? ISTM there’s less with a managed bond fund then an index - at least in the higher quality realms..
There was a nice line in the interview about the rare breed who succeeds at successfully timing junk bond markets. Reminded me of one of our own.

" It is refreshing to have an established bond analyst to discuss the process of exploring various sectors of bonds and their inefficiencies."
But I don't see why we need an "established bond analyst" when we already have FD1000.

As usual, your sarcasm is wrong. Several posters offered great bond options over the years, except you, of course.
If you listened to M* and/or many analysts, you would miss the best options.
====================
Eric Jacobson did mention small-medium shops as good opportunities.

Marinate that turkey in plain yogurt for 24 hours and you'll never go back to any other method. Been cooking it that way for at least fifteen years.
Hmm. I wonder if it's too soon to make a turkey sandwich.